Parker Hageman

Nick Blackburn’s greatest redeeming quality is his ability to consume innings. Unfortunately, for the past two consecutive seasons, he has not come close to proving his worth in this department. When he was not sidelined by injuries, Blackburn pitched on either side of the spectrum for the Twins. One month - like May 2011 where he went 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 42 innings pitched - he would be dazzling, using his sinker effectively and keeping opponents off-balanced. The next month – like July in which he went 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 29 innings – he’d have fallen apart and was beaten senseless across the field. Naturally, injuries played a significant role in his bi-polar performances and helps explain his decline to some degree. But Blackburn has come into camp healthier following his second-straight offseason with an elbow procedure and, according to the Pioneer Press’sTom Powers, he has made a series of adjustments that they hope will improve his numbers against right-handed hitters: Shifting on the rubber is not an uncommon practice among pitchers. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast found that some premier pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all made in-season adjustments by shifting their starting point. In their cases, all three hurlers moved to the first base side of the rubber. By shifting to the middle, Blackburn is hoping to add a bit of deception to his repertoire to combat right-handed foes. And the changes are completely necessary for Blackie. Over the past two seasons, right-handers have feasted on his offerings. In 2010, they hit a robust .318/.352/.485 in 345 plate appearances. Those totals increased this past season when they hit .316/.362/.507 in 318 plate appearances. This is starkly different from his results pre-2010 when he last threw his slider successfully. While hiding the ball longer may improve his marks, having a secondary pitch such as his slider would likely go further towards curbing righties. Keep in mind that spring training is a time where promises are often made and the regular season is where they are not kept. Last year, Jose Mijares received glowing reviews about his new two-seamer. That did not exactly pan out for the big lefty. As the spring progresses, be sure to monitor how Blackburn fares against same-sided opponents. Click here to view the article

La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg This is now the third edition of the year-end mishmash that is the Twins at a statistical glace: It was the Year of the Strikeout for pitchers in baseball and more than any team the Twins hitters were their greatest victims. The offense saw strike three 1,430 times – a new franchise record. That 1,430 finish represents the third-highest team total since 1961. Only the 2013 Houston Astros (1,535) and the 2010 Diamondbacks (1,529) have finished with more strikeouts than the 2013 Twins. When the Twins did get runners on base, they managed to bring that runner in [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]just 12% of the time – tying them for the worst baserunner scored percentage (shared with Seattle, Miami and Chicago Cubs). The obvious reason for the lack of production was the lineup’s inability to gather hits with runners in scoring position. The Twins .225 batting average with runners in scoring position was the lowest in the American League and the second-lowest in baseball. They also led the league in strikeouts with runners in scoring position (407). For the first time in his career, Joe Mauer was Average Joe when it came to his strikeout rate. After many years of finishing well below the norm, Mauer finished 2013 (albeit prematurely) with a strikeout once every five at-bats (MLB average 5.0). Joe Mauer had the third-highest line drive rate at 27.7%. Trevor Plouffe wasn’t far behind at 24.7%. One difference between the two is while Mauer finished with a .717 batting average on his liners, well above the league average of .657, while Plouffe held a .667 batting average on his liners. A bigger difference was that Mauer hit .238 on his fly balls in play while Plouffe hit just .066. The Twins did not run much on the bases this year, attempting just 85 stolen bases. It was for the best that they didn’t try for more as their 61% stolen base success rate (52 for 85) represented the second-lowest total in the game. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks (60%) were worse at base thievery. Both were well below the league average of 73%. Pedro Florimon finished the year with 15 swipes to lead the team. That was the lowest team-leading total since Kirby Puckett took 14 bases to lead the 1984 club in steals. Oswaldo Arcia led all American League rookies with 14 home runs. With a .339 second-half slugging percentage, Trevor Plouffe finished in the bottom-25 in slugging among qualified hitters in the second-half. Brian Dozier hit 18 home runs on the year, giving him the Twins’ second base home run title after he surpassed notable sluggers like Rod Carew (14, 1975) and Tim Tuefel (14, 1984). Splitsville, man. Dozier also was a manimal against left-handed pitching. His weighted On-Base Average against lefties was .421, the eighth-highest in the game. Of course, Dozier’s .288 wOBA against righties was the 11th lowest in the game. Aaron Hicks’ rookie season was one of the poorest performances by a center fielder in Twins history. Ranking by weighted On-Base Average, Hicks’ .266 wOBA was just slightly better than former Twin Ted Uhlaender’s .256 wOBA season in 1966. Oh, and Hicks’ eventual replacement, Clete Thomas, fared no better as he was the team’s third-worst offensive performer in center with a .270 wOBA. The Twins were very good at avoiding hitting into double plays. In 1,149 double play opportunities, they banged into the two-for-one just 103 times. That 9 percent rate was the lowest in baseball. The Twins outfield was tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for most outfield assists (44). Aaron Hicks led the team with nine while Clete Thomas and Chris Parmelee had six each. While the fielding percentage was one of the game’s best at .991, Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus statistic says the outfield unit at minus 53 runs was the worst group in baseball. If you ascribe to the theory that 10 runs equals one win, the outfield could have cost the team a little over five wins. The Twins shored up the shortstop position defensively as they finished second among all teams in the Plus/Minus statistic at plus 19. Pedro Florimon was third in baseball at plus 12 just behind Pittsburgh’s Clint Barmes (plus 13) and Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons (plus 37!!!). After his abysmal 2012 campaign at third, Trevor Plouffe actually completed the year in the black according to Plus/Minus: plus 1. In an era of unbridled strikeout totals, the Twins pitching staff broke the mold. The league’s 36,710 strikeouts were the most in baseball history. Yet the Twins eschewed that and rang up just 985 – the only staff in the league to not crack 1,000 strikeouts. That strikeout mark was 24% below the league average. Isolating just the starting rotation, the Twins front five were exceptionally bad at being able to miss bats. Their 477 strikeouts were the fourth lowest total in the past 10 years. Only the Royals (470 in ’05 and 463 in ’06) and the Tigers (422 in ’03) completed their seasons with fewer K’s. There’s a running joke on Twitter that involving Glen Perkins and Bruce Springsteen’s description of a fastball as a “speedball” (see: #speedball). Unlike the Boss’s description, the Twins do not have many pitchers who can “throw that speedball by you” but Perkins, however, has been one example of a Twins guy who does have a speedball that he can throw by you. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value metric, Perkins’ fastball has been worth 16.7 runs above average on the year – the second-highest among all relievers. (Perkins also holds the third-highest average fastball velocity among all qualified left-handed relievers. At 94.9, Perk will need to add some MPHs to catch up to the Reds’ hard-throwing southpaw Aroldis Chapman, who pumps heat at 98.3.) Just a few spots below Perkins in the fastball pitch value is bullpen buddy Anthony Swarzak. This Sasquatch loving right-hander’s heater is 12.4 runs above the average (9th highest). Perhaps nobody noticed because of the team’s overall record, but Swarzak’s second-half was outstanding (37.2 innings, 1.91 ERA, 5 extra base hits and a decent 28-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio) compared to his first-half output (58.1 innings, 3.55 ERA, 16 extra base hits and a 41-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Swarzak’s 96 innings pitched was the most in baseball among relievers. It was the most innings thrown by a reliever since Scott Proctor threw 102.1 with the Yankees in 2006. That was also the most among Twins relievers since Juan Berenguer’s 100.1 innings in 1990. ** Thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the numbers. Click here to view the article

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical. Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010. Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million. Download attachment: Zumaya_Velocity.jpg As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment. After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape. Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012. If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season. This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: target-field-28.jpg When asked how he feels that the outsider perception of the Twins’ use of statistical analysis is behind the rest of the game, Jack Goin, the team’s Manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, simply replied “That’s fine.” Goin cites the St. Louis Cardinals as an example of how he wants his operations to be viewed. Whereas teams like Tampa, Cleveland, Boston and New York have been well-known and forthright about their endeavors into the statistical world, the Cardinals have been extremely stealth yet very much active in research. If it were up to him, he would just as rather have people continuing to overlook the team while they continue to improve. Over the last decade, the Minnesota Twins have developed a reputation of being an organization run on scouting or traditional ways. Just three years ago, the team’s assistant general manager, Rob Antony, acknowledged that the organization – born of harden scouts like Terry Ryan and Mike Radcliff – had been more focused on the traditional way of thinking. Stats, analysis and research were ignored. Goin would be given the difficult task of providing analysis to decision-makers who have, by and large, been resistant to the analysis. The truth is, Goin says, they view themselves as a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to using statistical analysis. There are the overachievers, there are a few on the bottom and the rest, like the Twins, reside somewhere in between. One way in which they have progressed in just a few shorts years is that Goin has turned to MLBAM’s Pitch F/X system – a relative unknown to the staff as recently has 2010 – when attempting to analyze potential free agent pitchers. “We’ll use it to decipher,” Goin said. “You get the scouting grades, let’s say, so you get the scouting grade and [the scout] puts a 5 on the curveball. So we go in and look at it and if the guy has been in the big leagues, now we can see maybe the curve is a little better than a 5 or maybe it is a little worse than a 5 or maybe it is right on based on rankings among other pitchers.” Goin and a dedicated full-time intern have used Pitch F/X to evaluate specific pitchers, a need that has no doubt grown exponentially with the Twins’ overwhelming need for serviceable arms. This offseason alone the team has added three pitchers to the rotation, all of which were likely examined in some capacity with Pitch F/X data. “We used it just a few weeks ago on a free agent pitcher we were looking at. We were talking about his sinker