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Doc Munson

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  1. Doc Munson

    Rock Paper Scissors

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins
    How a bout a quick game of Rock Paper Scissors. But this time in the form of Players, Coaches, Front Office.
    With an historic collapse liek the Twins had there is never just 1 reason for it. There are always multiple reasons. So how about a game of PCF?
    Where would apply the primary Failures?
    Not I am not including injuries in the game because a 4th option just does not fit the game. Plus depending on the injury it could fall into any of the current 3.
    1) Offense:
    Down the stretch our offense completely disappeared. Truth be told, we were never TRULY that good of an offense.  During our stretches of being the "explosive offense" the Twins pretended to be tended to come against stretches against bad to mediocre teams, when we moved onto better teams we tended to revert back to an underperforming offense. but we are focusing here on the collapse portion of the season, and while were were a top 10 run scoring offense overall, during this stretch of futility we were only better than the White Sox and Angels. who COMBINED for 102 wins.
    Players: You could say the Twins were "tired"  or injured, btu that is an excuse, Lewis MASSIVE slump to end the year you could tell he was just all upper arm swing which indicates tiredness, But overall just didnt produce. Correa and Buxton were missing for a portion of the collapse, and both it well when they returned but we still struggled. How much of a collective struggle is "team approach" I.E. coaching? and how much is on players not performing? There was just too much bad baserunning, bad situational hitting, and bad approaches down the stretch that must go on the players on the field.
    Coaches: This could just be philisophical differences, as opposed to perceived incompetence, but I HATE the amount of early pinch hitting Baldelli does. And while I have never coached above College ball  (ok never above high school or even T ball... but the "never above College" still is technically accurate) I think you have to give your players the opportunities to hit same side pitching. take opportunities during the year with games not on the line. leave them in sometimes. Do SOMETHING to make yourself not so reliable on having to switch out hitters. I cna recal a MINIMUM of at least 5 games wher Baldelli pinch hit for LH hitters in the 5th inning against teams that had only ONE LH pitcher in the bullpen. this means if you left your LH in the game in the 5th inning, you know for a fact they will face oly RH hitters the rest of the game. If my memory is correct we ended losing them all. Not that we were guaranteed to win them, but that is not putting your team in the best position to win.
    Front Office: While our offense was not the big priority, it was clear it was not the overall strength they sold it to be going into the season. Everyone had to know Correa and Buxton would be missing time again. While you couldn't anticipate the early injury to Lewis, he had never put together a full healthy season. While we had an abundance of "potential" we went into season with unproven over a full season Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Kirilloff. Julien was coming off a good year but how many players repeat succesful rookie campaigns?  Farmer is what he is (hint not a major league regular). Would Kepler be the 2nd half Kepler from last year? or what he had been for most of his career? oh yeah and Kepler, Wallner, Larnach all seem to have something I just cant put my finger on when it comes to building out a roster... Oh yeah ALL LH hitting OF.  What is a coach supposed to do there? especially one who relies on analytics to mix and match?  Margot was not a win, Santans though you have to give FO credit. But overall what else would a FO do here? you have to trust/hope in who you had. and where were realistic better options position wise?
    RESULT:  ROCK... PAPER.. SCISORS... PLAYERS!!     with coaching a close 2nd.  and I could actually go coaching... after all can you blame players for simply playing to who the level they actually are? 
    2) PITCHING
    I am lumping the entirety of pitching into one group as starters and relievers impact each other.
    Players: Joe Ryan's injury here obviously had an impact. It does not seem to be an injury that coudl have been easily predicted (which would put on Front Office) or through the result of poor handling (which would have been put on coaching) so it comes in here.  Ober was solid, Lopez was not spectacular but solid, and better down the stretch than early. Beyond those two in the roation, SWR performed admirably but tired down teh stretch, we relied on too many young starters who did not have the experience and who were approaching or exceeding historical innings maxes. the Bullpen had some inconsistency especially with Duran, most other failures were just relievers who were not very good overall.  I cannot place the blame on young pitchers with no experience hitting their innigns maxes, or poor performances from players who simply arent that great,  so hint... we may not have a winner here.
     
    Coaches: Now it gets juicier. AT least in my opinion. Personally I believe Baldelli did a HORRIBLE job of managing the staff. From pulling pitchers way too soon who were cruising, to using Duran in a number of situations where he had proven himself to struggle (yes any good pitcher shoudl be able to pitch in any situation, but if you as coach know they struggle more in certain situations you just do not put them in those situations). Weirdly the Twins are middle of the pack (14th) in innings pitched by pitchers, so does it just FEEL like he pulls pitchers early??? and maybe the horrible blow ups just shine more light than it deserves. but it FEELS like Baldelli horribly mismanaged this staff. so I am sticking with it.
    Front Office: SO going into the offseason we let Sonny Gray go, we let Maeda go. and we replaced with... ???  Again I wouldnt have anticipated Joe Ryan's injury but we went into the season with Ryan, Ober, Lopez as a top 3. with little other experience filling out the back end.  So to START the season we had either inexperience or known injury history in the back end,  SWR, PAddack, Disclafina, Varland.  and ended up relying on inexpereinced youngsters hitting their innigns maxes in Fest and Matthews. SO we did not set up the rotation for success out the gate (which has an impact on the collapse we are specifically grading). At the deadline we did virtaully nothing and almost LITERALLY nothing.  Total pitching moves by this Front Office:  6 total external moves. spending a total of $9M resulting in 4 DFA  and 2 DNP.
    RESULT: ROCK... PAPER... SCISSORS... FRONT OFFICE!!  (again with pitching a close second)
     
    To paraphrase a well used saying...  "It takes teamwork to make the dream nightmare work"  and if you average the scores... at least mine you get:
    Players: 1 offense and 3 pitching == 2 average
    Coaches 2 offense and 2 pitching = 2 average
    Front Office   3 offense and 1 pitching = 2 average.
    Overall though I would put the blame game as   #1 Front Office  #2 (close) coaching  and #3 Players.
     
    Thoughts? and who comes out in your "Rock Paper Scissors"?
     
     
  3. Doc Munson
    Barring a total collapse the Twins are positioned well to make the playoffs. Even with the injuries and lack of moves.  While not looking ahead to next year, this year and our relative success has me thinking about the sustainability. So while not looking AHEAD to next year, I am looking AT next year. How or where we will be able to make some tweeks to keep up with the Royals.  This was initially going to be a very hopeful task. Instead it was a bti sobering. :(
    WE have a strong potential core.
    Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Wallner, Larnach on the position end of things and Ryan Assuming healthy for next year, Ober and Lopez also the developing SWR on the mound and Jax, Duran, Alcala in the pen.
    We will be having some salaries coming off the books in Kepler $10M, Farmer $6M Margot and Disclafini mean another $8M I cant imagine Santana being back next year  so his $5M+ should be moved. Assuming continued financial constraint, and assuming even being able to keep current salary (and there is risk of having to cut even more next year).
    At least this is a good $30M we can re-allocate to help improve the solid core. right?  Well Maybe not so much.
    * Injury riddled Correa goes from $33 to $37M that takes us down to $26M avaiable to remain the same.
    Injury riddled Byron Buxton stay about the same at $15M guaranteed. so that is good.
    Pablo Lopez's salary jumps $13.5M next year so that gives leaves $12.5M
    Even Chris Paddack locks in a $5M raise bringing potential available FA funds to $7.5M. and this will go up to maybe just over $10M with Kirilloff and others not being brought back.  SO with roughly $10M to spend, where will the needs be and how can we fill them?
    OF: OF should be relatively set, even with departure of Kepler. Wallner steps right in there. Buxton should be "primary CF" and we can continue with Castro/Martin as back up if needed.  LF could still be Larnach as in house, with possibility of E Rod beign a mid season promotion.
     
