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Everything posted by Parker Hageman
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To clarify, the vertical drop measurement isn't in inches directly -- take a look at this chart below: http://fastballs.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/typical_spin_deflection2.jpg Most sinkers don't actually "sink" (just like rising fastballs don't "rise"). They fall at a greater rate than fastballs and typically run more horizontally. This is where most sinkers (two-seamers) fall on the pitch f/x scale -- above 0. That's the horizontal line. Masterson's sinker on the other hand, falls below that line.
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By now you are aware that the Minnesota Twins have some level of interest in free agent pitcher Justin Masterson. The big-bodied Masterson is an ideal rebound candidate -- he is only 30 years old, he has big ground ball numbers, solid strikeout rates, averaged 199 innings per season from 2010 to 2013 while working 6.2 innings per start, big BABIP numbers are primed for regression and so on. You know, all the stuff that made Phil Hughes so amazing. On the other hand, because of his delivery and repertoire, he has never fared well against left-handed opponents and he had some shoulder ailments at the end of the 2014 season. The Twins front office will tell you that they are doing due diligence on all the available options, not just Masterson. Beyond the reasons above, here is a more in-depth look at what to expect from him in 2015.Masterson Is Just Another Nick Blackburn, Right? Twins fans probably think of the last few seasons of Nick Blackburn when they think of sinkerball pitchers. Or Carlos Silva. Or, more current, Kyle Gibson. That is not Justin Masterson. Masterson’s sinker is a sight to behold. When looking at the raw Pitch F/X numbers which tells you how much it moved vertically, you will find that he is in rarified company. Of all pitchers who amassed 20 starts in 2014, only Masterson’s sinker fell in the negative numbers in terms of inches dropped at -0.4. This is a number reserved for the submarining sidearmer relievers. On average, the league’s sinkerballers held a 4.3-inch vertical change. That seems impressive, right? For those of you who glazed over when all those meaningless numbers made an appearance: In layman’s terms, Masterson’s sinker shares similar downward movement usually reserved for curveballs only with fastball velocity. Still not convinced? Look at this example from Grantland posted earlier this year: http://giant.gfycat.com/AnimatedInsecureAustralianshelduck.gif What creates this action is both the grip and the delivery that differ from your standard sinkerball pitcher. Whereas most sinker pitchers use a two-seam fastball grip with a three-quarter arm slot delivery which generates more run than sink, Masterson’s grip is slightly different. “It’s nothing too extreme,” Masterson told MLB Network’s analyst and former pitcher Dan Plesac on the 30-for-30 program a few spring trainings ago. “I hold it on the ends [of my fingers] and kinda got my thumb on the side.” What it looks like is a modified version of the two-seamer only with added pressure on the sides from his thumb. Download attachment: Masterson_Grip.png The next factor related to the movement is the release. Compared to someone like Gibson (whose sinker has a career 5.9-inch vertical change), Masterson’s fingers are almost underneath the pitch at the release point -- not behind the ball and driving it towards the plate like Gibson: Download attachment: Masterson-Gibson-Release.png With this grip and release enhanced by the arm slot of a sidewinding slinger, it is easy to see why since 2009 Masterson has a 59% ground ball rate, a 7.8% swinging strike rate (compared to the league-average of 5.5% on the pitch), and a 43.6% in-play rate (the best among sinkerballers in that time). OK. Sure, yeah. But Masterson Was Terrible In 2014. Explain That, Nerd. Yes. Very much so. With a lower velocity and a greater amount of measurable movement in his sinker, hitters were not fooled by Masterson’s favorite pitch in 2014. “Sometimes you get a huge break [on the sinker] but it’s early and hitters can see that,” he said on MLB Network. “But sometimes it tightens up but it's that lateness and that’s what you really want to see.” Masterson’s sinker -- which had long been susceptible to left-handed bats -- was being splattered by right-handed ones as well. Heading into 2014, opponents had posted a line of .279/.357/.388 with a 59% ground ball rate while averaging a velocity of 91.7 but he was able to hump it up into the upper-90s over the five previous seasons. This last year his sinker was pounded to the tune of .333/.442/.525 but with an improved 64% ground ball rate as his velocity dipped to 88.7 and he was barely able to crest 94 at maximum speed. His command of the pitch disappeared. He was walking more with his sinker than he was striking out. In order to locate it better, Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway said he tried to ease off the gas. "The problem," Callaway said told reporters in early April, "is what he was doing mechanically, and then trying to ease up and throw strikes with his two seamer, it kind of compounded everything and made it worse. He probably should've taken the other route, drive some four-seamers in there, something that doesn't move and work off that.” But later in April, following a few more starts, it became apparent that the velocity on the four-seamer that Callaway really wanted Masterson to mix in never arrived. In 2013, he threw 235 pitches 95 miles an hour or above. In 2014, he reached that plateau just once. “He can’t find that four-seam velocity that he had last year,” Callaway told the media at the end of that month. “I wouldn’t say he’s reinventing himself, he’s just playing the cards that he’s been dealt." As the season wore on, Masterson copped to an injury to his right knee that sidelined him for the bulk of June. Masterson later told people that the knee injury had affected his mechanics to the point of reducing his velocity and command. So What. When the Twins requested Masterson’s medical records, as sources claim, the primary focus could be on the health of his right knee. Following the season with the Cardinals, St. Louis’ general manager John Mozeliak said that Masterson told the team that he regretted not speaking out earlier about his ailments. Masterson’s knee injuries created issues with his mechanics, something the entire state of Missouri attempted to pinpoint on video. As Masterson told the Post-Dispatch there were various recommendations from all sources: he needed to refine his balance point, he needed to drive instead of drop, he needed to stay tall, he needed to keep his front knee closed and so on. All of these suggestions could conceivably help with his sinker command, but only one is aimed at