Parker Hageman

Following Saturday night's game, the Minnesota Twins announced that they have traded starting pitcher Kevin Correia to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash considerations. The Twins signed Correia to a two-year, $10 million contract heading into the 2013 season and, while his numbers were mediocre overall, the right-hander was able to provide innings where a significant share of the staff could not.In 54 starts, Correia finishes his Twins career with a 14-26 record and a 4.49 ERA which was a product of his high-contact/low-bat miss abilities. According to Fangraphs.com, over the past two years Correia had the highest contact rate (80%) and the lowest swinging strike percentage (5.7%). "I enjoyed every minute of it," Correia told reporters in the clubhouse after the game and being told the news. "The guys on the team, the coaching staff, everything was great. I wish we would have won more games, obviously. Besides that, I couldn't have enjoyed the time any more in Minnesota and this organization." To fill Correia's roster spot, the Twins recall left-handed pitcher, Tommy Milone, who they received in the Sam Fuld trade with Oakland. Milone will start on Monday. Click here to view the article

Why does everyone think Nick wrote this? Obviously, AJ, you have seen more of Vargas than anyone besides...well...Vargas, probably. That home run came on a 1-1 count but he was also displaying this stride/swing every count in the last two games in the Padres series, making it seem less of an in-game/in-plate appearance adjustment. I tried finding any examples of that in the MiLB.com highlights from the left side but there were not any (not to say he didn't do this, it just has more limited database). I am hoping that one of the beat writers with #access will ask Brunansky or someone about this to see if it is something that he decided to do or if the coaching staff encouraged it.

What makes this time of year somewhat tolerable for watching Minnesota Twins baseball is getting the opportunity to see players like 24-year-old Kennys Vargas develop at the major league level. Vargas's imposing stature grabs your attention right away. A hulking human, the Puerto Rican had tipped the scales at 280 at one point during the seasons, making him almost better suited for a defensive lineman position. Because of that, analysts have thrown around comparisons to other large hitters in history like David Ortiz and Mo Vaughn.Ortiz is the most frequently recited comp based upon the pair's relationship that blossomed in Fort Myers and Vargas's admission that he based his left-handed swing Ortiz's. From this example -- his Futures Game double last month at Target Field -- you see the big leg-kick and hands-drop, a la Big Papi, from the left-side: http://i.imgur.com/C0O2M6U.gif In New Britain, Vargas displayed power from both sides of the plate but hit 11 of his 17 home runs from the left side with this swing: http://i.imgur.com/ebKMw5c.gif When he joined the team in Chicago, his swing was changed slightly. Though the big hand-drop before the swing was still prevalent -- as was the large leg-kick -- he had closed his stance. Most noteworthy is that the White Sox pitching staff did not let him see very many fastballs. According to ESPN/trumedia, Vargas saw 47 pitches and just 14 of those were fastballs. The vast majority were changeups and an assortment of breaking pitches: http://i.imgur.com/t8oO9qR.gif While the results were not bad for Vargas, his swings often produced bloops to the opposite field as the plethora of off-speed pitches disrupted his timing. As the team returned from Chicago for a series at home against the Padres, Twins Daily reader Willihammer astutely pointed out that Vargas had altered his swing. Instead of the leg-kick and hand movement, he was keeping himself still and his weight back: http://i.imgur.com/Xe2J7Ia.gif In at least the example above, Vargas kept his weight back effectively on the hanging breaking ball and was able to send that ball effortlessly into the stadium’s overhang. The Padres, for their part, sent more fastballs Vargas’s direction than the White Sox did. For those older fans who remembers the Twins teams at the turn of the century, this all should sound familiar. In 2001, David Ortiz was struggling to stay healthy and the Twins had him go through a series of adjustments at the plate to improve his overall approach. This from The Sporting News of that year: After Ortiz was released, he joined the Red Sox and continued to implement his big leg-kick swing and generated plenty of power and the ability to drive the ball to all fields, like the Twins had wanted him to do. This is not an attempt to open up old wounds from the past or berate the organization for a decision that probably still haunts them to this day, but the comparison is uncanny. To be sure, Vargas, a player who came straight from Double-A, is coming from a league whose pitching landscape is often filled with talented power arms but are still learning to locate their secondary pitches. Many analysts will tell you that if you succeed in Double-A, you should be able to succeed at the highest level. While that may be true in some cases, developing hitters miss out on the experience gained at Triple-A where pitchers do not have the same sexy velocity as their Double-A counterparts but are able to locate breaking balls and changeups. Players like Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks both have seen what can happen when pitchers can deploy secondary pitches with precision. What Vargas learned in his weekend in Chicago is that pitchers at this level can spot a change down and away with regularity. Hitting is an evolution and Vargas’s tweak may just be a temporary adjustment until he feels more comfortable with the mix of pitches he is now facing rather than a long-term change to his swing. Either way, Vargas represents a reason to watch the Twins even as the team wallows at the bottom of the division yet again. Click here to view the article

I don't know if I would agree with the latter part of that statement. We've seen plenty of off-line throws to the plate and an distinct inability to not get behind the ball before making a throw -- something seasoned outfielders do. More experience, reps, etc should improve this but, so far, I've seen a shortstop throwing the ball from the outfield. In all, I'm excited about his tools but, as Nick said, he's still raw.

