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Doc Munson

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Blog Entries posted by Doc Munson

  1. Doc Munson

    Am I LOOKING for a complaint???

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    Maybe I am just looking for something to gripe about after another walkoff loss.  I got off work only to walk into the bottom of the 9th.  in a 6-6 game there are probably NUMEROUS things you could point to that could have lost the game. And what I am pointing to is probably LEAST valid among the reasons for the loss, it is more of a philosophical complaint.
    Why do you use biggest bullpen arm in the 8th of a 6-6 game on the road as opposed to the 9th???
    Now sure if Duran had a quick 8th he most likely comes back out, and yes if Duffey pitched the 8th like he did the 9th we still would have lost, and yes,, Duffey has been great lately, and yes... I may just be too  "old school", but you have a CLOSER for a reason, use him as such.
    the 8th was not a "high leverage" situation to justify burning Duran n the 8th, and while Duffey has been good he has had TWO save opportunities during that run and 5 all year. Duran on the other hand ... OK it just FEELS like he has had more... surprisingly Duran has only had 2 save opportunities since June as well, but Duran just SEEMS like the 9th inning guy. with Duran having an ERA a full run and a half lower.
     
    While the result may have been the same, the feeling is MUCH different. IF Duran and Duffey had swapped places, and Duran blew the game, then it would have felt like... "UGH!! we just got beat by a better team" or "UGH Duran was just off tonight"  losing the way we did screams of "we lost because we dont know how to manage a frickin ballgame!!"  it feels like incompetence...
    Again, a loss is a loss, but why does this loss "FEEL" so different? Or am I just looking for a lawn to yell at someone to get off of?
  2. Doc Munson

    Correa for Soto???

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    Is there a rationale for the Twins to get into the Juan Soto sweepstakes??
     
    While I am not officially predicting this ( I have retired from teh predicting game immediately after predicting the Correa signing... going out undefeated!!  hehe).
    There COULD be a path to Soto.
     
    First, The Twins inked Correa to a 3 year deal at $35.1M AAV. Assuming the Twins would be comfortable if Correa would opt in to those last 2 years, and were being used SOLELY as a leverage play, that means the Twins are OK opening up the books a bit. IF Correa were to get moved, his 2 years and $70.2M total due him would be freed up.  IF the Twins were willing to give Correa $70.2M over the next 2 years then you would think they would be ok paying Soto $60-70M (in arb cases) over the next 2 years. 
    That right there takes the "small market" argument out of the equation.
    Now it comes down to what the TWins would have to give up.
    We start no place else than Correa himself. While he CAN opt out, if the Nats were willing to lock up Soto with $440M, then maybe they would be willing to offer a similar deal to Correa, who would undoubtedly take that deal (or even something a little less) since he is a few years older.
    Obviously a straight up Correa/Soto isnt enough, so what else would it take?  Nat's have said they want 4-5 top prospects or young controllable MLB talent  in return.  Lets say Correa is good enough to be worth 2 players. that leaves another 2-3 players to pick.
    Would they have interest in Sano? if so we include him, if not then no worries we move Urshela to SS, Miranda to 3B and Sano/Kirilloff/Arraez a 1B/DH platoon.
    Assuming not interested in Sano, lets add Spencer Steer for near MLB ready 2B, Noah Miller for a more future/potential player, a young player like Nick Gordon, and a top 10 pitching prospect.
    This reloads the Twins, allows us to still contend this year, and help address some of the positional overlap.
    With a set OF rotation of Soto, Buxton, Kepler.
    an IF of Miranda, Urshela, Polanco, Kirilloff/Sano
    The Twins can keep Soto for a year to a year and a half and and then still trade him for a massive haul after 2023.
     
    Again I am not saying it WILL happen, I am just saying it COULD happen
     
  3. Doc Munson

    All Star Changes Open Letter to Rob Manfred

    By Doc Munson,


    All Star Experience
    OK Twins fans, lets see if we can get some unique ideas on how to improve the MLB All Star experience.
    You are the Commissioner for a Day, You can make unilateral decisions on the All Star Game (OK I know he can't, but let's pretend).
    Here are a couple of mine.
    1) a hitting "skills" competition.  MLB has the HR Derby which is the equivalent to the Slam Dunk contest. But what is MLB's Skilsl Competition?
    How about a point based challenge with team and individual winners. Batters get points based on if they would have gotten a hit. How do you do that?  First you take teh average size of each MLB position player. Second you take the average range of each MLB position player. You use these dimensions to develop "blacked out areas" which would be outs. on the infield you could build mini walls or nets that encompass the space a typical infielder would be able to cover, and as high as the typical infielder could leap for a liner. Thos are placed in the infield. You hit them your out, you get it past them and you get a hit (insert point total here) For the outfield you could either do the same, just create markings on the ground, or even funner yet, have baskets on wheels with remote controls to position and chase after balls. these could be controlled by the opposing teams. for each ball caught it subtracts points, and fo reach base hit they get points.  (or you could just put live players in the outfield but that could just create potential for injury. You could then add all sorts of fun things.  you could have "Money Balls" where a section of the field is identified JUST before each pitch, where if the batter is able to get a hit to that area of the field they get bonus points.  This would help reward the players like Arraez and other hitters who are PURE hitters, and put the ball where it is needed based on skill. Heck could even raise money for charity by having each of the sections or nets sponsored corproately.
     
    OK so nto completely fleshed out, but something different from a "skills"  perspective would be fun.
     
    2) A community involved HR Derby.   
    Fans can come and pay like $10-20 to get a bucket of 10 balls. fans also register as a fan of a specific team. the fans HR then get put into either an NL bucket or an AL bucket. whichever bucket ends up with the most fan HR has that team with the tiebreaker advantage. This eliminates the extra inning games, which while can be fun, are pointless in an exhibition. ALSO having to prepare for extra innings means some players are "kept in reserve" in case it goes extra and do not get to participate in what may be their ONLY All Star game appearance.
    This makes the fans feel part of the game. PLUS you can do a "Split the Pot" type thing, where all of the money goes into a pot. for each HR hit that fan gets an entry into a drawing to Split the Pot. When the winner is drawn they get half the money in the pot, and the team that they registered as a fan for gets the other half to go their Team Community Fund. You could have a children's HR fence and an Adults HR fence.  The children's HR fence still counts towards the tie breaker, but obviously under 18 cannot get entry to win money. Can you imagine being a 10 year old and you hitting HR could help your favorite team/player win the All Satr Game!!!  How cool would that be!!
     
    As far as the game goes... inning by inning, not sure I would change it, I like that it is as close to a real gaem as any All Star game is.
     
    So those are my goofy thoughts.
     
    What would you do to change the All Star game... the actual game, the weekend experience, the selection process, etc.????
     
     
     
     
  4. Doc Munson
    The more and more sources I speak with, the more I am convinced the Twins will be taking pitcher Kumar Rocker at #8 in the draft Saturday.
    Is this picking based on NEED vs best player? maybe, But I still like the pick.  Assuming his shoulder is good to go then he would be a nice pick. He was at one point he was in the running for 1.1 last year. Ultimately going #10 to the Mets. SO assuming health, he is a legit top 10 pick. Combine that with the fact that the Twins need significant upgrades in pen, and this makes it an even more realistic move.
    If you factor in what the Twins would give up from the system to get a top bullpen arm you are looking at something most likely around a top 10-15 prospect, then the Twins could keep some prospects while getting a power arm in the pen. Make no mistake, Kumar is a starting pitcher!!  and a team like the Twins does not spend on top FA pitching, we need to draft and develop. and Rocker has a chance to be a very nice starting pitcher in the future. SO it will just be a bonus to get him for the stretch drive as well.
    I am no scout, I cant tell you anything about the players available in the draft other than what I read other places.  But at #8 the Twins are not gettign a consensus stud like Druw Jones.  MLB.com has the Twins currently taking  3B/OF Jacob Berry (or OF Gavin Cross as an alternate) both College hitters. I have no clue if either are "cant miss" have big bats or what. Maybe they will be the next Mike Trouts for all I know, but  If we can get a potential top of the rotation starter of the future AND get immediate bullpen help for a contending team, then Kumar is the pick for me!!
    Draft picks are crapshoots. Here are all of the "good" picks frm #8-15 in the last 10 drafts... (with the actual 8th pick)
    2012 #8 Mark Appel   2013 #8 Hunter Dozier  2014 #8 Kyle Freeland  #13 Trea Turner  2015  #8 Carson Fullmer  2016 #8 Cal Quantril  #11 Kyle Lewis  #15 Kirilloff     2017 #8 Adam Haseley    2018  #8 Carter Stewart   2019  #8 Josh Jung   2020 #8 Reid Detmers  2021  #8 Benny Montgomery.
     