regaining his velocity -- driving off that back leg. Consider these examples which are indicative of the larger collection of video on Masterson. In 2012 when facing the Detroit Tigers, Masterson demonstrates a great amount of exertion and torque off of his back leg when driving towards home plate. This helps generate the high 90s velocity: http://i.imgur.com/B8Fy1RT.gif Meanwhile while in his first start with St. Louis, Masterson merely falls forward off of his back leg. There is little drive or engagement from his back leg. http://i.imgur.com/ZG7A3tx.gif An MRI in September revealed impingement in his right shoulder, which was given a cortisone shot. This could be related to the mechanical flaw seen in the last video. Certainly this type of delivery would place added stress on his arm and shoulder. The question is, to what extent? Wrap This Up Please. We know what Masterson can be. He can be a quality starter who provides 200-ish innings with elite worm-burning skills and that could translate to approximately two wins above replacement (as he was in each season between 2010 and 2013). All of which is possible if he can curb the walks and regain his velocity. That appears contingent on his injuries. If it is just the knee -- and that heals this offseason -- there is no reason to think he cannot rebound to where he was prior to 2014. After all, he will be just 30 years old in 2015. On the other hand, if trying to pitch through a knee injury exacerbated his arm problems beyond what is known, there may be struggles ahead. Still, medical records should shed light on that and provide confidence one way or the other. After turning down a large multi-year contract from the Indians, reportedly seeking $17M per year, Masterson figures to be aiming for a make-good contract. Unless his medical records say otherwise, he should be able to make-good. Click here to view the article
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Masterson Is Just Another Nick Blackburn, Right? Twins fans probably think of the last few seasons of Nick Blackburn when they think of sinkerball pitchers. Or Carlos Silva. Or, more current, Kyle Gibson. That is not Justin Masterson. Masterson’s sinker is a sight to behold. When looking at the raw Pitch F/X numbers which tells you how much it moved vertically, you will find that he is in rarified company. Of all pitchers who amassed 20 starts in 2014, only Masterson’s sinker fell in the negative numbers in terms of inches dropped at -0.4. This is a number reserved for the submarining sidearmer relievers. On average, the league’s sinkerballers held a 4.3-inch vertical change. That seems impressive, right? For those of you who glazed over when all those meaningless numbers made an appearance: In layman’s terms, Masterson’s sinker shares similar downward movement usually reserved for curveballs only with fastball velocity. Still not convinced? Look at this example from Grantland posted earlier this year: http://giant.gfycat.com/AnimatedInsecureAustralianshelduck.gif What creates this action is both the grip and the delivery that differ from your standard sinkerball pitcher. Whereas most sinker pitchers use a two-seam fastball grip with a three-quarter arm slot delivery which generates more run than sink, Masterson’s grip is slightly different. “It’s nothing too extreme,” Masterson told MLB Network’s analyst and former pitcher Dan Plesac on the 30-for-30 program a few spring trainings ago. “I hold it on the ends [of my fingers] and kinda got my thumb on the side.” What it looks like is a modified version of the two-seamer only with added pressure on the sides from his thumb. The next factor related to the movement is the release. Compared to someone like Gibson (whose sinker has a career 5.9-inch vertical change), Masterson’s fingers are almost underneath the pitch at the release point -- not behind the ball and driving it towards the plate like Gibson: With this grip and release enhanced by the arm slot of a sidewinding slinger, it is easy to see why since 2009 Masterson has a 59% ground ball rate, a 7.8% swinging strike rate (compared to the league-average of 5.5% on the pitch), and a 43.6% in-play rate (the best among sinkerballers in that time). OK. Sure, yeah. But Masterson Was Terrible In 2014. Explain That, Nerd. Yes. Very much so. With a lower velocity and a greater amount of measurable movement in his sinker, hitters were not fooled by Masterson’s favorite pitch in 2014. “Sometimes you get a huge break [on the sinker] but it’s early and hitters can see that,” he said on MLB Network. “But sometimes it tightens up but it's that lateness and that’s what you really want to see.” Masterson’s sinker -- which had long been susceptible to left-handed bats -- was being splattered by right-handed ones as well. Heading into 2014, opponents had posted a line of .279/.357/.388 with a 59% ground ball rate while averaging a velocity of 91.7 but he was able to hump it up into the upper-90s over the five previous seasons. This last year his sinker was pounded to the tune of .333/.442/.525 but with an improved 64% ground ball rate as his velocity dipped to 88.7 and he was barely able to crest 94 at maximum speed. His command of the pitch disappeared. He was walking more with his sinker than he was striking out. In order to locate it better, Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway said he tried to ease off the gas. "The problem," Callaway said told reporters in early April, "is what he was doing mechanically, and then trying to ease up and throw strikes with his two seamer, it kind of compounded everything and made it worse. He probably should've taken the other route, drive some four-seamers in there, something that doesn't move and work off that.” But later in April, following a few more starts, it became apparent that the velocity on the four-seamer that Callaway really wanted Masterson to mix in never arrived. In 2013, he threw 235 pitches 95 miles an hour or above. In 2014, he reached that plateau just once. “He can’t find that four-seam velocity that he had last year,” Callaway told the media at the end of that month. “I wouldn’t say he’s reinventing himself, he’s just playing the cards that he’s been dealt." As the season wore on, Masterson copped to an injury to his right knee that sidelined him for the bulk of June. Masterson later told people that the knee injury had affected his mechanics to the point of reducing his velocity and command. So What. When the Twins requested Masterson’s medical records, as sources claim, the primary focus could be on the health of his right knee. Following the season with the Cardinals, St. Louis’ general manager John Mozeliak said that Masterson told the team that he regretted not speaking out earlier about his ailments. Masterson’s knee injuries created issues with his mechanics, something the entire state of Missouri attempted to pinpoint on video. As Masterson told the Post-Dispatch there