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Doc Munson

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Blog Entries posted by Doc Munson

  1. Doc Munson
    Hindsight is 20/20. Who knew our offense would be THIS pathetic? Plus we did need to improve our pitching. but lets take a look at some recent trades and the impact of each.
    Lets get the big one out of the way early here.  Arraez for Lopez.  You have to give something to get something, and yes I think we all knew we were giving away the probable2023 batting champ, seriously??? .400???  Just imagine what he would be doing in our lineup?!?!!!  He would most likely be playing 1B so lets take a look at the Twins 1B stats. Arraez for Lopez (+prospects)
    Twins 1B = 9 HR 32 RBI  35 BB 80 K  251/357/435 slash line for a .792 OPS. nto horrible  NOTE MLB does not assign Runs when sort by position, but Would assume we would be near the bottom.
    Arraez =  2 HR  35 RBI  21 BB 15 K 400/450/490 slash line for a .940 OPS.  his 31 runs seems low for getting on base that much, but he gets on base!!!  and does not strike out!!
    Lopex has been decent. not spectacular, but #2 in AL with  110K, he hsa a top 16 in AL WHIP at 1.14. ERA is pedestrian 4.4o before tonight's tough outing. We were able to extend him which has some value.  Overall a decent #3 starter for a batting champ hitting .400?  that is a bit tough.  BUT we did get 2 prospects as well.
     Jose Salas. 20 yr old SS at High A. struggling, but a top 10 prospect in our system.  Byron Chourio, 18 year old in Rookie league... TBD
    RESULT? would still POSSIBLY do it, it had to be done but still hurt, now knowing how bad the offense is struggling it is a coinflip if I'd redo,  but fair enough.
    Tyler Mahle Trade. This one was 2022 but still counts as it is impacting 2023.
    Mahle had a huge injury risk before trading for him, so this is not revisionist history. this trade just straight up should not have been done!!! or at least not given up what we did.  What did we give up?
    Spencer Steer. versatile player. we probably didn't have much room for him, but he is having a strong RC campaign in Cinci. but again, redundant here so I understand including him.  P Steve Hajjar, with all due respect to Steve, a bit of a nothing burger here.  But what made me throw my computer (figuratively) seeing this trade was the inclusion fo Christian Encarnacion Strand. This kid is a BEAST. and should have been untouchable. career .325/388/614 for a 1.002 OPS!!
    This is a trade that should make GMs lose their jobs.  Without CES, I am ok with it. you trade a blocked above average prospect for a pitcher who is good when healthy but big injury concerns.  btu the CES makes this HORRID!!!
    Another 2022 that Many of us saw falling completely apart before the first pitch was thrown was the Chris Paddack trade.
    Paddack for Rogers and Rooker.  OK a bit of revisionist history here.  (on the Rooker side). I did actually receive a strike against me on Twins Daily here for my description on how easily his Paddack's health status would turn out.  I will not restate that here, but I will say it should have been very obvious!!!!
    Paddack was a lost season injury waiting to happen, and he happened.  Rogers, that FIRST year was DOMINANT!!!  but we are talking about this year, so who cares about that. Rooker did finally establish himself this year, although coming back to earth a bit after hot start. But Paddack was lost fro 2022 and for 2023, so again  HORRID trade as this was totally foreseeable.
    SO again a trade that may not get GMS fired, but should tighten the leash.
    Jorge Lopez for prospects.  OK this one I cant really hammer the team on, it was a pretty good move at the time, and Lopez pitched fairly well last year, but where we stand now could be the worst of the lot.  Lopez has issues (on the field. I do not criticize players off the field). he is nto a major league pitcher. Yennier Cano, one fo the prospects given up is DOMINATING in Baltimore!!!  this alone makes it horrid in retrospect. Imagine Cano & Duran!!  Cade Povich seems like a decent prospect, a high K pitcher, most likely reliever in the bigs doing fairly well in Baltimore system. adn a couple others  (one to watch in the futur eis Juan Rojas currently 19 year old injured) but to me this is purely a Lopez/Cano deal, and as it sits now, we had HORRIBLE results.
     
     Michael Taylor for 2 prospects.  Thi sone is a good trade, adn look sbetter when seeing how we are not going to play Buxton in CF (or does this make it worse? would we play Buck in CF if we didnt have Taylor???)  overall a good trade so far.
     
    So overall I have to say:
    Michael Taylor = B+
    Jorge Lopez = D possibyl F based on current situation
    Paddack = D (if we gace up more I would have given a F-
    Mahle = F-
    Pablo Lopez = C- (you knew what it would look like but had to do it)
    Overall trade grade for FO = D  maybe D+ due to Michael Taylor.
    So that begs the question... why should we trust this FO when making Moves that NEED to happen??
    Becasue overall any moves will be addition by subtraction.
    Future Move #1:  DFA Kepler. Ok go ahead and see if you can get cash considerations for him, but he has ZERO trade value. replace him with Wallner.
    Future Move #2 DFA/trade Gallo. so he has a DECENT OPS. but his K rate and .192 avg just cant play.
    Future Move #3 Trade Sonny Gray...  wait WHAT???  yes you heard me. he is about the only thing of value to trade on this team. He will not be back next year as he will command more than the Twins will be willing to pay. plus he HATES the short leashes pitchers get here with the Twins so he will choose elsewhere for same/less money. if we QO offer him in teh offseason, he will go unsigned anyways, as he will be 34 and nobody will give him a multi year deal at $20M+ with a QO tag associated.  so lets trade him now get some value. as this team is currently constructed he is a luxury. a #1 starter on a bad team.  yes we may win this bad division, but only to get bumped in first round (possibly swept again) we can get these same results without him, so trade him and get value!!!
    Future move #4 Buxton must play CF!!  Who cares if he stays healthy if he isnt producing? and we are losing with him in the lineup now so who cares ifhe gets injured and misses time by playing in OF.  AT LEAST 2 games a week he needs to be in CF. if it doesnt give the TEAM a spark, it could give the FANS a spark.
    Future move #5 Royce Lewis needs to play EVERY DAY!!  (assuming he is healthy, and I am guessing they doing "load management" with his 2 knee surgeries, but again at least give FANS a spark.
     
    I am leaving it with on field moves for now, but would not be opposed to losing hitting coach (high number of K's across the board speaks to team approach), trainer (we brought in a training guru but how many hammies have we had this year and other DL stints???) Head Coach (cannot pull starters after 75 pitches, cannot pinch hit a sub .200 hitter for your hottest hitter, cannot set a lineup against an "opener" only to pinch-hit for your starting DH after 2 innings.  and of course based on the trading scorecard GMs cannot trade away quality players for pitchers with known injury histories and expect history to not repeat itself.
     
     
    WOW that went way longer than I anticipated!!!! LOL
  2. Doc Munson

    Are we... TOO good?

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    I have come to the conclusion, as many other have very recently that the Twins are simply TOO good.   Is there another league we could be promoted to? I mean fo rthe fairness of all other MLB teams?
    Could we petition MLB to allow for a 10th and 11th position in the lineup?
    Hands have now been officially and sufficiently wrung with regards to how to get even more 1st ballot unanimous HOF players into this already legendary lineup.
    It was tough enough to find any spot for the historically dominant Alex Kirilloff. After all how fair is it to a player who as put up gaudy numbers such as the just north of .250 avg and darn near touching .700 OPS.  I mean he darn near hits triple digits in OPS+!!!  and thank the heavens we did because out of all fo the dominant bats in this lineup he single handed carried us to a "non-no hitter"!!!
    I mean what other team has the luxury of demoting the teams leader in RBI  to replace with a future HOF?
    A team SO dominant that have the luxury of NOT playing a Platinum Glove CF on defense, in order to allow us the luxury of DH who does not strike out 65% of his plate appearances!!!  That is like TWO THIRDS of the time is not a guaranteed out!!!
    Like we weren't a team with an embarrassment of riches already, We now have to figure out how to get yet another guaranteed lock of an All-Star, MVP, HOF player in Royce Lewis his ABs in the lineup within the next 20 days. He has already proven himself over the course fo a full 7.5% of a season that he is the next best player in the league!!  I mean the player so good we dumped our RBI leader has just over Lewis' number over the last YEAR AND A HALF!!!  let alone 7.5% of a season!!
     
