Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Mauer.jpg Parker Hagemen of Twins Daily subs for a vacationing John Bonnes on this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode and topics included whether the Twins are a legitimately decent team or a mirage, Joe Mauer's hot streak and high strikeout rate, funneling food into your face to become a star, Kyle Gibson's timetable, Mother's Day hijinks, Vance Worley's struggles, Glen Perkins being a nerd again, the pros and cons of cursing, and updating the bar-buying plans. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Or click on the link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Kubel.jpg Let’s just say Jason Kubel’s return to Minnesota was not exactly met with wild enthusiasm from Twins fandom. Based on the previous season’s production -- a stomach-turning batting line of .216/.293/.317 (avg/obp/slg) with just five home runs in 290 plate appearances -- you could not fault anyone on the outside looking in for faulting the acquisition. Nevertheless Kubel and those close to him maintained that, at 31-years-old, the left-handed outfielder-slash-designated hitter was not over the hill. After all, I’m 33 and if I can still dress myself, cook my own meals and wipe my own bottom, surely Jason Kubel, a finely tuned athlete, could still hit a sphere thrown at him. When he departed the Twins, he may not have thrown kerosene on the club but in his exit interview he criticized the home ballpark, suggesting it was frustrating to hit in the left-handed power suppressing stadium. To make matters worse, Kubel groaned to the Phoenix media of his displeasure at having been a designated hitter -- suggesting it was “boring”. [Writer’s Note: Oh, really? You know what I find boring, Jason? Working at an office for nine hours a day.] On his return to his original organization, he insisted he was just stymied by a quad injury that lingered throughout the 2013 season, and not aging or anything affiliated with that. His quad was now healed. Oh, and that whole Target Field configuration thing? He was fine with that now too. Except all spring training, it didn’t seem fine. He went nine-for-fifty-two. A .196 average with two extra base hits and 17 strikeouts. Certainly some of those plate appearances were against real, honest-to-goodness, major league starters and others were against OH-MY-GAWD-THAT’S-JASON-KUBEL-type pitchers with a tight end’s number on their jersey. While the spring training numbers are meaningless, the performance just reduced the overall confidence in the decision to bring him back. Still, the Twins brass continued to insist they saw a noticeable improvement out of Kubel despite what the numbers said. He was squaring up balls better in the latter portion of the spring and taking better at-bats. That, and the lack of outfield-slash-bench options, made him a prime candidate to head north despite not being on the 40-man roster. Perhaps he needed to be above the Mason-Dixon line in order to hit because, once there, he put on a show. As the current American League batting average leader, Kubel has begun the season 13-for-29 (.448) with five extra base hits including one long blast at Target Field, a stadium which now can’t hold him. Kubel’s biggest improvement at the plate has been his connectivity. Last year his swing was holier than the Pope. In his contact rate heat map from ESPN/trumedia, you see that his swings were often empty -- he swung and missed on nearly 33% of his swings, well above the league average rate of 22%. This season, while still above average, he has reined in the errant swings to a more manageable rate (25%). Here is a side-by-side of his contact heat map with 2013 on the left and 2014 on the right (click to embiggen): Download attachment: Kubel_Contact.jpg What’s more is that when Kubel did make contact last year, it was not only weak, it was often late. His pull rate dropped considerably. Download attachment: Kubel_Spray.png Where this really stands out is against the fastball, a pitch Kubel used to flourish against. As I wrote at the time of the Kubel acquisition: “One of Kubel's biggest issues in 2013 was his inability to handle fastballs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 2012 Kubel hit .298/.368/.616 with 20 home runs and a whopping .309 well-hit average. That dropped considerably in 2013 when he finished the year hitting .261/.315/.400 with just 3 home runs and a well-hit average of .171 off of fastballs.” Yes, the production was bad against the cheese but it was not until an comparison of his (fastball) spray charts of last year and this year when facing that it is clear Kubel may be fully healed as he and the coaching staff insisted. Last season, he was unable to get around on the heat, often hitting lazy fly balls. This year he is once again yanking that pitch into and over the right field wall. Download attachment: Kubel_Spray_FB.png All standard small sample size warnings apply. However, Kubel’s early season production in addition to these indicators are reassuring that he is in good health. If he can remain in the lineup, the Twins could wind up with a solid bargain out of a minor league signing. There still is, of course, a lot of baseball left but, so far, the signs are good for Jason Kubel. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit_Pic.jpg On Saturday, May 4, Ryan Doumit, at .203, was not even hitting his weight. With a slugging percentage of .291 to boot, the Minnesota Twins’ switch-hitting catcher/DH was a few nights of binge eating hot wings from matching that number as well. As a regular guest of manager Ron Gardenhire’s vital fifth spot in the batting order, Doumit’s woes directly impacted the team’s offense. The offense had concluded April with just 92 runs scored – ahead of only the Chicago White Sox at 89. Last year, while providing crucial support in the heart of the order, the vast majority of his plate appearances came from the left side of the plate. His total numbers are most buoyed when he succeeds as a left-handed hitter. In 2012, he hit a respectable .288/.335/.488 and dropped 13 of his 18 home runs from the port side. That carried him through the year and earned him his contract extension. This year, however, Doumit has provided scant returns from either side of the plate. That is until the trip to Boston. Despite leaving Thursday night without a hit, Doumit did a great deal of damage in a two day span which included six hits in nine at-bats, two home runs and a double. Heading into Fenway, he was the owner of a sad .203 average and a middle infielder-esque .554 OPS. He had not hit one jack job all year. When the Twins left the city, Doumit’s average was 30 points higher, he had smacked two dingers and his OPS had 100 points added to it. What changed was his ability to square up on pitches…in the zone. [Pause while audience gasps.] Doumit entered the Boston series not necessarily chasing after pitches out of the zone at a higher rate than last year but he was making contact with pitches out of the zone. Opponents – fully aware of the fact that Doumit is a pull hitter – have attempted to defuse his power by feeding him pitches away, hoping he will try to pull them and thereby turn them over for weak grounders. Here’s a better visual reference to understand what was happening during the series in Cleveland: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1368168501_Doumit_2-0.JPG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_3-2_1.jpg As a pull hitter, it is not a surprise to see teams attacking him with pitches away. Additionally, they have increased the use of changeups on him (from 15% to 22%), in order to see if he would roll over on those offerings. These past few games, however, we have seen something different out of Doumit. Compare those points of contact to the ones he made while in Boston: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_HR1.JPG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_1B.JPG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Doumit_HR2.JPG Clearly, when a hitter makes contact with pitches in the zone, they are better able to square the ball off the barrel of the bat. Doumit’s poor pitch selection may point to why he has had an inordinate amount of grounders put into play this year (54%) compared to his career average (43%). Without the elevation, he has suffered a power outage. Heading into the Boston showdown, Doumit put the ball on the ground 35 times versus the 31 times he got underneath and lifted it. That changed significantly in Massachusetts when he went vertical eight times and bounced three times (save for Thursday night’s game). It is no surprise, then, that when we witness Doumit accumulate extra base hits, he is elevating the ball much better. Another curious aspect to Doumit’s inauspicious start has been his inability to make pitchers pay when he has been in favorable counts. In 2012, when he had been up on pitchers, he absolutely raked - posting a .327 average and a 1.026 OPS when ahead in the count. This year, that average is down to .154 with a OPS of .584. The results in these situations circle back to his expansion of the zone. Two of the three examples above came in hitter’s counts. Is this a corner-turn moment for Ryan Doumit? It is definitely plausible that the Twins are seeing the old Doumit return with the swing decisions exercised in Boston. This would be wildly beneficial as the team has suffered with his lack of production in the heart of the order. Keep an eye on his swing location through the upcoming home stand to see if this increased output continues. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]Download attachment: USATSI_7985742.jpg If you missed the All-Star festivities at Target Field over the past few days, perhaps the incentive of seeing one of baseball’s hottest teams will bring you back downtown at a more reasonable price. For most of their existence, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were a league laughingstock, destined to finish last in the AL East for eternity. Then they got new ownership, smartened up and figured out how to beat the financial powerhouses from the big cities up the Atlantic coast. Since 2007, they have won 84 or more games a year and have made the playoffs in four of the last six years. Everything they touched seemed to turn to gold: Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, James Loney, Matt Joyce, Kyle Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney -- all unexpected contributors who melded well with Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and David Price. These darlings continued to propel themselves towards the top of arguably baseball’s toughest division. As Jonah Keri called it in his seminal book, it was the extra 2% that elevated this organization. It was squeezing the maximum amount of talent out of struggling former top prospects or targeting unwanted free agents with unseen upside. It was developing prospects better and more efficiently to replace departing stars. It was moving soon-to-be departing stars for prospects. In short, it was an impressive top-to-bottom successful approach that turned the losers Devil Rays into the winning Rays. But 2014 has been another story. On June 11, the Rays held the worst record in baseball, harkening back to the