Parker Hageman

On this week's episode of the No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman begin with some big news. Like, really big.Then they talk about the Minnesota Twins which includes the recent trade of Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners, the potential of trading away Kurt Suzuki and the overall status of the team heading towards what is projected to be another disappointing second-half. Other topics on the show include the Minnesota Vikings training camp, idiotic media responses to domestic violence and stealing other podcast’s Twitter questions. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #15 - BIG ANNOUNCEMENT Click here to view the article

On this week's episode of the No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman begin with some big news. Like, really big. Then they talk about the Minnesota Twins which includes the recent trade of Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners, the potential of trading away Kurt Suzuki and the overall status of the team heading towards what is projected to be another disappointing second-half. Other topics on the show include the Minnesota Vikings training camp, idiotic media responses to domestic violence and stealing other podcast’s Twitter questions. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #15 - BIG ANNOUNCEMENT

Download attachment: Worley1.jpg You would think with a moniker like “Vanimal” that Vance Worley would be a rock star-party hard individual. Some meathead with torn off sleeves and who breaks “No Pepper” signs on the backstop with a 99-mile per hour fastball. That’s simply not Vance. He is not a huck-n-chuck hurler who puts little thought in the process and just pitches on animal instincts. He realizes that his stuff isn’t electric. He knows that his fastball doesn’t wow radar gun enthusiasts or that his breaking ball doesn’t cause hitters to spin themselves in to the dirt. He does know what he has and how to use it. After all, you don’t get as may strikeouts as Worley did in 2011 and having most of them registered as caught looking without outsmarting and outthinking your opponent. When asked if he would ever use Pitchf/x to help create an advantage over his opponents, he shrugged. “There’s nothing to really use a whole lot,” he admits. “I tend to use it more against guys I have already faced, so I can see what they have done against me. It’s tough to go off of what other guys do because it everybody is different. There might be a guy who’s throwing upper-90s, such as Verlander, and he’s getting guys out by blowing them up and throwing hammer curveballs. For me, it’s like, OK, I don’t have that so I’m going to move it a little bit more and go the other way with it. Stuff that goes both directions. Every pitcher has success differently.” Still, at just 25-years-old, there is always room for improvement. For example, Worley has had troubles establishing a threatening change-up, which has been a work-in-progress for the past two spring trainings. “In spring last year with Philly, it was a matter of just getting a feel for the change-up, for consistency,” Worley said. “And today [Opening Day], I didn’t throw any because [the Phillies] were trying to get me to work on a split-finger change. I didn’t use it at all last year, so we just went with my strengths. Once I went down with the elbow injury, there were no strengths at all. I thought, why not?” You may be wondering how is it that a pitcher develops all through the minor leagues and comes away without a serviceable change-up in his arsenal. After all, it’s like a fastball only less so, right? Shouldn’t a pitcher just ease up on the gas and – voila! – change-up! The same question was recently posited to two Rockies pitchers who said that, in the minors, pitchers tend to fall back on what they are comfortable with or what they have had the highest level of success with. Far too often, that’s fastballs and breaking balls – repertoires conceived in high school and college to avoid aluminum bats, rather than induce soft contact. What’s more, if a pitcher is trying to develop a change during minor league games, a few bad results often sends the pitcher scrambling back to comfort zone to avoid his raw numbers from being dinged too much. Change-ups definitely take the right placement and require the necessary feel to put them where a pitcher wants. With command of the circle-change residing in the hand’s last three digits and the split-change’s control found in the unbalanced positioning between a spread index and middle finger, mastering a change-up is not as easy as simply throwing softer. Worley had attempted both versions.Download attachment: Worley2.jpg “It’s a feel pitch. Everybody’s different. There’re guys that can throw sinkers and there are guys that can’t. For me, I’m a guy who can throw a sinker and you try to teach it to people and some people can get it and some people can’t.” Some change-ups come naturally, but not without some work. Worley’s teammate Jared Burton fooled around with a change-up grip while with Western Carolina University and perfected it to the point where his “splange-up”, so named by the diving split-finger action of the pitch, became a dominating out-pitch for him. In 2012, opponents hit just .156 off of it and rang up 31 of his 55 strikeouts with the pitch, helping him earn his two-year extension. In the Hardball Times 2010 Baseball Annual, baseball researcher Dave Allen took a look at Pitchf/x data and examined where different pitches had success. His findings showed that a majority of pitchers kept their change-ups reserved for opposite-handed batters (i.e. a left-handed pitcher to a right-handed hitter) and only occasionally showing them to same-sided batters. Furthermore, change-ups that were thrown either down in the zone or away had the highest rate of success. When asked if he would deploy his change-up much in the similar manner as the rest of the league, Worley disagreed. “You can throw it to lefties or righties,” Worley said before launching into a detailed explanation. “It really depends more on pitch sequence. For righties, if you know you have a good one with good tumble to it and sink, that’s a good one to throw inside to a right-hander. Right-on-right. Lefties, same thing. Start over there or you can throw it at ‘em – kind of front-hip them. You know, Fernando Rodney does that really well with his changeup. It’s just a matter of how much your ball moves. If you throw a straight one, live on the corners with it but just know if it is too firm or they are sitting on it, it’s probably going to get hit.” You may know Fernando Rodney for his tilted brim but his change-up has been devastating and deserves your attention. While Trevor Hoffman may be remembered as having one of the greatest change-ups of all-time, Rodney’s version is possibly one of the best in the game today. In 2012, Rodney threw his changeup 396 times, according to Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x data base. Hitters tied themselves up in knots swinging at a pitch that carried an average of 13 miles per hour of difference from his fastball – nearly twice the differential as an average pitcher. Rodney has also perfected the arm action which mimics his fastball’s motion to the tee, causing hitters mass confusion and little time to deliberate on which pitch is coming off the mound. Opponents chased it out of the zone 44% of the time and missed on it completely on over a quarter of their swings. Worley knows his limits. He knows he doesn’t have Verlanderian stuff. He knows he needs to go in-out, up-down, fast-slow in order to keep hitters off of his pitches. Even a new change-up would not turn him into a strikeout pitcher but rather give him one more tool to use to keep opponents at bay. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gardy.jpg Ron Gardenhire is well on his way to his third-straight 90-loss season but Terry Ryan is not tipping his hand on whether or not the game’s second-longest tenured manager will be back in Minnesota in 2014. On with MLB Network Radio’s Power Alley show, Ryan suggested that injuries to key players played a substantial role in the Twins’ third consecutive losing season but he also shouldered a lot of the blame for the current state of the team. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “It’s been a difficult year in a lot of areas. We’ve had some injuries and certainly losing a few of these guys for stretches hasn’t helped, particularly a guy like Willingham,” Ryan told Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette on Thursday. “And now Mauer’s down. It seems like we’ve had one big piece here missing.” Willingham, who was a force in the middle of the Twins’ lineup in 2013, has missed 38 games in this season due to injuries and repair the meniscus in his knee. Because of the knee-related issues, when he was on the field, he hit a career-worst .210/.348/.385 in 425 plate appearances, a vast majority of those while hitting either third (232) or clean-up (179). Meanwhile Mauer, who had been the team’s best offensive contributor in 2013, has not seen action since August 19th and has missed now 22 games and counting. Of course, Ryan says, injuries are not special to just the Twins. “We have some good things happen here,” said Ryan, addressing some of what he viewed as positives. “Record-wise isn’t one of them but there are some things here – our bullpen has been pretty good up until, you know, when you overexpose those guys they’re gonna start to falter some, but they’ve been pretty good. And Perkins has anchored that bullpen staff. Regardless of ERA and those types of things, even Correia and Pelfrey, they’ve done what you might want to expect.” One aspect of the team’s performance that Ryan called out was the offense’s inability to score runs, a byproduct of having a .228 average with runners in scoring position. “And some of the offense has been my major concern because we haven’t scored runs,” Ryan noted. “We have had people all over out there and we just haven’t got them in. Now I have to take full responsibility for the roster and Gardy has continued to work and grind and his coaches are tremendous workers. So you take all that into consideration and I’m still at the point now when the season concludes we’ll sit down and figure this out and then we’ll move forward.” Ferrin then pressed Ryan, asking him pointblank if the team is leaning one way or another but Ryan deferred. “Yeah, that is going to have to wait, Mike. It’s one of those things where I’ve promised ownership and our people here and Gardy and the staff down there that once the season concludes we’ll get together and make a final call.” Ryan remains mum on Gardenhire's status but this winter figures to be a busy offseason -- one that could include finding Gardy's replacement. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Denard Span.jpg One of the questions posed on our new TwinsDaily.com message board was how the Twins will account for 200 runs in their runs scored/runs allowed differential over the 2011 season which would bring the club back towards 81 wins and beyond. On the defensive/pitching side of the ledger, Minnesota allowed 804 runs – the second-highest in the American League behind only Baltimore. At the plate, they managed to score just 619 – the second-fewest ahead of only Seattle. It is simple enough: In order to become a competitive team again, this year’s squad needs to shave off runs allowed and increase the runs scored. Yes, the 2011 Twins scored less frequently than your standard World of Warcraft participant but there are plenty of reasons why fans should anticipate a boost in runs scored in 2012. One such reason more offense by the Twins should be expected is because of the overhaul at the top of the order. From this chart below, you can see that based on a team’s ability to get their first two hitters in the order on base regularly, their scoring tendency increased: [TABLE=width: 192, align: center] [TD=colspan: 3]Lead-off & Two-hitter (2011) [/TD] Team On-Base Percentage Runs BOS 0.369 875 NYY 0.355 867 TEX 0.351 855 TBR 0.340 707 TOR 0.335 743 KCR 0.334 730 CWS 0.327 654 LAA 0.321 667 DET 0.320 787 CLE 0.317 704 BAL 0.317 708 OAK 0.316 645 MIN 0.304 619 SEA 0.295 556 [/TABLE] Of course, there are a lot of variables that go into a team’s ability to generate runs that extend just beyond the first two hitters. For example, while the Rays were able to set their table extremely well, the team’s bottom of the order, spots seven through nine, hit a paltry .216/.219/.330 throughout the season. This top heavy production likely cost Tampa some runs over the year. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers had the opposite effect. Their top of the order, starting with Austin Jackson, had a difficult time getting on base. Instead of getting runners on from the top of the lineup, the middle of Detroit’s order – hitter’s three through six – mashed to the tune of .305/.369/.482. This led to 787 runs, the fourth-highest in the American League last year. With the exception of those outliers, a team’s offense and their performance at the top of the order is fairly intertwined. Obviously, a team like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers have a consistent lineup from top to bottom while teams like the Orioles, A’s and Mariners had holes everywhere. A team bursting with hitting is likely going to score more runs. In many ways, the Twins were no different from those bottom-feeding clubs. Injuries diluted the lineup so much it became as potent as a watered-down liquor bottle in the cabinet of a high school kid’s parents’ house. Even with a thin lineup, the 2011 Twins top of the order lacked any means to jumpstart the offense. Denard Span started the season off well but the concussion greatly reduced his production before he was sidelined. His replacement, Ben Revere, was learning on the job and posted a .310 on-base percentage – a very lackluster rate for a leadoff man. In the two-spot, Alexi Casilla posted a .322 on-base percentage but he too was injured and the spot in the order was given most often to Trevor Plouffe, who had a .305 on-base percentage. So even with the dilapidated lineup in the season’s second-half the Twins did not provide the middle-of-the-order much of an opportunity to drive in runs. It is clear that if the team wants to compete in 2011, they need to score runs. With Joe Mauer claiming to be in excellent physical condition this spring and Josh Willingham entering into the picture, the heart of the order should be at the very least incrementally strong than it was a year ago. The trick is having a pair of hitters that can be on base for the big sticks to do their work. While he admits there have been some good days and bad days when it comes to his recovery, for now, there is optimism that Span is ready to go. An owner of a career .361 on-base percentage, when he has been healthy, he’s been one of the game’s best lead-off hitters. Even though he has had a down year in 2010, he appeared to be on the path to a rebound season in 2011: Prior to his collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, he was holding an OBP north of his current career rate. Following Span in the order will likely be new addition Jamey Carroll. Carroll is a prototypical number two hitter – able to get on base as well as move runners over by hitting behind them. Provided that he can play serviceable defense in the twilight of his career, he should be a solid contributor out of the two spot. With Span and Carroll as the lineup’s opening acts, the Twins should be climbing the on-base chart and, as such, should be scoring more runs and thereby closing that important 200-run differential chasm. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Deduno.jpg Don’t look now, but Samuel Deduno has not walked a batter yet this spring. I know, I know: It has been five meaningless spring innings. Give it time, right? And, sure, four of those innings were against Spain in the World Baseball Classic, a team whose lineup was littered with players lacking even minor league deals. Pump the brakes, Parker. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The reality is that last year he handed out more free passes than the gals standing out front of Dream Girls gentlemen’s club. With 121 innings split between Rochester and the Twins, he walked 75, or 14% of all the hitters he faced. Five measly innings of not throwing four balls in a given at-bat is not going to change that fact. His inability to work ahead of hitters put Deduno in many precarious situations in 2012. A whopping 8% of his match-ups resulted in 3-0 counts (league average being 5%). Overall, hitters knew his reputation and refrained from chasing much of anything outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs.com Deduno got opponents to chase after just 23.5% of all out-of-zone offerings – the second lowest rate in baseball with a minimum of 70 innings pitched. Here’s the catch: Despite being behind hitters frequently, he was not damaged significantly. He walked plenty, but teams were unable to put the ball in play sharply. Thanks to his incredible movement of his fastball which had an MLB-best 67% ground ball rate, the opposition showed they simply could not square up. Even in situations where they should have an advantage, they were unsuccessful. While the rest of the American League’s pitching staffs had a .299/.465/.513 batting line when behind in the count, Deduno produced a walk-heavy yet respectable .244/.524/.389 line. With his nearly unhittable fastball (not to mention decent curve), Deduno has the foundations to be a very good pitcher. The giant elephant on his chest is his incapability to throw the ball over the plate consistently. Behind the small sample size, there may be some reason why he is throwing the ball better. Look how free and easy his motion is – particularly his finish - while in the World Baseball Classic compared to last season: Download attachment: Sam2.gif Download attachment: Sam3.gif Download attachment: Sam4.gif Notice the “Francisco Liriano” twirl with his back leg after his follow through. He is finishing higher with his upper body. This is the follow through of someone who is not over-thinking, not aiming, not over-throwing on every pitch. He’s just letting it fly, as they say. Maybe that is all that it takes with him to achieve that next level. Then again, who is to say that this will carry over to the season? At 29 years old, he’s had numerous opportunities to try to get his walk rate in order and failed. Frankly, Deduno represents a fringe player; one whose skill set can get him near the top level but never fully entrench him into a starting rotation. That said, it is still important for a an organization to have a pitcher like Deduno available. As Russell Charlton’s research at Baseball Prospectus showed that pitchers who have had previous injuries have high odds of a reoccurrence. For example, pitchers who have had elbow injuries have had a 27.4% chance of re-injury. That means three-fifths of the projected rotation - Vance Worley, Scott Diamond and Mike Pelfrey – stand the likelihood of spending time on the DL in 2013. If Deduno is able to harness his control, he could be a valuable contributor in some capacity. Deduno will get the start for the Dominican Republic on Thursday, taking on a far superior Team USA lineup. Watch his command, walk total and scrutinize his mechanics – if he is throwing free and easy, it could translate to a rough day for Team USA in the WBC. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Danny Valencai.jpg After punishing spring training pitchers and promoting himself this offseason, Danny Valencia’s output in the regular season has left something to be desired. Coming off a down year in 2011 and made promises of rebounding and rededicating himself for this season. Rather than coming out the gates to a hot start, he now finds himself on the hot seat poised to lose starts. What has gone wrong for the Twins third baseman? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In 2011, I attributed his sudden decline to a bit of the “sophomore slump monster” – one in which his line drive rate remained relatively consistent with his previous season but the amount of hits that found grass declined significantly. In 2010, he held a solid .771 batting average on his line drives. This past season his batting average on liners dropped to .651, well below the league average. The theory was, if he produced line drives at the near 20% rate he had over the past two seasons, this would likely equal out for the better. Unfortunately, both Valencia’s plate discipline and his wellspring of ropes have substantially decline so far in 2012. Addressing the latter first, Valencia has traded the once prevalent liners for a bunch of bounding grounders and harmless infield pop-ups. To date, his line drive rate has checked in slightly below the 14% mark while his ground ball rate has ballooned to 52%. However, when he does get underneath the ball, he has provided little damage, knocking 33% of his fly balls to infielders. Meanwhile, Valencia’s patience at the plate is about as thin as a fungo bat. In addition to swinging at a high clip this season, he’s chasing a heavy volume of pitches outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs.com’s plate discipline numbers, he has offered at 42% of all out-of-zone pitches, well above the league’s 29% norm. With that lack of zone discipline, it is clear why he has only coaxed one walk compared to 17 strikeouts. Between his contact and his plate discipline, the outcome for him has been laughably bad: a .220/.230/.339 hitting line that has incited calls from fans to see more Sean Burroughs, who has not seen regular playing time since 2005, on the field. How did it get so bad for Valencia? The Twins coaching staff attempted to correct a hitch this offseason, which they said added a longer loop to his swing, as well as encourage his to stop fixating on pulling the ball and hoping that it would improve his .246 batting average in 2011. This spring 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey spoke with Valencia who claimed that one of his goals this year was to use the entire field better. And, so far, Valencia is failing at that objective. Thus far in 2012, heading into Tuesday night’s game, Valencia had put 44 balls into play and has taken seven of those to the opposite field. While the 16% opposite field rate isn’t disappointing in itself (after all, in his solid 2010 season, he went oppo just 19% of the time), it is that pitchers have consistently baited the Twins third baseman into swinging at pitches on the outer-half of the strike zone and yet he has pulled the ball at a high margin (52%). Compare these two swing charts. In his first stint at the major league level (on the left), the Valencia scouting report was not completely disseminated and, as such, he received a high portion of inside and middle of the zone type pitches. In 2012 (on the right), the word has spread throughout the league and opponents know that Valencia is susceptible when being pitched away – specifically from right-handed pitchers. Download attachment: Valencia_Pitch Charts.jpg (from TexasLeaguers.com) This season, with pitchers attacking the outside portion of the plate, Valencia has maintained a questionable aggressive approach (swinging at a career-high 47% clip) and has also kept his pull-happy tendencies in spite of opponents begging him to go with the pitch. Because he is swinging at so many pitches on the outer-half of the plate while trying to pull them, it is easy to see why his groundball rate has swelled so quickly. Valencia has demonstrated that he can be a high average, moderate power hitter in the minors and in segments of his major league career. What is needed is a re-calibration of the strike zone. Perhaps his early slump has caused him to press harder at the plate, swing more frequently with disregard for location, and forget the main focus of the off-season – to hit the ball to all fields. Let’s remember that it is early in the season and there is plenty of time to turn it all around. Still, with his continued insistence on pulling almost every pitch, frustration is mounting from the manager and Valencia’s playing time is quite possibly hanging by a very thin thread at this juncture. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: buxton+kcrg.jpg Stop me if you have heard this before but Byron Buxton is doing stupid good stuff on the baseball field. Already Buxton has proven that he is far and above the level of the competition in the Midwest League. He is leading the league in on-base percentage (.431), slugging (.561), runs scored (65) and weighted on-base average (.422). More conventionally, he is second in batting average (.344) and triples (8), and third in walks (40). That doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of his defensive capabilities and baserunning prowess. Buxton is having the best performance by an outfielder in Iowa since Shoeless Joe Jackson came waltzing through the cornfield (or at least since Mike Trout anyways). