AlwaysinModeration

I'm personally ready for the Twins to cave and trade Dozier for De Leon, Alvarez, and two nobodies. Just an FYI.

Ok, good. Before Tuesday 7:45pm. Thanks for the reassuring update. I would tend to believe the Twins have lost a decent amount of leverage since the initial 24 hours. If they agreed to the De Leon / Alvarez plus framework, there have been a multitude of reports an opinions offered, and almost none had that level / or said that would be too much. The Dodgers can certainly seem reasonable in holding to their line of only AAAA filler...or even waver on including Alvarez.

What about that Jeremy guy?

Actually, that is Dozier. You were probably confused by the flowing golden locks.

Umm, Chicken, didn't we go over that?

Here is what I don't get about this situation. Friedman is viewed as "stingy with his prospects." And from many accounts, the Dodgers have such a bounty of pitching prospects that they can fill up a whole rotation with excellence: Urias, De Leon, Buehler, Stewart, and in a while, and perhaps one of the best of all, Alvarez. Yet when I look at the roster and the transactions, I keep seeing the Dodgers buying pitchers for their rotation: obviously they've locked up Kershaw on a mega-contract, but then you have Ryu, Kazmir and McCarthy all signed through 2018 at various points for hefty contracts, and it hasn't slowed down, with Hill just signed through 2019 for a boatload more cash. I'm probably forgetting some. I've listed 10 pitchers, and of the first five, many are reportedly untouchable. They may be high on them and Friedman doesn't want to trade them, but are the Dodgers going to suddenly change gears, stopping signing veteran pitchers to big contracts? All this is to say it seems like they have a surplus of pitching--especially since they can and have seemed to fill out their rotation with veteran signings. They can buy on free agency what other teams expect their prospects to become. They can't buy a 2B like Dozier in free agency, though. So that is why they should pay a hefty price in pitching prospects to get him.

He's now the editor of the Baseball Prospectus annual publication, so he's legit. And his cohost...is one of the founders of this site.

Wonder what the answers would look like if it was only Dodgers fans? For example, I would guess many more would consider Bellinger, Alvarez and Buehler untouchable. The dream trade might De Leon and scraps, and the minimum acceptable might include Stewart? I think the Dozier WAR would be less, like 4.5/4, and the HRs might be less too, like 25. I have to assume that Twins fans overestimate Dozier's projections. Just guesses, though.

This is a stretch, but here goes: Joe Mauer put up a mediocre season (by his standards), but still netted 2.2WAR--according to Fangraphs--which at 8.5mm per WAR, is $18.7mm. Not too much below his contract, actually. And most importantly, he put another year (his third, I believe) between himself and that concussion. Let me remind people that Morneau took about three years before really coming back from his concussion...and then he won a batting title. Can Mauer follow the same path?

Brock Stewart had a very limited track record, but looks promising. He started 2016 at A+ ball, and rose three levels to get starts at MLB. He has a 93mph fastball, a great strikeout rate, and impeccable control. He's 25, a bit old for a prospect, and hasn't been on many prospect lists. However, that seems likely because he hasn't pitched much before getting converted from a hitter. He seems like he has a pretty nice floor, but I am not sure about the ceiling. Maybe the ceiling could be pretty high as well, but just not sure with such a limited track record, and limited pedigree. For some reason, I keep thinking of Aaron Nola, but with more velocity. Alvarez, in contrast, given his youth and distance from the majors, seems like he has a much lower floor and a much higher ceiling. He also has a very limited track record, but a much higher pedigree. $32million out of Cuba is certainly notable, as is the "easy triple digits." I'd prefer the much higher ceiling of Alvarez, but Stewart seems like he could be a decent alternative. Plus, if Stewart is in the deal instead of Alvarez, part of his "upside" is that maybe the third and fourth pieces would be much better. Say, Barnes and Lux? Or even better, Buehler?

Ah, that is right. You definitely narrowed to Alvarez before the 24 hours was up, considerably so. Now, did your source give you more clarity, or did the source say it was De Leon and Alvarez from the start? Why did you float Bellinger early on?

Well, if I recall correctly, you were cagey that the offer was De Leon and either of two highly rated prospects. Then you came back that it was either Bellinger or Alvarez.

"Rumor Has It" "Twist and Shout" (this is a special Casey Casum dedication that goes out to all those thousands of posters and millions of readers of Dave's thread) ...and, increasingly...the more time passes... "Dust in the Wind"

If you had to trade Daniel Palka and Zack Granite to get Ervin Santana, would you make the deal? Also, I see your point about those older players pitching well when they pitch, but the fact that they don't pitch as much is significant and a part of the risk.

Is Brock Stewart Aaron Nola to Jose De Leon's Kohl Stewart?

Sometimes I wonder what the TD holiday card would look like.

Two thought: 1-Manship was ranked WAY too low. 2-The positions prospects must have been amazing. (Or alternatively, "you should see the other guy!")

