Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Maer.jpg Catcher framing is extremely popular in baseball research circles right now. Go over to Fangraphs.com or BaseballProspectus.com and you will find several studies and articles on the subject. It’s Hansel hot right now. While we can determine which catchers are better at getting more out-of-zone pitches called strikes than others, we still do not have a full grasp on what it means to a team’s bottom line.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In some ways, it feels like a butterfly effect. If a catcher is unable to get a borderline pitch for a punchout strike, it could mean an addition pitch for the pitcher which could mean a base hit which means another at bat which means an additional four or five pitches which runs up the pitch count and could mean going to the bullpen in the fifth rather than the sixth or seventh. One of the more recent studies on Baseball Prospectus found that Joe Mauer’s ability to coax the low strike. As Ben Lindbergh’s data shows, Mauer’s 19.5% strike rate low in the zone is well-below the average for catchers –in fact, 41.3% below average. By comparison, Milwaukee’s Jonathon Lucroy has excelled at getting this pitched called. His strike rate in the low portion is 77.1% (or 66.1% above average). (On the other hand, because of his tall statute, Mauer has been much better at getting high strikes versus the smaller framed Lucroy. Much, MUCH better. According to Lindbergh’s figures, Mauer is 86.3% better than the average at coercing the high strike.) Lindbergh provides a .gif that visually shows the difference between the two catchers’ called strike zones, not the bottom dark dots on Mauer’s chart that represent called balls: Download attachment: LucroyMauer (2).gif As a real-life example, in Tuesday night’s game against the Angels, with Anthony Swarzak cruising through his first inning of work, retiring Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta on seven pitches. He was in the middle of doing the same to Angels’ third baseman, Luis Jimenez, up 0-2 and twirled off this exquisite curveball: Here’s a thought: How does Mauer’s inability to get low strikes effect what is predominately a sinker ball rotation? In years past, Mauer’s height and tendency to get high strikes called would have played well for pitchers like Scott Baker who work mainly up in the zone with their fastballs. But with Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey toeing the rubber, their arsenal is more reliant on getting borderline pitches called strikes in order to get strike three. So far, both pitchers are well-below their career strikeout norms. Obviously, plenty the blame needs to be assigned to the pitcher, but how much influence does Mauer’s handling have? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span1.jpg Heading into the 2012 season, the Twins had plenty of question marks throughout the lineup. Among those unanswered questions was center fielder Denard Span. The concern was Span, like Justin Morneau to a lesser extent, would be unable to play consistently throughout the season at a high level. After all, Span’s concussion in the middle of the 2011 season sidelined him for an extended period of time and, when he returned for 14 games in August and September, he provided minimal production, going 7-for-53 (.132) with 10 strikeouts to three walks. Nevertheless, the Twins’ leadoff hitter has had a fast start to the season, setting the tables like never before. In addition to an impressive batting average (.333) and a decent amount of extra base hits (7), he’s reaching base at a very good .373 clip which gives the heart of the order someone to attempt to drive home. What makes Span such a valuable asset at the top of the Twins’ order is his outstanding plate discipline. For starters, he rarely expands the strike zone, instead shows off an amazing amount of restraint. According to Fangraphs.com’s Plate Discipline statistics, Span has chased after just 19.6% of all out-of-zone pitches which is well below the 28.9% league average. By not offering at out-of-zone pitches, Span is confident that he is putting mostly in-zone pitches into play. These types of choice pitches are often within a hitter’s swing zone and result in more square contact. Because of this, it is not surprising to see that Span has maintained his second highest line drive output (23%) since his first season with the Twins. What’s more is that his 10% fly ball rate is the lowest in baseball at this juncture and he has yet to hit an infield fly ball. These are all signs of a hitter who is seeing the ball extremely well and putting the ball into play extremely well. Part of what is driving his success this year is his ability to go the other way rather than pulling the ball. There’s no question that he is a rare offensive specimen is his quick wrists and patience. He can wait until the pitch is almost in the catcher’s mitt only to flick his wrists and send a screaming line drive somewhere on the left side of the field. However, when Span becomes too pull happy, he winds up turning over those quick wrists and grounding out (he has a 73% ground ball rate when pulling the ball) a trait we saw far too often in his 2010 campaign. However, there are signs that Span, now a veteran with four major league seasons under his belt, is adapting and making changes to his approach for the better. NOTE: For whatever reason, TwinsDaily.com does not seem to have .gif capabilities. Please visit the post at the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric page to see the video clips. Compare his 2011 approach to the two clips below from 2012. In 2011, although he is going to opposite field with the pitch, he is doing so more with his upper body rather than with his legs and hips: Download attachment: DSpan_2011_1.jpg Meanwhile, in 2012, watch his back leg as he draws it back towards the first base side, directing his hips towards the left side of the field: Download attachment: DSpan_2012_1.jpg Download attachment: DSpan_2012_2.jpg Pitchers have stared the 2012 season by peppering the outer half of the zone to Span. To his credit, he has succeeded by giving what they pitch him and driving the ball towards left. This is why 39% of the balls he puts into play wind up headed towards the opposite field, well above his career rate of 28%. Soon enough, however, teams will likely adjust their approach to Span and attempt to bust him inside more often in attempts to keep him from focusing on going away with every pitch. The Royals, while their pitching staff is struggling worse than the Twins, have moved towards using video scouting more often than in-person scouting. If the Royals advanced video scouts have picked up on this, they may implement a game plan this weekend that will result in Span being pitched inside more frequently. Watch for Span to continue to go away with pitches out over the plate but keep in mind Kansas City will likely attempt to shut him down by busting him inside. Click here to view the article

Just two seasons into Target Field’s existence and already the ballpark’s environment had drawn as much consternation from hitters as an expanded strike zone or moving the mound ten feet closer to the plate. Departing Twins took shots at the venue as they left the team, suggesting that the way the field plays makes players alter their swings to avoid long fly outs to the gaps. Rather than continuing to jam square pegs into a round hole, the Twins made an offseason signing that is proving early on that if you select the right talent, Target Field can be porous. With a sampling of two seasons, the home run chart at Target Field showed that the easiest way to leave the field of play was to yank one down the left field line - and that’s where Josh Willingham comes in. Because of his high pull tendencies and Target Field’s favorable environment to right-handed pull hitters, this winter’s acquisition had all the signs that it could be successful. Just three games into the first homestand of the year, Willingham has reminded fans why the team named the third deck section of left field the “Home Run Porch” by pulverizing the Rawlings deep into the stands and narrowly missing a fourth by several feet on Monday. In concert with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, both of whom homered on Thursday, the Twins now have five home runs at home. That is downright a derby contest compared to last season in which fans had to wait until the twelfth home game of the season to be treated to the fifth Twins home run. Let’s take a closer look as to why Willingham has been such a solid power source. As I wrote back in December, what makes him such a dangerous hitter is that he “draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90 degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination, plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.” Here is an example of this in his home run off of Jared Weaver on Wednesday night. What I failed to mention back then is the explosive hip action he has when he uncorks. Take note of the stiff front leg and the way his trailing arm stays tucked in. Notice, also, that the point of impact is well out in front of his body resulting in him pulling the ball: Download attachment: Willingham_outfront2.jpg Next is an almost identical position for his home run off of Kevin Jepsen. Observe the same front leg, arm tucked in and the impact made out in front of his body: Download attachment: Willingham_outfront.jpg Because of this approach, Willingham has had great success when being pitched middle-in: Download attachment: Willingham_hit zone.jpg Due to his early season success, one has to believe that the Rangers advanced scouts are filing reports that say “PITCH HIM AWAY! AWAY! AWAY!” in big bold letters and underlined. After all, Texas can neutralize him in this weekend’s series by forcing him to use the large part of the park rather than directing the ball towards the porch in left. It is impossible to think that his pace will continue throughout the season, but pitchers do make mistakes – like Jepsen did when he tried to hit the outer-half the zone on Thursday only to have it stay over the middle – and Willingham appears to be a hitter who takes advantage of such mistakes. While this season still needs to play out, as of right now, it appears that the Twins front office has made one home run of a signing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hammer.jpg Who knows why Josh Willingham left first base with the intention of stealing second base on April 27th, 2013. Coaches claim the thievery was not planned. It’s possible that with the left-handed Michael Kirkman on the mound, Willingham was fooled by his delivery or was caught leaning when the Ranger threw over to first. Either way, with his team up 4-0 -- thanks in part to his two-run home run two innings prior -- Willingham broke for second, took the base but aggravated his knee in the process. All for what? The knee, which he had injured in 2010 while with the Nationals, gave Willingham troubles the rest of last year. For the remainder of the season, the man who had punished pitching and made people think the concrete had finally settled at Target Field in 2012 hit a Punto-nian .200/.332/.336 over nearly 400 plate appearances. With the left knee out of commission -- the right-handed slugger’s front knee which absorbs the impact in his stride and weight transfer and twists violently when he is opening up his hips to turn on the ball -- Willingham’s power drained significantly. He hit just 14 home runs compared to the 35 he had in 2012. His standard fly ball distance dropped from 279 feet to 265 feet on average. Whether or not directly related to the knee injury, what gave Willingham the most trouble was doing anything with pitches on the outer-half of the strike zone. In 2012 he hit .217/.337/.422 with 22 extra base hits including 11 home runs on pitches on the outer-third of the plate. This past year he managed to produce just a .170/.296/.224 batting line that included nine extra base hits (all doubles). The heat maps and spray charts from ESPN’s Stats & Info Department show how much better Willingham was at hitting those pitches for power and driving the ball for distance. In 2012 his average fly ball distance on those pitches was 296 feet. Last year the average distance dropped to 255 feet. 2012 http://twinsdaily.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=6426&stc=1 2013 http://twinsdaily.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=6427&stc=1 Based on the heat map of his slugging percentage (left) it is clear Willingham thrived when being able to extend his hands on pitches up and out over the plate to drive the ball. In 2013, he was unable to get the desired results on the same pitches as he did in 2012. Interestingly enough, his contact rates in that location in these two seasons are very comparable but the production simply dropped off. It is indeed likely the knee was the catalyst for the plate coverage power drop-off, when we see that in both 2011 and 2009 he hit six home runs on the outer-half of the plate but in 2010, when he injured his knee and required surgery on his meniscus, he had just one home run and very little power (.277 slugging). The takeaway is that once healthy in 2011, Willingham’s power rebounded nicely (29 home runs, .477 slugging percentage overall). If healthy in 2014, the Twins should expect the home run power to return. All graphs and data provided by ESPN Stats & Info. Click here to view the article