Download attachment: Deduno Pulled.jpg With the possible exception of the popularity of “Call Me Maybe”, nothing has spun more out of control in 2012 than the Minnesota Twins starting pitching. Categorically the Twins rotation has produced some of the least desirable stats in the American League. For starters, their misshapen 5.50 ERA tops the charts. Performances like Nick Blackburn (7.39 ERA in 19 starts), Brian Duensing (6.92 in 11 starts) and Liam Hendriks (6.13 ERA in 15 starts) shows where that number can be quickly inflated. Adding insult to injury, their expected Fielding Independent Pitching (4.60 xFIP) is the highest in all of baseball and offers no reprieve that would suggest perhaps, just maybe, the local staff was unfairly fastened to that ugly ERA. Not surprising either is the fact that the rotation is currently averaging just 5.4 innings per starts - the lowest average in the American League. If you happened to have attended a Jason Marquis start and stopped for popcorn on your way to the seat, chances are with him getting the hook before the fifth inning (4.9), you would have missed your opportunity to see him pitch. Same scenario could be applied for a Duensing start as well (4.7). It is probably easy to deduce judging from the bloated ERA and the early showers that the rotation’s Quality Start percentage would also be adversely affected. And you would be punctilious in assuming that. In just 38% of their contests (60 of 152 games), the Twins have managed to get through six innings with allowing three runs or less. The biggest culprit, which has resulted in the sideways statistics listed above, is the battle of the first inning – a battle in which the Twins are losing in spectacular fashion. In the first inning, the Twins starters have issued 69 walks and allowed 32 home runs. Like politics and family dinners or crack and Charlie Sheen, putting runners on base and then surrendering moon shots is a volatile combination. Only Baltimore and Kansas City encroach on that home run mark (30 each), as we all know, the O’s are playing this season protected by a bubble of pixie dust and unicorn farts from Pythagoras and his nerdy theories. It is a year in which no matter how many runs they allow, the Orioles still wind up winning more games than they lose. The Twins and Royals, meanwhile, play in the real world where giving up runs in bunches has legitimate consequences. Right now, the Twins lead the American League in runs allowed in the first inning with 124. That’s a remarkable deficit to put one’s team into. Compare that to what may be a less talent Oakland A’s team on paper. With their brood of starters all under the age of 30, the A’s have allowed just 56 runs in the first inning. With a 68-runs allowed differential between the A’s and the Twins, if you subscribe to the notion that 10 runs equals one win, then Oakland is, in theory, 7-wins better than Minnesota in the first inning alone. Obviously, the original plan was not to head into the year with Scott Diamond, Cole De Vries, Sam Deduno or Brian Duensing taking up a large portion of the starts. Then again, the original plan was not all that solid, either. The Twins rolled the dice heading into 2012 and plowed forward with a starting rotation that was held together by a wing and a prayer. Scott Baker had always struggled with injuries. Nick Blackburn had not only been battling injuries but had been highly ineffective overall. Carl Pavano was showing signs of aging, with a strikeout rate and velocity that dropped in 2011. Francisco Liriano had a clunker of a 2011 and was nothing more than a coin-flip with a high upside if everything landed correctly. So much had to break in the team’s favor in order for this group to succeed, instead it all fell apart early on. As Terry Ryan spoke to in his conference call last night with season ticket holders, the highest priority will be to acquire starting pitching – whether it be through trades, free agency or exploring the international market. There is plenty of room for improvement and if the Twins are looking to raise their win total in 2013, giving their lineup a fighting chance in the battle of the first inning is a good place to start. Click here to view the article

It is consistent. Keep an eye on it when watching the games.

That's a fair point and I was actually wondering when someone was going to bring some of those up. That said, the changes are not created equal and do depend on the foundation of the hitter. In Parmelee's case, this gave him more power but his swing had plenty of holes in it to begin with. Plouffe's changes resulted in more up the middle/opposite field batted balls but cost him some power numbers. In both cases, I noted that the changes left them susceptible to adjustments from pitchers. In Parmelee's case, they pitched him up while Plouffe them pitched him down and away more. Suzuki did not have the same hole in his swing as either of these two.

So, in spite of the mechanical changes, the increase in contact and different batted ball distribution, you still think it is simply "luck"? Interesting.

What happened to all that offense that showed up for the Cleveland series? Or pitching for that matter? After scoring 24 runs, averaging six per game against the Indians, Will Smith and the Royals stopped the Twins bats cold and Kansas City would, as Ron Gardenhire would say after the game, hit the fire out of the ball. The Twins offense was far from the productive group it has shown against Cleveland, and gave the Royals pitchers very little to sweat about. In the bottom of the fifth, down by four runs, the Twins mounted what would end up being their best assault on the Royals. With no one out, Darin Mastroianni and Eduardo Escobar drew back-to-back walks and put pressure on the rookie lefty Will Myers. Myers, to his credit, battled through the two free passes and struck out Pedro Florimon on a slider in the dirt. And then the Twins ran themselves out of opportunities. In the next at bat, Mastroianni broke for third only to be gunned down by Salvador Perez. Up until that point, Mastroianni had been successful in 19 of 21 attempts including eight-for-eight when swiping third – basically money in the bank. Perez, however, has a cannon of an arm behind the plate and had erased 10-of-28 would-be base stealers heading into Tuesday’s game. “You gotta make sure in those situations; you can’t get thrown out in those situations,” Gardenhire said after the game. The Twins manager would go on to rave about Perez’s handling of baserunners, noting the quick feet, quick release and sidearm style in which Perez throw out Mastroianni. Josh Willingham, who went 1-for-4 in Tuesday’s game, summarized what made the rookie Will Smith effective against the Twins lineup. “He didn’t walk too many, pitched ahead in the count, pitched to the corners and did all the good things a pitcher needs to do.” Meanwhile, Scott Diamond, who has now thrown a career high 148.1 innings, was roughed up a bit, leaving some pitches up and walking a season-high three batters. “He was OK,” Gardenhire remarked. “Got a lot of pitches up and didn’t bury the pitches like he normally does.” Diamond was dinged by some early defensive misplays by Josh Willingham in the second inning. Willingham, who took left field for the first time since September 1, tentatively charged a looping fliner off the bat of Eric Hosmer which fell in for a single. One batter later, Lorenzo Cain got under one of Diamond’s change-ups and lifted it high above the stadium’s light towers. Willingham immediately threw his hands up, acknowledging he did not see the fly ball. The ball landed ten feet behind him and allowed the two runners on to score and Cain to trot into third with a gimme triple. The Twins left fielder would shrug it off as a bad day at the office. “It’s frustrating when you can’t see the ball. I would like for that stuff not to happen.” Of course, the Royals would not need to assistance of a befuddled Twins defense all night. After all, the racked up another six extra base hits and would give the Target Field grounds crew the night off after they raked everywhere on the field. It would be the fifth time this year the Twins pitchers would allow 16 or more hits in a game – and the second time in the season the Royals would put up that many. Diamond would not blame the outing on the added time off between starts thanks to the expanded rotation. “I feel a little inconsistent right now,” Diamond said following his six inning, ten-hit, four-run outing. “I feel like my stuff is getting to where it needs to be but my fastball’s location is a little off; my command is just a little off. It’s something that you have to battle with.