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] During Fox Sports North’s road trip to Cedar Rapids last week, televisions in the big cities were able to tune in and see what amounts to one of the at any level this year. In case the video clip does not allow you to fully appreciate the difficulty of this catch, please follow along Buxton’s route to the kill what was most assuredly an extra base hit coming off the bat. From mid-center field, Buxton races to the gap, hooks at the end of the route, and makes a leaping dive just before the warning track to send the hitter back to the dugout, shaking his head in disbelief and dismay. This play would have netted him 15,000 UZRs in my book. Download attachment: BuxtonsRoute.jpg In fact, thanks to his performance, Buxton has put Cedar Rapids back on the map for the first time since, well, since the time someone actually penciled Cedar Rapids on a map. Buxton has more speed than the entire Fast & Furious franchise. He has more tools than Home Depot. His future is so bright that we will excuse him when he wears sunglasses indoors, even though that is the douchiest move ever. The Twins and scouts will tell you that they knew this would his path from day one. From the moment they laid eyes on him kicking up dust rounding the bases in the Georgia clay they knew he was special. When it comes to drafting players, Terry Ryan said that the scouts are looking for skills rather than results. Buxton, said Ryan, had all the skills. Not some: all the skills. It would only be a matter of time before this kid turns into a full-blown super-duper-star. Of course, that’s not the case. It takes plenty of conditioning during his ascent through the minor leagues to develop any player into a major-league ready contributor. Rarely can a player simply advance without the necessary prep time and work. While Buxton came to the Twins organization teeming with talent, there are adjustments the 19-year-old has made – particularly to his approach at the plate. Prior to his draft Buxton was on the radars of all the prospect hounds. In this , we see Buxton, a few months away from his national selection, putting on a display in front of scouts: http://i44.tinypic.com/msyhhk.gif Look at the length of that stride. With an upright and open stance, Buxton has a significant leg lift and then brings it in. This generates power but leaves him susceptible to more polished pitching. Now, compare that approach to his current model, a little over a year later, in this clip supplied by Heinitz Photography: http://i41.tinypic.com/2rh39lu.gif Buxton now exhibits a widened base with little stride in his swing. Mechanically speaking, this reduces the potential head movement and should improve contact -- which is very important for someone with his speed. He will soon be the Florida State League’s problem – whose pitchers are just recovering from the destruction left behind by Hurricane Sano – but Buxton’s ability to make large scale adjustments to improve his long-term effectiveness bodes well. While the scouts get a lot of adulation for finding and signing Buxton, credit as well goes to the Twins instructors and coaches for refining what could be a once-in-a-lifetime-type talent. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Phil Hughes.jpg Phil Hughes has been somewhat of an indecisive pitcher over his career when it comes to his repertoire. Year in and year out, there has been an inability to choose a secondary pitch. While it has mainly been a big, slow curve, it has seen several variations followed by abandonment in 2013 in favor of a slider. Hughes’ Year of the Slider produced mixed results as opponents struggled against his new weapon in the season’s first-half, hitting just .160 off it, but then the competition zeroed in and smashed it around to the tune of .360 in the last half of the year. This spring, after a year of opting for the hard slider, 2014 will be the Return of the Curve (also a great follow-up single for Mark Morrison). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If you google “Phil Hughes curveball”, you will find several pieces dating back to 2009 that are dedicated to his bender. When Hughes was one of the game’s top prospects in the Yankees’ farm system, Baseball America raved about curveball. Prior to the 2007 season, as River Avenue Blues cited in 2010, Baseball America’s prospectors were elated when Hughes decided to forget the slider for the big curve: The bipolar relationship with his curveball followed him throughout his major league career as well. In 2009, the Yankees asked him to change his curve from the low-70s loop for a more “power curve” as Hughes described it. It would be fashioned off the same curve that Mike Mussina and AJ Burnett threw at that time, with the same arm speed as his fastball. After averaging 71 and 72-miles per hour on the curve in 2007 and 2008, respectively, he was averaging 77 on the curve in 2009. Two years later in 2011, Hughes was again trying to reinvent his curve. After not getting the results he wanted on the pitch, Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild made the suggestion to switch his grip from the knuckle or spike-curve to a more standard curve grip. The reasoning was that Hughes felt opponents were tracking the pitch out of his hand, and this change would give him that harder break the Yankees believed would benefit him. In 2012, he admitted to throwing two variations of the pitch, one from a different arm slot to change things up. Last year, his concern that hitters were picking up the curve out of his hand forced him,at the behest of the Yankees, towards the slider to allow him to throw more east-west across the strike zone. Overall, the curve never became the big weapon that Baseball America projected almost a decade ago. Since 2009, only 105 of his 575 strikeouts have come on his curve -- a vast majority these have come on the fastball (337). Part of that is simply a pitch selection decision, since he threw his fastball three times more often in two strike counts. Is that because of lack of faith in his secondary pitch or just knowing his fastball is superior? Did the Yankees’ constant tinkering add to that as well? Download attachment: Phil Hughes2.jpg In addition to returning to the curve, it also appears Hughes will be using the spike-curve again (as seen in his Twins spring training debut photo above). With the exception of the 2011 alteration to the standard grip, Hughes has favored this variation over his career. What’s more, from 2009 to the end of 2012, ESPN/tru media’s pitch database shows that his curve has dropped -8.2 inches, one of the biggest drops in the game. That has not equaled success, to be sure, as his well-hit average of .174 has been one of the highest among qualified starters (and well above the curveball average of .137). The Twins are eager to see if Hughes can rekindle the curve, believing the change in speed will help him overall. We don’t know how it will work, but we know that Hughes has been down this road before with mixed results. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pelfrey.jpg When the New York Mets drafted Mike Pelfrey out of Wichita State with the ninth overall pick in 2005, their scouting department was obviously enamored by his big body, big fastball and big projectability. He would develop a breaking ball and become the ace Flushing had not seen in a while. Of course, the latter never happened for Pelfrey; instead he struggled to find a semblance of a swing-and-miss pitcher, became the embodied disappointment of Mets fans, had his elbow ligament snap and wound up in Minnesota. Quite the different career path than was envisioned for him eight years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, a free agent coming off a middling season (5-13, 5.19 ERA), CBSsports.com’s Jon Heyman, who has a close relationship with agent Scott Boras, reports that the Twins have extended a multi-year offer: So… [slams laptop closed. Goes for a long walk.] This is all confusing. The Twins recognize they have a serious problem with their starting rotation - a rotation that has failed to miss bats at a historic rate in the modern era - but continue to pursue the same type of starting pitcher that has created the problem to begin with. As mentioned before, due to his lack of secondary offerings, even a fully healthy Mike Pelfrey fails to miss bats at even the league average rate. Over his career, he has a swinging strike rate of 5.9% while the rest of the game has been closer to 9%. I thought we had an understanding here. I thought Jack Goin, the Twins’ manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, had sat Terry Ryan down and explained that strikeouts were not only NOT fascist, they were good and that having a lot of them made your starting rotation better. So, why Pelfrey again? The objective should be to look at your 2013 starting rotation real closely then target all the pitchers whose skill sets are the exact opposite. Ok, that may be a large overcorrection but, still, why Pelfrey again? It is entirely possible that Pelfrey’s agent is using Heyman and the Twins to drum up additional interest in his client. After all, the Twins have not confirmed that there is a two-year offer out to Pelfrey right now. That being said, at the end of last year the Twins coaching staff and Terry Ryan lauded Pelfrey’s second-half improvements. Manager Ron Gardenhire said in September that he believed a lot of Pelfrey’s problems in the later part of the year, such has too many 3-2 counts and long delays between pitches, were easily fixable. The Twins said they liked seeing Pelfrey’s velocity increase, which it did from 91.9 in the first-half to 92.7 in the second-half. Gardenhire mentioned specifically that Pelfrey’s secondary pitches improved over the course of the year as his elbow healed, which was true in that opponents had a .700 OPS against his secondary pitches in the first-half while they had a .588 OPS in the second. The biggest thing that may be the key as to why the Twins would entertain the notion of bringing Pelfrey back is the huge swing in a statistic that hides behind paywalls called “well-hit average”. This statistic tries to add description to a pitcher’s (or hitter’s) batted balls that goes beyond just the line drive, ground ball and fly ball categories. Video scouts from various companies such as Inside Edge or BIS log whether that ground ball out was smoked to second or a harmless chopper. In theory, when used in conjunction with a regularly distributed stat like batting average on balls in play (BABIP), it should provide insight as to whether a pitcher’s inflated/deflated BABIP was truly unlucky or not. In Pelfrey’s case, consider the difference on balls in play between the first half of the year and the second half. During the first stretch, Pelfrey was banged around to the tune of .313/.359/.478 over 16 games. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info Department, he carried a well-hit average of .222 -- the highest among all starters with the exception of Joe Blanton (.235). That’s a straight-up beating by hitters. Taking the well-hit average into account, there is no risk of miscategorizing his first-half as “unlucky”. Several things played a factor in these results but a recovering rebuilt elbow was likely the most significant hindrance. Admittedly, Pelfrey lacks the necessary secondary offerings to be a truly effective top-of-the-rotation starter, but his strong assortment of fastballs lacked command post-surgery which should be an expected side effect in Tommy John recoveries. So, after 16 starts and a back strain that took him down for two weeks, Pelfrey actually rebounded quite well over the second half. Over his last 13 games, hitters posted a much improved .284/.356/.374 batting line that was built on a well-hit average of .134, one of the league’s best in the latter portion of the season. I know. That doesn’t feel right, right? I triple-checked to make sure I had the stats sorted correctly. Did hitters really not hit the ball as well off Pelfrey as they did against such pitching dignitaries as Ricky Nolasco (.137), Hasashi Iwakuma (.140) or Francisco Liriano (.143) in the second-half of the season, as the aforementioned well-hit statistic suggests? Several things to mention here: (1) Because this statistic resides mainly behind paywalls, the well-hit average has not been vetted thoroughly by sabr-minded people. This means studies have not been conducted to determine how the well-hit average fluctuates from year-to-year. Is Pelfrey’s second-half decrease a true indication that he was pitching better and that this performance will continue? (2) Even with the significantly improved well-hit average, the end product was an ugly 1-6 record with a rotund 4.76 ERA and a near .300 batting average in the second-half that contributed to the overall blah year. (3) Who knows if the Twins have examined him from this perspective. The organization clearly has access to these reports so they should put this into consideration if thinking about r-signing him. If they have broken it down to this level, I would be more accepting of an eventual Mike Pelfrey re-signing. In the end, going through this exercise reassured me that there is some small, faint glimmer of hope that the notion of bringing back Mike Pelfrey is not a completely bonehead move. If he signs for a two-year, $8M per deal similar to the average annual value of Jason Vargas, Pelfrey has proven in the past that he can be a mid-rotation guy (albeit one without the sexy strikeouts) and the second-half numbers could be indications that he will be that again in 2014. But that’s it, that’s the ceiling: a mid-rotation guy. The Twins rotation and fans need more than that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: JoeMauer.jpg After a slow start in the season’s opening week, Joe Mauer was once again cracking line drives – right on schedule – but has more recently found himself in one of the worst stretches of offensive baseball of his career and quite possibly the worst since he was a fetus. Pardon the arbitrary endpoints, but from April 6 to April 20, Mauer had collected 18 hits in 35 at bats (a whopping .514 batting average). In that time, the Twins catcher was blistering the baseball to the opposite field, accumulating five of his seven extra base hits in that direction, including both of his home runs (per the Mauer norm). Then, as quick as the flick of his wrists for an outer-half offering, his production disappeared. Since April 21, he has he has gotten just three hits (including Tuesday night’s single off of Verlander) in his last 33 at bats, making this nine-game span’s batting average a puny .090. According to Fangraphs.com’s Splits Leaderboard, over the last seven days Mauer’s .077 batting