    In all seriousness though, what do we do with Lewis fi he comes back raking in AAA?  If you look at the Twins top hitters average wise (who qualify with enough AB's)  we have 4. hitting...  Buxton leads the way at .239,  Larnach .221 (no longer on team) Miranda at .219 and Correa at .193.
    If he can be the spark that he was last year he needs to be here, and if he is who does he replace?
    His 2 primary positions he will be playing in minors 3B & SS are filled by Miranda and Correa.  they are not moving anywhere. Polanco at 2B is set. What about 1B? Miranda COULD move back over there, but that would mean Kirilloff so his injured, underperforming self.  Even though he injured himself in the OF there is still technically an option. Does he replace Gallo? Kepler? Taylor?  none of them are scared cows, but I m not sure I see it too much.  Does he replace DH? Well if we are set on keeping Bubble(wrap) Boy in the DH slot that aint happening.
    But maybe Lewis' arrival is exactly what the Twins are waiting on???  He will be back June 1st at the earliest, assuming everything goes as planned.  At the beginning of the season it was said that Buxton would be EASED back into CF by starting out at DH. Are they now too scared to play him there? and leave him at DH permanently? or would the 1st 2 months of the season be an adequate amount of time to ease Buxton in? Maybe they were anticipating Lewis back in June/July the whole time, and the plan was Buxton DH's until then, and then open up DH for Miranda, by having Buxton back in CF and Lewis playing 3B?
    If you are going to be wanting to get Lewis back on the team sooner rather than later, and he hasn't played ball in a year, then you want him to get reps  in the field where he will be playing on the big league level. and he will be playing SS/3B in the minors. That means either a rotation of SS/3B for Lewis with Correa & Miranda getting "rest days" as DH... which means Buxton back in CF,  or it means a set position which will not be SS, so it will be 3B with Miranda either moving to 1B or DH.
     
    With us being in 1st place, and our pitching being strong, a spot will not open up via trade.
     
    OF course way too early to start planning, btu "what if" Lewis comes out swinging???  What do you see the Twins doing to get his bat and his jolt in the lineup?
     
     
     
  3. Doc Munson

    Bailey Ober needs to be a Primary Starter!!

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely.  Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season.  Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation.  With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters".  and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters.  
    We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in.  Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez  are locks.
    Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle  is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer.  So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5?
    I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
    But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA  just under a 4:1  K:BB rate,  a 9.85K/9  and a 1.14 WHIP.  Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation.
    That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP..
    If we go by the numbers,  it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and  both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?"
    "Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options.  But should he???
    I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack.  Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone.
    With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark.
    Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation.
    The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.
  4. Doc Munson

    Who's on 1st

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    First off, it is very sad to see a fun, popular, and "kid friendly" player such as Arraez get moved. As has been said in many other places though, it was the right baseball move. Has enough time passed where we can ask what the impact will be on the roster?  if so... What is the impact of the Luis Arraez trade on the roster??  hehe
    Obviously 2 big areas are immediately impacted.  DH & 1B
    Who's On 1st?
    Obviously you have to start with Kirilloff. You would assume it is his to lose. Working on the impression the Miranda is 100% moving to 3B. There have been rumors of Yuli Guriel interest, but really if we even consider that, then we need to consider (close your eyes people) Miguel Sano as well.  Guriel was a 85 OPS plus which means he was 15% below average. No tworth a move in my opinon.  DO we move Kepler to 1B?  The down side of the Arraez trade is we are left with very little PROVEN comodity at 1B.
     
    My move is to reach out to Washington and check in on a Kirillof for recently signed Dom SMith direct trade. Can you trade a recently signed FA?? I dont know. short of that move I see it being Kirilloff.  Who do you see as the opening day 1B?
     
    DH is another impacted position,  however with more options, yet equally unproven options. Yes Buxton will take weekly DH ABs, Correa might as well in order to protect long term. I do not see a PURE DH bat on this roster except for possibly Wallner. Gallo is a big bat but supposedly plays some strong defense. Again like 1B there is not a ton of significant upgreads out there at DH.
    While I commend Falvie for having patience and getting a good deal for Arraez, the down side of such patience is that quality other options are no longer available.
     
    For the opening day primary DH, I am going to have to go ahead and go with Wallner, or maybe cheat and say a Wallner/Larnach platoon.  WHo do you see as opening day primary DH?
     
    AND if Kepler still gets moved, and there really is no need at this point as we have a pretty solid rotation, maybe for a bullpen arm???  but at this point with a set rotation we might as well go with a quality OF defense of Kepler, Gallo, Buxton.  BTU if he does still get moved,then you have to assume the entore OF/1B/DH logjam is releived and all 3 of Kirilloff, Larnach, adn Wallner are on the openign day roster.  right??
     
     
  5. Doc Munson

    OK... NOW it gets interesting

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    Assuming, he paases OUR physical... lol.  Nwo that Correa is signed How do the Twins use him this year? and how does it impact others?
     
    Check out the poll attached and let us know.
     
    IF you choose "other" please share what you think the Twins should do with him (or others).
  6. Doc Munson

    Twins talks w/ Correa have "begun to accelerate"???

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    Sorry for the quick double post, but just read an article at MLBtraderumors.com   that Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes have both reported this.  OK, so lets assume this happens.. what is the trickle down?
    #1 I say we go and also sign Nelson Cruz. pair them up!!! they both love Miranda and want to work with him!! :)
    But for those already on the team what does it mean?
    What does it mean for current future infield?
    We just traded for Kyle Farmer, does this now mean we will look to flip him somewhere? What Kind of SS/IF needy teams remain? and what could we get? For Royce Lewis this means SS is blocked, so he is now an OF candidate when he returns. Brooks Lee, he would also have otherwise most likely made his MLB debut this September, what is HIS new home? Coudl either of them move to 3B? well Miranda is slated for 3B, Could Miranda stay at 1B? What does that do for Kirilloff and Arraez?  
    What does it mean for veteran players?
    Signing Correa would show we are looking to contend. Do you want to contend with unproven players in OF such as Larnach, Wallner, Kirillof, Austin Martin, even Royce lewis who is out for a but still? or do you want to roll with Kepler? If the Twins make a FININCIAL follow up move then Kepler is gone as his $8.5M may be too much for potential equal numbers from any above... but again POTENTIAL.  You also do not trade a controllable young sparkplug batting champ if you are looking to contend, but then again look at the trickle down moves a Correa signing does.  if the option would be to put Miranda at 1B and have either Farmer, or eventually Lee man 3B then where does Arraez get his ABs?  Are you going to keep him as DH?
    What does this mean for prospects?
    We were already in a position where our near MLB prospects and current position players were going to be coming to a crunch. The OF/1B/DH trio where we have the above mentioned Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff, Austin Martin near ready, Royce Lewis when healthy is a go, Brooks Lee is a quick to the bigs player, not to mention players liek Edouard Julien who coudl be pushing for time. All while have roster spots fill by Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Gordon, Now Farmer (not including my desire to sign Cruz as DH  lol). That is a lot of MLB ready/near MLB ready talent and you hate to let them rot on the vine by keeping them all.  SO who goes?  iF Correa signs at least 3, maybe 4 of these players will not be with the Twins come opening day. they will be traded for pitching.
     
    If Correa was willing to move to 3rd in NY, would he be willing here? IF he is (and he will most likely at SOME point during career) then Id say the thing to do is...
    Correa pays 3B start with Farmer until Lewis or Lee are ready. Miranda plays 1B. Polanco gets to stay at 2B. This makes Arraez expendable (sadly) and he will be one of the guys with the highest trade value so you move him.  Trade both Kiriloff and Kepler, and the OF is Buxton Gallo and Larnach, with Wallner as DH (unless we sign Cruz).  You actually call Miami and see if they are interested in a BIG trade where we get multiple of there available pitchers. Say Max Meyer, and Pablo Lopez for Arraez, Kepler and Kiriloff.
     
    Anyways...
    How exactly do you see teh Twins addressing the redundancies if Correa DOES sign??
  7. Doc Munson

    Correa/Mets Deal Updated

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    So as I was thinking about my off teh wall deal to benefit from and help the Mets secure Carlos Correa, I thought of a way that a trade would be legal under current rules (presumably)
    The end result is still the same. it allows the Mets to offset the risk of the final couple of years of Correa's 12 year $315M contract due to the ankle.
    Currently there are deals that include PTBNL. 
    Currently the CBA allows for "cash considerations" to come into play to help offset the cost of salaries being moved from one team to the next.
    SO lets take those two known and accepted trade chips.
     
