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Doc Munson

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  1. Doc Munson
    This is a weird (but good) trade in my opinion. Yes I too like Garver, and think he could have helped bring offensive thump to our lineup. and no I do not think Jeffers is necessarily ready for a FT role, and no I do not think we have particularly strong platoon options with Jeffers.  So why do I sorta like the deal? HE is a very solid player at multiple positions. He will obviously start at SS for us at the beginning of the year, but he could also play 3B, and maybe a little catcher. Very solid defender at 3B & SS.
    But what intrigues me the most about this deal is what it says about OTHER positions.
    #1 we need pitching. We didn't sign anyone of note prior to lock out. We didn't secure Rodon post lock out, and my sources say we didn't even consider making an offer.  So we don't make any moves toward a pitcher, and we trade one of our most tradeable assets for infield help (although we needed a SS). This speaks to priorities. You would THINK that pitching would be the priority with us having basically 3 starters as we sit. The fact that the Twins are not acting like pitching is a priority, is because they don't think it is. Why would this be? Obviously the answer... or THEIR answer, is because we have what we need in house with young pitchers.  If you don't sign FA pitching, and you use trade chips to acquire non-pitchers, then that screams that you already have at least SOME of the pitching you need in house.
    #2 OR... you can still address pitching. Combine this trade, with increased CBT and Universal DH, and you have all of the makings of a Josh Donaldson trade. With Kiner-Falefa to play 3B until Miranda is ready. Can you think of an NL team, newly in need of a DH, that has deep pitching, for whom Donaldson has played (and loved his time there) and who is about to lose a big dollar face of the franchise 1B bat to the Dodgers?  Here is a hint.  it rhymes with Atlanta Braves. There is now a logical move to be made with Donaldson, AND can finally help address pitching.  Trade Donaldson to the Braves for Touki Toussaint  and Kyle Muller. Neither are really proven MLB pitchers, but Touki has had flashes of brilliance at the MLB level, and Muller would be just another near MLB prospect. but it would at least make a move towards pitching.
    Overall this was a decent yet curious  use of potential trade assets.  What other moves do you see this potentially leading to? or what doyou think this says about our pitching situation?
  2. Doc Munson

    What the what??

    By Doc Munson,


    MLB CBA
    It is great news to hear that MLB & MLBPA are getting closer to a deal, but the early info on INTL draft and the QO are very confusing.
    Basically what it means is that NEITHER side actually really care about either of these issues, and as a result were holding up baseball for absolutely no reason.
    SO what is this grand bargain that was struck between MLB & MLBPA?
    Well according to Jeff Passan, 
    they have agreed to get this...a new deadline...  LOL  they have agreed to a July 25th deadline to figure out how an International Draft would work. an agreement on an international draft will be tied to the Qualifying Offer and drat picks associated with that.  OK fair enough, but what happens if they are unable to get an agreement?? NOTHING!!!!!  not a gosh darn thing... LITTERALLY!!!  IF they do not come to an agreement, then they simply go back to what the current QO rules are, and simply go back to what the current international signing rules are.  SO the results of one of the bigger sticking points is "MEH, well lets just kick it down the road, and if we dont agree on anything no big deal, we will just do nothing, and go back to what it was,   BUT  we can still agree to ruin baseball for the fans right??  ok , good"
     