Devil Ray era. While it may have seemed as if the Rays were immune to things like pitching injuries, 2014 has proven that their methods are not infallible. First it was starting pitcher Matt Moore, who after finishing 2013 at 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA. This year he lasted 10 innings before he needed Tommy John. Former Rookie of the Year pitcher Jeremy Hellickson has faltered so much that the team made the decision to send him down to Double-A to figure things out. This leaves the pressure on staff leader David Price -- whom the team is considering selling before the deadline per their modus operandi of trading prime value for heaps of prospect talent. On top of that, underperformance from key offensive contributors like last year’s Rookie of the Year Will Myers (injured as well) and Longoria has led to a downturn in runs scored. All this means that the Minnesota will will have several easy home victories coming out of the break, right? Not so fast. If the past thirty games are any indication, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Since bottoming out on June 11, the Rays have gone on to win 19 of the 30 games leading up to the break and no longer have MLB’s worst record. In comparison the Twins, despite a nice road trip surge before the All-Star Game, have finished 13-17 in that span. This is a pivotal series and homestand for the Twins as the team’s front office will likely make the assessment of where they stand at the upcoming trade deadline. Sweep the Rays and win a few more against Cleveland and Chicago and the brass may consider not trading away key players like Kurt Suzuki but rather contend for the final Wild Card spot. Get your seat: Baseball’s second-half is underway. [/hr] Unable to go to Target Field over the All-Star Weekend? Try getting there this weekend. On Friday, Kyle Gibson gets to redeem himself from his clunker at Tropicana. Saturday night’s game will showcase Tampa Bay’s All-Star pitcher, David Price. On Sunday afternoon Phil Hughes will attempt to continue his dominant first-half performance. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg About a year ago, the Minnesota Twins left Florida with a roster of 25, bound for the Twin Cities and, ultimately, the basement of the American League Central. Quite a bit of turnover has occurred from that collection of individuals – a whopping 12 from the 2012 Opening Day roster are no longer with the organization. Several of those players caught on elsewhere but have deemed unfit to place on another team’s 40-man roster. A few of those are out of major league baseball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Among the departed is last year’s Opening Day starter (Carl Pavano, who remains unsigned because of a life-threatening injury sustained while shoveling), the team’s closer (Matt Capps, who was recently cut from the Cleveland Indians but was retained on a minor league deal), two of the five bench bats (Sean Burroughs, unsigned, and Luke Hughes, who last played in Australia) and their situational lefty in the ‘pen (Matt Maloney, who may not pitch much due to recovering from Tommy John surgery). Beyond that group, Opening Day third baseman Danny Valencia failed to catch on with the Baltimore Orioles this spring and will start the season with their Triple-A affiliate. Reliever Jeff Gray did not merit enough of a role to even make the Chicago White Sox’s 40-man either and will be stashed with their International League team as well. Think about that for a second. These were supposed to be either key contributors or maneuverable pieces that turned into flotsam and now a vast majority of the other 25 teams would not bend over to pick up for nothing. Just one year removed from the Twins evaluators determining these guys were among their best 25 players. [How did they ever win 66? It’s a miracle. It’s a miracle.] With the finalization of the roster occurring over the next few days, the Twins staff will be attempting to move on from a group that went 6-16 through the season’s first month. The objective of the offseason was to create a rotation that can keep the Twins in the game long enough to remain competitive but this year, the staff is having troubles identifying their number one guy as the Opening Day starting pitcher still remains unknown (but is widely believed to be Worley). Outside of Jamey Carroll, the bench will consist of athletically talented yet unproven players in Eduardo Escobar, Wilkin Ramirez and Darin Mastroianni. Maloney and Gray will be replaced in the bullpen with Tyler Robertson and Ryan Pressly, two guys who have 25 major league innings between the pair. While the success of the team is dependent on the rotation, the starting lineup and defense, depth plays a large role as well. Is this group solid enough to finish April at or near .500, let alone for the duration of the season? Click here to view the article

How Phil Hughes Worked Of all starting pitchers who threw more than 100 innings last year, Phil Hughes led the group with a first-pitch strike rate of 71% -- one of only two pitchers who cracked the 70% mark (Arizona’s Patrick Corbin being the other). Naturally, Hughes continued that first-pitch strike tendency in his first start with the Minnesota Twins, turning the count over to 0-1 on 19 of the 24 batters he faced. Yesterday, sticking mainly with his heat in those situations (20 of 24), Hughes has been known to flip a get-me-over curveball on the first-pitch (21% of the time last year). However he twisted just one curve in yesterday’s game. While with the Yankees, when Hughes had his opponents on the ropes, he turned to his fastball -- a tendency he has displayed regularly. In two-strike situations against the White Sox, Hughes targeted the upper portion of the zone and above, getting five of his seven strikeouts on the high heat (as shown below). Download attachment: strike-zone (1).png Trevor Plouffe and the Other Direction No one will ever claim Trevor Plouffe’s bread-and-butter was taking a pitch the other way. After all, when Plouffe went on his home run binge a few years back, all those pitches were yanked into the left field seats. Yet, so far this year, Plouffe has six hits, four of which have been to RIGHT field. Here’s the interesting part: When Plouffe did go the other way last year, it mostly produced flies and pops. Those pitches were ones he was fooled on and fought off -- mostly sliders and fastballs down and away: Download attachment: strike-zone (2).png This season, Plouffe has DRIVEN pitches that have been up in the zone, shooting line drives to right field: Download attachment: strike-zone (3).png Plouffe having success going the other way? What’s next, cats sleeping with dogs? Anyone Heard of Chris Colabello? Starting the year 5-for-10 with three doubles (ok, one may have been a gift) and six RBIs is a strong way to jump out of the gate for Chris Colabello. This spring Colabello spoke about how he was approaching his at-bats and said he moved back off the plate in the minor leagues when teams began to attack him on the inner-half. Last year he didn’t see too many pitches on the inside portion of the plate so he inched up closer to stay in the same zip code as where pitchers were targeting him. Here is his pitch frequency chart from 2013: Download attachment: strike-zone (4).png Away, away and more away. This year the modus operandi has been the same: Download attachment: strike-zone (5).png What’s more is that the big right-hander has seen almost exclusively fastballs. It will be interesting to see how teams change their approach against Colabello as his success continues. Strike Three To Joe Mauer Download attachment: strike-zone (7).png Juuuuuust a bit outside. Download attachment: USATSI_7848991.jpg All charts and data provided by ESPN Stats & Info ~~~ Thanks to the Twins come back win over the White Sox on Thursday, you can get 50% off a Large of Extra Large pizza on Friday when you use the “TWINSWIN” promotion code at PapaJohns.com. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: image.jpg Per the Star Tribune's Joe Christensen, the Twins have announced that they will be sending Carl Pavano to the DL with a right anterior capsular strain in his throwing shoulder and Nick Blackburn will be activated from the DL. Pavano's obvious velocity decline throughout the season and the effect his shoulder had on his repertoire was a fairly strong indication that the right-hander would eventually have a date with the DL. Meanwhile Blackburn's rehab assignment has not been great - he's made two starts, thrown six innings and has six hits, five of which have been doubles, as well as a 2-to-4 K-to-BB ratio. A discussion on this has already been started. Please comment on it here. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Age: 23 (DOB: 09/23/1989) 2012 Stats (AA): 10-13, 149.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 151/78 K/ BB ETA: 2014 On paper, Trevor May has all the makings of an elite pitcher. At six-foot-five and 215 pounds, the 22-year-old right-hander has the stature of a legit workhorse. “Just his build, he is built just like a pitcher,” remarked Dusty Wathan, May’s manager at Reading (AA) last year. “If you were going to build a starting pitcher you would start with a body like that.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Beyond his physical presence, May fires low-to-mid 90s bullets and has a decent curveball, a developing changeup and has been working on a hard slider. Based on this pedigree, May would find himself a frequent guest in the top five when Baseball America would generate the Phillies’ annual Top 10 Prospects list. In fact, heading into the 2012 season, May was the baseball periodical’s choice for Philadelphia’s number one prospect. Sure, an assist goes to a Phillie farm system which had been harvested to allow May to ascend to the head of the class but the fact remained he got there by doing what he has done so well: strike fools out. Of course, along with the high totals of missed bats comes an unhealthy amount of missed strike zones as well. His mechanics reportedly have been inconsistent and off-balanced leading to the heartburn-inducing walk totals. After five years in the Phillies’ system, the organization may have soured on the idea that he would ever be able to make the adjustments necessary to reach his projected potential. Void of power-armed pitchers in their system, the Minnesota Twins are willing to gamble that they will see more of the former and less of the latter after they traded Ben Revere – one of their own Baseball America top five prospect graduates – to acquire May. The Good In 2011, May led the Florida State League (high-A) in strikeouts with 208 in 151 innings pitched. To put this into context, in the past 12 years only he and Tampa starter Matt Moore (208 in 2010) have registered more than 200 strikeouts in that league. May would follow that performance by leading the Eastern League too, a league in which he was two years younger than the average age. Based on those figures, it is hard to not dwell on the potential upside. What would be a good comparable? May envisions himself to be a Matt Cain-type of pitcher, as he told reporters at TwinsFest: After six consecutive seasons of 200+ innings and ERA+ of 126 in that time, certainly any team would take a Matt Cain duplicate. The Bad “All I’ve got to do is get his command and I think I’ll be OK,” May had self-evaluated. Will that be like Delmon Young saying: “All I’ve got to do is just stop swinging so much and I think I’ll be OK”? After making improvements to his control-based numbers in 2011, May’s walk totals trended the other way in 2012. So, in addition to leading the Eastern League in strikeouts, May also took home the dubious honor for most free passes issued (78). Last year the walks seemed to sneak up on him. After posting an 88-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of June, May sudden posted a 21-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the month of July, completely skewing his numbers. To make matters worse his home run total took a significant jump from his previous season (8 in 151.1 innings with Clearwater) to this past year (22 in 149.2 innings with Reading) as well. The Bottom Line May has the stuff to quickly ascend in the Twins system – especially given the relatively lack of talent ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, he has plenty of refining to do. While the Twins have been short on strikeout pitchers, as an organization they still thrive on precision and will likely want to see improvements out of May in that department. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler.] View full article