    The Twins trade Max Kepler (With the expectation that the Mets must immediately pick up the team option for him for 2024) along with recently signed Christian Vasquez. The Twins also send the Mets "Cash Considerations" in the amount of $50M.  Of course the Twins woudl need a significant return by trading away their starting catcher and RF  AND kicking in $50M to basically cover 100% of their salaries. Or at least as far as the trade goes that is why we are kicking in money, and nto to pay the final years of Correa's deal **wink wink**.
    In return the Twins get Francisco Alvarez, and Player(s)To Be Named Later.  lets say at least 2 if not 3 additional PTBNL. 
    That is a straight up trade that is fair and within MLB guidelines... I presume.
    If we can structure the $50M payout over time, then we pay $1M for each of the next 10 years, and then $20M each in year 11 & year 12. Of course this coincidentally coincides with the final 2 years of Correa's deal, and if it is front loaded the first 2 years of the deal at $33M instead of the $26.25 AAV and then the last 2 years are at $20M. Now the Mets have themselves some insurance against injury.  If it CANT be paid out like that, and has to be paid out over the course of the existing contracts, then we simply pay  $18.5M this year, $20M next year and $10M the third year, and it is up to the Mets to use those funds to offset Correas deal at the back end.
     
    The PTBNL must be chosen within 6 months. the MLB player draft is 7/9-7/11, so we agree in principle on a trade, but do not execute it until just before Spring training to allow for any player the Mets pick in the draft to be eligible to be a PTBNL.
    SO what kind of haul would we get in this scenario?  well lets assume whoever the Mets take in teh 1st round of the draft is a solid propsect.
    It would look something like...
    #1 Francisco Alvarez - the top prospect in all of baseball, and potentially secure our catching situation for the next decade. then 3 PTBNL
    PTBNL #1: Possibly Brett Baty, a MLB ready top prospect. he is a 3B/OF so somewhat redundant to what we already have but quality young depth is nto a bad thing!!!
    PTBNL #2: Lets assume whoever the Mets take in teh 1st round of teh draft.
    PTBNL #3: Lots of options, could go with big bats that are also near MLB ready like Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos,   Or could go super young with a prospect like 17 year old Simon Juan (compared to a young Byron Buxton/George Springer) to "layer arrivals".  OR could try a pitching prospect like Blade Tidwell.
    and while you could say the Twins cannot afford to pay out $50M. But there is a way you can rationalize it.  The Twins would have been on the hook for at least $40M, and the whole $50M if we would have picked up Kepler's option for next year at $10M. So if we would have been paying that for Vasquez & Kepler, and we have league minimum players in Alvarez, and one of Baty, Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff replacing Kepler, all at league minimum, and all being potential upgrades, then it really is a wash.
     
    The Mets can afford to move Alvarez, because they still have the #4 catching prospect who is also near MLB ready AND would have Vasquez in place for the short term.  And with Correa going to 3rd, Baty also becomes somewhat expendable. There was talk of him moving to OF, but they get very good defender in Kepler who has potential to be a good bat as well.  I would say a Correa/Kepler combo would out Produce a Alvarez/Baty combo for a contending team.  
    This is a deal that can get done independently of them signign Correa, but get done with the signing of Correa in mind for the Mets.
  8. Doc Munson

    3 Moves still available for the Twins this off season

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other.
    #1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario.  We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2...
    #2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace.
     
    #3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool.
     
    AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran).  Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.
     
  9. Doc Munson

    Joey Gallo?

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins
    I am sure at this point WHOEVER the Twins woudl go and sign a good chunk of us will complain.  At least it is a move, but does it really make sense?
    Gallo does not change the trajectory of the Twins, he could be decent, he could be good, but if he doesnt change the trajectory, is there really a reason to sing him? Don't we already have logjam... or at least a good number of options for OF/DH spots?
    Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner,   We have Garlick (expendable) on the roster, we have players at AAA who are close as well.
     
    Since 2015 here are his BA...  .204/.040/.209/.206/.253/.181/.199/.160  CAREER .199!!!!
    He hits less than Miguel Sano, actually strikes out MORE (if you can beleive that) so we pay him $11M.  
    Where does Gallo play? RF is his best position.  but we have Kepler.  He could be DH, but didnt we want to get away from having a primary DH?
    If you say, well that makes Kepler expendable yoru nuts!!!  We are now paying Gallo MORE then Kepler,   Kepler's BAD years are .220, that is a career year for Gallo.  I knwo batting average is not the biggest thing, but making contact and getting on base is!!
    Again, maybe Gallo has another career year at hits 40HR with a .230 avg.  and you want to talk about health???  2019 he played in 70 games, 2020 57, he did get in 153 games in 2021 and then 126 last year.
     
    So, no better than what we have (no better than Sano who we DFA), not a position of need, does not have a consistent history of playing 150 games.  OF COURSE lets go ahead and pay him $11M!!!  
    The banning the shift aint gonna do anything against K's.
    ANY sense that this FO has a clue is out the window... throw a low ball offer at Carlos Correa (relative to current market) and OVERPAY for Gallo.  BRILLIANT!!!
     
    Lets not pay $13M for Noah Syndegaard, lets pay $11M for Joey Gallo.
    Regardless of the results Gallo does this year, he could be MVP and I will stand 100% by the call that this is a HORRIBLE signing and shows incompetence. 
     
    Imagine that He was a draft pick and a prospect with the Rangers while Levine was in Texas just continues to show how myopic this FO is. There was obviously scouting  that had Levine like him to draft him, is he still stuck on those old scouting reports? does he think he can get the "true potential" out of him?
     
    I challenge ANYONE to provide ANY solid, coherent defense that says this signing is anything but horrid.  
     
