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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No worries. I'd view accuracy and fairness as two separate things. Fairness, to me, is relative; even without 100% perfect accuracy or consistency in every condition (and not just human umps, but also field dimensions, weather, etc.), I still think the game is virtually 100% fair among teams and players right now. Not that there's anything wrong with also pursuing more accuracy. But if it doesn't impact my view of the fairness of the game, I think it's also "fair" to consider other factors in that pursuit.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Gameday uses Statcast, and they have the ball slightly overlapping the edge of the line, which is what I though I saw on TV too: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/twins-vs-orioles/2019/04/21/564939#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=play-by-play,game=564939 Brooks Baseball uses PitchF/X (Statcast predecessor) and mysteriously doesn't show pitch #4 of the at-bat right now: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&year=2019&month=4&day=21&pitchSel=573124&game=gid_2019_04_21_minmlb_balmlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2019_04_21_minmlb_balmlb_1/&pnf=&prevDate=421&batterX=79
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That is interesting. On that pitch, Gameday (which I thought was Statcast-based now) seems to match the broadcast zone. Baseball Savant (which I also thought was Statcast-based now) seems to match Brooks Baseball, which I think still uses PitchF/X (the Statcast predecessor).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Our old friend Francisco Liriano has a 0.00 ERA after 5 appearances out of the Pirates bullpen so far. (2 inherited runners allowed to score, though.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Burdi's seeing some leverage in Pittsburgh too. A quick scan of game logs shows 5 of his 9 appearances have been in tie games -- 3 times, ties in the 9th inning.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually found an article about player/manager support for robo-umps: https://www.sporttechie.com/robot-umpires-advocated-chicago-cubs-ben-zobrist/ They also discuss how the technology isn't quite there yet, which is part of the reason why the study that's the topic of this thread should be taken with a grain of salt. Perhaps it's inevitable, but in the meantime, it should be interesting to study and follow.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, April 12th was the cut off for the extra year of control. He was just activated to AAA the day before that, so i can understand not being *too* aggressive there. I can't imagine they will hold him back until June just for Super-2. Then why would they have promoted him so aggressively last year? They have an off day Monday and they come back home to Toronto on Tuesday. I'd have him up already, but I guess it's not unreasonable to wait until Tuesday, at this point. Hopefully we'll hear it announced after their game on Sunday. Edit to add: I may just be bitter about not getting to see him in Minneapolis this week and *still* losing 3 of 4 games...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Some might even say... too hot? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nclvx4LSRpM
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    You know, I was thinking -- I primarily enjoy baseball in person, or on the radio, or perhaps on MLB.TV with the radio or ballpark audio track. I've pretty much never had cable TV in my life, and have thus largely avoided hearing the TV announcers. Obviously at the park, or with the ballpark audio track, there's not much strike zone commentary to be had. And even on the radio, the announcers can't dwell upon it too much, because they have to keep adding to their "word picture" of the entire game. (Edit to add: during yesterday's game, I actually heard Gladden briefly sound upset about a call on a pitch, but then he saw the replay and concluded the umpire was correct. ) I suspect TV announcers are the most likely to fall into this trap, because they can most easily digress from the actual action on the field. Obviously our opinions on the issue go far deeper than the announcers we hear -- but I wonder if this is informing some of my perspective on the issue. I don't even do the game threads much here, where most of the fan strike zone commentary seems to take place. So maybe if I was forced to listen to TV announcers, Clockwork Orange style, I could see a greater need for robo-umps.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, I'm back. Sorry I sometimes need to step back from these discussions. I just want to clarify, I wasn't trying to "argue" anything in this thread, other than there are flaws in the thread title and linked study (neither of which preclude favoring robo-umps, of course). Beyond that, I was just saying that personally, I don't find human umpires calling balls and strikes to detract from my experience right now, and thus I don't feel a particular need or urgency to implement robo-umps. I understand other people disagree, and I'm not trying to change minds as much as share my point of view. However, I just don't like my point of view being characterized as "enjoying unfair penalties", or that I must derive a lesser form of "entertainment" from the sport than others. I feel that characterizing someone's motivations, on either side of this issue, does a disservice to our discussion. How each person views the entirety of the sport is an incredibly complex matter, and shouldn't be reduced to a sensible/nonsensical divide. It's not a binary issue (unlike perhaps a ball vs a strike. ). We all obviously love discussing the sport, or we wouldn't be here! Hopefully we can continue this discussion on a sunny afternoon at the stadium sometime...