LA Vikes Fan

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

It was reported this morning that the Marlins signed Johnny Cueto to a one year deal with a club option that guarantees him $8.5 million. Why do the Marlins need starting pitching? They need bats. Add in Enlow's DFA, which doesn't make a lot of sense unless he's going to be traded, and a thought emerges - are the Twins and Marlins about ready to do a deal with hitting going from the Twins for pitching from the Marlins? Maybe Kepler, Larnach, and Enlow for Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers?  Anyone hearing or reading anything?

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

Waking up yesterday morning on May 18, I was taken aback to see that Lewis was sent back to AAA. Here are both viewpoints regarding the Twins sending down Royce Lewis, and then my own take. 
Those in favor:
The Twins don't know how long Carlos Correa will be with the Twins, so they are sending Lewis down to continue developing at SS In case Correa does stay for a while, it's necessary to find somewhere else in the field for Lewis to play, and AAA is the best place for him to try out new positions You don’t just “try” your #1 future investment in new positions at the MLB level, especially since he’s coming off missing a lot of playing time due to injury He'll be back soon anyway- this is just temporary  More regular playing time in case the Twins aren't able to get him in the lineup every day You're not going to change long-term plans based on < 2 weeks of high production  Those against:
The Twins are a highly competitive team. Lewis helps the Twins be more competitive and is one of their top hitters They sent him down right after a game in which he had a double and a home run!? He has played outfield in the minors before, there's no reason why the Twins could not put him in left field in particular  Sent down before Miranda!? (likely it's just a matter of time before he too heads back to St. Paul to work some things out) What a way to kill excitement among the fans  If he can play short stop, the hardest position on the field, he could play anywhere, especially 1B. If it doesn't work out after a week, send him down With some shuffling around, the Twins should be able to find a spot for Lewis with some regular playing time  My take
I understand the nuances of both sides, but I'm still not a fan of the move at all. I understand he will be back soon, and Correa said he spoke with Lewis after the game and Lewis seemed to take it well, but I think it's a disservice to him to send him down while in the midst of such a hot streak.  I'm glad he's taking it well, and I assume management explained that he's doing great and will be back as soon as he develops some more, perhaps at different positions, but still, one of my first immediate thoughts was a fear that, what if this crushes his confidence. To me, if you have a player who is on fire to the extent Lewis is, you find a spot in the lineup for him, period. Fans reacted so strongly because the Twins are competitive and the fans care. A lot of them have been following Lewis for years, ever since he was drafted. Fans caring is a good problem to have- strong emotion is better than apathy. The Twins are battling the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central crown and playing Lewis in the current lineup makes them a better team. Like I said. hopefully he is back soon, but letting him learn alongside Byron Buxton does not seem like a bad idea either.

I see Nick Gordon has been sent down and Refsnyder brought up. I understand the logic; Gordon has been hitting around .200 with no walks or power for the last month and Refsnyder was hot earlier before he got hurt. We're evaluating both for 2022. 
My question is what does everyone see for Gordon going forward? Given his play this year, do you think the Twins need to keep him on the 40 man roster or could He survive the Rule 5 draft? Do you see a long term future for him with the Twins? We could use the 40 man spot but I am concerned about losing him in the draft since he would be easy for a losing team to stash for a season. 