were various recommendations from all sources: he needed to refine his balance point, he needed to drive instead of drop, he needed to stay tall, he needed to keep his front knee closed and so on. All of these suggestions could conceivably help with his sinker command, but only one is aimed at regaining his velocity -- driving off that back leg. Consider these examples which are indicative of the larger collection of video on Masterson. In 2012 when facing the Detroit Tigers, Masterson demonstrates a great amount of exertion and torque off of his back leg when driving towards home plate. This helps generate the high 90s velocity: http://i.imgur.com/B8Fy1RT.gif Meanwhile while in his first start with St. Louis, Masterson merely falls forward off of his back leg. There is little drive or engagement from his back leg. http://i.imgur.com/ZG7A3tx.gif An MRI in September revealed impingement in his right shoulder, which was given a cortisone shot. This could be related to the mechanical flaw seen in the last video. Certainly this type of delivery would place added stress on his arm and shoulder. The question is, to what extent? Wrap This Up Please. We know what Masterson can be. He can be a quality starter who provides 200-ish innings with elite worm-burning skills and that could translate to approximately two wins above replacement (as he was in each season between 2010 and 2013). All of which is possible if he can curb the walks and regain his velocity. That appears contingent on his injuries. If it is just the knee -- and that heals this offseason -- there is no reason to think he cannot rebound to where he was prior to 2014. After all, he will be just 30 years old in 2015. On the other hand, if trying to pitch through a knee injury exacerbated his arm problems beyond what is known, there may be struggles ahead. Still, medical records should shed light on that and provide confidence one way or the other. After turning down a large multi-year contract from the Indians, reportedly seeking $17M per year, Masterson figures to be aiming for a make-good contract. Unless his medical records say otherwise, he should be able to make-good.
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Article: On Twins Pitching and Philosophy
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For starters, the chart you are showing is ALL pitches and not just fastballs. The reason his RAA is higher up in the zone is because -- dating back to 2009 -- he was susceptible allowing home runs on balls up in the zone (21 fastballs up/6 fastballs down). However, he was much better at getting outs on fastballs up (70.5% OUT%) compared to fastballs down (59.7% OUT%). In terms of his fastball, I will reiterate that he has performed very well: From 2009 on opponents hit .227 and struck out on 24% of their plate appearances while facing fastballs up in the zone against Baker. On the other hand, they batted .288 with strikeouts on 11% of their plate appearances on fastballs down. His success was found just below the letters.- 34 replies
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Article: On Twins Pitching and Philosophy
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes, the common belief passed down is that low-and-away is the best fastball location, but it's not -- up-and-in is the best at creating outs: down/away: .254 avg/711 OPS -- 3.8% swinging strike up/in: .197 avg/658 OPS -- 8.9% swinging strike. The biggest difference is the tendency to allow home runs -- down/away: 0.6% vs up/in 2.4% -- which I think pitchers/coaches error far too cautious on. The problem with down/away is that that location diminishes Effective Velocity: "Escobar's stuff was about as good as it gets," he said. "But at the time I did the study, the league was hitting his fastball combo at a .369 clip. If movement is everything for a pitcher, this guy should have been a world-beater. But if movement is so important, why was he getting killed? "It turned out that he was throwing 97 down and away, which is about 92 EV. Then he throws the cutter to lefties at 92, and the sinker down and in, at about 91. He's throwing all his pitches within 2 or 3 mph of each other [in EV terms], and he's neutralizing all the effects. Even though the movement is there, it's killing him. Guys are getting ready for one pitch at one speed, and receiving two bonus pitches at the same speed. He was throwing pitches that moved right into hitters' bats, even if they were guessing wrong." Had Escobar reversed himself, he could have created a spread of up to 16 mph utilizing exactly the same pitches. Husband paused for a moment, and sighed. So, no, down and at the knees is not the optimal location for a fastball. Now just below that zone outside of the strike zone is a solid location: http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/assets/4631875/EVchart.png It is good to hear that somewhere in the organization pitchers are working on going up in the zone.- 34 replies
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Article: On Twins Pitching and Philosophy
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No, this was not meant to disparage Anderson. It was meant to highlight the mentality that the organization has for fastballs down in the zone. All of the things he listed are fine and are what made him a solid pitching coach. The difference is the game, in terms of fastballs and how offenses have developed, have changed.- 34 replies
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The Minnesota Twins are starting to reassemble their coaching staff after blowing up the group after the 2014 season. At least one position was filled when the decision was made to retain hitting coach Tom Brunansky. Brunansky absorbs all of the data and analytics but has the ability to translate that into a practice his hitters can understand and take into a game. Now, hiring a pitching coach that would operate in the same guise as Brunansky would be ideal.Pitching has been a significant issue for the organization as the team floundered its way to four consecutive 90-loss seasons. Although replacement-level personnel has played a significant factor in the pitching results, the Twins have failed to adapt to the changes in the game around them. And part of that may be sourced back to former pitching coach Rick Anderson. In 2008, Anderson provided a scouting report of his young pitching staff that emphasized keeping the ball down in the zone. Specifically, for Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker, Anderson said keeping the fastball down was critical for success. In 2010, Anderson reiterated this belief. But Anderson was not alone in his assessment. On almost every broadcast, FSN and former pitcher Bert Blyleven would echo this as well. However, at least in Baker’s case, the inverse was actually true. From 2009 on, opponents hit .227 and struck out on 24% of their plate appearances while facing fastballs up