    IF: IF has lots of uncertainty, but not necessarily WHo will be playing, but WHERE they will be playing. Will Lewis be 3B? 2B? Correa, assuming health is locked into SS (or could a mid/late career change to 3B be in the works to take ease off feet and slide Lewis/Lee to SS??) Speaking of Lee he will be in there somewhere, and Miranda can be 1B/3B. Not to mention the potential of Julien shoudl he get things back together.  All that being said, no clue WHERE they will all be playing , but we definitely have the players to field an IF.
    C: assumng Jeffers returns, and we have Vazques still on the books for $10M that will be impossible to move. SO status quo there.
    That means position player wise, even if we WANTED to improve significantly... or even marginally, there really isn't much room.
    Starting Pitching: AS mentioned above assuming the return and health of Ryan, Ober, Lopez, SWR that is  a quality top 4. Can Festa or Zebby prove capable of the #5 spot? Indications are there may not be a HUGE need for SIGNIFICANT upgrade to rotation.
    BULLPEN: if we keep a core of Jax, Alcala, Duran in place, even a respectable Cole Sands.  and the Twins philosophy of "year to year" bullpen arms. where they believe Bullpen success is very inconsistent year over year, then we would be looking at not needing/spending much money there.  with a potential solid rotation, then a Varland can move to BP.
    SO overall, while somewhat frustrating we have not added to a successful team. If you liek what you see this year, expect more of the same next year, if you DONT like what you see this year, expect more of the same next year.
    I say we follow the Wolves lead and RUN IT BACK!!!
    The onyl way to make significant changes is trying to trade Correa. That would be a cash dump move after continued years of missing big chunks of time and would get little in return unless we eat money which woudl go against our mantra. We have the organizational depth to handle moving correa. But if we did I would want to reinvest that $ into other quality players and we will just do it to save money. so lets run it back.
     
    The ONE move I would make...  take our $10-12M (or so) we would have available. and make a run run at a 3 year guaranteed deal for Justin Verlander. a 3 year $36M deal. at his age and recent durability, I am not sure he gets more than that. Heck I would even go 3 year $45M to make it an even $15M. Verlander really wants 300 wins. It is a risk, but a risk worth taking. if he doesn't pitch, it is a 3 year hit. (heck we would have taken equal hits on the likes of Paddack), but if he is healthy in addition to being a still relatively quality arm, he would be a draw, especially as he approaches win #300.  PLUS what a better mentor for the likes of Ober, Ryan, Festa, SWB, and other young pitchers.
    SO in long summation. For good or for bad, the Twins we have now will be the EXACT same team we have next year. Which may not be a bad thing.
     
  4. Doc Munson

    Is Mason Miller getable?

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadlne
    Twins could obviously use a weapon like Miller in the bullpen. His rookie scale contract and controllable years make him affordable (financially) for the Twins. An Elite bullpen arm is a luxury teams not in contention now or the foreseeable future do not really need. All of this adds up to a perfect match for the Twins to go big, but will they?
    The twins have the propsects to get it done: Twins have some redundancies in a couple areas. with overlapping timelines.
    First lets look forward a bit.
    CF: assuming Buxton can reman even relatively healthy over even the next 2 years, which should be the window for when Jenkins/Rodriguez should be ready to man CF. Then that makes one of them "expendable" along with Gabriel Gonzalez.
    RF: We have Kepler this year then he is off the books. Twins could trade him to move salary, btu that would be kinda cruel, but his salary clears next year. Could he return on a lower deal? possibly... if he wants to be a Twins lifer. But if we assume Twins dont trade Wallner at this deadline, then he could be heir apparent in RF.
    LF: larnach?? if not traded? Castro? Martin? someone else moving forward next year, possibly a Keaschall?  Being potentially weak here should nto prevent us from trading from our young OF depth.
    INFIELD:
    Again assuming health a potential IF of Lewis 3B  Correa SS  Lee 2B Miranda 1B would be very solid over the next 6-10 years (minus Correa)
    That opens up trade potential for Julien, 
    So with just a cursory review some potential trade assets the Twins have to send to a rebuilding As team are:
    Julien, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Larnach.
    You usually also nee to give up something to get something in the pitching department, so if we have to give up a high end pitcher with potential to get a PROVEN high end MLB arm then we have to.
    Zebby  seems to be a fast riser, can we live without him? Charlee Soto? - we have given up recent highly drafting pitching in the past (Chase Petty).
    And how about making a bigger combo deal to help balance our lineup L/R.
    Say we give up Zebby, Soto, Julien, Rodriguez (could try it with Gonzalez first), and Larnach for Miller and bring back Rooker?
    Larnach decent, but not a corner stone player.  the Rooker/Larnach swap is nto only an offensive upgrade but balances lineup, Rodriguez/Gonzalez is a top prospect but potentially blocked,  Julien, at this point doesnt seem to be much room for going forward.  Zebby & Soto both have potential, but how many young pitchers with potential actually live up to their potential? and we would be getting a proven arm, for this year and going forward.
    Would the Twins give that much up? and woul the As take that in return for BOTH Miller/Rooker? or coudl they get more in 2 separate trades?
  5. Doc Munson

    Send Kirilloff to the 60 day IL?

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Moves
    The Twins are putting Miranda on the IL. and calling up Diego Castillo to take his spot on teh 40 man. Since Diego is not currently on the 40 man roster there needs to be a corresponding move.
    What do the Twins do?
    the Twins COULD do something with a pitcher, but lets assume they stay position player... here are the positions players on the 40 man. and remember this is not just sending someone down, it is risk losing the player to another team.
    NA means there is no way that player gets designated.
    Wallner - NA    Emmanuel Rodriguez - NA  Austin Martin - NA Trevor Larnach - NA Max Kepler - NA Byron Buxton - NA  Yunior Severino - NA  Carlos Santana - NA   Jose Miranda - NA  Royce Lewis - NA Brooks Lee - NA  Eduard Julien - NA Carlos Correa - NA Willi Castro - NA Ryan Jeffers - NA.
    That leaves the following...
    Vazquez - he is a "clubhouse guy" which means the Twins will keep him even though he is not performing well. even so the Twins would never eat that contract. if they wanted to get rid of him they would trade hm for anything they can get, a bag of used BP balls to move the contract before DFA him.
    Camargo - Could be an option, but I doubt it as there really isn't another "next in line catcher" for the Twins. and would you risk losing him for a short call up?
    Farmer - Already on the IL, but not really a candidate to move him to the 60 day. Might not be a bad move, but there would clearly be a grievance if this was done as his injury does not necessitate a 60 day stint. Twins have proven they want to keep him so wont be DFA'd
    Martin... could the oblique legitimately cause a 60 day IL transfer? I doubt it, 
     
    That leaves just Kirilloff.  He has already been o the IL since 6/13 so already 30 days in.  with no real update on his condition, this is a CLEAR move.  Plus the Twins are getting annoyed with him. Not annoyed enough to straight up DFA him  but they would love to get ANY sort of trade value out of him.  putting him on the 60 day IL woudl prevent the option of being able to trade him by the deadline. so that is not SUPER good.  At this point though with 2 weeks left til the trade deadline, and Kirilloff nowhere near a return, it kind of makes that point moot.
     
    To me the Twins 2 options are...
     