average is the fourth-worst in baseball, besting only Drew Stubbs, Ryan Raburn and Adam LaRoche. While it may be easy to dismiss this output as a product of the baseball gods correcting his absurd balls in play average over the previous stretch, Mauer’s drought may be structurally based. Far be it from me to deconstruct one of the smoothest, most mechanically sound swings the game has ever seen. That would be like a St Cloud State art major trying to criticize the painting on the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel. Ron Coomer, on the other hand, presented his thoughts on what has suddenly happened to this beautiful motion. During last night’s broadcast on Fox Sports North, Coomer observed that Mauer is opening up slightly, thereby elongating his swing. This, he said, altered the contact point to some extent and has been causing him to not square up on the ball. It is hard to see clear evidence of this in available video clips yet there is no denying Mauer has recently taken some of his most un-Mauerian cuts ever at pitches and those have resulted in very few line drives over his last 33 at bats. In fact, last night’s line drive single was just the second line drive he has hit since April 21. Hell, over the weekend we nearly witnessed him pop out to the infield – an event that has occurred just once in the last three seasons. Consider this awkward swing in this screen grab from his strike out last night: Download attachment: MauerVVerlander.jpg Notice how far Mauer’s head moved offline in order to track Verlander’s curveball. Full disclosure, Justin Verlander makes a lot of great hitters look stupid. That said, Joe Mauer - with his career 1.072 OPS against Verlander - is typically not one of them. To Coomer’s point, Mauer has taken more swings at pitches middle and in during this cold streak compared to his hot streak in which he had swung at more pitches middle and away – the kinds he was driving to left field. Part of the reason for the increase on the swings on the inner-half of the plate could be due to pulling off the ball a bit. Download attachment: Mauer.gif Teams have also changed their approach with him. Perhaps the reports from the advanced scouts indicated that there was less concern with Mauer at this point because, beginning in the Rangers series, opponents simply stopped missing the strike zone. In his 14 games leading up to April 26, pitchers had landed 59% of their pitches for strikes against him. Since then, that rate has shot up to 76%. So, he has been seeing tons of potentially hittable pitches. What is going on with Minnesota’s $184 Million Dollar Hit Man? The simplest answer is that it is a short time frame and everyone is susceptible to these statistical anomalies in a small sample size, which in this case, is 38 plate appearances. Within that regression lie a handful of drivers that are pulling his numbers down – a subtle mechanical flaw here, poor swing decisions there and strike zone aggressiveness of the opposition. Success in baseball is fluid. Those like Mauer who have been able to hit consistently over .300 in their careers are able to do so because they can make changes and corrections relatively quickly. If we all just take a deep breath, at some point in the near future he will snap out of this dry spell. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hughes.jpg There are plenty of reasons to celebrate this impending Phil Hughes deal as a coup for the Twins. After all, Hughes is a relatively young pitcher who has potential upside and, as a fly ball pitcher, he finally gets to leave the launching pad in the Bronx (not to mention, away from the beasts of the east). For an average annual value of $8M, a value he has eclipsed in three of the past five seasons according to Fangraphs.com, it is hard to find a downside. In terms of the configurations of Yankee Stadium and Target Field, there’s no question that Yankee Stadium’s layout vastly favors the hitter, particularly for the left-handed swingers. In the Bronx, the right field porch seemingly looms just a few feet past the infield while in Minnesota, Target Field’s right field walls require distance and height to clear safely. So it should not come as a surprise that, in terms of true home runs distance measured by HitTrackerOnline.com, Yankee Stadium’s average home run distance has been 386.2 feet while Target Field has been at 394.1 feet. As Hughes’s former Yankee teammate Nick Swisher once observed about the Twins’ home park, it takes a man to put one out to the right field seats. The natural conclusion as applied to Hughes is that the transition from Yankee Stadium (where 76 of his career 112 home runs have been served) to Target Field will yield significant improvements to his results. In theory, even if a few of the would-be home runs in New York become off-the-wall doubles in Minnesota, Hughes’ totals figure to be better. While the statistically inclined community will nod at that hypothesis, those in New York who have witnessed Hughes’ career in person -- both those who emphasize stats and otherwise -- portray him differently. Part of that may be due to the overhyped expectations of a prospect coupled with various injuries that have taken him out of commission. Nationally, Baseball Prospectus’ annuals have documented a telling curve on how Hughes has been viewed. In the 2006 edition, there was excitement surrounding what could be a 20-year-old starter in the Yankees organization who had the potential to reach Double-A, a considerable feat in the deep New York system. By 2013 the staff from BP summarized the sentiments by writing “If Yankees fans could only forget that Hughes was ever expected to be an ace, they might be happier with him.” Sandwiched between 2006 and 2013, the analyses focused on Hughes’ oft-injured resume and swimming upstream against the hitter-friendly environs of Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium or no Yankee Stadium, when hitters have connected, the ball has jumped off their bats. Since 2012, his well-hit average against of .202 is much higher than the league average of .179. While balls have not become souvenirs on the road as frequently, teams have been able to knock him around during stretches of his career which is why he has not exactly matched his prospect hype. The scouting report on Hughes: As goes his fastball, so goes Hughes. His fastball has been unquestionably a solid weapon for him over the last two seasons. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he has had the best strike percentage with his fastball among all qualified pitchers at 72.2% (minimum 500 thrown). Attacking the strike zone is something the Twins coaching staff has encouraged from their pitchers but, unlike the consortium of Twins starters the past several years, Hughes has missed bats with his heater as well as just throwing it over the plate. Since 2012, Hughes' 18.6% miss percentage on his fastball has been the 14th-highest in baseball. To put that in perspective, the rest of the league carries a 14.6% miss percentage on their fastballs. Of course, it is when he does not have the command or hitters don’t miss his fastball that he begins to have issues. Lacking the plus secondary offering to miss bats at a high level, if opponents are able to sit on the fastball, they have hit it hard. In the past two years, hitters have levied a .226 well-hit average off his fastball, compared to the .209 MLB average. Not having a complementary secondary pitch has been frequently cited as the reason Hughes has never accumulated strikeouts in bunches (a career rate of 19%, equaling the MLB average) and why his fastball has so often been launched deep into the New York night. Hughes changed his approach in 2013, eschewing a slow curve that was hit hard for a harder slider to alter his style from a north-south pitcher (fastball/curve) to having a pitch that runs from side-to-side. Previously armed with a cutter, the terrible outcome with that pitch convinced him to reduce its use and he increased the usage of his slider to 23.8%. Early, the results were strong. In the first-half of last season, opponents hit just .160 off the newly resurrected pitch. However, perhaps with the element of surprise removed, in the second-half of the season, hitters began to recognize the slider more and hit .324 on it. So while the upside involves Hughes’ results being improved from pitching in a new home, the downside is that he continues to have a second-pitch identity crisis and has not found a suitable partner for his fastball. The limited success of his repertoire has made critics think he is better suited for the bullpen where his two-pitch combination can thrive in short stints. (Consider this: last season Hughes averaged just five innings per start and, over his career, he has been just a half-inning better.) Where does this leave Hughes’ future with the Twins? Going back to the 2013 Baseball Prospectus comment, it is the hype that clouded the previous judgement on Hughes rather than seeing him for what he is, which is an above average starter. Certainly injuries that have plagued him throughout his professional career could come into play again and his arsenal could give him fits, but he should provide value equal to or exceeding the team-friendly contract over three years even if he simply matches his performance in New York -- in a park environment better suited for his skill set, no less. The Twins should come out winners on this one. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Francisco+Liriano+Chicago+Cubs+v+Minnesota+oGVu6ac_L_hl.jpg Ever since his demotion to the bullpen, Francisco Liriano has been back to his new-old self. In 37.1 innings, Liriano has posted a much improved 2.41 ERA, limited hitters to a .157 average against and has struck out 40 while walking just 14 thanks to rekindling his relationship with his dirty, dirty slider. Nevertheless, even with the improvement, the Twins front office has to be considering moving the enigmatic starter at the upcoming trade deadline because of the current state of the organization and the $12 million price tag required to offer him in arbitration in order to secure a compensatory draft pick. If the Twins are committed to rebuilding and strengthening the organization for several years instead of just next year, trading the rejuvenated Liriano makes complete sense. The question is what sort of return could the Twins expect at the deadline? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] FoxSports.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted yesterday that his club sources told him that officials expect “robust” interest in Liriano based on his recent performance. With the added Wild Card berth granted this year, clearly more teams will consider themselves buyers rather than sellers and the deadline. And, if what Morosi said is accurate, Liriano’s value is elevated by a number of clubs competing for his service and the Twins return should be expectedly more substantial. Of course, it is not quite that cut-and-dry. For starters, Liriano’s impending free agency undoubtedly drives his return down. After all, we’re not talking a Cliff Lee/CC Sabathia-type track record that would merit a team unloading multiple prospects for the half-season rental. Liriano has just six consecutive starts in which he’s pitched well. Furthermore, even though he has not shown it this season, he remains an injury concern. Since 2001, there seems to be just a few trades that occurred at the non-waiver deadline that are comparable to the Twins if they choose to move Liriano by himself (if they add players to the trade, all bets are off). On July 28th, 2010, the 56-44 Chicago White Sox were clinging to a one-game lead over the Twins and looking to further distance themselves by adding some starting pitching. Sox GM Kenny Williams targeted the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hard-throwing right-handed, 26-year-old Edwin Jackson. Jackson, who had worked 397.1 innings with a 27-20 record along with a 3.99 ERA the previous two seasons, was not finding the National League nearly as accommodating as Tampa Bay or Detroit. In 21 starts with the Arizona club in 2010, he went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA while walking four batters per nine innings – his highest rate since 2007. Despite that performance, Chicago’s lust for a winner and Jackson’s recent success combined with a 94 mile per hour fastball incited Williams to pull the trigger by sending their third and eighth highest ranking prospects according to Baseball America in right-handed starter Dan Hudson and lefty David Holmberg. Hudson has been extremely valuable in Arizona, going 26-14 in 52 starts with a very nice 3.47 ERA while striking out 273 and walking just 78 in 345.1 innings pitched. Holmberg, meanwhile, has turned 20 years old this year but is a fast-moving prospect in the Dback’s system. In his stop at high-A Visalia he struck out 86 batters in 78.1 innings and was bumped to AA Mobile. What’s the likelihood of this scenario playing out for the Twins? I wouldn’t hold my breath. Unlike Liriano, Jackson was under contract at the time and due to make a reasonable sum of $8.35 million in 2011 and he had also never showed much injury potential making his acquisition seemingly less risky than Liriano. Still, never