in the zone against Baker. On the other hand, they batted .288 with strikeouts on 11% of their plate appearances on fastballs down. His success was found just below the letters. For Anderson and Blyleven, the mantra of shooting the knees and maintaining a downward plane may have been true during their era of pitching but the game has evolved beyond the notion that you have to live down in the zone with your fastball to survive. In fact, it is more detrimental if you do. While the rest of baseball was fawning over ground ball pitchers, the Oakland A’s ran the other direction and loaded their lineups with hitters who exhibit fly ball tendencies and uppercut swings -- a practice that would combat the downward action of sinkers and two-seam fastballs which live down in the zone. With that method, it is probably no surprise to learn that the A’s led baseball in hardest hit fastballs down in the zone (.212 hard-hit average) and put 26% in play as fly balls (well above the league average of 21%). Meanwhile, this uppercutting offense struggled to generate power on fastballs up in the zone, slugging just .293 -- the lowest in the American League. And it is not just Oakland that is having more success versus fastballs down in the zone compared to those left up. This past year the league batted .216/.331/.344 on fastballs above the waist while they managed a superior .283/.387/.409 on fastballs from mid-thigh and below. There are various reasons for this outcome. The first being a tenet of a Perry Husband’s theory of Effective Velocity. The reason why hitters often say a pitcher’s high fastball seemed to have more giddyup is because, as Husband’s research suggests, a hitter’s bat needs to travel further to make contact -- particularly up-and-in and middle-up above the strike zone. By locating a fastball properly, a pitcher’s heater can gain 1-to-5 miles an hour of Effective Velocity. While the majority of the baseball world was teaching downward plane, the UCLA Bruins found success in the NCAA by going up in the zone. Most notably, with current Cleveland Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer and then with Adam Plutko later in 2013. The Bruins pitchers aimed for what they call the “one spot” -- an elevated letter-high fastball out over the plate -- visiting that location in two-strike counts. "It’s why [former Mets starter] Sid Fernandez had success,” current Astros pitching coach Brett Strom told Husband. “Everybody wants a 6'5 guy, but hitters have been conditioned for ages for a ball to be in a certain spot, from a downward plane. Fernandez sat really deep on his back leg and had a low release point. Hitters couldn’t adjust." The second reason is the increase in the number of pitchers trained to work downhill. As a response, more hitters are conditioned to look for pitches down in the zone. For instance, Husband studied Mike Trout’s data closely and found that the superstar did not chase after fastballs up in the zone. It would appear that Trout, who can typically hit everything, at anytime and pitched anywhere, knew his limitations. Mariners pitcher Chris Young, a soft-tossing right-hander, told Fangraphs.com’s Enos Sarris the reason he works up in the zone more frequently despite the low velocity is because hitters have adapted to low fastballs. “You can look across the board and see that pitching up can be just as effective as pitching down, maybe moreso,” he said. “Hitting is cyclical. I’ve given up plenty of home runs on low balls. Hitters are very good low ball hitters now, too.” Like Young, Oakland’s closer Sean Doolittle adjusted his approach after video scouting revealed that opponents were jumping all over his fastball down in the zone. He ditched that for fastballs above the belt. "As long as most guys have been teaching pitching, you want to live at the knees and then maybe expand up with two strikes," Doolittle said. "But I've had more success throwing pitches up in the zone." The benefits of pitching down in the zone include a higher percentage of ground balls, but using a fastball up in the zone leads to more fly balls and infield pop-ups that are converted into outs more often than grounders. Are more home runs allowed on pitches up in the zone? Slightly. In 2014, 2.5% of all at-bats on fastballs up in the zone resulted in a home run compared to 2.0% of at-bats that resulted in a home run on pitches down in the zone. That said, hitters swing and miss on 11% of fastballs up in the zone while they do so on just 4% of fastballs down. Lower batting average, higher out-percentage and a better opportunity to miss bats certainly makes this an intriguing idea. Not every pitcher is designed to be a high-ball pitcher, to be sure. Pitchers like Kyle Gibson, who has a power sinker, is not likely to suddenly become a pitcher who targets the top of the strike zone. That said, pitching up in the zone shouldn’t be treated like a problem either, particularly while developing pitchers in the minor leagues. Heading into the 2014 season, Twins farm director Brad Steil made this statement regarding Trevor May: “For him to get better, it's going to be pitching down in the zone with his fastball. When he gets in trouble, he leaves the ball up above the belt. He's just got to make sure he's staying on top of the ball and pitching down in the zone. If he does that, he'll see results." Contrary to what Steil said, when May reached the major leagues he saw better results on his fastball when it was above the belt. Opponents hit .182 with 11/6 strikeouts/walks against his high fastball compared to a .313 average with a 7/9 strikeouts/walks when pitching the fastball down in the zone. Both are small sample sizes yet there may be something there. After all, Baker and Phil Hughes have had success while almost exclusively using high fastballs. If he is able to command it May might be better off using the upper reaches of the zone. To be clear, effective pitching is not just throwing fastballs up in the zone. It is proper sequencing, changing speed and locating pitches. Still, the game has shifted away from the idea that you have to throw fastballs down in the zone. The Twins have been criticized for not thinking differently and maintaining practices that have proven ineffective as the rest of the game has evolved around them. The new hire has the opportunity to make these philosophical and practical changes that can improve the team. Click here to view the article