    Option #1   move Kirilloff to the 60 day IL
    Option #2  just play short.  Making the move retroactive to Friday and after todays game, we are on break, and would only miss the 2 Brewers games coming out of the break (assuming healthy).
    Option #3 is nto really an option if they are indeed looking at Diego Castillo.... why not bring up Julien?
    How would you clear a spot on the 40 man in this situation?
     
     
  6. Doc Munson

    Farmer Kepler out; Wallner Lee in

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
    The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
    DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
    While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
    While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
     
    But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.
  7. Doc Munson
    SO yet again  Baldelli pinch hits  for the lead off batter and the#2 batter in the 5th inning!!!????
     
    you have your starting lineup for 4 out of 9 innings.
    you pinch hit a guy hitting under .200 and an OPS under .500 for your leadoff guy, and you pinch  another guy under .200 BA and under .500 OPS for a guy hitting .354 &.928!!
     
    Thsi SHi....  This CRA....  This STUFF  has to stop!!!!
  8. Doc Munson
    OK, first off, yes I am old school.  I HATE platooning, and what I hate even more is strictly pinch hitting RH for LH, especially young players.  How the heck is a lefty gonna learn how to hit a lefty if never given the chance???  And what makes no sense to me even MORE is pinch hitting in the 6th inning or earlier!!!
    I wish there was some smart analytics guy out there who coudl run stats and prove me either right or wrong.  even if proven right I HATE managing purely by analytics.
     
    But anyone who has watched the Twins can probably guess that I am talking about the obsession with pinch hitting for Wallner.
    YES he is horrid against lefties, but is pinch hitting Manuel Margot for Wallner... IN THE 6TH INNING any better?  You cannot take just the current AB into account, you have to take into account future ABs.
    First, why would you pinch hit Margot for Wallner? Well on the surface Margot has a .281 avg a .341 OBP and .760 OPS to go along with a 109 WRC+ against lefites.
    Wallner?  oh a just touch worse at .119 avg .188 OBP and a .442 OPS to go along with an unsightly 21 WRC+.
    CLEARLY pinch hitting Margot was the right decision right????  NO!!
    This was the 6th inning, which means you are GUARANTEED to have Wallners spot come up again later in the game no matter what happens.(not to mention if it would go to extras) What are teh chances that Wallner would be facing another LHP in his next AB?  lets go ahead and put that one at 0.00%. Why??? Because Herrin is the ONLY LH reliever on the Cleveland roster!!!  SO now  you have to factor in the GUARANTEED matchup of either/both Margot and Wallner when facing RHP to determine the overall probable success rate.  but first let's go back to the Pinch hitting scenario in the 6th.
    Wallner is pinch hit for with 2 outs and nobody on.  Now the expected Probability of scoring a run with 2 outs an nobody on is 4.48% (just did a Google).  So even if Wallner strikeouts out there, there is still a 95% probability that we would score the same amount of runs leaving Wallner in there as we would when pinch hitting Margot.  So here is the first analytic data point showing it was a HORRIBLE (yet sadly predictable) move. Now if there was a runner in scoring position, and all we needed was a single, or even extend the inning with a walk, then it could make sense, as Margot's average is 162 points higher than Wallners against lefties.  But again we did not, we needed either a HR, or multiple productive plate appearances in a row to score.  again only 4.48% scoring probability.
    SO we are at neutral AT BEST for that pinch hitting situation in a vacuum, now lets take into account at least one (possibly more should the possibility of extra innings come in to play).
    What are each of their numbers against RHP in their careers?
    Margot = .244 avg  .294 OBP .663 OPS and a 81 WRC+.   SO not overly good.
    Wallner = .274 avg  .401 OBP  .935 OPS  with a 161 WRC+.  Basically pretty darn good!!!
    Of course since we would not know at the time what the situation of the next AB is (except we ae guaranteed a RHP) so we cannot say what would be needed the most, but by ANY metric, Wallner is the CLEAR preferred batter!!!
    need a base hit? Wallner 30 points higher.   Need a walk? Wallner 107 points higher OBP. Need an extra base hit? Wallner 272 point higher OPS.
    in actuality (which you cant take later results into consideration when making a decision, but as it turns out it would have been even MORE advantageous to have had Wallner in in the 8th).
    That next AB turned out to be with Correa on 2nd and 1 out..  (as it turns out a runner on 2nd with 1 out you score at least 1 run  41.4% ot the time so you would have had a better chance to get the better probability of scoring a run with Wallner than Margot, but again that is in retrospect).
     
    Bottom line... HORRIBLE move to pinch hit Manuel Margot for Wallner in the 6th inning with 2 out and nobody on against a team that has no other LHP to use against us in later innings.
     
    It is not only the wrong managerial decision, but it is painfully horrible baseball to watch.
     
    Now I will go back to yelling at clouds and shooing kids off my lawn.
  9. Doc Munson
    As has been mentioned in previous posts, the Marlins desperately want... NEED... to move salary. The only thing that had prevented the Marlins from selling off pitching prior to the start f the season was the fact that they made the playoffs last year. How would that look? dismantling the strength of a team on the heels of a playoff appearance? It was abundantly clear that with the Braves being the Braves, and Philly improving, that at best Miami was a third place team and most likely out of the playoff chase.
    Early on I figured about 1 month the front office would realize they are not a playoff team. Could this realization come after just 8 games???  Starting 0-8 should help clarify their true standing this year.
    The Twins should be in position just 6 games into the season to make a big move.
    Call up Miami, NOW, find out what it would take to get both Jesus Luzardo and Alcantara.
    Luzardo immediately upgrades our rotation this year, and the pairing of Luzardo and Alcantara next year with Pablo, Ryan, and that leaves pitchers like Ober and Paddack as #5 starters.
    While this move is 100% focused on improving our roster this year, it sets us up incredibly well next year and beyond.
    With both pitchers on board next year the Twins would have the following potential starters under team control...
    Alcantara through 2027
    Luzardo  through 2026
    Pablo through 2027
    Ryan through 2027
    Ober through2027
    Paddack  just through next year
    that's a solid 6 deep And we haven't even spoken about the young arms who should be ready to fill in gaps such as...
    Varland, Festa, Raya, Soto,  and others
    So what would it take? and would it be worth it?  It will take some top tier talent for sure. If Lewis had not been injured... AGAIN, I would suggest it would be worth moving Lee. Now he has even more long term value for Twins if Lewis is Buxton Jr.
    How about Emmanual Rodriguez to headline a deal? If Jenkins can stay in CF long term, then that makes Rodriguez a bit more expendable.  would a package of either Rodriguez or Gonzalez, along with something like Danny De Andrade, Yunior Severino, and a top 20 Twins pitching prospect get a deal done?
    If not what should the Twins give up for that pair of starters If...WHEN Miami makes them available?
  10. Doc Munson
    The Twins and Dodgers have done a few trades over the past few years, including most recently the trade for Margot.  Of course the one that comes to mind that really benefitted both clubs was the Kenta Maeda trade that brought Graterol to the Dodgers.
    Could/should the Twins Dodgers look to make another potential win/win trade?
    Take away both teams potential needs for starting pitching.  Dodgers due to injuries, and Twins due to an unproven rotation, and there seems to be a perfect matchup here for a trade.
    The Twins thought they "solved" their RH OF issue by trading for Margot, but really that was a dud from the get go. Margot was not significantly better than anyone on the Twins roster or in the Twins system.
    There is another player would completely fit, and we will get to that name shortly, but first the Dodgers "need".
    the Dodgers love Gavin Lux's bat, so much so that they have moved him to 2B and have moved Mookie Betts once again. This time to SS.  Now Betts very well may make the transition to SS without any issues and not risk injury or any negative impact to his offense, but do you REALLY want to risk that?? For a unproven bat, even with his potential? Plus the kid is already 26.
    I would suggest that the Dodgers may be open to acquiring a SS upgrade, even if it means jettisoning Lux.   HMMMM, what team that we all know and love seems to have a middle infield glut?
    I COULD say the Twins should involve Correa in a trade if the Twins truly are concerned about their finances, but who wants to have such a major shakeup of a potential contending roster this close to the start of the season? Not to mention I actually like Correa on this team.
    Correa then is set at SS.
    Lewis is not going anywhere, an he is set at 3B.
    Julien is presumably set at 2B (or even a slide to 1B for future infield set up), and he is purely a 2B, Dodgers would  need a SS in this scenario.
    That leaves Brooks Lee as a potential option to be moved. Yes, I love Lee as much as the next person, and I think he COULD be a long time Twins great. And there are options fo rhim to get AB's this year, as well as starting next year if we do move Julien to 1B, but there is a bat I love in the Dodgers system, one that fits our needs.
    I say we reach out to the Dodgers, offer the Dodgers Brooks Lee in exchange for Adny Pages (plus another player such as Maddux Burns who has a high upside arm).
    Pages is near MLB ready, if not MLB ready right now, the only reason he has not made debut yet, was a shoulder injury he suffered last year. which he has shown he is recovered from. The kid has massive power, the most power in the Dodgers system, he has a cannon of an arm equal to, if not better than Wallner, decent to above average speed. Most of all, he is a right handed hitting outfielder.  HE checks every box the Twins need to compliment the lineup, PLUS he is young and can be a core piece in the future, and is ready right now.
    Pages would be the PERFECT platoon with Wallner in 2024, and then transition next year to an OF of Pages, Buxton, Wallner. (Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez are all AT LEAST 1 year away). Both have huge power, and hit opposite pitching well. both have huge arms.
    and if we get a pitcher liek Maddux Bruns as well (Dodgers #16 overall) with a big armed lefty with tons of potential (albeit control issues).
     