For the 9-to-5ers in Twins Territory, those who did not attend the game should consider themselves lucky they stayed in the office rather than witness Nick Blackburn’s last start on Wednesday afternoon. For the second consecutive start, Blackburn was punished across the field, allowing another pair of home runs to Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The one-time groundball-getter has failed to induce the batted ball types that earned him that label. In those two starts, he managed to get 12 grounders to 26 fly balls – hardly the worm-burning ratio. At a point when the Twins are in desperate need of a starter to just throw consistent innings Blackburn, the guy they paid millions to supply just that, has been unable to fulfill their needs. Is there any hope of Blackburn turning things around or is he simply a casualty waiting to happen? In March 2010, the Twins made the decision to sign Blackburn to a four-year deal -- in spite of coming off a season in which he led the league in hits allowed (240) -- effectively buying out his arbitration years and a year of free agency for $14 million. Not long after that Rob Antony, the team’s assistant general manager, explained the logic behind locking in Blackburn saying that the organization believed he was capable of providing the team with more than his nearly 400 innings (399.0 to be exact), 22-22 record and 4.04 ERA which he had already put up in 2008 and 2009. “You start putting down the numbers and all the comps that he has and you base it off of if he just does what he has done,” Antony said. “You don’t project that he is getting better – although we believe there is more in there. Instead of being an 11-11 guy, we believe he could easily be a 15-9 guy.” Had he simply sustained his previous production, Blackburn would have been a huge bargain for the Twins. In his first two seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric said that he was worth $24.8 million mostly based on working 200 innings. Of course, he would not be able to maintain that level of output. Injuries and general ineffectiveness has made it look like he hornswoggled the team out of millions. Over the past three seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric has said he has been only worth $2.4 million while the Twins have paid him $8.25 million in actual money. Blackburn has always been a pitcher who seems to work in a delicately balanced universe. As a high contact groundballer with the propensity to give up long home runs, he requires sterling defense behind him and laser-sharp command to guide him through his starts. If one of those items falls out of equilibrium, the levee breaks. To his credit, Blackburn seems very cognizant of his abilities and his reliance on his mechanics to help the movement in his sinker. This spring, Blackburn headed into camp talking about changes he had made to him mechanics and approach. The first was shifting to the middle of the pitching rubber away from the first base side he had lived at for most of his career. This, he said, would give added deception. The second change was getting to a more “over-the-top” release point to alleviate stress on his arm. In considering his season thus far, clearly neither addition has been the answer. While pitchers are always adapting, Blackburn’s latest mechanics seem further and further away from his successful 2009 season which landed him his large payday. Take a look at his 2009 version compared to his current one: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1340946905_Blackburn_OAK09.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_CIN12.gif If you are looking for it, you will notice several differences but the most critical difference is in his leg stride. Notice in his 2009 model that he gets his front leg up higher and instead of bringing it back down immediately, he stretches it further out towards home. There is a brief hesitation as he gets to the peak of his leg lift before bringing his leg forward. As that is happening, his weight stays back extremely well. Meanwhile, his current mechanics involve bringing the front leg down and then drifting it forward rather than stretching it as he did in 2009. Compare the two motions at the point in which he is beginning to move his front leg forward. Here you can see how much more he elevations his front leg in 2009 and how the 2012 version is taking more of a swinging path towards home. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2009-OAK.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2012-CIN.jpg Pitch F/X data details a significantly different story in the path of his sinker (classified as a two-seamer) from 2009 and 2012. In 2009, while lining up on the first base side of the rubber, Blackburn’s sinker most often was thrown on the black of the plate (in on righties, away from lefties). This, more or less, is an ideal spot for that pitch. Notice in the overhead below that the pitch has some pitcher’s glove side run to it as well. This season, with the relocation to the middle of the slab, the sinker is thrown smack dab in the center of the plate and, unlike the 2009 version, does not have much run if any. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Overhead.jpg From the strike zone view, you will see how the 2009 sinker ran in on the hands of right-handed hitters and away from the left-handed hitters’ swings. This season a solid majority of his offerings have been within the zone, giving hitters something they can square up on: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Zone.jpg In short, in 2009 he stayed back well and was able to get outstanding movement and location. In 2012, he is rushing a bit towards home which creates a timing issue and has less movement on the sinker. As has been discussed at length at Twins Daily’s forum, Blackburn is currently a sunk cost to the Twins. He now has thrown several stinkers in a row without any signs of improving. The general attitude among the community appears to be to cut him loose and give those innings to another pitcher. Unfortunately, the team is on the hook again for $5.5 million next year and, with the current state of the rotation, the Twins could certainly use the 2009 version of Blackburn again. There are probably some very good reasons behind Blackburn’s mechanical changes since 2009. However, given his struggles, I would submit that it cannot hurt to attempt to return to the motion he was using back when the front office invested $14 million in him and his power sinker. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Florimon.jpg When the Twins front office begins to renovate this mess of a house in the winter, at the top of the list the highest priority has to be fixing the starting rotation. It is the home’s crumbling foundation and that needs the most attention. Afterwards, item number two could be repairing the all-important middle infield position. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Offensively, over the past two seasons the Twins shortstops have hit a combined .241/.303/.326. It was this kind of hitting that had forced the 2009 team into acquiring Orlando Cabrera and the 2010 team to land JJ Hardy. In terms of OPS, just three other American League teams have extracted less production out of the position since the end of the 2010 season: the Mariners, Rays and Athletics. The difference is, while those teams’ shortstops struggled at the dish, they were all good with the glove providing them with some value. What’s more is that two of those three teams either changed direction or will likely change in the near future. In the past two seasons, outside of a geriatric doctor in Sarasota performing physicals, nobody in this country picked up more balls than Seattle’s Brendan Ryan, so it is easy to exchange offense for his defense. Meanwhile, Elliot Johnson in Tampa has been solid, doing more on defense in 2010 over 2011, but he will likely give way to one of the two defensive stalwarts in Tim Beckham or Hak-Ju Lee in the coming future. Over in Oakland, Chad Pennington has been average in the field however his lack of offense encouraged the A’s to grab the equally struggling Stephen Drew, who has yet to rebound after leaving the hitting-haven of Arizona’s Chase Field. In theory, the Twins thought they were getting a strong defensive player in Tsuyoshi Nishioka but realized that the bar for a Gold Glove in Japan was apparently set ridiculously low. For their part, recognizing the lack of depth at the upper levels, the Twins have nabbed a few additional shortstops including Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar to go with the in-house Brian Dozier. Florimon, who has been up with the team for all of 19 games, comes equipped with plenty of range but an error-prone resume. We’ve seen some slick fielding plays thanks to his speed. Consider with a grain of salt based on the sample size yet according to Baseball Info Solution’s data in 158.1 innings he has made 11 out-of-zone plays at short. Compare that to Jamey Carroll - who had 150 more innings than him at short – and made just 18 out-of-zone plays. However, he’s been unable to make the plays within the standard zone. He’s had 42 balls hit into his zone and made just 27 plays (.643 revised zone rating). While Carroll could not touch Florimon’s speed, Carroll compensated by making the vast majority of plays that were hit near him (85 of 105 for a .810 revised zone rating). And although he has turned a corner and has made just 16 errors so far this year, the fewest E’s the 25-year-old shortstop has commitment was 21 in the low-A Sally League. If he does not find a way to harness all of his physical talent and smooth out his glove work, his minor league track record suggests he will not contribute much offensively judging by his .249/.321/.354 batting line in just under 3,000 plate appearances. Escobar has proven to be a much more sure-handed individual over his development but does not necessarily project as a starting shortstop – more likely a second baseman or utility infielder. Even though the White Sox used him at third base, there is nothing in his minor league batting line of .267/.312/.348 that would be indicative of someone capable of hitting like a third baseman. Before they decided against recalling him in September, the accept belief was that Brian Dozier would be the frontrunner for the position in 2013 among all the internal options. For most of the year Dozier played decisively average defense. Compared to the rest of the league’s starting shortstops according to BIS, he made a less than average amount of plays in a shortstop’s zone. Some of that was blamed on lack of awareness of his competition. Upon his demotion, Ron Gardenhire questioned some of his positioning that allowed speedier guys like Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis and Kansas City’s Jarrod Dyson to reach on grounders. Improving his defense would require preparation and ability to position in the field to handle those types of situations. Then again, there are plenty of baseball minds who have believed Dozier to be more of a second baseman than a shortstop. And, offensively, he degraded into a Danny Valencia-like mess at the plate, chasing sliders out of the zone and putting a very high amount of those kinds of pitches in play (74% out of zone contact). To be sure, the gaggle of shortstops has improved the defense a smidge over the 2011 group. Last year the team had a .268 batting average on ground balls in play, well above the league average of .240. This year, that number has dropped to .258. Still on the high-side but an increase of grounders converted to outs, nonetheless. Based on what we know today, it would seem that none of these three players are close to becoming fixtures in the middle infield. They certainly all have skills and plenty of upside, although it is hard to envision a team interested in competing for a division title next year to roll forward with any of these three at the vital position. The point is, when the Twins brass sits down when the season ends on October 3, they should think critically about their plans for shortstop next year. Any one of these players may be able to get a team through a season and it is possible that one of these existing candidates figures things out either defensively or offensively. On the other hand, based on their prior experience, it is more likely that they do not and will leave the organization, once again, hunting for an answer at shortstop. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Josmil.jpg With Joe Mauer’s season cut short due to brain trauma, now more than ever there is discussion of moving the franchise player out from behind the plate to a “safer” position in the infield. TwinsDaily.com’s Nick Nelsonshared his thoughts and explained in detail why the move makes sense for 2014. The crux of Nelson’s argument is to protect the team’s best offensive player from missing extended time from additional concussions that have been plaguing backstops this year. What makes this transition easier to accept has been the emergence of catcher Josmil Pinto, whose September performance has been tantalizing to say the least. One aspect of his game that has been impressive is his ability to use the entire field -- particularly driving the ball the other way in big situations. On Monday night, he shot a game-winning, walk-off single into right field. On Thursday, he drove a Chris Perez offering into the seats in the overhang in right to bring the Twins within one run of the Indians. Following the extra inning win against Detroit, manager Ron Gardenhire raved about Pinto’s short swing which allows him to wait back on off-speed pitches as well as keep us with the league’s harder throwers. “He got himself in a little bit of a hole, but he took a nice, short swing, didn't try to do too much with it and shot it the other way,” Gardenhire told reporters this week. “That's kind of ahead of your time. You don't see many young hitters being able to do those things. He's been able to do that stuff. It's been fun to watch.” Pinto is not quite at the Joe Mauer level when it comes to exploiting the opposite field but his tendencies to go that direction demonstrate a hitter with great plate coverage and comprehension of what he should do with a pitch. In some cases, young hitters tend to become too pull heavy and are often overmatched when pitchers begin to pitch away. In discussing Chris Colabello’s opposite field leaning, Twins general manager noted that many hitting instructors value a young player’s ability to go the other way since it is a skill that is difficult to master once a hitter is set in their ways. A source for Pinto’s pop has been the strong lower-half drive created by his pronounced leg kick. This action has been often cited as a reason why some hitters will struggle. The idea is that they have a tendency to move their weight forward early and can be fooled by offspeed stuff. So far, Pinto has not shown this weakness. Speaking to his evolution as a hitter, Pinto had showcased a more significant kick during his 2012 season with the New Britain Rock Cats. Here we see that he brought the apex of his kick almost to his waist. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1380305322_Pinto_Minors.gif Since then, Pinto has muted that movement somewhat and is not raising his front leg as high. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1380305231_Pinto_MLB.gif This may have been a change instilled by a coach, instructor or possibly Pinto himself as he ascended the minor league chain and competition grew stronger and better equipped to dismantle a hitter. Either way, so far into his career, it has been working well for him. The question is, will it be something opponents can exploit? Locally, we know Kirby Puckett was very successful with his trademark high leg kick. Puckett, however, seemed more the exception than the rule. Other players have had varying degrees of success with an over-exaggerated stride. As RJ Anderson pointed out at BaseballProspectus.com (subscription required) in July, the Athletics’ Josh Donaldson, who is garnering MVP consideration, struggled with the leg kick because it created a timing issue for him. Only once he was able to set his trigger properly was he able to produce at his current high level. In regard to the methods' overall acceptance, Anderson also recounts hitting instructor Bobby Tewkbury’s thoughts on why a high leg kick is not as much of a hinderance if implemented properly: “While some people might think the bigger leg kick is too much movement, when you use it properly it actually offers a great deal of control. You obviously shouldn’t just be lunging forward, but the leg kick into the creep forward allows the hitter to be balanced on the back leg during pitch recognition. This is where I see hitters establishing good adjustability to the pitch they are facing.” Pinto does not display the traits of someone lunging forward. Even with the high leg kick, he keeps his weight back extremely well and uses the short swing to get the bat to the ball quickly in the hitting zone. Because of his early success against off-speed pitches, one has to assume he is recognizing pitches very well. There will still be questions regarding Pinto’s full season abilities because his initial major league success comes in a small sample size; however, he has a strong foundation that should provide above-average production from the catcher’s spot in the future. Rest up Joe. Josmil’s got you covered. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pinto.jpg There is a baseball adage among scouts and evaluators that you get fooled in spring training and in September. In both cases, teams are giving opportunity to evaluate younger, inexperienced players to often face other younger, inexperienced players. Have a big Grapefruit League performance, like outfielder Aaron Hicks, and suddenly you may find yourself with a starting position in April. Similarly, have a big September call-up performance, as Chris Parmelee did in 2011, and the following year you may be at the top of the depth chart. Success (or failure) in these environments can cause even the best evaluators to make ill-advised decisions. Former manager Bobby Valentine had been vocal about avoiding evaluating players based on September play. As did former Rockies manager Jim Tracy, who scoffed at the idea of evaluating players on a twenty-two game sample in 2011. Twins general manager Terry Ryan, a former scout himself who has seen plenty of September baseball, agreed. “I’m not so sure you can’t equate it to success or failure,” Ryan said recently in terms of evaluating his call-ups performance in the season’s final month. There are players who will excel and those who tank miserably, and this sampling should not be reflective of their long-term expectations. Even so, it is hard not to want to embrace players like catcher Josmil Pinto. Much like Parmelee did in 2011, Pinto has grabbed the remaining Twins fans’ attention by hitting 13-for-23 (.565) with six extra base hits over his first seven games. Since 1980, only Jay Bruce (.577) had a better start to his career through seven games. Beyond just the numbers, Pinto’s offensive skill set has certainly been impressive. Prior to Tuesday’s game against the A’s, he had demonstrated solid strike zone judgment while making excellent contact. In fact, he had seen 49 fastballs and swung-and-missed at only one. In addition to that, the Venezuelan backstop had ripped line drives all over the field – proving that he was not just an eager rookie swinging from his heels. Now, it is sad, depressed jerks like me who have to use this platform to point out that this production is unsustainable. When it comes to the numbers, seven games is absolutely nothing. And so are the next baker’s dozen or so after this. Nothing that Pinto does statistically makes him the automatic heir to the catcher’s throne in 2013. Like Parmelee, Pinto has not received the full-out advanced scouting treatment. In September 2011, people loved Parmelee’s approach and his ability to put a charge into the ball. Meanwhile, in 2012, opponents created a better game plan suited to getting him out. While they adjusted, Parmelee struggled to keep up. Since that magical month, he has hit just .226/.301/.374 in 149 games. Download attachment: Chart.PNG In Pinto’s case, he’s been very successful in counts in which pitchers attack the zone, like when he is ahead in the count (6-for-8, .750) and on even counts (5-for-7, .714). In last night’s game alone, the A’s staff threw Pinto 18 pitches, of which 15 were fastballs. As advanced scouts begin to see this pattern, they will likely advise their pitchers to change their approach – maybe more off-speed stuff or pitches on the edges of the plate. The Twins will travel to Oakland next week and for the first time in his major league career, opponents will have a second chance to game plan him. By that time, expect some changes in the pitchers’ approach. That match-up will be a milestone in his player development – will he be able to adjust at the plate along with the pitchers? This is not to say that Pinto cannot have a solid career in baseball. Over his eight minor league seasons, he has posted a 790 OPS. For comparison, former top catching prospect Wilson Ramos managed a 756 OPS in his six minor league seasons. Ramos, who started his major league career two years younger than Pinto, has continued to hit above-average for the Washington Nationals. Pinto can be a solid contributor for 2014 but do not base it on his performance in this month alone. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Food.jpg The Minnesota Twins and Delaware North Sportservices hosted a sampling of the new Target Field food lineup and TwinsDaily’s John Bonnes and Parker Hageman were on-hand to cover the new items and some ballpark favorites. Beginning at Hrbek’s the Twins introduced some of their new food items, including offerings from [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] elebrity chef Andrew Zimmern (a lamb/goat burger), freshly battered walleye fingers from Mac’s Fish & Chips, Panino’s Baked Sandwiches, new brats from Sheboygan Sausage Co and a trio of mac ‘n cheese selection from the Food Network just to name a few. The Twins dubbed the event “The Graze” as a collection of media members and lucky season ticket holders circulated the ballpark sampling a variety of food and beverages. Along with the new items, plenty of the old favorites will return, such as the Murray’s Steak Sandwich, the El Burrito Mercado’s Walk A Taco, Tony O’s Cuban Sandwich and Loon Café Chili. Opening Day cannot arrive quickly enough but the Twins have a fully loaded food and drink menu to draw you into the ballpark all season long. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: HicksDozier.jpg On Tuesday night in Boston, Aaron Hicks compounded his issues with the manager with a seemingly innocuous action on the field in the eighth inning, with the Twins securely up by six runs. With Jonny Gomes up at the plate, the Sox’s beefy right fielder lifted a fly ball into short center field. Hicks came racing in from the deepest regions of center field in Fenway (which is also shallow Maine) and in one motion nabs the falling sphere and flips it to second baseman Brian Dozier. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Afterwards, the Fox Sports North camera transitioned to the ancient Fenway dugout to capture manager Ron Gardenhire mimicking Hicks’ maneuver to one of the coaches and displaying general displeasure for what his center fielder just did. The broadcast team went over the play several times and then provided a close-up of Hicks who seemed to be peeking in the direction of the dugout while his manager fumed. Here you can find a quick glimpse of the play in question: When he came in after the inning, Hicks was greeted by Gardenhire, who, if he had any sense of Lou Brown/Major League humor at all, would have said “Nice catch Hicks, now don’t ever f**king do that again.” Instead, in the far corners of the green dugout, Gardenhire subjected Hicks to a Twins Way re-education seminar. Again, it was simple enough. Nothing overtly flashy or egregious. It was not as if the rookie had flipped the ball behind his back or between his legs. He did not take a pen out of his back pocket and sign it nor did he perform the Sam Cassell “big ball” celebration dance. While one cannot say for certain, this feels like a move that Torii Hunter and Carlos Gomez had done a handful of times during their tenure with the Minnesota Twins. Still, when you are put on Gardy’s double-secret probation list, the slightest indiscretion triggers these types of reactions. Hicks’ recent defensive gaffes had pushed him out of the lineup on Tuesday. On Monday, the center fielder allowed a seemingly catchable fly ball to drop to the earth and on a later play he overshot his cutoff man by four states – a play that was only salvaged because Pedro Florimon was able to make a strong throw home and Joe Mauer was able to sell the fact that he applied the tag when no tag was made. Ron Gardenhire thought the play should have been much easier than that. Monday night was not the first time this year in which the manager had to take a moment to lecture his young player on the merits of hitting the cut-off man. During spring training, Hicks missed his cut and Gardenhire talked to him afterwards in the dugout. "It was perfectly understandable why he got into me," Hicks told reporters after the spring training game. "I have to be able to hit the cutoff man. That's my job. That's what needed to be done, and I didn't do it." Overall, his defensive performance has been even more troublesome than just those two isolated instances. According to UZR/150, his mark of -14.2 runs is 18th out of 23 qualified center fielders. Meanwhile, his Revised Zone Rate (RZR) of .862 ranks 22 out of 23 – meaning that he is making just 86.2% of in-zone plays that center fielders should make. Lastly, Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus has his contribution at -5. Certainly the small sample size warning applies but the three metrics all agree and appear to confirm the eye test that Hicks is not a defensive wizard to this point in the season. There is no question that Hicks has the speed to cover copious amounts of real estate and an arm to shut down opponents’ running games. He still has a lot to learn about how the game is played at the major league level. Gardenhire wants him to understand that you cannot have a million dollar arm and a ten cent head. Click here to view the article