underestimate a GM who reeks of desperation for a winner, as Williams proved, who was willing to flip a productive and club-controlled pitcher for one they felt could contribute immediately. If the Jackson-for-Hudson trade is at one end of the potential spectrum (the “hey, wouldn’t it be great if…” end of the spectrum) at the other end is the Kyle Lohse-to-Philly trade in 2007 (the “hey, this feels about right” end). That year, the Phillies, who had finished second in the NL East for three consecutive seasons and were denied playoff berths, wanted to improve their starting rotation. Curiously enough, they tapped into Cincinnati’s Lohse who had been traded from Minnesota to the Reds one year ago to the day. In Lohse, the Phillies were receiving a 28-year-old right-hander who had seen a steady decline in his performance since his solid 2003 season – although his record while in Cincinnati was more reflective of his lack of run support, receiving below average offense in his time with the Reds. In exchange, Philadelphia shipped a left-handed pitcher who was tearing up the lower ranks of their system: 23-year-old Matt Maloney. Although Lohse is nothing like Liriano in terms of style – Liriano’s ceiling and floor is wildly different than Lohse’s had been up to that point - their situations share similarities. For instance, when traded, Lohse would be paid a prorated share of his $4.2 million salary, not all too different from Liriano’s $5.5 million. Both were reasonable contracts to assume but potential trade partners likely recognize that the current teams (the Reds and Twins respectively) were not planning on retaining either pitcher. As Twins fans know by now, Maloney never quite panned out but back in 2007, he was an interesting commodity for Cincinnati. As Baseball America pointed out, Maloney had just come off a season in the South Atlantic League in which he was named Pitcher of the Year thanks to leading the league in wins (16), innings (169) and strikeouts (180) and finishing a close second in ERA (2.03). Since they were going to lose Lohse to free agency likely anyways, landing an intriguing arm in exchange seemed like a fair compensation. Obviously, it is hard to predict what the market with do for Liriano with a month remaining to the deadline. If he continues his current output, it is easy to see more teams jumping into the fray (such as the Toronto Blue Jays who Nick Nelson wrote about today) and perhaps push offers up towards the Daniel Hudson level. However, if he falters a bit, his stock likely drops to the Maloney-prospect-gamble range. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Main.jpg Not long ago, we had to sell my grandmother’s house. As part of the purging process, a box filled with newspapers from the Minnesota Twins’ championship seasons in 1987 and 1991 were discovered. The newspapers, still reeking of the stale cigarette smoke that saturated her entire dwelling, are pure gold.(1) As the resident family baseball-phile, the archive was entrusted to me. Without much to do with the box, other than keep it away from fire - paper’s worst enemy - the only other thing I could think about doing with them is sharing the important snippets. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Today we go back to the happenings of October 12, 1987, as reported from the October 13, 1987 Star Tribune. **** When closer Jeff Readon corralled the Matt Nokes comebacker and ran it towards the looming Kent Hrbek before flipping him the ball and then following his throw into his first baseman’s arms, the Twins were poised to return to baseball’s biggest stage 22 years after being beaten by the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the Twins clubhouse at Tiger Stadium, Star Tribune staff writer Doug Grow followed the team’s alcohol-soaked celebration. Gaetti would finish the championship series 6-for-20 (.300) but have two home runs in the first game of the series(2). Those two were collected off Detroit’s starter and big mid-season acquisition, Doyle Alexander, who cost the Tigers one John Smoltz. Following the game, staff writers Mark Vancil and Dennis Brackin got Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek’s feelings on being one step away from being the best in baseball: The disbelief in a team that had squeaked out an 85-77 season - one that had gone 29-52 away from the covered stadium - and had somehow conquered the 98-win Tigers, on their turf no less, permeated everywhere. Columnist Jim Klobuchar summarized the thoughts on this ragtag bunch nicely: Neat. Outdated fat jokes. As for Gaetti, yes, he had one of his worst offensive months of the season in September, finishing the final month with a .243/.287/.393 slash after hitting .260/.307/.505 prior to that. Certainly, the Twins stunned plenty of people including former sports columnist turned radio host Dan Barreiro. This Barreiro had been incredibly incredulous that this assortment could withstand the onslaught of the favored Tigers - specifically because of the Twins’ tendency of being “domesick” when away from the home confines. Barreiro lists twenty reasons why this series victory was improbable including: Barreiro, always the instigator, would also point out that manager Tom Kelly’s gamble to move starter Bert Blyleven up to Game 5 rather than go with Joe Niekro or Les Straker paid off. Had it backfired and the Tigers come away with a win, Kelly would have been forced to use either Niekro or Straker in Game 6 and have Frank Viola as the insurance policy in the event of Game 7, rather than just set his rotation for a more conventional Blyleven/Viola combination for the series’ last two games. The moral of the story? Tom Kelly has balls. Another one of Barreiro’s reasons for the improbable win was the pick-off of the Tigers’ veteran Darrell Evans at third during the sixth inning of Game 4 (the Tigers would lose 5-3). The sports page’s most tenured columnist, Sid Hartman, wrote a lot of notes(4), including one that had quoted (for some reason, I guess) legendary Michigan football coach Bo Schembechler who defended the Tigers’ Darrell Evans’ play. Gaetti explained how the play went down to Hartman: But what about the celebration back in the Twin Cities? Everyone knows that the Twins returned home from Detroit to a Metrodome that was filled to the brim with rabid fans, eager to cheer on the hometown team. Star Tribune reporters Norman Draper and Kurt Chandler documented the pandamonium. The Twins landed at the airport at 10:05 PM and were police escorted downtown to the stadium. The team’s postseason coordinator Jaime Lowe, said that they anticipated 4,000 to 6,000 people when they started planning the event - and there was even a bit of concern there would be no one to greet them. How wrong they were. Prior to letting the gates open, a crush of fans descended to the gates and the raucous mob waved Homer Hankies and screamed while a Dixieland Band played “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” Officials allowed people in an hour earlier than expected to allow an estimated 55,000 fans stream in. Elsewhere, at Champp’s Sports Cafe(5) in Richfield, where the venue was overflowing with fans watching the clinching game and enjoying what is assumed to be adult beverages. The interviews with patrons reveal some of the enduring Minnesota mindset that has plagued citizens of the states through the ages. Yup. Loserville. What was the scene like inside the bar when the Twins got that final out in Detroit? For the impending World Series, whose National League challenger had yet to be determined, fans lit up the Twins ticket office to get their hands on the state’s most sought after seats since 1965. Employees, however, had to inform the callers that they would need to go to Dayton’s department store in order to procure tickets.(6) This sales process is unfathomable to the younger generation. Think about it. Instead of being able to log into the team’s website from the comfort of your own home (let alone pay over the phone), you had to physically go to a building and wait in line. With other people. Germs and awkward conversation. The horror. That night, the temperature dropped to a crisp 35-degrees as fans camped out in front of one of seven area Dayton’s locations. In play, reports Jon Jeter and Norman Draper, were tickets mainly for upper deck outfield and a few lower level locations. $20 or $30? Twenty-six years later, SeatGeek.com says you can purchased hypothetical Detroit Tigers World Series tickets for a small fee of $300. Times have a-changed. **** (1) The discovery of the box also made me realize that when I am forced out of my home or go tits-up and my kids and grandkids come to clean the clutter, no one will find any newspapers. At best? Tons of crappy DVDs which I haven’t figured out how to get rid of and the sight of which makes me furious for being so frivolous with my money. Who the hell needs to own two copies of American Pie 2? (2) It was somewhat of an odd decision to choose Gaetti considering the numbers Brunansky had put up. Bruno matched The Rat’s home run total (2) but had driven in nine to Gaetti’s five and gone 7-for-17 (.412). Star Tribune staff writer Dennis Brackin would point to Gaetti’s intangibles, including the call for the Darrell Evans pick-off in Game 4 and acting as a sparkplug for initiating the scoring in Game 1 by homering in his first two series at-bats. Still, while he got to drink out of the same trophy, Bruno missed out on the added $25,000 bonus Gaetti received for winning the award. (3) The left-handed Dan Schatzeder, who the Twins had acquired in June for Tom Schwarz and Danny Clay, had been atrocious in Minnesota. In 43.2 innings, he allowed 64 hits and 37 runs. The reason why his four and a third scoreless ball was so remarkable is that in his 30 appearances for the Twins, he only had 13 clean innings. Oh, and left-handed hitters had hit .353/.405/.515 off of him in that time as well making people question why Anderson was afraid to turn to his lefty bench bats. (4) Another one of Hartman’s notes included the Twins desire to bring back impending free agents in reliever Juan Berenguer and designated hitter Don Baylor. Hartman pointed out that Berenguer took a “$200,000” pay cut to sign with the Twins while GM Andy McPhail was quoted as wanting to pursue Baylor but admitted the team wouldn’t be able to match his $850,000 salary in 1988. In the end, the Twins re-signed Berenguer to a three-year, $1.875M contract while Baylor walked, later signing with Oakland for $495,000. Berenger pitched in 164 games during that contract and had a 3.61 ERA. Baylor would hit just .220/.332/.326 with the A’s in 92 games (he would get hit by a pitch 12 times at the plate). (5) Ask John Bonnes about their special dipping sauce and watch his face light up like it is effin’ Christmas morning. (6) Kids, once upon a time Macy’s was once called Dayton’s. Click here to view the article

Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: espnhs_byron_buxton_576x324.jpg The Twins save $200,000 by locking up their number two overall draft pick, Byron Buxton, to a $6 million dollar bonus, slightly under Major League Baseball’s new slot recommendations, reports Baseball America’s Jim Callis. As Callis mentions, Buxton’s signing represents a 25% increase over this year’s first pick of the draft, Houston’s Carlos Correa, who signed with the Astros on June 7 for a reported sum of $4.8 million. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Buxton, 18, is a significant investment over last year’s selection, UNC’s Levi Michael, who the Twins inked for just $1.175 million. Also, unlike last year’s selection, the Twins saved themselves two months of lost development time by signing Buxton in June rather than August as they did for Michael. Michael, who was two years older than Buxton when drafted, has just begun his professional career at High-A Fort Myers and is scuffling against the competition, hitting .214/.308/.286 in 226 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Buxton will likely have the opportunity to experience his first season as a professional in 2012 at one of the two Rookie level teams, potentially starting with GCL Twins and then progressing to Elizabethton. Prior to his signing, Buxton was on-hand at Target Field after his physical and took some batting practice with the team. MLB.com correspondent Jordan Garretson witnessed his round in the cages and tweeted that his performance was “not really blowing anyone away”, noting that he was “spraying line drives around the field.” Now, this is obviously a premature assessment of Buxton’s true talents, particularly given the whirlwind the past few weeks must have been. What’s more is given Buxton’s lack of home run power in high school not having upper deck power at this point should be expected. Nevertheless, FSN did mention he eventually dropped a shot into the bullpen in left-center field which is clearly distance reserved for those wearing big-boy pants. In short, the raw power is not quite there. As ESPN.com’s Keith Law noted, his current power on a 20-80 scale rates at 35 while his potential is closer to 60. So obviously there is room to grow. With potential that has been regularly compared to Arizona’s Justin Upton and the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, Buxton’s developmental path looks like it will be more similar to Kemp’s than Upton’s. The Diamondback’s took a rather aggressive approach with their number one overall pick in 2005. They inserted the 18 year old into the Midwest League (Low-A) a year after his selection and Upton crushed immediately, hitting 12 home runs and posting a .263/.343/.413 batting line. Meanwhile, Kemp, who was a sixth round pick out of high school, was sent to the Gulf Coast League immediately after the draft and hit just one home run with a .270/.298/.346 batting line. It was not until his first full season in the minors that his true power talents began to emerge. Offensively, Buxton feels more like a Kemp who eventually obtained power versus an Upton who hit for power out of the gates. Fortunately for the Twins - who moved quickly to lock up their highest selection since Joe Mauer in 2001 - they will have the opportunity to start his development right away and put him on the path to hopeful reach his comparables. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Joe Mauer.jpg In speaking with the media this afternoon, Twins general manager Terry Ryan announced that the team has decided to shutdown Joe Mauer because of his on-going concussion issue, tweeted FoxSportNorth.com's Tyler Mason. According to reports, both Ryan and Mauer were insistent that Mauer would be back to catch in 2014. Of course, with catching, there is little reassurance that he will avoid triggering more concussions going forward. The Twins have just seven games remaining and Mauer has had on-again, off-again symptoms so there is little reason to push the franchise player. Mauer last played on August 19 and will now miss a total of 39 games due to the brain injury. Click here to view the article