    A trade with Dodgers centered around Lee and Pages coudl be another one of those (although tougher to swallow) win/win trades.
     
     
     
     
     
  11. Doc Munson

    Twins in Position to sign Jordan MOntgomery

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    In a previous post I had posited that the Twins should not make any moves for pitchers unless thay HAD to.  There is no NEED for a Postseason Starter until/if you make the postseason, os hang onto trade chips until you need to cash them.
    Signing a FA however is a different story, even though a quality signing would necessitate dumping some salary, and that is different than trading young prospects for quality pitching..
    I wouldn't touch Blake Snell. even though he has 2 Cy Youngs, he just doesnt go deep enough into games (although that would actually make him a perfect fit for our philosophy).
     
    JOrdan Montgomery would be a great cherry on the top of this offseason..  Currently the Twins project to be at roughly $123M for the season.  There has been "talk" of up to $140M on the budget with a redone TV deal in place. While that is still $20M below last years payroll, it still leaves $17M on the table.
    Montgomery is apparetly looking for something bigger than teh Aaron Nola deal which was 7 years $172M. or basically $25M per season..
     
    at 31 years old you would be buying the back half of his 30's as a premium, that being said he has been for the most part healthy over the last 3-4 years, and really in another 5 years an average starter will cost darn near $25M. SO I would say that something around a Nola deal would not be a huge overspend. There is however another option, a short term higher AAV with opt outs, similar to the Initial Carlos Correa deal.
     
    You sell him on Sonny Gray just signing a 3 year $75M at 3 years his senior after pitching with this team. A full year with 1 team (which he hasn't had in 3 years) pitching in a weak division, with the potential offense the Twins have, and he is a potential 20 game winner if he pitches to his recent season averages of right around 3.00 ball.  Lets throw a 3 year $90M deal on the table with opt outs after each year, Include a 4th year $20M option with a $10M buyout to allow him to hit the $100M mark.  
    If we go there, we would need to clear about $13M from the payroll stay within the $140M top end payroll projections.
    This could be done easily. with ANY combination of moves.
    The usual suspects:
    1) Kyle Farmer has $6.25M on the books. That is a decent amount for a utility infielder, even if he is a decent quality. We still have some depth to replace him even with trading Gordon/Polanco.
    2) MAx Kepler has $10M on the books.  while losing his defense we have Larnach, Kirilloff (if Santana is primary 1B), plus Castro an possibly Martin who cold claim a spot. That being said while Max could garner the most in trade, I would hate to see him go (coming from the guy who wanted a bag of used BP balls for him last year!!)
    3) Christian Vasquez also has $10M on the books. While a good clubhouse guy, Jeffers deserves at least 60% of the ABs from catcher if not more. and $10M for a back up catcher is just irresponsible for a team claiming to have budgetary concerns.
    Moving JUST TWO... ANY combination of two from above clears enough to bring in Montgomery.
    In other words, ask yourself this...  If Montgomery were a trade candidate and he was making $90M over the next 3 years, and his team offered you him for Kepler an vasquez, would ANYONE say no???  NOPE.
    After a succesful year 1 with the Twins, and being a Boras client, he would most likely opt out of the remaining 2 years, at which point the Twins can designate him with a QO and get draft pick compensation.  And heck, he would be great trade bait in the off chance the Twins arent in contention.
     
    Either way you cut it, a short term higher AAV deal, or a longer term deal closer to $25M he would/could be an affordable add. and all the Twins would need to give up is trading away redundant or overpaid pieces and ask for little in return.
     
  12. Doc Munson

    Twins best move?... sit and wait

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
    The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
    The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
    All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
    Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
    The time and the team could come early.
    Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
    How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
     
    Until then, simply carry on.
     
     
  13. Doc Munson
    I will spare everyone my rambling nonsensical, fantastical prognostications.  Just a simple question...
    the Twins need to make 2 roster moves to clear space on the 40 man roster.
    Who ya got?  Who would YOU move? and who do you think THEY will move?
     
    40-Man Roster | Minnesota Twins (mlb.com)
     
    I am not sure if I have attached the link to the current 40 man roster correctly, as I have never tried to do a link before,  but what are your thoughts?
     
    Mine you ask?
    For once I have no clue what they would do and more importantly no clue what I would do. I am nto educated on all of our releivers, but I would assuem we either signed them or traded for them for a reason. but we cannot move TWO position players, so one relief pitcher has to get DFA'd or traded.
    As far as position players go...
    Trading Kepler seems like a move, but even I am starting to think might not be a bad idea to keep him around, and i think his value will only increase as we get closer to season, or in season, and neither Santana, nor the pitcher we signed is worth trading low on Kepler. Sadly I think I see an od man out in Gordon. I dotn see us moving Castro, Bubba Thompson has a specialized skillset, I I could see us cuttign bait of Larnach as well though.  IF we could get a marginal prospect for Larnach he would make sense (although I am still a fan of his)
    Bottom line ilooking at IF it is not a starter, Could trade Farmer, but after moving Polanco he seems a bit more secured.. Martin is listed as an IF, and he has too much versatility and cheap. and Miranda and Severino still have the upside, the dreaded "potential". SO we move an OF.
    Not Buxton, Not Wallner, not Castro, not Martin (see also IF) nto Kirilloff (who is now listed as OF and if that is accurate that makes Larnach even MORE disposable), Possibly Kepler, but again not the best time to trade out of necesity.. No tRodriguez and not Thompson.
     
    That leaves Larnach and Gordon as the only options.
     