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Pitching has been a significant issue for the organization as the team floundered its way to four consecutive 90-loss seasons. Although replacement-level personnel has played a significant factor in the pitching results, the Twins have failed to adapt to the changes in the game around them. And part of that may be sourced back to former pitching coach Rick Anderson. In 2008, Anderson provided a scouting report of his young pitching staff that emphasized keeping the ball down in the zone. Specifically, for Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker, Anderson said keeping the fastball down was critical for success. In 2010, Anderson reiterated this belief. But Anderson was not alone in his assessment. On almost every broadcast, FSN and former pitcher Bert Blyleven would echo this as well. However, at least in Baker’s case, the inverse was actually true. From 2009 on, opponents hit .227 and struck out on 24% of their plate appearances while facing fastballs up in the zone against Baker. On the other hand, they batted .288 with strikeouts on 11% of their plate appearances on fastballs down. His success was found just below the letters. For Anderson and Blyleven, the mantra of shooting the knees and maintaining a downward plane may have been true during their era of pitching but the game has evolved beyond the notion that you have to live down in the zone with your fastball to survive. In fact, it is more detrimental if you do. While the rest of baseball was fawning over ground ball pitchers, the Oakland A’s ran the other direction and loaded their lineups with hitters who exhibit fly ball tendencies and uppercut swings -- a practice that would combat the downward action of sinkers and two-seam fastballs which live down in the zone. With that method, it is probably no surprise to learn that the A’s led baseball in hardest hit fastballs down in the zone (.212 hard-hit average) and put 26% in play as fly balls (well above the league average of 21%). Meanwhile, this uppercutting offense struggled to generate power on fastballs up in the zone, slugging just .293 -- the lowest in the American League. And it is not just Oakland that is having more success versus fastballs down in the zone compared to those left up. This past year the league batted .216/.331/.344 on fastballs above the waist while they managed a superior .283/.387/.409 on fastballs from mid-thigh and below. There are various reasons for this outcome. The first being a tenet of a Perry Husband’s theory of Effective Velocity. The reason why hitters often say a pitcher’s high fastball seemed to have more giddyup is because, as Husband’s research suggests, a hitter’s bat needs to travel further to make contact -- particularly up-and-in and middle-up above the strike zone. By locating a fastball properly, a pitcher’s heater can gain 1-to-5 miles an hour of Effective Velocity. While the majority of the baseball world was teaching downward plane, the UCLA Bruins found success in the NCAA by going up in the zone. Most notably, with current Cleveland Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer and then with Adam Plutko later in 2013. The Bruins pitchers aimed for what they call the “one spot” -- an elevated letter-high fastball out over the plate -- visiting that location in two-strike counts. "It’s why [former Mets starter] Sid Fernandez had success,” current Astros pitching coach Brett Strom told Husband. “Everybody wants a 6'5 guy, but hitters have been conditioned for ages for a ball to be in a certain spot, from a downward plane. Fernandez sat really deep on his back leg and had a low release point. Hitters couldn’t adjust." The second reason is the increase in the number of pitchers trained to work downhill. As a response, more hitters are conditioned to look for pitches down in the zone. For instance, Husband studied Mike Trout’s data closely and found that the superstar did not chase after fastballs up in the zone. It would appear that Trout, who can typically hit everything, at anytime and pitched anywhere, knew his limitations. Mariners pitcher Chris Young, a soft-tossing right-hander, told Fangraphs.com’s Enos Sarris the reason he works up in the zone more frequently despite the low velocity is because hitters have adapted to low fastballs. “You can look across the board and see that pitching up can be just as effective as pitching down, maybe moreso,” he said. “Hitting is cyclical. I’ve given up plenty of home runs on low balls. Hitters are very good low ball hitters now, too.” Like Young, Oakland’s closer Sean Doolittle adjusted his approach after video scouting revealed that opponents were jumping all over his fastball down in the zone. He ditched that for fastballs above the belt. "As long as most guys have been teaching pitching, you want to live at the knees and then maybe expand up with two strikes," Doolittle said. "But I've had more success throwing pitches up in the zone." The benefits of pitching down in the zone include a higher percentage of ground balls, but using a fastball up in the zone leads to more fly balls and infield pop-ups that are converted into outs more often than grounders. Are more home runs allowed on pitches up in the zone? Slightly. In 2014, 2.5% of all at-bats on fastballs up in the zone resulted in a home run compared to 2.0% of at-bats that resulted in a home run on pitches down in the zone. That said, hitters swing and miss on 11% of fastballs up in the zone while they do so on just 4% of fastballs down. Lower batting average, higher out-percentage and a better opportunity to miss bats certainly makes this an intriguing idea. Not every pitcher is designed to be a high-ball pitcher, to be sure. Pitchers like Kyle Gibson, who has a power sinker, is not likely to suddenly become a pitcher who targets the top of the strike zone. That said, pitching up in the zone shouldn’t be treated like a problem either, particularly while developing pitchers in the minor leagues. Heading into the 2014 season, Twins farm director Brad Steil made this statement regarding Trevor May: “For him to get better, it's going to be pitching down in the zone with his fastball. When he gets in trouble, he leaves the ball up above the belt. He's just got to make sure he's staying on top of the ball and pitching down in the zone. If he does that, he'll see results." Contrary to what Steil said, when May reached the major leagues he saw better results on his fastball when it was above the belt. Opponents hit .182 with 11/6 strikeouts/walks against his high fastball compared to a .313 average with a 7/9 strikeouts/walks when pitching the fastball down in the zone. Both are small sample sizes yet there may be something there. After all, Baker and Phil Hughes have had success while almost exclusively using high fastballs. If he is able to command it May might be better off using the upper reaches of the zone. To be clear, effective pitching is not just throwing fastballs up in the zone. It is proper sequencing, changing speed and locating pitches. Still, the game has shifted away from the idea that you have to throw fastballs down in the zone. The Twins have been criticized for not thinking differently and maintaining practices that have proven ineffective as the rest of the game has evolved around them. The new hire has the opportunity to make these philosophical and practical changes that can improve the team.