There is no shortage in interest of Miguel Sano among Minnesota Twins fans. Last weekend, extended lines stretched around the Dome of people waiting to secure an autograph of a player who is still several years away from making his big league debut. This week, MLB.com announced their Top 100 prospects and labeled Sano the best third base prospect in baseball as well as the 12th overall in the game. He’s all the rage. Rarely do I field any question more from Twins fans these days than “When do you think that Sano will be ready?” Pronunciations of his last name will vary but the curiosity for the kid who has pummeled pitching at the lowest levels of the minors is growing rapidly in the Twin Cities and beyond. Defensively the mission is clear: Cut down on the errors. As a player just learning the position, this should be improved upon by time and repetition. Offensively, his obvious strong suit, there are a few wrinkles to smooth out prior to making it to Minnesota. Those who have followed his development on a regular basis have seen the unbelievable scouting grades on his power. This past August, former Baseball Prospectus prospect maven and current Houston Astros front office member Kevin Goldstein reiterated that he viewed Sano’s power potential as an 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Sano’s first season in the Midwest League (low-A), certainly did nothing but possibly make scouts think about adding a few more numbers on to that scale to account for his pop. In addition to leading the league with 28 home runs (nine more than the next closest), he also led the league in isolated power average (.263) as well. That is an impressive statistic considering the league’s average for isolated power is around .120. And, the Midwest League, while favorable to hitters is not nearly the launching pad as compared to other leagues such as the California and Carolina leagues. While playing like a man among boys thus far in his career, at just age 19, Sano has plenty of adjustment to be made before launching shots into the third left field deck at Target Field. For example, not striking out so damn much. Analysts like to compare Sano’s potential to that of Miguel Cabrera. With Sano’s large frame that has not matured fully, one can see where the comparison comes from. Yet one key difference is that Cabrera struck out in about half of the minor league plate appearances that the Twins prospect has. Cabrera, who was called up by the Marlins as a 20-year-old, whiffed in just 16% of his minor league plate appearances. Meanwhile Sano, in 500 fewer professional plate appearances, has struck out 26% of the time. One correction the Twins and Sano have made since his Gulf Coast League days is quieting his noisy hands. In 2010, still a raw player fresh from the Dominican, Sano demonstrated a healthy bit of waggle to his bat – that is the constant movement of his hands prior to and when the pitch was being delivered. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1359731313_Sano1.gif Fast forward to the 2012 season with Beloit, Sano’s swing is much steadier, keeping his hands and bat still, which should lead to better contact and a quicker point A-to-B swing. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Sano2.gif Obviously, this change does not appear to have influenced his strikeout totals -- as that total rose again from 2011 to 2012 – but the difference was that he saw a noticeable reduction in the amount of strikeouts swinging (from 21% in ’11 to 18% in ’12) and an increase in the strikeouts looking (from 5% in ’11 to 8% in ’12). Incremental but perhaps an important step in Sano’s development. In addition to his strikeout rate, another area of his game to watch in 2013 is his line drive rate. Line drive rate is an important indicator which shows if a hitter is making solid, square contact. Likewise, among the three methods of putting the ball in play, line drives have the highest percentage of turning into a hit. Sano’s line drive rate has declined over the last three years while his fly ball rate has spiked, particularly from 2011 to 2012. According to minorleaguecentral.com, Sano held a 38% fly ball rate in 2011 but witnessed that rate jump to 48% last year. Not surprising, Sano’s batting average also dropped sharply from .292 to .258. Unless you are a player who can hit out a vast majority of their fly balls and while Sano led the Midwest League in the amount of flies to leave the park, there are still a high number that stay in the confines and those are turned into outs at a very favorable percentage to the defense. Without having watched him play on a regular basis, the compilation of videos available on the internets show somewhere around 15-to-20 of his swings. This reveals a player who is extremely susceptible to chasing after the low ball. As opponents’ reports spread from the Appy League to the Midwest League – not to mention pitchers’ ability to locate better -- Sano likely has seen a high dosage of pitches down. This tendency may explain the spike in his fly balls (as well as his hefty strikeout rate). When going after a pitch down in the zone, Sano will drop the bat at an angle which causes hitters to elevate the ball more frequently. As mentioned before, a good amount of those knee-high fastballs can be lifted up and out of the park but an even high total will be turned into outs in the outfield. Sano, who will start the 2013 season with the Ft Myers Miracle, will almost certainly experience a drop in his power numbers – particularly his home run totals. Ignore it. The Florida State League squelches offensive output. Rather, focus on the peripheral numbers (is he striking out more or less) and his batted ball tendencies (is he producing more line drives). Most of all: Show patience. There’s no question that Miguel Sano has a bright future ahead of him but he has a couple more years of work ahead of him. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MItch Williams.jpg For Twins fans who were fortunate enough to tune into last night's Twins-Rangers broadcast on FOX, they were treated with the soothing baritone of former pitcher Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams. Turns out, Williams is the new Joe Morgan of saying semi-crazy things on the air. In the top of the first, Denard Span on first base and discussing Texas's starter Derek Holland return from the disabled list, Williams said that he "does not believe in the slide step" - the abbreviated leg kick in which a pitcher expedites his throw home in order to keep the runner from stealing a base. His reasoning behind that was that it "leads to injuries". Interesting. I had not heard that theory from anyone, anywhere. The kicker of the evening which forced me to head to the bar and watch the game without any volume was his explanation of the non-balk call on Holland once Ben Revere reached first. Here is the video (forgive the quality of the video, it is shot of the TV from my camera phone). During the play, you will hear Williams emphatically deny that Holland's move to first to pick off Revere is not a balk. (Also, in the background you will hear FOX's microphones picking up Ron Gardenhire's choice words towards the umpiring crew for their miss on that call.) Williams' central argument revolves around the landing point of Holland's front foot - that it "has to be in the middle between home and first". Prior to that, he tells the viewing audience that Holland's foot does not come "closing to crossing" and that he is at least "45 degrees". The problem with Williams' call is twofold: (1) It was not what the Twins had beef with and (2) by MLB's rule, it was almost certainly a balk. According the MLB's rule, section 8.05: What you see in the clip is Holland's lead foot crossing his body during the leg kick - indicating that he is going to pitch to home plate or, as per the rules, it was a "motion naturally associated with his pitch." Revere breaks on this movement convinced that Holland is going towards the plate. That is what Gardy and the team is so worked up about. Holland's motion clearly was an attempt to deceive the runner. Needless to say, the balk rule is pretty muddled and open for interpretation. However, Williams, who is, again, a former pitcher and a part-time broadcaster, is completely unfamiliar with the balk rules. Nowhere in the written rules do they discuss a "45 degree" angle in which a left-handed pitcher's foot must land. Much like some imaginary line in which a batter crosses when check-swinging for a strike, this also does not exist in the rules. Hopefully before his next national broadcast somebody at FOX gives Williams a copy of MLB's rules to read. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7814548.jpg There have been few examples of teams having their Opening Day starter the previous season see his value deflate to the point where he clears waivers a year later and is traded for a stack of dollar bills. But that’s exactly what the Twins did with Vance Worley when they traded him to the Pirates for cash considerations. The interest was understandably minimal, said Twins assistant GM Rob Antony, after the 26-year-old right-hander passed through the waiver system unscathed but, based on his age and his past track record, there were several teams that inquired about him. “There was some (interest) right after he cleared waivers, some teams looked at him as their reclamation project,” said Antony. “So there were a few teams that expressed interest. I wouldn’t say anybody was jumping through the phone. I think everyone was looking at him the same way we were: What happened to this guy? We used to have really good reports on him but now they are not so good, otherwise they would have claimed him.” With the Rochester rotation as crowded as it is and Worley’s rapid descent on the organization’s depth chart, the Twins recognized it was in the best interest of the player to allow him to re-establish his value elsewhere. The Pirates are known for their interest in groundball pitchers and Worley, despite all of his struggles last year, demonstrated a high worm-burner rate of 47%. “I told him when we outrighted him that if somebody came and I saw an opportunity for him, a better path back to the majors, that I would try to do something for him,” Antony admitted. “I think maybe a change of scenery would be good for him or gone well for him. Sometimes it starts to snowball on you and you look for a fresh start.” Earlier in the spring, Worley acknowledged that he struggled to keep the ball down in the zone, a fact that was punctuated with the sound of loud impact. In 10 starts last year, opponents banged him around to the deafening tune of .381/.427/.557. When opponents put the ball in play (and they did so a lot considering he missed very few bats), they were able reach safely over 40% of the time -- the highest in the game with a minimum of 40 innings pitched. “For whatever reason, he didn’t throw the ball as hard as he could in the past, he couldn’t get the ball down in the zone and he couldn’t figure out why. I think there was some mechanical things we tried to do with him that he wasn’t able to do, to change some of things that he knew he had to change.” This spring was more of the same. While there were issues identified, Worley struggled to correct them. “You’d see him throw some good pitches with angle down in the zone and the next batter he’d elevate and they’d hit it in the gap. There just wasn’t consistency.” Remaining down in the zone regularly was Worley’s biggest issue both last season and this spring. Reviewing the data from ESPN/TruMedia, we find that Worley’s location was indeed higher in the strike zone than his previous seasons. In 2011, he was up in the zone on just 29.1% of his pitches. The next season that dropped to 26.8%. This past year, however, a whopping 36% of his offerings were elevated. Download attachment: worley_2013.jpg 2013 Download attachment: Worley_2012.png 2012 His two-seamer with run was now not moving with the same arm-side run that he displayed in 2012. He was not working pitches down in the zone with the same frequency. As a result: Whammy. How does a pitcher go from the Opening Day starter one season to being someone else’s reclamation project the next? “We were going off his past successes as much as what we saw in the spring last year,” Antony replied. “He didn’t pitch like a guy who should be handed the ball on Opening Day but that was the way it stacked up and he had been there and I think it tells you a little bit about the state of our pitching last year. I just don’t think you can run scared of that. The guy was two years removed from being third in the National League Rookie of the Year.” The Twins could be facing another deal similar to Worley's if Scott Diamond, who was reportedly put on waivers on Wednesday, slides through unclaimed. Like Worley, Diamond has dealt with minor ailments and poor results that have devalued his stock. Click here to view the article