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

I really like the realignment idea assuming we're going to a universal DH. I made this a comment elsewhere but I also thought I'd also post this as a separate blog. Here's my proposal for realignment. I know it's fantasy but hey, it's the dog days of summer so why not? 
5 divisions, not 6. 12 teams in the playoffs, The top 2 in each division plus two remaining teams teams with best records make the playoffs so there is a reward for being a little better than average. Four best records get byes while the other 8 play 3 games series down to 4. Lots of playoff games; TV loves it. The remaining 8 teams (4 with byes plus 4 first round winners) re-seed by record, not location.  During the regular season you play all of the teams in three of the other four divisions 6 times each, 3 at home, 3 away.  That's 108 games (6 times 18 - 6 teams in each division). You play the remaining games in your division. You play 11 games each year against your 5 division opponents, except one only 10 times, for 54 games, total 162. Alternatively, add a game and rotate the unbalanced 81 home/82 away schedules in each division. You could rotate through the division the one team that you "only" play 10 times and you'll have to rotate each year which team gets the extra home game, 2 you get the extra, 2 your opponent, to balance the schedule.
Division are by location to create/enhance rivalries:
West Coast Division - San Diego, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, San Francisco, Oakland/Vegas, Seattle
Southwest/Rocky Mountain Division - Houston, Texas (Dallas), Arizona, Kansas City, St. Louis, Colorado (Denver)
Midwest Division -  Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburg or Toronto (bummer that Twins are in a different time zone, but couldn't figure out a way to fix that)
Southeast Division -  Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, Cleveland or Baltimore (depends on whether you want the Ohio or Beltway rivalry)
Northeast Division - Boston, NY Yankees, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburg or Toronto, Cleveland or Baltimore     
You rotate through the other divisions in the regular season. One year, the Twins play the Northeast, Southeast and Southwest, next year the Southeast, Southwest, West Coast, next year the Southwest, West Coast, Northeast, etc. That away the existing rivalries that are being broken up still play 6 games against each other 3 out of every 4 years like the Cubs and Cardinals. Those will fade over time; the Cubs new hated rival will be the White Sox, the Cards, the Royals.  
What do you guys think?

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

Once again, the 2021 Minnesota Twins game script played out in Chicago on Tuesday night. Despite a three-run blast by Yasmani Grandal, Kenta Maeda had settled in. Rocco Baldelli pulled him after the 5th inning, only for the bullpen to immediately cough up the lead. Starters, relievers, anyone? Is there anyone the Twins can trust?
Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen is hot garbage. The front office brought in Hansel Robles and Alex Colome this offseason. Both are decent signings, but there wasn’t much in the form of additional firepower. Robles had question marks as to whether he could regain previous form, and Colome was certainly a candidate for regression (although not this far). With holdovers like Tyler Duffey and Cody Stashak taking steps backwards, it’s become Taylor Rogers or bust.
We’re now over 30 games into the season and the same trends are continuing on a nightly basis. No bullpen in baseball, save for the Tigers, is on par with the Twins futility. Their strand rate is dead last, they’ve accounted for an MLB worst 12 losses, and their ERA is the fourth worst in the sport. Why then does the skipper continue turning to them more often than he has to?
Yes, numbers absolutely suggest that the more times a lineup sees a starter, the more likely you’re going to run into trouble. The problem for the Twins is that they’ve been so risk averse with their starters, that the onus of each additional out placed on the relief corps only heightens the likelihood of problems.
Going back through the 33 games played to this point, I highlighted 11 different starts that seemed questionable scenarios to lift the pitcher. Not once did the starter have more than 88 pitches thrown, multiple times they were under 80, and in none of those instances had they allowed more than three runs. Six of those situations included the bullpen being activated in the 6th inning, with another four of them being 7th inning activations. That means the worst unit in the league is being asked to get something between 9-12 outs or at least 33% of a total game, despite the starter being in a good spot.
It’s also understandable that Rocco Baldelli would be hesitant to run a starter out for another inning and face the problem of bringing in relief help with runners on. Remember, this group allows inherited runners to score at an alarming pace, so bringing someone in without a clean inning only ratchets the difficulty of their task. At some point though, there has to be a shift in philosophy when it comes to finding a way that works.
Minnesota has an awful bullpen and we’ve seen that reflected by in game results on a near nightly basis to this point. The starters aren’t world beaters by any means but letting a guy with 85 pitches in the 5th or 6th inning start the next half has to become more commonplace. You know the devil that is the relievers right now. We don’t really know the devil that is the starters quickly running into a wall. Allow that to also be broke before you try fixing something that hasn’t been there. It’s not April anymore, pitch counts reaching or exceeding 100 shouldn’t be a fear.
The season might not be salvageable for the Twins at this point but trying a different strategy would certainly be a welcomed sign as opposed to practicing the definition of insanity.
 