and trying to figure out what’s going on with it. He had been injured the last few years and we were trying to figure out where that sinker is in terms of when it was really good and where it is now. So we looked at it and tried to figure out how much vertical break was on it and how much horizontal break was on it and tried to distinguish some of the contact rates.” For those versed in Pitch F/X understand what the levels of break translate to can relate to what Goin is attempting to accomplish in his research. This is standard analysis that can be found regularly on sites like Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com and even on TwinsDaily.com. While this may seem like a rudimentary use of the information, making groundbreaking conclusions based on the data is not necessarily the object of even the front-running organizations. In 2009 interview, Tampa Bay Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said that the challenge for teams using Pitch F/X is not finding new knowledge but rather using the system and data correctly to supplement existing evaluation tools. Trying to explain the intricacies of the data to life-long ball guys and what it means can be overwhelming, so Goin keeps it simple. Rather than inundate the organization’s decision-makers with vertical break figures or horizontal movement rates from the system, he simply uses it to levy an opinion as a scout would – perhaps with a greater advantage. Where a scout is able to pick up on mechanics, positioning other elements that cannot be captured with data alone, Pitch F/X can help provide a greater picture of how a pitcher’s “stuff” is working or not working over the course of a season. “Scouts gets [a pitcher] for one day. A major league [scout] gets them for four starts – or twenty-to-thirty innings. Who knows what happened in those four starts? Guys will tell you that they have 10 really good starts, 10 really bad ones and the rest fall in between. We try to verify or bring up questions to think about.” Because of the ability to capture and track with accuracy a limitless amount of pitches, Goin has expressed interest in affixing Pitch F/X cameras through the team’s affiliates to better capture their prospects’ developments. Of course, the cost of installation and an annual fee for having the system may prohibit this from becoming a reality. Going beyond Pitch F/X, Goin uses statistics and data to help uncover players found at the margins of the game – the Clete Thomases and Darin Mastroiannis of the world – whom the Twins can pick up through waivers. Additionally, he and his intern are integral in the process of identifying candidates in other organizations that could eventually get included in a trade. “We try to find not a hidden guy but a lesser known guy – someone not on all the prospect lists, maybe not on the scout’s radar for whatever reason it might be,” says Goin. “You try to find another guy we might at least talk about because when you are trying to make a trade, it’s not the easiest thing in the world to do. You get turned down a bunch before someone says ‘yes.’ You have to come up with multiple names.” Since his promotion to the newly-created position in 2011, Goin believes the team has made progress improving the research department – including implementing some medical tests provided to players in hopes of creating a baseline and understanding injuries better. If there has been one area of the game in which a team can quickly create a competitive advantage, it is being able to prevent or limit injuries. Still, the description of the working of Twins’ research department sounds quaint in comparison to some of the other organization’s efforts where extensive studies are conducted and a significant investment is made by the team in personnel and a support staff. In Houston, Luhnow created an entire department titled “Decision Sciences” run by Sig Mejdal, who, like Luhnow, was hired away from the Cardinals. They also added leading Pitch F/X analyst Mike Fast, who spends a portion of his day creating models and databases for the major league and farm system. Whereas teams like Tampa Bay, whose inner workings were well-documented in Jonah Keri’s book The Extra 2%, and Houston have aggressively beefed up their research departments the past few years, the Twins’ find themselves somewhere in the middle with the majority of teams in the game’s research-oriented revolution. Other teams too are embracing this philosophy and expanding their research departments – like the Kansas City Royals who appeared to be one of the non-stats teams just a few short years ago as well. This is a fact that does not seem to be missed on Goin and the lack of manpower is the biggest barrier for the Twins to do those types of analysis. “That’s definitely where the game is going. Sometimes it is a budgetary thing, sometimes it is getting the people who make the decisions to believe this is what we need to do.” Click here to view the article

For three straight years now, the Minnesota Twins have been forced into tapping one of their position players to take the mound late in a blowout game. In 2011, it was Michael Cuddyer. Last season, the honors went to Drew Butera. This year's position player was veteran infielder Jamey Carroll. Had Aaron Hicks remained on the roster, he might have been the obvious position player to be called in for mop-up duty considering he was a talented high school pitcher throwing in the mid-90s and multiple teams viewed him as a pitcher at the time of the draft. Nevertheless, Carroll retired his opponents with guile and not heat. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Carroll's nine-pitch eighth inning was not a thing of beauty, but it worked. He retired three consecutive Royals hitters and did not use anything resembling a fastball. MLB.com's PitchF/X system charted all his offerings as either a changeup or a knuckleball -- both reasonable assumptions for pitches thrown under 80 miles an hour. The St Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino tweeted after the game that Carroll had not pitched at any level since his Babe Ruth League days as a fifteen-year-old. I’m guessing the velocity has not changed much since then. How does Carroll's outing compare to Cuddyer and Butera's? Download attachment: Playerpitchers.PNG You have to wonder if Carroll’s grotesque fingers gave him an unfair advantage to be able toput additional movement on each pitch that a normal, healthy-handed pitcher would not. Sort of like Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown. Download attachment: CarrollKnuckles.jpg Click here to view the article

What was interesting about Justin Morneau’s second home run of the game yesterday (and the walk-off winner which John Bonnes detailed here) is that it happened to be just his third home run he has hit which was thrown over 90 miles per hour this year. On his second homer of the year back on April 18, he turned on a 91.7 mile an hour Hiroki Kuroda fastball. On July 6, he redirected a 96-mile an hour Tanner Scheppers fastball into the Rangers Ballpark stands. Yesterday’s walk off that came on Vinnie Pestano’s 91 mile an hour fastball marked just the third time this year that he’s managed to put a 90+ fastball into the seats. In 2009, when Morneau was a sure-fire MVP candidate before missing the last month of the year, 14 of his 30 home runs came on fastballs over 90 miles an hour. In 2008, eight of his 23 came on fastballs over 90 miles an hour. Now, just three of his 19 home runs have touched that velocity. The tendency may be to associate this with his concussion, however, during the 2010 season Morneau hit just two of his 18 home runs on 90+ fastballs as well. Perhaps it is a byproduct of aging, or the injured wrist, shoulder or other ailment. Consider his hitting zone against the fastball in the first half compared to the second half of the year: Download attachment: MorneauvFastball.JPG With the green-to-red colors representing the greater production, Morneau’s second-half performance (depicted on the right) shows that he has much better zone coverage against fastballs. Take note of the dramatic difference between his first-half production (left) when being thrown inside in comparison to the second-half (right), in which he was handling the inside fastball far better. Independent of what leaves the park, Morneau’s performance against fastballs overall has improved as the season has gone on. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gibson.jpg Robot umpires now? You wouldn’t blame Kyle Gibson for wanting them. A recent Wall Street Journal article took an in-depth look at Major League Baseball’s strike zone and found that some teams have benefited from an expanded zone while others suffered from shrinkage. Brian Costa consulted with the locally-owned Inside Edge, a Minneapolis-based company[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] that specializes in harvesting video data for teams to use, and IE’s evaluating system combined with the MLB Pitchf/x system showed that an average of nearly 9% of all pitches were called incorrectly. While the definition of the strike zone is quite clear, the human element influences the outcome of the calls during the game. Writes Costa: Among all the teams, Inside Edge’s data shows that the Twins have been the most wrongly discriminated against when it came to pitches inside the zone that were called balls this season. Just 44.3% of botched pitch calls that were missed were deemed favorable to the Twins. Has this negatively impacted the Twins 2013 season? As Costa’s points out, the Milwaukee Brewers, who at 55.3% have the highest amount of wrongly called pitches go in their favor, have nearly as bad of a record as the Twins. So it appears that even if the Twins had all the calls go their way, it still would not have changed the overall record much. What is interesting is that the Twins pitchers have an overall decent amount of strike zone presence. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x data, the Twins pitching staff has the second-highest amount of zone presence at 50.7%. Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s data suggests that Kyle Gibson has been one unlucky fellow – getting just 79.2% of in-zone pitches called a strike. Before you pick up your pitchforks remember Gibson’s in-zone percentage is one of the lowest in the game at 41.9%. Gibson’s chaotic nature combined with his rookie status may have made it difficult for umpires to side with him on his borderline pitches. However, there may have been another factor that influenced his poor strike percentage. While we all have seen the stories and data on Ryan Doumit’s framing issues, but Gibson was spared from having Doumit as his batterymate. Instead, Gibson has drawn Mauer for eight of his 10 starts. While Mauer has been proven to be an excellent receiver when it came to coaxing a call on the high strike, his ability to do the same with a pitch down in the zone was extremely poor. (As suggested in the WSJ piece, it may be due to his large stature which blocks out some umpires.) As a sinkerball pitcher, Gibson works down in the zone with that and a biting slider. With Mauer’s tendency of turning a low strike into a ball, it is no surprise to see a high amount of Gibson’s low pitches being called balls. Download attachment: Gibson_Zone.png Gibson, a ground ball pitcher by trade, had his problems further exacerbated, beyond the strike zone, by the percent of grounders turned into hits – his .333 batting average of grounders was nearly 40% higher than the league average. Armed with a solid repertoire, Gibson figures to play a substantial role in the rotation for the Twins in 2014. Click here to view the article