As the battle for the 25-man roster heats up in the Florida sunshine, utility hopeful Luke Hughes is going to be given a long look but no leeway, regardless of his current option situation says Twins general manager Terry Ryan: "Being out of options, that doesn't mean much. You just play the game," Ryan said. "Ultimately if they're one of the best 25, you keep 'em. If they're not, the decision comes from up here, which I don't particularly like, but we go through this every spring. ... I don't worry too much about that until the latter part of March." Hughes, who suffered a sprained shoulder while playing in Australia, has been cautiously re-introduced to playing time this spring, getting time as a DH until the team feels he is ready for throwing. After going 0-for-3 in last night’s game against Boston, he is now 0-for-6 to start spring training play. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Obviously it is hard to gauge a player’s ability based upon spring statistics. A year ago, Hughes was tearing through the Grapefruit League, leading the team with six home runs in 65 at bats. While the power display was impressive, the 17-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio was not. It turns out, his major league play in 2011 wound up playing out more closely associated with the strikeout-to-walk ratio than it was to the home runs. Last season, after having issues with handling pitches on the inner half, Joe Vavra had Hughes make some adjustments in order to better clear his hands. After a mid-season stint in Rochester, Hughes came back in August and showed off more of that power, hitting 4 home runs in 44 plate appearance…but also with a 14-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio that was very similar to his spring rate. Things grew worse in September as he finished the year 12-for-68 (.176) with a 17-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he made contact, the changes helped him drive the ball better in the season’s final two months, even if his batting line didn’t show it. Star Tribune columnist and 1500ESPN host Patrick Reusse made an observation on his Twitter account, on Valentine’s Day no less, that Hughes has a glaring hole at the plate – specifically the outer half. Hughes did not take too kindly to Reusse’s social media scouting report and fired back at him in the only adorablely scary way a seemingly mad Australian can: Download attachment: Reusse_Hughes.JPG While it may have come off as a snide comment, Reusse was right. Hughes has struggled when being pitched away. According to Inside Edge, Hughes hold a .061 well-hit average (well-hit balls/swing) on pitches on the outer half of the plate. Of hitters who have had 250 or more plate appearances, Hughes’s outside well-hit average was the 11th-worst in baseball (new teammate Jamey Carroll’s .036 was the worst in baseball last year). Admittedly, the well-hit average is a subjective statistic. Inside Edge’s video scouts will determine whether or not a player hit a ball “well” (a hard grounder, liner, warning track fly, etc) that they felt was hit on the screws. So, while it is a judgment call, over the course of the season the team of video scouts has concurred with Reusse’s scrutiny. The Reusse/Hughes Twitter tussle reminded me of a pair of other stories involving writers calling major league hitters out on their shortcomings. In his book “Fantasyland”, Sam Walker used his press credentials afforded to him from the Wall Street Journal in hopes of accessing clubhouses to gain some insight that may help his fantasy baseball team win the experts-only T.O.U.T War league. At one point, Walker engaged then-Twins outfielder Jacque Jones in the Metrodome clubhouse. Walker came equipped with some stats to show Jones that he was failing magnificently against left-handed pitching, a fact that was so apparent to everyone else. When presented with this, Jones was unaware of what was basic common knowledge. He disagreed with Walker, even with the spreadsheet stats in his lap that showed the numbers that he was indeed owned by left-handed pitching. Torii Hunter, overhearing the conversation, said, to paraphrase, “Man, you are terrible against lefties.” Two years ago, Jon Sciambi, an ESPN broadcaster, wrote a great piece for Baseball Prospectus that involved the advancement of statistics within the mainstream broadcasts (I highly recommend reading the whole thing if you have not already). In it, Sciambi recanted the story he had with future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones: Perhaps Hughes, like the Joneses before him, was oblivious to the fact that he struggles with the outside pitch. It’s not entirely out of the question that a player does not recognize to what degree he cannot handle a certain pitch in a certain location. After all, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra said that while he uses a plethora of data – including pitch f/x – he does not always share it with the “younger players” as it is an information overload. Then again, maybe Hughes was acutely aware of the problem and just did not want to hear it from a curmudgeonly local media personality through Twitter. You can’t blame him if that was the case. Overall, he’s made some good late season adjustments in 2011, hit well in the Australian Winter League where he worked with former Twin Glenn Williams on refining his swing, and the Twins risk losing him if they do not carry him. Ryan’s comments notwithstanding, Hughes has an inside track to a spot on the roster. Click here to view the article

While many fans will be focusing their attention on the more mainstream topics such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s health, Denard Span’s lingering concussion effects and Francisco Liriano’s resurgence, here are five things you can point out to your buddies as you watch games this month to make you seem like a genuine hipster seamhead: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (1) Nick Blackburn’s adjustments and repertoire. Much has been made this spring about Blackburn’s shift on the rubber from the first base side to the middle. While this may help him hit a few spots with his sinking fastball that he was not afforded from a few inches to the left, what you should really watch for is his new “over-the-top” arm action that he has transitioned towards. In addition to his health, this might be the biggest attribute for a rebound season in 2012. Why would this have anything influence? A more “over-the-top” arm action would translate into a higher release point and, much like I described with Kyle Waldrop, the higher release point combined with good sink gives hitters less of the ball to hit through the hitting zone and should lead to more ground balls and missed bats. Blackburn’s spring numbers has been impressive, for whatever emphasis you want to put on them. In 17 innings, he’s racked up a decent 12/4 K/BB ratio while allowing just four runs. Perhaps more importantly than those numbers was the pitching work behind them. In addition to getting gobs of grounders according to Phil Mackey’s statistics Blackburn held opponents to a 73% contact rate in Grapefruit League play, a rate that is significantly better than his regular season performance (he has a 88.4% contact rate). The question is, has his healthy arm allowed him to throw his slider again - a pitch he hasn’t thrown with regularly or effectiveness since 2009 - thereby incited more swing and misses this spring? Or has the new arm angle resulted in added movement? Is there some other factor in play? Blackburn’s new release point was on display during this spring’s Yankees broadcast. Unfortunately, MLB.tv did not archive the game in order to properly dissect and compare it to his previous motion. On the other hand, Blackburn is scheduled to pitch on April 9th at the home opener so there will be ample opportunity to begin examining the changes in both his arm action through the video as well as the movement results through pitch f/x system. (2) Alexi Casilla’s left-side leg kick. A week ago I wrote that Twins fans may be surprised at what Casilla may be capable of offensively. This was based on the highly volatile offseason league performance that provides little confidence in basing any conclusion off of: He finished the spring with a .300 average in a little under 50 plate appearances and, surprise!, an ailing hamstring that kept him out of play for the final games of the warm-up circuit. Despite the injury, he’s scheduled to be ready by opening weekend. One of the reasons I cling to some hope for Casilla was his emergence last year. After spending most of 2010 and 2011 performing like the slap-hitting second baseman we’ve come to expect, he made some adjustments to his left-handed swing which had the ball jumping off his bat. From May 1 onward, Casilla hit an impressive .281/.344/.408 in just shy of 300 plate appearances. Needless to say, the post-May 1 Casilla would be a great addition to the Twins lineup. The question is will he show up? Watch Casilla from the left-side of the plate. If he is stepping toward the pitcher prior to the pitch being thrown, he’s using a high-contact but low-impact type of swing that does not engage the lower half. If he is striding after the pitch is thrown, as he did post-May 1 last season, that’s a much more able to produce power (doubles power, let’s not get carried away here) from his legs and hips. (3) Scott Baker’s fastball velocity. After being one of the bright spots in the Twins rotation for half the season last year, because of his barking elbow, Baker will start the 2012 season on the disabled list. Spring has not been kind to him. His fastball’s velocity, the best pitch in his repertoire, had abandoned him, residing at 85-88 miles an hour in camp. That’s a range that has been well-below Baker’s standard average velocity in-season. Dating back to 2007, there were just a handful of outings in which the right-hander fell below the 90 mile per hour mark, most, I suspect, were injury related. Download attachment: Baker.jpg Meanwhile, in 2010, we witnessed what happens when he was unable to control his fastball and he was splattered across the diamond. Perhaps because of both location and the velocity, Baker was pummeled in his limited amount of work this spring – allowing seven hits, two for home runs, while striking out just one. This is disheartening for multiple reasons but biggest is that the promise he flashed in 2011 would be a welcomed addition to this rotation. Baker will make a start on Thursday with the Ft Myers Miracle and, if all goes well, he will be set to rejoin the team. If he makes it back to Minnesota this month, be sure to watch both the radar gun readings as well as where the catcher’s target is and where his fastball ends up. (4) Ryan Doumit’s plate discipline. Earlier this week I documented Doumit’s plate discipline improvements last year in Pittsburgh in conjunction with the increase in walks this spring. Obviously, this may be nothing more than a small sample size occurrence however, keep an eye on his at bats in April. Like Doumit, former Twin Jason Kubel had a similar experience last spring and while it did not translate into more walks during the regular season, Kubel came out and had a torrid first month. In his first 102 plate appearances, Kubel hit .351/.392/.511 with nine doubles and two home runs. Clearly, Kubel was dialed in and recognized what was “his pitch.” Even if his spring walks do not manifest into regular season walks, the meaningless free passes may be a sign that Doumit is seeing the ball