AlwaysinModeration

These gods are so mean and spiteful, they might afflict the Twins with some sort of scary comebacker, hitting him so hard that the letter “A” from the Rawlings baseball is emblazoned on the chest (or maybe left shoulder) of Taylor Rogers, forcing him to miss 4-80 months. Oh, and Duffey is next,

I was totally with you, all the way up to #3.

Bumping this thread up so that people can read up more on Wes Johnson’s background. When they hired him, I posted a number of stat lines from his time with several college programs, noting the rapid, remarkable improvements. (Any one else wondering if the Twins will wind up trading for Dakota Hudson or Brandon Koch?)

I was curious. I plugged it into a word counter app. I copied 365 words, out of a 1785 word article, so I copied 20.4%. It was too much, in my opinion, so thanks to Sixel for calling me out. I knew when I was putting the excerpts together that I was pushing the line (I even specifically trimmed down sections). It’s worthwhile to flag me, and to have the discussion. It’s all good. Dan Hayes is producing a lot of valuable content for the Athletic, with a lot of additional great content on the Twins, Vikings and much more as well. People should pay for a subscription. (And especially to read that Rosenthal piece; there is a lot of great detail on different pitching coaches and approaches around the league). I was very impressed with Wes Johnson when I read about him when they hired him. Everything I’ve seen in the few weeks of him working with the Twins has made it easy to see why he has had such remarkable success with multiple college programs over an extended period of time: He uses cutting edge technology to get a lot of relevant data, simplifies it, and communicates it to his players in a way they can use, getting their buy-in in the process. From my vantage point, his signing is likely the most important move the Twins have made in the Falvey-Levine era.

I’ve read the Rosenthal piece twice now. Agree with you it is fascinating. And just to continue to push the envelope here, let me provide a quote from the article about the Astro’s pitching coach, who at 70 is the oldest pitching coach in baseball, who worked with Wes Johnson and many other new-guardish pitching coaches, and is clearly a leader in innovative approaches to using analytics in working with pitchers: “Strom was out of baseball in 2006 and ‘07 after the Nationals dumped him as their minor-league pitching coordinator, helping his wife run her dog-grooming business.”

I probably went too far, and I will try to be more in moderation going forward. Pretty interesting look at what certainly seems like some new ideas and new approaches with the pitching staff. Wes Johnson had a good rep and a good track record coming in, and now we’re starting to see why. Wonder if his talents as a coach will be even more evident with a major league budget / resources, instead of a college one.

I came here for the pitchforks, and found them! Honestly I was a bit wary about the 7-10 day timetable. What was the liquid on the stage? How did he cut his heel on stairs so that he needed stitches? Was he barefoot? Did the infection occur after the wound reopened? Shouldn’t he be under instruction to be careful with the stitches to avoid reopening the wound or getting it infected? If he kept working out while injured, did that factor into the setback? There’s was a lot of info in this story, Parker, so thank you. I stil came away with more questions!

Thanks for posting this, this is very useful context. It also helps puncture my argument that Gonsalves has dropped more than he should have in rankings.

There is a new piece in the Athletic by Dan Hayes about the new pitching coaches and approaches. Good read. It’s behind a paywall, but worth the price. Here are a few interesting parts of the lengthy piece: “The entire pitching staff has thrown daily bullpen sessions with Rapsodo pitch tracking and Edgertronic cameras recording velocity, spin rate and capturing release points and other vital data.” .... “This year, they’re just open,” Hildenberger said. “’We’re analytics, forward-thinking and this is how we’re going to do it.’ It’s not like it’s, ‘We’re trying to implement this idea.’ It’s like, ‘This is our plan. This is how we’re going to go attack hitters. Let’s do it in spring training and let’s find ways to get guys out. And if it doesn’t work, we’ll find a new plan.’” ... “The Twins don’t want to overload their players’ heads with too much data. They also want players to know why they’re making an adjustment. ”From the first time he met with the team’s pitchers last month, [Wes] Johnson has made clarity a focal point. He doesn’t want his players wondering why a change was being made. Johnson also wants pitchers to speak up if they have an issue with the plan being implemented. “I’m always going to tell them why we’re doing something, and it’s going to be objective,” Johnson said.... “It’s going to be backed up with data and backed up with when you’ve had success. “I’ve challenged each and every one of those guys that when we’ve given them something to come to me and challenge me on why they’re doing it if they don’t believe it.” ... “Those guys are really good at aggregating a bunch of data and information, condensing it, putting it into a statement or a couple of statements and then telling you,” Hildenberger said. “They’re not afraid. If they think they have a piece of news that will help you get better, they’re going to tell you. They’re not going to withhold any information.” ... “Martin Pérez lit up the radar gun Sunday and looked outstanding in his second appearance of the spring. The left-hander’s fastball sat between 95-97 mph as he struck out four batters in three scoreless innings. The velocity is a sharp increase from last season when Pérez’s four-seam fastball averaged 92.8 mph, according to Statcast. It stems partly from a mechanical adjustment Pérez made with Johnson.”

According to this Fangraphs article (from one year ago), Granite is the sixth best prospect in the game, projected to amass 10WAR over the first six seasons of his big-league career. Presumably a lot of that value is centered around his defense. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2018-top-100-katoh-prospects/

How can can you be so....obtuse? .... Nothing stops. We’ll have a little book barbecue in the yard, dancing around it like wild Indians. Do you understand me, or am I being...obtuse?

