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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    Im with you all the way (no to Ellsbury), but Darnell? I would also like to see, when they don't get Tanaka, either Lincecum or Josh Johnson signed, in addition to Hughes. What would people think of Joba?
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    The Cards clinched, and will be hungover today against the Cubs. On the other hand, the Indians are tied with the Rays a game ahead of Texas. Pretty good chance the Cubs win and the Twins lose today.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    Wouldn't it be a fun shock if the Twins dropped a $50mm big of this kid? It would fit the "any current year price" comment from Jim Pohlad. And the contract wouldn't need to be 7-8 years, right?
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    9/14 Reverse Standings 1 Houston 2 Miami. -3.5 3 White Sox. -7 4 Cubs. -12 5 Twins. -12.5 6 Brewers . -13.5 7 Seattle. -14 8 Mets. -14.5 9 Giants -15.5 10Rockies. -16.5 10 Padres. -16.5 Positioned pretty well for a top 7 pick, and could move up to #4.
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    Wait a second. BA names him player of the year, yet Seth doesn't even give him hitter I the year for the Twins?!? Seth, you are tough as nails.
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    Very positive: I read this interview and conclude that Gardy is gone. And a change is really needed. I also think that the Twins would be better off without their "interim" GM. Less optimistic about that though. I don't particularly trust the thinking / player evaluation of either. I think if the Twins had a manager who was pushing hard for high K or upside pitchers, the GM would more likely be pursuing them. So the roster construction falls partially on the manager, I think, too.
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    It matters if you have a budget and you are really trying to squeeze every bit of excess value you can out of every penny. However, if you sort of have a budget, and you don't spend anywhere near that budget, the extra value you squeeze out of the Correias and Doumits of the world pale in comparison to the value you could have squeezed out of the money you left on the table.
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    This is looking at it backwards. Impending free agents are evaluated based on their track record, position, and importantly, their age. The expected WAR for the next year is then calculated, and for each subsequent year of the contract, you factor in .5 WAR decrease. Multiply the total WAR over the going rate per WAR to get the contract. After an off-season, you can calculate the going rate based on what was given out to see if it is increasing. Has been 4.5-5/WAR for a few years. Willingham got 3/21. That's about 4.5-5 WAR. He was probably valued at 2 WAR in 2012, 1.5 in 2013, and 1 WAR for 2013. If players perform badly in their first year of a FA contract, perhaps their WAR valuation was high...or they had a bad year. If anything, it would decrease the going price per WAR. However, with more TV revenue to spend in baseball, I expect the going rate to increase this off-season.
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    It is true that 3/21 is the largest FA signing the Twins have ever made. However, before two years ago, the argument "the Twins will never sign a 3/21 contract because they never have" would have been valid. It never happens...until it happens. Last off-season, everyone in the world, including TR, knew the Twins would not compete. The Twins are getting close, though, now. TR signed Willingham when Cuddyer and Kubel walked. This year, two other long-term organization guys (Morneau and Blackburn) are leaving. I think we will see a "record" FA signing by the Twins this off-season, and it will clearly be a SP. I would love to see Lincecum (like the Liriano 2.0 comp), but I think Hughes (previously linked to Twins), and Josh Johnson (MN connection) are much more likely. Wild guesses: Hughes 3/33 Johnson 2/15+ incentives
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    Very cool. Thanks for posting. When the Twins drafted him, as a Twins fan you must have been doubly thrilled. What is the plan for the off-season? Would be interesting to hear how much structure a prospect like Stephen is given by the organization during the off-season.
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    Congratulations, grandpa. First grandchild? I managed to see Rosario go 5-5 and Sano hit 2HRs...but missed Meyer's return to AA. Next year, hopefully we'll get to see Buxton in Bowie. Thanks for the great summary of Gonsalves. Looks very promising.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    DAM...did you make it to any of the Bowie games this weekend?
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    I dont know but he last pitched Monday. Lew Ford definitely Lives....starting in RF for Bowie...