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On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss Parker's findings from his research on Brian Dozier's ability to swipe bases. Is it possible with help from MLB's StatCast system, sliding could wind up being the next pitch framing stat? Listen below.Other topics include apologizing for technical difficulties, reminiscing about NFL Blitz, thoughts on and Mallrats. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #29: RUN DOZIER RUN Be sure to watch our latest video promo, : Click here to view the article
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Other topics include apologizing for technical difficulties, reminiscing about NFL Blitz, thoughts on and Mallrats. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #29: RUN DOZIER RUN Be sure to watch our latest video promo, : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IwtDuCJSyc&feature=youtu.be
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Article: How Much Has Molitor Helped?
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes, yes I was. If you read my stuff for a while you would find that I like to pepper in things like that to keep the reader on their toes. I do a lot of stat breakdowns and want to keep things light. Definitely enjoyed your Mollie/Bruno back-and-forth. Thanks.- 19 replies
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Article: How Much Has Molitor Helped?
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sure, that's one area that he's been involved in but his position was a baserunning coach. Here's more on his involvement in regards to shifts: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/twins-research-team-wont-tip-their-pitches-r3131 When I asked Ryan about the baserunning stats and if he felt Molitor added to that, he agreed but also credited Joe Vavra among others as well. He felt that the personnel (Dozier, Mauer) helped those numbers this year.- 19 replies
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Many words have been dedicated to Paul Molitor’s baseball genius since his official press conference. Players have lined up to offer anecdotes that show how differently and intensely the Minnesota Twins’ new manager sees the game. He rolled balls down the baselines to see how a bunt will break. He pulls grass out and lets it dance in the wind to see which way the ball will carry for the outfielders. He tastes a handful of dirt so the infielders will know if there will be bad hops. In short, as a coach he has been a ball guy to the core.Molitor’s main role in 2014 was as a baserunning coach. Sure, he aligned defenses and added an analytic flair to the process but his job was to improve the movement on the bases. Judging from raw numbers, the Twins made strides in this area. They went from first-to-third more often, they moved up bases on outs and they stole more bases. Of all the personnel on the team from 2013 to 2014, Brian Dozier has most credited Molitor with making significant improvements to his running game. In terms of stolen bases, Dozier not only increased his number of steals but also posted a higher success rate. Based on that, I ran through video of stolen base attempts hoping to find unquestionable evidence of Molitor’s influence in Dozier’s game. Like suicidal leads or telepathic jumps the moment the pitcher twitches a muscle. Any video confirmation that Molitor’s tutelage helped the second baseman swindle seven more bags in 2014. Alas, there was nothing concrete that said that since Molitor’s addition to the staff, Dozier started doing this differently and added more steals. This is not to say that Molitor did not add some improvement to Dozier’s running game -- it is simply more of an effect that cannot be picked up from the three dozen or so clips of Dozier stealing available at MLBAM. Once StatCast is made ready to the general population we may be able to decipher if he is getting better jumps but for now the available data reveals little difference in his run game. The results are not related to a re-engineering of his mechanics, apparently, but rather an increase in his level of preparedness. "It's been night and day compared to every other year, as far as dissecting pitchers, knowing exactly what they do, their tendencies, stuff like that,” Dozier told FoxSportsNorth.com’s Tyler Mason in May of this year. “[Molitor] has a five, 10-minute conversation with me before every game and every single thing that he's got on film from the pitcher, tendencies, everything." Last year, Dozier did increase the number of attempts to steal third which often came against infields that were shifting against left-handed batters. After making a break for third three times in his first two seasons, Dozier bolted for the hot corner six times this year. Was that game plan created by Molitor -- or was Dozier just savvier in his third year when he perpetrated those thefts? Beyond the pitchers, Molitor would also check out the environment. Each stadium’s infield cut is slightly different at first base. Some have big swooping cuts like Target Field while others like Oakland’s O.co Coliseum have small cutouts. In some cases, even one foot past the cut would be borderline insanity while in others two feet past the cut would still be a step-and-dive away from first. Before each game, Molitor would help establish where a runner’s lead should be. “The cut on the grass at first base is different at every park,” Dozier told the Star Tribune’s Chip Scoggins after Molitor was introduced as the new manager. “He would get his lead and then visualize where that cut on the grass is right beneath his feet. So he would know the cut of the grass is at my right foot in a 14-foot lead. He would say, ‘OK, this is where my lead is tonight.’” This advice may be able to provide a player like Dozier -- whose speed is not at the level of the Dodgers’ Dee Gordon or the Phillies’ Ben Revere -- an advantage that could provide a handful of successful stolen base attempts in a seasons. Another element of his run game that is probably overlooked is his ability to execute a terrific slide. One thing that will stand out when reviewing Brian Dozier’s stolen base attempts of second base is that he rarely beats the throw to the base. Take this example of his successful swipe of second against the Indians in 2012. The throw beats him by a significant margin but because of his ability to stay to the outside with his body and keep his left hand in until the last second, Dozier gives shortstop Asdrubel Cabrera a minimal target. http://i.imgur.com/5lInWHQ.gif Yes, it may seem minor but when you review the film you see that Dozier’s head-first sliding abilities likely landed him several bases in the process. Against the Padres this year, Dozier may have “stolen” a base away from the