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Sawyer tallied 2 doubles and a HR in that crazy, 20-18, 15 HR game recently. He was doing well outside of that game though too. Catchers are weird, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see him emerge as a useful backup at an advanced age. Let's hope he stays healthy -- he hasn't caught more than 40 games in a season since 2015 now (before his offensive upswing).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, he's not coming up for the Toronto series in Oakland this weekend either. If I was a Jays fan, I'd be getting upset. No, the Jays don't have much of a chance of winning the division this year, but they could have a good season. They've got a few good players in the lineup, in the rotation, and probably even in the bullpen. Yet they basically salary dumped Kevin Pillar over $5.8 mil, and now they're still sitting on Vlad Jr. for no apparent benefit, all while they still have a black hole like Brandon Drury in their everyday lineup.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the Astros really screwed up by not dealing Gerrit Cole last summer. He would have been the best SP on the market! His value is lower now that he's a pending free agent! ??? Selling high is only a good move when the asset severely loses value or utility right after that point. Pressly has neither lost value, nor utility for the 2019 Twins.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really, no. The Astros selling high on MLB players would have been foolish last July. Obviously that's an extreme example, but given our roster and 2019 control over Pressly, and the still uncertain future of Alcala/Celestino, it's not yet clear that "selling high" was the right choice in our situation either. Edit to add: also, Pressly's value arguably hasn't dropped much yet either, if at all (his performance gains have solidified, although obviously the 2018 pennant race has passed). Especially if you consider his contract extension, I suspect his value is no worse and could be a bit better for clubs who weren't weren't really contenders in July 2018 but expect to be in 2019 and beyond (i.e. the Twins!).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Up to 20 days for position players, up to 30 days for pitchers. Magill was actually healthy for most of spring training -- he made 5 appearances, up through March 13th. So I suspect he won't need to full rehab period. (Although one could argue he's marginal enough that he should use it, to postpone the roster decision.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Someone would have signed him to the 2 year contract last year. Those seem pretty standard now.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I am sure Pineda can contribute some value. But it's likely much closer to Odorizzi 2017-2018 value than Berrios value.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Be careful what you wish for!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure. Graterol's high for innings is 102. Barring injury, he'll probably be in the 140 range by September and they'll probably just shut him down. Also, while Graterol adjusted well to high A relative to his age, I don't think his performance there stood out relative to the league. Graterol: 8.8 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9 League: 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 He's doing very well at AA right now, but also worth noting his AA league is off to a poor start hitting too: .646 league OPS, as compared to .701 last year. And Graterol's two standout stats so far this year are limiting hits and HR.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Google Maps tells me they were born 95 miles apart! (Also 12 years apart ) Too bad Graterol's not on the King Felix timeline...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that the FSL, never a hitter's league, is even more extreme right now. As I posted yesterday: ".627 league OPS so far this year, down from .691 last year." Watson is almost 22 years old, 4 years pro, and still in high-A, so I'd hope he could do pretty well in the FSL. He's also Rule 5 eligible after this season.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, Pineda has a career 102 ERA+ (although his FIP is better). His career high is 175 IP. As Matthew mentioned, he's had shoulder surgery, in addition to Tommy John surgery, and he's 30 years old. Pineda has talent and a big frame, and could still put it all together for a very good year, but I don't expect him to dominate or be a workhorse. A couple solid 5-6 inning starts, followed by an iffy start, is pretty much in character for him. His 4.66 FIP through 4 Twins starts so far is an exact match for his 4.66 FIP in his last season with the Yankees in 2017.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you referring to our offer to Grandal? Or this about Kimbrel? FWIW, nobody seemed to believe that report. MLBTR never picked it up, for example. The guy is a "freelance TV sportscaster" from Atlanta. To the extent that it might have had any basis in reality, I suppose it could have been an attempt by someone in/near Kimbrel's camp to get that kind of offer from one of his preferred destinations. As we are seeing right now, even after it's been widely reported that he's willing to accept 3 years, there doesn't seem to be any rush of offers. Even Atlanta, his hometown team, who just lost their closer for the season -- they still don't seem to have any interest in Kimbrel on a 3 year deal.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Florida State League is playing like the deadball era. .627 league OPS so far this year, down from .691 last year. Lewis is at .675 this year, after .726 last year, so he's at least holding steady, relative to league. Still, he's not quite 20 years old yet. Definitely room for him to improve.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How about Happy Chef?
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