Question: Why is this graph smiling? Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here. Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins: “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.” This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science.Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins. And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI. As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings. And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever. Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness. The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease. The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this: "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times." So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 10-18.jpg With tickets and Homer Hankies sold out for days, Minnesota Twins fans were more than ready for the main event to start. However the World Series did not start off in the Twins’ favor. Not immediately anyway. The Cardinals clung to a one-nothing lead through the first three innings. Jim Lindeman, a former roommate of Kirby Puckett’s at Bradley University, reached on a double after his old roomie misjudged what should have been a caught popup to shallow center and later scored on an RBI groundout by Tony Pena. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Shortstop Greg Gagne, who fielded the Pena bouncer that allowed Lindeman to score, drew criticism from ABC’s analyst Tim McCarver for the play. McCarver’s analysis, as the Star Tribune’s Bob Lundgaard pointed out, was wrong -- which is surprising considering the color man’s usually spot-on takes. As it turns out, the run proved to be as harmless as a minnow bite. Although the left-handed Joe Magrane, a former Minnesota resident himself, had kept the potent Twins hitless through the first three innings, the Twins offense came alive in the fourth inning. Gary Gaetti, the American League Championship Series MVP, led off the bottom of the fourth with a single. Prior to the game, Gaetti had chatted with reporters in the clubhouse about the Twins’ chances of winning the Series. After Gaetti’s single, Don Baylor did the same. Ditto for Tom Brunansky. Kent Hrbek followed suit with a chopper up the middle and drove in the team’s first two runs of the Series. People worried about Hrbek. After all, he had gone 1-for-20 in the ALCS against Detroit. The single, even if it was just a chopper, helped reassure fans he was OK. Later, he talked about that at-bat to the Star Tribune’s Tony Moton. When Steve Lombardozzi walked, the fifth consecutive Twins hitter to reach base, Whitey Herzog emerged to tell Magrane his night was over. Magrane exited to a chorus of “Happy Trails” by Twins fans. Herzog called on veteran Bob Forsch. Catcher Tim Launder promptly started the singles parade again to score another run and reload the bases. That's when outfielder Dan Gladden came to the plate. During the regular season, the mulleted Gladden had seven plate appearances with the bases loaded. He had managed just a single in those at-bats. Earlier in the game Gladden had grounded into a fielder’s choice, eliminating Tim Laudner, who had walked in front of him, at second. With one out, Magrane decided to pay extra attention to the Twins’ outfielder, throwing over to first nine consecutive times reported one Star Tribune blurb. (Nevertheless, on the next batter, Gladden promptly stole second.) Magrane admitted after the game he focused too much on Gladden, wrote Star Tribune staff writer Jon Roe. Now, with the bases loaded and Magrane out of the game, Gladden launched a 1-2 Forsch offering over the left field plexiglass for the first grand slam in a World Series game since 1970 and put the Twins squarely ahead 7 to 1. The noise at the Dome registered 118 decibels -- the same as a jet taking off -- when the ball cleared the fence. Twins shortstop Greg Gagne said afterwards that the volume of the crowd was unbelievable at that moment. Sid Hartman later talked to then-Twins general manager Andy McPhail regarding the process of acquiring Gladden late in spring training that year. After the game Steve Lombardozzi, who would be the recipient of a Gladden punch a season later, raved about the outfielder’s contributions to reporter Dennis Brackin. The Twins’ starting pitcher Frank Viola, who had to forgo being the best man at his brother’s wedding, was unsolvable for the majority of the game. Having a 10-1 lead didn’t hurt either. Outside of the Puckett misplay that led to the Cardinals’ only run, his results were virtually flawless. Prior to being pulled after eight innings, he retired 12 of the last 14 batters he faced and did not allow a baserunner past first from the fourth inning on. If things had gone differently and the Twins were inclined to shop Viola during the lean years, he may have been in the other dugout, wrote the Star Tribune’s Steve Aschburner. The action off the field was just as intense, particularly for the wife of one Cardinal player. Booker was also three months pregnant at the time and was deemed by the hospital to be in fair condition afterward. Her husband, Rod, was actually a former Twins draft pick who had spent three seasons in the organization, reaching AAA in 1982, but was purchased by the Cardinals shortly after the 1983 season began. Booker was left off the World Series roster in 1987. A few sections away from Booker’s knockout, Chip and Wendy Lantz had donned a tuxedo and a white dress. The Anoka couple had wed just hours before the first pitch and found themselves with tickets to the biggest game of the year. It almost didn’t happen -- the game, not the wedding. The bride had a ticket, the groom did not. She told columnist Jim Klobuchar she was ready to go the game -- on her wedding night -- minus the new hubby. That is, until her two brothers gave them a surprise wedding gift. The newlyweds’ good fortune finding a pair of tickets was not the norm around the area. That morning, the Twins placed 11,200 tickets for games 6 and 7 and the seats could only be ordered by phone from Dayton’s. The rush of calls overwhelmed the phone grid, Northwestern Bell’s agents told the Star Tribune’s Mary Jane Smetanka, knocking out service as far west as Bismarck, North Dakota as well as parts of South Dakota, Iowa and Wisconsin. While the inconvenience lasted just a few hours, it was enough to irk some residents of the state. Oh. I'm sure watching Joe Magrane throw over to first nine times in a row to keep Dan Gladden close didn't help the pace. **** More Revisiting October: October 12, 1987: Twins Top Tigers October 16, 1987: Twins Mania Grips Minnesota Click here to view the article

Following a spring in which he struck out 33 and walked just five opponents, for three straight starts Francisco Liriano has failed to demonstrate much command over the strike zone. After posting a 49.2% first-pitch strike rate in 2011, the worst mark in baseball, the Twins left-handers has come out of the gate attempting to best that by throwing a first-pitch strike just 42.9% of the time. Meanwhile, as the rest of the league has peppered the strike zone with bullets 49% of the time overall, Liriano has been hitting the zone in just 41% of his pitches. This has resulted in nine walks in 11.1 innings pitch or, to look at it another way, he’s walked 14.2% of all the batters he has faced. And it is not as if he is just missing by a hair either. Watching him work, Liriano frequently misses his catcher’s target by a country mile. Last night Twins catcher Ryan Doumit would ask for a pitch slightly off Broadway only to receive a fastball that was launched into Hoboken. After the game, Liriano told reports that “Nothing is bothering me. I’m 100 percent healthy. I’m just missing my spots and pitching behind the count and you get hurt, especially with hitters like that.” In his blog last night, Lavelle Neal suggested that part of the reason he is having problems is that Liriano “lacks confidence” right now. While lack of confidence may be a byproduct of pitching poorly, Liriano is clearly struggling mechanically. Take a look at some images from Liriano’s very good 2010 season – one in which he worked ahead of hitters (62% first-pitch strike) and walked few (7.2% walk rate). Below we see Liriano in a July 16, 2010 start against the White Sox. Look at his front leg at the point of release. Notice that his weight is complete above his front leg which is driving towards the plate: Download attachment: Liriano_2010.1.7.21.10.JPG Here is another example of that from a start on June 11 of that year. Once again, his lower half is well stabilized and he is driving towards the plate at his release point: Download attachment: Liriano_2010.4.6.12.10.JPG This year, however, rather than maintaining good balance over his front leg, he has been driving his weight off of the driveline and towards the third base side of the field. The image below is from his April 12, 2012 start against the Angels. Notice now that instead of being directly over that front leg, his weight – particularly his front hip – is pulling towards his glove side at his release point: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.4.JPG Here is another example: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.JPG In his first start of the year in Baltimore, we see the same thing: when he plants, his weight is already shirting towards his glove side: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.5.4.7.12.JPG What this does is rather than generate his momentum towards home plate he is carrying off of the driveline and thus losing the ability to command his pitches. It is part of the reason why his fastball so often jumps up and away into the left-handed batter’s box. Because the center field cameras at Yankee Stadium are so off-kilter, it is nearly impossible to grab a shot that you can see where his balance point is driving towards but I would surmise that his “flying open” likely played a significant role in last night’s start as well. Also, it is hard to distinguish if Liriano was exhibiting this fall off during the spring. The one game that was capture on camera was at the Yankees’ spring training complex which also has the same off-set camera angle from center field and provides little context and depth. Either way, I would suspect (hope) that this is something the Twins and Rick Anderson are diligently trying to get him to correct and reminding him before, during and after each start. Part of this could just be that Liriano, in efforts to make perfect pitches in his free agent season, is getting too amped up and overthrowing. A pitching coach can only remind a pitcher so many times to make adjustments before the pitcher must simply relax and listen. With three poor starts under his belt and the team running low on starting options, Liriano needs to return to his 2010 form quickly. Click here to view the article