    While some of these drafts are still too early to tell. How many #8's have been major league impact.. or even quality players? Jacob Berry, or anyone else the Twins may take, may be the next Aaron Judge, but odds say no. So why not take an arm that most people who DO know what they are talking about say plays AS IS in a MLB bullpen this year. 
     
     
     
  5. Doc Munson

    Sano Situation

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    OK, with Sano on rehad assignment that means we are getting closer to decision time.
    After going 0-3 in his first game he now has an exciting slash line of .313/..421/.750 for a 1.171  OPS.  with just TWO strikeouts in 18 ABs!!!!!
    PRETTY EXCITING!!!  Except for the fact that it against Rookie League talent, so this should be the expected baseline. Still it is better than  the alternative.
     
    SO...
    What are the plans for when he returns?  Kirilloff is starting to hit. Miranda is hitting as well now. so that covers 1B & DH. Maybe We move Kirilloff back to the OF and Miranda to 1B with Sano DH?  BUT Nick Gordon is actually playing very well also.  Plays a better defense (forget last nights play), and has actually been more productive than Kirilloff, so do you want to make that move?  You could move Miranda to 3B and have Sano DH, but while Urshela has not been spectacular, he has been pretty good overall. The comparison here is not who is better between him or Miranda (would clearly be Miranda lately) but is it better to have Urshela's bat in the lineup over Sano, here is where it could be a push.
    Someone has to go when he comes back. It will most likely be someone like Garlick. No big loss there. But Does Sano come back as bench player? He doesnt have much positional flexibility, and you would like bench players to be able to play some defense. There is the R/L platoon option with Kirilloff and Sano. 
    What about trade values?
    Sano;s trade value would be low, unless he comes back on fire.  Even if Sano comes back and is "above average" is he "$14M" good for next year? very doubtful. So more than likely he is gone after this year anyways, so do we really care what we get in return (as much as I hate seeing him go)?
    So the question is...
    WHAT DO YOU DO WITH SANO BEFOR ETHE TRADE DEADLINE WHEN HE COMES BACK???
    This is not an educational article, but an "I am curious to what you all think" article.  What would you do?
     
    Personally I would dangle an underperfoming Sano who still has TONS of power potential to the Mets for 2 players who have underperformed but have potential. potential for potential.
     
    Sano for Dom Smith & Thomas Szapucki.
    Dom, is a potential Gold Glover who alos has the defensive flexibilty to play the OF. He has hit poorly the last 2 years, but he has shown he can hit, and has historically been a "2nd half hitter" and has shown some signs lately.  Thomas Szapucki, is a AAAA type pitcher with great stuff who has had difficulty staying healthy. He could help the rotation. a career 3.02 MiLB ERA, with a 3.86 this year, he has been built up to over 5+ IP per game.  He could also be a great lefty out of the bullpen as evidenced by his 65K in 49 IP (to go along with a higher than you would like 24 BB).  With Scherzer and deGrom both coming back there is no need for Szapucki in NY, and the one area they could use help at is getting more pop out of DH.  To me this is a perfect swap.   Low risk on both sides, high potential on both sides. positional fits on both sides.
    This does not necessarily SOLVE any big problems/holes, but it also does not inhibit any other potential moves either.
    What say you
  6. Doc Munson
    If you get the headline 3 points for you!!
     
    Obviously Correa is ZERO problem.  BUT he is a bit of a conundrum.  There were some level or reporting earlier that Correa may have been interested in signing long term.  This had to have been pure hope.  He never considered it.
     
    The "Problem"  though is...   Do the Twins treat him like a 1 year flier, and "make a run" this year and let him walk?  or do they see if they can get top dollar in a trade?
    Problem #1: Keep and contend
    The Twins are not built overall to truly contend this year. Our Pitching is no where near in position to be a quality staff on a contending team.  Sure we have a pretty good shot at winning the division, but if you are willing to put big money down that the Twins will win a series or two in playoffs, I would love to take your money.  SO then you have to ask yourself... Is our cieling demosntrably better wit Correa than without? If you thin ultimately we go only so far regardless, then you MUST look for a trade.
     
    Problem #2 What is his value?
    Yes he is one of the top players in all of baseball, and yes he does have 2 more years of potential "control", so there is always a CHANCE he could opt in and the recieveing team gets him for more than 1 year. which woudl significantly improve trade value. otherwise he is "just" a rental. This diminishes his value.
     
    Problem #3: What team needs him?
    First it needs to be a contender. Second, needs to be a contender who has a need at SS. Third they need to be a contender with a need at SS who has quality prospects to trade.
    SO, who could possibly fall into this scenario?
    There is ONE team that checks all these boxes!!!  (ok maybe a few, but oen who it woudl have the BIGGEST impact on!!)
    ST LOUIS CARDINALS!!
    The Cardinals are just 1 game out of 1st, and currently own a WC spot. one of the biggestholes they have is SS.  They are a HUGE baseball town!! They are in a WIN NOW season!!! with it being the last years of Waino, Yadi and Pujols. there would be a HUGE public interest to have them go out with a bang!!  Also with the Big Three retiring that clear s$30M nest year, which makes Correa's $35M affordable.
    Cardinals Have some great top propsects.  including Jordan Walker.
     
    Why woudl the Cards trade Walker? he is a STUD!!!
     
    Well First they are getting the reigning MVP and Platinum Glove SS in Correa, they get a PROVEN superstar in excheange for a POTENTIAL superstar. Seconly Walker is 3B, Oh by the way the Cards have something called Nolan Arrenado currently mannign 3B. Ok, move one of them to 1B you say, oh  ok how about something called Paul Goldschmidt.  They also have Nolan Gorman who is a 3B/2B prospect.
    So trading for Correa gives them an infield to contend this year and future years of Arrenado, Correa, Gorman, Goldschmidt.
     
     
    Finally, How do you maximize Correa's value? Simple renegotiate his contract to build in a trade kicker that comes into play if opts in to BOTH of the remaining years.  say it is a $10M kicker that is split between the Twins and the team that picks him up.  This gets Correa $45M per year on a short 2 year deal. So a team like the cardinals can A: Afford $40M on a short deal to secure Correa, B: have a big positional need. C : have a PR opportuity, and D : have the blocked prospects to swing a deal.
     
     
    And as a remainder, NO anyone the Twins trade him to will nto give up MLB experienced top pitching., as any team takng on Correa will be a contending team and not move their quality pitching.  SO... IF we will not get pitching back, then why not shoot for one of the top position prospects in all of baseball.
     
    Lets go get Jordan Walker!!
     
  7. Doc Munson

    Is there a Catching issue?

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    I have never been a HUGE Jeffers fan, but at the same time I have never been anti-jeffers. but as this season goes on, I have to wonder what the best decision is to fix our catching. Or does it need fixing?
    The Twins are exactly middle of the road when it comes to team ERA, and for the Twins that is a huge win!!  We do not have aces to rely on, or stud bullpens, so being 15 out of 30 is quite acceptable. A certain amount of that has to go to the catching. so in that aspect you have to give Jeffers some credit.
    But how long can we go with a primary catcher who hits  .176 with a .570 OPS?  on top of that he is only throwing out 13% of base stealers. The book is out, and any team that has any semblance of speed is now running at will against us/him. So now a walk turns into a double or triple.
     
