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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Hill wasn't coming off surgery those other years. He spent a lot of time on the IL for the Dodgers with blisters. The injury challenge he's facing now is an entirely different animal: https://www.mlb.com/news/rich-hill-has-surgery And the most recent season (2019) showing his least availability, and least October relevance (1 appearance, 2.2 IP, 4 walks), is a worrying trend as he turns 40 this spring too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm pretty sure no one at "Astros Daily" is actually saying that. At least not this week. That said, Hill is clearly the least likely among this group to actually pitch in October 2020 (and even when he pitched in October 2019, he was a playoff non-factor for the Dodgers). And while Pineda looked good at times in 2019, he has a checkered history of performance and durability himself -- plus he's never even pitched in the postseason. Yes, the Astros have some question marks in their rotation like everyone else, but McCullers beat both the Yankees and Dodgers in the ALCS and WS in 2017, Urquidy had a gem road start in the 2019 WS and also pitched a few clutch innings in the ALCS clincher, and even Peacock has done well in some clutch postseason moments (WS Game 7). They also used a bullpen game to clinch the ALCS last year. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't consider any of those guys as October underdogs vs what's projected from Hill/Pineda/Bailey/Dobnak/etc. right now. Nor would they be too concerned about the injury risk of Verlander and Greinke at 1-2 -- they're both older but pretty well established as the most durable arms in the game. Did fans of yore worry about Clemens, Morris, etc. not being healthy for the playoffs? Plus considering the Astros trade history, their fans are probably more confident about making necessary upgrades before the deadline. (Even if they have fewer prospects to pull it off now.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on your measure. Marwin's power was significantly higher at home in 2017 -- 15 HR at home vs 8 on the road, in virtually the same number of PA. His walk rate was also notably higher in both 2017 and 2018 compared to the rest of his career. It's possible that Marwin knew what pitch was coming often enough in 2017 to turn on them and net a few extra HR at home. That could have had a trickle-down effect on his other stats, as teams would pitch him differently at home or away -- i.e. pitch him more carefully and he can get more walks. Of course, it could just be normal variation too. His 2018 power stats are the reverse. (Although maybe the sign stealing was reduced in 2018, and/or perhaps the scouting had caught up enough to neutralize his advantage -- teams likely quit throwing him the pitches he was consistently jumping on in 2017.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Without that rule, the Rule 5 draft would be even more meaningless than it is. Anyone even close to protecting would get added before the draft, and many of them would get waived after the draft. Some of those would get claimed, some would sneak through, and teams would essentially just be shuffling all these marginal guys around for no real benefit to anyone. I mean, the Rule 5 draft is a pretty marginal affair already. So any rule to protect it / prevent circumventing it is going to seem pretty marginal too. But I suspect this is the reason for it -- they want teams to only protect guys they intend to keep around on the 40-man for a little bit, at least.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The rule is that players added to the 40-man for the 1st time after August 15th can't be outrighted off the 40-man roster to the minor leagues before the following March 15th, I think. Basically, I think it's to prevent teams from loading up their 40-man roster with minor leaguers before the Rule 5 draft, and then waiving/outrighting those same minor leaguers after the draft. You can still trade them, or release them, or even let them go on waivers in that time. You just can't outright them to keep them in your org while removing them from the 40-man. So Chalmers is safe, for now.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, Romero should be eligible for a 4th option year. But that's complicated, and not automatic, so it's often not reflected on sites that try to track options for everyone, across the league.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It's all pretty much guesswork, but it's still quite possible that Doogie's $80-85 mil / not the high bidder speculation was correct on Jan. 2nd. I don't think teams often increase their bid, but they absolutely meet in the middle if a player comes to them ready to sign an agreement. That's what happened with Bumgarner and Arizona, and I'm guessing that's what happened with Donaldson and how we ended up at $92 mil, as opposed to saying the Twins offer has been at $92 mil guaranteed the whole time. (I'd guess that contracts very rarely end up at the original guaranteed offer, for deals of this magnitude -- there's pretty much always some compromise involved, more than just phantom option money.) I don't think the Nats offering $100 mil was ever solidly reported either. The same reports seemed to have the Twins and Braves close to $100 mil which we know wasn't true or Donaldson would be in Atlanta now. The Nats could have been in the $85 mil range like us, minimally deferred, just with less interest in compromising to get a deal done once Atlanta was out of the picture and other infielders were signed. But it's all guesswork, at this point. Hopefully some insights about the process trickle out over the coming days -- and hopefully Donaldson hits as well *for* us as he has *against* us!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess it has to be Harper. He barely made the team as a non-roster guy last spring, got demoted in August, didn't make the playoff roster, and will turn 31 years old around opening day. But he could easily come back as a non-roster guy again this spring, maybe even making the team while Hill goes to the 60-day IL.