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The Twins play their 30th game this afternoon and are currently 11-18. They've been beset by bad luck, bad play and have taken a beating with two rule changes (extra-inning runner on second, 7-inning games for doubleheaders). How do they get out of this funk? I'm sure many in the organization will preach patience and they may be right, but that isn't any fun. Here are some possibilities for change that might help the team:
 
Role change. We've already seen one role change. At least temporarily Alexander Columé is not going to see high-leverage innings. Columé has been a huge disappointment and even when he has worked scoreless innings, he's been shaky. The problem is that taking Columé out of high leverage situations leaves the Twins with few good options, particularly when going 6 or more innings for a starter is a rarity. I think one pitching role change that should be made is to use Taylor Rogers in non-save high leverage situations as happened early in 2019 and sometimes use him for multiple innings. Rogers shouldn't be used in back-to-back days. Moving Alcala to high leverage situations seems to be gradually happening. If things continue to go bad, it makes sense to have him give a shot as a closer. Position players--it seems to me that both Polanco and Kepler should have their roles diminished from full-time regular to something different. Kepler can play a corner and center and Polanco has played short and second, maybe Max should be slotted as the fourth OF or at least platooned with Garlick. I think giving Polanco the role of three-position infielder wouldn't be a stretch. He could get some at-bats as a platoon partner for my choice of regular second baseman (Arraez) and left-handed at-bats in place of Simmons and when Donaldson takes a day off (or is injured).
 
Promotions/demotions. Assuming that Alex Kirilloff is in the big leagues to stay, when healthy the Twins have one extra position player and someone will have to be sent to the minor leagues or released. Discussion has centered on Jake Cave. Several others could be sent down and that doesn't begin to discuss the pitching staff. Many pitchers'performances could merit their demotion.
 
Trades. It is unlikely that anyone will make a significant trade this early in the year. However, the Twins would be a good candidate for a major trade nearer the trade deadline. They have some redundancy (left handed hitting corner outfielders) and holes that need patching (bullpen, perhaps catching) and many candidates to trade. They also have a lot of players who would be free agents after this season. I do wonder if someone who was considered a cornerstone (Polanco, Kepler, Sanó) could be traded. None of these guys have performed remotely well so far but an uptick could make them more marketable. I have to believe that the Twins will bring in new pitchers either in the bullpen or the rotation. What they have at this time in the bullpen just hasn't worked.
 
Personally, I think the Twins will need to do a little bit of everything to turn the corner. I am a proponent of changing roles. I think Kepler and Polanco could be candidates to have limited roles. The Twins need to add at least one strong arm in the bullpen, most likely by trade and Trevor Larnach is reputed to be nearly as much a sure thing as a hitter as Alex Kirilloff, plus he is a better outfielder. There is too much talent for the club to continue to play sub.400 baseball, but I think they need to make changes immediately.

When looking at the 2021 Minnesota Twins it is pretty easy to look around the diamond and see positives and negatives for nearly every player. Take Byron Buxton for example. On one side you have a game changing defender who has shown power over the last two years. If things break right, he could be in the MVP conversation. On the other side, you have a guy who is prone to injury and tends to go into extended slumps at the plate.
 
Which player are the Twins going to get in 2021?
 
Now take that line of thinking and apply it to the entire roster. When more things go right than wrong (the 2019 Twins), that’s a very good baseball team. When more things go wrong than right (the 2018 Twins), well, that’s a different story. Like a box of chocolates, you just don’t know what you’re going to get.
 
The Twins front office has done a great job of creating depth up and down the entire roster this offseason. They are 11-12 players deep in their lineup with starting caliber players after the addition of Andrelton Simmons, and they have a scrap heap of arms they can pull from to form the bottom part of their bullpen.
 
The worry is did they do enough to alleviate the risk in case of injuries or ineffectiveness from the team?
 
Let’s dive in.
 
Below you will see an evaluation plus projections on each position group (using Fangraphs Depth Charts projections) for the Twins and the “anxiety factor” - a thing I just made up that rates how risky each position group is with a “boom” or “bust” scenario. It's rated on a 0-10 scale. 10 being the most risk.
 