The front office will likely do some shopping-n-swapping to infill the rotation this winter however one member of the Twins staff who is almost certain to get an opportunity to win a role next spring is Samuel Deduno. For the most part, Deduno’s unexpected and head-scratching success has continued across his 13 starts. He has struggled to get ahead of hitters (54% first pitch strike rate compared to the 60% league average) and then falls deeper behind in the count (8% of all his plate appearances went to 3-0 counts) and ultimately loses the battle of the balls. As such, his 15% walk rate is the highest in baseball among all starters with a minimum of 70 innings pitched. Because of this, the expected Fielding Independent Pitching metric -- which takes batted ball trajectory, strikeouts and, most pertinent to Deduno, walks -- calculates him to have an earned run average closer to 4.60 rather than the 3.84 that he is currently sporting. If you were applying the standard statistical analysis to this situation, it would be easy to label the right-hander as a case ripe for regression. After all, Deduno has allowed 48 hitters on base via walk but somehow has managed to keep a high percentage of those from scoring. He has stranded nearly 80% of all base-runners which is well above the league norm of 72%. At some point, a ball chops through the infield here or a subsequent hitter manages to get one up into the jet stream to plate some runs there. Yet again, Deduno has been extremely fortunate in that respect as well. Consider this for luck: Line drives become hits approximately 73% of the time. It makes sense when you think about the trajectory and speed that causes frozen ropes to be quite hard to defend. Yet line drives from Deduno’s opponents have turned into hits just 60% of the time. Somewhere down the line, that number is surely going to regress to the mean and drive his overall batting average on balls in play – which is at a miniscule .258 right now – back closer to the league average. While regression in 2013 would be the anticipated response based upon the above two paragraphs, if you consider how little opponents have been able to actually square up on his repertoire, there could be a correlation as to why the majority of his balls put into play have been fielded. The biggest factor is his ground ball rate. At 58%, his worm-killing rate is the seventh highest among those with a minimum o f 70 innings. The next significant indicator of his ability to avoid heavy contact is his 18% infield fly ball rate. What that means is that nearly 20% of all the fly balls hit are not getting past the infield dirt. As of Thursday, only former Twin Johan Santana (19%) has been able to keep a higher percentage of flies from leaving the infield. What this statistic is indicative of is their ability to get hitters to lunge and make off-balanced contact with pitches. When first introduced to the Twins, the initial reaction was that Deduno came equipped with a fairly legit curveball. In 2007, Baseball America graded his curve a 70 on the scout’s 20-to-80 scale. In 2010 Deduno was pitching in the Rockies organization. Coming off one spring training outing as a 26-year-old manager Jim Tracy simply said “Those were paralyzing-type curveballs.” Major league hitters would likely agree with those assessments of the pitch as they have hit just .153 off of it and he has racked up 39 of his 54 strikeouts with the curve. As impressive as his curve ball has been, Deduno possesses a ridiculously underappreciated weapon in his fastball. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Pitch F/X leaderboard, Deduno’s four-seam fastball has induced the highest amount of ground balls on that pitch since the inception of Pitch F/X in 2007. Sure, it is only 403 pitches but his 68% ground ball rate on a four-seam fastball is downright unbelievable. The reason he is getting such an incredible amount of grounders is because of the sink action he has on his “crazy fastball.” Deduno’s movement on his four-seam fastball almost defies physics as four-seamers – which because of the backspin created more often tend to give the illusion of “rising” - generally have the least amount of sink among all pitches. On average, Pitch F/X says that the majority of four-seam fastballs have a vertical movement of roughly 8.60 in measured in 2009. As a rule of thumb, the higher that number, the greater the “rise” action or conversely, the lower that number, the greater the sink. To provide some perspective, the Angels’ Jared Weaver, whose fastball has been described as having “hop”, has a vertical movement of 12.23 on his fastball. On the other end of the spectrum, the Indians’ Justin Masterson, who has one of the “heavier” fastballs, has a vertical movement of 4.24. That use to be the most sink on a four-seam fastball. That is, it was until July 7 when Samuel Deduno started pitching. Deduno’s four-seam fastball has a vertical movement of 2.76. For those who are not properly geeked up by those numbers, here’s another visual: The average split-finger fastball has a vertical movement of 3.37 which means Deduno’s four-seam fastball has more vertical sink than an average split-finger fastball. Take a look at the pitch’s action in all its .gif glory: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Deduno_Fastball.gif This particular one not only sinks, but has arm side run for days as both Seattle’s Trayvon Robinson and Ryan Doumit were fooled by the late movement. Later, Doumit was at a loss in attempting to explain the movement and where it comes from. “I don’t know if it’s finger pressure or wrist angle or what it is, but he’s got a gift of natural movement on the fastball and the changeup,” said the Twins catcher. Deduno’s movement is exciting and provides explanation as to why he is out-performing his Fielding Independent Pitching figures. Hitters simply cannot square up on anything they swing at. However, if they put on a swing boycott, his inconsistent control may lead to too many free passes – beyond the point where he can continue to strand them all. This was evident in his most recent start against the White Sox where he walked five and three of those came around to score. Deduno will take the mound tonight to take on the Tigers. Watch for some of that crazy fastball movement and if he can locate it in the strike zone. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pavano.jpg Word spread on Tuesday that Carl Pavano had been re-diagnosed with a bruise on his humerus bone. Pavano, who had made two appearances with the Fort Myers Miracle in hopes of rehabbing what was assumed to be a strained shoulder, told reporters that he’s frustrated that it took several months to get the diagnosis correct but is happy that it does not require surgery to heal. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal writes that the Twins medical staff should be exonerated in the case of Pavano’s missed diagnosis. The staff teamed with specialist Dr. David Altchek, who agreed with the original diagnosis of the strained shoulder capsule, conferred with the team’s doctors thorough his rehab and saw every MRI the Twins performed on Pavano. Said Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony: Considering it will take rest and that September is fast approaching, the likelihood Pavano is seen again in a Twins uniform in 2012 is almost non-existent. [/hr]Speaking of injured pitchers, Pedro Henandez, one of two players acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, left Tuesday night’s game one batter into the third inning. Through his four starts in the Twins organization, Hernandez has thrown 17.1 innings and posted an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with opponents hitting .342 off of him. [/hr]The Twins will be summoning pitcher Liam Hendriks from Rochester for the third time this season. Hendriks’ performance between the two levels could not be any more night and day. In his 8 games with the Twins this year, he’s 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA in 38.1 innings. In Rochester, he’s made 16 starts and is 9-3 with an International League-leading 2.20 ERA in 106.1 innings pitched. So what’s the biggest difference? It’s a variety of things, Hendriks explains in his interview with MinorLeagueBall.com’s John Sickels. One glaring statistical difference is that Hendriks has not allowed the ball to leave the park in AAA in comparison to his big league stints. While in Rochester, just 3% of fly balls have become home runs whereas 12% of flies with Minnesota have resulted in dingers. [/hr]Twins second basemen are hitting .213/.270/.272 (542 OPS) collectively this year -- well below the baseball standard for the position of .254/.317/.380 (697 OPS) -- yet Ron Gardenhire is not willing to give Darin Mastroianni a trial at the keystone. Gardy told the PiPress’s John Shipley: [/hr]Twins reliever Alex Burnett is the only qualified reliever in baseball to have more walks (23) than strikeouts (22) yet, somehow, he manages to have a respectable stat line including a 3.11 ERA – thanks in part to a 74.5% left-on-base rate and a .249 batting average on balls in play. Interestingly, just five of Burnett’s 62 fly balls allowed have become hits (.082 batting average vs .228 AL fly ball average) helping suppress that batting average on balls in play. [/hr]Twins PR man, Dustin Morse, tweeted out that Ben Revere is just one stolen base shy of stealing 30 bags in consecutive seasons. If-slash-when Revere nabs his 30th of the year he will join Cesar Tovar, Rod Carew and Chuck Knoblauch as the only Twins to have accomplished that feat. [/hr]Following an 0-for-3 night at the plate – in which one plate appearance included banging into a triple play – Trevor Plouffe is now 2-for-29 (.068). [/hr]Even though he took the loss, Cole Devries left Tuesday’s game relatively unscathed considering his 2.24 home runs per nine innings was the highest rate among those with a minimum of 60 innings pitched this year. Of course, working in the O.co Coliseum whose three-year park factor for home runs is 80 (very pitcher-friendly), it takes some hard work to give up bombs in Oakland at night. Click here to view the article

Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies signed former Twin Delmon Young to an interesting one-year deal. The Phillies set parameters within the deal that stated Young needed to maintain a certain weight in order to have incentives kick in. Download attachment: Hrbek.jpg As baseball observers may have noticed, over the years, Young’s weight would ebb and flow. For instance, when the Twins acquired him from the Rays, he had slimmed down to a healthy 215 thanks to a hard regiment in 2008. That number however would balloon to 239 by September 2009. To his credit, at age 24, he dropped over thirty pounds and came into camp at 207 in 2010. That year, in which he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 home runs, was by far his best season of his career to date. That would not last as Young would add more weight the following offseason. In an interview with TwinkieTown.com prior to the 2011 season, assistant GM Rob Antony said this about his significant weight loss: Young showed up to camp in 2011 not only heavier but supposedly more muscular. Of course, he would also witness a sizeable drop in all of his stats as well that year. That’s when the Twins had enough of his poor defense and his inconsistent offensive output and traded him to Detroit for next to nothing. This past year, Young was said to have been playing at 225. On Tuesday, the Phillies’ physical showed him at 238. Young’s explanation for the fluctuation in weigh since last year was, as he says, due to “some ice cream and good luck cakes” found in the clubhouse. Perhaps the Phillies have analyzed his performance in conjunction with his weight and realize that he produces much better when he’s between a certain figure. For Philadelphia, they are saying he needs to weigh less than 230 three time and fewer than 235 pounds the final three times for him to obtain optimal production – which would then led to an additional $600,000 for him. If he could offensively replicate what he did in 2010 be worth a little over half a million? Think about it. A team with a savvy numbers-crunching staff may discover the next Moneyball breakthrough based on the scale. Young’s story is reminiscent of another former Twin – one whose shapely form now greets fans outside of Target Field. Unlike Young, Kent Hrbek’s tale originates from an era when offseason workout schedules and owner investments’ in players were not nearly as obnoxious as they are now. There was no Twitter to provide a snarky remarks about