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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    Found this review of Jeff Hoffman's season debut really interesting. He probably won't be available at #5, but if he was, he sounds good: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-ecu-rhp-jeff-hoffman/
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    8 of these 10 guys making top 100 lists...amazing. That seems unusual to me, but maybe that is par for the course.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    Of these four, I think Diamond is the most likely to be put on waivers, but even that is a slim chance. I think they find a way to keep them all. And your assumption that no one gets injured isn't a very good one; there is a good chance that one or more of these players will be rostered in place of an injured player. As noted, Deduno could start the season on the DL. The team could also be creative in finding space in their bullpen; Pressly can be sent down, as could Thielbar. Complicating things may be the chance that Swarzak gets a shot at the rotation too. Maybe one if the bullpen guys is moved, or someone could get hurt there too. The fifth player on this list is Colabello-does he have an option?
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    What about Swarzak starting ? If service time/money, and MLB tradition were all thrown out the window, which five guys on this list would be in the Twins starting rotation to start the year, to give them the best chance at winning the most games?
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    The article/Andy/Redmond failed to mention whether Nolasco gets after it.
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    It will probably be a statue of him making that diving catch in the World Series. And a Twins hat, of course...how could he snub the team with whom he win so many rings? #itshappening
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    I remember reading the SI article about Buxton; scoring from 2B on a sac fly, and throwing a football the length of the football field, and hoping they'd take him. Also thought Appel would go to his hometown Astros, so didn't think he'd be there.
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    Also says 20 teams had scouts in attendance, so I would be surprised if the Twins didn't. I hope they are aggressive in bidding for him. $30mm? Ok, sounds good.
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    Is 45 or 50 home runs actually in jest? Why not?
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    It does make you wonder, if big league clubs didn't lose player control after six years, and thus possibly miss out on a player's prime years, how much sooner many above average players would move up to the bigs. It is easy for clubs to hide behind the "need for players to develop" over the course of 5-6 years in the minors, but in reality, it is just cheaper/more efficient for their payrolls to make sure good players don't debut until 23 or 24. I think their is a lot of MLB-caliber play that gets squandered in the minors due to the current system.
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    And thanks for posting the link, jay...good piece.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    It's an interesting piece on basketball, but having spent many hours trying to figure out WAR contributions of various Twins players, I think it is doing a very good job of factoring in the various contributions of baseball players. It factors in different hitting skills, including on base and slugging abilities. It factors in fielding contributions, albeit still rough, but at least a good estimate. It factors in chances, by weighting positions differently (playing time logged at SS gets an adjustment over RF). It factors in innings-eating pitchers, as well as quality of the pitcher. It factors in leverage of relievers in late game key situations. The article talks about how box scores credit shooters and assists, and the need to use data to better assign value added. That to me is like crediting RBIs and Wins in baseball, and needing to better assign value added. WAR is doing that.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    Love this kid. Would he top any organizational prospect lists?
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    Who brought Debbie Downer to the party?
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    Between Lewis Thorpe, Stephen Gonsalves, and Felix Jorge, not to mention Kohl Stewart, the Twins added a big group of very high upside arms in the last 12 months. Of course, they also added Alex Meyer and Trevor May in the past 14 months, so that is 6 significant arms added in short order. I would kind of like to add Phil Hughes to this list of high upside arms, but I am not sure it fits in the same category.
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    So who will be in the Rock Cats' starting rotation behind Baxendale?
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    I was thinking more along the lines of Mayday Malone.
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    I believe eve that is correct. The only thing that is up for grabs is how many spots down the Twins pick falls...when sandwich picks are awarded for Kendrys, Ubaldo, and Ervin. Yes, we are on a first-name basis.
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    For some reason, I always thought Guerrier was a real warrior.
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    I'm trying to envision a scenario in which the Matt Guerrier signing leads to increased ticket sales. Friends and family members?
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    If front-loaded contracts--or "aging curve" contracts were regularly instituted, it would cut out a lot of these bloated albatross contracts like Wells and Matthes and Soriano and Howard and Pujols; they could be built so that they were much lower dollar figures in the far years. Tom Tango has for years done great work on calculating, extremely accurately, what sort of contracts free agent players should, and do get. In his calculations, for players in the decline phase (usually post-29), he factors in a .5 WAR decrease per year. At a going rate of 6 million/WAR, it would make a lot of sense to have contracts that look like, in Drew's case: 3/30, with the years being 13/10/7. That would also mirror his expected contribution to the team, and would make his 2016 salary palatable (and maybe more platoonable.) I also thought declining contracts didn't really ever happen, though, but they do, albeit infrequently, and this conversation has helped illuminate this. I also think Drew for 3/30 would be a great deal, cheaper than he is worth.
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    Chief, it seems pretty obvious to me the advantage the Twins get from having elite offense from a position like catcher. And it becomes even more obvious when Mauer moves from C to 1B. We are exchanging a Morneau-type for a Suzuki-type in the lineup.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    I think that Drew is better than Florimon, and better than any option the Twins are likely to put out at SS for at least two years, and quite likely 3 years. I have not seen anyone argue differently, while there has been debate over exactly how much better Drew is, or how good the pipeline is. The real question is unfortunately not "how do the Twins best spend their last available dollars?" but rather "will they spend some of their available dollars, or not spend it at all?" Since that is the question, and since Drew would improve the team, I hope that they spend the money and sign him, even factoring in the cost of a second round pick. Last year there was heated debate on whether it was right to root for Twins losses down the stretch to get a better draft pick, with many arguing that they would "root for wins, no matter what." Well, count me in the camp that roots for off-season signings that will improve the team's chances for this year. Even if the Twins likely won't be a strong playoff contender.
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    If the Twins sign Drew, it would make the loss of Butera hurt less.
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    If the Twins don't like giving up a draft pick, maybe they could work out a trade with Boston to balance the loss of the pick?
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