Before the spikes have even hit the turf at Hammonds Stadium, manager Ron Gardenhire has gone on the record as saying Denard Span is his 2012 center fielder. "[span's] going to lead off and be my center fielder. That’s my expectations. If somebody were to tell me that he’s not able to do that, then we’d have to ad lib. But if Denard comes in healthy, then he’s my center fielder, there’s no questions to me about that." Apparently, Ben Revere, who performed admirably in center in Span’s absence, was just keeping the position warm for the incumbent. There is probably little doubt that Gardenhire is basing some of his decision on the fact that Revere has a substandard arm. From the wisdom of the crowd, Fangraphs.com polled their readers to compile a collective scouting report on all players. Their contingency gave Revere’s Arm Strength a 4. This was by far the worst rating among all center fielders and a 90-point difference between him and the leader, Rick Ankiel. Also viewed critically was his release: the Fangraphs.com crowd said that his release rated as a 28, the third-lowest mark in that category too. It doesn’t take advanced metrics to recognize that Revere has a weak arm. It takes a bit more scouting acumen to see that he has a long arm throw which delays his release. Combine these two factors and it equates to extracurricular activity on the base paths. The question is what did Revere’s skill set cost the Twins and does it preclude him from being the starting center fielder? According to BillJamesOnline.net, the website which warehouses a vast majority of the Baseball Info Solution’s defensive data, they peg Revere’s arm as the worst among qualified center fielders in 2012 (minimum 700 innings) – adding data to the fan’s observations. He managed to accumulate 3 kills (throwing out runners) but allowed 63.9% of runners who had an opportunity to advance to the next base did so during his watch. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arms_(2012).jpg Here’s what we know about Revere: He’s fast. Because of this, we might also assume that he gets to many balls quickly, even those that fall to the ground. If he can get to more balls quicker than slower center fielders like, say, Rick Ankiel, one would think it would have some effect in preventing coaches from sending runners around the bases. Until we have other data available like how quickly an outfielder gets to a ball or how much velocity someone throws or how quick their release is, we are simply not going to have a comprehensive overview of how to judge someone’s arm. Still, looking at how many times opposing teams have had the opportunity to advance a base on him (89) versus how many times they decided to move up (56), you have to reach the conclusion that Revere’s lack of an arm has an adverse affect even if he is able to get to the ball quicker than the rest. Allowing runners to move up has been the crux of the argument for those wanting to keep Revere out of center. After all, in addition to patrolling the deepest part of the field, a center field has one of the longest throws to home plate among the three outfield positions and has a hefty chore when throwing to third base as well. In Revere’s case, opponents took note of his arm strength last year and used it to their advantage, wheeling around second-to-third or third-to-home. Understandably, if opposing teams recognize this opening, they will like walk through it at a high rate and put themselves in scoring position whenever possible. That idea certainly makes a manager cringe but, ultimately, it might be the wrong thing to focus on when deciding who should man center field. Moving Revere to left field definitely cuts down the distance on the throws, giving him an opportunity to cut off runners advancing to third or home. On the other side of the coin is the fact that Revere can cover ground like no other. Last year, Revere finished tied for third in Plus/Minus among center fielders with a plus-twenty (+20) mark. That means he was 20 plays better than the average center fielder which added up to 11 runs saved. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Range_(2012).jpg What this boils down to is that by the Plus/Minus system, it is much more valuable to prevent hits than it is to allow the opposing team the opportunity to move into scoring position. In terms of his arm, Revere has spent the offseason trying to improve in that area. Revere told 1500ESPN’s Judd Zulgad and Joe Anderson that he has been throwing “long toss with a football” to build strength. And while he may be able to add a few MPHs, his long arm action still needs to be pared down to shorten his release time. Additionally, there are no real precedence set to say how much a player’s arm can develop over an offseason so there is no way of telling how much Revere can improve his arm. To be sure, Denard Span is no slouch in center himself, especially in his 500-plus innings there last year. While he was not quite at Revere’s catch ‘em all caliber, he managed to save six runs which ranked him as the 11th best center fielder according to the P/M system. In the end, moving Revere out of center may play towards his lack of arm strength however it might wind up costing the Twins some outs when he is no longer patrolling the spacious center at Target Field. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lukebard3.jpg Pitching, it has been said, is a war of attrition. The acronym, TINSTAPP, was invented and has been thrown around a lot in reference to this phenomenon. It means, “There Is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect”. Think your club has just landed the next big arm in the draft? Nope, there goes his elbow. Or shoulder. Look no further than the Twins organization and pitcher’s draft in recent years. Alex Wimmers (2010, 21st overall), Kyle Gibson (2009, 22nd overall) and Matt Bashore (2009, 46th overall) have all had their routes to the majors delayed by one injury or another. In the case of Bashore, his constant medical attention got him released from the Twins. While Gibson and Wimmers could have healthy careers ahead of them, the misses in the past few years have left the farm system lacking top tiered talent ready to feed the majors. Surely after selecting five-tooled high school athlete Byron Buxton with the number two overall pick, the Twins’ War Room shifted its focus to re-arming the system. At the end of the first round, the Twins nabbed right-handers Jose Orlando Berrios (Papa Juan XXIII H.S., PR) and Luke Bard (Georgia Tech), two pitchers whom they said they had on their board ranked between 25 and 50. If you believe the collective wisdom gathered at Baseball America, you will find that the Twins placed higher value on both pitchers than the minds and sources at Baseball America did. According to Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings, Berrios came in at 49th overall (the Twins grabbed him at 32) while Bard was ranked 93rd overall (Twins selected him at 42). Of course, this does not necessarily mean they reached too far. If the Twins were targeting right-handed pitchers, not many remained on the board when their time was on the clock. At the same time, you could argue that, given the state of the entire system, the team should have gone with the best available player regardless of position. Nevertheless, pitching is one of the more significant needs and integral part of the team’s success. Minnesota’s VP of Player Personnel, Mike Radcliff, told FSN viewers that the attention in Day Two would revolve around uncovering more pitching. “Pitching is obviously a need in our organization; we believe it’s a need in every organization,” Radcliff told FSN studio hosts Anthony LaPanta and Roy Smalley. Starting at noon on Tuesday, the Twins will be on the clock with the third pick in the second round (#63 overall) and if the neither the Astros or the A’s are so inclined, Minnesota could wind up drafting one of its own: Mitch Brown (Baseball America’s 44th overall), a right-handed pitcher out of Rochester Century. Following that, the Twins have selections at 72 and 97, which could mean if they stick to addressing the pitching needs, they could wind up with one or two more of 25 remaining pitching prospects rated in the Top 100 by Baseball America. Needless to say, Tuesday will be a busy day as the organization attempts to combat attrition among the pitching ranks. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Eddie Rosario.jpg Reports from Puerto Rico suggest that Twins prospect Eddie Rosario has tested positive for a banned substance and could cost him a 50-game suspension in 2014. While the reports are still unconfirmed, according to an article in Sport LivePR from November 18, Rosario had informed his winter league team that he tested positive in a recent MLB drug test. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]According to Frankie Thon, the general manager of the team Rosario plays for, Rosario reportedly took some pills during his arm rehabilitation that were on the banned list. Thon also said that Rosario would be allowed to play in the offseason league due to a new agreement between the MLB and the winter leagues. Here is the explanation from the article through Google translation: Rosario spoke with the Puerto Rican website elnuevodia.com and said he was informed of the failed test after playing in the Arizona Fall League. The article also stated that his lawyers are currently appealing the suspension but Rosario believed there is little chance that the decision will be overturned. Rosario also said that the pills he took were they same kind he had taken in 2011 after he was struck in the face with a line drive while in Class A Beloit. The Twins outfield/second base prospect, who was recently named as Baseball Prospectus’ seventh rated prospect in the system, his coming off a solid year in which he hit .302/.350/.460 with 10 home runs and 32 doubles split between New Britain and Fort Myers. There is no official word on Rosario’s status from the Minnesota Twins. Click here to view the article