Catcher:
 
Mitch Garver was a monster in 2019. He won the Silver Slugger and posted a career best .995 OPS with 31 HR’s. In 2020, he battled injuries, landed on the IL for a significant portion of the year, and only appeared in 23 games. In those 23 games he was borderline unplayable with a .511 OPS. He never looked right, due to injury.
 
In a limited sample, Ryan Jeffers was impressive. In 55 AB’s he posted a 118 OPS+ and earned positive marks from his pitching staff and advanced metrics for his pitch framing abilities. Oh ya, and he took Shane Bieber yard.
 
https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1304619154054549504
 
It’s easy to see a scenario where the Twins have a lethal catching combo with two starting caliber players and offensive upside. It’s also easy to question the optimism. Is Garver fully healthy? Can we trust a 55 game sample size from Jeffers or is there a sophomore slump coming?
 
Anxiety factor: 3
 
I feel the Twins will get good production out of the catching spot. With injury, even Astudillo can sub in for a short period of time.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 2.7 (8th)
 
Mitch Garver: .236/.321/.442 - 1.2 fWAR in 294 PA’s
Ryan Jeffers: .249/.313/.415 - 1.4 fWAR in 320 PA’s
Willians Astudillo: .283/.314/.453 - .1 fWAR in 26 PA’s
 
First Base:
 
Like Buxton, Sano might be one of the most frustrating players for Twins fans. He’s the definition of a roller coaster. In 2015 he looked like Miguel Cabrera in his rookie year. In 2016 he was hurt and put in right field. In 2017 he was an all-star. In 2018 he was overweight and sent down. In 2019 he was one of the best hitters in the league. In 2020, he posted the 2nd lowest OPS+ of his career (104).
 
So, what can we expect out of Sano in 2021? The Twins need him to be closer to his .830 career OPS than the .757 he posted in 2020.
 
Anxiety factor: 6
 
Sano’s inability to hit fastballs and work the count deep, drawing walks in 2020 was a concern. Despite a .395 OPS in 29 PA’s this Spring, Sano does look to be tracking much better in a small sample and projections expect him to bounce back. If things somehow break really well, he could see his way to a season like PECOTA’s 90th percentile projection for him.
 
https://twitter.com/Nashwalker9/status/1360056481635270657
 
Also, it should be noted that the Twins have other options that will see time at 1B this season. Kirilloff, Rooker, and Garver can all play here, which alleviates some risk.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 1.9 (10th)
 
Miguel Sano: .230/.322/.507 - 1.8 fWAR in 595 PA’s
Alex Kirilloff: .279/.326/.449 - .1 fWAR in 49 PA’s
 
Second Base:
 
Jorge Polanco moved to 2B with the Simmons addition bumping Luis Arraez to the utility role. Polanco, who was playing hurt in 2020, posted the worst offensive season of his career (.658 OPS). Now, with a surgically repaired ankle for the second year in a row, will Polanco be able to adjust to a new position and return to form? In 2018 and 2019 combined, Polanco hit .293/.353/.466. He also figures to get some work in at Shortstop.
 
Arraez, who has knee problems of his own, has hit over .300 in back-to-back years and will fill in at times all around the diamond. It’s easy to see a pathway to this duo being a great pair in 2021. But, with injuries a part of both their pasts and neither having defensive prowess, should fans be a bit more concerned?
 
Anxiety factor: 2
 
This duo projects to be near a top-5 position group among all 2B in baseball. They are covered in case of ineffectiveness or an injury. Not to mention there are other players in the org that could fill in if needed here (JT Riddle, Travis Blankenhorn, and Nick Gordon). It’s hard to see a scenario where Polanco was in fact worse than he was in 2020.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 2.7 (6th)
 
Jorge Polanco: .274/.334/.436 - 1.6 fWAR in 448 PA’s
Luis Arraez: .311/.370/.410 - 1.1 fWAR in 231 PA’s
 
Shortstop:
 
One of the Twins biggest moves of the offseason was the acquisition of slick fielding SS, Andrelton Simmons. Simmons ranks 1st in DRS and UZR among all shortstops since 2002.
 