    But there I broke my promise and rambled...
     
    WHo do YOU see gettign moved?
  14. Doc Munson

    Who says no? Miami Marlins Edition

    By Doc Munson,


    Hot Stove
    While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on.  A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here.
    And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!"
    The Twins have some high  quality prospects on the position side.  Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects.
     
    In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no?
    Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins.
    Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year?  chances are probably not.  Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year?  more than likely.  Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk.  This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year.
     
    The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect.
    SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez,   for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara,   who says no, Twins or Marlins?
  15. Doc Munson

    More Crazy Trade Ideas

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    From the "zig when other people zag " department.  Here are a few trades/moves I would love to see.. With most of my posts of course would never happen, and in fact would probably be HORRIBLE moves in general.  haha!!!
    1) Yes I am still chasing Miami Stanton vs Yankee Stanton, but I would love to see Giancarlo on this roster. He fits perfectly with our "strike out all you want as long as you hit 35 HR" philosophy.  he strikes out 1/3 of the time and has a batting average of .200 over the last 2 years.  Is it too much of a stretch to say "just 3 years ago..."?  Well, Just three years ago in in the 2012 season, he hit .273 slugged at an .870 OPS clip equating to a 3+ WAR. Yes he has a full no trade, Yes he makes WAY more than his current output warrants, but he is getting "in the best shape of his career" this offseason, that is exciting!!!   hehe.   the ZIGZAO quotient is off the charts here, as we are looking to slash payroll, not add to it. and we have some decent young players who would otherwise fill the OF/DH role. The Yankees don't care about payroll, or luxury tax concerns, but I am sure they wouldn't mid too much moving his contract all the same.  Lets take a short term hit for a long term gain!!  The Yankees just moved a ton of their top pitching prospects for Soto, but there is still some quality to be had.  We say we will send them Trevor Larnach or Max Kepler in exchange for Stanton, and in exchange for us taking on 100% of his contract for 2023 & 2024, giving Yankees some space to dip below the tax and reset penalty (and have them on the hook for 2025 & 2026). This Allows the Twins some long term payroll flexibility.. and increases his "re-trade value" as now he will only cost the newly acquiring team at most $64M over 4 years or an AAV of $16M. in exchange for this we get back Luis Gil (former Twin prospect with big arm coming back from injury) and young prospect Brando Mayea who has INSANE speed!! 
    Twins won't take on $, Stanton wont waive no trade, but would be fun to get Stanton's RH bat in the lineup as LF/DH.
    2) Luis Arraez 2.0:   How about giving the ol' Miami Marlins a call.  there was a great trade for both clubs last year. Twins got an Ace while Miami got a batting champ. Lets start with our desire for pitching. There were rumors Miami may listen on Alcantara due to impending big money coming his way. Now he is out for 2024 for TJ surgery. while trying to make a move for Alcantara could be good long term wouldn't do anything for 2024, Id still trade for him, and the Twins have a history of paying pitchers to rehab TJ. There have been rumbling so Edward Cabrera being available, and being another near break out pitching star. There is Jesus Luzardo, who was once a top pitching prospect in Dodgers system, and depending on who you talk to was either coveted, or hated by Twins FO during potential trade with Dodgers, either way he is a mid 3 ERA strike out pitcher just coming into his own at 26. finally a youngster like Minnesota's own Max Meyer could be an intriguing get. super high potential but injury history. ANY of the above would be great gets for the Twins, and each of them in their own rights has the potential to turn into an ace just like Lopez did.  SO who is the Arraez we give up in exchange?  well one of Miami's biggest needs is a SS. and well, just like moving Arraez hurt, getting a top shelf pitcher again will sting a bit. Shortstop we seem pretty stacked. Middle infield overall. No I do not believe Polanco comes into play here, But if Correa is here for the long haul, and we still have Lewis at 3B, and Juline at 2B, Where exactly will Brooks Lee get his ABs? We already traded our #1 pick from 2021 (Chase Petty) why not go ahead and move our #1 pick from 2022? Brooks Lee could be a star, and we are 1 injury away from him being called up, BUT it takes quality to get quality..
    3) Speaking of that Chase Petty and revisiting past trade partners, How about revisiting the "Twincinatti" connection. after sending off Petty to Cinci for Gray, and then Steer and Encarnacion Strand for Mahle (HORRIBLE trade) why not reach back out see what we can bring back from Cinci? Their biggest need is pitching, and we aren't in great shape to send any out, but they do have potential areas to upgrade in the 1B/DH/LF where their depth chart currently has Steer as starter at 1B & LF, and E-Strand as DH and backup 1B,  Could we entice Cinci with Kepler and Kirilloff, and even throwing in low A prospect to get Chase Petty back? Petty doesn't seem to have the same high projection as when drafted, but should still be a solid #2 in the future. This wouldn't improve us right away this year, but would position us nicely in the future getting Petty back. and having Wallner replace Kepler and potential of Miranda back at 1B to replace Kirilloff, we would not be losing a whole lot.  PLUS, in order to replace Kirilloff we could also...
    4) Go get the OTHER player I have been pining for for years.  Dom Smith could be had relatively cheaply via trade.  Gold Glove type defense. He may not strike out as much as we would liek our hitters to, as he only strikes out at a 17% clip, but he can still be a great presence on this team. He has the natural leadership of a Boomstick. and good for the Twins he is cheap.
    No these will not happen, and yes they may range from "dang you are dumb!!  to "that is just pointless"  or somewhere in between coming in as "redumbdant".   BUT dang that would be Frankenstein Funhouse to see all four happen!!
    REAL trade scenarios come out next week!!
  16. Doc Munson

    New Rules... Much ado about nothing

    By Doc Munson,


    Hot Stove
    Just reviewing some of the new rules being implemented in 2024. and a couple of them seem to be pointless.  Yes, I do actually get the Irony of me spending time talking about a rule change i know will have zero impact. 
    I first have to also admit, that I am sure even rules chances focused on the speed of the game will not "ruin the game" as I had previously whined about prior to the pitch clock. OF course I think there are more "natural" ways to speed up the game, but really the pitch clock was a huge success and had minimal, if any impact on the enjoyment of the game in a negative way.
    But lets review new changes. and give them a 1-10 score on impacting the desired outcome
     