    Anyways, LET's GO TWINS!!!
  10. Doc Munson

    Gallo.. 2 day lookback

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins
    I think it is only fair, after taking a step back, and letting things sink in a bit and let calmer heads prevail to review the Gallo singing after a 2 day "calming down" period.
    Thoughts on the signing after more deliberate thought process...  Same as the original. Bad signing!!  But may be not AS bad, and maybe not for all of the same reasons.
    First we have to ask ourselves... If Gallo singed for a 1 year $3M deal, would this signing look any different? I think a lot of people may even be applauding the signing. I hate to say it, but I may even give it some level of kudos at that price. If we are all honest, why should the money matter?  we are not paying it. As long as that remaining $8M gap does not prevent the Twins from signing a player they otherwise would have been able to sign. what do we care?  So given that context, I have to walk my original "HORRID" analysis, to.. "OK... Not bad".
    That evaluation though is based purely on a gamble on a potential decent player that you can either flip or try and resign at a reasonable price if it succeeds. (please no comments on he will leave just like Correa for bigger money elsewhere if he has a huge season. completely different scenarios, and he might, but who cares). When taking in a bigger picture, a roster/team building perspective, combine with historical decision making, I must once again downgrade to "Bad Signing" more so because it just doesn't make sense.
    I am not in the inner circle, so  I do not know what the Grand Plan is. but it is just hard to see one.
    The only other decent FA out there that could command decent money is Eovaldi  in my opinion. the $10M should not preclude the Twins from going after him with REALISTIC offers, not "Twin's Realistic".  Wil we look into Eovaldi? not sure, Should we? Probably.  But again Gallo's deal should not prevent this, and Gallo is not a pitcher, so lets look at how his signign fits the offense/defense.
    Yes he is/was a Gold Glover. mainly due to his big arm. and any big league player should be able to play either corner OF spot. My initial reaction tagged him as a RF, but yes he did play some left, and even if he didn't, he should be able to. SO assuming we keep everyone (not a given) he can play LF with Kepler in RF with Buck in CF. Gordon then I presume would be the primary 4th OF? If you were of the ilk that had the OF looking like   Gordon, Buxton, Kepler.  then this is an upgrade, as Gallo could be an upgrade over Gordon (assuming you are good with record setting K's).  If you were of the ilk that would be either Larnach or Wallner in the third OF spot, then the move is still a potential upgrade, but a bit less so. (And again leave out the "but they are on rookie scale contracts!!" as we have already determined the money shouldn't prohibit Twins from signing any remaining FA).
    SO where is my "Bad" coming from? 
    My overall sense of incompetence from the FO. Now remember you cannot directly control player performance. GAllo could be an MVP candidate, and some will say "SEE!!!", but just like in poker just because you win, doesn't mean you had the winning hand or made the right decisions. You call an All-in to put your stack at risk with a 1 outer and hit it on the river. You win, but that does not make it the right call.
    What do we lose by signing Gallo? We lose AB's from one or more of the following, Kirilloff, LArnach, Wallner. Each of which are aging prospects. Each of them may onyl be quality AAAA players, along the lnes of a Brent Rooker, but we owe it to our future to see if they can do anything when healthy. is Kirilloff's wrist ok? Or is he an injury wash? Can Larnach contribute over a full healthy season? Is he the hitter he was in May? or the hitter he was in June?  Can Wallner replicate his minor league success at the big league level? Where he was a nearly .900 OPS hitter? We most likely cannot get these answers for all of them with Gallo on teh roster taking AB's. and where this comes into play from a team building perspective is we need these answers for future roster development. if 1 or 2 of these guys can be consistent quality MLB contributors, then that means we know we have them as part of our core for the next 4-5 years at cost controlled prices. This means we know #1 we do not have to fill that position in next years FA group, and #2 we now have that much more $ to spend in a fresh new FA class next year. And the cost per contribution gap, assuming one or more of these guys can contribute, would have us keep one of the 3 over paying Gallo.
    If Gallo has a career year, he may resign here as our "prized FA next year" but he may sign elsewhere. and GAllo could have had his career year with another team, still allowing us AB's for our prospects and we could sign him as FA next year. 
    with a dearth of LH hitting OF, this move SCREAMS of additional moves to come. IS it trading Kepler? is it trading some of the prospects listed above? any follow up moves would be the key to this signing.
    And finally the "feel" of Gallo on this club,  TWins fans have been utterly exasperated over the performance of Miguel Sano over the last few years. He coudl be on fire and carry a club single handedly for weeks, and then without notice suddenly hit .025 and strike out 65% of the time.  DFA'ing Sano seemed like a change of philosophy, and then we go and sing Gallo who has significant Sano-like tendencies. Yes big power, and I am told when he is on he is ON!!  but also K's at historic levels.
    All in all, Gallo will not be BAD, he will play a good OF, most likely hit a lot of HR, and K a lot. Also the $11M while an overpay is inconsequential as it does not preclude any other signings. the final judge if this signing will not in my opinion be the results Gallo puts up, but rather what other follow up moves are done by this FO. SO after being an initial "HORRID" to a "Still bad!", through the therapeutic process of writing this, I am going to go with a... "meh". If this was a move that leads to other moves that result in truly impactful move(s), then will change to a positive outlook, if we stand pat then this goes back to "bad", if the follow up moves involve trading for pitchers with KNOWN injuries such as Paddack, then goes back to "HORRID".
    Ultimately I am realizing, that based on past performance (of the FO not of the players)and decision making, that I just do not trust the FO to make any sort of competent moves.
     
    But maybe to test my own theory, in a future post I will look back at all of the signings/trades to grade the decisions.   Are they incompetent as they seem? or are they just unlucky?
     
  11. Doc Munson

    the Anti- Correa move

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins
    More and more it is looking like the "Nuclear Option" is the only way the Twins will ever improve.
    With rumors now circulating of Yankees in on Correa as well as other big spenders, and rumors circulating about a $400M contract. the Twins must SPRINT to the door and get out!!!  That is very sad, as I was actually thinking the Twins actually get a decent deal done around the $300-320M mark.
     
    I had shared an option in previous posts, and it nwo onyl seems even MORE the right way to go.  HELP THE YANKEES!!!
    Joel Sherman is saying he believes the Yankees will release Stanton in a couple of years, that is eating MILLIONS, if this is potentially true, then why no let him go NOW and NOT have to pay millions.
     
    Yankees signed Judge, if they want Correa at nearly $400M, AND want Rodon in the rotation, we can still help make this happen, but because it would be waiving the white flag on Correa it would have to be even sweeter for us!!!
     
    AS mentioned in other posts, we take on...
    1) Stanton and his large remaining contract. but we renegotiate opt outs for him after EVERY year in order for him to waive his NT clause.
    2) Donaldson, but the Yankees remain on the hook for any potential $6M mutual option that may get picked up in 2024.. No, I don't want Donaldson, but we flip him for a one f those big nachos in a batting helmet. Someone would take him on, especially if they could get him for FREE next year.  Maybe Boston?? Donaldson gets to stick it to the yanks and if he plays for Boston while getting paid by Yanks, that is always fun!!
    3) Aaron Hicks and his remaining contract. would be tough sledding being able to flip this deal, and would be on the books in future years at $10M as well.  (BUT IF WE CAN GET VALUE ITS DOABLE)
    That is about $63M
    Those are the bad contracts we have to eat. Now for good stuff.  In order to incentivize us to take on all those years and dollars, and more importantly allowing the Yankees the freedom to go after Correa AND Rodon. , the Twins also get...
    1) Luis Severino, and his 1 year of control at $15M.  This gives us a potential Ace, yes he has health issues, but we are only committed for 1 year, and if he proves healthy its a steal. PLUS it frees up another $15M for the Yanks bringing the cash clearance to about $78M (EASILY enough for Rodon and Correa!!!)
    2) Anthony Volpe... Untouchable you say??  well if you sign Correa then Volpe is redundant. plus we demand big time prospects for clearing teh cap space!!
    3) speaking of big time prospects, we also demand Jasson Dominguez.  again have to give up big pieces to get big pieces
    4) Luis Gil.  Gil is a big armed prospect (former Twins prospect) who is MLB ready and would add more depth
    5) Final piece is either Roderick Arias or Josh Breaux. Arias is a high ceiling infielder you can never get enough of, and Breaux is an MLB ready young catcher (albeit not LH).
    What do the Twins give up???  the answer is basically very little.  let say Kepler,  I mean he is a LH with Yankee Stadium 81 games per year. and then maybe throw in Arraez (like an All-Star batting champ is a throw in). Maybe a prospect going back to make it look more even
     
     
    SO why does this work for both?
    Simple;;
    Yankees: It allows the Yankees to clear bad contracts of players they want gone in Hicks and Donaldson, It gets them out of the Stanton contract and he has never really fit in NY. and it allows them the roster and cap space to sign both Correa and Rodon without impacting luxury tax. They are set up for the foreseeable future, and can afford to move prospects who are now blocked, and after all... "prospects are suspects until proven otherwise".
    The Yankees are currently at an estimated $248M payroll, signing either or both of Correa/Rodon would push them crazily past the highest penalty tier, and as repeat offenders would pay an additional $40+M in penalties, not to mention the loss of bonus pools and draft picks.
     
    Why do the Twins do this?
    OK so lets assume we are able to somehow flip Donaldson, for little to nothing in return. Maybe even sending a marginal prospect away in addition. That is a wash. swapping Arraez & Kepler for Severino is essentially a wash financially after Arraez Arb win. so that means teh Twins are taking on a net $42M dollars which brings the estimated payroll to just $135M which is still $14M below last years payroll!!  and what do we get for this payroll?  we get a big RH bat we need who would be primary DH but could play some OF (and with the chance he may opt out at any year releasing us from paying him to teh end). We get a crowd favorite back (but for how long would he be a crowd favorite now) who can play backup CF. we get to add a potential dominat arm to the rotaion, AND we get absolute stud prospects in Volpe, Dominguez, Arias, to go with our already good list of prospects. This sets us up to have the next wave of cheap young players to extend a window or use as trade material for the young top pitcher we cannot afford on the FA market.
     
    Imagine a lineup in 1.5 years of Volpe, Lewis, Dominguez, Miranda, Buxton, Stanton and if Kirilloff can hit potential and get rid of that wrist, and if Wallner/Larnach can hit. That is a great young lineup!!!
    yes, this seems crazy, but seriously, if we lose out on Correa, what else you gonna do to make an impact?
     