    Jeffers cannot remain the primary catcher on a contending team. 
    Is he just havign a bad year? 
     
    well considering career numbers are .201 and OPS of .656 say it is not UNUSUALLY bad for him.  He did throw out about 27% of base stealers last year, but that isnt super great either.
     
    SO how do you fix the C spot?
    1) an absolute pipe dream, becasue no way they will trade in the division, and KC loves him, but I woudl give up a LOT to get MJ Melendez from KC!!
    2) How about we get into the Wilson Contreras trade game?
     
    I am otherwise not a brilliant cacthing mind, so help me out here...
    What do the Twins need to do at Catcher?
  8. Doc Munson

    Rocco Baldelli: Hero or Villian?

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    Twins fans, like most fans tend to have a hot/cold, love/hate relationship with coaches/managers.
    What exactly is the Baldelli Lama?
    IS he a wunderkind for babying and piecing together a top 10 starting rotation getting the max results from a bunch of #3s or #4s? Will he end up looking like a genius by not letting starters go past 70 pitches regardless of results? With the delayed start to the season, OBVIOUSLY no pitcher should be able to go past 4 2/3 or touch 80 pitches per game right??? I mean they are not conditioned for such a workload.  The whole rest of MLB will look ridiculous when Ryan, Ober, Archer, Bundy, Gray  end up in a 5 way tie for the Cy Young with MONSTER second halves because they were not overused at the beginning of the season right??
    All smart alecking aside (and I can guess you can figure out where my views land) Has he done a good job with the starters? keeping them healthy, slowly... ever so slowly loosenign the reigns, or doing a 2 steps forward 1 step back approach. I mean Archer just went 5 scoreless on 57 pitches and was pulled.
    It doesnt seem to be the case, with Sonny Gray having multiple nagging injuries, Paddack needing TJ (again who didnt see that coming when the trade was announced??) Bailey Ober has already had a stint as well.
    Still it is impossible to prove a negative, and one could easily say that if the Twins had NOT slowly built up the arms there would have been even MORE carnage and poor performance, so for the Hero argument, lets give Baldelli his due!!  HE is the coach, and the starters have pitched very well.  If you get the blame, you should get the credit as well.
     
    Now, speaking of getting the blame...
    Is Baldelli the Villian for not allowing the starters to go deeper into games? to learn how to pitch out of tough situations? to not build up  that arm strength to be even stronger in innings 5,6 and God forbid 7th innings later in the year?  And what kind of impact has the low number of innings had on the bullpen? Both now and going forward? Are we burning out the pen? Will that come back to haunt us? 
     
    This is a results based game. and going back to the Archer 5 inning game, if Archer comes out after 5 innings and we hold onto a 2-1 win, then Baldelli gets praise for beautifully handling the pitching staff, since we lost, he gets tore apart for pulling a guy after 5 innings and just 57 pitches . and it loses a bit of actual "sting" since it wasnt the NEXT pitcher who gave up the lead, Duran came in and gave us 2 strong innings.  AND to Baldellis credit before Pagan gave up the game, he had a 2.12 ERA. but we did not hold the lead so it was a "bad decision"
     
    And again with it being a results based game, we are still in 1st place, and a single win counts only as a single win, so it shouldn't matter if it is from a dominant 3 hit CG shutout on 115 pitches or a "two times through the lineup  max" game for 3-4 pitchers. they still count the same. but they do not FEEL the same. and the losses sure the heck dont!!  a well pitched 7-8 inning start we lose feels like we lost to a better team. a 3-4 pitcher game where the bullpen gives up a few runs feels we lost because we are just bad.
    Maybe I am just too "old school" who likes watching pitchers go deep, get out of trouble, and have a theory that you use the pen when you NEED to, not when you CAN.  Maybe the game has passed me by, because I have great unease about this team, and what may happen going forward mainly as a result poor pitching management. Should I just be happy that we are in first place, and not care about how those wins LOOK?  Take the pleasure in the win, vs the pleasure of watching entertaining baseball?
    But I am digressing... Getting back to the question at hand, I think our success/failure comes down to pitching more than hitting, And I think it is because I truly do not have an answer to my own question...
    Is (will) Baldelli (be) a hero or a villian? 
     
     
  9. Doc Munson

    Premature Consternation

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    The Twins are in 1st place in the AL Central by 4.5 games, yet there is creeping concern everywhere regarding the Twins future. Are all of the sweaty palms  and consternation? is it an overreaction to just a bad stretch against a bad team? Are the Twins about to lose their hold on 1st place with us playing the AL East while Cleveland gets Baltimore, Texas, and Oakland?
     
    Lets take a look at some of the concern in Twins Territory and see what we think.
    1) Our offense.
    Before last nights game with the Blue Jays we had scored 3 or less runs in 7 of our last 12 games, with multiple shutouts, and low number hit games. We do not seem to have much consistency overall recently.  and those low runs scoring games came against the likes of KC and Detroit.  Does that make it seem worse? I think it does. also,  Buxton has been a shell of himself, and we have been putting out a number of replacement level players due to injuries.
    Hopefully last nights game re-ignites Buxton. It has been incredibly clear to anyone, even morons like me who know nothing about hitting mechanics, that Buxton has been off-balance at the plate. He has been off balance because of his right knee.  His back knee, his leverage knee. As a result of not being able be comfortable putting his weight on the back foot/knee, and torque of it twisting, he has been swinging with his weight on his front leg, causing him to be off balance and losing power.  Hopefully this is beginning to change as his knee gets a little better, but of course even a "healthy" Buxton plays only 2/3 of our games.
    The others...
    Miranda has been unplayable, although ironically has been hitting pretty well during this stretch. Garlick should not be on a MLB team, Jeffers has been horrible offensively, But really, overall everyone else has been at least decent. Urshella and Sanchez have been hitting well lately, while not eye popping numbers they are playable and have come up big recently.  Losing Correa again, will be a short term hit with no long term impact. Hopefully Lewis is only out for a short time (but then let the debate reignite) Kepler has been decent, Larnach has been hitting well, Arraez has been the Rodney Carew/Tony Gwynn clone many saw him as when he was a rookie. 
    So our offense should not be a problem going forward once we get everyone back healthy.
    1B - Arraez ??  while nto an ideal position we need his bat in the lineup.
    2B - Polanco.  I would actually submit that even though he leads the team in RBI, and even though he is coming off an All-Star year, and has been a great Twin, he has to be the one to be impacted when Royce Lewis gets back with the team.
    3B - Urshela - his .270 avg, above average defense and clutch hitting has him holding down 3B for the rest of the year (at least for now)
    SS - Correa - He is obviously there longterm... unless we crater, then he is traded and Lewis slides in at SS.
    RF - Kepler - very serviceable, and actually having a pretty decent year,
    CF - BUxton - with the obvious exception of his rest days is a lock.
    LF - Larnach  - Mashing with strong exit Velo, lots of doubles which are starting to turn into HR
    C - Jeffers/ Sanchez - Jeffers cant hit but plays majority of games, with Sanchez backing him up and being primary DH
    DH Sanchez/rotation - His bat is starting to come alive. His bat was never really the problem.
     
