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Doc Munson

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  1. Doc Munson

    Twins will change the MLB in 2022
    The Minnesota Twins this year are in position to change MLB!!
     
    For a team that has claimed a desire to contend in 2022 it has very little in the way of pitching, and has shown little to no interest in the FA agent crop of pitchers. SO how can a team with current starters slotted in as Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober?
     
    Dylan Bundy has only thrown over 162 innings twice in his career and that was 2017-2018. and coming off seasons of 65 (Covid) and 90 innings. He cannot be counted on to take on a bunch of innings.
    Joe Ryan has never thrown over 123 innings... ZERO in 2020 (covid) and just 92 between AAA & MLB last year. even a 50% increase is still less than 150 innings.
    Bailey Ober never threw more than 80 innigns in any season prior to last year when he set a highwater mark of 92 innigns between minors and MLB. again another 50% increase get to only 150 innings.
    So the three pitchers we have on our team assuming 32 starts per year will pitch les than 5 innings on average.
    Our minor league pitching that is near MLB ready or MLB ready are...
    Jordan Balazovic... 23...  coming off career high 97 innings
    Jhoan Duran... 24... coming off injury  100IP in 2018 & 115 IP 2019 but 0 2020 and just 16 in 2021.
    Simeon Woods Richardson... 21... innings max of 106 in 2019 with 0 in 2020 and 53 in 2021
    Josh Winder... 25...  a respectable 125 IP in 2019 but again 0 in 2020 and 72 in 2021
    Matt Canterino... 24... never more than 25 in his 3 seasons including 23 in 2021
    Drew Strotman... 25... finally cracked 100 after never throwing more than 50 IP  with 112 in 2021.
     
    SO... you see most of our prospects are at the age where they should be contributing to a MLB (usualyl 23, 24) this includes. Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Canterino, Strotman.
    This all begs the question...  How do we get these guys to the big leagues before they are "too old" But yet not ONE indiviudally seems fully ready by if nothign else at least pitch/innings count to be a starting pitcher full time?
     
    Sure, we can move a couple to the bullpen.  BUT on a team like the Twins, who love analytics, and seemingly never let their pitchers face a batter a third time, you will see the Twins go with 1, MAYBE 2 traditional starters (once we resign Pineda) and the rest will be piggy backed pitching "teams"
    Twins will have 8 starters. with the #3, #4, #5 starters all pitching in the "buddy system" with each one going a max of 4 innings.  The theory being that if each starter can go 4 innings, then that leaves just 1 inning for the back of the bullpen to take care of, so as a result you do not need a ton of relievers. You just have your top 3 power arms in the bullpen.
    So you have a pitching 13 man pitching staff of 8 starters, 3 back end relievers and 2 "wild cards" or specialists.
     
    This is a move I HATE!!! but this WILL happen in 2022, and the sad thing as I want the Twins to succeed, then I have to want this to succeed, and if it does then in the copy cat league we have, more teams will do it and we will lose more and more of "traditional" ball.
  2. Doc Munson

    Twins Offseason Moves
    There are relatively few guarantees in baseball, and even less when it comes to what a new CBA will look like. Let's take a look at a few potential additions, and how it can impact the Twins (and other clubs). Today I want to talk about one potentially significant change. 
    Salary Floor
    Both sides have spoken about a potential salary floor in some form or fashion.  When both sides reference the possibility of something then it is only a matter of the details. It WILL be in the new CBA.  How will that impact teams? or better yet how can some teams leverage this to their advantage? Lets assume a $100M floor for simplicity sake.
    This would mean there is a TON of money that will HAVE to be spent.  If you MUST spend it, you can do 1 of 3 things. #1 spend big on top tier players. Of course there are relatively few top tier players left to spend money on.  #2 overpay average players, which is just silly. #3 take on bad contracts.
     
    Lets take a look at a strategy behind #3.  First lets identify teams that A) already have very high salaries which could be looking for some relief. B.) Still want to add a big piece or two, and C) have underperforming big salaries they want to dump. D) are in "Win Now" mode. The strategy here is to spend the money you are forced to by taking on bad contracts in exchange for quality prospects. Here are 3 of the top 4 teams in committed salaries for 2021. Each of these teams meet this criteria.
    Mets, Dodgers, Padres.
     
    Mets:
    The Mets currently sit at $235M and they still want to add more. They have a bad contract in Robinson Cano. $24M for '21 & '22. They also have some decent young players or prospects I would take a flier on. Would the Mets give up both Dom Smith & Thomas Szapucki for a team to take Cano's salary off the books? You have to spend the money anyways. Dom Smith is a Gold Glove 1B who is stuck behind Alonso. We have Sano, and hopefully he has a great offseason and comes into camp down 40 pounds like Vlad Guererro, but if he doesn't, Smith would be a great long term piece at 1B, and Szapucki would be another MLB ready arm with injury history, and we have enough of those, but he could also be a great buy low candidate.
    Dodgers:
    Dodgers are currently at $213M and still want to bring back Kershaw, and need to replace Seager at SS.  Nobody will touch Bauer, but what about taking on the final year of David Price at $32M. There is not a TON I like in their system, but maybe a Ryan Pepiot, but maybe a young player like Gavin Lux.
     
    Padres:
    Here is the one that excites me the most.  Padres at $180M, but they would love to either upgrade some spots or swap out contracts. You take on BOTH Wil Myer, and Eric Hosmer.  You help SD clear $40M off the books  to free that up for them to go after bigger impact players you have to ask what would they give up? Would they give up CJ Abrams? that is a ton, and we already have plenty of SS, but having Lewis, Martin, Abrams all in the system and nearly ready could allow you to use that depth to then trade for potential ACE pitching prospects.  Would they give up Gore?  How about a trade along the lines of Max Kepler, and Brent Rooker or Trevor Larnach in exchange for either Gore or Abrams along with taking on the contracts of Myer & Hosmer?
     
    What moves would you make if there is a salary floor and the Twins are forced to spend at least another $30M without there being a lot left in FA?
     
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