  12. Doc Munson

    Twins next move... Punt

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins
    No, the sky is definitely not falling, but a an organization it might as well be. the Twins are in the worst place possible an organization could be. in between reload and rebuild. I will try and stay on point and not go down the hole of Correa, but in all honesty it was a huge reality check. As much as the Twins wanted to make it seem like they actually COULD compete with other teams in the FA market, they simply can't... or maybe won't. The Twins 10 year $285M is typical "Twinspeak" for "we were really serious and in on him". I can't necessarily even blame the Twins, BUT with deals made to Judge, Turner and Boagarts. any offer that didnt start with a "3" was not even close to being competitive, and the Twisn knoew that. let alone an AAV of $28.5M??   Given the current market conditions, just simply calling it what it was, it was not a real offer.  It was "We are REEEEEEEEEAAAALY interested in you and want to build a franchise around you... if you can do it for a 25% discount".  but anyways.... that is over, and the question now is... what is next???
     
    What can the Twins do? pieces have already come off the board.  DO we make a run at Dansby? ok possibly, and should be cheaper, but at this put the same 10 yr $285 might not even get it done for gosh sake. the Twins will be in on him, but only for an AAV of about $22M, in other words, in it just enough to not be relevant. There are really few, if any, other position players that could make an impact, so assuming no Dansby, it is Farmer bridging to Lewis/Lee.
    from an offensive perspective, we are day old mashed potatoes.  I am a perrenial optimist on Buxton, so I think he has a full healthy and productive season. but other than Buck?? Lets take a quick peak around the diamond.
    1B = Kirilloff? Arraez??  Either way a decent player but nothing to write home about
    2B = Polanco . another average to above average 2B, not moving any needles though.
    3B = Miranda = OK the kid has potential, but it is just that potential, relying on potential kills.
    SS = Farmer = a serviceable but milqutoast player.   Quick!!! Who did I just say our SS is??  10:1 you had to look back,  see!!
    RF = Kepler = assuming we keep him. a good defender but a liability at the plate, maybe he can improve with no more shifts, but more likely he benefits from no shifts on another team
    CF = Buck = You knwo I love him
    LF = Larnach? Wallner? G-Cinco?  all a whole lot of "Meh"
    C = Jeffers and whats the new guys name?
    DH = One of the guys listed above frm other positons that may be able to hit 18-23 HR.
    A great big nothing burger on offense.
     
    Pitching you say?
    Well the only real upgrade out there is Rodon, and we just proved again how we will not dip our toes in the deep end of the pool. and to be honest, I wouldn't either here Two healthy years in a 10 year career do not a 5-6 year high AAV make!!  stay away, but even if he is worth the money. He would be the lipstick to this lineups pig. WE actually have an OK rotation, but still could help it.  But another signing tells you just how much the Twins will not sign FA pitching. Noah Syndergaard just signed a 1 year deal that could max out at $14.5 with incentives.  If there was ever a contract that screamed Twins it would have been this, but they couldn't even get something like this done.
     
    SO given where we are at, what is oen to do? PUNT!!  DO NOT trade top prospects for "mahle-like" pitching.  lets take our lumps and "let teh kids play"
    Sonny Gray will not be on this team when we contend again. (Heck even if he had 3 more years of control he wouldn't)  TRADE HIM
    Kenta Maeda also on teh last year, wont be here next year... TRADE HIM!! (although maybe at teh deadline, let him hopefully pitch well in teh first half.
    Max Kepler si getting pricy fo rproduction, we have plenty of redundant players behind him... TRADE HIM!!  Again though maybe midseason as the no shift rule hopefully helps his numbers increasing value.
    I woudl say "insert any other 30+year old player" TRADE HIM, but that is the scary part, we have nobody else we can even trade!!!
     
    so 2023 has instant become a "throw all teh prospects against the wall and see what sticks"
    And the sad thing is if we do NOT trade Gray, Kepler, Maeda, etc.  then we will be even FURTHER behind th e8 ball next year when they are both gone...
     
    BUT WAIT!!!!  maybe... just maybe I stumbled upon the FO plan, we are just saving up all of our cash to make a "serious" run at Shohei next offseason!!!
  13. Doc Munson

    Top 3 FA Rule 5 moves for Twins

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    With the deadline for finalizing 40 man roster in advance of the Rule 5,  There are some very cheap, low risk high reward type players out there.  These are right in teh Twins wheelhouse.  Gamble on the cheap and see if you hit the lottery.
    So the first one isn't a FA or rule 5 but he is the type of player that COULD be.  1B/OF Dom Smiht of the Mets.  Dom is a GG caliber 1B.  This kid actually CAN hit. He has just never been given consistent ABs in a consistent position in the field being behind Pete Alonso on teh Mets depth chart.  Between 2019 & 2020 while playing in 139 games (close enough to a full season equivalent). he hit .299 with a .936 OPS. 31 doubles and 21 HR.  and struck out less than 25% of the time.  Now at 27 years old, he is no longer a "cornerstone" player for the Mets and could be had relatively cheaply via trade.  Why do we need him? I mean we have Kiriloff coming back healthy (hopefully), we have Miranda (possibly.. unless 3B opens up) Arraez was an AS 1B, but is he true 1B?   I would have no problem getting Smith even if it meant Kiriloff is "blocked".
    The next 2 are both available ot be plucked from teh Angels.
     
    First is Touki TOussaint.  Touki was DFA'd to make room on 40 man roster. CLAIM HIM!!!!  He has been flashy and dominant in short stretches in his career.  He is a perfect Twin. he can start or relieve. His control is his main issue, but he also has a big lively arm.   GO ahead an claim him. Low risk high reward.
     
    FInally an even bigger stretch, is to make a claim via the Rule 5 draft.  Draft Jordyn Adams. an OF  from the Angels system. Normally I would say this type of move should ONLY be done by a non contending team.  Taking a flier on a player who is clearly not ready for the big leagues, but keep him as a bench player anyways. Who cares if you lose? you get a potential player put him on roster all year and then develop him the following years.  He does strike out a bit, but after striking out nearly 42% of the time last year he cut that rate down to just under 29% his .238 avg still leaves something ot be desired, but it was an improvement over his .217 the year before... AND he improved from .228 to .249 after the promotion to AA. Bu treally there is one reason he should be in play. His truly elite speed, a true 80 on a 10-80 scouting scale.  With upcoming rule changes shifting more of a focus back to a speed and hitting game vs pure power game, these are the kind of players you want to have. Claim him, let him take a bench role, and 4th/5th OF type slot. perfect pinch runner, and his defense is elite in the OF with his speed. (arm not as much), but again SPEED SPEED SPEED!!!!.  Let him be a back up, occasional starter and bat him 9th. He could be a Jarod Dyson type player. just an absolute pest  a pinch runner where you scream from the dugout "GO ON THE NEXT PITCH" and he can still swipe the bag. Do NOT underestimate the difference the bigger bases will make when it comes to the value of speedsters. Bunt hits will be at there highest total in decades, stolen bases will too.  And hey, you catch lightning in a bottle and he is a Akil Baddoo type.
     
    These moves will cost next to nothing from a payroll perspective.  And these are exactly the kind of players you build a TEAM with. they wont be starters (Dom would), but they will contribute.  and seriously who do we have that would be any significantly better than them?  a Adams will cost you a Garlick, but if we are relying on Garlick our season is tanked anyways.
     
     
  14. Doc Munson

    Lets go big!!

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    There have been a number of wild posts that are not based in any sort of reality. This is another of those.
    Twins should sign Verlander, Correa (I would prefer Turner but let's stick with Correa), and Judge. Because of course it is only that easy.  lol...
     
