Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Sano.jpg The Minnesota Twins made a significant move today in the farm system, moving third base prospect Miguel Sano from Fort Myers (A+) to New Britain (AA) reported CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman and was confirmed by 1500ESPN’s Darren Wolfson. Sano was posting remarkable numbers in the Florida State League. Prior to today’s Miracle game – in which Sano belted his 15th and 16th home runs of the year – Sano’s .629 slugging percentage was leading the league. That power output looks even better compared to the rest of the FSL, a notoriously pitcher-friendly league, where the average slugging percentage is .378. Over the last few seasons, Sano had made some progress at the plate and has quieted his pre-swing movement, resulting in the best season to date of his professional career. Insiders have made comments saying that Sano is not necessarily a candidate for relocation away from third. After a season with 42 errors, Sano has trimmed that down to a more manageable 11 gaffes so far this year. Miracle manager told 1500 that he would be hesitant to move him from the position and also said that roving instructor Paul Molitor has been working hard with improving his defense. What can Sano expect from Double-A? At 20 years old, Sano will join just two other hitters in the Eastern League (Jose Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts) who cannot legally purchase beer. Competition and strategy increase significantly over the lower levels as well. The talent is greater and the pitching is more polished. Sano is now one level closer to making good on his promise to reach the major leagues this season. If he is able to rip apart Eastern League pitching like he did to the Florida State League, it would be difficult to keep him down. In addition to Sano, Eddie Rosario and Angel Morales will also move to New Britain and shortstop James Beresford will be promoted to Rochester. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Meyer.jpg The Twins announce that they have have traded Denard Span to the Washington Nationals for pitcher Alex Meyer, a 2011 first round draft pick (23rd overall). The big-bodied Meyer, 6'9" and 220, spent last year split between A and High-A, striking out 26.6% of batters faced, walking just 8.6% and produced a 2.86 ERA which led to an invite to the Futures Game. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fangraphs.com had an excellent write-up on Meyer, noting that his 97-98 MPH fastball is very impressive in addition to his slider - which Baseball America considered the system's best after the 2011 season. From the Fangraphs.com's article, here's Mike Newman's (Scouting the Sally) scouting report on Meyer's secondary stuff: Newman went on to say that the name that popped into his head the most was "Matt Clement" - a promising pitcher who never lived up to the hype. Following his draft in 2011, Baseball America's Aaron Fitt said this about the right-hander, noting caution of mechanical issues which plagues taller pitchers: Clement and now Brackman? Uff. Not the most impressive comparables. Still, as Fitt said, there is high-upside there, potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy - something the Twins don't have now, nor deeper in the farm system. Given his age (23 in January), there's an outside possibility that Meyer could be ready to join the rotation sometime in 2014. In trading Span, the Twins free themselves of a $4.75 million commitment for 2013 and $7 million in 2014 ($6.5M plus a $500,000 buyout). Click here to view the article

Download attachment: logo.jpg Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman got together to discuss their brand new logo and share feelings. Parker described a hellish family vacation on the North Shore. They discussed Oswaldo Arcia’s slumping tendencies but also pondered whether or not Kyle Gibson was becoming an "ace" (spoiler: who knows) and whether or not the Twins have peaked (spoiler: who knows). Parker let Dan talk about soccer for 10 minutes (spoiler: Parker still doesn't like soccer) and the guys wished a fond farewell to Tony Gwynn (spoiler: damn he was good). Listen below, on iTunes or Stitcher. NO JUICE PODCAST - EPISODE 10 - NEW LOGO Follow us on Twitter: @NoJuicePodcast Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit.jpg The cause of an injury to one of his hottest hitters in June, from what was an avoidable play by Indians’ catcher Yan Gomes, is not ignored by manager Ron Gardenhire. Ryan Doumit had been hitting .278/.345/.481 with three home runs, five doubles and a triple in June prior to suffering a sprained ankle in Cleveland on June 23. Since the incident, Doumit has sat out three games and has gone 5-for-20 (.250) without any extra base hits in his 21 plate appearances. Doumit, who was coming in to score on Oswaldo Arcia’s double, was forced to stutter-step around home as Gomes swung his left leg across the plate area for a brief moment.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] From his vantage point, Gardenhire contends that this move was an intentional attempt to divert Doumit’s path. "We had a great view from the dugout and the catcher didn't have the ball and at the last second he stuck his foot back on top of home plate," Gardenhire said on his 1500ESPN radio show. "Just kind of reached out behind him and stuck his foot there before the ball got home. That's kind of one of those not good plays in baseball. (Doumit) ends up spraining his ankle and we were pretty upset about that.” Here is a clip of the offending play: http://i.imgur.com/rBHPRO2.gif With the advantage of the replay, we can see that the play was all but over when Doumit arrive to the plate. The ball was both late and offline. Ignore Gomes for a moment. The interesting thing here is that Doumit does not slide. Certainly this does not change the fact that Gomes was in a place he shouldn’t be, but a slide would have made for a safe and injury-free arrival to home plate. Just three days earlier, when the Twins were taking on the White Sox, Doumit was thrown out at the plate on a close play (video here). Notice that Doumit does not slide on this play either – despite the fact that Justin Morneau was clearly waving for him to hit the deck. This play had just as much likelihood of Doumit injuring himself as did the Gomes play. Someone teach this man to slide. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4675[/ATTACH] For a split second Gomes could have been thinking that he might have an opportunity to block a slide (which Doumit should have been doing) and apply a quick tag. That notion likely disappeared quickly as the chances of the ball beating Doumit to the plate vanished. Also, judging from the flight of the ball, he may initially have had thoughts of trying to reposition himself to receive it, but thought better of it as Doumit approached. The fact is it is hard to say if Gomes did have malicious intent. Going by the book, Gomes had no right to be positioned in the place that he was. In fact, simply being there is against the rules. According to the MLB rulebook, Rule 7.06 states that: This rule has rarely, if ever, been enforced by umpires. On the other hand, baseball’s unwritten rules state that Gomes’ behavior was a huge no-no and could, ultimately, warrant retaliation. "In that play, the plate was open, the ball wasn't going to be there and the next thing you know the guy sticks his leg out," Gardenhire said on his show. "(That) is not a good thing in baseball. It's kind of one of those unwritten rules that blocking the plate without the ball or trying to trip somebody ... (you look for) payback." Eye for an eye. Tooth for a tooth. Catcher for a catcher. Mostly due to the injuries during collisions at home plate to San Francisco’s Buster Posey and St. Louis’s Yadier Molina, MLB’s rule has been debated at length over the past several years. It could prove to be a difficult rule to completely abolish, mostly because it (home plate collision) is an event that takes two to tango: one, the runner barreling in and two, the catcher walling off home plate. In most cases catchers are portrayed as innocent victims. But catchers have their own methods which can force the runner into a full-out offensive – be it a hard slide or a lowered shoulder. While MLB could suspend those runners who turn their bodies into projectiles, there still exists the practice of teaching catchers how to block home plate from the incoming runner which exposes the catchers to a variety of injuries. Ryan Doumit is no stranger to this education process: in 2008 while he was in camp with the Pittsburgh Pirates, then-manager John Russell, a former catcher himself, gave Doumit additional attention showing him techniques to “blocking home plate”. These lessons obviously were handy and useful when Doumit suffered an ankle sprain in 2011 after the Cubs’ Carlos Pena wiped out his left ankle in a slide at home plate (which Doumit was blocking like a solar eclipse). Had Doumit remained inside the baseline and not attempted to block Pena with his leg, he would have had an easy sweep tag and a healthy ankle. The Oakland Athletics -- those damn nerdy book-types -- took note of what happened to the franchise backstop across the Bay in 2011 and issued an edict from the top to keep their catchers out of harm’s way. Then-A’s catcher Kurt Suzuki said that Billy Beane told him specifically to give the runner the right-of-way to avoid contact at the plate. Likewise, the New York Mets had this topic broached in spring training when manager Terry Collins ordered catcher Travis d’Arnaud to avoid blocking the plate with his left leg because of prior knee injuries. Mets GM Sandy Alderson – and chairman of the rules committee, by the way – responded to Collins’ request to his catcher shortly after, suggesting that the organization needed to look at its policy on the subject of plate-blocking. “Whether that will be permanent with him or permanent with all of our catching prospects of something [Mets catcher] John Buck will adopt, or the spike tag will becomes standard for catchers in the big leagues- I don’t know,” Alderson told a group of Mets bloggers. “But I think it’s an issue we have to address globally, rather than just in the case of Travis d’Arnaud. And to some extent we have an obligation to treat everyone the same way.” Then there are instances that make you wonder whether certain teams are going the extra mile to instill in their catchers the principle of protecting the plate at all costs, that they are the last line of defense against one more run. As mentioned above, Pittsburgh took time to instill plate-blocking techniques. While it could be coincidental, Cleveland recently has had a string of catchers take some beatings at home plate. In 2010, rookie catcher Carlos Santana had his knee ligaments rearranged while Boston’s Ryan Kalish bulled into his lower half that was straddling the baseline before the ball’s arrival. That was not