Like many Twins, injuries are no stranger to Simmons who suffered ankle injuries in 2019 and 2020. In 551 PA’s between 2019 and 2020, Simmons produced a 84 OPS+, below his career average of 91. The Twins don’t need him to hit in order to be valuable. They just need him to be on the field and continue to do what he does best, play defense.
 
Anxiety factor: 4
 
With Simmons' injury history, any long term setback could be detrimental to the strength of the 2021 Twins - depth. If Simmons' offense continues on a downward trajectory or he takes a step back defensively, that could also hurt the overall makeup of the team. Luckily, their backup was the starting SS for the American League All-Star game in 2019.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 3.4 (10th)
 
Andrelton Simmons: .277/.328/.393 - 2.9 fWAR in 581 PA’s
Jorge Polanco: .274/.334/.436 - .4 fWAR in 91 PA’s
Luis Arraez: .311/.370/.410 - .1 fWAR in 21 PA’s
 
Third Base:
 
When Josh Donaldson played last season, he was productive. His 131 OPS+ in 28 games was near his career average of 136. The issue was that he only played in 28 G due to calf injury and missed the entire first round of the playoffs. Not ideal.
 
The Twins need Donaldson on the field this season. He has now missed significant time in 2017, 2018, and 2020. The good news is that the backup options seem to be better than they were in 2020. The Twins can give Donaldson days off, when needed and still have a formidable lineup with Arraez, Polanco, and even Sano filling in.
 
Anxiety factor: 4
 
It’s comforting to know that there are other options to fill in for Donaldson in case of an injury that are better than Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza. However, I’m skeptical of Donaldson's ability to stay healthy. Rocco will have to pull the right levers to maximize rest and recovery. If he’s not out for a prolonged period of time, there are backup measures in place.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 4.0 (6th)
 
Josh Donaldson: .242/.363/.468 - 3.0 fWAR in 490 PA’s
Luis Arraez: .311/.370/.410 - .6 fWAR in 133 PA’s
Miguel Sano: .230/.322/.507 - .3 fWAR in 49 PA’s
Jorge Polanco: .274/.334/.436 - .1fWAR in 28 PA’s
 
Left Field
 
The Twins non-tendered Eddie Rosario this offseason because they have lots of depth at the corner OF positions. Alex Kirilloff, who many believe will end up with the starting LF job at some point this year, was sent to the alternate site last week.
 
So, at least to start the year, the Twins will have to mix and match between Luis Arraez, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick.
 
Like every position, there’s reason for optimism...and concern.
 
Jake Cave has a career 107 OPS+ and can play all three OF positions. He was great as a 4th OF in 2019 - that’s good! Jake Cave posted a .674 OPS in 2020 across 42 games - that’s bad!
 
Brent Rooker had a nice debut in 2020 playing in 7 G’s, but his season ended with a wrist injury. Will the wrist injury linger and can his offense overcome his defensive limitations?
 
We know the type of hitter Luis Arraez can be, but he’s uh, not a natural outfielder, which could hurt the Twins in the field.
 
Then there’s Kyle Garlick who has mashed at AAA but success hasn’t translated to the pros where he has posted a .691 OPS. He’s 29 and if his offensive surge from Spring Training doesn’t continue, he could be DFA’ed.
 
Kirilloff’s demotion last week split the Twins fanbase. His Spring numbers are not encouraging and with only 415 PA’s above A ball, he’s no slam dunk in 2021. So LF is a bit of a mixed bag.
 
Anxiety factor: 6
 
Easily the most concerning position group on the Minnesota Twins amongst the hitters. Yes, they have lots of options but as you can see above, there’s equal reasons for optimism and concern. Kirilloff offers the most upside but for now will not be on the Opening Day roster. Trevor Larnach should be mentioned here as a potential option as well.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 1.3 (19th)
 
Alex Kirilloff: .279/.326/.449 - .7 fWAR in 329 PA’s
Luis Arraez: .311/.370/.410 - .5 fWAR in 147 PA’s
Jake Cave: .248/.309/.426 - .1 fWAR in 126 PA’s
Brent Rooker: .234/.305/.437 - .1 fWAR in 56 PA’s
Kyle Garlick: .218/.272/.399 - -.1 fWAR in 42 PA’s
 
Center Field:
 
Like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton has had his share of a rollercoaster Twins career. He’s had his injuries and struggles at the plate. However, 2020 was promising. He capitalized on a strong 2019 and led the entire team in bWAR (2.1) over 39 games. He was limited in the playoffs, however, due to injury. Across his last 126 games, Buxton has a .833 OPS with 23 HR’s. The Twins have a .563 winning percentage when Buxton is in his lineup across his whole career.
 
