AlwaysinModeration

I remember the elbow injury causing Giolito to drop down, but that no one thought the Nats would be able to put together the money he was demanding at the #16 pick. Nats draft 2009-2010-2011-2012: 1 Strasburg 1 Harper 6 Rendon 16 Giolito Man.

My takeaways from this article: 1)I wish the Twins had found a way to lose one more game in 2013, move ahead of the White Sox in the draft standings, and taken Rodon. (Edit: never mind, it was the Cubs they tied--White Sox were 3 games up). 2)That Giolito pick at #16 by the Nats was amazing. (Edit: not that I am complaining about Buxton and Berrios. Man was that some draft).

I think Rosario is high at 78. 77 is probably more accurate. Maybe 76. I'd look at the AAA rotation, and count on at least 2-4 of the opening day AAA rotation getting MLB time. Assuming May or Milone gets #5, who will fill out that rotation? Meyer, May/Milone, Wheeler, O'Rourke(?), Duffey? Berrios? If Berrios makes the AAA rotation, his chance at the MLB roster at some point should be way higher. I'd also guess Wheeler has way more than 15% chance.

I like the premise of the article, but I would put my top five developments for 2014 slightly differently: 1)The emergence of Hughes: He improved his control dramatically, developed his cutter, and now the Twins have what looks like an ace for the next five years. 2)Departure of Gardy and Anderson, but not Bruno. The guys without new ideas are gone. (Actually the new idea "start infielders" in the outfield is hopefully gone.). Molitor appears open to new approaches (see defensive shifts) and Neil Allen brings in an outside perspective from an innovative organization. 3)Setbacks by Sano and Buxton. Lost years from the twin top-five prospects should moderate expectations. Still high hopes for stardom for both...but not quite a certainty. 4)The Terry Ryan return from cancer and continuation as the GM. Rob Antony was his interim replacement earlier this year. Neither appear innovative or anywhere near cutting edge. Most of the strengthening of the farm system had been good draft picks (Buxton, Stewart, Gordon), luck (Sano) or a combination (Berrios). Meyer and May are attributable to Ryan, but also cost the Twins years of CF question marks. Last year, he extended Suzuki when he was playing way over his career norms instead of trading him. Then he spent $10mm on the worst-fielding OF in the game for his age-40 season. 5)One last high draft pick. The poor 2014 play netted what will hopefully be the last top ten draft pick for years to come.

This is a great move. Here is what I commented on an entry in Justin Masterson in November: "Nice analysis, Parker. I wouldn't mind a Masterson signing. But my priority list for money spent on the Twins rotation this winter would look like this, with #1 way out in front: "1)Extend Hughes 2)Bring Liriano back 3)Sign Masterson" Honestly, I was thinking maybe we could hope for 1 and 3. Instead, we got 1 and a higher target for #2 (I think, although let's wait a couple years to see who is more valuable between Liriano or Santana). Thrilled. Kudos for Terry Ryan and Phil Hughes!

Jon Lester was a potential centerpiece from the Johan trade, as was Hughes. It would be nice if the Twins were ever even remotely a contender for one of the top free agents. Instead, they hand out small-to-medium contracts each year to good-to-mediocre players that add up to the cost of a marquee players. Nolasco-Pelfrey-Milone=$20MM (not to mention Hunter and Suzuki). Aim for mediocrity, and you have a high chance at success. Lester would cost $20MM+ per year. But he doesn't cost a draft pick, and he is someone the Twins have wanted in the past. Wouldn't it be nice if we could have some hope of being a mystery team in on Lester? Back to the premise of the article...there would be room in the rotation for an ace. There isn't as much room for another mediocre option.

After the inaugural season at Target field, the Twins brass made the fateful decision to remove the 14 black spruce trees from centerfield. When viewed in retrospect, this decision, it seems clear, has placed a curse on the franchise. Consider: The Twins won 58% of their games in the first season in which they called Target Field their home, including a whopping 65% of the games they played at home in the great outdoors, with a piney backdrop. Since felling the trees, the team has won 41% of their games over the past four years, and only 40% of the games at the treeless Target Field. If the Twins had won 53 home games in 2011 (like they did in 2010), they would have come in second in their division. 53 home wins in 2014 would put the Twins tied with Oakland for the Wild Card. 53 home wins in 2012 would have won them the AL Central Division. There is more to the #CurseOfTheTrees: After uprooting the trees in January, 2011, the impact was almost immediately felt: Michael Cuddyer developed problematic warts on his feet within 2 months, Joe Mauer was diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness by April, and the Twins biggest ever international signee, Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka, broke his leg in his sixth game in MLB - the day before the Twins were to play their first game in Target field without the trees. Morneau couldn't get back on track from his 2010 concussion all year, (including needing neck surgery by June) and by the end of the 2011, top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson was going under the knife for Tommy John. More recently, the #CurseOfTheTrees has extended its limbs back down to the minor league system, causing it's two uber prospects to have largely lost seasons immediately after rising to the tops of the prospect lists; Sano undergoing Tommy John surgery (highly unusual for a position player) and Byron Buxton injuring and reinjuring his wrist before getting his season cut short in August from a head-on collision and concussion in his first game at Double A. The misery hasn't end with the Twins who stayed within the organization. By the end of 2014, former Twins regulars had gone on to great success away from the treeless expanses of Target Field these past four years: winning batting titles in 2013 and 2014, multiple gold gloves, a 2012 Cy Young award (and a Top 10 finish in 2013), and a 2012 postseason MVP trophy. The trees were undoubtedly the root of the Twins firing a GM for the first time in countless years, and a manager for the first time in decades. The Twins have to bring the trees back. When the trees are back in place, the team will quickly become (re)accustomed to hitting with the backdrop, giving them an advantage over their opponents. And instead of counting on a wayward Twins employee to turn the air conditioning on to the home team's advantage, the Twins fans can turn on their mini fans towards centerfield when the opponents bat. It will be like basketball fans trying to throw off opposing foul shooters. Let's end the curse. #BBTT Bring 'em back.