    1) pitch clock going from 20 seconds to 18 seconds with a runner on base.  OK i get it there was no impact in adding the clock to begin with, so lets whittle it down a touch. Basically trying to tweak it until you hit the inflection point.  BUT dropping from 20 to 18 seconds when the average when MLB data shows that on average pitchers delivered the ball with 7.3 seconds left when runners were on base just doesn't seem like there will be much of an impact on the pace of games.  If they were delivering with less than 2 seconds left, then yes that would impact the pace.  IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY =  0  ok maybe a 1
    2) Dead Ball clock usage. last year in dead ball situation, the pitch clock did not start until the pitcher took the mound, this year it will start when the pitcher is given a new ball and play is ready to be resumed. I THINK this could have a impact on pace of the game. But I am not sure really how/when "play is ready to be resumed" is determined. SO I cannot answer that. BUT  I could imagine that many pitchers last year took that dead ball time as a bit of a breather and took a few seconds to wait to get on the mound before the pitch clock was reset. So even a 2-3 second savings for each dead ball situation could have a BIG impact on the pace of a game.  IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 9
    3) clock resetting to 2 minutes instead of 2:15 on pitching changes, at least on changes where the relief pitcher is slow to enter teh game.  with 6-8 pitching changes per game, at 15 seconds per change that is not a HUGE savings, and it is during dead time so will not speed p the actual game play.  IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 2
    4) If a pitcher warms up before an inning they must now face at least 1 batter.  OK I can understand the point behind it, but really why is there a need to create this rule? MLB themselves said this happened 24 times last year. with about 2600 total games played and it happened 24 times, that less than 1% of the games, you need to make a rule about it? I am not doing a deep dive, but how many of these were then a result of a team having a quick scoring outburst the inning before, and thus nti allowing the relief pitcher time to get up and warmed up in the bullpen prior to the start of the next inning?   Personally I am in the camp of you say "the manager needs to manage around that situation", there will be numerous "player safety" people who will say it help protect the pitchers, and you cant put pitchers in who are not sufficiently warmed up. Either way with less than 1% of games experiencing this... IMAPCT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0
    5) Mound visits dropping from 5 to 4.  again like some of the others, will have minimal if any impact as teams averaged  2.3 visits per game, so again what is the point?  IMAPCT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0
    6) Widening basepath to 1B.  So now instead of making the runner run in foul territory to help prevent collisions at 1B, runners are now allowed to run inside the baseline???? This one subtly intrigues me. while the "safety of the players" people will hate this, as all it will do is increase the chances of the 1B/runner collisions,  I think this could also impact how the game is played.  Did they change this to increase bunting???  if runners can now "legally" run inside the expanded baseline, is this to incentive bunting and running inside to block the path of a throw? Could this be a rule that while allowing the runner to run inside actually also allow umpires MORE clarity on calling people OUT for interference in blatant situations? I.E. if they expand the inside of the baseline an allow runners to run there but at the same more clearly defining it so where if a player even TOUCHES the grass while running to 1st then they are out, well then THAT would make the calls significantly easier for the umps. While this is not a pace of play rule, I think this COULD have significant impact on how the game is played, depending on how it is implemented, and THIS rule I am curious to see.  If I am the coach of a team with speedsters I am bunting much more often and instructing them to run inside the baseline as the flight of the ball from the release of a RH throwing catcher throwing down the line is naturally to tail inside. This could set up throws down the 1B line turning outs or close bunt singles into doubles or triples.
     
    Will be interesting to see the intended and unintended consequences of these rules in 2024;
    Or a great big nothinburger.
     
     
     
     
  17. Doc Munson

    Final Ohtani thoughts

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    SO all two of you who occasionally stumble upon my ramblings are aware that I have posted multiple blogs regarding the actual affordability of Ohtani for the Twins. and the fallacy  of "oh but we are just a small market team, we cant afford to go big swimming in the deep end of the FA pool"  mindset. Specifically when it came to Ohtani.  In my last post I spoke about how even at 10 years $650M deal... and yes I thought I was going overboard at $65M AAV to prove a point. turns out I UNDER valued the deal. 
    Not to rehash the premise, but it is based on the Twins being one of the team who could actually afford him the easiest due to the significant money he woudl bring in. as well as the Twins being able to command strong new TV contract with Ohtani on board. The new TV contracts (and lack thereof that is giving Twins cover to lower payroll) would most likely be the same or even higher for the Twins with Ohtani on board.
    As mentioned above I underestimated the money it would take to land Ohtani, but also I apparently underestimated the revenues he would drive as well. Reports out of LA indicate that ticket prices for next year will be on average 71% higher than this past year. That means that on average, with the same attendance they will generate 71% more revenues from ticket sales.  Before getting into how this number would translate to the Twins lets do some quick math for the Dodgers. last year their home attendance was 3,837,079 and their average ticket price was $171.67. that equates to rounded up to $659M.  a 71% increase of $659M =$467M.  So $70M salary (that is mostly deferred) drives a $467M increase in ticket revenue?  hmmm, yeah I'd say that is a good deal.
    Now the Twins are not the Dodgers, but lets assume the same 71% increase in ticket prices. the Twins sold 1,974,124 tickets last year. at an average ticket price of just $40.61. a pittance compared to the Dodgers. that is $80M in ticket sales. a 71% increase would be an ADDITIONAL $57M in revenues.   BUT WAIT!!!!  The Twins did not sell out every game!!  they averaged 24,371 tickets per game in a stadium that holds 39,504.  Even if Ohtani drove ONLY an additional 10,000 per game, and at even a 50% ticket price hike,  that would translate into $168M in revenue JUST from ticket sales increase.  SO a $70M... even a $75M overpay for Ohtani would net a conservative +$86M in revenue from ticket sales. Again that is JUST ticket sales, and he already not only pays for himself, but MAKES the team money just by him being a Twin.  Of course the ticket revenues get divvied up. but you get the picture.  Add in teh increased TV contract they would be able to sign, add in teh increased away ticket sales revenue share, add in the concession from jersey sales, add in all that and more, and yes the Twins coudl EASILY have afforded Ohtani at ANY salary,
    Again this is not to say Ohtani would have signed here, but is showing how in this case, with this player, "we cant afford him" is just not valid. The Twins have actuaries that could more clearly demonstrate the value of Ohtani than just some schmuck on a computer. But he was eminently affordable.
    Oh and what else was $70M?  oh yeah, the already cleared contracts of Sonny Gray, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagan, Kenta Maeda,  plus the very replaceable (players) contracts of Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vazquez)  All of these contracts will be off the books before the start of the season (MAYBE they keep Kepler) anyways, so why not spend that $75M on Ohtani and STILL only be at last years payroll, and generate enough additional revenue (detailed above) to actually sign MORE quality Free Agents!! and STILL be more profitable.
     
    Now lets go start getting excited about getting BOTH Larnach AND Wallner in the lineup at the same time!!!  now THAT will move the turnstile!!
  18. Doc Munson

    Dream Central!!

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    so Ohtani looks to be signing with Toronto very shortly. in part because he values his privacy.  WHat better way to live a private lifestyle than with the Twins?!?!?  hehe
    Twins should do a last minute 10yr $625M offer.
     
    1) We offer the privacy he may desire.
    2) With the MSP airport we would have a major INTL airport with all of the direct flights back home he could want.
    But wait... He also wants to win!!
    1) well if he is onboard this team, we would be AL Central contenders/Champs almost annually.
    2) when looking at contending you not only have to look at current roster, but also future roster. and while we may not have a Vlad Guerrero Jr, or a Bo Bichette,  we do have Carlos Correa (yeah yeah yeah I know a number of you will trash him, but he has proven a top SS, and a playoff stud). we have a strong current and future rotation he could slide into next year  and we have a slew of young players who are just opening their own winning window in Royce Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers.... We have Byron Buxton, who is a true wildcard, COULD be a nothing burger, but also could be an MVP candidate... at this point even I have to admit better chances of the nothing burger.  BUT we have a number of quality young players 1-2 years away as well to hopefully extend window  ( OF COURSE this will be different than the Buxton/Sano window!!!  LOL)
    3) Basically we have a good to strong rotation, that will only improve when Shohei joins.  we have a good nucleus of position players from which to build and a strong group of prospects who will be arriving on an almost annual basis over the next few years.
     