The book on Ben Revere is that he is a slap-hitting, bloop-knocking, fast-running, somersaulting offensive contributor. In his first full season at the major league level last year, he demonstrated outstanding contact. Of course, the catch was that his contact did not go anywhere. Revere would drive the ball into the ground and try to leg it out. In fact, among those with at least 400 plate appearances last year, his 68.5% ground ball rate led baseball. When he did put the ball in the air, the majority of the time it was a dying quail just past the arms of an outstretched infielder. Had Revere been on a slow-pitch softball team, none of his hits would have left the yard. From his hit distribution chart from TexasLeaguers.com (an aptly named website in this case) of his 2011 batted balls, you can see the Twins would need to haul in their fences a good 150 feet in order to turn Revere into a home run hitter: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Revere_2011.png The rookie season results were none too impressive for the outfielder. In 450 plate appearances, Revere posted a .267 average but matched that with a disappointing on-base percentage (.310) and non-existent slugging percentage (.309). Because of his lack of power, any extra base hits would have to come in the form of shooting the ball through the drawn in outfield alignment. While his time with the Twins in 2012 has been brief, it has felt like he is getting a bit more distance on the ball than he had a year ago. In Milwaukee he doubled on a ball that one-hopped the warning track – a veritable Thome-ian blast for Revere. Later, he flew out to center in which the center fielder had to gallop all the way to the dirt to field. Last night in Chicago, he sent White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza near the warning track to nab another fly ball. Perhaps this was all based on a small sample sized memory but it felt like Revere was sending more pitches deeper into the ballpark then he ever did last year. Turns out, I wasn't crazy. A cursory check at the website BaseballHeatMaps.com confirms that the sophomore is indeed getting more distance on his drives versus a year ago. In 2011, his fly balls and line drives averaged 243.47 feet off of his bat. This year, he’s added almost 30 feet, hitting his flies and liners 272.87 feet. Twins fans like to offer the Kirby Puckett comparison for Ben Revere’s potential. After all, Puckett, like Revere, began his career as a light-hitting speedster. And it was not until Puck’s third year in the majors that he hit 31 home runs after hitting a total of four in the previous two seasons. Eternal Twins optimists believe that maybe, just maybe, the 24-year-old Revere can somehow elevate his power the same way Puckett did at age-26. Now after watching him for almost two seasons worth of at bats, I do not see in anyway Revere adds legitimate clout like Puckett had. His swing is too direct to the ball and drives down at the pitch, leading to a high amount of grounders and line drives – which is perfectly suited to fit his speed. If Revere is not capable of developing any sort of real power, why would the fact that he’s driving his few fly balls and occasional liners a tad further noteworthy? Because Revere’s spray chart became so predictable – to the point where a manager in 2011 could draw a chalk line at the edge of where Revere’s batted balls would go – defending him became easier. Outfielders played in and cut down some of the bloop hits and were also positioned close enough to the infield to keep Twins base-runners from advancing beyond one base if Revere happened to hit cleanly. For obvious reasons, you do not want to encourage a ground ball hitter like Revere putting the ball in the air too frequently but, if he’s able to redirect the occasional pitch towards the deeper part of the park, opposing teams may rethink their defensive alignment against Revere and move their starting position further back. This may open up the portion of the field that he excelled at doinking pitches towards in 2011. In all, because he does not draw a high percentage of walks, Revere’s on-base numbers are strongly correlated with his ability to hit safely. In his minor league career, he routinely had batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) well above the .330 mark. At the major league level, his BABIP has decreased to .262 through 558 plate appearances. Now oh-for his past two games, dropping his 2012 line from a pre-game .270/.341/.432 to a replacement-level .244/.311/.390, Revere needs every inch of the field opened up to his advantage. Keeping the opposing outfielders honest may be a way to clear up some real estate and get a few more hits. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sh_twitter-icon.jpg Aaron and special guest co-hosts Parker Hageman and Joe Nelson talk about Trevor Plouffe's power explosion, Liam Hendriks' long-ball troubles, whether or not the Twins should be looking to trade Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and other veterans, why a filthy Twitter is a good thing, the development of power pitchers, and a phone call from a vacationing John Bonnes. Here are: the podcastthe rss feedthe podcast on itunes Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7864842.jpg Trevor Plouffe was essentially an afterthought this winter viewed as a third base placeholder until Miguel Sano takes the position from him. By the grace of the inelasticity of an elbow ligament, Plouffe's job security increased considerably. Sano's misfortune would be Plouffe's godsend. And, to his credit, the 27-year-old has made the most of this opportunity. After several seasons of mishandling the hot corner and minimal offensive contributions, Plouffe's game took giant leaps forward in 2014. Defensively he has looked improved and the magical defensive metrics reflect it. Offensively, there have been signs that he has matured as a player like using the entire field and laying off pitches out of the zone. Of course, Twins fans have gotten excited once before for the big breakout. In 2012, Plouffe gained attention by hitting roughly 750 home runs (estimate) in June and July. At that time, I documented his mechanical changes since his rookie year that allowed him to pull the ball with such might. By quieting his bat movement and aggressively deploying his hips, he fired red-seamed rockets into the outfield bleachers. Part of what made that stretch so successful for Plouffe was his ability to let it fly early in the count. According to ESPN/TruMedia, he was 14-for-26 and banged 7 of his 14 home runs in that situation. Of course, the baseball bombardment would not last as teams adjusted to his new approach and Plouffe could not reciprocate in kind. Following what felt like a lost year in 2013, Plouffe overhauled his strategy at the plate and refined his mechanics in order to become a more complete hitter. The first change was improving his base. Prior to this season, Plouffe demonstrated a wider stance with his weight distribution on his back leg. This season, the stance has been shortened and his distribution is more balanced. http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/5-07-2014/HlyjAq.gif In his swing, or more specifically his leg lift, we see a muted version of the front leg lift. Over the previous two seasons, Plouffe used a higher lift and shifted more of his weight onto his back leg before shifting forward. Not only that but he also This creates a situation with plenty power but also overcommitting to fastballs and the selling out on the pull-side. Now, with his balanced approach, he is able to allow the ball to travel deeper while staying back. This gives him the ability to drive the ball hard to all fields with impressive results -- he is hitting a robust .333 when driving the ball to right field and .357 up-the-middle. http://i.imgur.com/lkBGD89.gif2012 http://i.imgur.com/sWmO59U.gif2013 http://i.imgur.com/dbacd8u.gif2014 Plouffe explained this change in his approach to 1 500ESPN.com’s Derek Wetmore at the end of April by saying: Will this approach be sustainable? Plouffe has thrived this year by smacking pitches that have remained up in the zone for hits. In fact, his .340 average on pitches in the upper-half is 100 points better than the average. It is clear that this trend has been spotted by opposing teams when you consider how Plouffe has been pitched as of late and his performance in that time (.132/.175/.211 since May 1). Download attachment: Plouffe.jpg Now, as you can see from the ESPN heat map, teams are throwing him down-and-away. Over his career he’s hit just .128 on pitches in that area and is a miserable 0-for-17 this year when putting those balls into play. Perhaps as a result of this new attack, Plouffe has also started to stray from his newfound approach of swinging at just pitches in the zone. Prior to May, Plouffe chased after 15.5% of pitches out of the zone, says ESPN/TruMedia. This month he’s expanded this region and offered at 26.7% of all out-of-zone pitches. Unless Plouffe can adjust to that plan of attack -- or capitalize on mistakes -- he is almost certain to see his numbers fall. That being said, Plouffe’s maturity and willingness to make these changes bodes well for his ability respond. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: td-dc-march23.jpg Update: We'll give away 3 pairs of tickets for an event where you can meet Paul Molitor! Each pair is worth $100! See below.... Clear your schedule Saturday afternoon because the Minnesota Twins are on the tee-vee and Twins Daily is throwing a Viewing Party. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Snow may still be piling on but we can get away from it all, if only for a few hours this weekend. Starting at 11:45 on Saturday, March 23rd, come down to the newly opened 612Brew in Northeast Minneapolis and join the Twins Daily community for some baseball, brew and giveaways. While the Twins take on the Tampa Bay Rays live on Fox Sports North, we will be offering various prizes including tickets to the Twins game and DiamondCentric tee shirts. Located at the corner of Broadway and Central Avenues, 612Brew’s taproom features some unique and flavorful craft beer including the Six (an American Pale Ale), the Bitter Cold Winter IPA (a single-hop IPA) and the Rated R (a West Coast IPA meets Midwest Rye). Food will be provided on-site by the Motley Crew Heavy Metal food truck, with such mouthwatering items as the Bacon Brat Burger (topped with a mound of sauerkraut and melted cheese) and the Funky Philly cheesesteak sammich. See you Saturday. Update: In addition, we'll have three pairs of tickets to give away for a Twins Season Kickoff Party on Wednesday, April 10th. The party will benefit Tix for Tots and feature Paul Molitor, Mark Rosen, Twins EVP Laura Day and some blogger named Bonnes. Plus appetizers and a free wine-tasting, all at the Metropolitan Club in Target Field. Tickets are $50 apiece, so each of these pairs is worth $100.You can register for this event and learn more by clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