weight. And, as opposed to modern times, you could be sure there was not an internal statistical analysis department running studies on production based on optimal weight. (Not that this is done now, either.) Today, almost all players on the field seemingly have bodies like P90X background actors. Outside of Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval, there are no Pucketts, Gwynns, Kruks and Hrbeks with such impressive love handles. Even though there were more players in that era carrying a few extra pounds, Hrbek’s weight was no less of a topic of conversation among reporters. In 1984, at the young age of 24, Hrbek’s physique was compared to a local Floridian celebrity. No, not Miami Vice’s Don Johnson. Rather, it was Shamu, the nearby Sea World’s famous killer whale. Hrbek, who had entered his major league playing days at a trim 200 pounds, had gained nearly forty pounds in two years. Heading into his fourth season with the team, jokes were flying around the spring camp in Orlando. One report said that during the designated weigh-in, Hrbek stepped on the team scale and it spat out a card saying: Come back when you are alone. While that was a fabricated clubhouse talltale to give the hometown hero a good-natured ribbing behind closed doors, one player took the message public. Tinker Field, home to the Twins’ spring training until they moved to Ft Myers, was, like most low-level minor league stadiums, rung with advertising on the outfield walls. One section pimped out the nearby Sea World. Adorn with the famous killer whale, somebody taped the number “14” on the chest. (This, Hrbek later revealed in his book “Tales From The Minnesota Twins Dugout”, was the work of Mark Portugal. Pretty ballsy stuff from a guy who was a 21-year-old AA pitcher at the time.) Of course, this would not be the last his el-bees would come into question. While he weighed a reported 236 in 1984 – a year in which he finished runner-up for the AL MVP - that figured climbed to 245 in 1985. By spring camp of 1986, it would be near 250 and be the focal point of the media as the team reported to Orlando. The weight drew plenty of attention from the media but then-manager Ray Miller did not seem the least bit concerned. “Everyone has heard his weight and jumped to the conclusion that he’s gotten fat,” Miller told reporters. “But it’s not true. We had people working with him lifting weights three times a week during the offseason and he looks better than he’s ever looked. He told me for the first time he can go to the beach and take his shirt off without being embarrassed.” Miller had sent him and some teammates to work out over the winter at the University of Minnesota – which was a far more rigorous from his previously rumored offseason workouts which involved bowling once a week, one teammate joked. Hrbek’s habits were infamous. He would drink, smoke and eat in the clubhouse. Sometimes all at once. In 1988, media members enter the clubhouse post-game to find a shirtless Hrbek housing a cigarette, holding a beer in one hand and an ice cream sandwich in the other. The first baseman would dip the treat into the beer and then take a bite. He told reporters that “it softens up the ice cream. Maybe there’s some money in it. You know, like when the chocolate hits the peanut butter.” Roughly around the same time in ’88, when Twins fans showed up at the hotel they were staying at, Hrbek sat at the bar and drank beers with them. In 1991, Marty York of the Toronto Globe and Mail described Hrbek as “an obnoxious creature with a penchant for annoying those around him. Hrbek’s repertoire of chicanery has been known to include such actions as blowing cigarette smoke in the general direction of a teammate’s face.” Drinking and smoking are not patterns of a player hoping to play at an elite level for an extended period of time like, say, how a guy like Jim Thome embraced yoga to maintain flexibility at age 41. In addition to eschewing regular workouts and stretches, dieting on fatty foods, beers and Camel Lights would likely shorten any career. For Hrbek, longevity never was the goal. He went into his age-32 season in 1992 looking to silence the whispers that his ability to play at a high level. That 1992 new Hrbek campaign did not get off to a great start when he busted his shoulder in spring training, re-injuring the same shoulder he had separated diving for a ball in 1989. Observers wondered whether Hrbek may have avoided the injury -- one that occurred while trying to stretch a double into a triple -- if he were in better condition. In what would be his final season, everything started to breakdown for Hrbek. In June, a Kansas City reporter wrote up a piece which asked the question what Hrbek might be like if he focused on staying in shape: Hrbek went on to point to fellow National League chubster, John Kruk, who was leading baseball in average, as an example. “The guy’s hitting over .370,” Hrbek said. “That’s one for the fat boys.” Both Kruk and Hrbek would be out of the game before their age-35 seasons – a rather remarkable thought considering the need in the game for power-hitting left-handed designated hitters. Hrbek, however, did it on his own terms, citing his need to step away from the game and be with his family and the outdoors. "He lives in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and he wants to fish in all 10,000 of them," teammate Kirby Puckett said. "I can't blame him." In August 1994, with baseball's work stoppage looming, Hrbek decided it was time to retire. "I feel I can still hit," Hrbek told reporters at his retirement announcement. "The problem is getting there after I hit it. Hitting the ball off the wall and not being able to make it to second base, I don't like that." In the end, Hrbek was, essentially, a precursor to Park & Recreation’s Ron Swanson. He ate what he wanted, he drank, he smoked, and he avoided all that physical labor and just did not care. He enjoyed himself. That did not mean he did not take pride in his work. He was truly a naturally gifted player who took his talents as far as they could. He could hit the tar out of the ball. The problem was that it was a truncated career. Had he done more cardio, mixed in a salad, started doing yoga, maybe he could have played four more years. Maybe. With a little more attention to his physical health, it's possible that his mid-1990s could have been more fruitful. Maybe we would be discussing his Hall of Fame potential right now. Who knows? That, however, is not a part of the Hrbek ethos. He did not need the awards or the accolades. He was satisfied with two very important team awards -- a pair of World Series rings he happily flashed at his retirement press conference. He did not care about seeking more money in free agency because he wanted to play at home. He enjoyed himself, even if that meant indulging his vices in exchange for a higher salary or a longer career. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Butera.jpg On Thursday the Minnesota Twins and catcher Drew Butera avoided arbitration and agreed to a one-year, $700,000 contract, an almost assured sign that Butera will be on the roster as the team’s third backstop. Why, you ask, might the Twins invest almost a million dollars in a player who is completely expendable as the epitome of a replacement level player? Consider this: Over the past three years Butera’s OPS (.497 OPS) has been the worst in the American League and the second worst in all of baseball.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Only the Giants’ Emmanuel Burriss has had an OPS lower than Butera. This, for all intents and purposes, should be the definition of replaceable. Almost all of the rational for his retention revolves around his defensive prowess. In fact, Googling “Drew Butera” and “Defensive Prowess” pings back numerous articles using that phrase to describe him. Much like focusing on someone’s “good personality” to conceal other glaring flaws (i.e. nasty body odor, operates a baseball blog, etc), “defensive prowess” feels like a similar smokescreen to avoid stating the obvious about his bat. But how “prow” is his defense? This question is harder to answer as there is no definite measurement or widely available statistic that accurately portrays a catcher’s value based on things like game-calling, framing and/or controlling the run game. One can look at a stat like caught stealing but that tells as much of a story of a catcher’s skill has fielding percentage does a shortstop or outfield assists speak towards a right fielder. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast – now an analyst for the Houston Astros – showed the baseball world just how much value could be placed on a catcher’s framing ability. By his methods, having a catcher who can coax out a borderline strike could save 15-20 runs per season – the equivalent of one or two wins. Conversely, a bad catcher could cost their team the same amount of runs. Of course, while this data is fascinating, it is something that has not been automated by any sites to make this information publicly available so we do not know if Butera’s technique save or cost the Twins runs. One thing we do know is that Butera has a strong track record of throwing runners out. In 2011, possibly because of Carl Pavano’s disregard for the run game, the Twins paired him with Butera who has show a propensity to cutting down base-runners in his minor league career. According to his Baseball-Reference.com stats, between 2005 and 2011, he nabbed 42% of all would-be thieves. This past year, his caught stealing rate plummeted and he managed to throw out just four on the bases. In George Will’s Men At Work -- an examination of some of the game’s finer points through the eyes of the best players at the time -- teams will track a catcher’s catch-and-release time which is dubbed “pop-to-pop” time. Pop-to-pop time is a measurement used by coaches to separate good catcher arms from bad ones. This means they are stopwatching from the moment the ball hits the catcher’s glove until it smacks the middle infielder’s mitt. In the book, an unnamed coach rattles off pop-to-pop times. 1.94 seconds: Good. 2.12: That base is good as gone. 2.04: M’eh. 1.85: Nailed ‘em. Overall, the difference between being ninety feet closer to scoring a run or gaining an out is approximately one-hundredth of a second. Naturally, the ability to throw runners out is tied to the pitcher keeping the runner from breaking early. This brings me to the Twins’ trio of backstops. While theft is a shared liability with the battery mate, having a pitching staff that has total disregard for the running game reduces the effectiveness of a defensive catcher. The 2012 Twins were labeled as one of the worst at base-runner attentiveness. That said, Butera’s ability to catch and release provided this staff with the best odds of thwarting larceny. Download attachment: Catchers.PNG In an inexact study, a stopwatch has shown that over the course of five throws to second, Butera’s “pop-to-pop” time averages out to be the best: So Butera has a better arm or better footwork or a quicker release than the other two, at least in this small sample. Observationally, Butera was able to make these quick throws while handling sliders down and away on at least two of those five examples. This should not go ignored. Over the entire season, Baseball Info Solution has assigned a value on a catcher’s ability to subdue the run game. Of the Twins’ three, Butera (0) outperforms both Mauer (-3) and Doumit (-1). So, strictly speaking controlling the run game, Butera’s effect on the overall team’s performances is slightly better than Mauer and Doumit’s but minimal according to BIS. This begs the question, is being able to control the run game worth paying nearly a million for a third catcher? Someday we may have the tools to be better equipped to answer that question. For now, the Twins are committed to bringing him back – for better or worse. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Blackburn.jpg Twins announce that they will outright Nick Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka off the 40-man roster. Since being recalled from Rochester, Blackburn had made six starts only to compile a 0-4 record with an pear-shaped 6.11 ERA while opponents hit .351/.367/.576. The Twins, who had beat the drums that there would be no more "scholarships" for their players, reacted swiftly to Blackburn's struggles and recent quotes which seems to irk the front office. Clearly the Twins were not sold on Blackburn's ability to bounce back. As assistant GM Rob Antony told reporters on Saturday in Seattle: Nishioka, meanwhile, had been hitting .252/.311/.313 in the International League and was completely overmatched in his short stint with the Twins this year. The move leaves the team with 38 players on their 40-man roster. Please add comments on this story on this original thread. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Matt-Capps.jpg The Twins have reinstated reliever Matt Capps from the 15-day disabled list. Capps was placed on the disabled list on June 25 (retroactive to June 24) with right shoulder inflammation. In his two outings with the Fort Myers Miracle Capps worked two innings while striking out one against Florida State League competition. To clear room, the Twins have optioned reliever Kyle Waldrop to Rochester. In Capps' absence, the Twins have used Glen Perkins and Jared Burton as the team's closers. Perkins worked nine innings, striking out eight and walking just one while converting four of five save opportunities. Burton pitched 8.2 innings while posting a 6/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while converting on both of his save opportunities. With Capps back in the fold, Burton and Perkins may return to their previous set-up roles. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mccarthy.jpg Over in Indian Wells, California baseball’s head honchos are engaged in debates regarding rule changes, safety regulations and Ken Rosenthal’s choice of bow ties. In between that and the golfing, teams have been aggressive in their pursuits for available talent. “I’ve been in this business 21 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said pitcher Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato of SFX. “This is moving really, really fast.” Even the Twins appear fairly active – at least if you are basing that on their “interest” list. So far, most of the reports emerging from the meetings demonstrated that the Twins are serious about fixing their starting rotation. Yesterday, John Bonnes discussed the potential starting pitching trade options for the Twins, highlighting the Rays and Braves in particular, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Twins and Mariners were talking swap. Now, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson compiled an interesting list of players the Twins have had contact with: Brandon McCarthy: Prior to catching on with the A’s, McCarthy was destined to be a flame-out prospect after several seasons with the White Sox and Rangers. If it were not for the early-career arm injuries, McCarthy may never have changed his mechanics which may never have led to the increase in ground balls. He does not miss a ton of bats, but he avoids heavy contact and has kept his home run rate subdued (part of that may have to do with pitching in Oakland). The downside is, with the extensive injury history and the recent blow to the head off the bat of the Erick Aybar, McCarthy has not thrown that many innings raising the question of whether or not he would be able to give a team 30-plus starts. In addition to the Twins, the Cubs are courting the right-hander. Anibal Sanchez: As Wolfson’s source indicated, Sanchez’s asking price may preclude the Twins from actually engaging in serious talks. It was reported last night that the 28-year-old right-hander is seeking a six-year, $90 million deal. Considering that Sanchez is likely the second-best free agent option on the market aside from Zack Greinke and that he is under 30-years-old, there is a strong probability that he could command that kind of cheddar. Ryan Dempster: Reported yesterday by Wolfson, the Twins “inquired” on this 35-year-old free agent. But so too have the Red Sox and now the Milwaukee Brewers. Dempster had success as both a closer and starter for some terrible Cubs teams, and had averaged 206 innings as a starter from 2008 to 2011. In fact, since 2008, he’s had the exact same expected fielding independent pitching number as Jake Peavy (3.73) and has been slightly better in that department than Anibal Sanchez (3.80). Of course, that doesn’t mean he will continue on that path. This past year, he struggled a bit in Texas and has had his velocity drop to sub-90 this year (not a good indicator in the mid-30s). On a one or possibly a two-year deal, Dempster could be an effective addition for Minnesota. Brett Myers: Working on a budget with numerous holes to plug, Terry Ryan will undoubtedly have to get creative in how to get the most out of their available payroll. With that in mind, targeting Brett Myers makes sense. After two consecutive years throwing over 200 innings with the Astros, Houston decided to convert him into a closer. Following a trade to the White Sox Myers, now a free agent, has interest in becoming either a starter or reliever. In terms of performance, Myers has been the archetypical Twins starter: Gets strike one (career 61% first-pitch strike rate), limits walks (career 8% walk rate), is not a strikeout pitcher (at least as a starter). This probably isn’t sexy but he’s done well and, if capable of hitting the 200 innings milestone, he would be a decent number four option in the rotation. Brandon Webb: This falls under the “leave no stone unturned” category. Webb has thrown only 12 real innings since 2009 and that was in the Texas League (AA) in 2011. His shoulder has simply not responded well since his 2009 rotator cuff surgery and that necessitated a second surgery in 2011. Since then, there has been no reports of Webb’s throwing status but considering the surgery was over a year ago, there should be some indication of where he is at velocity-wise. The odds are long but if this former Cy Young winner gets an spring invite and has rediscovered something, who knows. The Twins may ultimately leave California without any new additions to the rotation but obviously the groundwork has been laid. And, as it is rumored, the moves could happen quickly. Stay tuned. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Fien.jpg The Minnesota Twins have excelled in certain areas of team-building. While they may be light years behind in developing starting pitchers, their ability to identify inexpensive bullpen talent has been impressive. Casey Fien is one such find.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For less than a million dollars of salary the 29-year-old right-hander has provided the team with over $7 million of production value, according to Fangraphs.com’s valuation. That is a significant contribution from a pitcher who was on the verge of being organizational flotsam. Had the Twins not picked him up in 2012, Fien knows it is possible that he would still be shuffling between different clubs’ Triple-A affiliates. He also acknowledges that if it were not for the Twins, he might not be the pitcher he is today. In his life before professional baseball, Fien had already lived a fairly nomadic existence. After high school, the right-hander bounced around to three different colleges: William Penn University in Oskaloosa, Iowa, Golden West College in Huntington Beach, California and finally, he graduated from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. In 2006, with a small farming community worth of ballplayers selected before him, the Tigers tapped him with pick number five-hundred and ninety-two. Being selected twenty rounds deep in the major league draft does not assure anything. Unless you are a stud high school prospect with college as leverage, draftees rarely make enough to finance a used Honda Accord with their bonus money. The road to the majors is filled with plenty of detours – and Fien’s path is an example of that. Following a seven-year stint in Detroit’s organization, with ten appearances at the major league level scattered between 2009 and 2010 (a season which began in March with him being waiver-claimed by Boston, and then by Toronto, before returning to Detroit fewer than twenty days later), Fien spent 2011 with the Houston Astros. In August, minor elbow strain eventually led that club to cut ties with him in. After a winter in the Mexican Leagues, the Twins extended him a minor league contract in January 2012. It was not as if Fien lacked the tools to succeed. After all, he had a mid-90s fastball and above average secondary pitches. Something needed to happen. It was then, in the Minnesota Twins organization, that it all clicked. “That’s a good way to put it,” said Fien. “It just started clicking for me. I started throwing everything for strikes and once you can start someone off-speed and then locate your fastball, from then on out it’s your game, not their game.” In a late season call-up, Fien had a 2.06 ERA, the second-lowest among rookies to throw 35 innings or more. Did a change in his approach help him succeed that year? “I wouldn’t say ‘change it’,” said Fien, “it was more of ‘focusing on what you need to work on’.” And helping him focus on what he needed to work on was Rochester’s trio of instructors. “The pitching coaches up and down the lineup, they tell you what you need to work on, how to get to the big leagues. Last year, I had two great coaches. I had Bobby [Cuellar], who’s in the bullpen now, and I also had [Rochester manager] Gene Glynn, who was a great person to talk to. And Bruno [Tom Brunansky], Bruno was a guy who I would go to and ask ‘what do I need to do to get these hitters out?’” The 29-year-old California native may have a warm demeanor with a friendly smile in the clubhouse, but out on the mound he clearly has ice water in his veins. Fien says this was not always the case: in previous years he was simply trying to throw strikes instead of pitching. The lessons and skills learned during his stint Rochester in 2012 helped turn him into a reliable late innings reliever, and over the last month he is being used more frequently in high leverage situations as Jared Burton has struggled. Moreover, in the first half of the season his services have been requested with numerous runners on base - 30 to be exact- which is the seventh highest in the American League. That is a significant undertaking and vote of confidence by the manager considering he allowed 11 of his 25 inherited runners to score last year. To his credit, Fien has allowed just four to score, or 13%, a minuscule rate when compared to the league average of 32%. Small sample size notwithstanding, he has clamped down when he needed the final out of an inning, particularly when a runner was in scoring position. According to his splits at Baseball-Reference.com, opponents are 0-for-18 with two outs and have a runner on second or third. In April, Fien told reporters that in those RISP situations, he uses the hitters’ aggressiveness against them. As hitters begin to smell those RBIs, they tend to expand the zone in an effort to drive in those runners. Using a running cutter/slider, Fien has been able to move his pitches from one side of the strike zone to well off the plate on the other side, leaving hitters completely incapacitated. How impressive has his cutter been? If you search Fangraphs.com’s pitch value leaderboard, Fien’s 8.8 runs above average falls within the top five of qualified relievers, one slot ahead of Mariano Rivera, whose cutter has elevated him to legendary status. Matching Rivera's approach with this stuff is a surefire method for keeping yourself in the big leagues. “Getting confidence and sticking with your game plan,” Fien says, revealing his secret recipe for success. “Because once you try to do something that you are not supposed to…young guys, when they get here, they try to do too much. You just have to find your niche, your comfort zone.” Click here to view the article