    But.., they CAN afford it.
    Reason #1, 
    Verlander's deal will be no more than 3 years, so that will come and go before you know it and not impact long-term roster building.  the other 2... well that is a different story.
    Reason #2
    A with any other Twins roster, we do not have many other big contracts on the books, and we have some young guys coming up who will be on the cheap for a few years.
    3B = Miranda has 5 years of control
    1B/OF = Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner  1 or 2 of these guys should stick around for the next 4-5 years on the cheap.
    CF = Buxton is here, and contract could be pricey, but that just means he is playing MVP caliber,
    2B = Arraez the batting title and AS will give him a good raise but still 3 years of ARB. (And could be a great trade piece in another year with another big season, if Lee/Lewis ready)
    Prospects = Speaking of Lee & Lewis. Lee is a recent draft pick but showing he is the real deal and should/could move fast. the "should" is other organizations would fast track him, the "could" is because, well this is the Twins and he is not 24 yet so he may not be ready. where to play??? 2B? 3B? SS? OF?
    Dsposables = Kepler, Polanco (sorry, but yes this one hurts me too) Neither are overly expensive, btu there are just simply better, more cost effective options. As mentioned, Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach all could put up similar, if nto superior offensive numbers at a lesser salary. Defense maybe not, but if we get Judge then really this is moot.  But Kepler should be gone regardless.  Polanco was still a quality player, and I would not give ANY thoughts of moving him if it were for Arraez, Lewis & Lee. Arraez played 1B out of necessity. That is not a long term home. neither is 3B with Wallner, or SS with Correa (or Lewis or Lee) so if we keep Polanco, then where exactly does the AL batting leader get his ABs?  This is why you mov a fairly valuable 2B in Polanco for some more young pitching..
    Onthe pitching side we have few big contracts. as well. Sonny Gray for $12.7 is chump change for an ace. Maeda at $3M+ incentives, Ryan & Ober are both still pre-arb. and lets say Mahle gets a small raise to about $7M in arb. that is a 5 man rotation totaling around $24M.
     
    So roughly (leaving holes for the three mentioned above) using MLBTraderumors ARB estimates
    1B = Kiriloff = $750k
    2B = Arraez = $5M
    SS = ??
    3B = Miranda = $750K
    LF = Larnach/Gordon = $750K
    CF = BUxton =$15M
    RF = ??
    C = Jeffers =$750K
    DH = Wallner = $750K
    That is a lineup minus SS & RF for around $24M
     
    Combine that with a rotation of around $24M and factor in a bullpen for around $10-12M.
    and you have a good young team at about $58-60M with 3 holes left to fill. Assuming a similar year end total of about $160M. and that leaves about $90M (after filling other bench roles)
    Now plug Correa and Judge into that lineup and it is a scary good lineup.
    plug Verlander into the top of this rotation and if Ryan continues to pitch well (and has Verlander as a mentor) that bumps Sonny Gray to our #2 starter, Rayn is a phenomenal #3,  Maeda as a #4 is outstanding, and Mahle/Ober as a #5/6.  yeah Ill take that.
     
    Of course this WON'T happen.. All  am saying is it COULD!!
     
     
  15. Doc Munson
    I believe I had shared this thought last year, If I hadn't., I thought I'd throw it out there for your thoughts While a draft lottery for the top 6 positions is at least a start to preventing tanking, still there is an incentive to losing. Albeit not as great as before, btu ask any team, would you rather have a16.5% chance (like teams with worst records) or a 0.9% chance like the Twins have.  I am guessing any GM that wants to rebuild will take the 16.5% chance and tank.  The way to prevent tanking is not to just disincentivize tanking but rewarding winning.  
    Fielding a poor club with a small payroll is a CHOICE, it is not something that just happens. While low payrolls do nto 100% guarantee poor results (see Guardians) it does correlate pretty darn well.  of the 3 teams with teh best shot at the #1 pick (16.5%) they finished 30, 27 & 19 in payroll. 
    In order to incentivize winning, you simply have a MLB Draft Tourney at the end of the season.  However, you want to do it. Single elimination tourney, All best of 3, heck even a 2 game series with run differential as a tie breaker. You have the best team to NOT make the playoffs get byes. and they get home field for all games.  The winner gets the #1 overall pick, the loser of "title" game gets 2nd, Winner and loser of 3rd/4th place game/series get 3rd/4th. and all other are based on how they finished in the draft tourney (come up with whatever rules you want, they can't be any more random than a lottery anyways, LOL).
    This incentivizes winning, which would drive up payrolls, Before the start of the season do you think the A's, O's (surprised everyone a year early) Pittsburgh really thought they would contend?  No, they were content having micro sized payrolls knowing they would get top draft picks to boost their future.  Do you think they would stay at $61-85M team payroll if they thought that would field them a team that would get them the 10th overall pick in the MLB Draft?   OF course not.
     
    And on the plus side, a MLB Draft Tourney currently does not exist, which means TV contracts for these games also do not exist, which mean it is yet another money-making TV contract they can put out to the highest bidder.  Make more money AND prevent tanking by incentivizing winning???  Now THAT is a win/win.
     
    I am curious, how exciting do you think a single elimination tourney for the top draft pick would be? Would you be interested in watching your team in such a tourney?
  16. Doc Munson

    Carlos Correa Option. Would this be legal?

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    I am not an expert on the MLB CBA, but I am wondering if something like this would be legal...
    Could the Twins and Correa come to an agreement where he opts in for 2023, and teh Twins agree to allow him to negotiate with other teams for a long term contract?
     
    Hasnt something like this happened before with disgruntled (not the case with Correa, he just wants long term deal) players who "demand trades"?  Maybe it is only in other sports, like NBA, but I could swear I remember stories of where teams allow players to speak with other teams to try and get trades done. and they basically pre-negotiate new deals in advance of a trade.
     
    If this IS legal, then Correa coudl lock in a guarantee 1 year deal at another $35M, and then still negotiate with other teams. and then if he finds a team who is willing to give him the long term deal he wants he comes back to the Twins who either get to match it, or finalize a trade.
     
    Correa gets a guaranteed starting point (and possibly some leverage), and the Twins position themselves to still get a fairly decent haul in a trade.  its a win/win.
     
    But I guess if it was legal, it would have been done already.
  17. Doc Munson

    High Marks??

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    OK, Honestly I really do not enjoy being critical or a pessimist.  But I nearly did a spit-take when I saw Dave St Peter give the Twins FO and "Falvine"   "High Marks".  Seriously, from what benchmark can you give this FO high marks?
    Can you blame them for the injuries and the failures down the stretch?  Well yeah, at least a little bit. They trade for TWO starting pitchers that had injury histories.  Anyone could see Paddack's injury coming, and it was called here and many other places at the time fo the trade. No Monday Mornign QBing here.  Mahle had his shoulder. yet we gave away some good prospects for pitchers with injury histories, so yes, you can.  
     
    They did sign some OK pitchers, Archer, even though could not go past 4 innings was serviceable most fo the year, and Bundy was also serviceable. but nothing overly exciting, and neither at this point is on the Twins moving forward, so still left in the same position pitching wise as last offseason (ok maybe a little better, should have Ryan, Ober, Gray, Maeda)
    Our position players are in a state of flux at best.  Kudos for signing Correa, but he is gone. Sanchez and Urshela were decent, and you cant fault them for Buxtons contract, that was a pretty good signing, regardless of what BUxton does. 
    A couple good young players, Miranda.. Coudl Wallner be decent?
    otherwise top prospects busted for various reasons injury Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnach,  and some just didnt pan out.
    So we made some decent moves, and our Major league club overall was good but fell completely off map at the end with little momentum or positivity going into th e offseason.  SO maybe they receive "marks" but "high marks"  they were average at best!!
     
    Well maybe they have put our Minor League program in a stronger position...
     
    Well MLB has our system ranked 23rd.  down from #12 as recently as 202 mid-season rankings.  and #8 in 2019 with (Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach as the keys).
    So you sign ONE top of the shelf FA, who will be gone after this year,  a couple pitchers off the scrap heap, deal some top talent for injured pitchers (and one quality starter in Gray) to field a below .500 team, all while dropping your minor league system from #9 to #23 and that earns High Marks?
     
    I just have oen question...
    Mr. St. Peter, can you do my next performance appraisal for my end of year bonus???
  18. Doc Munson
    Both Judge and Ohtani are having potentially historic seasons, which one would you give MVP to?
    Judge:
    Has hit 60, will break the AL (and TRUE) HR mark of 61.  He also while absolutely running away with HR and RBI title could be having a triple crown season.
    Leads league in...
    HR, RBI, BB, AVG (as of yesterday), OBP, SLugging, OPS, WRC+, XBH, WAR, and has 16 SB. plus Yankees are in 1st place, with him being the major reason why.
     