Unquestionably, Trevor Plouffe has been one of the hottest hitters in the month of June, smacking eight home runs and five in the past six games. Needless to say, it took plenty of work and patience on both the part of Plouffe and the Minnesota Twins to coax this power out. If you review his minor league numbers, he was scarcely a player one would describe as being blessed with raw power. After all, he hit 49 home runs in his first 680 games in the minors, hardly a fountain of clout. Nevertheless, with a steady tinkering of his mechanics and approach, the Twins were able to tap into a substantial, if unexpected, power source. Over the past three seasons, Plouffe has made the transition from a slasher to an unbelievably potent bat. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In 2010, Plouffe maintained a somewhat crouched, closed stance. He held his hands high and, as you can see in the video clip, he had plenty of pre-swing bat movement. This caused him to have to move his hands a great distance from close to his head all the way back to the load position. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_F.jpg However, in 2011, as you can see in the front view image below, Plouffe opened up his stance, keeping his front foot aim towards the shortstop side of the diamond, rather than at the second base side. This season, he made two important changes that aided him in hitting a career-high 26 home runs split between Rochester and Minnesota. The first was keeping his bat still before the pitch. The second was incorporating a more violent leg kick, helping to generate power. In 2010 Plouffe hit what was then a career best of 15 home runs in 445 plate appearances at Rochester. In 2011 it took him only 220 plate appearances to reach that mark proving he was progressing in the power department. A strong kid, Plouffe’s mechanical adjustments resulted in a batted ball type shift from being a ground ball hitter to one who could elevate pitches. Prior to 2011, his ground ball rate was consistently between 42% and 50% in the minors. Afterwards, that ground ball rate dropped significantly to 31% while at Rochester in 2011. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.gif http://apps.startrib...ffe_2011_SV.jpg http://apps.startrib...uffe_2011_F.jpg Fast forward to the current season, Plouffe started the year off extremely slow, hitting just .133 with two home runs in his first 73 plate appearances. For the most part, his mechanics were very much the same as his 2011 season – one which produced both a glutton and famine of production. He still had the opened stance, the tall starting position and aggressive leg kick but now he was getting his bat position off of his body. As you can see from the front view below, Plouffe moved his hands away from his body a bit and, as has been repeated by the FSN analysts, Ron Coomer and Roy Smalley, Joe Vavra was working on getting him to keep his head still during his swing to improve his contact rate. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.gif http://apps.startrib...fe_2012_SV1.jpg http://apps.startrib...ffe_2012_F1.jpg In the season’s first two months, Plouffe was hitting a high percentage of fly balls, but did not quite get the desired distance. As I mentioned a little over a week ago, that began to change rapidly. This month Plouffe has turned into a manimal, tearing the cover off the ball and obliterating opponent’s fastballs. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value data, Plouffe has hit the fastball 5.2 runs above average in June alone – only the Angels’ Mike Trout at 7.8 runs above average has had a better month against the heat. This has led to eight home runs over 46 plate appearances and another four doubles to boot. There are a few minor alterations Plouffe has made since May 28 that has led to this unbridled and unadulterated display of power. The first is getting his back elbow up, which you can see in both the side and front view images. The second, and probably more important addition, is that he is placing his weight more on his back leg and giving him a slightly lowered and wider stance. In the video clip you will see that, in action, he keeps his weight back during his leg kick and we see his hip rotation is centered well almost directly above his back leg. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.gif http://apps.startrib...fe_2012_SV2.jpg http://apps.startrib...ffe_2012_F2.jpg What helps too is Plouffe’s ability to make contact out in front and pull the ball. As I have previously discussed in regards to Josh Willingham Target Field can been inviting to those who have mastered the art of pulling the ball with authority. Now you can add Plouffe to that list. In terms of isolated slugging, a metric that subtracts batting average from slugging percentage to reveal just the power contributions, Plouffe has posted a .692 isolated slugging percentage when pulling the ball, second only behind Chicago’s Adam Dunn (.828). Will Plouffe’s power continue? Despite the improvement in his swing, a lot of whether he continues to pop has to do with his contact rates, pitch recognition and ability to adjust. A year ago, we saw some streaky power binges but opponents were able to get him to expand the zone (32% out-of-zone swing rate versus 31% league average) while his in-zone contact was firmly below average (83% in-zone contact versus 88% league average), which may be attributed to the aforementioned head movement that Vavra was attempting to correct. So far this year Plouffe has been noticeably better in both departments. He has greatly reduced his tendency to chase after pitches (26% out-of-zone swing rate versus 30% league average) and has an above average contact rate with in-zone pitches (89% in-zone contact versus 87% league average). Part of the improvement in his contact rate, along with the potential head stabilization, is his ability to handle sliders better. In 2011, Plouffe was unable to do much against sliders, particularly from right-handed pitchers. PitchF/X data suggests he swung at 51.6% of all sliders thrown his direction that year and, all said, he was 1.4 runs below average when facing sliders. Plouffe’s inability to allow a slider to pass by likely was the reason behind his ground ball rate spiking to 40%. This year, however, he has managed to lay off more often than not when a pitcher spins one his direction. PitchF/X data says he’s swinging just 36% of the time on sliders. What’s more is that when he does put a swing on a slider, he has been doing damage to the tune of 1.9 runs above average. Last, as mentioned above, Plouffe has been decimating fastballs, particularly on the inner-half of the zone. These facts will not likely escape advanced scouts for upcoming opponents. Soon enough, the fastball well will dry up or teams will begin to stay away from the inside part of the plate. Plouffe will need to adjust to whatever the new plan of attack is and continue to punish any mistakes thrown his way. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Arica.jpg Figuring hitters out, a baseball lifer told me recently, is like trying to untangle a giant knot. At first you just try to attack it in the easiest manner possible. If that does not work, you pick another course. And then another and another. You keep trying different things until something gives and you attack that spot until the knot becomes an unraveled mess of string with a sub-.200 batting average and a ticket back to Triple-A. That, in short, is how teams approach players who are new to the league. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Pitchers go right after hitters until the method proves fruitless. Then they start pitching away. Or they pitch up. They change speeds. Or they feed them breaking balls until they go cross-eyed. Meanwhile, the good hitters – the Joe Mauers of the world – adjust with the pitcher. They take that pitch on the outer-half to the opposite field. They lay off the high ones. They wait on the breaking ball. Those less experienced may fall right into the game plan of the other team. Take Danny Valencia and Brian Dozier as examples. Both these players enjoyed immediate success but fell apart as teams began to exploit their tendencies to pull everything. Valencia has hit .234/.274/.365 since that exciting rookie season while Dozier is a career .226/.265/.319 hitter in almost 500 plate appearances. Chris Parmelee enjoyed his month of September back in 2011 but has been a pile of yarn in the batters’ box since, hitting just .218/.284/.351. This brings me to the latest hot-hitting young Twin, Oswaldo Arcia. Arcia began the month of May with an 8-game hitting streak. Within that stretch, he hit .438 with four doubles, a triple and a home run. That performance, spread across three series, undoubtedly had advanced scouts saying “uh-oh, we’ve got to deal with this.” In a USA Today article, Bob Johnson, an advanced scout for the Braves, who just finished sweeping the Twins, explained a bit about his technique: "I'm looking for tendencies," he explains. "If a guy sets his hands at a different position on different counts. I want to know his stance. Does he close up? Is he an open-style hitter? Does he dive into the pitch? … I first check his hands, then his feet. Then I check where his head goes on certain pitches." {snip} Back at the hotel, he writes up reports on the game and then emails them to the team's video coordinator, who compiles the various streams of research. The team's manager and staff will ultimately share the information with the players to help them prepare for future match-ups. What advanced scouts saw with Arcia is a hitter who has a great ability to keep his hands inside his swing. He generates plenty of his power that way. He is a hitter who has no trouble going to all fields. In fact, he has hit the ball the opposite way (37% of balls in play) more than he has pulled it (31%). Teams realize that they need to get him to move his hands away from his body which requires avoiding pitching him middle-in. The assumption may be that he is seeing fewer fastballs but the reality is he is seeing roughly the same percentage of fastballs, just fewer of those for strikes. Take a look at this animation of his swing on fastballs, from the beginning of his major league season to when his hitting streak ended, compared to his past 10 games. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1369375354_Arcia_Fastballs.gif Notice the cluster of fastballs near the heart of the plate in the first series and the lack of anything there in the second series. The number of in-zone pitches Arcia has seen has shrunk significantly (his in-zone pitch percentage is 46%, well below the near 50% mark and has been at 39% the past two weeks). Arcia, so far, has not been the type of hitter who takes walks. He is a power hitter who is ready to swing (his 54% swing rate is also well above the MLB average of 46%). During the Atlanta series, Ron Gardenhire held Arcia out of the lineup, saying that the rookie was “misfiring” at the plate. True, the above numbers indicate that he is pressing hard at the plate with little to show in the past few weeks. His ninth inning pinch hitting appearance, resulting in a foul out to end the game, was a prime example of why he is mired in this offensive quagmire. On a 1-0 pitch, Arcia was sitting dead-red on a fastball. While the Braves gave him one, it was on the outer-half, running away and the contact resulted in an easy third out for Justin Upton in foul territory. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arcia3.PNG In that situation, under those conditions, you can expect that the manager wants his player to be teeing up on a better pitch - particularly when ahead in the count. Prior to Thursday’s game against the Tigers, Gardenhire informed the media that his starting lineup would not include Arcia for the fourth consecutive game. When pressed for an explanation, the manager said that he wanted to play the matchups and that Ryan Doumit was 4-for-10 off the Tigers’ starting pitcher, Rick Porcello. This reasoning, based on absurdly small sample size, is likely the cover for the manager and coaches wanting Arcia to slow down and recognize how pitchers are approaching him. He has fallen into a pattern of trying to force everything. Their advice could be don’t swing so much, don’t expand the zone, and let the game come to you. Based on his tools, Arcia has a bright future. In order to realize this potential he needs to refrain from chasing everything that moves. His mechanics are solid and his strength will ensure that he will blister pitches that come into his swing path. As major league pitchers continue to pick at his weakness, he needs to adjust with them. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Diamond.jpg As plain as the nose on your face, the Twins could clearly see that a sizeable portion of their 2013 troubles was a direct result of the team’s rotation. “Not missing bats and big impact” could have been a mantra of the starting five, or at least a bestselling bumper sticker for a select number of the fan base, which thrives on the pessimism. The evidence of the staff’s lack of strikeouts is clear to anyone who does a cursory search of Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference. However, one telling stat that does not show up on the regular sites is the “well-hit average” which ESPNtrumedia carries. This statistic measures how well-struck a ball was and is an indication of whether a pitcher is able to keep hitters from shooting rockets all over the field. In 2013, major league pitchers carried a well-hit average of .164 while the league’s best staff in this category, the Pittsburgh Pirates, maintained a season low of .141. On the opposite end of the spectrum was the Minnesota Twins, who carried a girthy .194 well-hit average. Download attachment: Well_Hit_Avg.PNG One reason behind this obliteration could involve the staff’s approach. It should come as no surprise to those who watched any of the Twins pitchers last year and kept an eye on the radar gun readings that the speed numbers did not impress anyone. The Twins starters averaged 90 on their fastball. Just a tick below them was the Atlanta Braves’ staff that averaged 89.9 with the cheese. Yet, unlike the Twins, the Braves’ staff held a pristine .150 well-hit average – the fifth-best in the game last year. So the pitching woes cannot be entirely explained simply by lack of velocity – but it could possibly be explained by the lack of velocity in critical locations. Graham Goldbeck, a data analyst from Sportsvision (the company that runs the F/X systems – Pitch, Hit and Field), has culled through the 600,000-odd ball-in-play results captured by the Hit F/X technology and shared some of his findings with the SABR conference this past March. What Goldbeck found was that the vast majority of home run contact is produced out in front of the plate. Intuitively, Goldbeck’s findings found that fastball contact occurs later in the zone while off-speed contact happens further in front. Strategically, pitchers typically locate their off-speed and breaking balls most often on the lower-half or outside of the strike zone to avoid the type of contact that would result in souvenirs (save for the occasional get-me-over curves). Be it because they were attempting to pump strikes or simply because they failed to spot their secondary offerings (as seemed the case with Scott Diamond and Vance Worley) the Minnesota Twins allowed a league-high .461 slugging percentage on “soft” pitches (those that average 81-mph). Below is the velocity heat map for the entire major leagues, the well-hit average-leading Pittsburgh Pirates and, finally, the Twins, with the worst well-hit average in the game. Download attachment: MLB_SP_Zone.PNG (MLB) Download attachment: Pirates_SP_Zone.PNG (Pittsburgh Pirates) Download attachment: Twins_SP_Zone.PNG (Minnesota Twins) What you see with the Twins’ velocity heat map is that a high percentage of the “slow” offerings (curves, changes, etc as indicated by the green coloring), are falling in the middle of the zone. This, when considered in conjunction with Goldbeck’s findings, is some dangerous living. One metric that examines, at a glance, how frequently a pitcher is in or out of the zone with a pitch is ESPNtrumedia’s “Paint” statistic. Basically, paint will measure the shortest distance in inches from a pitch to the edge of the strike zone (in any direction). On average, MLB pitchers keep their “slow” offerings approximately one inch outside of the zone. Pittsburgh’s staff – led by breaking ball enthusiasts in AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano – threw their soft pitches an inch-and-a-half away from the zone (-1.6). Meanwhile the Twins starters threw their soft offerings less than an inch away (-0.9). This means that a significant portion of these pitches were located in a very hittable region. As the Twins attempt to fix the rotation this winter, a key component of that could be identifying talent which has different approach than last year’s staff had. Namely, pitchers able to keep their “soft” pitches out of the middle of the zone. Those available include the likes of Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir – both of whom attack the strike zone with their fastball and supplement it with below-the-zone breaking pitches. On the other hand, pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes tend to allow their “soft” offerings to hang up in the zone, leading to above-average well-hit averages in 2013. Click here to view the article

La Velle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. Download attachment: TerryDoyle.jpg For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg After sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to Rochester, many fans began to think that Brian Dozier may have done enough this spring to entice the powers that be to include him on the major league roster. On Tuesday, manager Ron Gardenhire squelched that notion. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s tweet which paraphrased Gardenhire’s comments on the situation, the Twins will not be bringing Dozier northward but rather sending him to Rochester to start the season. The Twins’ manager added that the team would not hesitate to summon Dozier if anything should happen to either Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla. This would allow for Dozier to be a starter rather than a utility player for the parent club. Dozier, 24, made offensive progress in 2011 after his promotion to Double-A New Britain. There, he worked with hitting coach Tom Brunansky to develop more power. Said Dozier of the former Twins’ instructions: "When I got to Double-A, my swing kind of changed,'' Dozier said. "I started to develop into my swing. I worked with Tom Brunansky and it really took off for me. I developed more power and was driving balls more than I was used to.'' Unfortunately, no video exists of Dozier’s post-Double A swing so we cannot provide a full breakdown of his mechanics. What we can see statistically is that whatever changes that were made, it resulted in much improved power numbers although at the small expense of his on-base percentage and batting average. While in High-A Fort Myers, Dozier hit a solid .322/.417/.472. Once he was moved to New Britain, he hit a very good .318/.376/.502. While the walk rate dropped (from 12.4% to 8.0%) and the strike out rate grew (from 9.2% to 13.1%) his power output increased substantially (his isolated power swelled from .150 to .184). This might be something that you would expect from working under Brunansky’s tutelage as Bruno himself had a lot of all-or-nothing type swing in him (leading to a low-batting average/on-base percentage and high-slugging combination over his career). Of course, that is not to say that Dozier is following in Brunansky’s footprints, after all, the change in competition level may have as much to do with the shift in his peripheral numbers as anything. However, the change in the way the ball was coming off his bat may be the biggest outcome of the swing modification. Pre-New Britain, Dozier was knocking the ball into the ground closer to the 50% mark over his career. For a speedy middle infielder, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Since his time in New Britain, that ground ball rate has dropped to below-40%, meaning he is elevating the ball far more often than usual and, hence, the sudden increase in home runs (seven in 351 plate appearances) and extra base hits. So whatever adjustments were made, so far, it has paid off. With Brunansky moved to Rochester to handle the team’s most ready minor league prospects, sending Dozier back to work with the man who helped improve his swing and continue to put the final touches on it is not the worst outcome. Click here to view the article

On April 29th, while catching Joe Mauer took a Brayan Pena sharp foul ball off the inside part of his left knee. Up to that point, the seemingly healthy Mauer was hitting a robust .325/.419/.438. He had hit a home run, triple and four doubles in those 93 plate appearances. Since then, he has gone to hitting safely in just four of his last 31 at-bats (.129), including a gentle double and a ground ball that Mariners shortstop Brendan Ryan likely should have converted. Now, many wonks will argue comparing 93 plate appearances to the outcome of another 36 plate appearances is the ultimate exercise in small sample size analysis. Additionally, the fact that he has faced a regiment of Jered Weaver (twice) and Felix Hernandez may lend credence to the notion that he is just slumping in May. However, because this performance drop-off started with the foul ball incident, it is hard to ignore the influence a shot to a load bearing limb may have on his swing. You have to wonder if Mauer is currently hurting more than he wants everyone to believe. At the start of the season, Mauer was a line drive machine. In the season’s first month, nearly 30% of all balls off of his bat were hit on a line. So far this month, he has managed to hit just one line drive in 36 plate appearances since absorbing the Pena foul ball. The majority of his balls in play have been grounders. Download attachment: Mauer_Batted Balls.jpg Without the assistance of the high percentage of line drives and the huge increase in ground balls, it is easy to see why Mauer’s numbers have taken a tumble. Visually, through the monthly spray charts found at TexasLeaguers.com, we find that he has struggled to pull the ball in May as effectively as he did in April: Download attachment: Mauer_April2.jpg Download attachment: Mauer_May2.jpg Mauer’s left