I think the numbers posted above paint a slightly different picture: 1)most of the pitchers with similar profiles of Santana start to decline in their age 34 or 35 or 36 age season, and most precipitously. And the vast majority were done by 37 with at least two years of below average performance. Now, Santana may buck that trend and pitch above average for two or more years. But he would be an outlier. 2) He posted an ERA+ of 124 last year, and was slightly above average in 2015 for half a season. In two of the three years before that, he posted considerably below average seasons (ERA+ of 90 and 74). I don't think consistent is the right word for him. But I agree with your conclusion that the Twins should trade him and look to get a couple of prospects that would slide into the Twins' 10-15 rankings. That would be great - maybe a bit low, but great. And I don't care if they are hitting or pitching prospects.

In order to provide some semblance of order, here are a list of questions: 1) Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable? Urias 2) How do you rank the following pitching prospects (feel free to include other names): Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield, Brock Stewart, Ross Stripling? De Leon Alvarez Buehler Stewart Sheffield Stripling 3) How do you rank the following hitting prospects (feel free to include other names): Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Yusniel Diaz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo? Bellinger Verdugo Lux Calhoun Diaz 4) Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece (add other names if you want): Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Trace Thompson, Andrew Toles, Scott Van Slyke? Any of them, if the first two are what DaveW says his source says. But Barnes at the top of that list, 5) Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like? No clue. Rookie ball or low A guys with flaws and upside? Quantity is important in this trade. 6) Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list? People have made a compelling argument for Calhoun to be on this list, but I don't know. 7) What is your minimum acceptable trade? De Leon, Buehler and Stewart 8) What is your dream trade (that does not include anyone you considered untouchable)? De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, and Barnes 9) Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day? Yes 10) What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018? 4.5 and 4 11) If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017? 26 Bonus: What do you predict the actual trade will be and when? De Leon, Alvarez, and two throw-ins we likely have never heard of...I'll guess Dustin May and Ismani Abdullah. January 3.

A few more notes: Doug Davis (106ERA+ age 29-33) posted a 108 ERA+ at age 33, then bombed to 57 over the next two years, done at 35. Steve Traschel posted a 107, then posted 88 and 94 in his age 35 and 36 season, playing sporadically at age 34 and 37, done at 37. Miguel Batista posted a couple of 103/102 seasons as a starter after 33, and became a solid closer for some of those years, lasting until 40. Javier Vasquez posted 81 and 106 in his age 33 and 34 seasons and then retired. Brad Radke, who posted a 110 ERA+ from age 29-33 posted a 104 at age 33, and then was done. Finally, Ervin Santana pitched a 124 ERA at age 33, with a 101 ERA+ from age 29-33 (including years of 74 and 90 in that stretch.). He's headed toward his rapid decline phase, although he might post another 100+ year or maybe two if he is lucky. He also has a history with PEDs, which may have helped him more in the past than going forward. The Twins should trade him for whatever they can get.

Of this list, I would say Peavy, Guthrie, Lohse, Millwood, and Loiaza are good comps. Peavy pitched a 101 ERA+ at 33, then pitched two more years, 108 and 74 at age 34 and 35. Guthrie posted a 132 at age 33, then went 102-95-72, done at 36. Lohse posted 133 at age 33, then went 115-107-68, done at 36. Millwood posted 88 at 33, then 127-81-115-90, done at 37. Loiaza posted 108 at 33, then averaged 83 and was done at 36.

Here you go, had to lower it to 650IP. Haven't looked at their age 33 or post age 33 results: Traschel 106 Liriano 106 D Davis. 106 AJ Burnett 105 Peavy 103 Beckett. 103 Kazmir. 102 Hammel. 102 Washburn. 102 JA Happ. 101 Suppan. 101 Guthrie. 101 Lohse. 101 ESantana. 101 Millwood. 101 Loiaza. 100 Wolf. 100 Rueter. 100 Harang. 99 Feldman. 99

Still have Hu?

I posted this before, but since this thread is specifically about De Leon, let me repeat it. If/when De Leon joins the Twins, the pair of Berrios and De Leon are going to need a joint nickname. I suggested Dos X Maquina, where the X, of course, stands for Puerto Rico.

Did the old guard ever seriously engage on offers for Plouffe, or work him to build a market for him? It's possible TR didn't "settle" for anything for Plouffe, but that doesn't seem like a true depiction of what happened with Plouffe. Yes, we should wait for the Falvey/Levine actual trade results to make judgments. But it appears to me they have already shown a vastly different approach to managing tradeable assets than Ryan ever did: identifying and being willing to trade the best trade chips at the height of their marketability, talking up their value, (trying to) engage multiple teams, setting high standards/expectations for a return. It's just a very different approach than what I'd grown accustomed to. We'll have to see what the results are, but regardless, it already makes me more optimistic about the future of the Twins org than I have been for some time.