Yesterday, the Twins traded a known commodity in center fielder Denard Span for the potential of right-hander Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9, hard-throwing and former first round pick with talents that have impressed prospect pundits. While the Nationals get immediately better, the Twins will have to wait to see if Meyer’s talent pans out. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Here’s what we know about Meyer: He can throw in the upper 90s (ooh!) coupled with a devastating breaking pitch (ahh!) and is really super tall (whoa!). Do those three things make him destined for baseball immortality? Not necessarily, after all, two of those three things could have been said about former Twin Jim Hoey. So what makes Meyer so promising to the Twins? Off the bat, well, he misses bats - something that has been sorely lacking among the system’s talent. In first professional season, Meyer struck out 26.6% of all batters faced. Comparatively, the starter to throw over 100 innings with the closest strikeout rate within the Twins organization was Liam Hendriks with a 19.9% strikeout rate. When opponents do make contact, they have mainly put the ball in play on the ground. With a ground ball rate over 50% split between two levels, Meyer has proven that his pitches are difficult to square up. Although grounder rates typically decline some as a pitcher advances up the ladder, Meyer’s current rate is impressive and a good starting point. Because of his Futures Game outing, albeit a brief, six-pitch endeavor, we have a glance at what sort of action he has on his pitches thanks to the magic of pitch f/x cameras. The first thing that sticks out is his release point. Naturally, with a big frame at 6-foot-9, you would expect that he would have an equally impressive release point. Unlike fellow vertically imposing hurlers like Jon Rauch (6-foot-11), Meyer does not have a release point that extends above his height limit. Rauch’s fastball release point has averaged 7.1 feet above the ground (remember, pitch f/x captures the “release point” a foot and change after a pitcher lets go of the ball). By comparison, the pitch f/x camera’s that night in Kauffman Stadium said that Meyer’s fastball was being released at 6.6 feet on average - slightly below his overall height. This means Meyer is coming from a three-quarter slot rather than over-the-top arm action. In this screen grab captures from Mike Newman’s scouting video, you can see where Meyer’s release point is: https://lh4.googleus...On-ICJMCNIYA7JM During his Futures Game outing, BrooksBaseball.net says that Meyer’s no-seam fastball, a pitch he threw four of the six times, averaged 99 miles an hour with glove-side run. Obviously when you are throwing cheddar at 95+ as a starter, the movement is not exactly the focal point that the hitter is grumbling about as he walks back to the dugout. Still, it is noteworthy that Meyer has some very good run on his fastball nonetheless. If you don’t have movement, you end up like Jim Hoey’s fastball which major league opponents can catch up to, In describing this no-seam pitch, Meyer told MiLB.com’s Andrew Pentis that in college he had thrown a straight four-seam fastball but discovered that he actually threw his “no-seam” fastball -- a two-seam grip in which he positions his fingers closer together off of the seams -- harder than his four-seamer with the added bonus of movement. Combined with his three-quarters release point, this pitch will demonstrate plenty of run. So, if a hitter actually is able to catch up to this 99er, it is also running either into (if right-handed) or away from (if left-handed) and making it that much more difficult to square up. This is part of the reason why he has been able to generate ground balls in over 50% of balls put into play. This particular clip of his fastball, captured during a bullpen session while in the South Atlantic League by the aforementioned Newman, shows how his fastball runs down and into right-handers: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354284175_Meyer2.gif What you also see is his ability to dial it up to another level: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Meyer.gif Meyer’s fastball does not end up at the catcher’s target (down in the zone) but rather finishes up in the zone. To me, this is reminiscent of some of Justin Verlander’s fastballs. Watching Verlander the years, you see his catcher call for something lower and then have the right-hander simply overpower you with a high fastball. What makes him more than just a one-trick pony is his devastating knuckle curve he mixes in. While some outlets will frequently refer to this pitch as a “slider” - mostly because it is thrown with a hard velocity and has a sharp, downward break - Meyer actually grips this pitch with a fingernail dug into the horseshoe-shaped part of the ball. As he describes to Pentis: Here is Meyer’s knuckle curve grip during the Futures Game. Note the positioning of his index finger: https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/LYCEhzKlsXtIcazFLUpw8S8bFxjcL_-x2nq6H7VTlh1yjZyyEFGta3PF1MvTyMfiqtTf9cBxtsuj7YR570ke-BpBRVPbtEFbcT_f3MGHewfVsiEJm1A This downward action created by the grip has caused plenty of swing-and-misses and was rated by Baseball America as the best slider in the Nationals’ organization. While it is absolute filth at times, some of his unstable mechanics, an issue with taller pitchers, caused some problems this pitch. During his outing this summer, Newman noted that: In addition to his knuckle curve, Meyer is developing a change-up which he admits does not have the overall feel for but is working hard on perfecting that pitch. At the very least, the change in velocity -- from the upper 90s to the upper 80s -- gives the opponents something to think about. However, if Meyer is going to progress to the point of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, he will need to have that all-important third pitch. Otherwise his two-pitch fastball-knuckle curve combination has reliever written all over it. It’s long been said that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Some flame out, some get hurt and some never adapt. In Meyer’s case, injury is not out of the question, but his skill set is very strong. The Twins organization’s coaches and instructors -- likely those in New Britain -- will be tasked with refining his mechanics and instilling some consistency in them as well as finalizing his change-up in order to maximize his potential as a starter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MornieWillingham.jpg On Tuesday night the Minnesota Twins were mounting an assault in the eighth inning on Phillies reliever Mike Adams. Having just relinquished the tying run the half-inning prior, the Twins had runners on the corners and one out. The Outfield’s “Your Love” blasted over Target Field’s sound system indicating that Josh Willingham would be arriving to the plate. Adams, however, was able to get Willingham to pop out in foul territory for the second out. This brought Justin Morneau to the plate with. The Phillies countered with the left-handed Antonio Bastardo. Morneau fouled off four tough pitches before he laced a line drive to center to score Jamey Carroll, giving the Twins the lead which would later be preserved by Glen Perkins in the ninth. In a nutshell, this highlights the major difference between the team’s two more prominent bats in the middle of the lineup. Willingham, who leads the team with 10 home runs, has seen his overall batting average slip to .214 and has hit .212 in 65 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Morneau, who has not homered since April 28, has been able to find other ways to drive in runs when needed and has provided a .359 batting average in his 78 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Willingham’s power has still been a major factor in the lineup but his inability to keep the ball on the ground and reach safely has decreased his potency. His pop- out to third base on Tuesday was a prime example of his struggles. Equipped with a significant upper-cut swing which helped him take to the skies and jack 35 home runs last year, this same swing has been a detriment to him this year. According to Fangraphs.com, Willingham has hit 70 fly balls and 17 of those have not left the infield. That 24.3% infield fly ball rate is second in all baseball -- behind only Atlanta’s BJ Upton (who is currently impressing his new team with a .161 average) -- and well above his career rate of 13%. This is the main reason his batting average on balls in play has dropped to a career-low .258. Willingham recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that: Judging by his splits, Willingham is actually performing better in counts in which he is ahead in the count this year in comparison to last year: This year he’s batting .273/.500/.545 compared to .244/.473/.494. Where he is experiencing the most decline is in even counts (first pitch, 1-1, 2-2): In 2011, he hit a robust .284/.308/.607 with 17 of his 35 home runs. This year it’s down to .227/.292/.485 and 5 dingers. A cursory search at TexasLeaguers.com’s PitchF/X tool shows that Willingham has seen some of the cherry pitches disappear from a year ago as opponents have adjusted. In the 1-1 counts last year, Willingham saw 40% fastballs. It is down to 30% this year. In 2-2 counts, his slider percentage when up from 20% to 28%. This shows that teams are approaching Willingham slightly differently and this may be the cause of his high percentage of infield flies. While Willingham is having problems lofting balls out of the infield, Morneau is unable to lose them over the fence. Like Willingham, Morneau has also hit 70 fly balls this season yet only two have had enough distance so he could jog around all the bases. Morneau’s home runs-to-fly balls rate is at a career-low 2.9%. To put that into context, the 2.9% rate is the 11th-lowest in the majors, squeezing the one-time slugger in between such power threats as Juan Pierre (2.3%) and Marco Scutero (3.3%). Morneau seems flummoxed by this development. In his conversation with Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan Morneau said that he’s doing everything he had in past years but the results are not showing. But will they turn into homers? There could be dozens of factors playing into Morneau’s lack of home runs. Mechanics, injury and age could all be contributors. Mechanically, he’s flying open more than he had in past seasons, which may limit his able to drive the ball that is down in the zone that he had once demolished regularly. Take a look as his home runs by location since 2008: Download attachment: Morneau_HRS_career.PNG He was able to launch plenty of home runs on pitches down the middle and middle-low. If a hitter is flying open, that pitch becomes increasingly difficult to drive. Now, the only two home runs he has this year have come on pitches on the inside and out of the zone – a spot easier to drive if a hitter is flying open: Download attachment: Morneau_HRS_2013.PNG Beyond that, Morneau’s average distance on his fly balls is down considerably too. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, from 2010 to 2012, he averaged 278 feet per fly ball. That’s down to 260 this year. Additionally, the speed with which the ball leaves his bat is also down. The extremely small sample size notwithstanding, HitTrackerOnline.com says Morneau’s two home runs averaged an exit speed of 101.4 miles per hour whereas it was 104.4 in 2012, 102.4 in 2011 and 104.9 in 2010. At this rate, if the average speed off of the bat decline is any indication, it seems difficult to believe that Morneau is “just missing” and that there is something else behind his power outage. The Twins' tandem in the heart of the order are both having down years for separate reasons. Both, too, are potential trade candidates at the deadline. However, at this pace, the return for either would be quite underwhelming unless they are able to increase their production soon. Click here to view the article