even Santana’s first run-in at the dish that year. In the third game of his career, the White Sox’s Adam Dunn tried to separate Santana from his equipment for standing directly in front of home (and the throw was cut off by the first baseman). Meanwhile, this April, Indians catcher Lou Marson was blown up at the plate by the Rays’ Desmond Jennings after a bang-bang play when Jennings tried to score from third on an infield grounder to the third baseman. Marson was up the line and blocking the entire route home. Afterwards, Marson provided insight on his technique in that situation, which is to get the runner to hesitate before the collision. "I'm trying to block the plate and make you make a decision,” said the catcher. “Are you going to slide, or are you going to try to blow me up? I feel like that split second they have to decide kind of slows them down, at least a little bit." Gomes, who is new to the Indians organization in 2013, may have been preparing to do something similar to what Marson described on the play. Block the plate and brace for contact. From Gomes’ perspective, there could have been a play at the plate forthcoming. It was not as if the ball was heading for a cut-off man. And it was not as if Ryan Doumit was running like a bat out of hell either. Plus there was the added factor of the throw being outside the third base line while Gomes was set up inside the line. With a runner coming home from third, Gomes may have been beginning to maneuver to corral the throw which was then heading behind the on-rushing Doumit. Of course, superseding what was going on inside Gomes’ head is the fact that both MLB’s rules and baseball’s code – the unwritten rules of the game – both explicitly say that the catcher shouldn’t be anywhere near the base without the ball. Had Doumit been a different kind of individual, he may have leveled Gomes like Dunn did to Santana and in the baseball world would have been completely vindicated. Doumit didn’t and suffered a sprained ankle for his troubles. Even Gomes’ own manager, Terry Francona, would have likely condoned Doumit running into Gomes as a “baseball play”. "If you don't want to have a collision, instruct your catcher to move. That's really easy, but you can't make a rule,” Francona said not long after his catcher Lou Marson was removed from his spikes. “The rule is the catcher can't block the plate until he has the ball. For the very most part, that's when you see guys get hit. They're the gritty guys, but they try to block the plate before they have the ball, and there's a bobble, or they get in late, and they can't brace themselves. That's where you see the problems.” Will the Twins retaliate when the Indians come to town in a little over a week? The fireworks will be on display on July 4 but if Ron Gardenhire makes good on his promises, there may be a second show later this month. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: partyboys.jpg A "No Geek Week", Twins Daily's Parker Hageman fills in for John Bonnes and joins Aaron Gleeman at 612Brew.com to talk Twins. Topics include partying at The Gleemanor, Alex Meyer the substitute teacher, dropping Darin Mastroianni from the 40-man roster, throwing televisions off balconies, hypothesizing about Masahiro Tanaka, the Hall of Fame and Jack Morris, Kurt Suzuki threatening Josmil Pinto, and mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Gleeman & The Geek: Episode 126 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Ryan.JPG The Twins have released a statement today from Terry Ryan who says that he will miss at least the beginning portion of spring training because of cancer that is considered treatable. Ryan will undergo treatment at the Mayo Clinic for Squamous Cell Carcinoma after a biopsy of a lump on his neck was determined to be cancerous. Dr. Vijay Eyunni told the media Monday afternoon that the cancer was sourced to his lymph nodes and not skin cancer as previously reported. Here is the entirety of Ryan's statement: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] According to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger, Ryan will undergo surgery tomorrow and the hopes are that a combination of surgery and radiation treatment will eliminate the cancer. All the best to Terry Ryan and his family. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Outfield.jpg After months of expecting Josh Willingham to move from left field, the outfield position he has played the most in his career, across the turf to right field, Ron Gardenhire has switched courses on that plan. Back in February, Gardenhire acknowledged that the experiment of moving Willingham to right field might not work but that they would be ready if he would be unable to adapt to the new position: "That's what we are going to do. We're going to try to figure this out in Spring Training. We're going to start out this way and if it looks like it's working OK and he's getting used to that, he'll be out in right field. But if it looks like he's not comfortable in right field, I know the other guys can do it for a fact." Prior to Sunday's game, the Twins manager said that Willingham would be his left fielder and not his right fielder has was initially intended. "Let's call Josh Willingham my left fielder," Gardenhire said before Sunday afternoon's game with the Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. Those who have watched him play have rated his arm as being below average. According to Fangraphs.com's Fans Scouting Report his Arm Strength has rated a 45 on a scale of 100 and an even slower release (40). This is not exactly ideal for right field play where those individuals have to make the longer throw to third base in addition to home plate making his transfer back to left field a better idea. Of course, voters think little of his range as well. In those categories - First Step and Speed - Willingham rated 34 and 37 respectively. Meanwhile, the BillJamesOnline.net Plus/Minus system says that he has had troubles over his career in left going back on balls, finishing -21 on deep balls dating back to 2008. Perhaps it was one of both of these factors that played a role in Gardenhire's decision to move Willingham back to his more familiar position. So who is going to be the starting right fielder? Gardenhire said the race is between the hot-hitting Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere (who is likely going to wind up the team's fourth outfielder, according to the team's assistant general manager Rob Antony on 1500ESPN.com). Parmelee's clearly earned an opportunity to play for this team with both is previous September performance as well as his torrid spring. However, he is fairly raw when it comes to outfield play. In the past two years in the minors, he's played 57 games in right field. His range factor of 1.86 (RF/G) over his full minor league playing time in right suggests that he isn't a significant liability (by comparison Michael Cuddyer's career range factor in right is 1.87) but he's not going to be a coverage guy in the field either. Likewise Plouffe is also green when it comes to the outfield position, having only played 21 games in the outfield in his professional career. Revere, who was the early favorite over the winter, had worked hard during the offseason to get his arm strength up to snuff (whereas Willingham's rated a 45 on Arm Strength, Revere was rated a 4) but the organization seems to have cooled on the idea of him being a starter. While he has been an amazing fly-tracker, reports from Fort Myers is that Revere is struggling when he has to charge balls on the ground. Although neither Gardenhire nor Antony mentioned this in their discussion of the outfield alignment, Ryan Doumit's name will very likely be mixed in the lineup in the outfield - particularly if Justin Morneau is a DH and Parmelee is shifted to first base. After dishing out $4 million to him, there is little doubt in my mind that they attempt to get him into the lineup more than two times a week to allow Mauer to rest. For the more fly-ball oriented pitchers on this staff, this alignment should raise their anxiety levels just a bit. With Revere and Span, the pitchers had some reassurance that more fly balls would find leather. Now, the gaps are going to get a little bigger. The hope, of course, is that with this alignment, the Twins should have a more potent offense that would off-set the defensive liability. Click here to view the article

When the Twins signed Kevin Correia this offseason, they knew his ceiling was not high as, say, Francisco Liriano’s would be. They also figured that Correia’s floor would not be as low as Liriano’s either. Their goal was to acquire some semblance of consistency that was grossly lacking in 2012. To their credit, the Twins got just that – a pitcher who made every start and, after tonight’s outing, will have accumulated almost 200 innings. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Download attachment: Correia.jpg Sure, the win/loss record and ERA were reflective of a slightly below average starter but when it comes to value, his innings total help offset that gap. According to Fangraphs.com’s valuation metrics Correia has been “worth” 1.1 wins above replacement equaling $5.5 million in value – or a surplus of $1.5 million compared to his $4.5 million actual contract for 2013. With the exception of Anibel Sanchez and the aforementioned Liriano, no other starting pitching free agent was able to provide as much value as Correia has. With one year remaining on his two-year deal, Correia will likely be one of the few carry-overs to the 2014 rotation. He recently answered a few questions from TwinsDaily.com: Correia on his approach after switching from the National League to the American League: No, it comes down to trying to get batters out one at a time. In the National League obvious there are different situations, like there’s a pitcher involved and you are going to have more bunting situations and you are going to be taken out of the game maybe a little earlier because your spot is coming up to bat, but as far as when you are out on the mound I got what I got. I’m gonna try to attack you with what I got that day, with the best stuff that I have. It doesn’t really change league to league. It’s more of just learning the hitters a bit, their approaches and just going from there. On being able to limit stolen base attempts: I think I’m just quick to home plate. I’m comfortable slide-stepping and getting the ball quickly to home plate. Some guys like a big leg-kick and it is harder for them to slide-step and I’m comfortable with it. It’s hard to run on a slide-step. Not to mention Joe Mauer’s been there most of the time and if you want to go on the slide-step, he’s probably gonna throw you out. So it’s tough. On his best pitch: For me it’s any given day it can change. That’s how I pitch. I don’t have one pitch that if they know it’s coming, I might be able to get it by them. I work on being able to throw four different pitches for strikes at any point in the count. So it really changes thorough out the game. On making changes to his approach: I’ve changed my whole career. I came up as a hard-throwing four-seam guy with a circle-change and a slider. Now I throw more two-seam fastballs, a curveball and a split. I mean, you are constantly changing. I think if you are going to play as long as I have you have to make adjustments and I have done so when I needed too. On throwing his changeups to same-sided hitters: I mix it into righties, I mean, not as often as I do to lefties but like James Shields, he’s got an incredible changeup and he can throw it all day to righties. I just think I am forced to throw all my pitches. I throw a split and a circle-change. I think my split is more like a changeup and my circle-change is more like a split. I don’t know why it’s been like that, but I try to use them both and whatever one feels better that day. On stats: I barely look at my ERA or anything like that. I think I was kind of before that stuff started so I never really factored that stuff in. On game preparation: I look at video a lot. I know my stuff isn’t moving a ton. I face these guys four times this year and I’ll watch pretty much…I’ll get the lineup and I’ll watch how I faced all these guys before. I don’t really look at…a lot of guys like to look at a pitcher who kind of compares to them and how they pitched them but I kind of like how I’ve done in the past because it gives me and idea of what they might be looking for or whatever they’ve been successful off of. I go with feel a lot. I like getting in a game and feeling how it is going. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: BullpenCar.jpg If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Burton2.jpg The ball explodes out of the pitcher’s hand. You immediately pick up the spin and conclude it is close enough to a fastball that he must be trying to go upstairs with a low-90s four-seamer. However, in the middle of your stride, you recall the hitting coach’s scouting report that says the pitcher has a tendency to turn to the changeup at any point. Suddenly, the spin doesn’t quite look like that four-seamer and you realize: Oh God, it’s not the fastball. In a fraction of a nanosecond, you try to adjust to the speed differential. The message is sent from your brain to your extremities but it’s too late.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] With all of your momentum going towards the pitcher, it is like trying to stop a runaway train. Your hips are already driving forward but the pitch, like Delta Airlines, is slightly delayed on its arrival. It’s at this point when you confirm that the ball is tailing away and the bottom is falling out. You keep your hands back in efforts to react to the off-speed pitch. You realize that there’s no way you can do anything of use with this pitch. It’s quickly fading down and away. At best, you can flick it over the heads of the left-side infielders or maybe foul it off into the seats and live to fight another pitch but, either way, you are committed. You can feel your hands depart and bring your bat around to swish its way through the swing zone. With your weight all on the front leg, you make a last ditch effort to punch the ball. By this point, the ball is at the southern-most portion of the strike zone and still falling. The bat makes an empty woosh as it clears the plate. *** Over 20 percent of all swings on Jared Burton’s changeup conclude like that – without any contact. “I’ve been throwing it since college, really,” Burton says in his Carolina drawl. “It’s always been just a grip but comes out of my hand much harder than a changeup.” Normal changeups, it is said, require about nine miles an hour of difference from the fastball. Rays closer Fernando Rodney, who is credited with having one of the best in the game today, has 12 miles per hour separating his mid-90s fastball from his low-to-mid-80s change. By comparison, Burton typically has just five. And yes, it does come out much harder than the average changeup. Burton’s 87.6 mile-per-hour velocity on his change registers higher than everyone but St. Louis’s Trevor Rosenthal (88). Burton says his particular grip gives him bit more movement than the standard changeups. “It’s basically a circle-change grip but I hold it out on the tip of my fingers more and choke it. It’s much harder and it’s got late down movement. It’s been a good pitch for me.” Over the past two years, it certainly has been a very good pitch for him. According to Fangraphs.com, the Pitch Value on his changeup has been worth 10.4 runs above average, the third-highest among relievers, trailing just Tyler Clippard and the aforementioned Rodney. And, just this year alone, opponents are hitting .152 off it, one of the lowest marks in the game. The action has earned it a different label than just "changeup". After all, calling it a changeup would be a disservice to how impressive a specimen the pitch actually is. “I throw it like changeup but it’s much harder with splitter movement hence the ‘splangeup’ - splitter action.” “I can throw it any time, righty or lefty,” Burton boasts. “It’s more of a swing-and-miss pitch but I can throw it for a strike a good bit. I can kind of throw it more where it fades in the zone or where it has more downward movement.” For the most part, pitchers tend to shy away from throwing their changeups to same-sided opponents. Teammate Brian Duensing acknowledges that he refrains from using his changeup on lefties because he feels the movement goes into their swings. Burton does not share that hesitation because of the variation he has on it, being able to drop it down or make it run. Over the past two seasons, he’s thrown 642 changeups – 315 to lefties and 327 to righties. It is confidence in the pitch that helped earn Burton a two-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. *** Now down 1-2 in the count, you step out of the box to clear your mind and regroup. That last pitch was all types of nasty. Over 30,000 people in the stadium and a million more watching from the comforts of their homes saw you look foolish. It’s late in the game. Your team needs a couple runs to get back in this thing but the opportunities are wearing thin. What’s next? He’s got a mid-90s fastball that he can waste over the zone and change your eye level but he also has a decent slide piece that can cut down-and-in. Of course, you cannot forget a possible repeat performance of the changeup - he throws it great deal when he has a kill shot. You dig back into the batter’s box while requesting time and go through the possibilities. All in all, it feels like a guess. Look for the hard stuff up or in while trying to fight off the soft stuff down in the zone. Protect. You put your hand down, give the bat a few firm shakes towards the pitcher, raise the bat back up to your shoulder, exhale and settle in. *** Always keep hitters guessing. Play the mind game. “I never get too predictable,” Burton admits, repeating what pitching coaches have preached to him for more than a decade. “I like to be confident on all pitches but primarily everything works off my fastball command. I concentrate on that first in the bullpen, get my fastball command down and make sure I am getting out front with my release point and my off-speeds work off of that.” Predictability can be a pitcher’s worst enemy. A changeup is called a changeup because it is supposed to be a change from the fastball. What’s more, too many non-fastballs help hitters read the spin and the break. A solid fastball is needed in order to make the change work properly. Burton throws his changeup a lot but recognizes the need to mix in other offerings like his two fastballs -- a four-seam and two-seam – as well as his slider. Burton’s control of his fastball has not been was it was a year ago. According to PitchF/X data, in 2012 he threw his fastball in the zone 58 percent of the time. This year the fastball has been in the zone just 46 percent of the time, one of the reasons he has walked a few more batters than he would have liked. That, in addition to a slight groin tweak, may have played a role in his work in the month of June and his subsequent demotion in the bullpen’s hierarchy. In June, he entered 10 games, worked 9.2 innings and allowed 14 hits with 6 walks that led to 9 runs. Opponents went 14-for-43 (.326) with seven extra base hits, including two home runs. Burton earned three losses in that stretch and fell out of favor for use in the eighth inning. Burton did not blame the tweaked groin or any mechanical changes or arm ailments. He also did not rush out for answers by examining video or seeking assistance from outside sources for his disappointing month. “It’s just a part of the game, really,” he says. “It’s a little harder to get over the ones where you feel you are executing but not getting results, but you just have to ride it out. You can’t ride the peaks and valleys, you have to stay right in the middle. You have to know that 70-75 games that if you stick with your stuff, it is going to work out.” That, in essence, is the fundamental reasoning in the sabermetric theory of Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. Over the course of a season, a pitcher who strikes out hitters at a high rate, does not walk many and allows few home runs should be the benefactor of decent mainstream statistics like ERA over the course of a season. Continuing to do the basics like get strikeouts while limiting walks and home runs, should bring the totals back down following rough patches like Burton experienced in June. Burton has clearly stuck with his stuff. Since June ended, he has made 15 appearances, striking out 13, walking just two while not allowing a home run. As such, his overall numbers have rebounded nicely and his ERA dropped from 3.57 to 3.19. *** It is consistency and trust in his stuff that has gotten Burton where he is today. Sure, he has made some changes to his training regimen that he feels has improved his game. Following his second shoulder surgery while with Cincinnati, Burton took up swimming. He feels his performance benefited from this routine so he continues to incorporate the workout, both during and after the season. Outside of that, it is business as usually for Burton. Establish the fastball, deploy the change and mentally prepare for the peaks and valleys. Click here to view the article