    Ohtani:
    While "just" a DH when hitting has added value as a 2 way player.
    P
    203 K, 2.47 ERA,  14 W, which is 21% of team wins.
    HITTER
    4th in HR w/ 34  at 92 RBI with abotu 12 games to go.
     
    could be 1st ever 200K/100RBI player!!!
    How can a 
    15 win, sub 2.50 ERA, 200K, 35 (or if he gets to 40HR), 100 RBI pitcher/Hitter NOT win MVP?  yet it could happen.
     
    ONE historic season will nto be MVP.
     
    Who is your vote for MVP?
     
    Kills me to say, but I think mine is Judge
  19. Doc Munson
    Everyone has their own opinions, and I LOVE debating each side.
    In discussion one commenter (Seth Stohs) Who I love reading his stuff and so should you!!! look up his posts they are great!!!  basically asked "what does "no heart" look like on TV"?
     
    Well, win or lose against teh Angels tonight we are being shown the answer.  Yes people can make errors. That is not playign without heart, but allowing errors to compoun dis a part of that.
     
    I luned in late, and literally turned on the game right as the #9 hitter made contact in teh top of the 4th.  It is now the top of the 5th.  so one inning. This is what I have seen.
    I will again preface this with I hadnt seen teh first 4 innings, so we could have done soem great things!!
    #9 hitter pops up to short right-center. High, lazy pop-up. Palacios (2B) Celestino (CF) Wallner (RF) all slowly jog toward teh ball and each watch it drop untouched in the middle of them. Now they are all young, and have not played a ton at the major league level, let alone with each other. But you HAVE to have a major league standard, and comin off teh heels of losing 17 of 23 and riding a 6 game losing streak, including 4 straight against even WORSE teams, you cannot allow this.  SOMEONE of that group of three had to be removed from the game, if for no other reason than to say "This is not acceptable". I dont care who it is. I would pick whoever you think can handle that "tough love"  I would choose either Celestino or Wallner.  This ultimately did not result in runs scoring, but that is not the point.
    THEN 
    to start the next inning, we decide to pull Joe Ryan after 4 innings and 69 pitches.  Here is where my "I didnt watch the earlier parts" comes in, maybe he was injuerd, maybe he was struggling, but thisis where you build heart!! While we want to win, what is the consequence of a loss now? Now is when creating a culture, settign teh standard is more important than any single win. This is when you let Ryan stay out there exactly BECAUSE he may not have his best stuff. NOW is the time you let him work through struggles, in a meaningless game, so that when there is a game that DOES mean something he knows he has been through games without his "A stuff" and can still get innings and win. This is an opportunity to let your coaching staff see what the kid has when he has 80-90-God forbid 100 pitches  with subpar stuff.
    THEN...
    Same inning, lazy fly to left field, Cave comes in to make the catch  and it pops out of his glove into the stands for a double. Again mistakes can happen, (and to be fair to Cave he did bust his ass on a triple)
     
    But in the span of 1 inning you see poor play in the field, perceived lack of hustle, or communication, poor (in my mind) managing decisions, and THIS is why it looks liek we have a team playing without passion or without heart, no pride, or just no understanding of what is acceptable, ro no consequences for not meeting expectations.  Just plain ol' bad baseball to watch.
     
    And of course this could just be one bad inning in a season long battle and even the best team have innings like these, This just seems to be the exception rather than the norm. And it makes me sad.
     
  20. Doc Munson

    This team has no heart

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    For those of you who have read any of my previous posts, I may at times be critical of decisions being made, whether that is Falvine, or Baldelli.  I NEVER get personal.
    Watching the last few weeks though there is only one way I can describe this team. This team has NO HEART!!! I am not in the locker rooms and I am sure the players are "trying their best" but their is zero heart on this team.
     
    Yes there have been a ton of injuries, Yes we have back ups to the back ups in some postions. Still that is no excuse to not put up a fight.
    So we struggled a bit and dropped out of 1st place. No worries we had 8 games against Cleveland, we still controlled our own destiny. We lost I believe 7 of the 8. And we lost them in pathetic fashion.
    OK so we lost 7 of 8, at this point the season for all intents and purposes was done at that point. If we did not show any grit when losing to Cleveland, it is our loses to KC that demostrate we also have no heart.  We just roll over and quit. This is NOT the sign of a championship team, and people associated with this should not be around next year!!
     
    I am speaking to you Baldelli.  Yes, there are a ton of excuses. Injuries, roster construction, etc. and yes he had won the division multiple times, but the decision making this year was horrendous. How much of this was the FO and Falvine forcing his hand? I cannot say. But let's give Baldelli the benefit there, that he was forced to consistently take pitchers out of the game after 60-70 pitches. I could see that at the beginning of the year, when building arm strength. I can see that with pitchers who had proven they can no longer go 7 (Arhcer). But when you do not let  pitchers build up innings or pitch counts over the course of the season the young pitchers will never learn to see a line up that dreaded 3rd time. ( I mean is a 27 year old Sandy Alcantara THAT much more advanced than the entire Twins rotation? where he can see a lineup a 3rd time and be just fine??? let alone throw 5 complete games and average over 7 innings per start?) So even if Baldelli was forced by above to limit innings. That cannot explain his pathetic decisions and use of the bullpen.  and even if you can forgive that, the biggest failure is he has allowed, and nurtured a soft team to remain soft. Again I am not  in the clubhouse, but can I see just ONE post game interview after a pathetic loss where he shows some anger? some frustration? some level of accountability towards his players? Some FIGHT???
     
    I hate to give players a pass, but when you have weak leadership you get weak results.
    Was Buxton THAT big of difference? if so then he needs MVP votes. I thought Correa was known as a strong leader??  and maybe he was, but with no other team leaders hwo can one guy hold it together?
     
    Again from an outsiders persepctive.
     
    Gary Sanchez didnt show much leadership. Max Kepler Didnt show much leadership, the young guys cant be expected to fill the leadership void.
     
    Arraez seems to play with excitement or a chip, or at least a spark, may not be leadership, but at least it is with heart. Nick Gordon while he would make some defensive mistakes, semed to play with some heart, Miranda seemed almsot like a leader by default, while he put up decent numbers, you cannto expect a rookie to take control of a clubhouse or a team or set the tone (although Lewis was actually doing that as a rookie before he got hurt).
    This team a complete rebuild, and I do not think that is just a knee-jerk reaction to a bad stretch. Philosophically this team is not built to win. 
    We have a couple strong arms in the back of the bullpen,  we have the POTENTIAL for decent middle/long relief, if we do not over use them. We need to focus on starting pitchers who can go 7 innings consistently. Who really cares if they are nto as "dominant" the third time through the lineup???  They will still get the outs, and maybe they allow 1-2 runs the 3rd time through the lineup.  but if they pitch a full 6th and 7th, and give up 2 additional runs, that should not impact the result of EVERY game. Many games we will be up more than those 2 runs, use that cushion to let pitchers learn and develop. There will be times where we are down by a good chunk of runs. No tthat we want to give up on a game, but if we are down, then who cares, let the pitcher learn and develop during "probable losses". This should be especially true for organizations who "manage by numbers". They make decisons based on Win Probability. the "probability" that a releiver will be more successful than a starter the third time through. Take that same focus on the flip side. if the "win probability" is low, then use that time to develop, I mean hey, your a "probably" going to lose anyways right???
     
    We need to drastically change the culture. That starts with teh head coach (since Falvine aint going anywhere).
    And we should have PLENTY of cash to go after big time starters and players who have shown to care about winning.
    Correa aint staying around this mess. That is $35M
    Sano and his $10 are gone. (can give Kirilloff another shot at staying healthy at 1B?)
    Get rid of Kepler and his $8.5M nest year (replace with Wallner)
    Urshella (who was ok) clear his $6.5M by replacing him with Miranda
    multiple other smaller moves.
     
    CHANGE THE CULTURE!!!!
     
     
     
  21. Doc Munson

    Where's Wallner?

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    see what I Did there?
     
