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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You might have trouble finding "numerous successful power hitters" who had a 36% K rate in AAA... Palka is different than Parmelee -- a better track record of power, but with some other tradeoffs like K rate.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    .818 over June and July, but .739 overall since June 1. And of course, he wasn't playing every day in June and July, which was the frequently cited excuse for his poor hitting in early 2015. Maybe not every period of good or bad performance has an explanation, other than they part of a player's potential range of performances? With a low-ish walk rate and an average-ish K rate, Escobar's batting line may be more prone to the swings of BIP luck. (Same with Rosario and Santana.) That's not to say one can't make a case for keeping Escobar, of course.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. That's why it was notable when the careers of Albert Belle and Prince Fielder ended, because they had to stay on a disabled list for the team to collect insurance. Those teams essentially had to manage with a 39-man roster every offseason from November until March. Thankfully Perkins and Hughes aren't quite that hopeless yet, but it is inconvenient to have them occupy two spots while also trying to temper expectations for them.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Jeremy, you wrote your 40-man additions post at the beginning of July, when Zach Jones had just been returned to the Twins. Is his performance since then worth revising your earlier judgment? I feel like he wouldn't get claimed again, but it's also hard to ignore his improved numbers down there...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Randy Rosario was finally moved to the bullpen a few weeks ago, and the results have been very encouraging even if the walks are still a little high: 5 G, 9.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 16 K That's a big improvement on his 5.5 K/9 as a starter this season. And his control was pretty decent as a starter too (3.0 BB/9) which should give him some hope to manage that in the pen.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    This is incorrect. Players on the disabled list have to be activated after the season, and can't be put back on the DL until spring training. Thus those players will count again toward the 40-man roster all winter. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Fortunately for Vargas, he is out of options next spring. The Twins have very little leverage to try to sell him overseas against his wishes. All of their other recent sales or attempted sales had a AAA optional assigment looming above them -- Albers, Kris Johnson, Colabello, and Vargas last winter. Vargas should get some kind of MLB opportunity/paycheck next spring, if not here then as a trade/waiver claim elsewhere (like Arcia this year).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Ceteno cleared last winter, Milwaukee tried to outright him off their roster, but he elected free agency instead. He's had a nice small sample run as the backup, but looking at his history, I think this is a guy you don't think much about losing on waivers. If you do lose him, or he clears but decides to sign elsewhere, there is usually another guy like Eric Fryer in the same boat that you can pick up on a minor league deal instead.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Lackey is a major FA signing that the Twins can't compete with? 2/32? We extended Hughes (and Nathan) for 3/42. Also, Kyle Hendricks is the Cubs ERA+ leader this year, acquired in trade for Ryan Dempster (signed to a 4/52 contract, just like Nolasco-Santana-Hughes). Another modest FA signing Jason Hammel is 3rd, behind Hendricks and Arrieta. Signed for 2/20 plus team option.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Interest, sure, but trading value? Not likely. For this level of pitcher, trades don't necessarily correlate well with FA contracts. Remember when Nolasco was still relatively cheap and effective for the Marlins in 2013? They didn't get anything from the Dodgers for him (3 suspects who were DFA'd with a year), yet a few months later Nolasco got 4/49 in FA and it wasn't considered out of line. Also I suspect the Angels shopped Santiago a bit before they traded him to use. Nolasco + Meyer probably sets the bar for Santiago's near future trade value, no?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    "Real value" except you can't trade him -- he is likely above market value in arbitration. Best case is a non-tender and a re-sign at a lower amount, if you to get value from Plouffe in 2017.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    But is he much more of an asset than Nolasco + $4 mil + a buy-low prospect with an option remaininf? Because that's what we traded for him (for 2017, anyway). Personally, I don't see 5 starters better / more trustworthy than Santiago, so I bet they plan to keep him. Think of him as a Milone replacement, now that Milone has gotten a little too pricey for his contributions.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Sale, Quintana, and Rodon all came up quickly too, and it's hard to argue with their results too much. The White Sox like to develop guys at the MLB level. Even if they fail, it's not necessarily a bad decision -- they may have failed later anyway, and there is value to the White Sox to know that sooner rather than later. I definitely disagreed on Fulmer, but I've got to respect the White Sox commitment to this particular plan/method of theirs.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't quite agree with all of that (Milone is not a worse version of Albers, for example), but I do agree that the Twins could have helped Albers much more by letting him seek another MLB opportunity after 2013, rather than cashing him in by selling him to Korea. (I elaborated on this point in another recent Albers thread.) I don't really have a problem with how they've used him otherwise, assuming they don't recall him again this year.