The question mark of course, is can he stay healthy?
 
The Twins have options to backup Buck, but unlike other position groups, any player playing instead of Buxton will hurt elsewhere. For example, if Kepler is in CF, you’re weaker at two spots since Kepler is a downgrade defensively to Buxton and anyone who plays RF is going to be worse than Kepler. A healthy Buxton is a key to success.
 
Anxiety factor: 5
 
Since Buxton has shown effectiveness across the last two seasons, hopefully some of his offensive woes are behind him and he can be more consistent. However, injuries are a real concern. He’s only played only 100 games once in his career. Will this finally be the year? We’ll see.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 3.8 (4th)
 
Right Field:
 
Since 2019 Max Kepler ranks 16th in baseball in bWAR (4.1) for outfielders. His breakout 2019 looked to continue into the first part of 2020, but he went into a slump at various points of the year and basically forgot how to hit left handed pitching, something that helped his overall numbers in 2019. In fact, 2020 was the worst he’s ever been in his career vs. lefties. Meanwhile, in a small sample, 2020 was the best he’s ever been vs RHP.
 
https://twitter.com/andluedtke/status/1374737976480169984
 
In addition to his own injury history (missed parts of games in 2019 & 2020), his 2021 Spring Training has been discouraging (3-for-43). At his worst, he’s a great defensive platoon player who hits RHP well. At his best, he’s an above average all-around player and a major cog in the Twins lineup. What version are they going to get?
 
Similar to the backup options in LF Garlick, Kirilloff, Rooker, and Cave figure to get playing time.
 
Anxiety factor: 4
 
There’s concern about Kepler putting it altogether again like he did in 2019. Hopefully this slump in Spring is meaningless. The options defensively without Kepler in RF are a bit frightening. In any case, even if something were to happen there are enough guys in the Twins system that could fill in at the corner. Celestino and Larnach are not too far off.
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 2.9 (8th)
 
Max Kepler: .248/.337.475 - 2.9 fWAR in 609 PA’s
Kyle Garlick: .218/.272/.399 - -.1 fWAR in 42 PA’s
Jake Cave: .248/.309/.426 - .1 fWAR in 28 PA’s
 
Designated Hitter:
 
Nelson Cruz was the team MVP in 2019 & 2020. All he’s done in a Twins uniform is hit. The concerns with Nelly of course are his age, wrist injury (are we sure you can just play normally with a ruptured tendon?), and the fact he fell off the map at the end of 2020. In his last 11 games he posted a .256 OPS.
 
Anxiety factor: 2
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 2.5 (3rd)
 
Nelson Cruz: .267/.353/.524 - 2.2 fWAR in 574 PA’s
Josh Donaldson: .242/.363/.468 - .3 fWAR in 98 PA’s
 
Most teams don’t have a “backup” DH contingency plan in case things go south. If anything were to happen, there’s plenty of options for the Twins to fill in the DH spot to get players like Donaldson off his feet. Rocco may employ this strategy anyways to maximize rest & recovery.
 
Starting Pitching:
 
Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda figure to be a strong 3 in this rotation. Can Kenta repeat close to his runner-up to the Cy Young award numbers from 2020? Will Jose Berrios finally take that step forward we’ve all hoped? Will Pineda be able to continue to be effective in a full season? Barring injury, these three should be pretty safe bets to continue with a strong 2021. It’s the rest of the staff that may be a bit worrisome…
 
Many (myself included), felt the Twins didn’t do enough in free agency to elevate the ceiling of the rotation. The floor, yes. But, they seemingly missed out on that upside move to really take a giant leap forward. They sat idly by as Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, and Taillon were traded. They made offers to Kluber and Morton but obviously, they chose a different path. They ended up with J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker. Happ has been serviceable since 2018 and posted solid numbers last year (ignore his postseason ). You could do worse for a #4 starter but after getting a late start in camp due to COVID, his age, and the fact that the AL Central employs many mashing right handed hitters, could they have done better here?
 