We were introduced to Jose Berrios in a video of him celebrating with his friends and family after receiving the exquisite news that he was drafted by a professional baseball team. Arms in a “V”, high-fives, hugs and tears. For Minnesota Twins fans, the sequel is of him doing the same thing on the field following the last out of a World Series victory. That’s the dream anyway. There remains, of course, a long road from here to there. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Still, Berrios has done much in his burgeoning career to inspire hope that he can be a part of any championship team in the coming years. After the draft, the supplemental first round pick dominated rookie ball in both the Appalachian and Gulf Coast Leagues in 2012, racking up 49 strikeouts and allowing just four walks in 30.2 innings. Baseball America said he was the team’s sixth best prospect in a system where new and elite talent was constantly being stocked. Download attachment: top-prospects-06-jose-berrios.jpg This past season Berrios, at the ripe age of 19, performed well in the tougher competitive challenge in the Midwest League. Mindful of his development, the Twins pulled back the reins to help insure he remains out of the infirmary, where so many of their lauded pitching prospects have gone. And, like most raw prospect talents, he also encountered some resistance as he discovered he could not always throw his speedball by you to make you look like a fool. Why He Might Struggle Berrios’ stature -- generously listed at six-foot-nothing -- may be his biggest perceived weakness. While that would be an inch and change above my current height, by major league pitching standards, that is considered downright diminutive. With a three-quarters delivery, there have been occasions when he has been unable to get the ball down in the zone and when that happens...boom. According to MinorLeagueCentral.com’s depository of stats, Berrios managed just a 40% ground ball rate - a figure toward the bottom of the Midwest League’s leaderboard. As a pitcher ascends in a system that rate typically decreases. It would be nicer to see that number at 50% or higher to go along with his strikeouts but that would take a complete revamping of his repertoire and mechanics. Basically, he is what he is: a strikeout pitcher with fly ball-leaning tendencies. The strikeouts, however, did not come in as many bunches this past season as they did his first year in the organization. He’s got a lively fastball, a decent curve with a 1-to-7 break and a good changeup with plenty of arm-side run. During his amatuer days, Perfect Game noted that Berrios had flashed a cutter to go along with his other three pitches. His problem, he acknowledged this summer, is that he tries to throw the fastball past everyone rather than mix in the assortment. Why He Will Succeed OK, so he won’t win any...umm...height contests but wowzers, that’s an impressive wing span on the young man. What is striking about Berrios is how polished his mechanics are for his age and how well he hides the ball from hitters in his windup. With three above-average pitches, it is easy to see why he can miss bats; just a little tinkering with his pitch deployment strategy could make for a very lethal pitcher. Beyond that, much has been made of Berrios’ work ethic. Gary Lucas, his pitching coach with Cedar Rapids last year, raved about his advanced make-up for someone as young as he is. He told Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs recently that he places a great deal of emphasis on his training. There is no reason to think that Berrios won’t do everything in his power to take his God-given talent to the next level. What’s Next? Berrios is a long way from being in the Twins’ roster anytime in the near future. Realistically he may be best suited to be a late-innings reliever, someone who doesn’t have to churn through 100 bullets a night and who can stomp his cleats on hitters’ throats with his two best pitches. That said, there is no reason to write him off as a potential starter. Some refinement in his approach and filling out as he matures could propel him into a rotation spot. Either way, Berrios has some electric stuff that -- barring catastrophic injuries -- will eventually be on display at the major league level. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hicks.jpg Congratulations, Mr. Hicks. You are going where few Minnesota Twins minor leaguers have gone before: Straight to the Opening Day starting lineup. Since the opening of the Metrodome in 1982, there have been just seven players in the Minnesota starting lineup to jump to from the minors to the Opening Day lineup: Jim Eisenreich, Chuck Knoblauch, Marty Cordova, Chad Allen, Cristian Guzman, Joe Mauer and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While all of those aforementioned players produced strong numbers in the minor leagues, they faced increasingly challenging competition in the first season as the dossier on their strengths and weaknesses grew. Some -- like Knoblauch, Cordova and Mauer -- adjusted well. Others did not. This is a story from a free ebook that TwinsDaily is publishing on Opening Day that previews the Minnesota Twins 2013 season. To get your free copy, just make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter or Like our Facebook page. Why is it that players can seem so destined for greatness based on their minor league track records, struggle once promoted to the ultimate level? For starters, there is a lack of knowledge in the minor leagues which favors the hitters. Red Sox catcher Ryan Lavarnway explained to the Providence Journal’s Brian MacPherson exactly how difficult it is to create a strategy for minor league hitters. “Going into a game in the minors, you don’t know the hitters,” said the Red Sox catcher. “You’re kind of blind. In the big leagues, you have a game plan of how you want to go about it.” In the minors there are no Pitchf/x graphs or extensive collection of video to determine how to approach a particular hitter. There are no advanced scouts marking down every observation on how to best exploit a hitter’s weaknesses for the upcoming series. Players who have quality approach at the plate often see a fleeting rush of success at the major league level prior to reports circulating among the clubs. Teams will attack the strike zone with strikes. They will fire fastballs in fastball counts. Only once it becomes clear that a young player proves he is very capable of handling that assortment do pitchers start to pick around the plate and breaking off more benders when a fastball is expected. Then it is up to the hitter to make the adjustment. In many ways, what will be awaiting Hicks is the same process that both Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier faced in 2012. When Parmelee came up in September 2011, he was punishing the ball all over the field. He saw few off-speed offerings in fastball counts. Teams rarely challenged him up-and-away. This performance continued into spring training but opponents began to cultivate a different game plan during the regular season and he scuffled more, only to be sent back to Rochester for additional tooling. Similarly, Dozier had some immediate success by driving plenty of fastballs to left field. That is, until teams picked up on his pull-happy tendency and moved their target to the outer-half of the zone. The same hitter who had once drew walks in 10% of his minor league plate appearances, was only able to finesse a free pass in 5% of his MLB plate appearances. Unable to adjust, Dozier’s numbers continued southward and in August, Dozier was headed eastward to Rochester. Hicks’ gaudy minor league walk rate does not necessarily mean that he is a strike zone savant or stingy with swinging at breaking balls in the dirt. Hitters that move up levels likely won’t see a significant amount of breaking balls – a product of a lack of advanced scouting. Sure, there is always the two-strike hook, but those should be anticipated at any level. As Hicks gets challenged more as the 2013 season progresses, we will see how disciplined he actually is. He is already prone to strike out (20% of his minor league plate appearances), so it is possible that he is going to K more frequently. Like all players before him, Hicks will need to be able to adapt to his opposition – which is easier said than done. You'll get to kick of Opening Day with your free @TwinsDaily Minnesota Twins 2013 Season Preview. Just add us to your Twitter feed by following us, or tell us you like us (we're pathetic like that). We'll publish a link to the free ebook on Opening Day on both sites. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Deduno.jpg The Minnesota Twins PR director, Dustin Morse, tweeted out on Tuesday that manager Ron Gardenhire said that the team will go with Samuel Deduno on Friday in Detroit rather than the prospect Kyle Gibson, who was coming off a complete game shutout in his most recent start. Deduno spent time with the Twins last year, displaying an odd combination of a low hit rate and a lack of control. This resulted in some dominating outings but also several short ones. In 15 starts he pitched 79 innings, or less than 5.1 IP per start. Overall he posted a 4.44 ERA with 57 strikeouts - and almost as many walks (53). Despite being the second best starting pitcher on the staff, he was dropped from the 40-man roster and yet re-signed with the Twins. This year he left spring training with the Twins to pitch for the Dominican Republic team in the World Baseball Classic. He pitched five scoreless inning in the championship game, finishing with 17K and just 5 BB in 13 IP. However, he pulled a groin in that championship game which landed him on the disabled list until May 5th and assigned to AAA-Rochester. He's again put up some solid numbers in Rochester - he has a 2.70 ERA and 17K in 16.2 IP. However, he also has had 10 walks and has only thrown 16.2 inning in 3 starts - an average just under 5.2 IP per start. Gibson, who has made nine starts with the Red Wings this year, has tossed 52.2 innings and posted a solid 46-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a decent 3.25 ERA. The ERA was significantly higher than expected when you compare it to his sterling 2.84 FIP, the fourth lowest mark in the International League. Still, Gibson, who is coming off of Tommy John surgery and has a innings limit for the year, was bypassed in favor of Deduno. A corresponding roster move should be announced shortly as it is speculated that either Tim Wood or Darin Mastroianni will be added to the 60-day disabled list. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pelf.jpg Just a month removed from being celebrated for his amazingly quick recovery from Tommy John surgery less than 11 months ago, Mike Pelfrey’s numbers through his first four starts in a Twins uniform have been extremely disappointing. This raises the question of whether or not Pelfrey is completely ready for re-introduction into the major leagues. After all, this is in line with the plight of Joe Nathan in 2010 who rushed through his rehab only to hit a wall a month into the season. Despite being the owner of a 7.94 ERA through 17 innings in 2013, the notion of removing Pelfrey from the rotation at this point appears moot. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The idea was quickly shot down by manager Ron Gardenhire following his most recent start, said Pioneer Press beat writer Mike Bernadino. Clearly, Pelfrey has a lot of things going wrong right now. If you were listening to the broadcasts, you were told that the reason that the big right-hander is struggling is due to his decline in velocity. But let’s be honest here: It’s not as if Pelfrey is suddenly throwing the Henry Rowengartner floater pitch to every batter he sees. It’s less than a mile per hour slower. In 2011, his last full season at the major leagues, he was throwing his fastball at 92.2 miles per hour. This year, it has been at 91.3. All things considered, that is not substantial. Let’s take a look at the things that are really plaguing him in 2013. (1) Command. Experts and those who have gone through the procedure agree that command is the last skill to return after Tommy John surgery. Last week, Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs.com interviewed Kansas City Royals’ pitching coach Dave Eiland – someone who had gone through the surgical process and recovery in his playing days – echoed that sentiment. “One of the last things to come back is the command.” Eiland told Zimmerman, “You might feel strong. You might be fast. You might be good to go. Pitching off the mound and competing in a game is all together different then throwing sides and batting practice. My suggestion is if you think everything feels good, take another month.” Pelfrey’s return was heralded as nothing short of miraculous. And in many ways it was. No other pitcher on record has come back from the surgery in fewer than 12 months and competed in a major league game. However, we have seen his struggles to command the ball. Like Eiland said, you can feel great in many other facets of the game, but once the real games start, your precision may not be all there. In Pelfey’s case, his ability to locate the ball in the strike zone has been one of the worst in the league. After his first three outings, Pelfrey’s in-zone percentage – the number of pitches he has thrown in the strike zone – is 39.8%, the sixth-lowest in baseball. Worse, the five below him throw a high percentage of breaking balls – pitches that are harder to command and are often supposed to be out of the strike zone -- while Pelfrey has been throwing his fastball/sinker 70% of the time. Fortunately, Pelfrey found the zone more frequently in his start against the Marlins on Tuesday (58 of 94 pitches) to increase his zone presence. What is more worrisome than not throwing the ball over the plate is his missing his spots. Here is a recent example of this malfeasance. This sinker to Rob Brantley was supposed to be down and away, per Ryan Doumit’s request, but wound up in the middle of the zone: Download attachment: Pelf_Target1.jpg Download attachment: Pelf_Location1.jpg This particular pitch was lasered to the right field gap for a two-run double. Some such pitches and outcomes have not been that detrimental but a lot of the contact allowed, even on the ground, has been loud and solid. (2) His pitches are staying up in the zone. What the noise from the bats is telling the ball guys around the stadium, the data from pitch f/x confirms: Pelfrey’s pitches just are not moving the way they did prior to the injury. When it comes to his sinker, the pitch is staying up in the zone, on average, an inch high than it has in the past. Where it was coming in at 5.5 inches in 2010, 6.7 in 2011 and 6.2 in 2012, it has shot up to 7.5 inches this season, meaning there is less of a sink. Less sink from a sinkerball pitcher is not a good thing. Results wind up like the aforementioned example. His slider, his most often used secondary pitch, has had less vertical drop compared to previous seasons. In 2010, his vertical finish was 3.4 inches. Same in 2011. This year, it is 6.8, a little over three inches higher than his last two healthy seasons, meaning less downward movement. This is very comparable to Joe Nathan during his recovery with the Twins in 2010. Prior to heading back to Rochester, Nathan's slider stayed in the 6-to-7 inch range while in the past there was much more substantial drop than that. Finally, his split-finger change, a pitch he throws mainly to lefties, has been splattered across the field the few times it has been thrown. Opponents are 4-for-6 off it and, you guessed it, it too is staying up in the zone. This has translated into a whole lot of contact and a whole lot of well-struck contact – even if the majority of it has resulted in grounders. That is how you “scatter” 29 hits over 17 innings. (3) Release point. This ties in to the first two items. His release point is measurably lower than his 2011 season. Two years ago, Pelfrey was releasing his pitches a little over six feet high. That has since dropped to under five-feet-nine-inches, according to BrooksBaseball.net. Download attachment: Pelfrey_Release1.jpg Download attachment: Pelfrey_Release2.jpg The angles are different, but the release point is captured well in these examples. In 2011, you see the higher release point – a great thing considering his overall large stature. In 2012, that leveled out some. While a few inches may not seem like much, this lowered released point is likely one of the reasons he is not seeing the usual downward movement, since his sinker and slider flatten out when his arm angle drops and he is unable to stay on top of the ball. (4) Mound Presence. Sinkerball pitchers are a finicky lot. Former Met teammate and once-upon-a-time sinkerballer, R.A. Dickey, told reporters in 2011 how easy it is to completely lose the feel for the pitch after Pelfrey continued to have issues that spring. “There’s so many different things that can impact the movement of the pitch,” Dickey told reporters, “that you do, sometimes, lose it for a period.” Dickey went on to say that a slight change in the grip or the arm action could cause a loss of movement that he would struggle to regain. The Mets discovered that Pelfrey is someone who had a history of needing to readjust regularly. Early in his career, he kept his glove at chest level when he started his windup. He changed that to keeping his hands at belt-level before his windup. In spring training of 2012, he went to bringing his hands over his head in order to get more of a downward plane and stay on top of his sinker, the same motion he uses today. Additionally, after being a guy who had worked off the third base side of the rubber for most of the previous two seasons, he swapped that practice for the far left side of the rubber, pitching instead off the first base side. Take a look: Download attachment: Pelfrey_RUBBER.jpg It may be minor, but when you add up all the changes and alterations in the past several years, in addition to the recovery from the Tommy John surgery, these may be affecting his ability to repeat his mechanics consistently to the point where he can't command all his pitches effectively. (5) Tempo. Mike Hargrove, in his playing days with Texas and Cleveland in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, was affectionately known as “The Human Rain Delay” for his . Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey, a few decades later and sixty-feet-and-six-inches away from the batter’s box, is doing his own version of that in 2013. While not nearly as OCD as Hargrove, Pelfrey’s pace on the mound is staggeringly slow. After maintaining a normal pace of around 22 seconds per pitch, the right-hander is lulling opponents and fans to sleep with his 27.5 seconds between each pitch. By comparison, Houston’s Bud Norris, the next slowest pitcher in the majors, is nearly two seconds quicker with his delivery to home. Is this a lack of confidence in his stuff, not being on the same page as his catcher or simply a pace slowed by 11 months of rust? There is a lot to be read into the fact that Pelfrey has been holding the ball a lot longer than usual. **** Pelfrey has an extensive list of things that are not going right for him. Lack of command and movement, a noticeably lowered release point, an evolving mound presence and a tempo problem that is wearing down his own defense and spectators have all been reasons why he has struggled so much at the opening of the season. At this point, management is letting him fight through his own issues. That said, with a few more outings like the one against the lowly Marlins, don’t be surprised if Pelfrey is on the outside of the rotation looking in. Click here to view the article

On Saturday, Joel Zumaya, the Twins key bullpen addition of the offseason, prepared to throw live batting practice for the first time in the spring. After 13 pitches, he was headed off the mound and into an MRI machine. News broke on Sunday that the injury, a snapped UCL, would require Tommy John surgery and that it would end his 2012 Comeback Player of the Year campaign, his time with the Twins and, very likely, his career. Because of his extensive history with injuries, this news did not come as a surprise to anyone. General Manager Terry Ryan seemed a bit perplex that it had happened to his UCL, the one area of his body that he has never had an issue with: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] However, based on his mechanics, the result that Zumaya blew out his ulnar collateral ligament should not have been entirely unexpected. Download attachment: Zumaya's elbow.jpg Notice that when he enters his load position, his elbow is pulled up and back away from his shoulder level (the pitcher’s driveline). This arm action has been deemed the “Inverted V” – designated such because of the V-shape a pitcher’s throwing arm makes when in the cocked position (this is different than the more readily known Inverted W in that a pitcher’s glove side arm remains straight). What this does is create improper timing in his delivery thereby putting an increased amount of pressure on his shoulder and elbow. In 2008, Chris O’Leary studied Zumaya’s mechanics and broke down the video clips only to find that this motion indeed throws off his timing. Since then, Zumaya has had shoulder ailments and the exploding elbow cap. On February 20, ESPN1500’s Phil Mackey grabbed some video of the Twins’ new acquisition throwing in the bullpen. The brief clip showed Zumaya with a big reduction in the elevation of his pitching elbow at the cocked position. Download attachment: Zumaya_2.20.jpg At the time, I was optimistic that all of the injuries inspired him to make some changes in his delivery. When Francisco Liriano came back from his Tommy John surgery, he too toned down his arm action. Baseball-Intellect.com posted in April 2008 showing that pre-injury Liriano had significant horizontal loading while bringing his elbow above his shoulder level. Upon his return, he reduced the horizontal loading and would keep his elbow at or below his shoulder level. Whether this was a designed attempt to avoid further injury or simply the post-surgery aftermath limiting his range of motion is unknown. Based on that notion, I thought maybe – just maybe – Zumaya had made some improvements that would keep him on the field a bit longer in 2012. Of course, five days later he would take the mound to throw his first live session of the spring only to leave clutching his