Buyers or Sellers? Admit it. You kind of forgot about the Padres all tucked away down there in the National League West, playing games that finish well past your bedtime and having a generally overall boring team. Does Trevor Hoffman still play for them? No? Oh, well, who cares, they still serve fantastic fish tacos there. This year’s model is much like the past several: not competitive. Currently ten games below .500 and “just” six-and-a-half games out of first, the Friars don’t [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]have the firepower to compete with the free-spending Dodgers or the savvy and youthful Diamondbacks and Rockies. Normally this would mean they would be sellers but they do not have much to offer as they have moved most of their major league chips in recent seasons. In fact, their current payroll is just $13M higher than what it was in 2000 – when they didn’t have a new stadium and finished dead last. If they sell, it won’t be much. Chase Headley is their big ticket item but all signs point to them retaining him. They may unload pitchers like Jason Marquis, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez or reliever Luke Gregerson. Here’s the thing: They are not acting as sellers. They have reportedly been scouting top flight starting pitching. Could they possibly be buying? Download attachment: san-diego-padres.jpg What They Need? A front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Following in the footsteps of Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly, the prized prospect received in the Adrian Gonzalez trade with Boston, had Tommy John surgery in March and will be out of action for quite some time. Based on his pedigree, he was supposed to be the anchor for years to come. Now, the rotation is led by Twins’ castoff Jason Marquis, who has done quite well for himself in San Diego, and 33-year-old Eric Stultz. Rumors circulated that the Padres tried to acquire Jake Arrieta from the Orioles before the Cubs packaged Scott Feldman for him. They also tried for Ricky Nolasco before the Dodgers netted him. According the MLBTradeRumors.com, the Padres have had scouts keeping an eye on Matt Garza who may still be available – but at a steep price. The Padres system, however, had a pre-season ranking of fourth overall, so there are plenty of young trading chips if need be. What Might Work With the Twins? Eh…not much. After all, the Padres’ biggest need (starting pitching) is also the Twins' biggest need. It’s hard to see these two teams finding a match. While the Twins are holding on to back-of-the-rotation starters like Mike Pelfrey, who might help a contender add depth to the rotation through the regular season, the Padres likely have no use for that. Based on their scouting wish list (Garza, Nolasco) they are thinking big. (Although, I once test drove a Ferrari with absolutely no possibility of ever purchasing it.) What else? The Padres have experienced Kevin Correia once so it is hard to see them trying to make a move for him. Huston Street, the one-time lights-out closer for the Rockies and A’s, has fallen on hard times in San Diego. While he isn’t a disaster, his strikeout rate has taken a substantial dip as his velocity has decreased to the upper-80s and his once potent slider is no longer the bat-misser it was. If they get overzealous, they may be interested in an arm like Glen Perkins or Jared Burton to improve their ‘pen. Overall, there may be possibilities of a minor move but these two franchises are too simpatico for the pair to be viable trade partners. Sleeper Trades Robbie Erlin – LHP – Triple-A -- 22-years-old A third-round pick by the Texas Rangers in 2009, the left-handed Erlin came over to the Padres along with Joe Wieland in the Mike Adams trade. With command and guile over raw stuff, Erlin is very much a Twins-type pitcher (read: sub-90 velocity) though he does have a good breaking ball. He has a few MLB innings under his belt. Keyvius Sampson – RHP – Triple-A -- 22-years-old Selected a round later than Erlin in 2009, the Padres landed the slight-framed Sampson (six-foot-nothing, 185 pounds) out of a Florida high school. Baseball America was impressed by his secondary stuff – namely his curveball and change – but his consistency has not been terrific as he has averaged four walks per nine innings pitched in five minor league seasons. Adys Portillo – RHP – Low-A – 21 years old Like a vast majority of the Padres’ pitching prospects, Portillo has spent a lot of 2013 injured. His injury, however, isn’t nearly as significant as Kelly;s or Wieland’s UCL tears. Still, Baseball America rated Portillo’s fastball as his best asset as well as the best in the system so a lat/tricep injury may affect the velocity. Like many young hard-throwing hurlers, Portillo’s command needs work (over five walks per nine innings); last year this resulted in a demotion to High-A from AA. Dream Target Max Fried – LHP – Low-A – 19 years old Unless the Padres are more desperate for Perkins than a group of drunken college kids at 2 AM, then there is likely no way the Twins could get Fried. In fact, the Padres would have to be a bunch of drunken college kids to swap a potential number one starter for a closer. Still, we can dream, can’t we? Prospectphiles may have heard Fried’s name in combination with Lucas Giolito, giving Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles an amazing one-two punch. Drafted seventh overall by the Padres in 2012, this six-foot-four lefty is currently chopping up the competition in the Midwest League, striking out 22.3% of hitters faced. His 57% ground ball rate is in the league’s top ten but his weak spot right now is the walks – the 11.5% walk rate places him fourth in the league right behind the Twins’ Hudson Boyd. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit.jpg When the Twins signed Ryan Doumit, they gained a switch-hitter who had a moderate level of pop and decent batting average ability thanks to a high line drive rate. What they did not necessarily sign was a patient hitter who has been able to coax walks. The former Pittsburgh Pirate has held a 6.8% walk rate for his career, a mark that is slightly below the average of 8%. However, this spring, bolstered by nine walks in 54 plate appearances, Doumit has turned in a 15% walk rate. Could Doumit have turned a corner in his career? Has he added another dimension to his offensive game? Maybe this is a step forward for Doumit. While we should never base anything on a sampling of 50 plate appearances, who’s to say that the switch-hitter has not honed his strike zone judgment or made a concerted effort to improve his discipline? Interestingly enough, Doumit’s plate discipline numbers from a year ago paint a story of a hitter who has been scrutinizing pitches more. According to Fangraphs.com, prior to the 2011 season, Doumit had an out-of-zone swing rate of over 32% in each of the previous three seasons, a rate well above the average. This past season, he whittled that down to 26%, which was below the average. So it is possible that the walks amassed in Florida are the fruits of his labors that he implemented in 2011 but it seems unlikely. This is spring training. It is chock full of erratic pitchers, minor league arms who may be intimidated of major leaguers and those who are just “working on things”. Doumit’s sudden spike in a little over 50 plate appearances has little or no statistical bearings on his future production. After all, players have monster springs more often than not regress to their true levels. Consider this: a year ago, Jason Repko drew a team-high 10 walks in Grapefruit League action – a whopping 15% walk rate for the fourth outfielder. When the regular season rolled around and those pitchers who lack command were vetted, Repko’s walk rate came crashing back down to earth, finishing the year with a 4.2% walk rate over his 144 plate appearances. What’s more is that there are not a lot of hitters who have had a sudden and sustained walk rate spike in the middle of their careers. The Oakland A’s Moneyball philosophy was to draft patient hitters because they could “teach” power (or inject them with steroids or whatever) but they could not teach discipline. Doumit, while sporting an 8% walk rate in the minors, is unlikely to have his numbers transform radically this late in his career. So, will Doumit’s spring patience carry into the regular season? It’s improbable, but not impossible. In the end, he likely finishes the year with a walk rate close to his career average of 7%. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Joe Mauer.jpg Baseball America has released their MLB Best Tools 2013 report, providing the top three players at certain skill sets (i.e. Best Hitter, Best Power, Best Strike-Zone Judgment, etc) as determined by a poll of major league managers. Not surprising, the Minnesota Twins have little of representation this year. Only Joe Mauer and Jamey Carroll showed up on the list.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Mauer was lauded as the second-best player in Strike-Zone Judgment and the third-best Hitter, third-best Defensive Catcher. Carroll, meanwhile, was selected as the second-best Hit-and-Run Artist in the American League. A smattering of ex-Twins also showed up on the list, including Jesse Crain (as the second-best reliever in the AL), J.J. Hardy (who was voted the best Defensive Shortstop in the AL), and Carlos Gomez (who was deemed the best Defensive Center fielder in the National League). In Baseball America’s minor league skill rankings, the Twins have numerous players lauded as having the best skills in their respective leagues: Low-A (Midwest League): Best Batting Prospect (Byron Buxton), Best Power Prospect (Adam Brett Walker), Best Defensive 2B (Jorge Polanco), Best Defensive OF (Buxton), Most Exciting Player (Buxton) and Best Manager Prospect (Jake Mauer). High-A (Florida State League): Best Batting Prospect (Miguel Sano), Best Power Prospect (Sano), Fastest Baserunner (Buxton), Best Defensive OF (Buxton), Most Exciting Player (Sano). Double-A (Eastern League): Best Power Prospect (Sano), Best Strike-Zone Judgment (Pinto), Best Defensive SS (Danny Santana) and Best Infield Arm (Sano). Triple-A (International League): None. The two things that stick out about this list is while there is a decent amount of minor league Twins players included, they are (1) low in the system and (2) all position players. This will be a factor as the organization struggles to produce high-quality starting pitchers. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg Last night Justin Morneau hit multiple home runs in a game for the third time this season. As impressive as that is, the most noteworthy aspect about that feat is that the Twins first baseman hit both of those off of curve balls – something that he had done only once since 2010. Heading into Monday’s game against the Indians, Morneau’s numbers against curves had been very underwhelming. According to Fangraphs.com, his Pitch Value on curveballs had been 5.7 runs BELOW average – making it the third worst output against benders in all of baseball. But now, after two home runs off of uncle charlies from Zack McAllister and Josh Tomlin, Morneau is looking tougher to retire on that pitch. Why is this significant to his progress? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As I wrote about in May, teams had exploited Morneau’s tendency to jump the gun with his swing with a high percentage of curve balls. While he was opening up his front side drastically, opponents who simple throw him a wrinkle. Because he was firing open, the off-speed breaking stuff likely caused him to be too far out front to put a proper swing on the ball. Now, instead of pulling his front side out he has remained locked in on the ball – leading to better connectivity and punch on those pitches. And, because of that, he is hitting .360/.404/.590 since July 5 after going through a series of mechanical adjustments which seemingly have helped him stay back - from the start of the season until July 4, Morneau swung and missed at 14.1% of curves but that rate has dropped to 6.3% since then. In fact, his .415 weighted on-base average over the past 30 days is in the top ten among AL performs. It’s good to see Morneau crushing curve balls again and all pitching in general. As John Bonnes wrote about today, this performance (combined with his soon-to-be expiring contract and Chris Parmelee’s AAA outbreak) may make the 31-year-old attractive to the few clubs in the league who are in need of a high-priced first baseman. Click here to view the article

