Parker Hageman

Nobody said "scared". I think what Plouffe is conveying (in addition to the framing stats) is that some catchers like Molina can make hitters feel uncomfortable. I like how 'Sconnie put it above: I think the conversation from the hitter's perspective is ready to be had. Would love to hear more players like Plouffe share their thoughts.

I mean...

Trevor Plouffe’s last few days have likely been a rollercoaster. After a forearm injury sidelined him for the rest of the 2014 season with just a few games to go, he was initially told he would not require surgery for repair. A trip to the Mayo Clinic confirmed that he would indeed require surgery to fix the arm. Then the only manager he has known with the Twins was let go and he raced across town (running two red lights) only to give his support following Ron Gardenhire’s exit interview at Target Field. That’s quite a lot going through his head. Another interesting thought going through his head lately was the effects of catcher framing.Prompted by a stat on the subject provided by ESPN’s Stats & Info overseer Mark Simon, Plouffe inquired whether or not Rays’ catcher Jose Molina the leading catcher in coaxing extra strikes from outside the strike zone: Download attachment: Plouffe2.png Plouffe’s intuition was close -- according to ESPN/TruMedia Molina finished just behind Ross -- but it was actually the Angels’ Hank Conger whose 11.6% called strike rate on pitches outside of the zone led baseball this year. This exercise always interests me: Players using their experience to guess what the data says. Plouffe has stood in with Molina behind the dish for 48 pitches in his career. Of those he has taken, six have been called strikes that have been out of the zone (16%). This is slightly higher than average (approximately 9%) but too small of a sampling to make any connection. Now, Plouffe was never rung up on any out-of-zone strikes looking, still, if you are Plouffe in the batters box, you might recall those few pitches with clarity. That said, Molina has had his way with the Twins lineup dating back to 2010 and Plouffe certainly has observed a lot of his teammates shaking their heads on the way back to the dugout. In 16 games, he’s managed to steal strikes out of the zone at a 14% clip, which is the highest rate for a catcher facing the Twins in that time. Beyond that, the lineup has had just over 500 plate appearances while he has been the receiver and have hit just .207 -- the lowest average against by one catcher in that time (minimum 300 plate appearances). There is plenty of discussion on whether or not framing adds the win value that some believe, but there is little question that it is a skill (just ask my ). “I don’t put too much stock in that,” Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki told me this spring. “Don’t get me wrong, I think that has a lot to do with it but at the same time, what a pitcher does has a lot to do with it. If he’s all over the place, he’s obviously not going to get those borderline calls, not matter how good you make it look. If you are around the plate consistently, you are going to get those calls. There’s definitely an art to it, you look at the Molinas, they are pretty good at what they do.” Plouffe and Suzuki are correct, the Molinas are pretty good. He has also had some pretty good pitchers throwing to him as well. For the most part, framing is always presented from the pitcher/catcher perspective but it is interesting to see that it may be possible that the catcher can have a psychological effect on a hitter. So does that mean that catchers like Molina while expanding the strike zone for their pitcher are able to induce more chases by the hitters attempting to protect this increasing strike zone? According to ESPN’s data, Molina’s chase percentage is exactly league average dating back to 2010 (26.5%) which indicates that despite the ability to grab strikes off the plate, hitters are not necessarily enticed to go after those pitches at a higher rate. Fans and analysts alike can continue to debate the catcher’s unseen effects on the game but it is interesting to find out that, at least in the case of Trevor Plouffe, the backstop can get inside a hitter’s head. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins make it official: Ron Gardenhire is out as manager."You lose this many games, you got to do something," the Twins' manager of 13-years told the Pioneer Press this afternoon after news broke. "[Terry Ryan] called me in this morning, I said, 'Terry, you don't have a choice here; do what you have to do." Before noon, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweeted that the Twins may be looking to move on from manager Ron Gardenhire this afternoon saying "Just heard the word is not good on #twins manager Ron Gardenhire, but I'm trying to get confirmation on that." Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN's Patrick Reusse followed that up by confirming that Gardenhire is out. In addition to Gardenhire, the Star Tribune's LaVelle Neal reports that the entire coaching staff is being let go but will likely have the opportunity to be re-hired if the new manager deems fit. Gardenhire finishes his Twins career with four straight 90-loss season but had led the team to six postseason berths in his 13-year tenure as the manager of the team. The organization will have a press conference at 3 PM to address the news. Ron Gardenhire will be in attendance. One key member of the front office will not be there is owner Jim Pohlad who 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson reports is currently in Texas at the on-going estate-tax trial. Here is the Twins press release: Besides winning Manager of the Year in 2010, Gardenhire finished in the top three in voting in seven of his thirteen years as Twins manager, with five runner-up finishes. He didn't have his first losing season as a manager until 2007, in his sixth year as manager. He din't have his second losing year until 2011, his tenth year as manager. But in the history of baseball, only two managers have survived four consecutive 90-loss seasons, although one of them was Gardenhire's predecessor, Tom Kelly, who was retained by Twins GM Terry Ryan. Click here to view the article