    Ridiculous
     
    All this being said, my hypocritical self will be happy as heck and positive as heck once baseball is back.  LOL
  3. Doc Munson
    I like many fans am frustrated with MLB & MLBPA. Both sides are equally to blame. I have shared ideas on how to end the stalemate in previous posts.  One of the simplest that touches on multiple aspects (tanking, draft, "pre-arb" player pool) Is simply to have a Draft Tournament. With all teams not making the playoffs playing in a single elimination tournament to decide the top draft pick and subsequent draft order. This hits on tanking and the draft, the additional new TV rights to these games could be used to fund the gap in the "pre-arb" player pool. or fund the WHOLE THING!!!  A win for MLBPA for getting the compensation they claim they want for young players, and MLB saves by using "new" money to fund it and not costing them any of the current revenues they are offering to fund the pool with.
    But what I really want to share on this discussion, is how truly disingenuous the MLBPA really is. They SAY they are fighting for the younger players to earn more, they SAY this is not about the big stars but the "average guy" and the 30+yr old veteran. If this is true then they would not be fighting over CBT threshold, but fighting for a salary FLOOR, but that discussion was thrown out almost immediately. Lets ask ourselves. who benefits from a higher CBT threshold? Is it the average team? NO. it is the big market teams, with just a handful of of team willing and/or able to exceed the threshold, or even get CLOSE to it. Most teams have not comeclose to the current threshold because they cannot afford it. SO by raising the CBT threshold, will teams automatically spend more? Of course not!!! That is liek an average person saying... "hmmm, I that car dealer would finance that new 2021 vehicle for me at $50K max sales price, but I just cant afford it.  BUT WAIT!!! the 2022 version they will finance me for up to $75K!!!  OK ILL BUY IT!!!"  Obviosuly raising the CBT threshold only impacts a handful of teams. 
    But since we are focusing on the MLBPA here, ask yourself, "what kind of player is most likely to be impacted by increasing the CBT threshold"?  Is it the average payer? is it the pre-arb? NO itis the superstar. MLB teams will go over the cap... ANY CAP, or spend UP TO the cap to sign players like Carlos Correa, Max SCherzer, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, etc.  But would a team go over the cap to sign a player like say, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, heck, even a player like Anthony Rizzo?  OF course not.  What will happen will be the rich get richer. the superstars instead of signing $30M AAV will get $36M AAV. They will still eat up most of money available, and again leave the average player, especially the 30+yr old veteran to settle for the leftovers. It is either that or teams use the underpaid "pre-arbs".
     
    NOW, if there were a $100M salary FLOOR as opposed to top end CBT, NOW players would paid evenly. The top players mentioned above will still get their mega deals, because rich teams will spend regardless. Now that the lower revenue teams MUST spend, they will be forced to spend more on the average player. The team MUST spend the money anyways, whether they are planning to compete or rebuild. so now a rebuilding team can actually OVERPAY the 30+ yr old veteran. Teams would "overspend" on short 1-2 year deals. a player like Rizzo now could easily receive a $20M deal somewhere for 1 yr (or more) because again the money must be spent, and why not spend it on a contract that will be coming off the books by the next year?  Also if a team MUST spend the money anyways,  and do not want to pay a veteran to take AB's away from younger players, then they would "overpay" or at least increase the pay to their own young players. Take a team like Baltimore. lets say Adley Rutchsman is on the big league roster (and he should). If the Orioles are currently sitting well under the $100M threshold, would it not behoove them to pay Adley $10-20M or more this year if they have to spend the money anyways??  it helps build loyalty from teh players part, so nwo when he reaches Free Agency he may be more willing to give a "hometown discount"  to stay.  "Overpaying" pre-arb players becasue the money must be spent anyways woudl also then reduce the need of the "pre-arb pool".
     
    A salary floor helps ALL, an increase in CBT only helps the superstars. the fact that the union is fighting for the wrong one shows their true colors.  The proof is in the pudding.  over the last 6 years, with INCREASING CBT thresholds, the average MLB salary has DECREASED!!  Just like other sports it has been and always will be a star driven league. and I don't even have an issue with that. but at least have the integrity to either say what you are actually fighting for, or actually fight for the things you say you are for.
    Interested to hear thoughts
  4. Doc Munson

    Twins will change MLB in 2022

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins will change the MLB in 2022
    The Minnesota Twins this year are in position to change MLB!!
     
    For a team that has claimed a desire to contend in 2022 it has very little in the way of pitching, and has shown little to no interest in the FA agent crop of pitchers. SO how can a team with current starters slotted in as Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober?
     
    Dylan Bundy has only thrown over 162 innings twice in his career and that was 2017-2018. and coming off seasons of 65 (Covid) and 90 innings. He cannot be counted on to take on a bunch of innings.
    Joe Ryan has never thrown over 123 innings... ZERO in 2020 (covid) and just 92 between AAA & MLB last year. even a 50% increase is still less than 150 innings.
    Bailey Ober never threw more than 80 innigns in any season prior to last year when he set a highwater mark of 92 innigns between minors and MLB. again another 50% increase get to only 150 innings.
    So the three pitchers we have on our team assuming 32 starts per year will pitch les than 5 innings on average.
    Our minor league pitching that is near MLB ready or MLB ready are...
    Jordan Balazovic... 23...  coming off career high 97 innings
    Jhoan Duran... 24... coming off injury  100IP in 2018 & 115 IP 2019 but 0 2020 and just 16 in 2021.
    Simeon Woods Richardson... 21... innings max of 106 in 2019 with 0 in 2020 and 53 in 2021
    Josh Winder... 25...  a respectable 125 IP in 2019 but again 0 in 2020 and 72 in 2021
    Matt Canterino... 24... never more than 25 in his 3 seasons including 23 in 2021
    Drew Strotman... 25... finally cracked 100 after never throwing more than 50 IP  with 112 in 2021.
     