    Again the only real issue going forward here is where do you put Lewis?  and what happens if Kirilloff continues his 337/449/932 play in St. Paul??
    I am not overly concerned with our offense, we should be just fine. Which brings us... "gulp" to our pitching. and I am going to combine coaching with our pitching, because a lot of the pitching performance is also based on how they are used.
    Starters;
    While there is good here, lets assume the good is good and only concern ourselves with a few questions.
    Chris Archer: ERA is good at 3.89, but just 39 IP in 10 starts???  This cannot hold up, if we only let him go 4 IP then he needs to be in the pen as the "long guy" Each starter impacts the game before and after him as well as the one he starts. we cannot regularly use our pen for 5 innings every fifth start.  Last night he was cruising and still pulled after 57 pitches!!! This needs to change!!  we may be able to compete in a pathetic AL Central like this, but this kind of ball does not win against good teams in the playoffs. At this point it is more of a coaching issue than an issue with Archer, but it is still an issue.
    Sonny Gray: Again great numbers, but another trip to the IL? is this concerning? I guess only time will tell, but we will be without him for another 2-3 weeks and then another month plus of treating him with kid gloves to get him "ramped back up".  he only had 33 innings in 7 games for less than a 5 IP per game average as it was, so look for more bullpen busting, innings restricted starts when he gets back
     
    Dylan Bundy: Throw out back to back bad starts in Aoril/May and he has been quite good. but can you "throw out" 25% of a pitchers starts?  and can he hold up over the long haul? History says no
    What is Smeltzer?:  Is he a fluky guy with a weird delivery that team will hit better the more they see him. or is he legit now? he has always been phenomenal in short stretches in the past.
    Ryan is good and Ober has been decent.
     
    OVERALL:  Be scared, be VERY scared!!! IF we continue to have starting pitching go less than half the game, whether by plan or by play, then our pen will get overexposed, burned out and we will start losing games we should win.  Unfortunately I think our philosophy about never letting a starter see a batter a 3rd time will be what holds us back. 
  10. Doc Munson

    A great problem

    By Doc Munson,


    Season So Far
    While it is still quite early and anything can happen for good or for bad, it looks like the Twins will be contending all year long.
    We have a potntial great problem to have. Is Lewis Legit? and if so what do we do there?
    The Twins will need pitching help along the way, as mentioned before our rotation consists of either unproven pitchers or reclamation projects with nearly all of them coming off of year(s) with very low innings. With Paddack already out for the season, Bundy struggling, we already have two holes to fill. Archer is still on a pitch count, and Baily missing time with a hammy.. 
    Ryan has been solid, and Winder has done quite well filling in, We do have more young guys who could help fill in, but do we try and contend with young inexperienced pitchers?
    On the offensive side,,,
    Sano has been an even bigger dissapointment and then got injured, Kiriloff so far has not translated, Larnach started hitting well before going on the shelf temporarily, Buxton has been a stud, but again misses time. Correa started slowly, but has been coming on before getting hit in the hand by TWO pitches and going on DL.
     
    So what do the Twins do if we are actually contending, yet have a lot of holes to fill?
    Would it be borderline blasphemous  to suggest trading Correa?
    Lets say Correa comes back and plays at MVP Correa level, do you trade him or run out the season with him?
    Yes he has said he would like to stay, but what else is he going to say right after signing a deal with opt outs after each year? 
    It is a small sample size, but is Royce Lewis the real deal? could he be a viable future SS?
    Let's take a look at a best case scenario. The Twins are contending and Correa is playing very well. To me the best move i to actually trade Correa at the deadline. What can we leverage from our 1/2 season of Correa?
    Take a look at some contenders who could use an upgrade at SS.
    Cardinals: Would the Cardinals give up their top prospect in Jordan Walker for Correa?  IF they would, then we should jump at that even if we need to actually ADD to the deal. Jordan Walker at 3B and Miranda at 1B for the future???
    Yankees: Yes they have Kiner (from us), and he is playing OK, and yes they have "cant miss" prospects like Volpe and Peraza at AA & AAA, but they are both actually "missing" this year. They are on pace for 122 wins, so do they NEED an upgrade? What if the Twins would get a package of Jasson Dominguez and Luis Gil? Dominguez more of a project than Walker but has MASSIVE potential.
    Lets say you think Lewis is the real deal. I would love to hear opinions on what you do with Correa this year. DO you trade him? if so to who and for what? Do you keep him and demote Lewis back to AAA for the season? or move Lewis to a new position?
    Let me here your thoughts on the one truly intriguing position decision for the Twins.
     
     
  11. Doc Munson
    If this is not the definition of the AL Central I do not know what is. Twins in 1st place!!!  with a.500 record.
    Just a couple of weeks in I think it is important to take a look at a significant season milestone. May 1st.  May 1st is when the "skinny mirror" gets replaced with a normal one.  You know those skinny mirrors, those mirrors that make you look skinnier, or "better" than you actually are.  While I am very happy to be in first place, and I am thrilled, and surprised with the Twins pitching this year, 
    The Twins, as have all teams, have greatly benefited from a 28 man roster, and the ability to carry extra pitchers, carrying extra pitchers allows you to rely more on the bullpen, This also allows you to baby your starters and not give them too many innings, or pitches at the start of the year. This is evident by Chris Archer's comments after his last start. after his last start he said he knew it was going to be a short start because he was target for 50-60 pitches.... FIFTY to SIXTY???  Normally I would be screaming at the top of my lungs how this is nto baseball.  BUT given the "unique" rules this year (Although I can see MLB permanently going to a 28 man roster for the 1st month to "ease in pitchers") you have to play and take advantage of the rules that are in place.  I am not slamming the Twins for taking advantage of them, I am saying the Twins may not be the pitching juggernaut they currently look like without them.
    As stated previously by me, and every other baseball fan with at least a modicum of intelligence, the Twins pitchers are a collection of young pitchers who have not thrown more than 120 innings, and veteran starters coming off injuries/poor performance who also have not thrown more than 120 innings recently. This can be very easily covered up with a 6 man rotation, and a 28 man roster to allow for short starts consistently.
     
    Again, EVERY team got this benefit, and also again Twins pitchers have been GREAT!!! Just brace yourself. the Twins will be hit harder than most with the rosters going back down to 26. This is because not only is the roster trimming down to 26, but if the Twins continue to go with a 6 man rotation (and really who do you take out??) then that means you can no longer allow your starters to go only 4-5 innings because your bullpen with get overworked. This then in turn puts more workload back on those inexperienced starters and veterans coming off injuries.
    We will have a much better idea of where we are at at the end of My than at the beginning. Maybe it is just the typical MN sports fan in me, but I am very excited and happy about our team, yet at the same time will not believe it and am waiting for the train wreck.  But until that happens, I am choosing to say the Twins Roster is half full instead of half empty.
  12. Doc Munson

    Twins Pursuit of Paddock

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    The Twins go all offseason barely touching on the rotation, then they make a move for Sonny Gray. Ok a decent move, but again trading away Chase Petty is only a good move if they make other good moves. Then with abotu a week or so to go before real games they sign Chris Archer.  OK, doesnt really move the needle, but isnt a move that will hurt you. Now on the Eve of what would have been the Twins Opener there are strong indications the Twins are trying to get Chris Paddock from the Padres.
    NO.  FULL STOP!!
    I don't care if you get him for a bag of used batting practice balls. He brings ZERO added value above what we already have available to us!!!
    It is crazy to say we are already flush with pitchers, BUT... we are already flush with THAT KIND of pitchers!!!
    We have 3 quality starters a 4th with potential and a 5th starter we can easily replace with Winder after his first few horrible starts.
     
    Top 3:
    Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  Quality pitchers, 2 of the 3 unproven over the long haul, but still quality.
    4th = Archer. yes a reclamation project a bit, but if you are selling hope, he can be a decent #4 with "flash games" where he dominates.
    5th = Bundy is a joke. he will be out of the rotation and off the team by the end of May, but that will allow Winder to step right in. and we have a couple other potential starters who could use the first month to get in pitching shape as well.
    SO what does adding Paddock do?  He doesnt replace the top 3, or even top 4. so that means Bundy goes. and even with all of the afore mentioned Bundy Bashing, he has been good in Spring. so you gonna replace him now??
     
