AlwaysinModeration

I haven't been listening that podcast recently, but hearing you will be on makes me want to check it out.

Keep posting these, they are great reads!

I don't know. How many starts before Correia is over 5 for the season?

I love the Mike Morse comparison. Can we get Colabello a nice "beast" nickname or a good "Take on Me" soundtrack that the crowd gets into? (they still play it in DC even though Morse is now back in Seattle.) I hope that Colabello turns into the Twins DH for the next half dozen years.

How long is Hicks' leash? He's hitting .172 in May. He's hit 5 home runs across two days. Those two days seem to have bought him a lot of leeway....especially for a rookie with no time at AAA. Congrats to Colabello--great story!

Whoever was advising Buxton to sign for a few hundred million under...should be fired.

To heck with Gibson, when is Colabello getting a chance? He should be the Twins' DH right now! Of course, I'd like Gibson to be called up too.

This year's top draft pick is hugely more interesting than last year. Probably for two reasons...first, there are a lot more possibilities (as we learned last year, it is viable to sign someone cheap early), and second, the Twins minors are bursting with interesting prospects, and it's exciting to think about adding to that system. I'm leery about drafting a high school prep arm, but I keep thinking "Dylan Bundy.". My vote is for Kohl Stewart. A lot of possibiilities, though. The biggest surprise would be seeing the Cubs take a 2-for-1 approach, evidently. So let's hope for that.

How about Bryant going #1?

Could Pressly start?

Or he may go 10 for his next 16.

I agree with the premise of this article. The next contending team doesn't need to be far away, and Mauer's window is soon. If the Twins trade Morneau and Willingham...perhaps landing a SS prospect (Texas has three legit SS prospects, I think) and SP prospect, and grab a college arm in the draft, that could be three more pieces for a quick rebuild.

Garrett Jones?

A 6'2", 200 pound, switch-hitting shortstop, Minier signed by was signed by the Twins in July of 2012 for a cool $1.4 million, the fourth largest international signing in 2012. He's 17 years old, and likely will shift over to third at some point. He's viewed as having plus power potential, but maybe not as strong plate discipline. Here is a video of him: Oh, and Seth says he prefers to go by the name German, as opposed to Amaurys. 6/22: Short-season start (finally!) update, Minier has reported to the GCL Twins. Last night he doubled and hit a 3-run homer in his professional debut. He batted cleanup, and started at 3B...so the shift may be sooner rather than later. Interestingly, his debut came in the same game as the other high-profile 2012 international signing, Aussie Lewis Thorpe, who started and gave up 2 runs in four innings while striking out four with no walks. As for questions about where he ranks in the Twins' system, I'd guess he fits into the 15-25 range. Gleeman had him at #22, and it is hard to compare his signing bonus to other high profile international signees, given recent changes (caps) to the signing bonuses. Safe to put him in the 15-25 range, with real upside potential for moving up. Regardless, great debut for the kid, we have been waiting!

Technically I meant Amaurys Minier, but I didn't remember how it was spelled.

I'll take Minier.

Yeah, I was also wondering why you called him a mercurial prospect. (I think Delmon Young...or Zack Greinke?) It's kind of sad that at this point I view this Arcia as a "how are the Twins going to screw this up" kind of situation. They are developing a pattern of messing up the latter stages of players development pretty badly with yo-yoing call-ups/demotions. Arcia has raked at every level though, so hopefully that pattern will be "Twins management-proof." (By the way, I thought Brunansky was supposed to work wonders with struggling batters? If so, he better start focusing on Hicksie quick!)

Here is my summary--the higher you draft a pitcher, the more likely that pitcher will be a dominant pitcher. However, given the high rate of flameout of pitchers, due to injury and other issues ("there is no such thing as a pitching prospect"), drafting a pitcher is typically riskier than drafting a position player. Also, given the fact that many pitchers take a long(er) time to develop into their full potential, it is unsurprising that many superstar pitchers come from relatively unheralded draft spots.

Hmmm...mine might be more like: Verlander, Hernandez, Price, Strasburg, and Halladay.

Great thought piece. Let's start by ruling out Mauer. He's an up-the-middle guy, but his catching days are dwindling and he'll be 30 in a few weeks. While I expect several more MVP-level years, he isn't going to be here long enough to build a franchise around. Next, let's rule out Berrios, Gibson, and Meyer. Berrios looks like a great young man, potential ace and face of the franchise. But he's 18, and a pitcher--too much risk. Similarly, Gibsonmay be very good, but he has yet to even pitch at the majors, or fully prove he is back from TJ. Meyer looks the part of an ace, and I am eager to see his progress, but as a pitcher who hasn't pitched above AA, I can't roll the dice there. Arcia is next out. Bat looks great, and he continues to surprise at each higher level. But as a corner OF, I can't count on him to build my franchise around, however high my hopes are for him. That leaves me with Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, and Sano. I like Rosario, and I love the move to an up-the-middle position. I would have liked to see his season last year without the broken face mixed in. This year will be huge for the guy who out-homered Sano two years ago. But he's not my guy. Between the last three, I hate to do it, but I have to rule out Buxton. He's just too far away, despot having all the tools and an up-the-middle profile. Mauer was the #2 guy the Twins drafted #1 (Prior), while Buxton is the #1 guy the Twins drafted #2 (Correa). I like that His future is bright, but I want more certainty--and immediacy for my franchise. So, Hicks or Sano? Both low-average, good on-base guys. One with premiere power, and one with premiere speed and defense. Both have flaws...Hicks struggles against lefties and doesn't hit for high average or huge power. Sano also hits for lower average, and struggles defensively. I love the Miggy Cabrera comps, but Sano is never going to win a batting crown. In the end, I think I am going with the guy who plays an up-the-middle position with exceptional defense, who is on the cusp of winning the starting CF job after skipping AA for the first time since Joe Mauer, with the on-base chops to lead off for the team for the next decade, and the potential for developing power. Aaron Hicks.

It appears to me that Mauer does a better job than most at making square contact (thus the high LD% and high BA, and when he does miss, he misses high on the ball at a much higher rate than the rest of the league. While he is clearly a superstar and under appreciated, and ridiculous to even consider making suggestions to someone vastly better at hitting major league pitching than almost everone on the planet, I think that this article does demonstrate that it may be true that if he could move his contact point/target zone a bit lower on the ball, without sacrificing his LD%, he could swap out some ground balls for fly balls and therefore home runs, and be an even better hitter than he already is.

When you get to Morneau, I'd focus on Texas, which has three good SSs aged 25 or under.

Carlos Rodon. That's a pro for trading Willingham you are missing. The sooner the Twins trade Willingham, the better they position themselves for the top pick in 2014.

+1 Reminds of this: http://www.mac-n-seitz.com/teams/mike-matheny-letter.html

Vegas sets the line for 50% above and below. And the 50% above are all of the Twins homers who love to be optimistic about their club. You'd like to think hometown fans would be wiser, but in fact they are just more biased. Smart money is on the under.