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: KG.jpg The Minnesota Twins front office should feel somewhat vindicated by all of the recent draft picks, international signings and savvy trades which have brought the organization closer to sustainable relevancy – at least by MLB.com’s standards. On Tuesday night, MLB.com revealed their Top 100 prospects and six Twins prospects graced the list. Joining front-running Miguel Sano (12th), Minnesota sent 2012 draftee Byron Buxton (19th), recently acquired Alex Meyer (40th), Kyle Gibson (49th), Oswaldo Arcia (93rd) and Aaron Hicks (98th), into the top 100. Only Boston, Miami, St Louis and Texas equaled that total. The Twins added two additional prospects to that list over the prior year – mainly due to the return of Gibson from Tommy John surgery, the acquisition of Meyer, and the rebound of Arcia, who was added after he missed a substantial part of 2011. Both Sano and Buxton moved up in the rankings while Hicks dropped from 59th to 98th Eddie Rosario, who was ranked 80th in 2012 but was injured for a portion of 2012, was bumped off completely. Overall, based on the prospect points rankings (i.e. 100 equals 1 point, 99 equals 2 points, etc) the Twins’ scored 295, good for fourth behind Seattle, St. Louis and Tampa – three very good organizations when it comes to developing in-house talent. Earlier this month, Baseball America’s Jim Callis released their preliminary top ten list for farm systems in baseball. According to Callis, the Twins ranked seventh. Ahead of them included the Cardinals, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Red Sox and Rays. Once again, they ranked among the game’s best and – with the exception of the Mariners and Marlins – regular contenders. This was a sizable jump in BA’s standings considering that Baseball America viewed 19 other organizations to be better than the Twins a year ago. The climb was similar at prospect guru John Sickels’s site MinorLeagueBall.com. Last year, he placed them at 17th overall but moved them up to seventh as well this year. Of course, it should be noted how quickly teams can swing from top to bottom of Baseball America’s list. For instance, in 2010, the Cardinals were ranked as 29th, after being rated eighth the previous year. Two years later, they are the number one team. Likewise Cleveland who was in the seventh spot in 2011 dropped to 29th heading into last year. Several trades or solid draft picks can do wonders for an organization. Outside of the aforementioned big-ticket guys on the list, players like Rosario, newly acquired pitcher Trevor May and outfielder Max Kepler are drawing plenty of attention. Arms like J.O. Barrios and Luke Bard are also leaving strong impressions and could contribute quickly in Minnesota. Team president Dave St. Peter’s remarks on the recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast over the TwinsFest weekend revealed the team’s intentions. “We’re trying to do this right,” St. Peter said in regards to the team’s strategy. “We’re trying to do it the only way we know how to do it, which is to build this thing through our farm system and for the long term.” While many fans may be disheartened by the moves (or lack of moves) made at the major league level, building a solid foundation is imperative for the long-term success of any team. Having a strong minor league system does not necessarily mean waiting until 2021 and Hover Board Giveaway Day at the ballpark to be competitive either. Having a strong system also gives teams the luxury of trading for parts to help immediately. This offseason the Toronto Blue Jays, who were rated fourth in 2012, unleashed a flurry of prospects to land starters Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle and shortstop Jose Reyes. The Royals sent the number three overall prospects Wil Myers to Tampa for starter James Shields (for better or worse). If the 2014 roster – with an aging core of Mauer and Willingham – appear poised to compete, the team could trade from the depth to provide immediate reinforcements if deemed appropriate. Even if the rest of the 2013 season doe not quite go as schedule, rest assured that the team is laying the right groundwork to build upon. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: PC.jpg In yet another Geek-less installment of Gleeman and the Geek, joining Aaron Gleeman on this week’s GATG podcast is Twins Daily’s Parker Hageman -- who fills in for the globetrotting John Bonnes. Podcasting live from Panino Brothers in Eden Prairie, the pair discuss the Twins’ involvement in sabermetrics, projecting the Opening Day roster, why no one wants Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum and the best of the remaining free agent pitchers, saying something nice about Samuel Deduno, New Year’s resolutions, and making friends with drunk women (#VoteWashington). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Check out the latest episode via any of these channels: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hammer.jpg For a significant portion of the year, Josh Willingham fueled the Twins offense and gave the fans something to watch while the team sank deeper in the standings. He proved that Target Field was not resistant to home team home runs. In fact, his 21 home runs at home easily trumped long-standing fan-favorite Michael Cuddyer’s 17 hit in his two years at Target Field (2010-2011). Jim Thome managed to swat 21 home runs as well but needed 14 more plate appearances than him to do so. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fan looking for a reason to believe in the 2013 team will be interested to know if Willingham will continue his vicious pace set last year. Unfortunately, indications suggest that his home run total is almost certain to decrease in 2013. And here’s why: Stats. [Drops mic; leaves the stage.] But stats kept hometown hero Jack Morris out of the Hall of Fame even though he single-handedly won the World Series for the Minnesota Twins and once saved a baby seal or something. So why should we believe stats? [Walks back on stage. Picks mic back up.] True and I totes agree that we should burn down all stats and calculators and stuff right after I finish this piece but, for now, hear me out. One measurement that suggests the Willinghammer will see a dingers decline in 2013 is because of his home run distributions -- as captured by HitTrackerOnline.com. For those unfamiliar, Hit Tracker charts all home runs hit and, through methods that go beyond my mathematical capabilities, calculates their “true landing spot.” Whereas ballpark present distances that are based mostly on the architecture of the existing facility and projecting where the ball would have landed had it not have been stopped by, say, the batter’s eye in center field, HitTrackerOnline.com factors in atmospheric data and speed off the bat to generate their data. This, in theory, should be a more accurate representation of a player’s true abilities to hit and sustain home runs. With their data, Hit Tracker has made three classifications for home runs. Those which clear the fence by 20 vertical feet and pass it by 50 feet are considered a “No Doubt” home run. Think Giancarlo Stanton’s 494-foot bomb off of new Twins