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I was going off of another poster's earlier comment, that he could be in AA given his age. The Twins protected both Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario off the Cedar Rapids staff last year, so there's that. Also, FWIW, Wei-Chung Wang was a Rule 5 selection out of rookie ball, below full season A.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    What's different, other than the results? I'm not much of a scout, so I am genuinely curious if you see something notable there.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter never struggled like this. His rookie season, he had a 71 wRC+, which isn't good, but it's not overwhelmingly poor either (Buxton is at 49 for his career to date, and it was going down, with a 54 last year and a 46 this year). Hunter's rookie K and BB rates were both within 1 percentage point of his career marks in both categories. The key difference was power, which came during the following season after something clicked at AAA. Hunter was a 1.5 years older at the start of his rookie season than Buxton was this year, but the gap between their rookie performances can't be explained by age alone. Gomez matches Buxton better for age, and Gomez posted a 52 wRC+ in his first taste of MLB. But it was again largely a function of having no power -- Gomez's K rate during that first 52 wRC+ season was actually his MLB career best. And Gomez followed it up with something like Hunter's poor but viable 74 wRC+, still lacking power but largely having the same K/BB foundation as his later productive seasons. There is still plenty of time for Buxton to have Carlos Gomez's eventual career, but I suspect that might be the reasonable upside to Buxton at this point. He's got some work to do just to catch up to what Gomez was achieving in MLB at the same age, never mind the slow adjustments that Gomez had to make over the next several years to improve upon that himself.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Williams Ramirez will also be Rule 5 eligible this winter. I wonder if teams don't hold back such players a bit, to make it harder for other teams to select them? If Ramirez went to AA and held his own, we'd probably have to protect him or potentially lose him, but if we let him finish the year in A-ball, maybe other teams won't have enough data to pick him in Rule 5?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    See my reply above. I'm not sure it made any practical difference to do it another way. As for Light, I'd guess the Twins saw their needs shift between Thursday afternoon and Saturday. As of midday Thursday they needed another pitcher, but not necessarily a multi-inning guy -- they still had Albers who hadn't pitched yet, and Milone was still healthy and set to rejoin the pen after his spot start, plus Dean was rested and ready in AAA if needed. By Saturday, they had exhausted both Albers and Dean, and the injured Milone was no longer an option either. (Of course, we've spent much of the season without a real "multi-inning guy", and whether O'Rourke is really an appropriate or worthwhile long reliever is a separate matter of debate...)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough, sorry for the tangent!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    While you are both correct that once Albers lost his "26th man" status, he had to clear optional assignment waivers to be optioned back to AAA, it wouldn't have made any practical difference. He could be (and was) DFA'd before we requested optional assignment waivers, so he was no longer on the roster while we waited for him to clear said waivers. If they waited until after the second game, they would have optioned Albers to get back to 25 guys, and then DL'ed Boshers and replaced him with Dean. But they still would have been waiting on Milone's health status before they could add another player, and Milone's health status wasn't confirmed until later in the day Friday.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if the reporting was off, but the rules are so weird that it's hard to make sense of the reporting. This is what we know, and basically what was reported (although generally without the full technical explanation!): 1. Albers was added as the 26th man for the second game of the doubleheader Thursday 2. Boshers was DL'ed after the first game of the doubleheader, Thursday in attempt to add another pitcher for the second game, but a delayed flight meant that pitcher would be unable to arrive in Minneapolis in time. 3. Unable to replace Boshers in time for the second game, Albers apparently lost his 26th man status. (Correction from my earlier post: optional assignment waivers would not be required to option the 26th man.) 4. While the team waited to see if Milone had to go on the DL, Pat Dean flew to Minneapolis early Friday to be ready for that night's game, either in place of Milone or Albers. 5. Milone was DL'ed Friday afternoon, and as expected, Dean took his spot for that night's game. 6. Now that Dean was able to replace Milone, Albers was DFA'd Saturday and O'Rourke took his spot for that night's game. 7. Albers was reinstated to the 40-man roster and optioned on Sunday. Everything was in accordance with standard procedures and practices (even if the players they chose left something to be desired!).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't that ultimately make it matter more right now? If it's a forgone conclusion that Albers will be outrighted after the season and may elect free agency, why keep him on the roster beyond what was necessary (the doubleheader)? And what does it say about Dean and O'Rourke that they were both effectively behind the "designated man walking" Albers on the depth chart? And what does it say about the Twins that we are investing August innings / roster openings in a lost season on 3 pitchers, ages 27, 28, and 30, all of whom have had opportunities before, have very low upsides, and are very likely to be gone for nothing when the season ends?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No, the DFA has been officially reported by the team too: http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/195293586/twins-call-up-orourke-as-albers-dfad/
  25. Otto von Ballpark
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