Joe Mauer’s 8 Balls-In-Play Have Been Grounders Download attachment: hit-chart.png So, yeah, infinitesimally small sample of eight plate appearances in which Joe Mauer has put the ball in play have resulted in grounders. One of those games was against Chris-Freaking-Sale who was so dominant against left-handed opponents that he only faced 163 in 2013 because no manager in his right mind would trot his lefties out there to spin holes in the batter’s box (Sale led the league with a .133 batting average against). With all that in mind, Mauer’s put eight balls in play, all have been on the ground, and (AND!) only one has been slashed the other way. ONE. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Could this be concussion-related/time-off/rust issues at the plate? Possibly, but again, CHRIS EFFIN SALE. Something to watch for over the next few games. More likely however, Mauer will revert back to his above-20% line drive clip while peppering left field with tons of balls soon enough. Glen Perkins Pumped Nothing But Gas Download attachment: pitch-movement.png In his first appearance of the season and since his new monolithic closer extension was signed, Glen Perkins... (wait for it) ...blew a save. Now, Perkins had help in the form of Trevor Plouffe’s errant throw to the plate but the usually lights-out closer did not appear to be his usual self. Perhaps it was the cold (pitchers struggle to find the grip on the ball in cold weather), working with a new catcher or possibly the start of the season but -- for whatever reason -- Perkins eschewed using his biting slider. Against the Sox, he threw 28 pitches with 24 of them being fastballs and one being a slider**. To their credit, the White Sox hitters jumped all over Perkins’ first-pitch fastballs that were in-zone and collected two of their three hits early in the count. It should be noted too that Perkins’ fastball velocity was down compared to last season’s average -- averaging 92.2 at the Cell yesterday. While he was a few clicks above that for the year in 2013, his first outing of the year he was averaging 92.4. Probably nothing to worry about. **This means either those pitches were not identified or some glitch in the system. BrooksBaseball.net says he threw 25 total pitches -- 24 fastballs and one slider. Hot Start For Aaron Hicks Download attachment: strike-zone.png Last year’s start for Hicks was more frigid than the Minnesota temps. This year, however, he’s already collected four hits. Sample size notwithstanding, what is impressive about Hicks this season is that he has a strong two-strike approach that did not exist at this point (and longer) in his rookie year. In six of his plate appearances so far in two-strike situations, he has collected two of his four hits while putting a third ball in play. Through two games last year, he had seven two-strike scenarios and struck out five times and put the ball into play just once. What you can see in the heat map is that Hicks has taken advantage of pitcher’s up-in-the-zone mistakes in two-strike counts. Are we witnessing a maturing Aaron Hicks who is going to battle with a game plan this year? Download attachment: USATSI_7847043.jpg All charts and data is provided by ESPN Stats & Info Click here to view the article

According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, the Twins have been in contact with a potential bullpen arm: On paper, backend depth in the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the 2011 Twins as they had Joe Nathan and Matt Capps in place to handle the 8th and 9th innings to shorten games. Of course, in reality, Nathan’s return from Tommy John surgery was predictably premature while Capps would labor through arm issues of his own, leaving the Twins short in late inning arms – particularly from the right side. Without question, the left-handed Glen Perkins filled the role admirably as the bridge to the closer, even holding righties to a bullpen-best .259 batting average against. Yet, the Twins struggled to find a suitable candidate to square off on tougher right-handed hitters – guys who could be counted on to defuse a late inning matchup with Paul Konerko or Miguel Cabrera. Over the course of the season, the team trotted out young arms in Alex Burnett (789 OPS vs RHB), Lester Oliveros (706 OPS), Esmerling Vasquez (606 OPS) and Kyle Waldrop (909 OPS). While the future may prove otherwise, based on their results none of those players seemed ready to handle more critical situations. As those pitchers get the opportunity to develop in less vital roles - perhaps eventually marrying the skill with their natural talent and ascending in the pecking order - the Twins would require a more stable, more consistent right-handed member of the bullpen. That’s where the 31-year-old Todd Coffey comes in. Undervalued for most of his career and, outside of his sprint in from the bullpen, Coffey has toiled away quietly in the National League, producing splits that would make blue states proud. Over his seven seasons, he has keep righties at bay at a much better rate than lefties (.265 RH avg vs .317 LH avg). That mark has improved in the past few seasons as well. Since 2009, he’s kept righties at a .222 average. While he had been given a more balanced workload in Milwaukee, facing righties and lefties a fairly equal amount, the Nationals played more to his strength by limited his engagements with wrong-handed hitters. This meant shorter outings and more selective appearances. It appears to be an ideal fit for the Twins – someone with late inning experience, who is tough on right-handed opponents and can be lifted easily for one of the plethora of southpaws in the ‘pen (Perkins or Brian Duensing). But, is Coffey as good as advertised? Interestingly, Coffey has seen his batted ball rates change significantly in the past three years. Early on in his career, Coffey was a ground-ball inducing machine, getting grounders well over 50% of the time. In 2010, that started to dip. Last year, his ground ball rate was at a career-low 43.6%. What appears to be responsible for the decline is how he deploys his slider. Prior to 2010, Coffey was mainly a fastball guy who occasionally mixed in his slider but in 2010, Coffey up his usage of the slider to the point where he nearly threw it as much as his fastball (likely in response to the higher amount of match-ups versus same-sided hitters). But it wasn’t just the amount that changed; it was how he threw the slider as well. In 2009, he would bury the slider underneath the zone, inciting any opponents who opted to chase after the pitch to go out of the strike zone to do so. Because of its trajectory and the fact that it was well underneath the hitting zone when it reached the plate, most hitters were forced to bat it into the ground or flail at it. Download attachment: Coffey_SlidervRHB_2009.jpg Download attachment: Coffey_Slider_09.jpg Meanwhile, starting in 2010, Coffey began to throw his slider more often for a strike. This meant in was in the zone more resulting in more contact and more elevation in said contact. Download attachment: Coffey_SlidervRHB_2011.jpg Download attachment: Coffey_Slider_11.jpg Along with the decrease in grounders, Coffey also witnessed righties hitting his offerings more solidly. According to Inside Edge’s Well Hit metric, in 2009, righties posted a .168 well-hit average. This past season, that number jumped to .221. In spite of that hard-hit rate, Coffey had a little help from his friends in the Nationals defense this year, helping convert 72.1% of balls in play into outs – also a career best. As mentioned before, Coffey has a decent fastball/slider combination that when thrown together in the right mix, he may be able to avoid getting squared up regularly. Ideally, if the Twins do sign him to subdue righties, they show him the difference in how his slider is performing and see if he can resurrected the ’09 version at Target Field. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg It was not more than a month or so ago that third baseman Trevor Plouffe was the hottest thing in the Twin Cities. Essentially, he was “Call Me Maybe” personified. Prior to taking a Luke Hochaver offering on the right thumb back on July 20, Plouffe was compiling decent number – including otherworldly stats in the power department such as 11 home runs in 26 games. However, since his return on August 20 he is now just 8-for-56 (.142) and has yet to hit for extra bases. The depressed performance has spurred a debate regarding Plouffe’s long-term starting viability and Twins GM Terry Ryan ‘challenged’ him to step up and win the starting third base job heading towards the season’s final month. Although his performance as of late has been lackluster, there are signs that this is just a temporary lull brought on by the extended time off and the injury to his thumb. For starters, his batted ball numbers have completely rearranged themselves since his hiatus. Since returning from the disabled list, the hitter who was once making it rain with fly balls at an over 50 percent as recently as the end of June, Plouffe has not elevated the ball recently and has seen his fly ball rate drop to 35 percent in August. While a reduction in flies has a tendency to whittle away one’s power numbers, the good news is that he’s actually hitting a higher percentage of line drives. Of course, the bad news is that those liners just are not becoming hits (as evidenced by his .142 average on the month). Then there is the fact that he’s seemed unbalanced when it comes to his pitch selection. Last night, after whiffing on Seattle Mariner Josh Kinney’s 79 mile per hour slurve, FSN analyst Roy Smalley remarked that “[He’s] out in front – badly – on a breaking ball. That’s an ‘I’m concerned about being beat on the fastball and I swing at the first thing I see.’” Though he is not necessarily getting beat outright on the slow stuff, Plouffe is swinging at more off-speed offerings since his return. For instance, heading into last night’s game Plouffe had swung at 13 of the 16 changeups (81%) he had seen. Before his injury, he was swinging at 41 of 82 (50%). This more or less speaks to Smalley’s critique and smacks of a hitter struggling with pitch recognition and leaving him with a swing that out in front of the pitch only to result in a weak grounder or infield pop-up (hence the decline in long fly balls). In theory, this will take some time getting re-acclimated to the competition. Finally, mechanically speaking, Plouffe is not turning his hips in the same violent manner in which he did while pulling the tar out of the ball in June and July. With the exception of the swing he put on Felix Hernandez’s fastball on Monday night, Plouffe’s swing system appears off-kilter -- likely due symptom of both timing and pitch recognition issues. Without the timely torque from his core, he has not been pulling the ball with as much vigor as he did pre-thumb injury. Ryan admitted that he may hold some blame for the numbers decline by not sending Plouffe out on a longer rehab assignment. After all, he only was granted two games and nine plate appearances in order to get by in the swing of things after missing time because of the bruised thumb. Ryan is correct in acknowledging that the Twins missed an opportunity to give Plouffe additional time to recalibrate prior to returning to the major league roster. What’s more is that this current output should not be entirely unexpected of Plouffe either. When he was sidelined throughout the majority of spring training he started the season extremely slow. In mid-May, he was hitting .133/.288/.217 and Ryan – at that time – went to the media to encourage his third baseman to step up. Plouffe responded and hit .296/.344/.618 with 18 home runs over his next 52 games. Plouffe has certainly not proven that he’s capable of providing sustained production for an entire season and that is cause of concern. Then again injuries have buttressed his season explaining why his offensive stats have been bookended by terrible numbers. Look for Plouffe to regain traction in September and reclaim his rightful place as the Twins starting third baseman in 2013. Click here to view the article