Ryan Pressly’s odds of making the bullpen when the Minnesota Twins break camp in April appear somewhere between slim and none. On a liberal guess, there are likely three spots open and two of those may already belong to Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak. The remaining vacancy? That’s competition between a Twins’ bullpen incumbent in Casey Fein, baseball’s relief innings leader last season in Josh Roenicke, and two former major leaguers trying to re-establish their careers in Rich Harden and Rafael Perez. So where does that leave a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick who has fewer than 30 innings of experience above Double-A? Probably with a one-way ticket back to Pawtucket with all the clam chowder he can eat waiting for him. Because of the Rule 5 draft’s rules, if Pressly is not placed on the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to Boston. However, there is another route Pressly could go to remain within the Twins’ system and that is if the team pulls a trade similar to the one that landed them Scott Diamond from the Braves. In order to do so, the Twins will need to place him through the waivers, exposing him to all the MLB teams, prior to negotiating a trade with the Red Sox. Would Pressly be worth it? There are plenty of people within the organization who firmly believe in his capabilities as a major league contributor. When the Twins selected him in early December out of the Red Sox organization, plenty of officials were already infatuated with his stuff. The Twins director of scouting Vern Followell, who followed Pressly since high school, said that he envisioned the right-hander to be a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Early in camp, manager Ron Gardenhire was also keen on the youngster, noting that while Pressly was a bit erratic, he was impressed by his fastball. What’s more is that Pressly was facing the meat of the big club’s order during his live BP sessions including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Trevor Plouffe. Pressly works with a three pitch repertoire that is comprised of a mid-90s two-seam fastball, exquisite tilt on his curve and a good changeup. With those three pitches, the Sox had designs of making him a starter. While he did well with his secondary offerings, Pressly’s fastball often got him into trouble and he wound up with a high number of free passes issued. What is interesting about Pressly is that he make opposite handed hitters – lefties – miss more often than same-sided ones. This is not usually true as right-handed pitchers are much better at striking out right-handed batter thanks to the ability to hide the ball better and spin pitches away from their swing. Given the , one would assume he would thrive against righties but that has not been the case. Still, in 2012 – his first year in the bullpen – Pressly struck out 14% of right-handed batters faced but yielded a 25% strike out mark against lefties thanks to a strong running fastball and changeup combination. Take a look at this clip of his changeup thrown to Justin Morneau this week: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1361543132_Pressly.gif (Video courtesy of MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger) According to the StarTribune’s Phil Miller, this incited the Twins first baseman to describe the pitch as “nasty” afterwards. Pressly’s changeup has a strong bite down and away from the left-handed swing. Based on this action, one can easily conclude how he is able to achieve such a high percentage of strikeouts against the opposite hand. Competition may ultimately keep Pressly out of the hunt for the final bullpen spot but his strengths as a reliever should not go unnoticed this spring. Keep an eye on his ability to command his fastball. If he impresses enough, he may be given an opportunity to remain with the organization. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: CoryProvus (1).jpg With statistical analysis playing an ever more prominent role in major league front offices, some teams have tweaked their broadcast teams to help advance the decision-making conversation with their fan base over the airwaves. The Houston Astros hired Robert Ford and former major league knuckler Steve Sparks to push the envelope for the revamped front office, which includes plenty of brain power. The Astros are making decisions based on science rather than guts, instincts and chew spit. Yet for every progressive pair like Ford and Sparks, there’s the old school Hawk Harrelson types who denounce the stats guys at every turn. In fact, when asked if advanced stats would be something viewers would like in broadcasts during an MLB Network show, Harrelson scoffed. “It’s not ready yet,” the White Sox broadcaster said. “Down the road, 40 or 50 years, when you can put some of those categories, you get your OBPS and all that, your VORPs, when you put in TWTW [“The Will To Win”], and interface those numbers with TWTW, that category, then you might have something cooking.” Beefing up the numbers in a broadcast is a hard pill to swallow for some teams. After all, the concepts, stats and acronyms are still foreign to a significant portion of the fans. There is likely a percentage of listeners who fully believe The Will To Win trumps any number. Advanced statistics and sabermetrics are often thought of as a niche. Locally, the Twins hired Chicago-area native Cory Provus away from the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2012 season. Provus was kind enough to offer his insights about the broadcast industry and the challenges it presents in discussing and promoting some of those concepts on the radio: How do you feel about advanced stats and their role in the game today – particularly in your broadcasts? The more baseball I am around now, I think it is imperative to at least pay attention to the metrics that are in the game today. They are a prominent part of the game and they’re becoming vital to the way rosters are being assembled – and I’m not just talking about the 25-man, but I think throughout your system. At the same time you have to remember the medium, particularly the medium I work in, how often you use numbers – in the medium of radio – where you just don’t have the capability through numbers on the screen and let people digest that. For example, this is just me, but I process things visually, so if you are trying to explain to me – or anybody – if I had a question about balls in play…..I had a question for [Glen] Perkins about that in Detroit last week about the average that players and pitchers try to shoot for. Only he was explaining it to me and I was trying to process it and then I remembered the visual of it and it starts to sink in. So maybe I take that selfish approach to the broadcast and I am always conscious of the medium we work that we don’t have the ability to throw a graphic on the screen and let people visualize it and then digest it. Do you think you can convey the concepts of advanced metrics during the broadcasts? I think that you can, not so much metrics, but for example, I went on Fangraphs.com for a while this morning and I wanted to compare John Lackey in 2007 – that great year he had and won 19 games and finished like third in the Cy Young balloting that year – and looking at Fangraphs and what he was throwing, the average speeds he was throwing, to what he was throwing. Now, the sample is a lot smaller because of the injury aspect, but I was somewhat surprised that the fastball velocity is pretty constant, pretty consistent with what he did in ’07 compared to what he’s throwing now, he’s average is about 91 with his fastball which is exactly what he was throwing in ’07. However what I find interesting is the difference between ’07 and today is he is throwing more sliders now and less curveballs. And that’s I think probably because of the injury. I remember [Milwaukee Brewers’ radio broadcaster] Bob Uecker told me one time…I thought the slider was the most dangerous pitch on your shoulder on your arm on your elbow, and he always told me the curveball puts more strain, even though you throw it with less velocity, the tighter grip and the more torque you’re putting on it. So that makes sense when you look at the injuries [Lackey] is coming back and what he is throwing now and what he was throwing in the past. I found that very interesting. Do you use any other sites in preparation for your broadcasts? I look at BrooksBaseball.net just for my own knowledge. I’ll take a look at that from time to time. I am aware that there is a demographic of the audience that loves that stuff and thrives on that stuff and it is important. But also remember that I think my primary job is to tell a story. And I would rather tell stories based on person to person contact, based on what I found out that day from talking to the players and coaches. While I think stats are important, I also think stats are a crutch. I think that it goes back to the way I was brought up in baseball broadcasting where dead air isn’t the worst thing in the world. In baseball it is good to let game breathe; Let people hear the sounds, let people hear the emotions of the crowd, the vendors hawking programs and hot dogs, hearing the PA guy, hearing the crack of the bat. I would rather do that then get into stat after stat after stat. Are there any stats you prefer over others? I think on-base percentage is a stat I do rely on. I think too many times I go back and listen to my own stuff and I think, man I keep bringing up batting average. Danny [Dan Gladden] and I both think on-base percentage should trump batting average. We are of that belief that, maybe we should be better as a team to hammer that stat across more than batting average. Stats are important, they’re a vital part of the game but I think that often times, they are used as a crutch. And I would always rather tell a story than give a stat. Do you feel it to be part of your job to educate the listeners on understanding these stats and their context? Part of our job is to education as well. Educate about strategy, Educate about rules, and this day and age now, educate about metrics and the way they are applied to a current game and to the ways teams are being built. You worked with the legendary Bob Uecker in Milwaukee prior to working with the Twins. Is there anything different about the way that broadcast was approached? Was there any advanced stats discussions? Bob and I were telling stories and having fun. Trying to inform and education but keeping people entertained. That’s what we tried to do every night. I don’t think we got into sabermetrics in any way, shape or form. If it does not fit well in the broadcast, where do you see the conversation being had about statistical analysis on the air? I think it’s a good conversation during a rain delay. I think if we have time to kill during a rain delay, it’s not a bad thing to approach but I go back to how many people are really going to understand it with the medium of radio? Are we going to be throwing so many names and so many numbers across without the benefit of the visual, is everybody really going to get it? I don’t know. I would think that some people would be confused by it, because I would be confused by it. Summarize your approach to the broadcast. It’s fun. It’s a game. It’s baseball. It’s not rocket science; it’s not trying to solve the financial crisis around the world here. We’re trying to give people a break from their lives for three-and-a-half hours. Let them kind of laugh, let them learn, let them have fun, let them hear something that maybe brings them back to their childhood. That’s what I try to do each and every day. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7855954.jpg The Indians’ David Murphy should send the Minnesota Twins’ front office and coaching staff a bottle of champagne. After all, the struggling left-handed outfielder hast just six doubles this season but two of those came courtesy of the Twins when they have infielders positioned in the outfield. While the 2014 Twins infield numbers have flourished, the outfield has languished. The Twins’ outfield was a defensive liability last year. In 2013, they posted an unsightly -35.3 UZR as an outfield unit. Of course, if you solely relied on the broadcasts of the games, you would have likely heard that the Twins outfield had a .991 fielding percentage, 4th best in the game. In short, last year’s outfield was very good...if the ball was hit directly at them. But overall they converted a lowly 84.4% of all outfield flies into outs -- a rate that was 29 out of 30 MLB teams. With the knowledge that the team had issues in this department, the Twins front office did little to address that particular need in the offseason. Naturally, starting pitching took precedence. Yet little preparation was made to provide any safety net, or improvement. In fact, the only outfield addition this past year, Jason Kubel, provided questionable defense in corner outfield spots at his best. There was a method to this madness. The Twins had Josh Willingham locked in. They had to find out if Aaron Hicks could manage center field and if Oswaldo Arcia could claim right field. Beyond that, heading into camp, there was some depth (some depth in the same way there is some water in the desert). Kubel could take over for either Willingham or Arcia if necessary. Alex Presley had played a decent center field and Darin Mastroianni was certainly capable as well. But what is clear now -- as much as it seemed obvious even then -- is that there was a razor thin margin for error. Would Willingham, a much maligned player coming off knee surgery, survive an entire