National League West team by using misdirection by sliding far right of the base and slipping his hand in under. This leaves shortstop Jedd Gyorko who has the ball well in advance of Dozier to choose between tagging his hand or his body. Gyorko splits the difference and aims for the shoulder, allowing Dozier to slide his hand underneath. http://i.imgur.com/SvWKyBT.gif Since Dozier’s been implementing this slide since his rookie season (and possibly in the minor leagues as well), it is hard to attribute it directly to Molitor. It is possible that he helped refine it while Dozier was in the minors but it is not something created since Molitor was added to the coaching staff. Comparing Dozier’s slide tactics to those of the game’s top base-stealers in Gordon (below) and the Astros’ Jose Altuve, you find that those fleet-of-foot individuals prefer the feet-first slide into second. Their speed in conjunction with getting good jumps allows them to beat many throws to the base and the feet-first slide gives them the ability to pop up and scamper to third if there happens to be an errant throw: http://i.imgur.com/M7tNJCQ.gif To see how much Dozier’s slide can help his numbers, consider the case of Chicago’s Adam Eaton. In 2014, Eaton swiped 15 bases in 24 attempts, a lower success rate than Dozier. Eaton, by most accounts, is faster than Dozier. According to Fangraphs.com’s Fan Scouting Reports, Eaton has scored a 79 speed score over his career. Dozier, meanwhile, is at 60 with his speed score. Eaton has good instincts and a good first step. But, unlike Dozier’s ballet around the base, Eaton is a bulldozer of a slider. While using the head-first slide, Eaton goes in direct and hard at the bag. On several occasions this has helped dislodge the ball but on others it has aided the opposing team by sliding directly into the tag: http://i.imgur.com/BO7wdb9.gif What this boils down to is Dozier doing the little things to provide himself with an opportunity to gain 90 feet on the bases. It is knowing the pitcher, understanding the surroundings and executing a Ghostrider slide. How much of this is Molitor’s influence? That’s hard to say. Dozier spoke of how much Molitor prepared him and the team which has to add some factor. Clearly Molitor has had some influence when it comes to improving the running game, but how much and in what capacity is not known. Click here to view the article
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Molitor’s main role in 2014 was as a baserunning coach. Sure, he aligned defenses and added an analytic flair to the process but his job was to improve the movement on the bases. Judging from raw numbers, the Twins made strides in this area. They went from first-to-third more often, they moved up bases on outs and they stole more bases. Of all the personnel on the team from 2013 to 2014, Brian Dozier has most credited Molitor with making significant improvements to his running game. In terms of stolen bases, Dozier not only increased his number of steals but also posted a higher success rate. Based on that, I ran through video of stolen base attempts hoping to find unquestionable evidence of Molitor’s influence in Dozier’s game. Like suicidal leads or telepathic jumps the moment the pitcher twitches a muscle. Any video confirmation that Molitor’s tutelage helped the second baseman swindle seven more bags in 2014. Alas, there was nothing concrete that said that since Molitor’s addition to the staff, Dozier started doing this differently and added more steals. This is not to say that Molitor did not add some improvement to Dozier’s running game -- it is simply more of an effect that cannot be picked up from the three dozen or so clips of Dozier stealing available at MLBAM. Once StatCast is made ready to the general population we may be able to decipher if he is getting better jumps but for now the available data reveals little difference in his run game. The results are not related to a re-engineering of his mechanics, apparently, but rather an increase in his level of preparedness. "It's been night and day compared to every other year, as far as dissecting pitchers, knowing exactly what they do, their tendencies, stuff like that,” Dozier told FoxSportsNorth.com’s Tyler Mason in May of this year. “[Molitor] has a five, 10-minute conversation with me before every game and every single thing that he's got on film from the pitcher, tendencies, everything." Last year, Dozier did increase the number of attempts to steal third which often came against infields that were shifting against left-handed batters. After making a break for third three times in his first two seasons, Dozier bolted for the hot corner six times this year. Was that game plan created by Molitor -- or was Dozier just savvier in his third year when he perpetrated those thefts? Beyond the pitchers, Molitor would also check out the environment. Each stadium’s infield cut is slightly different at first base. Some have big swooping cuts like Target Field while others like Oakland’s O.co Coliseum have small cutouts. In some cases, even one foot past the cut would be borderline insanity while in others two feet past the cut would still be a step-and-dive away from first. Before each game, Molitor would help establish where a runner’s lead should be. “The cut on the grass at first base is different at every park,” Dozier told the Star Tribune’s Chip Scoggins after Molitor was introduced as the new manager. “He would get his lead and then visualize where that cut on the grass is right beneath his feet. So he would know the cut of the grass is at my right foot in a 14-foot lead. He would say, ‘OK, this is where my lead is tonight.’” This advice may be able to provide a player like Dozier -- whose speed is not at the level of the Dodgers’ Dee Gordon or the Phillies’ Ben Revere -- an advantage that could provide a handful of successful stolen base attempts in a seasons. Another element of his run game that is probably overlooked is his ability to execute a terrific slide. One thing that will stand out when reviewing Brian Dozier’s stolen base attempts of second base is that he rarely beats the throw to the base. Take this example of his successful swipe of second against the Indians in 2012. The throw beats him by a significant margin but because of his ability to stay to the outside with his body and keep his left hand in until the last second, Dozier gives shortstop Asdrubel Cabrera a minimal target. http://i.imgur.com/5lInWHQ.gif Yes, it may seem minor but when you review the film you see that Dozier’s head-first sliding abilities likely landed him several bases in the process. Against the Padres this year, Dozier may have “stolen” a base away from the National League West team by using misdirection by sliding far right of the base and slipping his hand in