    SO... you see most of our prospects are at the age where they should be contributing to a MLB (usualyl 23, 24) this includes. Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Canterino, Strotman.
    This all begs the question...  How do we get these guys to the big leagues before they are "too old" But yet not ONE indiviudally seems fully ready by if nothign else at least pitch/innings count to be a starting pitcher full time?
     
    Sure, we can move a couple to the bullpen.  BUT on a team like the Twins, who love analytics, and seemingly never let their pitchers face a batter a third time, you will see the Twins go with 1, MAYBE 2 traditional starters (once we resign Pineda) and the rest will be piggy backed pitching "teams"
    Twins will have 8 starters. with the #3, #4, #5 starters all pitching in the "buddy system" with each one going a max of 4 innings.  The theory being that if each starter can go 4 innings, then that leaves just 1 inning for the back of the bullpen to take care of, so as a result you do not need a ton of relievers. You just have your top 3 power arms in the bullpen.
    So you have a pitching 13 man pitching staff of 8 starters, 3 back end relievers and 2 "wild cards" or specialists.
     
    This is a move I HATE!!! but this WILL happen in 2022, and the sad thing as I want the Twins to succeed, then I have to want this to succeed, and if it does then in the copy cat league we have, more teams will do it and we will lose more and more of "traditional" ball.
  5. Doc Munson

    Post Lock out Moves: Potential Twins Trades

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    There are relatively few guarantees in baseball, and even less when it comes to what a new CBA will look like. Let's take a look at a few potential additions, and how it can impact the Twins (and other clubs). Today I want to talk about one potentially significant change. 
    Salary Floor
    Both sides have spoken about a potential salary floor in some form or fashion.  When both sides reference the possibility of something then it is only a matter of the details. It WILL be in the new CBA.  How will that impact teams? or better yet how can some teams leverage this to their advantage? Lets assume a $100M floor for simplicity sake.
    This would mean there is a TON of money that will HAVE to be spent.  If you MUST spend it, you can do 1 of 3 things. #1 spend big on top tier players. Of course there are relatively few top tier players left to spend money on.  #2 overpay average players, which is just silly. #3 take on bad contracts.
     
    Lets take a look at a strategy behind #3.  First lets identify teams that A) already have very high salaries which could be looking for some relief. B.) Still want to add a big piece or two, and C) have underperforming big salaries they want to dump. D) are in "Win Now" mode. The strategy here is to spend the money you are forced to by taking on bad contracts in exchange for quality prospects. Here are 3 of the top 4 teams in committed salaries for 2021. Each of these teams meet this criteria.
    Mets, Dodgers, Padres.
     
    Mets:
    The Mets currently sit at $235M and they still want to add more. They have a bad contract in Robinson Cano. $24M for '21 & '22. They also have some decent young players or prospects I would take a flier on. Would the Mets give up both Dom Smith & Thomas Szapucki for a team to take Cano's salary off the books? You have to spend the money anyways. Dom Smith is a Gold Glove 1B who is stuck behind Alonso. We have Sano, and hopefully he has a great offseason and comes into camp down 40 pounds like Vlad Guererro, but if he doesn't, Smith would be a great long term piece at 1B, and Szapucki would be another MLB ready arm with injury history, and we have enough of those, but he could also be a great buy low candidate.
    Dodgers:
    Dodgers are currently at $213M and still want to bring back Kershaw, and need to replace Seager at SS.  Nobody will touch Bauer, but what about taking on the final year of David Price at $32M. There is not a TON I like in their system, but maybe a Ryan Pepiot, but maybe a young player like Gavin Lux.
     
    Padres:
    Here is the one that excites me the most.  Padres at $180M, but they would love to either upgrade some spots or swap out contracts. You take on BOTH Wil Myer, and Eric Hosmer.  You help SD clear $40M off the books  to free that up for them to go after bigger impact players you have to ask what would they give up? Would they give up CJ Abrams? that is a ton, and we already have plenty of SS, but having Lewis, Martin, Abrams all in the system and nearly ready could allow you to use that depth to then trade for potential ACE pitching prospects.  Would they give up Gore?  How about a trade along the lines of Max Kepler, and Brent Rooker or Trevor Larnach in exchange for either Gore or Abrams along with taking on the contracts of Myer & Hosmer?
     
    What moves would you make if there is a salary floor and the Twins are forced to spend at least another $30M without there being a lot left in FA?
     
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