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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick Anderson is an interesting guy to follow. Per Statcast, his K% is top 2 percent in MLB (although it's been falling), but his hard hit percentage and xwOBA on contact are bottom 8%. He's missed some bats, but he's also been hit hard.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If both Gibson and Odorizzi finish healthy and strong enough to warrant QOs by their performance, then we've probably done well enough that we can afford to push our payroll up a little higher to accommodate them, if necessary.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds interesting in theory, but nobody is going to give us any pieces that can confidently help build a "truly dominant team in 3-5 years" in return for Odorizzi, Schoop, or Cron right now. You are going to get guys like Smeltzer, Raley, Alcala, Celestino -- interesting guys, could be useful at times, but nothing that's going to "build a truly dominant team" above what our 2019 team is already doing. Indeed, that's why a lot of us didn't like the Pressly trade -- even before anyone knew we'd be this good in 2019, our 2019 need for Pressly probably outweighed the future benefit of another two 40 FV prospects.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears Allen has all 3 of his minor league options remaining, but with 5+ years service, he also has the right to decline any optional assignment. Under rare circumstances vets might accept them (Anibal Sanchez did his last year in Detroit, just to get some starts instead of being stuck in mop-up duty), but generally they refuse. Allen may have refused a minor league assignment, as is his right, but he didn't have to elect free agency himself. Refusing an assignment in this case would just force the Angels to either keep him on their MLB roster or release him. He still gets his full contract from them regardless (less the minimum salary he might make elsewhere).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Should the Twins be importers/exporters at the deadline?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the bWAR difference, but the majority of that difference seems to be defense (6 run gap in Rfield, vs a 4 run gap in Rbat). So it would depend on how much you trust partial season fielding numbers. By fWAR, they are actually much closer, 1.0 to 0.7. Not that I wanted Dozier back instead of Schoop, of course.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Players with 5 years service time can refuse any optional assignment, even if they technically have options remaining.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting to imagine Nelson Cruz, commuting along interstate 394...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    All I know is that Danchat referenced the cortisone shot here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33539-article-twins-minor-league-report-614-blankenhorn-walk-off-winner-lifts-wahoos/?do=findComment&comment=863217 Seth referenced it here too: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33575-article-twins-minor-league-report-617-elizabethton-twins-preview/?do=findComment&comment=864583
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Perez is easily worth his modest contract, but this might overstate it. The Twins probably don't value each 1 WAR at $8 mil! But Perez still looks poised to exceed more frugal estimates too. Also, his FIP (the basis of fWAR) is his most favorable metric at the moment. His ERA and xFIP are still solid, but both worse than his FIP. Although by RA9-WAR (fWAR without the FIP?), Fangraphs still pegs him at 1.1 for 2019 which is still solid. Something based on xFIP might be similar. By bWAR, he's still only at 0.3 for 2019. Looks like B-Ref is giving him a lot of benefit from his defense -- they have the Twins, Rays, and Astros as leading the league defensively by a large margin... would be interesting to look into that too!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Why do you say "throughout his career" and then only quote stats for 2018? 2018 only represented 11% of his career innings prior to 2018. Prior to 2018, Perez had 8.8 fWAR and 6.3 bWAR in 113 starts, with a 100 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 107 xFIP-. He was still a low K guy who gave up his share of hard contact (albeit with a very favorable hitting environment as his home park) but he was much closer to an average starter than replacement level prior to 2018. It's possible that 2018 was a harbinger of him fizzling out with that approach, in which case the Twins still get some credit for altering his approach and turning him around. But it's a bit misleading to suggest 2018 was representative of his pre-Twins career.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you write the same about Danny Santana in 2015? I expect Cave can improve his 2019 numbers simply by regressing to the mean, but if you're expecting him to get back to his 2018 numbers, more playing time will not help a batter maintain a high BABIP. If anything, it's the reverse, and we're seeing some of the effects of that now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't pick on just fans here -- every national ranking dropped him, some precipitously, for the second straight year. Fangraphs from 50 FV to 40 FV. Even you and your colleagues here at TD dropped him from 3rd to 11th. And "a slow couple of months in Rochester" is kind of an understatement. A "slow couple of months" for a prospect in the minor leagues is usually an 80 wRC+, at worst, over 2 months, like how Royce Lewis started this year. Gordon had 410 PA at AAA last year, 3.5 months of full time play. And he had a *cumulative* .544 OPS over that time, or a 52 wRC+. No player in the minor leagues finished that bad, for that long, at a single level in 2018.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Reusse is not concerned: "So-called pitching crisis with Twins bullpen greatly exaggerated" http://www.startribune.com/so-called-pitching-crisis-with-twins-bullpen-greatly-exaggerated/511547552/ He goes beyond just the bullpen too: "Sorry to disappoint the Twins’ budget-blasters, but there is no pitching crisis here as long as reasonable health continues."