    It makes ZERO sense to bring in another pitcher unless it is a marked improvement over another pitcher. And Paddock simply isnt. 
    By every single metric he is a pitcher who had a good rookie year and has gotten progressive worse each year after. PLUS has injury concerns with his pitching arm!!!
    What is even MORE alarming are the reports that we would consider moving Taylor Rodgers!!!!!  Seriously???  I understand Jhoan "Splinker" Duran could be a bullpen stud, but to move Rodgers in a package for Paddock???  This could be rampant speculation, but if this happens the Twins better get some SERIOUS other compensation for Rodgers.
  13. Doc Munson

    Help me understand the Paddack move

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    This article is not meant for me to give MY opinion, I have done that in a previous post. This is to beg the fan base out there to help me understand how this move makes any sense except to cut costs (yet we are also sending cash considerations to SD as well).
    I liked Rooker, even though he is an "old" young guy and not much of a fit here. I don't have an issue moving him though.
    My question is why move an All-Star Closer who is a significant clubhouse presence and a fan favorite for an average at best pitcher a not significantly better than any of our other current starters. and here is where I need help understanding.
     
    Who is/should Paddack replace in the rotation? and how big of an upgrade is he over that pitcher?
    As I stated earlier, unless there is already an injury we have not heard about, the only one who gets moved out of the rotation is Bundy and is Paddack a significant enough upgrade over Bundy to warrant sending out Rogers? or do we go 6 man?  But again this is not about my opinions.  
     
    Help me understand, I legitimately cannot see the added value Paddack could bring.
     
    Please explain how this move makes sense and who gets impacted.
  14. Doc Munson

    Manaea moved... Just Sayin...

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    Twins FO obviously is content with Bundy and Archer filling out the rotation.  I am not nearly as rosy on the perspective of counting on them to anchor our rotation. I would love to be wrong however. As I have said in previous posts, the Sonny Gray move only makes sense if we end up making other significant moves, whether no or midseason. After all you do nto give away a potential arm (and personality to be a face of your franchise) like Petty in a "first move" without making final moves to ensure you are in the best position to succeed. 
     
    Also as I have noted many times over, I beleive the crux of the Twins pitching plan all along has been to allow our young pitchers to takeover. Maybe not at the beginning of the year, but by the end of the year.
    Another concern I have shared is the relatiely few innings each of our rotation members have logged each year over the past 3 years. even if successful, 150 IP level will represent MASSIVE jumps in workload, adn with our "data dorks" running the team, they will be reluctant to hit those big jumps. so it is either 4-5 innings per start, or a number of our guys being shut down (or injured) for parts of the season.  and this was BEFORE the Chris Archer signing.
     
    The preamble above is just to remind those of where our rotation sits. and remind people that even with the arrival of Archer, smart money says it is not enough. The two main trade pieces that remained seemed to be Manaea, and Montas.  Manaea is off the board, so lets take a look at what Oakland got in return, if the Twins could have matched that, and whether the Twins makign a similar move would have been worth it.
    WHAT DID OAK GET..
     
     
    #1 an 19 year old infield prospect with 55/40 scores for hit tool and power tool, and 50/50/50 for run, arm, field.  so a decent infield prospect but not overly pricey in terms prospect quality.  #12 prospect in SD.
     
    #2 #26 SD prospect in a 25 year old RHP. who split time between AA & AAA in 2021. with the following grades. FB=55  SLIDER =45  CHANGE =60 CONTROL =50.
    I am nto an advanced scout, but just looking at the scout rankings, and reading brief bios, I think a very comparable, if not better package, coudl have been doen by the Twins...
     
    Keoni Cavaco is still only 20, with toosl at 45/50/60/60/50. SO one could argue a better prospect.  OR we could use 19 year old Noah Miller as a comp with his 55/45/50/55/55 comps.   I mean we gave up our 2021 1st round pick for Gray, why not give up our comp balance pick for Manaea right???
     
    Now for a comp for the 25 year old middling pitcher.  HMMMM  I wonder if the Twins have any "aging prospects" on the verge of MLB that are in their mid 20s?  This one may be tough, btu I will dig deep!!
    Chris Vallimont, Blayne Enlow, Drew Strotman, Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Matt Canterino, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Jor Ryan.
     
    Now of course there are names in their that I would not touch, but just including the list of pitchers who are all at least as good as the pitcher the A's acquired, and equally close to the majors. So with that it is pretty easy to conclude that the Twins COULD have matched or exceed that package SD sent to Oakland, without even flinching.
    Now the question is why wouldnt we?  Wouldnt we rather have a Manaea over a Bundy?   Why are the Twins standing pat when quality pitchers are beign made available for what appears to be very modest prospect returns??
     
    But DANG!!!!!  How fun is this going to be to watch Buxton and Correa this year!!
  15. Doc Munson

    Re-questioning the Front Office

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    Signing Correa was a great move regardless of how long he is here. it is a move I screamed for for months.  This bought the Twins FO a bit of time and good will. Yet the Twins are still an enigma, and you cannot clearly call them contenders or rebuilders yet. This is not a new take. We have some pieces that just don't quite fit, and a few that are missing. Just because they might not fit traditionally doesn't mean it can't work. It just shows inconsistent messaging and makes a fan think there is no true plan. 
    Gary Sanchez: Doesn't quite fit. 
    Sanchez is essentially a DH only. yes he will catch maybe 30-35% of the games, but he is a liability behind the plate until he proves otherwise. and with a young and/or erratic pitching staff (Ryan, Ober, and all of the soon to be starters = young.  Archer, Bundy = erratic) you want him behind the plate as little as possible. Also both he and Jeffers are RH which means there is no natural R/L platoon. Yes this seemed to work with Jeffers and Garver, but none the less it still reduces flexibility.  As a result we cannot open up the DH for other hitters against certain righties or lefties. Also this requires us to have a 3rd catcher on the club, because if we want Sanchez's bat in the lineup then we have both Jeffers & Sanchez in the starting lineup and otherwise risk losing the DH if something happens. having the primary DH also be the back up catcher is the LEAST flexible option you can have, short of pure DH like Cruz.  it is almost the SAME as having Sanchez a pure DH... Which I thought we were getting away from in order to have more flexibility.  This is why it shows a lack of clear strategy when putting together the team.
    Hopefully Sanchez significantly outslugs the alternatives... Rooker, Larnach, et al.  but by simply not having Sanchez would provide significantly more positional flexibility when you have Sano (can be hot or cold) Kepler (can play a good OF but really hasn't had a strong overall offensive game in years) Kiriloff (unproven but loads of talent) Rooker, Larnach (redundant poor to average OF but potentially strong bats) and soon to be added, Martin.
     
    Pitching: missing
    I have said all offseason due to the lack of even TRYING to get any top FA pitchers, the Twins obviously have a plan that does not include bringing in additional pitchers. Their plan is MUST be to roll with multiple young arms. Again I am not saying I am against this, or that it will not work, but it clearly is not traditionally what teams who are saying they are contending do. Signing Archer is a nothingburger. I would love to have him turn back the clock and pitch like he did 5-7 years ago, and he MAY, but it is not realistic to bank on it, same with Bundy.  At this point, with the Twins walking the fine line between contending and propping open the window to contend, it is clear the Twins will be waiting on any big pitching trades to see where they are by trade deadline.  If we are contending, then Twins will pull the trigger and move some prospects for an Ace, or at least a #2 or 3 starter. At this point, why move prospect talent if you do not know if you will contend? Which brings us back to the Sonny Gray trade.  You have to give something to get something. BUT giving up an arm like Chase Petty? to ONLY add one solid #2 starter in Gray, and not finish it off with a strong rotation??? Gray (or better could have/would have been there at the deadline). at $22M over 2 years, for a measly extra $3M per year, could have signed JON Gray... and still had a top arm in our system. and then if you want to make a trade deadline move can move him then. Trading your #1 draft pick, and arm talent like that should be done to secure the FINAL piece, not the FIRST piece... especially if you are not going to secure the SECOND piece.
     
    You can say that high school pitchers flame out significantly more often than they pan out. and I can agree with that. but why would you move someone with such upside, yet hold onto a bunch of prospects who still haven't fully panned  out at 27 (Rooker) 25 (Larnach) 24 (Kirilloff... although he SHOULD this year) etc, that you do not have enough AB's for anyways? OF course may not get back top of the rotation starters for them, but stopping at just one #2 starter for a big arm is worse.
    It is not that the Twins FO should be slammed for making BAD moves, it is just they need to be questioned for making INCOMPLETE moves.
     