year? Hicks had little track record to suggest he was going to capture the position, which could be the same thing said about Arcia. At the very least, in the case with Hicks and Arcia, the Twins deserve credit for wanting to see the kids play. The problem is that they purchased a very ****ty insurance policy. When it came time to make the final roster decisions, the leadership, including the manager, decided that Jason Bartlett would be a super utility-type -- a move that was necessitated just as much by the lack of confidence in Pedro Florimon as anything -- which came at the expense of Presley, an actual outfielder, who would be claimed by the Houston Astros. In terms of that final roster spot, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony had stated that the decision was influenced by the manager. “When you get down to the tail-end of your roster, I think the manager sort of has to determine how he’s using different guys and it doesn’t make much sense to fill out a roster any other way than how he’s going to use them,” said Antony shortly after the final roster was announced in spring training. As camp wound down, Bartlett saw more time in different outfield positions. After one afternoon in right field, manager Ron Gardenhire weighed in with his thoughts on Bartlett’s performance. “He hasn’t played much out there, he’s just an athlete,” Gardenhire said in March when asked what his thoughts were on Bartlett in the outfield. “He actually ran the ball down great today -- the one ball in the corner, he just got too close to the wall. He’s had no practice in right field and balls in the corner. None whatsoever. He’s just taken balls off the bat. He got some great jumps on a few balls out there. Right field is the toughest out here. You can’t hardly see the ball out there -- everybody will tell you the same thing. I thought he did pretty damn good out there. To tell you the truth I was pleasantly surprised.” Gardenhire went on to say that Bartlett would be receiving plenty of outfield practice, alongside Chris Colabello and Eduardo Escobar, once the season began. The notion, however, that Bartlett would be needed almost immediately in the outfield did not seem to cross his mind. Additionally, the front office said that Bartlett would be available in emergency situations to fill in for Hicks but that Mastroianni would be a phone call away in Rochester. The emergency situations arose in Cleveland just six games into the season when left fielder Josh Willingham was destroyed by a Justin Masterson fastball. With Jason Kubel in right field and Oswaldo Arcia out because of an injury, Bartlett was pressed into left field duty. In the sixth inning, the Indians began to pick on Barlett. First it was Lonnie Chisenhall getting a bonus base because of Bartlett’s play, then Jason Kipnis landing a single in short left field and finally, David Murphy’s first gift double: http://i.imgur.com/7Ahbebc.gif In both instances, the likelihood of actually making the play was remote. According to Inside Edge’s fielding data available at Fangraphs, the IE video scouts suggested that the initial double allowed to Chisenhall had a 40-60% chance of being converted into an out. Murphy’s bloop, on the other hand, received a near 0% chance of being caught. The issue came in Bartlett’s approach -- the attempted dive rather than play it safe and get behind the play and limit Murphy to a one-base hit rather than move into scoring position. His hustle was admirable but his inexperience was on display. Source: FanGraphs This outing resulted in Bartlett’s eventual retirement after he sprained his ankle and opted not to continue through the rehab process. When the Twins returned to Cleveland, they were once again left with a short bench thanks to a pair of concussions to Aaron Hicks and Sam Fuld. With depth being a significant issue, Gardenhire decided to use Escobar in left field. Despite the vote of confidence from his manager after the game, it became apparent during the game that his inexperience -- like not knowing exactly how to read a warning track -- came into play. In that case, Inside Edge’s video scouts said Asdrubal Cabrera’s double was a play that should have been made 90-100% of the time. It essentially cost the Twins that game. Source: FanGraphs The next afternoon, still short of outfielders, Gardenhire promoted Escobar to center field action. This is where David Murphy received his second double from the Twins: http://i.imgur.com/FIZHJXw.gif Undoubtedly a tough read. Line drives that are smoked straight at an outfielder have the tendency to be difficult to read. As of this posting, Inside Edge’s data from that game has not been uploaded to Fangraphs.com so there’s not baseline as to what professional video scouts feel about that particular play. That said, a player like Hicks or Fuld who has a history of seeing those types of plays would be able to get a better jump and route than Escobar did. Through Monday night, the Twins have had infielders in the outfield for 45.2 innings (or 4.6% of the total innings). Of those innings, the players involved have a combined 64 innings of professional outfield experience between them (Danny Santana did have 15 games in center in 2011 with Beloit). While a small sampling, that still is too large. Clearly health-related issues have forced several of these decisions but those were born from the inability to properly build -- or in the case of losing Presley and Mastroianni, manage -- outfield depth in the system. It was the offseason gamble, not the final decision to keep Bartlett on the 25-man roster, that caused so many issues that are resonating today. You are welcome, David Murphy. Click here to view the article

In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year. After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013. Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes: While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team. As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general. The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Sano.jpg On Monday night, Fox Sport North broadcasted the New Britain Rock Cats game, giving Twins fans in the Midwest another glimpse of one of the game’s top-ranked prospects in Miguel Sano. Sano, who went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts lowering his average to .238, made a nifty play on a slow chopper to nail the runner at first to end a threat early in the game. Much has been made about bringing the 20-year-old Sano up to Minnesota this September but the Twins have been steadfast in their development process and not wanting to rush anyone before their time. On Tuesday, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was on MLB Network Radio radio recently and discussed what his roster could look like come September – and it likely does not include Sano. “I’m guessing that probably not,” Gardenhire said when asked if Sano would see action in September. “I would think that [Terry Ryan] has not totally said no to Sano but I think he’s leaning really heavily not doing that move and letting him go home. He’s played a lot of baseball this summer and having him fresh in spring training and see where that takes us.” Gardenhire continued to say that nothing was out of the question but Ryan will be spending the next four or five days in Rochester trying to make the final decision on which players will be on the roster come September. The manager also addressed another question regarding the status of veteran first baseman Justin Morneau, who had cleared waivers last week and is free to be traded to any team. “I’m sure Terry and them have had phone calls and listen,” Gardenhire said, “but everything I’ve heard is that there is money involved and all that and other teams are not wanting to touch money and stuff like that.” Morneau, 32, is owed approximately $3.5 million for the remainder of the season and other teams are not necessarily interested in obtaining that contract in exchange for a player hitting .261/.316/.418 in 503 plate appearances this year. “We would do it for Mornie if the opportunity came,” said Gardenhire. “I’m sure Terry would look at it and think about it really seriously, but we’re also trying to help our ballclub. We’re looking for some kind of prospect or something like that that can help our ballclub next year.” The Twins have not given their fans much reason to watch the club at the season’s conclusion. Dating back to 2011 the Twins have won just 44 of 132 games after July 31 - so any form of excitement to the late season roster would be welcomed. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg The Minnesota Twins’ offseason has been interesting to say the least. With the team trading away not one but two of their major league ready center fielders, the writing on the wall at 1 Twins Way appears to read that the focus is on the future. Outwardly, the Twins are sending the message that they are doing what they can to build a competitive team in 2013 but also taking measures to fortify the club for the coming years. Behind closed doors however, the tone may be different as the reality is that the organization recognizes the window for success begins at least one year down the road. And this may be the reason why Justin Morneau could be traded yet this offseason. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] During the winter meetings, the Twins were reported to have been “gauging interest” from other teams on what they would give for Morneau. Obviously nothing materialized at the time and, furthermore, the Twins may have simply been testing the waters rather than outright shopping their first baseman. That said, as the team made abundantly clear after last season, no one is untradeable. The conditions were not favorable at the time of baseball’s annual agent orgy, at least not for the first base market. Had someone like the Orioles offered up a top flight arm, Morneau may already be eating Maryland crab cakes. Instead, teams were still addressing other needs. Targeting vital up-the-middle position players. Trying to land top-of-the-rotation arms. The game’s top free agents had yet to sign. The dominoes were still mostly intact. That changed yesterday when Angels signed outfielder Josh Hamilton out from under the Texas Rangers’ nose. Not only did the Rangers lose a talented player to their division rival, they also became fairly exposed from the left-side of the plate. Because of that, it may not be long before the Rangers call on Morneau and ask: “How much?” Aside from losing Hamilton’s production from the left side, they also have lost their designated hitter in Young. Potentially desperate to address those needs, Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels may be inquiring on Morneau soon. With the Angels launching themselves into the catbird seat of the AL West and the surprising and youthful Oakland A’s extremely competitive as well, Daniels will surely need to counteract what his rivals have done this winter. From the Rangers’ perspective, targeting Morneau makes plenty of sense. In spite of witnessing a decline in his home run totals in recent years, a new venue could help rejuvenate the Canadian slugger. The Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most favorable environments for left-handed hitters to play. According to StatCorner.com’s Park Factors, Texas’s stadium has a home run factor of 117 (anything over 100 favors hitters). By comparison, Target Field’s confines thwart that type of power production to the tune of 78. In theory, Morneau’s numbers would be enhanced significantly with the Rangers. Additionally, with one year left on his contract, it would be a relatively risk-free (minus the concussion, of course) deal for Texas. Under most circumstances, the idea of asking a team to absorb $14M for a 31-year-old with injury issues may be a tall task, however, Texas is one of a few teams who seem able to assume the risk. The Rangers, who have lost Hamilton’s previous contract ($15.25M), Mike Napoli’s ($9.4M) and a portion of Michael Young’s ($5.5M of his total $16M owed), have payroll space to add Morneau’s contract if they so choose. As it stands, they have roughly $50M committed to players (pre-arbitration contracts, of course) after reached $120M in 2012. After all, in addition to whatever revenue they generate for being one of the best attended teams in the American League (2 of 14), they also have approximately $80 million a year coming in from their TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest. On the other hand, by most measures, the Rangers are a smart team. Daniels has been one of the most impressive general managers in the game – building his organization from the ground up, emphasizing scouting, bringing in elite international talent and targeting quality free agents. After making several moves to acquire players like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster in recent years, he has also lost some notable prospect talent so it is hard to envision the Rangers sacrificing much in any deal. Likewise, the overall market for Morneau was lukewarm at best at the deadline last year. Even losing a star player to a division opponent may not be enough to inspire Daniels to surrender the young pitching the Twins are hoping for. Would Morneau make the Twins better in 2013? Yes. Would trading him upset the fan base? Of course. Is he untouchable? Obviously not. The Twins sent the message at the winter meeting that Morneau could be had for a price, not it appears that the Rangers maybe in a position where they might have to pay that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: images.jpg For the past four years, we have produced an Offseason Handbook to put fans in the driver’s seat of the Twins franchise. Within it, we highlight all of the winter’s impending free agents, potential trade targets and review the organization’s strengths and weaknesses from top to bottom. This culminates with the presentation of our blueprints to improving the team. In my blueprint, I laid out a fairly elementary explanation as to why the Twins failed so miserably in 2012 and, no, it was not a six-word piece that read “JOE MAUER SHOULD HEET MOR DINGERS.”