     
    But we cant afford him!!! the TV contract!!
     I will not go not the whole details like I had previously about how we are actually one of the few teams who actually CAN afford him, btu will just go cliff notes version.
    1) the massive spike of season tickets, and single game tickets will offset at least half of his contract.
    2) Having Shohei on this team would actually allow us to command significantly higher new TV deal than without him, This difference could easily result in offsetting 25-50% of his annual salary.
    3) this does not even take into consideration the spike in revenue from concessions, from away game attendance which will spike, and opening up a whole country worht of advertising rights,  These alone could completely offest the cost of Ohtani.
    4) We have already shaved off $35M+ with no longer having Sonny Gray, Maeda, Gallo, Mahle.  Should we need, even if having to add prospects to move Vazquez or get nothing in return, that is another $10M.  and if we do end up moving Kepler and/or Polanco, then that is another potential  $20M shed  These moves alone cover the cost of Ohtani as well. Taylor's $4.6M being gone brings it to nearly $70M shed.
    5) we have cheap replacements for almost EVERY positional loss.  Kepler = Wallner, Polanco = Julien,  Taylor = Buxton (if he can actually play ANY CF) plus Austin Martin, also have Castro & Gordon.  Sonny Gray = Louis Varland... OK OK maybe we say Maeda - Louis Varland and while still possible downgrade, he would be serviceable #5.  Sonny Gray would actually be more like Ohtani being that replacement (albeit NEXT year)
    Positional Fit with Buxton as possible DH?
    1) if... IF Buxton can play CF that solves that issue, .. and really anyoen who says  "well yeah but where would we put him!?"  well, Ill just say no comment.
    2) if Buxton CANT go in the OF, then since Ohtani would not be pitching this year, he could easily handle 1B which would be a massive upgrade over Kirilloff/Miranda. or even OF.. he is such an "athlete" it shouldn't be a big deal taking on 1B or a corner OF spot... heck could HE be the CF protection for Buxton???
     
    SO again, even if he was NOT on the verge of signing with Toronto,  I of course do not believe this would ACTUALLY happen.  I just want everyone to know it is not because  "we cant afford him"  or any "woe is me" Twins Front Office mumbo jumbo.  it is becasue it is a CHOICE!  we have CHOSEN not to go after him.
    Yes he COULD fit financially very easily!!
    Yes he DOES fit our positional/roster needs
    Yes he/we WOULD win consistently with him on this roster
    Yes it WOULD have been fun as heck to have him on this team and see/feel all the buzz and excitement surrounding this club.
    and finally...
    Yes I know there is no point to this post because it was and will never happen, but still fun to think "what if".   hehe
     
     
  19. Doc Munson

    Should the Twins be the front runner for Ohtani??

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    First off, NO... I do not expect the Twins to be anywhere NEAR in the running for Ohtani.  He most like lt has zero interest in a midwest location, and we will not spend that much.  The question however is SHOULD we be in the running? and the answer is an unequivocal YES.
    Everyone is talking about how we will be lowering payroll, primarily because of the lack of TV contract. I would suggest that actually signing Ohtani would give the Twins leverage to sign a bigger contract.  The guy is a mega draw!  Lets play with some hypothetical numbers.
    For easy math let's throw out a $50M AAV for Ohtani.  the numbers that have floated around are that the Twins had about $50M coming in from local TV rights, and that now people are guestimating that would drop to somewhere around $25M.  I would venture to guess that EVERY sports broadcasting company would be battling it out to be the ones to be able to carry Ohtani's games, even locally. With the guaranteed increased viewership with Ohtani, you would think broadcast companies would come back in even at the same contract details as the previous one.
    Now I do not claim to know details of the previous contracts, and how lucrative they have been for the TV companies, or if they were a big reason they sought bankruptcy protection, btu I would assume that a team with Ohtani alone could draw enough. viewership... ad revenue, that at the same contract that brought the Twins $50M would be doable.
     
    Working on that assumption would be that without Ohtani we receive $25M, with Ohtani we receive $50M.  That $25M offsets the first $25M of Ohtani's salary.  That means the Twins would need to clear another $25M from the payroll in order to remain at last years levels. And again, the only, or at least main reason the Twins are cutting payroll is the lack of TV contract money.
    Looking at the Twins roster it does not take a genius how to clear that money. Kepler and Polanco together free up around $20M. There is another $22M being freed up with Sonny Gray, Kyle Farmer and Kenta Maeda not being back with us. These moves alone more than free up the remaining balance to cover Ohtani.
    Factor in other potential cost saving measures like moving Vasquez and Pagan =$13.5M, Gallo's $11M and Mahle's $7.5M coming off the books..
    The point of all of this rambling is to say that the current lack of TV contract is EXACTLY WHY the Twins should be a front runner for Ohtani.  You sign him, you overpay for himif needed. and then you leverage him to sign a much bigger TV deal than you would otherwise sign without him.
    and that is not even factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc. Ohtani's deal at ANY price will more than pay for itself, but more so if he signs with a team without a current TV deal. Teams with TV deals in place will not be able to leverage his star status for more TV money.
    Again, key word in the title here is SHOULD, I know he and they WONT.  :(
  20. Doc Munson
    I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear.  That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
     
    ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous  "OH F---"!!!!!!   How could they not see it?
    Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury?  I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up.  NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something.  Jayce then said  that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury..  How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
     
    ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing???  You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go.  Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
     
    Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
    Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
     
    I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.
  21. Doc Munson
    OK this is less of a blog and more of a thread,   BUT...
    Tonight's Saints game should be a super fun game to go to!!!
    Buxton playing 7 innings of CF.
    Plus with the Twins having a Nooner today, there is a great chance you can catch a good number of Twins players attending the game to watch and support Buxton!!
    Great photo/autograph opportunities tonight in St Paul
     
  22. Doc Munson

    Could Ohtani UCL open the door for the Twins?

    By Doc Munson,


    Twins Offseason Moves
    OK, so the obvious... or at least INITIAL knee jerk reaction is NO!!  BUT... lets take a deeper look at the affordability and the functionality of Ohtani on the Twins.
    First off the affordability.  Ohtani is incredibly affordable at ANY price. Ohtani is the unique player that almost pays for himself.  The increased revenue he brings to ANY team will offset a good chunk, if not all, of his salary.   Secondly the Twins can have some decent salaries coming of the books.
    Using 2022 salaries 
    Sonny Gray is a FA at basically $13M
    Joey Gallo's $11M will be gone
    Tyler Mahle and his $7.5M should be gone,
    Maeda is a Fa at $3M
    Other possibilities... Max Kepler (has he played his way into the $10M team option in the 2nd half???  maybe, but lets assume we move on so his $8.5 equivalent is gone) Polanco's 2024 option will not vest so that is another $7.5M, With the number of young IF in the system does this make Farmer and his $5.5M could be gone. Michael Taylor has been worth every penny but is a FA clearing $4.5M, and will Pagan be worth bringing back?? He has been hit and miss, but for the purposes of this discussion lets assume he is gone and his $3.5M is cleared.
    That is the potential of $64M coming off the books.  There will obviously be some costs associated with replacing these guys, but we have young guys ready to take their places... Julien can take the place of Polanco, Wallner can replace Kepler, lets pray Buxton can play CF next year then he replaces Taylor, if not then we can go after a young defensive prospect. Gallo can be replaced by any number os players on the cheap. I am about to throw up in my mouth here, but lets say that Chris Paddack is able to replace Maeda,  and Pagan is easily replaceable.
    This means almost all holes are filled from  within. at little to no additional costs. (would still need a top pitcher to replace Gray). Which should leave a good $50M+ available to come in at same payroll as 2022.
    Ohtani was set to CRUSH ALL records contract wise. will the potential TJ (2nd one by the way) lower this number?  I think it will a bit, he is still an MVP offensively alone, but part of his potential historic contract would be that he is also a potential Cy Young every year..  If you say a perennial offensive MVP would command Aaron Judge money, then that is $35-40M  per year.  a perennial Cy Young candidate can command $35-40M per year (Cole, Verlander, Scherzer).  Can you simply combine them into one player and add them together for a $70-80M per year number?  some seem to think you can, especially since he also provides additional roster flexibility. lets assume a 15-20% discount off of the top end $80 combined AAV. That is still $60-68M AAV. Assuming a 10 year deal that is about a 10 year lets say $650M overall deal.  Believe it or not some say that is very low. Now lets say with a potentially lost year due to TJ and subtract out $65M, but still keep it a 10 year deal, that is a 10 year $585M contract.  and then lets just say we sweeten it by $15M to incentivize him ot play in MN vs a west coast to an even $600M.
    The two questions are...  Would he take a 10 year $600M deal?  and if so should the Twins offer it? even knowing year 1 could be completely wiped out?
    The Twins CAN afford it, given the young players who look like they may actually stick this time offsetting the big contract for Ohtani, in Wallner, Lewis, Julien.  AND he will actualyl generate significant additional revenues for the team, to help offset the costs.
  23. Doc Munson