Absolutely. He's got terrific stories and such a positive guy. Could have stayed there and chatted all night if he didn't kick us out.

In this week's No Juice Podcast episode, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the week's Minnesota Twins talkers and interview former minor leaguer Jamie Ogden. Topics include the future of the coaching staff, Vance Worley's success, Derek Jeter's final game in the Bronx, and framing 100 mile per hour fastballs. Listen and watch below.Other topics include Up North Weddings and general sports banter. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #23: THAT'S A WRAP AND JAMIE OGDEN Click here to view the article

Knowing what/where the pitch was going helped a lot. The machine can throw just about any type of pitch at basically any speed. We got a warm-up round at 85-mph and Jamie was kind enough to provide Dan with an unannounced curveball that that left him bailing out and skittish for the rest of the night. Hitting 100 when a pitcher is able to unleash another type of pitch must be damn near impossible.

Earlier in the week, Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson showed you what it looked like to try to pitch frame a 100-mph fastball. Today, they try to hit it.According to ESPN/TruMedia, in the Major Leagues this year there have 821 fastballs thrown over 100 miles an hour -- with Cincinnati’s closer Aroldis Chapman firing the bulk of them. The results have been understandably poor as hitters have batted just .144 off the triple digit heat. Professional hitters have swung and missed on 36% of their swings. So, with that in mind, what are the odds that two yahoos from the town leagues can even get a piece of the heat? Ever wonder if you could make contact with a 100-mile per hour fastball? Line Drive Sports in Lino Lakes and Killebrew Root Beer have created the Killebrew 100 MPH Challenge that supports the Assist2Play.org foundation. Contact Line Drive Sports to set up your challenge today. Special thanks to former Twins minor league Jamie Ogden for providing the instructions and spiritual support. Click here to view the article

Catcher Framing has been the statistic that has been all the rage -- it is the sooper popular thing right now among stat nerds. Catchers who previously were undervalued, like Rene Rivera or Jose Molina, are suddenly highly sought after when studies showed that some catchers could coax extra strikes from out of the zone. Meanwhile, backstops like Ryan Doumit have become dinosaurs. How difficult is it to corral a 100 mile per hour pitch?It is possible that velocity plays a difference in how a catcher receives the ball or how an umpire gauges it. According to ESPN, since 2009, 9% of balls taken out of the zone that were 99 MPH or below were called strikes. In that same time, 7% of all pitches thrown 100 MPH or above and taken out of the zone were called strikes. Is it more difficult to frame pitches at that velocity or does the speed play a bigger factor? With average fastball velocity from major league pitcher’s climbing each year, this could play a factor in the coming years. Thanks to former Twins minor leaguer Jamie Odgen and Line Drive Sports in Lino Lakes, the No Juice Podcast’s Dan Anderson’s shows just how difficult it is to catch and frame 100 mile per hour heat. [NOTE: Some adult language] For more on this subject and others, be sure to listen to this week’s No Juice Podcast. Click here to view the article

In this week's No Juice Podcast episode, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the week's Minnesota Twins talkers. Topics include shutting down Glen Perkins for the year, the shift from New Britain to Chattanooga, thoughts on Danny Santana at short and #HotTwinsTakes from the Twins Daily forum from members Mike Wants Wins and jaimedude2. Listen below.Other topics include the Minnesota Vikings, things Minnesotans need to stop doing, the best compensated Minnesotan athletes and college football at the FargoDome. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #22: ALL OUT OF GLENS Click here to view the article

Update on Glen: That's good-ish news.

This should be interesting.

1st half: 40.8% overall fly ball% 2nd half: 40.4% overall fly ball% *From ESPN/TruMedia In hitters' counts -- where he hit 7 first-half home runs -- he is seeing slightly fewer fastballs and hitting fewer fly balls (from 53% to 44%) from the first-half to the second.