Nice analysis, Parker. I wouldn't mind a Masterson signing. But my priority list for money spent on the Twins rotation this winter would look like this, with #1 way out in front: 1)Extend Hughes 2)Bring Liriano back 3)Sign Masterson Assuming, as we all do, that hoping for a Twins Scherzer and Lester or signing is folly.

From this list, I see Jorge, Murphy, and maybe Diaz with the biggest long-term upside. Seth, can you list their ages as you do this? Thanks

I agree that if the Twins were smart they would check out the prospects of extending Hughes. 3/36 extension would be a great deal. He signed for three years because the Twins offered it. He wanted some certainty. I imagine he would be open to signing an extension here. My imagination is sometimes off, though.

I'm not sure I totally buy the premise here. Yes, Twins have had decent production at SS and by the player that appears to be the heir to the position, albeit at a different position. But both are playing considerably above their established track record. Is what we would expect them to hit going forward above average? Or is it simply closer to average than we have had at SS for years? Anyway, I am a bit skeptical that the Twins are suddenly awash in SS depth.

Didn't Ft Myers have a double header?

This is back of the envelope, but Santana has 236 AB, 49Ks, and 5 HR. So, 182 balls in play. .399 BABIP; 72 balls in play fell for hits. If he instead had a .300 BABIP, that would mean 18 fewer hits. 18 fewer hits out of 236 AB translates to a .254 BA.

Looking at this article: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140814&content_id=89633698&notebook_id=89633818&vkey=notebook_was&c_id=was and thinking that Asdrubal could be a potential FA target for the Twins this off-season. He wants to play SS, the Twins are very familiar with him, and he would likely be affordable from the Twins budget perspective. He has posted WARs as high as 3.5, although his projection for this year was a bit more than 2 (he's at 1.4 through this season). I'd call him a 2-WAR player heading into the off-season. He has a reputation as an excellent defender, although he grades out as slightly below average. He's hit as many as 25 HR, but should come out in the teens. His BA is usually in the 270's; the past two years he has had a lower average, which looks to be in part due to lower BABIP. His OBP isn't great, but .330 could be about expected. He will be 29 next year. If he is a 2-WAR player, that would mean paying him for 2-, 1-5, and 1WAR= 4.5 WAR over the next 3 years. At about $6mm/WAR, that would mean a 3-year, $27mm contract. With a couple of relatively down years, he could be a buy-low candidate. The question is whether he fits in the roster? Is he taking Danny Santana's position? I'm not totally sure. Depth at the up-the-middle positions is never a bad thing. I could envision Santana getting time at CF, AAA and MI over the next two seasons, before taking over SS in 2017 for a couple of years before Nick Gordon arrives. Anyway, thought I'd throw it out there for discussion. Thoughts?

14 game hit streak, dating back to June 18?

Well, surely we can all at least agree that Bartolo Colon deserved the Cy Young over Johan in 2005, right?

Nice tweet, glad he is doing ok. Curtiss trying to move from RP to SP this year...looks to be doing well.

What have you done to Kurt Suzuki?

Max Murphy--that kid just keeps doing well.

Well done Terry Ryan. Wasn't sure he would be able to unload Correia--was suspected they would need to just release him.

Was Andrew Miller more valuable to the Orioles than Kurt Suzuki? Because I personally would have love to trade Suzuki for Eduardo Rodriguez.

Guesses? My guess: Carl Pavano's deal. I'll withhold editorial comment.

I can't find it on the new site, but a few weeks back I said that the over/under on the total Twins' deadline trades should be set at 1.5, and we shouldn't be surprised by the under. I would endorse all three of your suggested moves. However, in the next nine hours, the chances of the Twins making three moves is miniscule. I'm still hoping they make the over (Suzuki), but I won't be shocked if they don't get there.

The Kernels are stalking Kane County?

The Kernels are popping!