knee, the one Pena’s foul ball ricocheted off of, has been a source of pain for him in the past. In 2010, he had arthroscopic surgery after tissue inflammation experienced throughout the season. Last year, his bi-lateral leg weakness was concocted from what Mauer described as leg soreness from not properly working out his lower half following the 2010 arthroscopic surgery. If it was indeed re-aggravated, the left knee – the one he would pivot and drive off of during his swing – would keep him from pulling the ball with authority. While the shot to the knee may be downplayed in the media, it would seem that the Twins have taken precautionary measures that would suggest that they are a bit more concerned about him. This month, manager Ron Gardenhire clearly recognized the need to alleviate the pressure on Mauer’s knees as since sitting out post-foul tip he has played nine games and only two behind the plate. Meanwhile, the front office, perhaps concerned over his resiliency, recalled Drew Butera from Rochester to serve as the third catcher in spite of a thin bench. To Mauer’s credit, the majority of the ribbing last year appeared to be focused on his inability to work his way into the lineup and that his “bi-lateral” injuries were simply an excuse to avoid playing for a terrible team. This season, he’s played 30 of the 31 total contests, perhaps proving to his critics that he can play through the pain. Unfortunately, if he is in pain stemming from the foul ball, his performance has obviously taken a downturn. Understandably, with Justin Morneau unable to play, the Twins are counting on their $23 Million Dollar Man to get out there and play. At the same time, if the team wants to ensure that he is available throughout the duration of the season, they may need to sit him a little more regularly than they have been doing up to this point. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: francisco-liriano-apjpg-29e451cf29aa9cc6.jpg Francisco Liriano’s first six starts of the season were nothing short of disappointing. With plenty of raw talent, the Twins potential rotation leader failed miserably, throwing 26.2 innings, allowed 37 hits (six of which were home runs), posted a terrible 21-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio and failed to pitch into to the sixth inning in all but one start. In that time, Liriano was drastically out of whack mechanically and the coaching staff had even tried to recreate his spring training success by getting him to throw his four-seam fastball more than his two-seamer which he struggled to command. The changes did not keep him from derailing and a shift to the bullpen would be required. After several outings in the ‘pen, injuries and perhaps a need to inflate his trade value necessitated his return to the rotation. Even though the team’s record in those four starts may not reflect it (1-3), Liriano has been a better pitcher during this more recent stretch. He’s worked 23.2 innings (completing six innings in all but one start in which he fell one out shy of the mark) and has allowed just 12 hits to go along with a much improved 29-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. One of the main reasons for this subtle rejuvenation is that he has increased his slider usage. In the past three years, Liriano has had one of the game’s best sliders. According to Fangraphs.com, since 2010 Liriano’s slider has been “worth” 23.6 runs above average, making it the eighth most valuable slider in that time. However, he was encouraged to throw his two-seam fastball more often in attempts to get more quick outs – a ground ball here and there – to avoid getting into deeper counts like most strikeout pitchers do. So, during his first stint in the rotation this year (April 1 – May 7), Liriano favored the two-seam fastball, throwing it 52% of the time and, of those, threw 56% for strikes – a good not great rate. Because of favoring his two-seamer, he threw his slider just 26% of the time in those six starts. In his second stint in the rotation (May 30 – Present), Liriano has leaned more on the biting slider, mixing it in now at 38% of the time. [TABLE=align: center] [TD=colspan: 4]Francisco Liriano – Slider Usage (2012)[/TD] [/TD][TD]Two-Seam Fastball Slider Batting Average April 1 – May 7 52% 26% .346 May 30 – June 15 38% 38% .143 [/TABLE] What’s more is that not only is Liriano using the breaking ball more frequently across the board he is also using it quite a bit to start off each batter in efforts to get ahead of opponents. One of Liriano’s shortcomings these past two years has been his inability to get ahead of hitters. In fact, of starters who have thrown a minimum of 150 innings since 2011, Liriano’s 51% first-pitch strike rate was the lowest in baseball. Not surprisingly, Liriano mainly threw his two-seam fastball on the first pitch and 62% of the time in his first six starts. Meanwhile, in his second go round, he has increased the amount of slider’s he has thrown (from 22% to 36%) and reduced the amount of two-seamers (from 62% to 38%). Because his slider has a much higher strike rate than his fastball, Liriano has found himself ahead in the count more in these last four starts. The change in his pitch distribution has led not only to more strikes but also more ground balls. Liriano’s slider is a ground ball manufacturer and in his first six starts, he exercised a GB/FB split of 0.69, meaning he was inducing more fly balls than grounders (as seen in his six home runs allowed in that time). More recently, that batted ball ratio has increased to 1.00 GB/FB which means the amount of grounders has grown (and he has allowed just one home run in those four starts). What we are likely seeing is Liriano upping his value from absolute zero to something that could bring the Twins a decent prospect in return if he continues this performance and the Twins decide to move him. Watch for Liriano to throw more slide pieces in tonight’s start again Pittsburgh. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Willingham2.jpg Technology is amazing, isn’t it? Sure, we’re missing the flying cars, moon colonies and hover boards but the fact that we all basically carry around personal computers/television sets that can make phone calls in our pocket is pretty mind-blowing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Baseball, while it may seem archaic with the bats made from trees and game play which doesn’t involve a time clock, is actually progressive and embraces new technologies off the field. Not long ago, the Pitch F/X cameras installed at all stadiums opened up a whole new world of data to the general public. This new insight has provided teems of information on pitchers, hitters, umpires and, most recently, catchers. Suddenly, we know whose curveball gets the most swing-and-misses (AJ Burnett at 44.1%), whose fastball generates the most groundballs (Scott Diamond at 58%), and whose catcher can coax the most strikes on pitches just out of the zone (Jose Molina, 13%). For front offices, this seems like really important stuff, particularly when evaluating free agent talent. But baseball does not want to stop there. MLB has been working on going beyond just the batter-pitcher matchups by exploring the world of contact (Hit F/X) and defense (Field F/X). Once available, the latter will be able tell us who gets the best jumps, who positions themselves the best and who covers the most ground. The former, Hit F/X, will be able to provide details on what kind of contact is necessary for a towering home run, a line drive, an opposite field double, and so on. At the SABR Analytics Convention in Phoenix a week ago, Baseball America dispatched Matt Eddy to cover the event which discusses these forthcoming technologies. While there, Eddy was treated to a presentation from Graham Goldbeck, a data analyst from Sportsvision – the creator of the F/X systems. Goldbeck released some new information farmed out from the nearly 600,000 ball-in-play situations captured by their Hit F/X system. What Hit F/X does is tracks the batter’s contact point, batted ball speed, the horizontal spray angle (like a spray chart) and the vertical launch angle. From this, Goldbeck found that hitters who tend to make contact out in front of the plate have a greater tendency to hit from home run power than those who make contact deeper in the zone: This is analytical evidence of something that probably already knew from observation of two members of the Minnesota Twins who are on opposite ends of the spectrum: Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer. When it comes to Willingham, we knew one thing: He pulls the living fire out of the ball. Last year, his .487 isolated slugging percentage when pulling wash tied for sixth-highest in baseball. (Think if he had a more hitter-friendly home ballpark.) Why is he so good at pulling the ball? That is because he makes outstanding contact out in front of the plate, much like Goldbeck’s research suggests. Take a look at his connection point in this home run: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1363367962_Willingham.PNG Now, compare Willingham’s contact point to Mauer’s, who just sliced his patented left-field double. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer.PNG Mauer has been one of the game’s foremost connoisseur of going the other way. Part of the reason behind that is that he can let the ball travel much deeper into the zone than Willingham has ever allowed. As such, the natural conclusion is that he would have a much harder time of reaching the same home run totals as Willingham because his swing is not conducive to generating the kind of power. Dingers aside, Mauer’s approach affords him superior contact rate over Willingham’s approach. Another thing that Goldbeck’s research said about Willingham is that he has one of the most consistent contact points. This means that he is susceptible to other pitch types or various locations away from his standard impact zone. As such, we see that he had a well-below contact rate average (75.9% versus 79% league average) in 2012 compared to Mauer who was well above that mark (87.8%). Additionally, although it is possible that Mauer may suddenly start hitting the ball out in front and launching dingers into the newly minted party deck in right field, the study suggests that the likelihood of this happening is low. It is rare for hitters to change their stripes: We’ve reached an age where we have a greater understanding of the game than ever before. We confirm why Josh Willingham can decimate Target Field while many other hitters cannot. We know that while everyone may wish for Mauer to take that step forward and hit home runs by the bushel, we are learning from the technology that it just simply may not be possible – that is, unless the left field fence is moved in 50 feet or so. Technology is amazing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: KohlStewart_crop_650 (1).jpg Since 2010 the Minnesota Twins starting rotation has had an average fastball velocity of 90 miles per hour, which has been the lowest in the American League. In that time, they have struck out the lowest percentage of hitters (14.8%), had the third-highest ERA (4.76) and second-highest contact rate (83.6%). In an effort to improve in these areas the Twins selected Kohl Stewart, a