well and laying off of breaking balls, off-the-plate fastballs and other trickery from the pitchers. The telling point will be if he is driving the ones that he chooses to swing at. (5) Matt Capps’ new pitch Download attachment: split finger.jpg While watching him warm up a week ago Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, a stadium which allows fans to saddle up next to the bullpen and view the pitcher’s getting loose from an amazing vantage point, I noticed Capps was tossing a few split-finger fastballs - an offering that was not among his regular arsenal. He’d let a few go and then confer with the bullpen coach about release or movement or whatever. Monitoring from above the pitcher’s mound, you could see that these pitches were moving fairly well down and in to right-handed hitters, a stark difference in comparison to his fastball and slider. For the most part, Capps has been a pitcher who has labored up in the zone. With mostly a fastball-slider combination and a forearm injury to boot, he struggled to (1) get hitters to miss (his swinging strike rate dropped from above 9% to 6% in 2011) and (2) getting ground balls (his ground ball rate plummeted from 50% to 40%). When he was on the mound, the bats were loud. The hope is that the splitty will provide a bit of speed deception as well as enough movement to entice a few more swing and misses. Unfortunately, new pitches are not always a magic elixir for what ails you. A year ago, Jose Mijares and the coaching staff raved about his new two-seamed fastball that was supposedly going to help him battled right-handed hitters better. That did not pan out so well for the newly minted Kansas City Royal. Most spring on-lookers have agreed that opponents have continued to make noise off of Capps, including nailing four home runs off of him. This may be a byproduct of him “trying new things” out there - including incorporating his splitty – but, if this continues into April, the more ominous question is if his arm is 100%. Watch for more two-strike splitters from Capps this April. The only impediment is if hitters continue to obliterate the ball before he gets to two strikes. Click here to view the article

Last year, as Brian Dozier’s offensive season sank deeper in the abyss, Andrew Bryz-Gornia at TwinkieTown pointed out how many different stances Dozier displayed. While the frequent changes in his batting stance acted as a visual barometer to his overall hitting struggles – the constant alteration a sign that he never was comfortable at the plate – his front side mechanics may have been one of the sources that led to his poor numbers. In 2012, Dozier’s swing contained a front foot landing which often remained closed at the point of contact but then was followed up with a delayed and inconsistent heel spin. What was happening was that Dozier’s upper body was pulling off of the pitch or spinning off the ball. Furthermore, the lack of a foot spin may have been a hint that Dozier’s overall mechanics were not entirely fundamentally correct and that he was not maximizing his hip contributions. The results were a high percentage of pitches pulled. Early on, this played to Dozier’s advantage however, when advanced scouts recognized this, he was pitched away more. Unable to make the in-season adjustment, Dozier’s numbers declined and the changes in his stance increased as frustration mounted while the core problem remained. Now in Fort Myers and reunited with his former minor league hitting coach, Tom Brunansky, Dozier has worked on improving his mechanics. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger captured video of Dozier working in the cage this week with Brunansky providing instructions (nothing of interest, simple baseball jargon like “wait for yours”, “little bingo” and “how now brown cow”). What is shown is Dozier’s swing and the Twins middle infielder has solidified a few things on the front end: Download attachment: Dozier2.jpg Admittedly, this is cage work, in Florida, with a pitcher who is probably throwing 75%. That said, in these swings we see a firm front foot that opens with the swing – not after – and remains in place rather than having it fall off the towards the third base line. This is an indication that the hips and hands are working in unison and giving Dozier a more solid foundation to drive the ball. Likewise, with the added stability, that should give him the ability to better control the zone with his swing and drive a pitch on the outer-half to right field as opposed to turning it over to the left side of the infield. Even though he ultimately homers on this particular swing – a demonstration to his bat speed and strength – you can see that based on his front foot, he was not maximizing his hip rotation in his swing last year. Download attachment: Dozier3.jpg From the front view, notice how Josh Willingham’s strong hip rotation forces the front foot open (this is a trait shared by many power hitters in which the front foot rotates open with the swing): Download attachment: Willingham1.jpg With seven spring games expected to be broadcasted on Fox Sport North, keep an eye on Brian Dozier’s front leg during his swing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: RNolasco.jpg Employment is not difficult to find if you are a moderately successfully and young starting pitcher in major league baseball. As an example, Ricky Nolasco has several four-year offers in discussion and, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal pointed out this morning, the Twins are making a strong push for his services. In a conversation last week his agent, Matt Sosnick, said Nolasco is seeking a five-year deal. While multiple teams are offering four-year deals it may be the team which submits a fifth year option that lands the free agent. “I look at options more about breaking a stalemate at the end of negotiation,” Sosnick said. “We’re talking to a lot of teams and we’re hoping to get five years on Nolasco. We’re talking with a lot of teams about a deal in the four-year range and what ends up happening is that if no one is willing to go to five year, people will use a club option for a fifth year.” The option year, Sosnick said, basically gives the pitcher some extra money in the form of a buyout but also provides the team an option to retain that pitcher’s services if they so desire. Based on reports that the Twins are making a “strong push” for Nolasco, it would be reasonable to assume the two sides are looking at the four-year plus option deal. Nolasco, who will be 31 in 2014, has been decisively average over his career but is coming off perhaps his best season since his age-25 season in 2008. Over his career, Nolasco’s actual numbers have performed worse than his projected numbers. His career ERA of 4.37 is significantly higher than what his 3.75 expected Fielding Independent rates would suggest. While his peripherals have been strong, his ability to strand runners once they reach base has been sub-par: His 69.2% left-on-base rate has been the sixth-lowest among starters since 2010 (minimum 500 innings pitched); part of the reason behind this is that, with runners on, Nolasco has a .288 average against (10th highest). To his credit, Nolasco’s seen a steady decline in his home run rate in each of the last three years, resulting in a career-low of 0.77 HR/9 this last season. One of the biggest changes in 2013 that may have played a role in this decrease was going inside with his fastball more often. Download attachment: Nolasco.PNG In general Nolasco eschews the fastball (just 47% vs 50% league average frequency) for his secondary offerings, mostly his slider. The slider has been a very good pitch for him despite some scouts suggesting it has not been as sharp as it had been earlier in his career. This past season, he was able to induce more swing-and-misses on it but, judging by the drop in chases out of the zone, does not have the same bite it once did. Download attachment: Nolasco_slider.PNG Durability-wise, he is almost as stalwart as they come. Dating back to 2008, Nolasco has accumulated 1,151.1 innings – the 24th most in baseball over that time – placing him alongside other workhorses. In that stretch, he has no arms issues whatsoever, but a tear in his meniscus (knee) took him out for 46 days in 2010. Naturally, the argument could be made that all that was before he turned thirty and the mileage accumulated early in his career could eventually catch up to him on the wrong side of 30. As Twins general manager Terry Ryan said of signing thirty-year-old pitchers last month: “I’d be very careful. I’d be careful”, he said, reflecting on the free agent market, “Because you know what happens with 30-year-olds.” Ryan’s concern is merited, both because of injury and increasing ineffectiveness. Nolasco’s contract would extend him in Minnesota from his age-31 to age-35 season and while he has not shown any signs of arm problems, there are plenty of examples of breakdown from even the biggest workhorses in the stable. The Twins recently requested Johan Santana’s medical records but Santana, who had been a perennial 200-inning hurler, started to suffer a multitude of ailments at age 32 which kept his innings total from his age-32 to age-34 seasons to just 117 innings. Likewise, effectiveness wanes noticeably as starting pitchers begin to approach their mid-life crisis. According to research produced by Fangraph.com’s Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman, a starting pitcher’s skills begin diminishing after the age of thirty and continue to regress from that point forward: Download attachment: Pitcher_Curves_Starters.jpg To be clear, this not meant as an indictment of a potential Nolasco signing, simply a warning of the price of doing business in the free agent market. As Ryan mentioned before, his ideal process of team building would be to avoid the aging talent for the younger arms. “In our position I’d rather go after an Alex Meyer, because we are more than one ace away,” Ryan said recently. “We’ve got a lot of work to do. You give me a No. 1 starting pitcher I’ll take him, but we finished 27 games behind the Tigers.” Obviously Nolasco does not project as an ‘ace’ or a number one starter (well, outside of the Twins rotation anyway) but he does provide the team with a valuable upgrade who can be filled in around moving forward. Alex Meyer, who has impressed during his time in Arizona this fall, could develop into the front-of-the-rotation type. With progress, Kyle Gibson has the potential of being a two or three in the rotation. A rotation of Meyer-Gibson-Nolasco plus others in 2015 does not sound too bad. Like Ryan said, the Twins have work to do and beginning with Nolasco is a decent start. Click here to view the article

So far this season Justin Morneau has seemed as comfortable facing lefties as Mitt Romney would as the opening act for a Phish concert. In spite of performing quite well against right-handed pitchers (hitting .310/.386/.561 and smacking 8 of his 10 home runs), among qualified hitters Morneau’s .100 average off of left-handed pitching (8-for-80 as of Wednesday) is the lowest in baseball. This is not simply a fluky situation; the Twins first baseman is completely lost mechanically at the plate against his left-handed brethren. Prior to the nasty concussion in 2010 Morneau had handled lefties decent enough over his career. Dating back to 2004, he had hit lefties at a .269/.319/.468 clip. However, since the knee to the head in Toronto, he has posted a .124/.167/.200 line against southpaws. Perhaps it is simply rust, an injury or maybe something psychologically about being in the batter’s box and a 90 mile per hour plus fastball that cross in front of your head. Maybe it is a combination of all three. Either way, whatever is responsible for this decline does not seem like an easy fix. Lending credence to the notion that it may be more rust or psychological rather than a physical ailment like his wrist or shoulder is the amount of times he is fool by sliders from left-handers now versus two years ago. According to pitch f/x data, in 2010, left-handed opponents threw him sliders 21% of the time. Morneau elected to swing at 53% of those thrown his way while whiffing at 14%. This year, opposing team’s have had their lefties increase the number of sliders (31%) in response to Morneau’s inability to layoff of the breaking pitch as he has swung at 70% of all left-handed sliders thrown his way while whiffing at 26% of them. This statistical breakdown leads one to believe that Morneau is struggling with pitch recognition out of the pitcher’s hand. To make matters worse, his mechanics – particularly against left-handed pitching – has become so abysmal that he’s unable to keep himself locked in on pitches when teams attack him on the outer-half of the plate. His batted ball distribution chart paints a disconcerting portrait of how far his skills against left-handers have eroded. Back in 2010 Morneau was much better at using the entire field. As same-sided hurlers would throw sliders and fastballs on the outer half of the strike zone, he would be able to deposit them all over the field. Now, as we have seen more recently this year, Morneau is having difficulty doing anything against lefties besides yanking the ball: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_batted_balls_v_lefties.jpg This is particularly ineffective when the majority of pitches to him are being thrown away. As noted above, Morneau is mechanically out of whack as well when it comes to swinging against lefties. Focus on his front side (hip) and compare his swing from 2010 (top) versus one from this past June against the Phillies’ Antonio Bastardo (bottom): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2010_leg_kick.