Shoemaker has been effective when healthy. The problem is, he never is. Shoemaker hasn’t thrown more than 80 innings since 2016. That’s a real concern.
 
In a 162-game season, teams can’t operate on a 5-man rotation. The Twins know how important depth is. They will be using their 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th options for starts. I am excited to watch Dobnak now that he has added a pitch and is coming off a strong Spring. Having a healthy Donaldson and Simmons behind him will be a massive plus as he has the 2nd highest GB% since he came into the league.
 
I think there’s enough arms here to create a top-15ish rotation. They can always add at the deadline too. I just wish they aimed higher this offseason. They’re only a move or two away from having a top-5 staff. Hope it doesn’t hurt them come playoff time.
 
Anxiety factor: 3
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 11.8 (12th)
 


 
Bullpen:
 
After losing May, Wisler, Clippard, and Romo the Twins replaced them with a handful of internal guys plus Hansel Robles and Alex Colome. Since 2019, the Twins have the second best ERA as a staff (Tampa is #1). So the front office clearly knows what they are doing. It seems their strategy is to lean on the top-4 guys in the pen (Rogers, Duffey, Colome, and Robles), hope their other guys can take a step forward after a strong 2020 (Alcala, Stashak, Thielbar), and get effectiveness from the scrap heap of guys they picked up this offseason. Maybe there’s another Matt Wisler in there (Law, Waddell, Gibault, Anderson, Hamilton, Sparkman).
 
I think there’s a lot of risk here. I wish they added 1-2 additional veteran arms to really help bolster this group. Each guy in the current pen comes with question marks and you really have no clue what you’re going to unlock, if anything, from the scrap heap guys.
 
Rogers - Is he the 2.61 ERA guy from 2019 or the 4.05 guy from 2020?
Colome - He continually outperforms his peripheral stats. Can that continue in 2021? Since 2019, he has posted a 2.27 ERA but a 3.78 FIP
Duffey - Should we read anything into his awful 2021 spring?
Robles - He posted a 2.48 ERA in 2020 but a 10.26 ERA last year in 18 games.
Thielbar - He started the year hurt due to a back injury. Can his 2020 be trusted?
Alcala - Very impressive 2020. Hope he can take a step forward in an elevated role in 2021.
 
If any of the top-4 are ineffective for prolonged stretches or injured, the depth in high-end arms gets tested. Unlike other position groups, the backup options are not as strong.
 
If one of the top-4 guys is not useful, this may look more like a bottom-10 bullpen than a top-10.
 
Anxiety factor: 6
 
Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projection: 3.0 (9th)
 


 
Conclusion:
 
Now that we have each position group broken down into parts and risk associated with each, we can draw a few conclusions.
 
If the season goes as Fangraphs projects it to - the team will win ~88 games.
 
If more things break right than wrong, guys are healthy, moves are made to bolster the team at the deadline, and steps forward are taken from certain guys - this team could easily win 94+ games
 
If more things break wrong than right, there are too many injuries and/or some guys regress - this team may end up winning ~83 games.
 
That’s a good sign when your worst case scenario is a borderline playoff time.
 
My prediction:
 
With the over/under set at 88.5 in Vegas, I am taking the under. But barely. I think there’s a chance things go more wrong than right and the team ends up winning 85-87 games but securing a wild card spot. I’m giving the Central to the White Sox. At the end of the day, it may come down to who is healthier and even with their depth issues, their guys have stayed healthier better than the Twins. Like Forrest Gump said, you just don't know what you are going to get.
 
Record: 87-75
Wild Card
 
Twins end up defeating the Angels at Target Field ending the 0-18 streak. From there, it’s anybody’s guess…
 
Go Twins!