under. This leaves shortstop Jedd Gyorko who has the ball well in advance of Dozier to choose between tagging his hand or his body. Gyorko splits the difference and aims for the shoulder, allowing Dozier to slide his hand underneath. http://i.imgur.com/SvWKyBT.gif Since Dozier’s been implementing this slide since his rookie season (and possibly in the minor leagues as well), it is hard to attribute it directly to Molitor. It is possible that he helped refine it while Dozier was in the minors but it is not something created since Molitor was added to the coaching staff. Comparing Dozier’s slide tactics to those of the game’s top base-stealers in Gordon (below) and the Astros’ Jose Altuve, you find that those fleet-of-foot individuals prefer the feet-first slide into second. Their speed in conjunction with getting good jumps allows them to beat many throws to the base and the feet-first slide gives them the ability to pop up and scamper to third if there happens to be an errant throw: http://i.imgur.com/M7tNJCQ.gif To see how much Dozier’s slide can help his numbers, consider the case of Chicago’s Adam Eaton. In 2014, Eaton swiped 15 bases in 24 attempts, a lower success rate than Dozier. Eaton, by most accounts, is faster than Dozier. According to Fangraphs.com’s Fan Scouting Reports, Eaton has scored a 79 speed score over his career. Dozier, meanwhile, is at 60 with his speed score. Eaton has good instincts and a good first step. But, unlike Dozier’s ballet around the base, Eaton is a bulldozer of a slider. While using the head-first slide, Eaton goes in direct and hard at the bag. On several occasions this has helped dislodge the ball but on others it has aided the opposing team by sliding directly into the tag: http://i.imgur.com/BO7wdb9.gif What this boils down to is Dozier doing the little things to provide himself with an opportunity to gain 90 feet on the bases. It is knowing the pitcher, understanding the surroundings and executing a Ghostrider slide. How much of this is Molitor’s influence? That’s hard to say. Dozier spoke of how much Molitor prepared him and the team which has to add some factor. Clearly Molitor has had some influence when it comes to improving the running game, but how much and in what capacity is not known.
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On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman talk about the Minnesota Twins' announcement of the new managerial hiring, Paul Molitor. Listen below.Other topics include revisiting the Dave St. Peter interview, the blueprints from the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Dan freaks out about a super-secret Gophers basketball scrimmage and Vanilla Ice. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #28: PAUL MOLITOR [/b] Click here to view the article
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Other topics include revisiting the Dave St. Peter interview, the blueprints from the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Dan freaks out about a super-secret Gophers basketball scrimmage and Vanilla Ice. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #28: PAUL MOLITOR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5uSda00iwA
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This is a very well phrased question. I wish it had been available prior to the Q&A. Not to sound like a broken record but please listen to the podcast section of the show -- http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/podcasts/no-juice-podcast-27-dave-st-peter-r3169 -- where he talks about other areas of the organization beyond the 48-52% the money is spent. As confession -- there are more people here that are concerned about the distribution of the revenue/payroll that I am. I don't know if we have a lot of accountants by trade here, fiscal watchdogs or just passionate fans that feel wronged in some way by the ownership. Personally, I care more about player development. I'm interested/intrigued by payroll/revenues/state of baseball, but ultimately I am more interested in what happens on the field. That probably comes out in both your Q&A and my interview on the podcast with him. I ask the big picture questions about revenue/payroll but I don't have the desire to pound on the topic until he spills everything. Again, the question above would have been great. Probably would have generated a decent response. I'm sorry if some of you don't feel like you've received your monies worth on this one.
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He talked about the 50% mark, he talked about the alternative revenue streams and the areas that the other section of revenue is spent on. You're not going to get specifics. You just won't. Private company, they won't give it out. Should I have asked the Forbes estimate question? Maybe. Just didn't find it that compelling at the time given the length we spent on payroll, revenue and the like.
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We did cover a lot of revenue/payroll discussion during our podcast prior to the video interview so many of those questions were dropped to avoid redundancy. I transcribed some of the audio/answers from the podcast portion of this event. Check it out here: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/podcasts/no-juice-podcast-27-dave-st-peter-r3169
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Article: No Juice Podcast #27: Dave St. Peter
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You got plans tonight? Actually, we might. Thanks for the suggestion. -
Again, the questions were provided by everyone in the forums. You had the chance to provide that type of question, and it does not look like you did (there were plenty of good questions in the article section left only after we recorded). I'd recommend both listening to the podcast version of this show which we asked different questions (http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/podcasts/no-juice-podcast-27-dave-st-peter-r3169) or purchasing the Offseason Handbook in which Terry Ryan talked about the process of hiring a manager (http://twinsdaily.com/store/product/4-2015-minnesota-twins-offseason-handbook/) . In terms of payroll and spending, I don't know what more you want from the front office. We're never going to get everything. In multiple conversations with different people within the organization, I don't have any reason to believe they are lying/misleading anyone. Also: #TWSS
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I'm forgetting if he said this in the video or our podcast portion (both are different so listen/watch both!) but St. Peter mentioned that they put other monies into the facilities in Florida, a new facility in the DR in the works and a few other upgrades. That's where *some* of the other 50% goes, I guess.