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    Was at the Rock Cats game last night. Points: 1)The play where the Baysox scored their third and fourth runs was straight out of Little League....swinging bunt, two overthrows in the infield, two runs in and batter winds up on third. Rosario got an error, but it was an over zealous play trying to throw the runner from first going to third. 2)Sano had a number of checked swings in the game, called out on strikes once, and once visibly shaking his head on a checked swing called a swing by the home plate ump. The ump visibly nodded his head that yes, it was a swing. (It wasn't. Sano was right.). It seems like Sano is working on laying off breaking pitches that he is clearly getting more of. 3)Rosario and Sano both had nice plays in the infield; Rosario ranging to his right to get a ball up the middle and making a quick string throw, and Sano aggressively charging across in front of Santana to take a medium hopper to short. He didn't field it totally cleanly, as it bobbled in his glove, but he corralled it and made a strong throw. Fun game. Rosario can make some solid contact! (Although Sano's single, with a huge amount of spin on it dropping it in front of the left fielder, was probably the hardest hit ball of the night.)
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    To update this thread, Buxton has now hit over .400 through 24 August games, with an OPS over 1.000, despite not hitting any homers this month. His K/BB is 11/13 on the month. He's also been moved down to batting third in the lineup. To defend jokin a bit, I think there is truth to the point that there are athletes who have natural talent who don't have the continual drive to always improve because everything has always come easy to them. Players who are fast moving prospects in the minors have been the best hitters and pitchers on their teams for years (as well as likely the best football players, soccer players, and golfers). But I think attributing that to Hicks is extremely hard to do, though, and I'd stay away from it with a ten-foot pole. I hope Hicks is the Twins CF next year until Buxton arrives in late 2014 or 2015, and then slides over to LF and puts up Carl Crawford-like defensive performances in a corner OF spot for years...with more HRs and higher OBP than Crawford, albeit lower average.
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    Just speculation here, but I think you pulled these out of your Advanced Sabermetric Stash.
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    I can't believe I am missing Carlton. Those sweaters rocked.
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    I have tickets for Friday night in Bowie. Hopefully Meyer doesnt pitch tomorrow night...
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    Seth--Any idea where Alex Meyer pitches next?
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    Nice article and congrats on going a year. Really like your sense of humor. Next time, I suggest a Venn diagram.
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    Maybe he turns into Johan Santana. And we need to reevaluate that Castillo trade.
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    Nice work. I agree that is he can reduce his walks a bit, that will be Deduno's best shot at being useful, with expected regression in his other numbers. Also interesting that the focus of this winds up on Jake Westbrook, jwestbrock.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    By muddling along at about 500 for the past few weeks (15-13 since the ASG), the Twins have fallen from a strong fourth in the standings for the upcoming draft to their current spot in 10th place. Teams like the Angels, Phillies and Giants have passed them by, with the Mets, Mariners and Blue Jays lurking within a couple of games. If the Twins aren't careful, they could wind up with the 14th pick in next years draft. Which, in view, would be a terrible outcome for this lost season. This draft looks big--and I don't think I need to convince people that there is a big difference between drafting top 5 and top 15.
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    The Hardy deal was mostly Gardy's fault, saying loudly how the Twins needed more speed in the lineup to fit carvernous Target field. Hardy was the "obvious" choice; the slowest guy in the "speedy" positions. Voila; upgrade from Hardy to untested, one-year BABIP-inflated Japanese batting champ Nishioka. There was also speculation Hardy would be hard/expensive to sign long-term, and injury prone. He was signed to a 3/21 extension by the Orioles two or three months into the following season. And he was basically healthy all the next year while Mauer suffered bilateral leg weakness. The Hardy trade was so incredibly exasperating, and made me as a fan have lose so much confidence in the organization. When they traded Gomez to get him, I was amazed they managed to land him--a stellar defender at a prime position with power and decent on base numbers. And young too! The fact that they ran him out the door, insisting on trading him for nothing was hideous and so baffling. He had just hit 300/400/500 in the second half of his first season with the Twins after working through an injury.
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    I personally would like to see him back pitching in AA soon. For example, how about in Bowie next weekend?
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