As we turn the calendar page over on a new year (or actually replace the calendar I guess), it’s fair to say that we’re all a little bit anxious. We may be anxious about any number of things, but, specifically regarding the Twins, we see holes in the roster, unsigned free agents capable of filling those holes, and a whole lot of nothing in terms of new signings. Everybody has their favorite potential signing and their own opinion on whether Nelson Cruz should come back, but, save for the Minnesota contingent of the Hansel Robles fan club, nobody’s ideal plan has even started to take shape. We’re just waiting, hoping that the holes get filled soon, and guessing at who they’ll be filled by.
 
Though it’s been worse this year due to uncertainty about game schedules and a potential National League DH, this anxious waiting-for-things-to-happen period has become a staple of the Major League Baseball offseason because the league’s free agency rules have one pretty major flaw. Every year, fans have to sit and wait while signings trickle in slowly and the top free agents – some of the best players in the league – can go months without a team. And it’s due in large part to the league’s rules about service time.
 
Under MLB’s free agency rules, a player does not qualify for free agency until they have six years of major-league service time or if they’re not offered a contract by the team that owns their rights (non-tender free agents). This means that almost all successful major-league players won’t see free agency until they’ve been in the league for six years. And, taking into account the significant time players spend in the minors, it means that most are pushing thirty by the time they get to choose where to play (as you can see here). Ok, so what? The issue is that, at 30, most players are at their career peak or just past it, and there’s often no telling how fast a player’s decline will come. There are just as many immediate disappointments like Lance Lynn as there are ageless wonders like Nelson Cruz. There are very few “sure things.”
 


Lynn's failures as a Twin show the unpredictability of signing most veteran free agents 
And, because baseball doesn’t have a salary cap, the guys that are closest to “sure things” (Realmuto, Ozuna, Springer and Bauer this year) can demand massive, $25+ million per year deals as the price for their services. Understandably, teams are wary of spending this kind of money, but they still want those blue-chip players. As a result, we get long drawn-out negotiations that cause fans to wait while players and teams are stuck in stalemates. And, because many teams are holding their money for the star free agents, the markets for the lesser free agents don’t really start until the big fish find new homes.
 
The result of all of this is a lot of waiting for the upper- and mid-level free agents to sign, and when they do, the best players will cost a scary amount of money and the others may or may not ever significantly help the team that signs them. Major League Baseball could fix this by peeling back the service time requirements (creating younger, deeper free agent classes) or by instituting a salary cap and max contract system (keeping players from demanding such huge contracts), but neither is likely to happen, so it seems that we’ll be stuck with baseball’s inefficient free agency system going forward.
 
Fortunately, this inefficiency actually helps the Twins. You see, if baseball had less stringent service time rules and free agency was more efficient, the wealthy teams that already dominate free agency would become that much more dominant. The better free agency gets, the better rich teams get. Imagine for a second if baseball had free agency rules like the NHL, where players are eligible for free agency at age 27 at the latest (NBA and NFL players see free agency even earlier) – Miguel Sanó and Max Kepler may already be in Yankee pinstripes or Dodger blue and José Berríos would be a year away from heading to Boston. That’s not good. Flashback to reality and the Twins can feature these players for years to come and have time and security to work out long-term deals without having to bid against richer teams. That is good. Major League Baseball’s free agency rules value team control more than any other major sports league in America and team control of young talent is exactly what the Twins have been successful with throughout their history.
 


Sanó and Kepler are players the Twins are glad to have long-term 
Sure, the new front office group has been able to spend more in recent years and they deserve real credit for turning Target Field into a free agent destination worthy of bringing in players like Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz. But, even so, it’s naïve to think that the Twins could compete with the top spenders in the league if free agency were expanded. The team is still built on developed talent, and that’s okay because they’re damn good at it. “Fixing” free agency would only allow other teams to steal the Twins’ homegrown talent away earlier in their careers.
So, the next time you find yourself getting frustrated at the lack of Twins signings or at the fact that Jorge Polanco is still the best shortstop on the roster, remind yourself to be thankful that Jorge Polanco and others are still on the roster at all. Yes, I’d like a more exciting free agency period, too. But, in this case, we should be careful what we wish for.