    Confessions of a confused Twins fan

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    I have to confess I do not know how to feel about the lack of movement at the deadline.  I am glad we did not give up quality prospects in order to secure average MLB talent that will not significantly impact this years results. At the same time it is very disallusioning (is that a word?) to see we did absolutely NOTHING to address the blatant issues we have with this offense.
    This disallusionment (again is that a word) makes me seriously consider how I want the rest of the year to go.  Am I not a "true" fan if a part of me wants us to collapse, IF that means that "Falvine" will be gone after this year? If it means other changes will happen? Such as Baldelli gone, Hitting coach gone, and we can install a new brand of baseball?  Is wanting short term failure for long term success mean I am not a "true fan"? 
     
    I do not expect us to win every game, I do not expect us to spend on the best players in the game, I do not expect us to lead MLB in HR and batting average, and OPS, and SB. I do not expect us to lead MLB in ERA, WHIP, CGs etc.  I onyl want us to TRY!!!!
     
    If we had a balanced lineup that we just need players to play better, then I coudl possibly understand, but we have built a flawed team, and if the FO cannot see that, and cannot seem to do things to admit a failure, fix it and move on, then it looks like we are not even trying.
    We still have an extremely LH dominated lineup, we still hit LH pitching worst in baseball, we still have the players with the highest K rate in the history of baseball. We still have mediocre palyers blocking slightly better mediocre players that do not allow us to truly evaluate talent for next year. we still have middling talent ready to be out next wave.  
    We still have Gallo on this team. Who takes away AB's from potentially both Wallner and Larnach. We still have an upcoming IF crunch to address when Lewis comes back in a  short bit.
    We still have zero apparent plan going forward into next year to compete.  Gallo gone next year (addition by subtraction) Kepler, unless he stays on fire the rest of the year will be gone, Taylor is a FA, we have no established 3B at the moment for next year. With Kiriloff's injury we still have noone we can count on all year long at 1B next year, we are still handcuffed at DH as who knows if Buxton will be able to play the field next year. Our pitching still has Gray gone as a FA, if we think we will get a draft pick with a QO forget it. nobody will sign Gray to a multi year deal at his age with draft pick compensation tied to him, so we will lose him for nothing. If you cannot see that coming as a FO guy you should not be a FO guy. Maeda will be gone, Keuchle, if we add him will not be here next year.
     
    At least the Indina made moves to improve the future while still being able to contend in this division!!
     
    So back to my original question, is it OK to hope for a collapse if it means the longterm health (or at least a better chance at long term health) of the team I love?
  24. Doc Munson
    My apologies for the repetitive posts, but as I was finishing my recent post I realized just how challenged the Twins will be shortly.  so many potential answers I am wondering what YOUR moves are?
    Of course injuries and such always come nto play to resolve most issues, but.. sometime in teh near future the Twins will have a glut of players. Notice I didnt say a glut of All-Star calibur players, but a glut of players none the less.
    OF:  There is the usual backlog of Gallo, Kepler, Wallner, Taylor, Castro (he will be IF & OF), Larnach.  That is 6 OF for 4 spots.
    IF: Here is actually where it could get MORE interesting.  with Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Farmer, Solano, Castro, and the pending returns of Polanco and Lewis  and eventually possibly Gordon, but thatis much later.  that is another  8 players for 5 maybe 6 spots
    With DH being filled exclusively by Buxton who cannot play the field that gives little flexibility to mix AB;s.  That means 14 players for about 10 spots.
     
    Put on your GM hats, how do YOU solve this?
    Mine as I mentioned in previous post.
    3 way trade with Angels and Yankees.
    Yankees get: Anthony Rendon from Angels to fill their 3B need. Trevor Larnach from the Twins. Twins need to move a LH OF. Yanks wont touch Gallo, and with Kepler heating up we will not move him, and Wallner is too valuable to give away for a smallish return. That leaves Larnach... who I love. and his LH bat plays in Yankee Stadium
    Angels get Josh Donaldson (they can immediately DFA him and still be saving money based on Rednon's contract being moved, and Yanks would require the moving of Donaldson on any deal) a pitcher from teh Twins.. Not 100% sure who I'd move maybe Kuechle? Twins also send Kyle Farmer to the Angels to take over 3B for them.
    Twins get  Jordyn Adams (#25 prospect and super fast CF at AAA) from the Angels, and Luis Gil (#14 prospect from Yankees coming back from TJ and may be ready in September but would be a great bullpen arm going forward). Plus a PTBNL from each team based on if either team makes the playoffs.
     
    This at least clear 2 spots and we have Adams for when rosters expand adn his blazing speed.  Then DFA Gallo (If the Angels wont take him in this trade).  and now you are down to 11 players for 10 spots which is quite manageable, and have CF protected for next year with Adams.
     
    What are your moves?
  25. Doc Munson

    Last Minute trade moves

    By Doc Munson,


    Deadline Moves.
    Here is a flurry of moves for the Twins in the last few hours.  
    #1 Trade for Justin Verlander.  Yes he has huge dollars attached, and yes he is old, but he is still JV!!! HE would be a great addition just by HIS performance, but the work ethic he can show our young guys and develop that mentality would be a huge boost.  WE trade Emmanuel Rodriguez. Yes he is supposedly untouchable, but how many other "can't miss prospects" have actually turned out for the Twins.  Scherzer return was "Just" Acuna, so could Verlander's be "just" Rodriguez?
    #2 OK now we have 6 starters PLUS Kuechle?? Now we can move Maeda and Gray to recoup prospects.  Lets reunite Sonny Gray in Cincinatti. we ask for either Encarnacion Strand back, or Chase Petty Back.  CES could man 3B/1B and is a RH bat.  Chase Petty wouldn't help this year but would get another arm back into our system, he has a 1.83 ERA at A+ with over a k per inning.
    #3 with Gray going to Cinci, we then send Maeda back to LA, however this time he goes to Angels in exchange for #22 prospect Jordyn Adams. Adams is another RH hitter with massive speed. He can help this year and can be protection in CF in case Buxton can't go next year. He can be the replacement future CF in place of Rodriguez.
    #4 Promote Kuechle.  This means we swap Maeda & Gray for Verlander & Keuchle and get 2 quality prospects at the same time.
    #5 With Bo Bichette getting injured last night, and us coming up on an IF log jam lets trade a Kyle Farmer to Toronto for say 17 year old Emmanuel Bonilla Toronto's #17 prospect. Farmer has been great, but with Lewis coming back, and Polanco having come back (and if we could get CES from Cinci) then he is replaceable.
     
    This allows us to continue to challenge for AL Central and at the same time get good quality future core pieces back in return
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