Agreed. In theory, there are two things happening. The season-long velocity decline is aging while the recent trend of not being able to finish his slider is injury related. To the former, it is of concern but not damning. As you said, he had been very good. Different approach, but good. If he continues to trend like Fangraphs.com show that relievers experience, there is going to be a decline in production over the next few seasons. After all -- a 92-to-95 mph fastball is turned into a hit more frequently than the 96+. More 92-to-95 = more hits. More hits = more runs. I guess we'll see after the winter where he is at. Hopefully, whatever is ailing his arm right now, is something that rest will resolve.

I wish I could always be as positive as you, Seth! I unfortunately look at too much data. In all, I think he will be "fine". The recent struggles with the slider appear to be influenced by the neck/shoulder. More concerning, as shown in the chart, his velocity has been down all season -- not just at the end. The hope is that the velocity loss is effected by the lingering neck/shoulder issue and that will rebound after an offseason of rest. If not, and it is indeed the effects of aging, we will still see a very good Perkins, just not the shutdown one from 2012-2013.

For most of 2014 it was business as usual for Minnesota Twins closer Glen Perkins. His numbers have been very similar to his previous two seasons. Yes, there were subtle changes -- like he has struck out batters at a slightly lower rate (declined from 32% to 26%) and he also shaved off free passes (reducing his walk rate from 6.3% to 4.3%) but you would have to squint to pick up the differences.The latter statistic is a point of pride for the closer. “I know that I want to avoid home runs, strike guys out and not walk guys,” Perkins told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger in August. “If I can do that, and maybe even get a groundball, and even that it's that important to me as not walking a guy and those things. As long as I don't walk guys and don't give up home runs, I know I'm doing the right thing.” But while he has limited the walks, he has been hit hard as of late -- allowing a home run in each of his last three outings -- and even raising concerns that there may be an injury in play. He told reporters that he was unable to finish his slider which even prompted an MRI of his shoulder to see if there was any damage. No damage was found but the location of his sliders since August -- which have led to three home runs -- shows that something is not right: Download attachment: Perkins Slider.png In addition to his slider, there is also concern for his fastball. According to the Pioneer Press, an unnamed scout had watched Perkins’ September 4th outing and said that his “velocity was down a tick”. While it is more noticeable as he has scuffled as of late, Perkins’ fastball has been “down a tick” almost all season. When the left-hander was converted to a reliever, he saw his average fastball velocity increase considerably from his days as a starter with the Twins. In 2011, he was averaging 93.9 but touched 98 several times. In 2012 and 2013, he was averaging 94.9 and throwing his fastball above 96 on a semi-regular basis. This season however Perkins has not had that same gas on the pitch that he had in 2012 and 2013. Just four of the 604 fastballs he has thrown this season were measured at 96 miles per hour or above: Download attachment: Perkins Velocity.png Despite the drop in velocity, Perkins’ fastball has not been a liability this season. Yes, it has been turned into hits more frequently partly due to a higher line drive rate than past years but according to ESPN/TruMedia’s Hard Hit Average, it has not been hit that hard. Beyond that, Perkins has shown a better ability to locate his fastball in the strike zone -- he has his career highest in-zone percentage (59.6%) and tied his highest strike rate (70%). So the higher batting average on his fastball could be a product of attacking the strike zone and avoiding walks. Still, this precipitous dip in velocity could be of concern for the front office with $17.25 million remaining to be paid to the closer. At 31 years old, Perkins is near the age where relievers start to experience a decline in their velocity, which also correlates to fewer strikeouts: The difference for relievers who throw 92-to-95 or 96-to-98 is significant. This year, hitters are batting .267/.347/.412 with a 9.1% swinging strike rate on fastballs that range from 92-to-95. From 96-to-98, hitters have been less successful posting a .230/.305/.326 line with a 11.4% swinging strike rate. Being able to throw 96-plus is a definite advantage. If it is an injury that has been acting as a governor for Perkins’ fastball, the good news is the year is almost finished. If it is age that is inhibiting his velocity, that is a different story. Click here to view the article

In this week's No Juice Podcast episode, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the improvement of Trevor May, what Doug Mientkiewicz might bring to the table as a manager and the struggles of top prospects. They also lob #HotTakes when addressing forum posts from Twins Daily community members Boom Boom and James Richter.Other topics include the fallout of the recent Adrian Peterson news, the loss to the New England Patriots and the NFL's secret security team. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #21: VEGAS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST Click here to view the article