pitcher Josh Roenicke. At the other end of the spectrum are home runs which exit the field by 10 vertical feet or land one fence height past the wall. These are labeled as “Just Enough” home runs. Just Enough home runs are wall-scrapers like Tampa’s B.J. Upton’s 323-foot home run off of Ervin Santana which nearly grazed the foul pole and the left field wall at Tropicana. Finally, everything else in between is considered “Plenty.” Based on their figures, a standard distribution of home runs have been 18% No Doubt, 55% Plenty and 27% Just Enough. If a player is well above the Just Enough 27% threshold, the prevailing assumption is that he had good fortune of having a few additional balls escape the playing surface thanks to weather, ballpark configurations or simply the blessings of the baseball gods. In Willingham’s case, he had a whopping 45% of his home runs fall under the “Just Enough/Lucky” category. What this means, if the Hit Tracker theory holds water, is that Willingham’s home run totals will start to slide back to his career norms – which had been 22 heading into last season. Furthering this idea that he is poised for home run decline is the fact that Willingham is coming off a career year in terms of home runs-to-fly ball ratio. In 2012, 21.2% of his fly balls left the yard - which was well above his career average of 15%. This will almost assuredly regress back to the mean as well. In terms of his home run totals, Willingham is almost a text book case for regression. That said, it does not mean he will drop drastically in value. As I stated prior to his signing, he is almost the ideal hitter for Target Field – a right-handed pull-hitter with power. More than that, Willingham stresses patience in his approach at the plate leading to a healthy walk rate and on-base percentage. Perhaps it went unnoticed because of his power numbers, but he chased after just 21.7% of out-of-zone pitches, the fifth lowest rate in baseball last year. That was lower than such plate discipline luminaries as Denard Span and Joe Mauer. That skill set should ensure that he continues to provide a great deal of value even if a few fly balls fall short on the warning track in 2013. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: grand-drunk-railroad.jpg With John Bonnes on vacation in San Francisco (and presumably trapped in an opium den), on this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode Parker Hageman of Twins Daily subs in and topics included the Twins finishing the first half by beating the Yankees, Ron Gardenhire on the hot seat, Oswaldo Arcia and Chris Parmelee being demoted back to Triple-A, the upcoming light rail pub crawl/Twins game, Glen Perkins' trade value, mailbag questions from listeners, and my chances of being the new Fox Sports North Girl. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] NOTE: For more on the light rail pub crawl/Twins game event on September 14, please see the event page at the Twins Daily Facebook page or purchase tickets here. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg When Jack Hannahan signed with the Cincinnati Reds last week, this took yet another potential third base option off the board for the Minnesota Twins. Hannahan, a local product with above-average defensive prowess and a mediocre platoon bat from the left-side, appeared to be a given to land in Minnesota. With Terry Ryan’s statements that the team was going to push their incumbent, Trevor Plouffe, Hannahan’s left-handedness and superior defense felt like the logical fit. Perhaps less realistically, free agent Eric Chavez was also snapped up by a more competitive Diamondbacks team. The Twins also flirted a bit with the Cardinals and utility man Skip Schumaker but the Los Angeles Dodgers ultimately obtained the 32-year-old. Clearly the Twins have been putting forth effort in that market this offseason but will little progress. The focus shifted the past few weeks to acquiring starting pitching -- such as the recent signings of Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey -- and the third base position has moved to the back burner. How important is it that either the Twins find a suitable challenger to Plouffe’s position? Very, if you follow the data. Thanks to a collection of pitchers who allows for an exorbitant amount of contact, the Twins infielders were tested regularly this past season. In fact, their left side of the infield led the league in most balls hit into their respective zones in 2012. At third, Minnesota had 402 in-zone balls hit that direction -- the next closest was Boston at 385. Highest In-Zone Balls - Third Base 2012 [TABLE=width: 624] Team In-Zone Balls Twins 402 Red Sox 385 Royals 383 Giants 383 Rockies 370 [/TABLE] (via Fangraphs.com’s BIS data) Plouffe, who handled a shade over 800 innings in the field last year, was marginal at best according to defensive metrics. His own revised zone rated of .691 was 22nd overall among third basemen with a minimum of 500 innings in the field. This was a fairly average mark considering the top third baseman by this metric -- Jack Hannahan -- was at .791. But more that that, Plouffe’s ability to make plays outside a third baseman’s standard universe was also poor in comparison to others. In 804.2 defensive innings, Plouffe was able to convert just 14 balls out of the standard zone into outs. Over ten other third basemen with fewer innings were able to make more outs on balls out of that zone. Another area of the game in which Plouffe needed work is turning double plays. In 2012, the Twins led all of baseball with 158 double plays turned. Part of that is a byproduct of having a high-contact pitching staff with ground ball tendencies combined with opponents who start a hit parade. Furthermore, when you lead baseball with the most batted balls into third and shortstop zones, you can expect a high number of double plays. Here’s the thing: With all the opportunities, with all the plays in zone, with all the base-runners, Plouffe started just 12 double plays all year (24th in baseball). With a high-contact staff, it is almost imperative that double plays are turned to help get the defensive off the field. So, Plouffe was converting on just 69% of plays inside his zone whereas the game’s elite were making outs on nearly 80% of their opportunities. This may not seem like a significant difference however for every ball that is failed to be converted into an out, it allows the opposing team to extend their half of the inning. With a high percentage of contact-oriented pitchers, this spells trouble. With the addition of similar high-contact arms in Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey, these figures are not likely to drop either, making that a fairly vital position for the team. With two months remaining until pitchers and catchers report, the Twins may begin to increase their shopping activity once again - specifically in the third base department. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: alexi-casilla-twins.jpg According to Phil Mackey, the Twins and Alexi Casilla have reached a one-year agreement worth $1.38 million. Because of injuries, Casilla played in only 97 games last year and hit .260/.322/.368 with 15 stolen bases while scoring 52 runs. In doses he has proven that he is capable of holding down a starting position and it appears that he will be the team's starting second baseman at the beginning of the year. Please comment on this story here. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

First off, thanks. In regards to staying closed a losing the ability to square the ball, I am perfectly fine with that for Suzuki. If he were a different type of hitter (an Arcia or someone with power potential) I would probably have more concern. However with Suzuki's high contact approach, I am OK with sacrificing the occasional extra base hit via a fly ball for additional base hits and the added OBP. He does fire open well when he is hunting for inside pitches too.