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_June.gif You will notice that in his 2010 stance and mechanics, Morneau kept his feet closer together and made a long stride at the ball. Once he began his swing, he demonstrated the ability to keep his hip on the ball and open up along with his swing as his hands come to the ball. These traits were consistent throughout many of his clips that season. In the more recent version however, he had widen his stance thereby shortening his stride (perhaps in efforts to reduce the movement and improve contact). When he swings, his front side basically splays wide open well before his hands come through the hitting zone. Because his front side has already committed to opening up, Morneau has no choice but to pull the ball – even if it is located on the outer-half of the plate. This too, unfortunately, is a trait that also carries with him throughout many of his swing clips from this year and is not unique just to this match-up. With his issues at the plate continuing to progress, it became apparent that in the past week or so Morneau and hitting coach Joe Vavra have made some changes to his approach to combat this slide. The most notable of which is removing his leg kick altogether. Instead of the prominent leg lift and stride as seen in the clips above, Morneau is now simply lifting the heel of his front foot while keeping his toes firmly in the dirt: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July.gif http://apps.startrib..._2012_July2.gif Additionally, there seems to be more concentration on keeping his weight back and going the other way with the pitch (at least you can see this in the clip against Bruce Chen and the Royals or today with Darin Downs on the mound for the Tigers). The rationale behind this alteration seems to be focused on making contact by keeping him from drifting out with his front side. By not having a stride, Morneau’s hips will have less of a tendency to open up. Likewise, by minimizing the movement it allows him to keep his head still and in theory see the ball better. Of course, at the same time, this significantly reduces his power potential and it may be the reason why during Thursday’s game, Morneau went back to his original stride (with little success): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July3.gif In addition to the season long woes against lefties, Morneau’s power has been MIA since June 4 when he hit his last home run. The ball just is not coming off of his bat the way it had previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, before June 4 Morneau’s fly balls and line drives were travelling an average of 298.27 feet. Since then, that average has dropped to 259.89 and has resulted in five extra base hits in 101 plate appearances since his last home run. Given that he has made some changes, this indicates that he is not wholly comfortable at the plate. While he and Vavra are attempting to get back on course, it raises the larger question on whether he should continue to be used regularly against left-handed pitchers. With Morneau inserted in the fifth spot against southpaws and having him continue to produce at the abysmal rate that he has greatly diminishes the effectiveness of the lineup. The Twins have three games remaining before the All Star Break and in two of those they will be facing southpaws. This should be a good time to sit the first baseman out for a few games, giving him some added rest and time to concoct a game plan against lefties. Click here to view the article

When the Minnesota Twins signed Kurt Suzuki this past offseason the focus was on his defensive capabilities and his offensive abilities were basically an afterthought. “We wanted to add some leadership to help the pitching staff,” Twins assistant general manager Rob Antonysaid in March. “We went out and got some starting pitching, but we also wanted somebody to help them on defense. With Joe [Mauer] moving to first, we were willing to sacrifice some offense for defense.” So far this year, the leadership with the staff has not manifested into success in the rotation but, more surprising, is the fact that Suzuki has outhit the catcher emeritus. Coming into the season Suzuki had a .253/.309/.375 (average/on-base/slugging) career line. While the 74 plate appearances this season are nothing to base any accurate assessment on, it should be noted that he is hitting an unexpectedly robust .305/.397/.407 and his performance has been largely overshadowed by the production of players like Chris Colabello, Trevor Plouffe, Jason Kubel and Josmil Pinto. But with nearly a month in the books, this is starting to deserve attention. Under most circumstances this sort of spike would scream small sample size success ripe for regression -- after all, Suzuki’s career rates do not point to sustainability at this level. While there is likely regression in the future, Suzuki has made some adjustments at the plate that may stave off the decline. Below are two clips of Suzuki’s mechanics from 2013 with the Washington Nationals and this year with the Twins: http://i.imgur.com/4jUFOUc.gif http://i.imgur.com/avvL4Bu.gif The thing that should jump out is the stride and front-foot landing. With the Nationals Suzuki’s front foot would land almost straight at the pitcher. This year’s version has Suzuki landing with a closed front-side, having his front side aiming towards the second baseman and his foot strike closer to the plate. Suzuki changed to this style at some point following his late season trade from Washington to Oakland. Since the trade, he has been hitting .304/.380/.457 with a 9-to-12 strikeout-to-walk rate in 109 plate appearances. For Suzuki, an already above-average contact machine with good strike zone comprehension, this approach has greatly improved his coverage. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, from the beginning of 2012 until his trade to Oakland, Suzuki hit just .220/.270/.270 with a 17% swing-and-miss rate when being pitched away. Since then, he has posted a solid .308/.373/.423 with a 10% swing-and-miss rate on those same type of pitches. He also jumped from an 18% line drive rate to 27% line drive rate suggesting that the contact was superior as well. In addition to the success when being pitched away, Suzuki is seeing strong production on pitches up in the zone, another area he has struggled with in the past. Again, from 2012 until his trade to the Athletics, he hit .153/.279/.193 with a 16% swing-and-miss rate. Post-A’s trade, Suzuki has been hitting .414/.500/.483 with a 4% swing-and-miss rate on pitches up in the zone. These are both positive signs that Suzuki’s adjustment has been the source of his unexpected offensive numbers and not just a small sample size fluke. That being said, it is a small sample size and that fact cannot be ignored. Whatever the Twins can get out of Suzuki offensively that goes above and beyond the previous expectations is gravy. Now about that leadership for the starting rotation... Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Switch My Trip [/hr]Download attachment: USATSI_7948541.jpg Josh Willingham’s career may not be as finished as previously thought. Sure, not everyone thought he was washed up. Over the winter his agent -- Matt Sosnick of Sosnick Cobbe Sports -- reassured me that Willingham was strong like bull after his knee surgery in 2013. The procedure cleaned everything up and he was healthy. The message? Get ready because 2014 would be a rebirth of Willingham -- avert your eyes because you cannot handle the raw power! But that’s agent talk, right? An agent is supposed to be the best wingman alive, pumping a player’s tires even if the engine won’t start. Then, like those cartoon dynamite sticks with a 100 yards of fuse that fails to ignite while an animated coyote waits with his ears plugged behind a rock, the Twins waited for the big boom from Willingham that never came this spring. Yes, spring training statistics are wholly meaningless but scouts look for signs of life and Willingham’s performance had a very weak pulse. He accumulated just three hits in 50 spring plate appearances and one of those happened to be a wall-scraping home run at Boston’s JetBlue Park in the final practice game of the year. Based on that, the assumption was that Willingham was continuing where he left off in 2013. Last season, bogged down with a knee injury, he finished with his worst season at the major league level. While playing in 111 games, he turned in a .208/.342/.369 line with 128 strikeouts. With his highest whiff rate and lowest power output, there were rumblings that the 34-year-old was simply stranded. [/hr]The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. [/hr]Willingham made it just six games into the 2014 season before Cleveland’s Justin Masterson sent him to the infirmary again with a fastball that ran in on Willingham’s wrist. After a rehab stint in Rochester that seemed as disappointing as his spring production, Willingham looked to be poised to flounder again. Only he has not. Since returning to the team on May 26 he has flipped a switch and posted a .316/.467/.632 batting line with five home runs and a 14/14 K/BB ratio in 75 plate appearances. Only Lonnie Chisenhall, Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnacion in the American League have put up better slugging percentages in that time while his extra nerdy .464 weighted on-base average is only bested by Chisenhall and Gordon. While some may want to consider this as his dead-cat bounce, there are some positive signs in this small sample size that may indicate that this is truly a health rebound and not a fluke, the most notable sign being how improved his plate coverage is in comparison to last year. Part of Willingham’s game is being able to extend those meaty arms in order to pull pitches to left field. Without a stable base to support those Popeye forearms, there would be little ability to drive the balls that are thrown on the opposite side of the plate. This was evident last year. If you divided the plate into thirds, according to ESPN/tTruMedia, last year Willingham slugged .538 (7 HR) on the inside, .438 (7 HR) in the middle and .224 (0 HR) on the outer portion. That is in stark contrast to his output in his impressive 2012 season where he slugged .526 (8 HR) inside, .642 (16 HR) middle and .422 (11 HR) outside. Visually, you can see how different his season with a knee-injury (2013) is versus a healthy season (2012) and how that injury affected his ability to drive the ball on the outer half for power. It is amazing how abrupt his power ended at the middle portion of the strike zone: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/irdDu0jmJLvWzWVFGW-c-PcvqycUp-ZR5mGIxTJ0-L0jtbxnnPfnVip2Gct42VOx6MOoWRX6eNBePkWFi1Pn3XcHTG6U98Ye5SgoAhHjAvVUCZ2wzsAEcraPfO6psErqGQ Fast forward to this season and Willingham’s tendencies are mirroring his 2012 season in which he has been able to drive the ball on the outer-half with authority. Statistically in 2014, he is slugging .649 because he has tagged three of his five home runs from the outside portion of the zone. Here is how that looks visually with his slugging percentage this year: https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/9mmzKXBOnS8hVL3iKLckOiO-LG7wva48wCKxgVOqJSF4Eg1v6t6Lx4gprrrnL2FyjM59wRqsDIRcTcv8pzKuW0uvgvUIXa4sbjhqtFctlMcUVtr_KNlvM3rl3339HQqcdA Willingham is not only able to connect with those pitches that are thrown away but he’s able to drive them a long way from home. This is important because this is the region that opponents have attacked him most frequently rather than risk throwing inside: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/kNsvZWkxKgYBRW16indr8MKF5aHROoT1D0YoveXHw5Np0ivUF91ziJF0FQYSy1tS6ueLUvsnBxMCCrMBcEaayKN6IkK3ekh8etAbR8dQSY_4cuNquI5iS9lshUGT2EO50Q Beyond just the heat maps that may confuse the color-blind, here are two visual examples with a fastball on the outer-half where one turned into a left-center field home run and the other a foul out to first base: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_YJ27DoFU7D9_Jm5Io3MJVWwoJOzrdOJByBYux9pdJrRpV0LKbIoLKETLS82F6jqQAb-Fe2c2JzkW3ECjqPxVFE7PzJrvTckee2X9BV-QGysRbO4XubhLb8eAYkkpfD6kQ This may be the smallest of small sample sizes when drawing a two-swing comparison but overall this shows the discrepancy accurately: this year he is able to drive the outside pitch whereas in 2013 he was not. At his age and his health history, it is difficult to say how long this production will last. Still, at the very least, Willingham is now doing the things that he was doing in his successful 2012 that he was not in 2013. Depending on how you look at it, this is an inflation for his trade deadline value or an offensive weapon to help the Twins combat the rest of the AL Central. [/hr]Why fight traffic and parking? Say ‘Switch My Trip’for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article