    OK #1 most likely already been done tons of times, and B... yeah not the best one either way. hehe
     
    ANYWAYS...
    The Twins continue to lose position players at a fairly regular clip.  Sano came back and was immediately done for the season, no big loss, but it was still a 40 man spot. Larnach has been down for over a month, and most likely not back until September, and will he need time to find his groove again??  Garlick was doing well then rib cartilage took him out. Buxton, has not played CF yet this month (with the exception of playing 1 inning after pinch hitting last night).  Kepler is back after being out for a spell with the foot.
    With not adding any bats at the deadline, the Twins are very quickly running into the position of needing some reinforcements.
    Nick Gordon is playing very well, and hitting like a regular. So that helps. But we still need depth, and again 1 injury away from being short.
    The Twins will obviously not call up Wallner if he is not getting regular ABs.  And he is just now starting to dig out of a post promotion slump, but if we take on 1 more injury, it HAS to be Wallner getting the call right??
     
    IF not, who else?
  22. Doc Munson

    Sano related moves.

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    We have talked about the scenario the Twins will be in once Sano and his rehab stint come to an end. Well that time has come.
    There is clearly only one move. But before we go there, lets take a quick look at why it is the only clear choice.
    MOVE SANO?: We could just DFA Sano. There is no way this happens his "potential" is still just too teasing.  We will also not trade Sano, as his trade value is absolutely rock bottom. No contending team will roll the dice on him if it means giving up anything from there system. no rebuilding team will take on the large team option for next year. So Sano is going nowhere.
    lets look positionally...
    1B:  Arraez is an All Star and a spark plug Where else is he going to get consistent AB? wont be SS (Correa) 2B (Polanco) or 3B (Urshela/Miranda). He is not going to the OF. so 1B it is. He is controlled for 3 more seasons and a potential batting champ. You also do not trade a player like this.  Kirilloff hid platoon mate is also now hitting well. Kirilloff has options, but with all of the up and downs of Kirilloff's young career you do nto throw him back down when he is finally starting to hit well.
     
    NOTE>>> AS typing Kepler just came out of the game after a HBP on the foot... could this change everything??? well see, but lets continue as is...
    DH: This is a platoon/rest position for the Twins.  Buxton just got PRP injection, and will have had nearly 2 weeks of rest (with an All Star appearance in teh middle) so maybe he comes back and will be able ot play more in the field down the stretch, but as of now he will be DH at least 1 out of every 3 games. Then there are AB's for Miranda,  and of course as mentioned above both Arraez and Kiriloff BOTH cant play 1B at the same time. SO where does Sano fit in here?
    OF:  Outfield would be a natural area to move Kiriloff to free up some ABs, but who do you move? Kepler (assuming no foot/toe injury) is not going to get moved. Buxton??  to reference a borderline good movie that I still haven't figured out just how good it is or isnt... NOPE.  That leaves Gordon.  Gordon is out of options so you risk losing him by trying to send him down. Gordon has clearly played well enough to not risk losing. I see him as a piece of the future.  As far as starters go there is no room at the inn.
    3B: the final position that could be ancilarily (is that a word?) impacted. and the only move that makes sense. Ursehla is the only one now mentioned who would be the most expendable. Yes he is still ARB eligible, but he is not a part of the core future Twins. He would not command a strong return, but maybe getting "just enough" back makes sense. Miranda can slide in at 3B. this now leaves Arraez, Kirilloff, Sano in a 3 way rotation between 1B/DH.
    Of course all of this becomes moot, or at least delayed should say Kepler have a broken toe that requires a DL stint. then Kiriloff moves to OF opening the spot for Sano.
     
    So how moveable is Urshela?
    He would upgrade the Mets 3B (apologies to Escobar who I love).
    Urshela = .261/.307/.408
    Escobar = .219/.273/.388  
    How about a Urshela for Thomas Szapucki deal straight up?
    He could be a nice addition back in NY with the Yankees.
    Donaldson = .229/.313/.395
    Falefa (SS) = .271/.316/.322
    If the Yankees want to be in on Soto, there is a good chance they would/could include Gleyber Torres, as well as other near MLB ready infield prospects. I am sure Yanks would love to have Urshela back. What would we get for him from Yanks? That would all depend on what the Yankees will give up for Soto (and they will get Soto)  I would say to basically just taking a flier on a young prospect with one standout tool. Or heck even a return swap of Rortvedt at C.
    Baltimore is actually now in contention and Urshela could fit in well there.
     
    Regardless of trade destination, this is the move.  Trade of Urshela is the right move all the way around.
     
     
  23. Doc Munson

    Soto trade fallout

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    Is there an opportunity for some future considerations as a result of the Soto trade to the Padres?
    Eric Hosmer had declined a trade, and now with Soto and his $ coming on, just how desperate are the Padres to move his contract?  He is still a decent player.
    The Padres have given up a ton to get both Soto and Bell, this creates a huge logjam for their roster. Just how badly do the Padres want to resolve this?
     
    What if a team would take on Hosmer's deal if they throw in  a James Wood or Luis Campusano?  Woods is a young potential stud, Campusano is a near MLB ready catcher, which would be a position of need.
    Hosmer is owed "only" $13M each year over the next 3, assuming he does not opt out. That is not a brutal contract. It is less than we would be paying Sano, and with Kiriloff and his balky wrist now a question mark going forward and the possibility of Miranda going back to 3B next year, he could actually be a good fit..
     
    Lets say Austin Martin and maybe a lower pitching prospect for Hosmer and one of Woods or Campusano  and Joshua Mears.
     
    Would Hosmer waive his no trade to go to a "contender" in the Twins vs Washington?
  24. Doc Munson

    Twins need a new pair of Sox

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    You like that one? you see what I did there?   Yeah I know  to be honest not really a fan of that pun either, but it fits so it stays.
    Twins are proving (and rightly so) that we are not in the running for any REAL  big name FA.  We just do not have the prospects or young players to move...Unless you want to try and flip Correa since he aint coming back and hope to sell AND contend. 
     
    With just a 1 game lead in the division, and little chance of a WC if we lose the division, Twins are at risk of falling completely out of the playoff picture. As mentioned we don't have the prospects to make significant moves. and even though Correa wont resign anyways, the Twins not making any significant moves will give him ZERO reason to opt in. Which makes this an even BIGGER trade deadline than for most teams.  There are some players available. and I like Rodon, but to me the play is to call the Red Sox and make a combo offer for rentals JD Martinez and Eovaldi.
    Due to them being rentals, AND expensive rentals, you wouldnt have to give up a ton for either. SO why not grab both??
    How about something like Spencer Steer and Aaron Sabato for the pair.
    at 23 years old and only in High A Sabato doesnt seem to fit but has that power potential.  Steer is darn near ML ready but with Polanco and Arraez here he is disposable.
    JD would bring a massive bat to this lineup, and Eovaldi is a proven starter.
     
    And on a side note (and this is the final time I will bring it up)...  How this season has been going, and how the deadline is shaping up, Thsi is EXACTLY why moving Chase Petty  was a mistake to start the year!!!  YES Sonny Gray has been great when healthy, and yes we may not even be here without him, and yes we have him for another year,  BUT even with him we are barely hanging on to the playoff spot, and now we are without one more top prospect that could have gotten us that top player.  As I said when the trade happens. Moving Petty (a fresh #1 pick with a big arm) is ok to do... If it is the move that puts you over the top, NOT the move that just puts you in position to compete.
     
    Deadline is tomorrow, and there will be a ton of griping either way, but with the way our minor league pitchers have fared, and with the injuries to all of our 1st year player/prospects,  I wont even blame Falvine, if they do little at this point. We have little to buy with.
    But what also will be interesting... how many of these subpar season pitching prospects are going to have to be protected on the 40 man and not be exposed to the Rule 5? Do we need to move any of them now to get SOMETHING for them anyways?
  25. Doc Munson
    Not sure what will happen, top of the 6th.  Will Buxton coem out of the game? they are down a ton so I am guessing he will be taken out for "rest" since the game is out of hand, 
     
    BUT beware!!!!
    If you DVR the game watch his AB in the 6th.  he reinjures the knee on the second pitch of the AB. He CLEARLY injures the knee on the swing. Then in every subsequent pitch he is flexing it, bending it, doing little jumps and he cant seem to handle any pressure/torque on the knee especially the one he struck out on.
    Maybe it is nothing, maybe he plays CF the rest fo the game. But I am guessing he comes out of the lineup and will be put on actual IL instead of just load management.
     
    If this happens, then what do the Twins do?
     
    Do they suddenly become sellers? and move Correa for a possible haul? Immediately cut bait on Sano? 
     
    thatAB in the 6th just really scared me!!!
     
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