At Twins Daily, the discussion regarding what to do with catcher Kurt Suzuki leading up to the trade deadline was a highly debated topic. On one hand, the Twins have a commodity that is having one of the best years of his career and his trade value might never be greater. For an organization trying to rebuild, capitalizing on this value would be beneficial by potentially bringing in new talent with the option of finding a new catcher in free agency again this winter if need be (though, admittedly, the trade market for Suzuki never seemed to materialize after the Cardinals and Orioles appeared uninterested in the backstop). On the other, you have a player who is well-respected on the team and provides a stable presence in a vital position. While not necessarily a defensive whiz some would like you to believe, pitchers like Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Kyle Gibson have all touted and benefited from his abilities. Leaving those elements aside, let us simply focus on the question of whether or not Suzuki can sustain his offensive output over the duration of his extension.As far as catchers go, Suzuki has been an on-base machine as of late. Dating back to August of last year, he has had the third-highest OBP among American League catchers. That figure is buoyed by the best batting average (.306). At the same time, his power numbers have been awful. His isolated slugging percentage (.085) is the second-lowest in all of baseball in that duration. Nevertheless, with a position that places an emphasis on defense, having a handler who can produce those on-base numbers at the expense of power is a net positive. But can it continue? When a player in the middle of his career suddenly has his best offensive season, there is an immediate tendency to consider it an anomaly. The belief is that because of this single-season spike, regression will often follow. For this reason, Suzuki’s 2014 numbers have rightfully been scrutinized. At 30 years old and in his eighth season in the majors, the Minnesota Twins’ catcher has significantly outperformed his numbers -- specifically the batting average and his on-base percentage. Is he suddenly hitting rockets around the field? Absolutely not. According to ESPN/trumedia Suzuki’s Hard Hit Average (an observation-based metric from Inside Edge’s video scouts that measures if a ball was well-struck or not) has been the lowest since his 2009 season. No one watching would be fooled into thinking he is hitting frozen ropes around the yard, but he’s hitting them where they ain’t. While he is in possession of his lowest Hard Hit Average of the past seven years, he has compiled his highest batting average on balls in play -- a gaudy .324 compared to his .274 career average. To summarize, Suzuki's current success if based on the fact that he is hitting pitches softer than ever and is yet somehow finding seams and vacant real estate. That’s not reassuring, is it? Small Changes In spite of these key indicators that would suggest massive regression in his future, Suzuki’s improvement goes beyond luck. At the beginning of the season when Suzuki came out of the gates on fire, I reviewed his video footage and noticed a small yet important change in his swing: He altered his front foot landing. Look at the comparison of the clips below. In the first clip from when he was with the Washington Nationals in 2013, Suzuki swung his leg open slightly and landed toward the pitcher. In the clip from this season, Suzuki’s stride and landing would keep him slightly toward first base. http://i.imgur.com/4jUFOUc.gif http://i.imgur.com/avvL4Bu.gif This has allowed for improved plate coverage for Suzuki. Already a disciplinarian when it comes to the strike zone, he struggled with pitches on the outside portion of the plate. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, from 2009 through July 2013, he hit just .230 on pitches away. Since implementing the changes after being traded to Oakland last year, he has batted .297 on pitches outside. No longer would he be pulling away from those pitches but he would be better suited to drive them, as his line drive rate increased with the changes. Also note the position of his hands. Instead of moving them to load, as he is seen doing while with the Nationals, he keeps his hands back at the onset and has little movement when loading. Along with the firm front side, Suzuki shows less head movement which appears to be resulting in improved contact. Because of this, assigning his offensive performance in 2014 to luck does not seem like the right conclusion. Off The Bat Along with the mechanical tweak, Suzuki’s approach has shifted as well. At one time a marginal power producer, he has seen that decline significantly in 2014. Part of the this is the fact that he is no longer hitting fly balls. Instead, he is putting up the highest line drive and ground ball rates of his career -- also a product of his changes as he hits the top-middle of the ball more frequently. This is important because line drives and ground balls become hits more often than fly balls but at the expense of power. If he is able to maintain this batted ball distribution -- which based on his mechanical changes seems plausible -- then Suzuki has a better chance of continuing to hit safely and thereby sustaining his on-base percentage. Conclusion To be sure, Suzuki will likely see some decline in his numbers over the next two seasons because of age and some balls not squeaking through the infield. After all, teams are deploying Tom Verducci's illegal defenses at an alarming rate this year and they may figure out a way to combat Suzuki's ground balls as well. Still, with his mechanical adjustment and his sound approach at the plate, Suzuki has the potential to continue this output at a similar level for the next two years. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Perkins.jpg Since assuming the closer’s role for good, Glen Perkins has been absolutely brilliant, now converting 11 consecutive save opportunities. There was one semi-minor hiccup – allowing a solo home run to Andruw Jones to bring the Yankees within one of the Twins. The pitch was clearly a slider which was intended to be buried at Jones’s feet but rather hung belt high over the plate. It wound up being the third home run Perkins has surrendered on his slider this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] [/hr] Since June 12, 33 of Jared Burton’s last 36 appearances have been scoreless. As Seth Stohs noted yesterday, he’s been one hell of an acquisition for the Twins front office. In fact, among all pitchers, Burton’s performance in high leverage situation – those in which the game is on the line – have been the best in baseball. Under those circumstances, opponents are hitting just .083 – the lowest in the MLB. Of course, Burton’s performance in those situations should have no bearing on his future performance. For example, the Nationals’ Tyler Clippard led baseball with a .067 average against in high leverage situations in 2011 and ended up with a .230 average against this season. Still, Burton is sound nonetheless. He’s got a high swing-and-miss rate (13.8%) and with a solid changeup, he gets a ton chases out of the zone (37.7%). [/hr] The Yankees’ Phil Hughes had entered last night’s game with the worst numbers when facing right-handed hitting in 2012. In addition to a .307/.343/.595 batting line against, he’s also allowed 23 home runs to righties this year. Naturally, the Twins have two right-handed hitters in the lineup – Trevor Plouffe and Jamey Carroll – who go 1-for- 6 with just a single from Carroll. According to the Twins’ official press release, after Joe Mauer threw out two would-be Yankees base thieves, it marked the first time he had nailed two runners in a game since July 28, 2011 in Texas. This now brings his season total to five runners caught – a trend which may be sourced to improper mechanics. [/hr] Following Liam Hendriks’ three-run first inning on Monday night, the Twins total first inning runs allowed on the year reached 124 or 52 more runs in the first than that of last year. [/hr] Nick Nelson plays the comparison game with Liam Hendriks, likening the start of his career to another homer-happy Twins hurler. In detailing Hendriks’ woes last week, I noted that his inability or reluctance to pitch right-handers inside adversely affected the outcome of his slider. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Pitch F/X leaderboard, it is one of the least effective sliders in 2012. First is the utter destruction of the pitch. While Ervin Santana (13) has outpaced Hendriks (7) and the rest of baseball in terms of home runs allowed on the pitch, keep in mind Santana has thrown many more this year – spinning 948 to Hendriks’ 172 sliders. In fact, among those who have had seven or more home runs hit off of their slider, the minimum amount of had been 630 (Jason Marquis). Second, in addition to being hit hard, he’s simply unable to retire anyone with what should be a put away pitch but Hendriks’ 4.35% put away percentage is currently the lowest in baseball. In his last start, the one thing Hendriks did extremely well was attacking the inner-half of the plate on the right-handed hitting Alex Rodriguez which opened up the outer-half for his slider. [/hr] The Wall Street Journal examines just how biased your hometown announcers are. Where does Dick & Bert rate among all of baseball? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Joe Mauer.jpg The effects of taking several foul tips off his face mask are still lingering for Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said before Tuesday’s game against the Royals. “He came in today and says he’s feeling pretty decent,” Gardenhire said but later added that Mauer will not be ready to return the lineup any time soon. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “He’s not ready anyway right now. We just have to wait and see; I don’t have a timetable. They got to tell me when to play him. I will discuss it with him once we get the go-go from the doctors. There’s no sense in talking about it until he gets back.” Gardenhire’s recollection of the events leading up to Mauer’s DL visit is something that is becoming more and more commonplace among catchers. “He came to my office earlier in the day and we talked about not catching, I was going to play him at first base and he said that would be a good idea. He took one off his helmet and mask -- a couple of them pretty hard,” Gardenhire recanted. “He said his forehead kind of hurts. That was the first time I heard about that. It was good when we were playing first base but once he got out there in batting practice it wasn’t good at all. He was taking ground balls at first and Joe normally doesn’t miss too many ground balls and he was missing just about everything. You could see he was a little loopy.” What happened to Mauer was innocuous but because of the increasing amount of concussion awareness and preventative measures set up by the league, the frequency of these instances will likely grow, Gardenhire believes. In 2011 MLB instituted a seven-day disabled list specifically to handle these types of injuries. According to medical research cited by the league, the mild variety of concussion injuries typically clears within five-to-seven days and gives the player the opportunity to be evaluated by the team’s medical staff. “I don’t think we even knew they had it,” said Gardenhire. “You didn’t know you had a concussion. It wasn’t something that was talked about. It was just ‘man, I don’t feel good today’ but you just played. And it was because there was nobody ever diagnosing it as a concussion. It just wasn’t there. You know, you get knocked out in a game you get back up and finish the game. Nowadays that just doesn’t happen.” Of course, the player in the most direct line of fire is the team’s catcher. As HardballTalk.com pointed out last week, in the past month five catchers have been place on the seven-day DL. “This is a good thing,” Gardenhire acknowledges of the added attention to concussions. “But you are going to see a lot of this from catchers. They get wacked pretty good. That foul ball off the mask, and I know they are trying all kinds of things, there’s no way to stop. I don’t know what kind of mask they can make that is going to stop that neck from getting whipped back like that after you get a 90-plus mile per hour ball tipped right into the mask like that.” It is hard to foresee MLB making any changes to the way the game operates that would remove the catcher from harm’s way of the foul tip (robot umpires and catchers?). Equipment will be examined by the sport to see if there are any styles that provided added safety. However the current available stock – heavy or titanium or goalie-style – offer little difference in the level of protection, says Gardenhire, especially when trying to stop the whiplash effect of the neck snapping back upon contact. “They all got different masks. You got heavy masks, the really light mask, titanium, you know all that stuff. No matter how light his mask was, you still saw him got hit that time and everything shook. It’s gonna happen. There’s no getting away from it." "It’s just something we are going to have to figure out and deal with it now and go from there. You are going to see that quite a bit, catcher’s getting dinged up.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Bryant.jpg Who IS This Guy? The legend of the power of six-foot-five, 215-pound Kris Bryant has increased rapidly over his career at the University of San Diego, reaching He-Man-esque proportions in his senior year after he launched 30 bombs. It was not just the number of homers that drew scouts’ attention; it was also the distance that helped him ascend up teams’ draft boards. Reportedly, the corner infielder hit a blast that was estimated over 500 feet when it cleared an 80-foot tall light tower at his university’s home stadium. Some suggest that estimate was low. No matter, the 21-year-old Bryant has smacked 54 dingers in his three year collegiate career and has mashed his way into becoming one of the top draft choices this year. Who Could He Be? An offensive monster, that’s for sure. The right-handed hitting Bryant employs a wide base, a stance that seems to have developed in his more recent collegiate years. He has a minimal swing, keeping his head and lower half still during his weight transfer but creates a substantial amount of torque with his hips and a strong front side. Bryant’s swing was constructed, he said, by his father, a former Boston Red Sox draftee. Citing Ted Williams’ method from his book, The Science of Hitting, Bryant incorporated the upward swing to counter the downward flight of the ball, attempting to achieve a more flush point of contact. The slight uppercut swing – along with a minimalist weight transfer and extremely well-leveraged front side – has created a ton of big fly balls for the University of San Diego infielder. This year, he has jacked 30 in the regular season – a USD school record in addition to making him the NCAA Division I leader. In fact, the next closest total to Bryant’s was 18. Bryant’s home run power is not a mess created by the TING! of the aluminum bat either. College baseball has switched to composite bats which has muted some of the speed at impact – not nearly as much as a wood bat but the change has certainly quelled the home run totals since the bats' introduction. Judging from his big bop potential, it is not surprising that he had an abundance of walks. The 62 he drew led the NCAA in that category as well. Most of those were not necessarily the product of patience but simply that teams refused to pitch to him. Seeing a pitch in the strike zone was such an infrequent occurrence through the first 33 games of the season that Rich Hill, USD’s manager, moved him to the lead-off spot in order to get him a few more pitches to hit. That said, Bryant’s plate coverage is also reported to be thing of beauty. According to an LA Times story, during Bryant’s freshman year, the University of San Francisco’s coach ordered his pitcher to throw out of the zone to the San Diego slugger. After a majestic home run, the coach scolded his pitcher on throwing the ball over the plate. San Francisco’s catcher came to his pitcher’s defense, saying the pitch was at least two-and-a-half balls off of the plate. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? As a college draftee, Bryant is expected to move up the ranks quickly. One could easily envision him tearing apart Appalachian League pitching so his starting point following the draft is likely at A ball – either Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers. Slowing his development might be the switch to wood bats and facing tougher competition. While with USD teams did not challenge him, which led to a high number of walks. In the minors, he’ll start seeing hard-throwing, big-bending and precision-guided pitching as he moves up the ladder. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… The list is short: He’s not a pitcher. And the Twins need more top-tier pitching. Outside of that, there is not much else that would constitute a good reason for not selecting Bryant at number four. Additionally, massive power in college does not necessarily translate to massive major league success. Look at former collegiate slugger Pete Incaviglia. Inky hit 49 home runs in 75 games with Oklahoma State in 1985, setting the college record for home runs in a single season. While he displayed 25-30 home runs power for the Rangers in the mid-to-late 1980s, his inability to make consistent contact led to his move to a role-player position. Bryant obviously has more tools than Incaviglia, including speed and defensive prowess, but there is always the chance his hitting never translates. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… Bryant is not expected to be around at the fourth pick. The consensus among the draft experts is that he will be off-the-board by the third pick. If, for some divine reason, the three teams ahead of the Twins (Astros, Cubs and Rockies) decide to go another direction, the organization should be thankful to have a talent like Bryant available. Miguel Sano may be the third baseman for the foreseeable future, but Bryant is skilled enough – and definitely has the power stroke- to plausably move to a corner outfield position. --- Twins Daily MLB Draft Player Profiles: Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SPTuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OFWednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OFThursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHPFriday, May 24-- Clint Frazier, OFTuesday, May 28-- Reese McGuire, CWednesday, May 29—Braden Shipley, RHP Thursday, May 30 -- Kohl Stewart, RHP For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: questions.JPG Rather than spew out some analysis based on hot stove rumors and theories (which I've already done on Shaun Marcum and Kevin Youkilis, by the way), I thought I would take the opportunity to field some burning questions from the Twins Daily followers via Twitter. On to your questions: Who will be the Twins starting rotation on Opening Day? [@MichaelRHerman] [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As the Twins have said since the season started winding down in September, Scott Diamond is the only pitcher guaranteed a spot in next year’s rotation. Outside of Diamond, here’s what I envision happening at this point: I see the Twins re-signing Scott Baker, signing one mid-to-low free agent and then trading for a starter. Best optimistic guess at this point? Here’s what I would like to see: 1: James Shields 2: Scott Baker 3: Shaun Marcum/Jeremy Guthrie/Joe Blanton 4: Scott Diamond 5: Internal candidate (Liam Hendriks/Kyle Gibson/Samuel Deduno/Brian Duensing) How’s that? Think there’s any real chance of trading for a strong starter like Buehrle or Shields? [@christopherokey] More so this year than in previous years. I believe the front office is under some pressure from ownership to improve the team in order to avoid seeing a historic decline in revenue during the first five seasons of a new ballpark. Now, I do not believe these to be Steinbrenner-esque directives (“Go out and get be the best-damn pitcher available, money is no object.”) from ownership but Terry Ryan will likely wind up trading a long-time Twin (Denard Span, possibly) and/or someone from the farm system in order to get that piece. Of course, it also matters too what the opposing teams thinks their commodities are worth in return. As much as people like to think the Rays need to unload Shields, they are already shaving off a substantial portion of their payroll (upwards of $20 million), so there is not a need to jettison the pitchers who has thrown the third-most innings in the last three seasons. Rays will likely be looking for a solid return for Shields who has a reasonable $10.25 million left on his contract in addition to a $12 million 2014 team option. I personally like the idea of a Shields acquisition (as you can see by my prediction above) but I just don’t know if the Twins have enough or are willing to part with enough to get him. On the other hand, Buehrle, who has been amazingly consistent and durable for his career, could come less of a ransom than Shields. However, the Marlins have him locked in through 2015 and -- while he is owed a reasonable $11 million in 2013 -- he has $18 million and $19 million coming to him in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as he enters his late-30s. I’m not sure the Twins want to trade away a prime asset for those latter years. Why does Mauer hate hitting home runs? [@DanaWessel] Like most real Minnesotans, Joe Mauer would love to put his head down and just go about his business without all the hoopla. Home runs clearly put undue attention on him while circling the bases from all those cheering fans at the game. Real Minnesotans like Mauer would prefer to slap singles and avoid the showboating. In reality, there is a lot that goes why the sudden spike in 2009 and the complete inability to poke a few shots in to the stands every now and then. First is the external factor of the ballparks which played a significant role in both the increase and the decline. At the Metrodome in 2009 Mauer was feasting on the front row of the left field bleacher seats – hitting 16 of his 28 home runs in that direction. When the Twins moved to Target Field, the outdoor elements and dimensions became extremely restrictive for that kind of power. A ball hit to the right-center gap or center field has difficulty leaving the park. Secondly, his on-going knee issues have undoubtedly drained some power, reducing the amount of drive produced from his lower-half. One interesting note: three of Mauer’s home runs this year have been right down the right field line, not far off of the foul pole. Only one of his home runs dating back to 2008 had been in that region. Perhaps he is starting to figure out what needs to be done in order to hit home runs at Target Field. With another offseason to heal and the additional time away from catching could equate to more “dingers” in 2013. That said don’t expect a big jump, maybe 15 at the most next year. That’s not what most fans want to hear, but Mauer still provides plenty of value with his ability to avoid making outs in over 40% of his plate appearances (one of four hitters in the league this year to do so). Why do former Twins do better outside of the Twins system? (Dickey, Hardy, Lohse, etc) [@brandon_mack] I don’t think this is necessarily true. Yes, there are some players who realize their potential after leaving the organization but it is not because of something the team is or is not doing with these players. Most of the time it the improvement is up to the individual not the organization. What’s more is that in the case of the three players you named, other organizations could also claim the same thing. In the case of R.A. Dickey, he was still very much attempting to refine his knuckleball – a pitch he had just picked up two seasons before arriving to the Twins. He did not have his mastery of knuck then, rarely getting opponents to chase the pitch out of the strike zone or induce silly-looking swings. Both the Rangers and the Brewers gave up on Dickey. J.J. Hardy was not completely healthy (which may or may not have been a testament to the training staff) and he did not focus on pulling the ball (which may or may not have been hitting coach related). When he got to Baltimore, he got healthy, got focused on turning on pitches and was in an environment that was more conducive to hitting home runs. With Lohse, both the Reds and the Phillies had Lohse without reaping the same benefits that the Cardinals just had with his 2012 season. In short, I do not believe there is some internal issues that is causing the Twins to fail to identify future performance – at least, no more so than any other team. Who is the best long-term option at 1B? Morneau, Parmelee or other. [@MikeAmundsen12] With Justin Morneau in his early 30’s and teeming with various injuries, it’s not him. Hulking first baseman with injury tendencies do not age well – in fact it typically accelerates. Take Travis Hafner, for example. Until the age of 30, Pronk was having an outstanding career and even receiving MVP votes. After 30, his big body began to breakdown rapidly and frequently, resulting in a significant decline in his numbers: Age 25-30: 112 games per year, .290/.393/.552, 142 HRs Age 31-35: 86 games per year, .259/.353/.436, 59 HRs Because of that, I do not see the Twins retaining Morneau beyond his current contract. Parmelee is still young, intriguing but is unproven over the course of an entire season at the major league level. His 2012 season at Rochester -- one in which he had the league’s second-highest isolated power average (minimum 250 plate appearances) – raising eyebrows that he can develop into a player with some legit power. As Terry Ryan said in the Offseason Handbook, the Twins appear committed to putting Parmelee in the lineup somewhere this year. It may be in right to begin with, but after next season, he could be the team’s first baseman for the next several years. Of course, the real key to the Twins long-term plans at first base will be Mauer. Already seeing some time at