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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect Boston wanted a pitcher, and Graterol was still the best one available to them. That's why they still wanted him in the deal, even at reduced value. Now that the Betts trade is going through, does the "Boston has cold feet" thing really make sense anymore?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    1. A player's medical report is very comprehensive. Sorry I've linked this a million times already, but it's basically every exam, every interaction with trainers, every treatment recommended, and the results of those treatments. It's absolutely possible that some data in there would shift their original forecast for Graterol, as compared to the publicly available information: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp The fact that the Twins were willing to deal Graterol for Maeda suggests that there's some pessimistic non-public info on Graterol. Perhaps this should have been a hint to the Red Sox, although the extent of it may not have been known. And of course the nature of such analysis is going to be subjective -- not every team or trainer is going to look at the medical report and agree on the same forecast for the player. For example, the Twins may have given him 30% odds of returning to starting and conveyed that to the Red Sox during negotiations, but after the medical review, the Red Sox independently may have thought it more like 10%. Rumor suggests that the Red Sox did request Balazovic in place of Graterol, and the Twins declined. I'm sure they asked about Dodgers pitching prospects earlier in the process too and were rebuffed, hence how the Twins and Maeda got involved in the first place. Graterol is still a good pitcher with value. The Red Sox likely wanted a young pitching component to the trade, and it seems that Graterol was probably still the best young pitcher the Red Sox could feasibly get, even if it his forecast value wasn't as high to them after the medical review.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    A player's medical report would include that, and more. Basically every interaction he's had with the training staff. The results of every medical exam. Every treatment that staff recommended and tried, and the follow-up analysis of those treatments. I've recommended this article a few times already, it's a very good read on the subject: “How baseball teams exchange medical information, and what it means for the Mookie Betts trade” https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the info making Boston look bad seems to all be coming from Jon Heyman, who has notably been a media mouthpiece for Scott Boras in the past.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I really doubt Boston was caught off guard by fan reaction. And I also suspect the Betts part of the deal is still almost certain to go through, and I doubt that swapping Balazovic for Graterol would make any difference in the Red Sox fan reaction.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess Graterol’s shoulder was responding differently to short stints vs longer outings. Every sport has sprint vs endurance type concerns.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Reading Graterol’s medical reports should take 15 days, easy!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I suggest you read this: “How baseball teams exchange medical information, and what it means for the Mookie Betts trade” https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    A really good read: “How baseball teams exchange medical information, and what it means for the Mookie Betts trade” https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Congressional pages.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    As an ex-Ray, he may not be aware that fans exist at all.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we are talking past each other. I have no problem projecting him as a reliever. But you can’t cite that projection as evidence he’s not as valuable as a starter, because the projection itself is just restating the hypothesis.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    They likely preferred the prospect but Maeda could be an acceptable plan B. Especially if they just plan to flip him later.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, there is some more recent activity and discussion in the forum thread here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36318-boston-getting-cold-feet-graterols-health-puts-blockbuster-on-pause/page-6
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Nothing is finalized yet. And I'm guessing all parts of the deal / related deals will be finalized at the same time.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be interesting, and considering Maeda's contract, very plausible.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, but the only Twins pitching prospects with similar value as pre-medicals Graterol are Duran and Balazovic, and maybe they've already been deemed off-limits in these discussions? Generally I agree with you, though, I can't see the Twins adding another 45 FV piece, at least not without also receiving another piece from LA.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch. I was still looking at their "2019 Updated" list. I deleted my post.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch! Not sure what that means, if anything... Edit to add: probably just a Twitter character limit issue.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Bradley is a FA after the season, and was previously rumored to be a contract they'd like to shed too ($11 mil in his final arb season). And to be fair, I was the one who first brought up Raley here, just as a random lower top 30 org prospect that might be in play. So blame me. I also said Jax, if you prefer.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    But this came out just before Heyman's tweet, which doesn't seem to suggest such a big impediment:
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, it might take two 45 FV prospects to match the value of one 50 FV. And the difference in Fangraphs prospect value estimates from 50 FV to 45 FV is steep, $21 mil to $6 mil.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no problem with doing projections that way. It's just that such a projection ceases to have much authority backing up our opinions on starter/reliever usage, since it's simply following our opinions on starter/reliever usage. It's not like ZiPS is saying Graterol can't start or is somehow capped at 0.5 WAR in 2020. (It can suggest he won't throw too many innings in 2020 based on his history, which can be useful, but capping it at 45 like this is somewhat arbitrary.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, so this seems more specific:
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No worries, you're not alone. But it wouldn't surprise me if the original deal went through as planned.
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