  16. Doc Munson

    Twins continue being Twins...

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    I hate being so negative. I REALLY DO!!!  hehe I know it sure may not seem that way to those of you who have read a number of my other posts. Butit is just so frustrating. WE say we are going to compete but it loosk we are making moves (or lack of moves) with no apparent overall plan.
     
    If our plan is simply to go with the young pitchers we have and use as a developmental year, I am cool with that, but at least come out and SAY IT!!! Now they cant say "We see this as a developmental year"  but they can come out and say "We plan on contending this year, and we think our quality young pitchers are the ones that are going to help us contend this year!" We still have an overall junk rotation. at least from a "We plan on being competitive" standpoint.
    Sonny Gray is a quality starter. he is the #1 on this staff, maybe a #2.5 on others, but still he is good. He gives me hope.
    Joe Ryan. I really like this kid, I think he can be quite good. he is a plus. BUT if I have to be nitpick He still is unproven. was great over 5 starts and he has pitched well in teh minors so their is hope. Nothing you can rely on yet, but you can hope.
    Bailey Ober.  SEE ABOVE.  except insert "kinda" for "really"  Hope but cautious. Again unproven
    Dylan Bundy. Where is my puke emoji.  Watch him prove me wrong, but I just don't see it.  Wait... WHAT??? we can give him $4M but cant give Pineda $5.5M? SEE BELOW.
    Jax/Strotman/Dobank/Thorpe/Smeltzer. Just no.
     
    SO there you have it!!! Now we still could make one of those Oakland trades. and really it doesn't matter WHEN you make moves, as long as you make them, but LETS FRICKIN MAKE THEM ALREADY!!
     
    Anyways... Here is teh Twins being Twins part.
    As I mentioned in another piece the Twins always come out of the woodwork AFTER a player signs elsewhere to claim they had interest and tried. Well Michael Pineda just signed with Detroit for a $5.5M base. Pineda expressed a strong desire to return. Pineda, while not the most dominant and most reliable still posted a sub 4 ERA and was the only Twins pitcher you could consistently count on to go at least 6 full innings. yet we cant even spend $5.5M on him?  What will the Twins come up with as the reason for why they didn't sign him??? or why Pineda "chose to go elsewhere"?
    With regards to Story, I hate to break it to the Storyobos out there but the recent comments mean he aint coming here.  #1 he said he is open to a short term position switch to sign. He does not have to switch positions for the Twins. so Cue #1 there.   Cue #2 is he said he wants to sign with a contender. NOPE. and the original indicator...he had turned down multiple offers of $100M. If you actually thought the Twins would spend $100M on him your nuts. SO now, this makes the Yankee deal even more questionable. You solve the SS spot only to make it a big question mark again and get back the same type of 3B, and a redundant catcher... who by the way cant catch. That was a beautiful trade!!! lets create a hole (ss) downgrade at 2 other positions in order to save some money that we are not going to spend elsewhere... but yeah "We plan on contending".  Now you will hear how we were "in on" Story and he just got "better offers" elsewhere, but the truth is we never had a chance.
    There is one move, and one move only that could garner ANY amount of optimism from most Twins fans.  That is to dole out a record contract to sign Correa.  a Montas trade does nothing. We still have a hole at SS, we still have a platoon of 2 RH catchers, one of which cant catch. The Twins should shock the world and give Correa a "Seager" deal.  and then STILL trade for Montas. 
     
    I know has gotten very long winded, but there makes a lot of sense for a Correa signing. Look at who would/could have on our roster over the next handful of years...
    3B = Miranda Pre-arb deals. (Urshela gone) SS Correa Massive deal.  2B = Polanco,very team friendly deal.  1B = Kirilloff Pre-arb years. (Sano gone) RF = Larnach pre-arb years (Kepler gone)  LF = Martin/ Lewis  pre-arb years.  CF Buxton big contract but only other big one.
    PITCHING>>>
    Ryan = pre-arb years  Ober =Pre arb years. Balazovic pre-arb Strotman... Do I really have to list EVERY near MLB arm we have??? You get the gist
    We can have a full rotation of young controllable arms, and young controllable high ceiling position players. paired around 2 mega superstars in Buxton and Correa.
     
    But to close this rambling nonsense, I wouldnt even mind, and would kind alike to see us just go young,  give Lewis SS out of Spring, go with all fo our young arms... JUST FRICKIN SAY IT!!!
  17. Doc Munson

    What are we waiting on to complete our roster?

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    What exactly is the Twins FO waiting on to fill out our roster? From the outside looking in it seems to most that we still need at least 1 more pitcher, we need a SS, and bullpen help never hurts.  Yes, I understand it take two to tango, and of course we hear all over the place that the Twins are "talking" to this team or that FA, but seriously??? sitting with a payroll of just $72M (prolly closer to $90M when you add in the final pre-arb salaries) which means we have between $30-50M to spend, just to get mirror last years level. Are we once again nickel and diming other teams and FA?  Are we once again going to hear how the Twins were "in on", or "had interest in" or "had made offers to" different pitchers ONLY AFTER THEY SIGN ELSEWHERE???  It is easy to claim interest after the fact.
     
    If we truly want to contend, it is OK to occasionally overspend if it allows you at actually get quality pieces and contend. You dont always have to spend 80 cents on the dollar.
    Michael Pineda is still unsigned. Obviously there are reasons why any unsigned player is still unsigned. with the exception of the few at the top if they arent signed yet, that means noone else is really beating down the doors to sign them. and there are most likely reasons.
    Michael Pineda is still out there. While not a game changer and not ultra reliable for the long run, when he has pitched he has given us quality innings. Why not bring him back??? can get him cheap and if he can give us innings on the front end, we will have our young kids ready on the back end of the season.
    Jake Arrieta is still available. While HORRID over the last year plus, why not take a low cost flier? His TRUE value is not necessarily any innings he can provide, but to serve as a role model of the work ethic needed for our young guys.
    Johnny Cueto. He is older but still serviceable.
    On the position player front, while I do NOT want the Twins to sign Trevor Story unless it is a 1 year deal mainly for his defense, can we get going with setting our infield already???? Story has reportedly previously turned down multiple $100M contract offers. If this is what it will take ot get him, then RUN AWAY!!!  if his ask drops down and he is wiling to take a 1 year "prove it" deal to show he can hit outside of Coors as well, then get him, but lets go already!!!  Unless of course we are hoping one of the youngsters actually turns out to be ready.
    We are less than 3 weeks from opening day, and do not have a full 5 quality starters, and do not have a set SS, We do not REALLY have a settled catching situation, can you REALLY plan on putting Sanchez behind the dish to control a young rotation even is a split role??? 
    At this point we might as well just throw record contract out to Carlos Correa, we have little future commitments!! so could afford him and Buxton even with his incentives. Obviously we are resetting our "core".  Sano not so much "core" so we wont have to be paying him his FA money. we have Buxton locked up, Polanco is still locked in, we will be having 5-6 years of control on 3B = Miranda, OF = Lewis and/or Martin. 1B = Kirilloff and/or Larnach. We are positioning ourselves to have a god young pitching rotation, with a potential full pre-arb rotation by next year with Ryan, Ober, Balazovich, Winder, Canterino, Woods RIchardson et all, you know the group by now.
    So if we are actually looking to contend, and we look to teh future and see most near FA contracts gone, and we have the talent to win with at AA & AAA, then lets overspend and get Correa, or for heck sakes overspend in prospects to get BOTH Manea and Montas.  Just DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!
     
  18. Doc Munson

    CORREA!!!! HOLY COW!!!

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    OK 2 things...   
    #1 I take it all back!!!!
    #2 I TOLD YOU SO!!!  lol
    Litereally as I was typing my most ramblng missive to date slamming the Twins for doing nothing they do THIS!!!
     