first, he has looked comfortable at the defensive-side of the position and could eventually be there for the duration of his contract once squatting is out of the question. Who are the number one suitors for [Denard] Span? Does Gibson start the season with the big league club? [@dropshotbob] It looks like the Rays maybe the top suitors for Span. Tampa has not outright expressed interest, but Span is certainly a logical fit, what with his good defense, good plate discipline and good contract, plus, because B.J. Upton is likely to leave via free agency, Span is almost a natural target. If he doesn’t end up there, Atlanta is another team looking for center field help. Unless something happens to Kyle Gibson between now and spring training, he’s likely on an inside track to start the season with the Twins – probably in the bullpen where the team can limit his innings and monitor his progress as he adapts to major league hitters and wraps his head around pitching in double-decker stadiums. If Buxton doesn’t pan out as a positional player, chance #Twins try him as a pitcher? Reports were mid-hi 90’s in HS. [@Aaron_jenkins] This topic has come up with Aaron Hicks as well, who purportedly threw in the low 90s in high school like Buxton. So far, there are no indications that Buxton is headed for a bust – after all, he was both the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League’s number one prospect overall as an 18-year-old. However, if for whatever reason, he winds up unable to climb up the system as a hitter, I would definitely want the Twins to consider seeing if he can be converted to a pitcher. In fact, any and all positional prospects who have an arm should be given the opportunity to see if they can throw off a mound before being given their walking papers. In a piece at Deadspin.com, Jack Dickey spoke to St Louis Cardinals’ farm director John Vuch and that organizations methods for dealing with prospects with great arms who end up unable to catch on as a hitter: How are my Red Sox gonna look next year? [@MinnesotaRonin] Much like the Twins, the 2012 Red Sox had extensive troubles with their pitching staff – at least in the earned runs department. Boston allowed 754 earned runs, finishing one behind the Twins in that category and third most in the American League. And, like the Twins, things didn’t quite work out as planned, either. Two of their starters, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, had down years. Lester’s season was much more unexpected as the lefty had emerged as the team’s number one-type arm but a decline in strikeouts and an increase in his average on balls in play resulted in more runs. Josh Beckett’s fastball velocity dropped from 93.1 in 2011 to 91.4 in 2012 which opponents made much better contact on. So they wind up dishing out 94 innings to guys like Aaron Cook, who never met a bat he couldn’t hit. In fact, Cook’s 4.9% strikeout rate was the lowest among any starter with a minimum of 90 innings dating since the Mariners’ Glenn Abbott posted the same rate in 1979. But, unlike the Twins, the Red Sox have a ton of financial freedom – and that gives them the ability to fix things quick. In addition to an already high revenue stream, thanks to the unloading of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (and I suppose Nick Punto too), this has freed up approximately $60 million of payroll to rectify the pitching problem, grab an outfield bat and perhaps bail out the auto industry as well. So far, the Sox have been tied to a bevy of free agent including Dan Haren and Scott Baker among others, who would go along with the existing arms of Lester, Buccholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. And rumor is the Sox are looking at former Twin Torii Hunter as well. By the way, if you would like to participate in the next round of questions, follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) and fire me any or all Twins/baseball-related inquiries. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pavano.jpg It was revealed a week ago that Carl Pavano’s shoulder was hurting and that the team had him undergo an MRI for precautionary measures. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fortunately for the already thin pitching staff, the MRI showed nothing more than inflammation and, in preventative efforts, the Twins eased up on their workhorse, limiting his pitches and allowed him to miss the recent series in Detroit to have some soft-tissue therapy on his shoulder. The hopes are that by lightening his load, Pavano will heal and not require a cortisone shot following his next start. Since the beginning of the season, Pavano’s velocity drop has had team officials concerned. While the tests showed no significant injury, the big right-hander admitted that he feels that he cannot get proper extension on his pitches and his results suggest there may be something to that. While his peripheral numbers are actually a slight improvement over his 2011 campaign – his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down – his ability to generate ground balls has dissipated over the course of the season. Currently holding a 44.2% ground ball rate, it is his lowest amount of turf-killer since the year he came over to the Twins in ’09. Because hitters are able to elevate the ball, he is allowing home runs at a higher clip – going from 0.93 home runs per nine innings to 1.29. Through his first four starts of the year, Pavano pitched like business-as-usual. He was able to miss bats (8% swinging strikes) and induced more grounders than fly balls (1.18 GB/FB). From his April 22 start against the Royals onward, likely when the Twins began to limit his pitch count, Pavano was a different pitcher. Hitters were making outstanding contact (just a 3% swinging strike rate) and the ground balls dried up (0.65 GB/FB). Outside of his fastball’s velocity, the biggest causality of his sore shoulder has been his second most used pitch, his changeup, and one of the reasons the grounders have become fly balls. In 2010 and 2011, Pavano’s change was one of the game’s best according to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value. His 18.1 runs above average on the pitch was tied for ninth-best in that span, placing him with such change artists as Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romero. This season, his change-up is now 2.6 runs below average, making it one of the bottom-dwellers in that category. In theory, a change thrown with a good differential and down in the zone should induce plenty of weak contact as hitters find themselves unable to hold up and turn over on the pitch. A year ago, his change-up was able to get a ground ball on 51.6% on all contact (including fouls, home runs, etc) which is a very strong rate. Comparatively, this season, Pavano’s change has only incited grounders just 39.3% - meaning opponents are squaring up on his secondary pitch. What’s more is that in 2011 he was able to get a swing-and-miss on 27% when opponents swung but that has declined to 15% in 2012. As I speculated following his first start, the decrease in his fastball’s velocity was going to adversely affect his change-up as the speed differential closes. Baseball Info Solutions’ pitch charting states that while his fastball is down (from 89 to 86 miles per hour) his change’s top speed has also decreased (from 80 to 78 miles per hour). This means the differential has not been that substantial at all. Pitch F/X, on the other hand, shows that Pavano’s vertical movement on his change is quite different. As I discussed in my analysis of Jason Marquis at Twins Daily on Wednesday, research has shown that the optimal place to get the most ground balls is between 0.0 inches and 3.0. The previous two seasons, his changeup had a vertical finish of 2.0 and 2.7, meaning it was down in the zone. This season it is up to 3.8. In laymen’s terms, Pavano’s changeup has been up in the zone more frequently therefore resulting in fewer grounders and swing-and-misses on that particular pitch. Another factor that might explain the in-season drop in grounders and missed bats is the sudden disappearance of his slider. According to Pitch F/X data, in his first four starts he threw his slider 45 times (11% overall). In his last four starts, he threw it just 8 times (3% overall). His sore shoulder, his inability to get extension and a lack of feel for the pitches may contribute to why he has not spotted his changeup well and why he has ignored his slider as of late. Will the rest and rehab approach prove to be fruitful? Answers will be provided on Saturday when Pavano makes his regularly scheduled start in Milwaukee. Attention should be paid not only to the radar gun readings but also to the performance of his off-speed pitches. Click here to view the article