[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While the starting pitching takes precedence and priority, the secondary issue was that scoring runs was also a weak spot for the 2012 squad. Consider this: Only three other American League teams finished with a lower runs per game average than the Minnesota Twins (Seattle, Cleveland and Kansas City). After focusing on repairing the rotation, I outlined several realistic moves that should help elevate the number of runs scored for next season but the move I would like to discuss here is this: Sign Kevin Youkilis. Yes, there is a huge hurdle to clear when it comes to Youkilis and that is his impending option for $12 million which the White Sox hold the rights to. Collectively, because of that hefty payday and his lackluster performance in 2012, we decided that Chicago will opt to pass and allow him to become a free agent. At which point, we estimate that the market will put him in the two-year, $14 million range (or perhaps even a one year, make-good type of contract). Across the board, Youk’s 2012 production was at the lowest levels of his career. His power was down, his average was down and his on-base percentage was down. Even the mighty Greek God of Walks’ walks were down. It could be based on an age-related decline or something mechanical lurking in that funky swing of his, however, if you are basing just purely on his batted ball rates, there is indication that 2013 may see a change for the better. For the most part, Youkilis’s batting ball rates were consistent with his career. His line drive rate was high but he had been hitting a higher percentage of ground balls the past two seasons and those did not find nearly as many holes in the infield as they once did (hence the significant decline in average and OBP). This resulted in a 54 point difference in his batting average on balls in play versus his career norm. Even if he maintains the higher ground ball rate and equals his near 20% line drive rate, he should experience some correction in those numbers. For a guy who sprays the field in all directions regularly, Youkilis also has some pretty significant pull power. From 2008 to 2011, his .899 slugging percentage when yanking the ball was the fourth best in baseball, ahead of even Josh Willingham. Additionally, Youk’s numbers against left-handed pitching in that time was also among the best in the game. His 1.044 OPS in those years facing wrong-handers was the third-highest behind just Albert Pujols and David Wright. Admittedly, a lot of that power is derived from feasting on the close proximity of the Green Monster but even still, Youkilis had success on the road as well. Obviously there are shortcomings when it comes to signing Youkilis. For starters, it denigrates the defense. Heading into his mid-30s, his glove work is not what it used to be. Likewise, as you will find in the blueprint, the subsequent move after signing Youk would be that Trevor Plouffe would be relocated to second base. Once again this downgrades the infield defense (and potentially increases the amount of souvenir balls thrown into the first base stands) but should increase the production in the lineup by putting a power-hitting second baseman in the order. If he indeed bounces back, Youk’s addition would give the Twins the capabilities of moving Mauer up to the two-spot and insert a high quality right-handed bat with impressive on-base skills to, ultimately, score more runs. If you purchase the Offseason Handbook (which you can download a free preview by clicking the link), you will read more about that specific move as well as other recommendations to improve the team. Not only do we provide our blueprints but we supply you with teems of information on the free agent, potential trade targets and the organization from top-to-bottom to allow you to create your own blueprint for success. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg On May 13, not long after sending down incumbent third baseman Danny Valencia to AAA, the Twins GM Terry Ryan called out the option-less Plouffe to step up his game: “I’d like to think we’re going to give Plouffe an opportunity here to step up and see what we’ve got. Eventually, we’re going to have to find out.” Heading into the May 16 contest in Detroit, he was staring down a .133/.288/.217 batting line in 73 plate appearances. The lack of production had incited plenty of conversation regarding whether or not he deserved to be on the roster at this juncture at all. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Perhaps it was recognizing he was down to his proverbial last strike with the organization or that with Danny Valencia and Chris Parmelee sent to Rochester he would receive regular playing time or because he finally cut his damn hippy hair which was hindering his abilities to hit. Whatever the reason, Plouffe suddenly emerged as a serious power threat. From May 16 onward, Plouffe has hit six home runs, two doubles and has driven in nine runs in 13 games. Part of what has lead to the power outburst is that he is turning on pitches far better post-May 16 than he had been doing previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, Plouffe’s pre-May 16 fly balls were traveling an average of 272 feet. Post-May 16, he was driving the ball much further on average, hitting them 295 feet. While the numerals might not do the significance justice, the visual spray charts found at TexasLeaguers.com shows what the discrepancy of over a 20-foot average looks like: Download attachment: Plouffe_Apr-May15.jpg Download attachment: Plouffe_May16.jpg You can see the difference in that not only is Plouffe losing a few more balls over the fence, he is also driving the ball better to the left-center field gap. Prior to this stretch the majority of the time Plouffe turned on a pitch, he would do so and give the defense the opportunity to make a play on the ball. The increase in home runs – as welcomed as they are – still does not cover up the fact that the rest of his overall numbers leaves much to be desired. After all, Plouffe has a sub-.300 on-base percentage even during his recent hot streak. What’s interesting about his numbers is that during the early portion of the season (pre-May 16), Plouffe had walked 13 times in 73 plate appearances in spite of hitting .133. Since then, he has drawn just one walk in 51 plate appearances. Even with the precipitous decline, his walk rate remains above average and the highest of his career to date. Given that he has a 10 percent walk rate one would expect a beefier OBP but that is not the case. What is actually driving the fact that he is hitting below Aaron Gleeman’s weight (which is the modern day Mendoza line) and getting on base less than a 30 percent clip is that his batting average on balls in play – or BABIP - is atrociously bad. In fact, among those with a minimum of 100 plate appearances this year, Plouffe’s .192 BABIP is the fourth-lowest in baseball. Somewhere between 2010 and 2011, the Twins got Plouffe to make several adjustments to his set-up and swing. The new model led to more lift and elevation of pitches which begat a noticeable increase in his power numbers. The problem with fly balls is that if they don’t leave the park, they have a difficult time becoming hits. What’s more is that his fly ball rate has grown significant from last year (now at 47%, up from 40% in 2011) at the expense of his line drive rate. Although this is a good precursor for a home run, hitting a high percentage of fly balls that don’t land on the other side of the fence often are converted to outs. In Plouffe’s case, an even higher than normal amount of flies are being turned into outs, so there is an element of “bad luck” involved. The average fly ball hit has found vacant real estate roughly 13% of the time (by far the lowest among the three types of batted balls) but the flies off of Plouffe’s bat have landed safely just 5% of the time. Likewise, Plouffe’s grounders (39% of his batted balls) have found seams in the defense just 15% of the time, well below the MLB average of 24%. As the season progresses, Plouffe’s figures are likely going to move towards the mean as more fly balls and grounders find free space. Of course, ultimately, unless he raises his line drive rate above the paltry 14.3 percent (only eight other players have lower line drive rates this year), his numbers will not climb all that quickly. Turning on pitches with more authority and greater distance has led to some much needed offense, positive signs for the Twins’ super-utility player. His added plate discipline has given him another dimension as well and may be an indication of progress at the plate. At the same time, we have witnessed Plouffe on a power binge last season that eventually fizzled out later in the year so it is entirely possible that this outburst subsides too. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: deduno.jpg It is probably an indictment of the Minnesota Twins’ rotation when the biggest conversation of the month of March is focused on the performance of a pitcher who is currently not on the team’s 40 man roster. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As Mike Pelfrey, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia continue to turn in clunkers in the Grapefruit League, Samuel Deduno’s sometimes sloppy, sometimes dominating but always energetic outings in the World Baseball Classic -- including last night’s five inning, two hit, three walk and five strikeout victory – has captured many fans’ attentions back in the Upper Midwest. Despite not maintaining the same free and easy motion as he showed during his start against Spain earlier in the tournament, Deduno forged his way past the United States (even while walking in a run and facing several 3-0 counts) and then kept Puerto Rico at bay to help the Dominican Republic capture the World Baseball Classic title. What helped the right-hander up to and in the championship game was having a filthy curveball. This is nothing new for Sammy. Last year, Pitch F/X-ly speaking, he held one of the best curves in baseball – allowing an average of just .160 on the hook, 14th lowest among those who threw it 200 or more times. He was also one of the most frequent users of the curveball, by percentage. Throughout the World Baseball Classic he showed great confidence in this pitch. In his start against Team USA, Deduno had the misfortunate of not only loading the bases, but walking USA’s Eric Hosmer to give the home team an early first inning lead. With the bases still loaded, Deduno went to a full count on Adam Jones and sent him packing with a 3-2 curve for a called strike. Ballsy pitch. In another instance, he would go on to throw a 3-2 bender to his potential battery mate, Joe Mauer, only to get the catcher to roll over to the first baseman. You know how often Mauer had seen a 3-2 curve in 2012? Six times. Last night, of the 14 batters Deduno retired, nine of those came on his curve. When facing Puerto Rico’s Angel Pegan and a runner on second, Deduno spun a 3-2 curveball to get Pegan to turnover and knock into the second out of the inning. Two innings later, Deduno fell behind Jesus Feliciano and ultimately lost him on a curve out of the zone, he proved that he was not going to lay a fastball in there (if, you know, he’s capable of that). As I’ve repeated numerous times, Deduno has got electric stuff which has helped him defy statistical convention for success at the major league level. If opponents are unable to square up pitches and are constantly off-balance with curveballs in fastball counts, it is hard to drive home those hitters he walked. It’s a tightrope act but, so far, Deduno has pulled it off. Click here to view the article