    Also though, in that same missive (and in others) I was the first to call this move!!!  read back yoully find them!!
    WOW!!!
    INSTANT contenders!!!
    Nowgo get Montas... but back to me being the only one to call this shot (on the heels of calling the trade Donaldson shot).
    the defense on teh left side is now the best in bsaeball, Urshela, and Correa.
     
    What a great "bridge" to Lewis!!  LOL
    Correa and BUxton #1 and #2 overall draft picks in the same draft on teh same team, in their prime. has that ever happend??
     
    AS you can I cannot formcomplete thoughts but just bumping from one to the other due toexcitement!!!
  19. Doc Munson

    What to make of the Donaldson trade???

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    This one may take a while to understand, and may need another move as well.  I can understand moving Donaldson, heck I have even thrown out my own trade scenarios regarding him, but I would have thought we would have returned some pitching for him, not just clearing salary commitments. There MUST be a second (or third if you think the Kiner-Falefa trade was setting this up) shoe to drop here.
     
    Trading Donaldson...
    This could be a hard sell while also trying to claim we are going to contend, but really you cannot fault the FO for wanting to get out from his remaining years. But still you would think we would have targeted pitching for him.
    Trading Rortveldt...
    This really is a low impact move, a bit of a throw in in my eyes. but one that is a touch confusing becasue we got back another RH catcher, losing the R/L platoon options. Plus SAnchez isnt much behind the plate.
    Tradign Kiner-Falefa...
    This is very confusing, as he was actually a perfect fit for what we needed.  This is where the main TBD comes into play. How do we fill SS now?
     
    We get...
    Gio Urshela, This isnt a BAD get as he can play a decent 3B and has a good bat. He can also play some SS as well so there is a bit of flexibility there.
    Gary Sanchez... Here is the MASSIVE quesion mark.  Some reports indicate he is not part of the Twins future, some say he is.  If he stays with teh Twins The Twins are looking set up to be a feast or famine offense...  Sanchez and Sano are two High power, MEGA high K RH hitters. and Sanchez is a potential liability behind the plate.
     
    There HAS to be follow up move/trade or two here right??
    If teh follow up is a Trevor Story signing, I will be INCREDIBLY pissed off.
    If the follow up is another mega deal taking on the contracts of Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer and having Prospect CJ Abrams also come our way for something like Gary Sanchez and Max Kepler then I am all for it!!!!
    Anyways... thoughts on the trade? or what comes next??
    Canyou think of a rationale I cant for this?
     
  20. Doc Munson
    This is a weird (but good) trade in my opinion. Yes I too like Garver, and think he could have helped bring offensive thump to our lineup. and no I do not think Jeffers is necessarily ready for a FT role, and no I do not think we have particularly strong platoon options with Jeffers.  So why do I sorta like the deal? HE is a very solid player at multiple positions. He will obviously start at SS for us at the beginning of the year, but he could also play 3B, and maybe a little catcher. Very solid defender at 3B & SS.
    But what intrigues me the most about this deal is what it says about OTHER positions.
    #1 we need pitching. We didn't sign anyone of note prior to lock out. We didn't secure Rodon post lock out, and my sources say we didn't even consider making an offer.  So we don't make any moves toward a pitcher, and we trade one of our most tradeable assets for infield help (although we needed a SS). This speaks to priorities. You would THINK that pitching would be the priority with us having basically 3 starters as we sit. The fact that the Twins are not acting like pitching is a priority, is because they don't think it is. Why would this be? Obviously the answer... or THEIR answer, is because we have what we need in house with young pitchers.  If you don't sign FA pitching, and you use trade chips to acquire non-pitchers, then that screams that you already have at least SOME of the pitching you need in house.
    #2 OR... you can still address pitching. Combine this trade, with increased CBT and Universal DH, and you have all of the makings of a Josh Donaldson trade. With Kiner-Falefa to play 3B until Miranda is ready. Can you think of an NL team, newly in need of a DH, that has deep pitching, for whom Donaldson has played (and loved his time there) and who is about to lose a big dollar face of the franchise 1B bat to the Dodgers?  Here is a hint.  it rhymes with Atlanta Braves. There is now a logical move to be made with Donaldson, AND can finally help address pitching.  Trade Donaldson to the Braves for Touki Toussaint  and Kyle Muller. Neither are really proven MLB pitchers, but Touki has had flashes of brilliance at the MLB level, and Muller would be just another near MLB prospect. but it would at least make a move towards pitching.
    Overall this was a decent yet curious  use of potential trade assets.  What other moves do you see this potentially leading to? or what doyou think this says about our pitching situation?
  21. Doc Munson

    What the what??

    By Doc Munson,


    MLB CBA
    It is great news to hear that MLB & MLBPA are getting closer to a deal, but the early info on INTL draft and the QO are very confusing.
    Basically what it means is that NEITHER side actually really care about either of these issues, and as a result were holding up baseball for absolutely no reason.
    SO what is this grand bargain that was struck between MLB & MLBPA?
    Well according to Jeff Passan, 
    they have agreed to get this...a new deadline...  LOL  they have agreed to a July 25th deadline to figure out how an International Draft would work. an agreement on an international draft will be tied to the Qualifying Offer and drat picks associated with that.  OK fair enough, but what happens if they are unable to get an agreement?? NOTHING!!!!!  not a gosh darn thing... LITTERALLY!!!  IF they do not come to an agreement, then they simply go back to what the current QO rules are, and simply go back to what the current international signing rules are.  SO the results of one of the bigger sticking points is "MEH, well lets just kick it down the road, and if we dont agree on anything no big deal, we will just do nothing, and go back to what it was,   BUT  we can still agree to ruin baseball for the fans right??  ok , good"
     
    Ridiculous
     
    All this being said, my hypocritical self will be happy as heck and positive as heck once baseball is back.  LOL
  22. Doc Munson
    I like many fans am frustrated with MLB & MLBPA. Both sides are equally to blame. I have shared ideas on how to end the stalemate in previous posts.  One of the simplest that touches on multiple aspects (tanking, draft, "pre-arb" player pool) Is simply to have a Draft Tournament. With all teams not making the playoffs playing in a single elimination tournament to decide the top draft pick and subsequent draft order. This hits on tanking and the draft, the additional new TV rights to these games could be used to fund the gap in the "pre-arb" player pool. or fund the WHOLE THING!!!  A win for MLBPA for getting the compensation they claim they want for young players, and MLB saves by using "new" money to fund it and not costing them any of the current revenues they are offering to fund the pool with.
    But what I really want to share on this discussion, is how truly disingenuous the MLBPA really is. They SAY they are fighting for the younger players to earn more, they SAY this is not about the big stars but the "average guy" and the 30+yr old veteran. If this is true then they would not be fighting over CBT threshold, but fighting for a salary FLOOR, but that discussion was thrown out almost immediately. Lets ask ourselves. who benefits from a higher CBT threshold? Is it the average team? NO. it is the big market teams, with just a handful of of team willing and/or able to exceed the threshold, or even get CLOSE to it. Most teams have not comeclose to the current threshold because they cannot afford it. SO by raising the CBT threshold, will teams automatically spend more? Of course not!!! That is liek an average person saying... "hmmm, I that car dealer would finance that new 2021 vehicle for me at $50K max sales price, but I just cant afford it.  BUT WAIT!!! the 2022 version they will finance me for up to $75K!!!  OK ILL BUY IT!!!"  Obviosuly raising the CBT threshold only impacts a handful of teams. 
    But since we are focusing on the MLBPA here, ask yourself, "what kind of player is most likely to be impacted by increasing the CBT threshold"?  Is it the average payer? is it the pre-arb? NO itis the superstar. MLB teams will go over the cap... ANY CAP, or spend UP TO the cap to sign players like Carlos Correa, Max SCherzer, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, etc.  But would a team go over the cap to sign a player like say, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, heck, even a player like Anthony Rizzo?  OF course not.  What will happen will be the rich get richer. the superstars instead of signing $30M AAV will get $36M AAV. They will still eat up most of money available, and again leave the average player, especially the 30+yr old veteran to settle for the leftovers. It is either that or teams use the underpaid "pre-arbs".
     