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering that the offensive baseline is way up in the IL this year, so Gordon's .809 OPS only translates to a 103 wRC+. (The same OPS in the IL last year may have translated to a ~128 wRC+.) Still light years ahead of last year's 52 wRC+, though!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I wonder if a cortisone shot is worth it to get back in games at the AA level?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering Cave had a .363 BABIP in the majors last year, and a .396 BABIP in AAA this year. (And a .414 BABIP in his best minor league performance, 2017 at AAA.) I don't expect him to stay hitless forever, of course, but his profile seems prone to streakiness.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about blaming it on pressing. Occam's Razor says Cave is fully capable of hitting like this without any external excuse. (That's not to pick on Cave too much -- we also know he's capable of hitting better too. Every player has streaks, and it's possible Cave just looks a little streakier because of his baseline K%?) Also, I wouldn't be so sure that Cave should feel any particular pressure about his chances of getting sent down again soon. Buxton's wrist is no sure thing to be 100% in a couple days (during last night's radio broadcast, they said he swung the bat Wednesday and didn't feel good, and was going to try again Friday). And our "4th outfielder" Gonzalez, as well as our other utility guy Adrianza, are out too and not even traveling with the team right now. And even if Cave does get sent out soon, his spot on the OF depth chart still looks pretty safe so he still has a reasonable expectation of returning soon.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs: "Lance Lynn, AL Pitcher WAR Leader" https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lance-lynn-al-pitcher-war-leader/
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    They've used that arrangement 3 times already this season (Cave in RF, Kepler in CF). Last night was actually the first time this year they've started Cave in CF with Kepler in RF: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2019-lineups.shtml
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    MIN Lineup M Kepler (L) CF J Polanco (S) DH M Garver (R) C E Rosario (L) LF C Cron (R) 1B L Arraez (L) SS J Schoop (R) 2B J Cave (L) RF W Astudillo (R) 3B MIN Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi, RHP KC Lineup W Merrifield (R) RF N Lopez (L) 2B A Gordon (L) LF J Soler (R) DH C Cuthbert (R) 3B L Duda (L) 1B H Arteaga (R) SS M Maldonado (R) C B Hamilton (S) CF KC Pitcher: Glenn Sparkman, RHP
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Lewis was 6th preseason, but 3 guys ahead of him graduated. The 2 right behind him graduated too. Still holding at 65 FV, though.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Stewart would be rested, last pitched on June 14. Also on the 40-man, Thorpe and Smelter each pitched more recently. Eades and Romero are ineligible to be recalled yet. Vasquez is hurt. Moya has been pretty ineffective?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Torreyes is already "off" the 40-man in the sense that he doesn't count towards the 40 (restricted list). I'd guess Moya might be the next cut, but yeah, trades could be a factor soon too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. MLB's list had 27 guys at 45 or above; Fangraphs only had 8. I've never really check the MLB values before -- are they just inflated overall, compared to Fangraphs?
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