To draw out the comparisons, let's pull up the minor league numbers for these guys: Player (highest minors level reached) Berrios (AAA) 591IP 2.77ERA 1.07WHIP 7.2H/9 0.5HR/9 2.5BB/9 9.6K/9 Romero (AAA) 394IP 3.02ERA 1.19WHIP 7.9H/9 0.3HR/9 2.8BB/9 8.3K/9 Brusdar (A+) 153IP 2.71ERA 1.10WHIP 7.5H/9 0.3HR/9 2.5BB/9 9.9K/9 Duran (A-) 259IP 4.03ERA 1.32WHIP 8.7H/9 0.6HR/9 3.2BB/9 8.0K/9 Thorpe (AAA) 328IP 3.18ERA 1.21WHIP 7.8H/9 0.8HR/9 3.0BB/9 10.7K/9 Enlow (A-) 114IP 2.91ERA 1.25WHIP 8.2H/9 0.4HR/9 3.1BB/9 7.1K/9 Gonsalves(AAA) 599IP 2.46ERA 1.10WHIP 6.4H/9 0.4HR/9 3.6BB/9 9.5K/9 I get that the lists are based on a combination of stats and stuff. But we also know that numbers generally get worse as players move up to face off against higher competition. Now, maybe the better "stuff" is going to make these guys do the opposite, and post more impressive numbers as they move to higher levels. But to me, I would put my chips on Gonsalves being the better pitcher going forward than Enlow, Thorpe, and Duran. (Brusdar looks like the closest comp, other than Berrios...but he still has a ton to prove.)

I'm trying to see if I have what you are saying right: 1. Gonsalves advanced a level in the middle of every single year of his minor league career, culminating in a promotion to the majors on that same exact path, midway through the season after his midyear promotion to AAA. 2. He blew away the minors at pretty much every level along the way. 3. He should have been moved quicker so that he would have struggled more in the minors, gotten to the majors faster, so that he could be more like....Martin Perez?

Thank you researching this topic. It’s important to have this all documented, and I think you correctly chronicled the chain of events without sugarcoating any of it.

Pineda debut, two shutout innings.

Not bad for the team’s #12 prospect. You know, the guy who in 599 career minor league innings posted: 2.46 ERA 1.10 WHIP 6.4 hits/inning (!) 0.4 hr/9 3.6 bb/9 9.5 k/9 And then was bad for 24 innings in his major league debut in August and September in 2018 (6.57 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and everyone gave up on him. For comparison’s sake, in 591 career minor league innings, Berrios posted these numbers: 2.77 ERA 1.07 WHIP 7.2 hits/9 0.5 hr/9 2.5 bb/9 9.6 k/9 In Berrios’ mlb debut, he pitched in 14 games/58IP and posted a 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. Remind me again why Gonsalves has tumbled from the Twins’ #2 prospect to their #4 prospect to their #12 prospect and how Enlow, Thorpe, Duran and Graterol have gotten better than him?

The irony is that we assume Sano’s reduced plate appearances this offseason is going to lead to an increase in plate appearances this season.

I know that you will be hard to convince otherwise, but arguing for balls and strikes calls to be made correctly is really completely unrelated to the play of pitchers, hitters and fielders on the field. While botched calls can be a cause of intense discussion amongst fans after the game (perhaps years after), I’d rather spend that timing discussing the performance of the players. And I don’t think it takes the human element out of the game at all to ask that all the calls be made as right as possible. It just means the human element is focused on the performance, success and errors of the players, where it should be.

Yes, but do we know how many plate appearances Escobar got at Fogo de Chao?

It’s a bit hard to get super-excited about this move after they have added Cruz, Cron, and Schoop, not to mention having Cave, Austin, Duda and Astudillo to sort through / possibly lose. But he’s clearly an upgrade to the overall roster (have to figure he takes Adrianza’s spot), he’s a switch-hitter, and he can play / platoon pretty much anywhere. I like seeing the FO actively trying to improve every spot on the roster. I just hope that they are right that the marginal dollars spent on him are more valuable than anything else they could have done, especially if these are the last FA dollars they spend this year.

I think you are right. Reed at the top. I just thought the board would scoff if I typed that. As for whether it’s a good yardstick....I’d rather look at the whole picture than the last year (or two). Of course, you could weight the last year or two a bit heavier if you want. That might make sense too.

And if I were ranking them with Kimbrel under consideration, it would be: 1. Kimbrel .... 2. Everyone else

Based on their track records across their entire careers, I’d rank the candidates: 1. Romero (hard to judge since he’s been a starter, but I understand the “he could be a weapon” thinking) 2. Rogers (he had a great year, but doesn’t have the track record to back it up) 3. Hildenberger (last year’s HR/9 looks flukey) 4. Parker (last year’s HR/9 looks fluky, this could turn out to be a great signing) 5. Reed (needs to keep homers down, but he has an impeccable track record...big bounce back coming; he could slot in anywhere 1-5...provided he isn’t injured) .... 6. Mejia (sticks as a long man / starter candidate, but numbers don’t stack up as a reliever; I would think Romero should be way ahead of him in the pecking order for SP) 7. May (Ks are great, but too many hits, walks and homers) ... 8. Magill (I don’t get it. Numbers just aren’t impressive).

Yeah, I have no problem with them jettisoning Magill.

Reading the article, I agree with Thrylos that the story here isn’t that they might sign him, but rather that they had made an offer some time in the undefined past (and based on their bad experience with Lynn and Logan as late signees) and won’t wait much longer. Therefore, the real question, in my mind, is whether there are unreported offers on the table for Keuchel and/or Kimbrel, as well?