    NOW, if there were a $100M salary FLOOR as opposed to top end CBT, NOW players would paid evenly. The top players mentioned above will still get their mega deals, because rich teams will spend regardless. Now that the lower revenue teams MUST spend, they will be forced to spend more on the average player. The team MUST spend the money anyways, whether they are planning to compete or rebuild. so now a rebuilding team can actually OVERPAY the 30+ yr old veteran. Teams would "overspend" on short 1-2 year deals. a player like Rizzo now could easily receive a $20M deal somewhere for 1 yr (or more) because again the money must be spent, and why not spend it on a contract that will be coming off the books by the next year?  Also if a team MUST spend the money anyways,  and do not want to pay a veteran to take AB's away from younger players, then they would "overpay" or at least increase the pay to their own young players. Take a team like Baltimore. lets say Adley Rutchsman is on the big league roster (and he should). If the Orioles are currently sitting well under the $100M threshold, would it not behoove them to pay Adley $10-20M or more this year if they have to spend the money anyways??  it helps build loyalty from teh players part, so nwo when he reaches Free Agency he may be more willing to give a "hometown discount"  to stay.  "Overpaying" pre-arb players becasue the money must be spent anyways woudl also then reduce the need of the "pre-arb pool".
     
    A salary floor helps ALL, an increase in CBT only helps the superstars. the fact that the union is fighting for the wrong one shows their true colors.  The proof is in the pudding.  over the last 6 years, with INCREASING CBT thresholds, the average MLB salary has DECREASED!!  Just like other sports it has been and always will be a star driven league. and I don't even have an issue with that. but at least have the integrity to either say what you are actually fighting for, or actually fight for the things you say you are for.
    Interested to hear thoughts
  23. Doc Munson

    Twins will change MLB in 2022

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins will change the MLB in 2022
    The Minnesota Twins this year are in position to change MLB!!
     
    For a team that has claimed a desire to contend in 2022 it has very little in the way of pitching, and has shown little to no interest in the FA agent crop of pitchers. SO how can a team with current starters slotted in as Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober?
     
    Dylan Bundy has only thrown over 162 innings twice in his career and that was 2017-2018. and coming off seasons of 65 (Covid) and 90 innings. He cannot be counted on to take on a bunch of innings.
    Joe Ryan has never thrown over 123 innings... ZERO in 2020 (covid) and just 92 between AAA & MLB last year. even a 50% increase is still less than 150 innings.
    Bailey Ober never threw more than 80 innigns in any season prior to last year when he set a highwater mark of 92 innigns between minors and MLB. again another 50% increase get to only 150 innings.
    So the three pitchers we have on our team assuming 32 starts per year will pitch les than 5 innings on average.
    Our minor league pitching that is near MLB ready or MLB ready are...
    Jordan Balazovic... 23...  coming off career high 97 innings
    Jhoan Duran... 24... coming off injury  100IP in 2018 & 115 IP 2019 but 0 2020 and just 16 in 2021.
    Simeon Woods Richardson... 21... innings max of 106 in 2019 with 0 in 2020 and 53 in 2021
    Josh Winder... 25...  a respectable 125 IP in 2019 but again 0 in 2020 and 72 in 2021
    Matt Canterino... 24... never more than 25 in his 3 seasons including 23 in 2021
    Drew Strotman... 25... finally cracked 100 after never throwing more than 50 IP  with 112 in 2021.
     
    SO... you see most of our prospects are at the age where they should be contributing to a MLB (usualyl 23, 24) this includes. Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Canterino, Strotman.
    This all begs the question...  How do we get these guys to the big leagues before they are "too old" But yet not ONE indiviudally seems fully ready by if nothign else at least pitch/innings count to be a starting pitcher full time?
     
    Sure, we can move a couple to the bullpen.  BUT on a team like the Twins, who love analytics, and seemingly never let their pitchers face a batter a third time, you will see the Twins go with 1, MAYBE 2 traditional starters (once we resign Pineda) and the rest will be piggy backed pitching "teams"
    Twins will have 8 starters. with the #3, #4, #5 starters all pitching in the "buddy system" with each one going a max of 4 innings.  The theory being that if each starter can go 4 innings, then that leaves just 1 inning for the back of the bullpen to take care of, so as a result you do not need a ton of relievers. You just have your top 3 power arms in the bullpen.
    So you have a pitching 13 man pitching staff of 8 starters, 3 back end relievers and 2 "wild cards" or specialists.
     
    This is a move I HATE!!! but this WILL happen in 2022, and the sad thing as I want the Twins to succeed, then I have to want this to succeed, and if it does then in the copy cat league we have, more teams will do it and we will lose more and more of "traditional" ball.
  24. Doc Munson

    Post Lock out Moves: Potential Twins Trades

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    There are relatively few guarantees in baseball, and even less when it comes to what a new CBA will look like. Let's take a look at a few potential additions, and how it can impact the Twins (and other clubs). Today I want to talk about one potentially significant change. 
    Salary Floor
    Both sides have spoken about a potential salary floor in some form or fashion.  When both sides reference the possibility of something then it is only a matter of the details. It WILL be in the new CBA.  How will that impact teams? or better yet how can some teams leverage this to their advantage? Lets assume a $100M floor for simplicity sake.
    This would mean there is a TON of money that will HAVE to be spent.  If you MUST spend it, you can do 1 of 3 things. #1 spend big on top tier players. Of course there are relatively few top tier players left to spend money on.  #2 overpay average players, which is just silly. #3 take on bad contracts.
     
    Lets take a look at a strategy behind #3.  First lets identify teams that A) already have very high salaries which could be looking for some relief. B.) Still want to add a big piece or two, and C) have underperforming big salaries they want to dump. D) are in "Win Now" mode. The strategy here is to spend the money you are forced to by taking on bad contracts in exchange for quality prospects. Here are 3 of the top 4 teams in committed salaries for 2021. Each of these teams meet this criteria.
    Mets, Dodgers, Padres.
     
    Mets:
    The Mets currently sit at $235M and they still want to add more. They have a bad contract in Robinson Cano. $24M for '21 & '22. They also have some decent young players or prospects I would take a flier on. Would the Mets give up both Dom Smith & Thomas Szapucki for a team to take Cano's salary off the books? You have to spend the money anyways. Dom Smith is a Gold Glove 1B who is stuck behind Alonso. We have Sano, and hopefully he has a great offseason and comes into camp down 40 pounds like Vlad Guererro, but if he doesn't, Smith would be a great long term piece at 1B, and Szapucki would be another MLB ready arm with injury history, and we have enough of those, but he could also be a great buy low candidate.
    Dodgers:
    Dodgers are currently at $213M and still want to bring back Kershaw, and need to replace Seager at SS.  Nobody will touch Bauer, but what about taking on the final year of David Price at $32M. There is not a TON I like in their system, but maybe a Ryan Pepiot, but maybe a young player like Gavin Lux.
     
    Padres:
    Here is the one that excites me the most.  Padres at $180M, but they would love to either upgrade some spots or swap out contracts. You take on BOTH Wil Myer, and Eric Hosmer.  You help SD clear $40M off the books  to free that up for them to go after bigger impact players you have to ask what would they give up? Would they give up CJ Abrams? that is a ton, and we already have plenty of SS, but having Lewis, Martin, Abrams all in the system and nearly ready could allow you to use that depth to then trade for potential ACE pitching prospects.  Would they give up Gore?  How about a trade along the lines of Max Kepler, and Brent Rooker or Trevor Larnach in exchange for either Gore or Abrams along with taking on the contracts of Myer & Hosmer?
     
    What moves would you make if there is a salary floor and the Twins are forced to spend at least another $30M without there being a lot left in FA?
     
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