fireballer out of a Houston prep school whose skill set is projected to eventually help the rotation out of the lowly doldrums. Armed with a mid-90s fastball that touches 97, Stewart, a Texas A&M recruited quarterback, has mowed down Texas hitters for several years and has jumped up on scouts’ radars of late. With a decent frame to grow into, the 18-year-old right-hander grabbed the Twins’ attention enough to make him their fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft. Stewart knows that his mid-90s fastball is the centerpiece of his burgeoning repertoire. All pitchers know that they need to key everything off their fastballs. Some have better fastballs than others; Stewart is not the others. His fastball reaches 97 miles per hour – a velocity only a few arms are ever blessed with attaining. For the Twins, it's just Glen Perkins who is capable of reaching that speed. “There are days where you’re not going to have that pitch, but my fastball is a very comfortable pitch for me,” Stewart told reporters on his post-draft conference call. “I like to use both sides of the plate and work off my fastball. My slider is probably my second best pitch, with my curveball and changeup. I’m really comfortable throwing any pitch at any count.” Of course, velocity means nothing without movement or location but Stewart is working on that. Although Stewart says he feels comfortable throwing his fastball regularly and in any situation, it is the success of his secondary pitches that will help him become a starter in the major leagues. After all, two-pitch pitchers wind up in the bullpen – not the intended destination of a fourth overall selection. A starter needs three or more offerings in order to thrive. Currently, Stewart is a currently a two pitch pitcher. He has his plus-plus fastball and his plus-slider but he has also worked on developing a slower curve as well as a change-up. He has also tinkered with a sinker, something that keeps right-handers off-balanced. “My slider is more effective right now, just ‘cause I started throwing my curveball just this year. My changeup has definitely come around. I’ve thrown that a lot more in the last year. And, I even have a little bit of a sinker just to give me something else to go hard in on righties. The sinker has kind of come to fruition, just in the last couple of weeks -- just throwing bullpens and messing around with some things.” Overall, Stewart has clean and effortless mechanics. He does not possess any herky-jerky movement or any red flags like an inverted W arm action or any wasted lower-half motion that would put added stress on his suddenly valuable appendage. The mechanics, velocity and make-up are things that can be built upon. Stewart, however, admits that there is plenty he needs to work on in order to become a successful major league starter. His slider, for one, is an area of his game he would like to improve. Scouts have called it a “wipeout” slider – one that has a ton of glove-side run for him – but ultimately does not look that appetizing to right-handed hitters as it disappears over the left-handed batter’s box. “There’s a lot of things I need to develop. I need to work on throwing my slider inside to righties. Sometimes I let it get away, throw it too hard and it will go away to righties.” No doubt Stewart has a ton of promise but the fact he is a high school arm does not necessarily mean he will produce the kind of return on investment like the collegiate counterparts like Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray do. A 2010 study in the Wall Street Journal found that high school pitchers taken in the first round tended to command more of a bonus than their college brethren, who were also able to realize their potential much swiftly. That doesn’t mean Stewart has any more likelihood of becoming Todd Van Poppel or Dylan Bundy than it a found quarter on the ground will be up heads over tails. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan made it clear what they are looking for when they make a selection, and it has little to do with the current status or statistics. The scouts are looking for the skills, tools, body, competitiveness and attention that will project well for the draftee when they are 22 or 23 years old. The scouting department loves Stewart’s makeup and his athleticism. Those two qualities mean more long-term than his current talent alone. The Twins are investing in the long-term future with their number one pick. Stewart can potentially give them a front of the rotation arm that can miss bats which has been desperately needed in Minnesota for a long time. http://apps.startrib...ry_id=210525781 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7872363.jpg Over his career, Phil Hughes has seemingly been one solid secondary pitch away from taking over the world. Since his prospect days, his curveball was considered this dangerous weapon. For Hughes, unfortunately, the pitch never manifested as that killer pitch as projected. Eventually, the pitch was unceremoniously dropped from his arsenal in 2012. When asked why the deuce took the backseat to other pitches in his repertoire, Hughes cited his inability to execute as one of the main reasons. “It was one of those things where basically it became a first-pitch strike pitch and that’s all I was using it for, and that’s not what I want it to be,” Hughes said in the clubhouse this spring. “But it was out of necessity because I was kind of looping it up there. It wasn’t a good thing.” In his final year with the Yankees, Hughes certainly favored the pitch to start an at-bat off. While he threw the pitch just 11% of the time overall, he spun it up to the plate a nearly quarter of the time on the first pitch to a hitter. Opponents, trained to seek-and-destroy fastballs on the opening pitch, often allowed the big bend to sail past only to find themselves down in the count no balls and one strike. As the at-bat would progress, Hughes had the tendency to then lean on his impressive fastball. Much like former Twin Scott Baker, Hughes would target the top of the zone with a 92+ heater and would register a high percentage of swing-and-misses with an equally insane number of foul balls. With two strikes, and fear that the looping curve would be tipped out of his hand, Hughes stuck to the fastball and slider -- demonstrating a near fifty-fifty split in usage between the two. The results left something to be desired as his .253 opponent batting average against in two-strike situations, the second highest in the game last year, suggested that the current plan was not working. On top of that, his 44% foul ball rate with two-strikes meant he handed out a lot of souvenirs to the ticket holders in the gated community areas of the stadium and also that his pitch count increased quickly. This translated to premature clubhouse showers. So with all that in mind, but without all the numbers to back it up and just ball guy intuitive stuff, Hughes focused on redeveloping the curve to be a legitimate weapon in those types of circumstances. “Coming into spring it was a conscious effort to make sure I was finishing that pitch and keeping my hand out in front so you don’t pick up any spin or have it pop out of my hand,” Hughes explained. Camouflaging your secondary pitches is one of the biggest keys in pitching and, to Hughes’ concern of keeping the curve from “popping” out of his hand, is a big one for that particular pitch. The looping curve, as he described it, is one that has the tendency to come out of the pitcher’s hand a bit higher than a fastball. “A lot of times with curveballs, more than any other pitch, it will go above the fastball plane,” major league pitching instructor Tom House told the Washington Post in 2012. “And if it goes above the fastball plane, then the hitter knows it’s not a fastball.” Which means they sit and let it pass. Or they swing out of their cleats at it. Either way, it becomes a less effective pitch. Through three starts in 2014, it is hard to tell if the tinkering has worked. He has thrown more curveballs throughout each plate appearance but the percentage of times hitters have swung at it has decreased. Plus, no one is chasing after the pitch out of the zone, which means it is not getting buried for strike three. While his strikeout rate has climbed so far this season and may not be directly due to his curveball (12 of his 17 K’s have come on fastballs) it is possible that just occasionally flashing the curve keeps hitters off his fastball. “It’s altering sequences,” Hughes said this spring, “I’ve gotten into some predictable sequences for the most part, so once I get my changeup and cutter going I can kind of alter those a little bit, you know, flipping a few first-pitch curveballs, always keeping it different, that will be good.” In terms of his curve -- his large, looping pitch thrown around 74.1 mph on average -- hitters will see it mainly early in the count (16 of the 44 were thrown on first-pitch) or occasionally with two-strikes (another 18 were thrown in two-strike situations). In both instances, hitters refrained from swinging. Of the 44 thrown, just 14 (31.8%) have been offered at. That’s quite a low total for a curveball overall. Does predictable sequencing explain why Hughes’ curveball has been roundly ignored by opponents? Or is the big loop helping hitters differentiate his curve from other pitches? Some attribute the modern hitters’ ability to lay off these slower breaking pitches to improved analytics and scouting reports. In Boston, a Providence Journal article noted that the Red Sox staff was tightening up their pitch types, moving to cutters and splitters instead of sliders and curves, because the late break of the former would confuse hitters better than the looping curve or long tilt of the slider. “There’s more knowledge in a game now of bat paths and technologies and studies and charts and hot zones, so you can get a picture of somebody’s bat path and where they like to hit the ball,” Red Sox catcher David Ross told the Providence Journal’s Brian Macpherson. “Guys try to stay off that as much as they can off the fastball with a cut or a sink or sharp breaking stuff. The big breaking ball is pretty much obsolete.” While Ross may consider the big breaking ball obsolete, Hughes still breaks his out, just not at the same rate as he did a few years ago while coming up with the Yankees when it was considered a plus-pitch for him. It was last year when Hughes started to feel that hitters were not reacting to the pitch the same and shelved it in favor of the late-break cutter. This season, while he’s thrown his curve more frequently than last year, it is still the cutter that is thrown with greater frequency. Unlike his curve, the cutter is (1) swung at, (2) swung at out of the zone and (3) missed at a higher rate. So maybe the curveball is the savior of a pitch for Phil Hughes that it was made out to be in spring training. He still is doing many things right at this juncture, such as leading the staff in strikeouts and avoiding home runs. If, however, he can find some help in reducing his unsightly batting average on balls in play or the number of foul balls that has blown up his pitch count so frequently, he might be able to stay on the mound beyond the typical five innings of work. Click here to view the article