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. I mean, they have Donaldson projected at 5.3 WAR, and he's mostly offsetting Marwin who was at, what, ~1.5 WAR in full-time play? Plus this shifts Marwin to a bench/sub role and reduces projected playing time for other replacements even closer to replacement level.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I mean, I don't mean to say I'm overly concerned with health, but Marwin Gonzalez is likely first in line for playing time in case of injury. Behind him might be Cave and Adrianza. Prospects could enter the picture, likely in the second half, but Arraez was pretty special in 2019 -- I'd expect most prospects, even those rated much higher than Arraez, to have a bit more difficulty in their first taste of MLB. We're also a club that had an offensive force at catcher in 2019, and catchers are pretty volatile in the health department, both for frequency of injury and scarcity of good replacements. So we're more susceptible to regression at that spot too.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Our pitchers already allowed the second-fewest HR in the AL in 2019. Compared to, say, Houston or New York, It seems the "Bomba Squad" may have benefitted from the lively ball disproportionately in 2019, on both sides of the ball. (And Buxton is one of our biggest health concerns too, which cuts into his projected value as a defensive asset.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Pineda is the 41st guy right now, because he's on the restricted list and thus doesn't count toward the 40-man.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Pineda is already on the ineligible list -- that list is available in the offseason, unliked injured lists. But you are correct that Hill can go on the 60-day IL as soon as pitchers and catchers report, and that could open a spot for someone too.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    This is incorrect, Hill and Bailey have been added. They had one open spot before that, plus Pineda was shifted to the ineligible list for the other spot.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't get me wrong -- I'm optimistic too. But it doesn't take much to make regression cases for most of those guys. Health and a less lively baseball could have impacts on most.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios is here through 2022 regardless. And what if Berrios doesn't want to sign a reasonable extension? We've got what appears to be a pretty darn good core right now -- we can prioritize winning in 2020-2022 a bit more than winning in 2023 if we want. And Donaldson's deal certainly doesn't handcuff us for 2023 or anything either, even if he is a DH by that time. We guaranteed a 38 year old DH $14 mil for 2019 too and it turned out pretty well.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think his numbers at Target Field were likely more related to the Twins pitchers from 2013-2018 than anything special about the ballpark. Otherwise we could still probably sign Jose Bautista too and get good Target Field performance, even adjusting of age.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Except for the "he will sign elsewhere" part. Also not clear yet that we were "the high bidder by a reasonable amount" back on Jan. 2nd. Could be we were just in the mix then, but we were also the only one willing to meet Donaldson in the middle to actually get a deal done. Washington, for example, could have been right there with us on Jan. 2nd, with little or no deferred money (like the Corbin deal last winter), but they didn't have much incentive to go higher after their other infield signings. Especially if the Braves offer was lagging behind, as reports suggested -- part of the hypothetical benefit for Washington would have been keeping him from the Braves, and that looked less likely as this dragged out with the Braves as relatively passive participants in the bidding.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the enthusiasm, although Story and Gray both have 2 years of control left for the Rockies. (They are on one-year arbitration contracts for 2020, but are still arbitration eligible for 2021 too.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, a year from now, some in that list may make us go "meh" again.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Marwin had his crazy outlier career year at the plate for the 2017 Astros too...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the effort, but most pitchers aren't Buehrle. They are often happy to slow the game down, just like most batters. I don't want *any* players being able to set the pace of the game, that's the problem.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler to Castellanos in the outfield would be a huge defensive downgrade, though. Likely wiping out much of the gains from Castellanos' hitting. (And it's no sure thing Kepler would be a good first baseman either, at least not right away -- he hasn't really played there in about 5 years. He only had 76 games there in his whole minor league career too.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If all you want to do is antagonize, that's fine. But antagonism itself doesn't actually accomplish anything, and may actually make it harder to meaningfully improve rules in the future, etc. I'm not sure we'll be on the same wavelength to continue the discussion in this direction, but every sport has had cheating scandals. Every entertainment industry has had scandals too, many of which I find much more objectionable than the sports cheating ones. So I tend to doubt that cheating is really why your kids don't follow baseball anymore, relative to other hobbies or interests.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Grocery shopping at Alan Alda's house sounds fun! In any case, I don't think it's clear that owners give more of a damn than the union about minor league salaries. So I wouldn't endorse complaining about the union alone in that context.
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