elbow. Mackey also captured video of Zumaya warming up for that session. Unfortunately, Zumaya, now clearly pushing closer to max effort which may have been the reason for the lowered loading point from the previous video, unleashed a fastball and the Inverted V arm action was prevalent once again: Download attachment: Zumaya_2.25.jpg The camera angle does not provide a great view but you can see that at this loading point, Zumaya has his elbow well above his shoulder-line, almost to the peak of his head. Now, I am not suggesting that this specific injury occur just because he was throwing with this particular arm action. There are plenty of other factors that played in such as the fact that he was recovering from a past elbow surgery and the UCL could have been in a weakened state. Yet, the years of improper mechanics and rushing through his delivery likely took a toll on the UCL – stretching it out like rubber band – and waited for the right pitch to snap. To be sure, there are split viewpoints from mechanics experts on the effects of the inverted arm motion. Some, like Carlos Gomez – a former Hardball Times writer turned pro scout – and pitching instructor Paul Nyman, have encouraged this practice as they say it adds velocity or helps throw more effective breaking balls. So there may be plenty of people inside baseball who actually view this as a positive in a pitcher – which may or may not be the Twins perspective as well. In addition to Zumaya, the Twins also recently targeted Nationals closer Drew Storen. Understandably, Storen has been wildly successful in his first two seasons in Washington and will remain inexpensive for some time as he stays under club control. On the other hand, Storen’s delivers with the Inverted W arm motion which leaves his open to various injuries. If the Twins were to trade off Denard Span for the closer – as the rumors went last year anyways – they would be trading a valuable player, inexpensive in his own right, for a commodity that has a higher potential to tear up his elbow or shoulder than other pitchers. Download attachment: Storen.jpg This raises the larger question of the influence of mechanics, player acquisition and development. In his book The Extra 2%, Jonah Keri delves into the inner workings of the Tampa Bay Rays organization and how the franchise turned itself from being the league’s laughingstock to a model for other teams. During the massive turnaround, the Rays implemented new practices throughout the business. One area that received a lot of attention was the health of their pitchers from top to bottom in their system. They challenged some of baseball’s well-accepted practices such as limiting rehabbing pitchers to throwing no more than 120 feet while long-tossing and diligently creating individualized pitch counts for developing arms. The results were no short of amazing. From late-2005 through mid-2009, only one pitcher at any level in the system, Jacob McGee, required Tommy John surgery. Part of the credit went to the minor league instructors who created and executed the plan but a significant amount of credit goes to the scouts and front office who found many of these pitchers through the draft or as a free agent signing. In attempting to achieve that extra 2%, Keri writes that the Rays have made some interesting personnel hires for their front office staff, including the likes of Josh Kalk whose expertise in the pitch f/x system has been utilized to potentially spot patterns that may lead to injuries. Given the fact that the Rays hired a guy for what was said to be a “professor’s salary” to track release points, it would be expected that the team probably has a person on staff to monitor mechanics and advises against players like Zumaya who exhibit the traits that could lead to injuries. Admittedly, at $400,000, the Twins had little to lose with their gamble on Zumaya’s recovery. At the same time, because the 2012 budget was extremely tight and the team was limited to just signing just Zumaya as their only right-handed set-up man, the gamble was amplified beyond the fiscal investment. Even without going back to his long list of injuries, the Inverted V provided an additional layer of discomfort when heading into a season relying on a guy for a critical bullpen role. Had the Twins organization been more vigilant of this, they may have opted to sign one of the other bullpen arms instead of Zumaya or, at the very least, one as an insurance policy. Click here to view the article

At last Saturday’s home game against the Tampa Bay Rays the Twins reached the 2 million mark in attendance for the eighth consecutive season. In honor of the milestone, Nick Blackburn went out and tried to distribute home run balls to everyone at the game. Download attachment: Untitled.jpg Blackburn’s recent stint in Rochester was supposed to be the fix. He tinkered with his mechanics and was going to return as the pitcher with better command and good movement on his pitches. To his credit, he did improve his command. After walking 7% of total batters faced prior to the Rochester visit he has grinded that down to 2% since returning (3 walks in 131 match-ups). However, the movement simply has not been there and the sound of hot bat-on-ball action reverberating throughout Target Field during his starts confirms that he still struggling. His two-seam fastball, the one with the supposed sink action, has been obliterated across the field. Opponents are hitting .357/.404/.609 with 13 home runs on that pitch, leading to a “value” of -21.4 runs above average – the worst in baseball among starters who have thrown a minimum of 80 innings. The unfortunate part is that Blackburn chooses to use this pitch 60% of the time. The Twins sent Blackburn to Rochester to straighten some things out and regain confidence. During that time, Blackburn claimed he and pitching coach Bobby Cueller, discovered some differences between his earlier delivery and his contemporary mechanics. The pair worked on quieting his front side and getting his release point higher (which was a fairly similar recommendation found at Twins Daily). Retooled for success, Blackburn was recalled at the end of July but the results with Minnesota have been far from those he posted while in AAA. While in Rochester, Blackburn was able to get his International League opponents to beat the ball into the ground 58% of the time over the course of 21 innings leading to a 2.57 ERA. Meanwhile, since returning to the Twins rotation, Blackburn has only enticed grounders on just 34% of balls in play in 30 innings. As noted above, Blackburn’s release point was noticeably higher in 2009 and 2010. Pitch F/X charts shows that he was throwing more over the top versus the slight drop to three-quarter – even after his return from Rochester (as seen on the right, click to embiggen): Download attachment: Blackburn_two seamer.jpg This has led to a flattening of his two-seam fastball and has given it less pitching arm side (PAS) run (or away from left handed batters and into right handed ones). It has also led to a 1013 OPS against the pitch. Despite the near constant struggles each time out, the Twins still stand behind Blackburn for the future. After his most recent start in which he surrendered three home runs to the Tampa Bay Rays, manager Ron Gardenhire threw his support behind his veteran right-hander on 1500ESPN: Not long after, general manager Terry Ryan confirmed that Blackburn will “be in the mix” for 2013, which, based on Blackburn’s performance the past two seasons, almost directly contradicting the “no-scholarships” policy the front office set forth during spring training - no matter what the contract status was. The 2013 rotation is filled with plenty of vacancies so it is clear that the Twins would like to keep their options open, so giving Blackburn the opportunity to audition the rest of this year for a spot of next year does not hurt anything. But if he continues to issue home runs like jello shots at a frat party, his scholarship should most definitely be revoked. Beginning tonight in Seattle, Blackburn needs to pitch like his scholarship is on the line. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7418983.jpg Sources indicate that the Milwaukee Brewers have now signed pitcher Matt Garza to the tune of four years, $52 million. This is notable for several reasons. The first being that this is a substantial savings from what he was originally projected as being worth going into the free agent season. At Twins Daily, we estimated that Garza would reach five years and $75 million in the Offseason Handbook. Instead, teams shied away from him. The second interesting piece is that this deal is basically the same one that the Twins gave starter Ricky Nolasco earlier in the winter (4 years, $49M + options). Comparatively, Garza, who is a year younger than Nolasco, has had a slightly better career. However according to Fangraphs.com, since 2010, the pair has been surprisingly similar. What you see is that while the raw numbers are very alike, Garza gets better marks for his ERA, xFIP and FIP for spending time in the American League while Nolasco has been in the National League. Of course, one of the biggest concerns of teams making these sizable investments is how a player will hold up over the course of that agreement. In Nolasco’s case, he has been rock solid over his career meanwhile Garza has been in-and-out of infirmaries for arm-related ailments (Nolasco’s have been mainly trunk and thigh). Download attachment: NolascovGarza.png 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson tweeted out today that the Twins were not in pursuit of Garza at the requested four-year rate, sticking firm to a potential two-year deal after signing Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey. Still, the question that will undoubtedly arise from Twins fans is -- should they have targeted Garza instead of Nolasco? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Brunansky.jpg In what is thought of as one of the greatest Simpsons episodes of all-time, nuclear power plant owner turned softball manager, C. Montgomery Burns gave one of his ringers, Daryl Strawberry, an invaluable hitting tip. “You there. Strawberry. Hit a home run,” advised the decrepit hitting instructor. Strawberry took the counsel and smacked a dinger onto the Springfield Expressway. In a perfect world designed by major league hitting coaches, life would be that easy.Certainly, the Minnesota Twins’ newest hitting advisor, Tom Brunansky, would likely agree with that. In reality, hitting coaches have to work with players who have different styles, personalities and needs. There is no “easy button” that fixes mechanics or gets them to recognize what they are doing wrong. Hitting coaches have to surf through a sea of information, digest it and then present it back to the players in a manner which the players can relate to. Brunansky, much like a couple of his students, made the jump from the minors to the majors this year. In the minor leagues, you have buses and Red Roof Inns. In the majors, you have jets and the Four Seasons. Tools for hitting coaches have just as much separation between levels. In the minors, there are no extensive databases of pitch charts to turn to or PitchF/X cameras lining the walls of the single-tiered stadiums in the Eastern League capturing every bit of movement a pitching prospect has. Minor league hitting coaches work on instinct and experience. “Up here it’s a lot about the approaches and not about all the prep work you put into getting ready to do it because there is so much information, there’s so much video, everything you can have to get prepped and ready to go. Lower level, you don’t really have a lot, you just go out and play. Here you can really get a good idea what you’re getting into and set up a pretty good approach and have an idea what a [pitcher’s] got before you face him.” At the major league level, you can have anything you want supplied for you at the ring of a bell. Justin Morneau, before a game, wants to know about every slider that the Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia has thrown to lefties? Brunansky could have in that in charts, numbers, graphs or videos at the snap of the finger. That said, even with all the availability, Brunansky does not overindulge his hitters in the deluge of data and video. It’s not that he is advocating flying blind - it is that it can often be overwhelming. “You can get enough stuff here to choke a cow with,” says Brunansky wryly. “You can get anything you want here. There’s some in-depth stuff. You can get any stat, any number, anything you want to look at. But how does that apply? It’s taking it and seeing the [pitcher] and seeing how he pitches out there and translating all that information and breaking it down and going ‘OK guys.’ These guys don’t want to hear all that garbage. It’s my job to go crazy and decipher all that garbage and say, OK, look, this is what he does.” What about the duty of being the swing repair man? After the first month of the season, Brunansky, it seemed, would have his plate full just getting guys comfortable at the plate. The Twins offense in April was fairly anemic. They completed the month with a .239 batting average, 23 out of the 30 teams, and a .355 slugging percentage, ahead of just the hapless Marlins. Rookie Aaron Hicks was posterized by pitchers. Justin Morneau provided very little punch in the cleanup spot; Ryan Doumit as well. How does a hitting coach retool on the fly during a sport which has about two scheduled off-days a year? Like a pit stop at Daytona, it seems that major league hitting coaches have just a few moments to tinker under the hood with the mechanics, then pat them on their butts and say go get ‘em. For example, Morneau, as was pointed out numerous times by the Twins broadcasters, was pulling his front side open like a screen door in the wind; this left him vulnerable to being pitched away, which flaw teams happily exploited. When the month concluded, Morneau held a middle infielder-esque .253/.309/.379 batting line and fewer extra base hits than he had fingers on his hands. Would Brunansky set Morneau up with a video viewing room much like the one in Kubrick’s Clockwork Orange, holding his eyes open and re-watching his swing until the idea of performing that act would make him violently ill? No, although that would be an interesting technique that an experimental hitting coach should try someday (perhaps in the forward-thinking Rays’ organization). Brunansky’s philosophy revolves around executing a physical feel rather than driving home the appearance. “A lot of that goes to just the feel. And that’s what hitting is anyways. Like anytime you play the game – it’s feel. You want guys to not really dwell on what they look at, it’s what they feel. And feel is easy to replicate, the look is tough. You can see something that looks like it needs a mechanical change in the swing and we’ll go try to implement it in the cage or on the field with the rest of the team, but it is feel that is easy to replicate and take that back into a game.” Likewise, the season snowballed quickly out of control for Hicks in the early going. After one month of play Hicks was staring at a .356 OPS and had struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances. Many openly wondered if he would benefit from additional seasoning in Rochester. Would it even be possible to correct course at this level? How do you straighten out a player like that on the fly? Brunansky says it goes back to reintroducing the feel of hitting, getting hitters like Hicks and others scuffling back to the point in the batting cage and drills where they have a fundamentally sound swing. Dozens of at bats may go by without reaping the benefits of the changes but the message is that the coach would like to see the seeds of success sown during prep time. “It’s not so much that it is ‘to take effect on the field’,” says Brunansky. “It is more or less ‘to take effect in the cage’. That’s all I look for. Look for replication in the cage, the feel in the cage and take it on the field for BP. And then after that I don’t them to think, I don’t want them to do anything. I want them to set the approach for the guy that they’re facing and the situation that they are in and trust what they did. If it works, it works. If it doesn’t, you have a [bad] swing. Heck with it. We go back to work.” Has Brunansky’s influence been a factor in the offensive resurgence in May? Obviously there are plenty of reasons for a significant rise in performance in a small period of time – some of that begins and ends with Joe Mauer. Yet the Twins find themselves with a .272 average in May, ninth-best in baseball, with a much improved .449 slugging percentage, fifth-best of the month so far. Individually, those struggling in the first month have rebounded nicely. Hicks has vastly reduced the number of strike outs and has put the ball in play with some power. Morneau is hitting .375. Doumit is slugging .500. It is nearly impossible to separate Brunansky’s contributions from the player’s talent, but this month they are working well in tandem. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Liriano.jpg I have stated for some time that I believe Francisco Liriano’s greatest impediment to success is his erratic mechanics. One can argue that he may be struggling mentally but that would be a chicken-and-egg argument – is he getting down on himself because his inconsistent delivery or is his delivery out of whack because he is in his own head? Either way, getting him back to a consistent base in his mechanics would likely alleviate the mental side of his game. However, Liriano’s second biggest barrier to success – or perhaps issue 1B – is his inability to retire right-handed batters regularly. On Tuesday night, he made strides towards improving in both areas. Last month, I highlighted Liriano’s delivery issues in that he was failing to remain over his front leg and, far too often, pulling off to the third base side. This wreaked havoc on his ability to control his pitches, particularly his two-seam fastball which ran too far to the pitcher’s hand side of the zone and into the left handed batter’s box. From Angels Stadium’s off-set center field camera, we were not able to get a clear view of whether or not he remained over his front leg but FSN analyst Roy Smalley raved about how he was “stacked” better, which was essentially the crux of my analysis. Two things jump out from the Pitch F/X data which may confirm Smalley’s assessment: His fastball location was significantly better, throwing it for a strike a season-high 63% of time, and his slider was much crisper, getting a swing-and-miss 25% of the time, also a season-high. The latter stat, his slider’s performance, also carries into addressing Liriano’s pitching issue 1B. Retiring righties is a serious matter for Liriano as opposing managers have figured out that he struggles mightily against them. Prior to last night’s game, managers have allowed Liriano the platoon advantage in just 15% of his match-ups, the second-lowest behind Baltimore’s Brian Matusz. What’s more is after the Angels slotted all right-handed hitters to face him on Tuesday night, Liriano is likely to move ahead of Matusz as the pitcher with the least amount of advantageous match-ups. Liriano had become all too enamored with his changeup when facing right-handed opponents. Through his first four starts he would throw his change to righties as 25% of his pitch mix. This was not too far off his pace from the 2011 season in which he threw righties changeups 26% of his pitch distribution. However, so far into the 2012 season, the old standard of leaning on his changeup was not producing results – after all, his .474 weighted On Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed batters was a baseball-high and he had walked 10 and struck out 10. Liriano took steps to remedy his right-handed problem on Tuesday by easing up on the slow stuff and exchanging it for more sliders. In his first four starts, Liriano threw at least 13 changeups, maxing out at 25 against the Rays in his most recent start. In Anaheim, Liriano deployed just three changes to an Angels lineup featuring all right-handed batters. (Unfortunately, one wound up a Torii Hunter home run.) Instead, the Twins erratic lefty mixed in more fastballs and sliders. Tuesday night’s pitch distribution was much more consistent with his 2010 methods in which he would throw 40% fastballs and 30% sliders to righties rather than the 47% fastballs and 25% changeups he was throwing prior to the start this year. And it was not just that he threw sliders, it was that he had success with sliders. Compared to the rest of the year, Liriano’s slider has been far from the devastating whiff machine it had been in 2010. That year, he missed bats at the rate of 23%. Even last year he was getting hitters to miss at 21% of his sliders. This year, it had dropped to 15%. Download attachment: Lirianos Slider.jpg Liriano went to work attempting to improve that number by getting swing-and-misses on seven of his 28 thrown, his best rate of the season thus far. Part of what made his slider effective on Tuesday was regaining his mechanical base as well as being able to locate his fastball for a strike. Following the game, he sounded satisfied in his overall performance in spite of shouldering the loss: Don’t misunderstand: Liriano has a long road back to becoming a contributing member of the Twins rotation; however, Tuesday’s start should be viewed as a positive step towards turning things around. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: IMG_1515.jpg Fresh off his "Destination Wetting", Twins Daily's Parker Hageman dispatches No Juice Podcast co-host Dan Anderson to spend time at the Twins' Dominican Academy at Baseball City in Boca Chica...on his honeymoon. In recent years, the Twins' facility and the Dominican Summer League have been graced with such Latin American talent as Yangervis Solarte (2006), Josmil Pinto (2007), Oswaldo Arica (2008), Danny Santana (2008) and, of course, Miguel Sano (2010). Dan shares his experience and observations on the players, the academy and how he convinced his new bride to allow him to drive across the island nation to watch baseball. Parker and Dan also discuss the hot Twins topics of the week and they dive into the TwinsDaily.com forum to answer some of the highly debated items on the board. Listen here, on iTunes or Stitcher. Be sure to follow the No Juice Podcast on Twitter and leave us a review on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7421514.jpg Oswaldo Arcia’s rookie season was filled with the expected peaks and valleys that most normal human rookies encounter during their first year of facing the world’s best competition. Offensively, he displayed flashes of unbridled power by depositing home runs to all fields but alternated those moments with stretches of being lost. Over three games in early July, Arcia woofed 11 times in 18 at-bats. In that small sampling, he swung the bat 26 times but managed to put the ball in play just three times (two infield flies and a medium fly to left) while missing 16 times and fouling off seven more. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Sent back to Rochester shortly thereafter – perhaps just for his own sanity’s sake as he seemed ready to snap – Arcia returned to Minnesota in August for the duration of the season and continued to hit the ball hard (when he made contact). Like many overzealous noobies, Arcia struggled to maintain the respectable plate discipline he had worked hard to cultivate while in the minors in 2012. In the bigs, he reverted back to his previous ways and swung harder and more frequently than your parents at the neighbor’s key party in the late 1980’s. There are pros and cons to this approach. First, Arcia thrived in hitter’s counts when he could anticipate the heater. Perhaps because he was an unproven player, the Twins outfielder saw a higher than average number of fastballs when he had the drop on pitchers (70% vs. 62% league average) and he was able to capitalize. Of his 14 home runs, seven came on fastballs when he was ahead in the count. Beyond that, just based on batting average, he was baseball’s best when ahead in the count – his .509 batting average led the game (minimum 50 plate appearances). Skeptics can (rightly) point out that this is a small universe to make any sweeping proclamations; however the takeaway is that in situations Arcia needed to take advantage, he did. The reason that Arcia’s plate discipline numbers were so skewed towards the pitcher’s favor is because, far too often, the pitcher was in the catbird seat. Under those circumstances, he struggled mightily and hit just .160 as pitchers put away the fastball (just 44% of the time) and opened up their repertoire to twirl different offerings past his bat. Visually, we can see how much better Arcia’s swing zone is when he is ahead in the count compared to the vast swath of real estate he tries to cover once he falls behind. It turns into an “Oh my god, here’s strike three coming: Kill it! Kill it!” mentality. Download attachment: Arcia.jpg (via ESPN Stats & Info) There is no question that Arcia’s swing is fundamentally strong. With strong engagement with his lower half (controlled stride, solid hip involvement), his ability to keep his hands in to his body allows him to drive the ball well to all fields, as seen in the example below: Your browser does not support iframes. As Arcia develops his pitch recognition and comprehension skills, the presumption is he will be behind in the count less often as pitchers become more reluctant to throw him anything cherry. If he is able to ignore those out-of-zone pitches, this should allow for him to jump on more of the suitable pitches and deploy his powerful swing. Click here to view the article

Based on what has been seen this spring, if Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire still had hair on top of his head he would likely have scratched himself bald trying to figure out how to score runs with his lineup. For an entire week leading up to the season, it has felt like a broken record (or skipping iPod, or whatever the kids say these days): How is this lineup going to score runs? There has been little demonstration of power before Saturday’s three home run binge. Timely hitting has been off-the-clock. They haven’t even accidentally manufactured runs. The front office members fielding the questions urged patience and downplayed any importance of spring training numbers but the concern is there. “What we’ve done this spring, we’ve seen in the regular season,” Twins assistant GM Rob Antony said in reference to the team’s continuation of the offense’s 2013 scary-bad (in)ability to hit with runners in scoring position that has carried over to this spring. In the final handful of Grapefruit League games, Gardenhire has produced several variations of lineup cards, hoping to generate runs and trying different things he suggested came from the computers “upstairs”. By “upstairs”, the manager was referring to his baseball operations team that has been slowly building influence with and trust from the field general. Jack Goin, the organization’s manager of major league administration and baseball research, says that he and his group have had dialogues with Gardenhire, educating a traditionalist on the modern offensive theories -- such as the importance of having a two-hole hitter with on-base abilities rather than one who is adept at hitting behind the runner, squaring up for bunts or skilled at hit-and-run contact. If implemented, some of these theories could help squeeze a valuable run or two more than the traditional lineups. When asked what in his experience changed that made him more receptive to the game theories, Gardenhire balked at the idea that he did not manage by the numbers. "Believe me, I love to look at numbers,” he said in his Hammond Stadium office. “I’ve always been into numbers, I go with match-ups and all these things, I also believe in a starting lineup trying to put a consistent lineup down. But I use match-ups all the time. I’ve been a little more old school as far as the lineup, one-two-three, that type of thing, they way I grew up playing ball and these things. I see a lot of different lineups nowadays and I’ve been reading into it a little bit more, talking to our people -- it can come up interesting sometimes.” A little over a year ago, his tune was a bit different when it came to generating his lineup. "I've always had the thought a No. 2 guy has to be able to take pitches a little bit," Gardenhire told the St. Paul Pioneer Press last March. "He has to be able to protect the guy on base and be an on-base-percentage guy also so your 3-4-5 guys are getting opportunities." Nevertheless, when last season started Gardenhire came around to the novel concept that getting extra at-bats for his offensive star would be beneficial to his club. Last year, prior to his concussion, Joe Mauer was batting second for 87 games. There, he got on base at a 38.5% clip and scored 52 runs (however, no one behind him was able to drive him in). There are some who believe a player like Mauer, with his robust on-base percentage, is not hitting high enough in the order at two. With his career .405 OBP, he profiles as a dangerous and incessant table-setter. “Joe Mauer leading off?” Gardenhire asked himself the question that he undoubtedly has heard numerous times. “Sure, for a perfect team that’s great. A good team with a solid lineup, Joe Mauer would be a wonderful leadoff hitter but you have to have a lot more hitters in your lineup to let him do something like that. We need him in different roles that just leading off. We need him to drive the ball and all those things. Some lineups it works, some lineups it doesn’t work. Ours? It’s kind of hit and miss.” His concern is merited as the unknowns surrounding what the core of the lineup -- the Josh Willinghams, the Jason Kubels, the Trevor Plouffes -- will be able to contribute are numerous. Likewise for further down the order with Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks. This spring, as was the case in the final warm-up game of the year on Saturday, Gardenhire presented the umpire with a lineup card which had Brian Dozier at the top. The right-handed infielder in his third year of major league ball has been criticized as lacking the requisite OBP of the high caliber leadoff hitters. In 231 games with the Twins, Dozier has posted an OBP of .297, though that figure has grown some as his experience has increased. That notion does not faze Gardenhire. “I’ve had guys in the one-hole before that aren’t on-base guys,” he said. “When I first started managing it was Jacque Jones and, believe me, he wasn’t a leadoff hitter. But he was also a guy who could make it one-to-nothing really quick; Dozier can do that too.” There may be a psychological benefit for getting that early lead but those can be home runs that have not been leveraged to their full potential. Jones hit 20 first inning leadoff home runs in 320 games in his career. Those dingers would probably have been better served if someone was on base ahead of him, say someone who has an over-.400 on-base percentage, right? "You know what? Sometime you go with what you got. Prototype, I don’t have a [Denard] Span-type who takes a lot of pitches, so we took Dozier and I feel comfortable with him. I think he’s going to hit .300 and he can drive the ball too. Stick him in there with Mauer right behind him, that’s two guys who I think will do good together and kind of bunch our hitters together.” While catcher Kurt Suzuki has played a prominent role in the second spot in the order this spring, perhaps feeding Gardenhire’s lingering need to stick to the traditional lineup roles, Mauer figures to see plenty of starts in the two-hole depending on the match-ups. Gardenhire said that the lineup construction is fluid and will be highly dependent on who is hitting well. "It’s wide open, you just move them around,” he said. “As lineups go, if they’re hitting, they’re hitting. I don’t care where you put them when they are hitting. Everybody says stack your best lineups and all of your best hitters but it is good to have balance all the way through your lineups, if you can do that. Yeah we’ve tried a lot of different lineups but ultimately, it gets down to having a bunch of guys together all hitting. When they are doing that, then you are going to say ‘wow, that worked.’" And hitting would certainly silence the critics. “If we get on a hot roll here, which I hope we do right out of the chute, you guys won’t even talk about who is hitting first or second.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Twins Infield.jpg After three straight 90-loss seasons, the Minnesota Twins need a reinvention. While other teams have harnessed analytics to advance their in-game strategies, the Twins remained analog in a digital world. No longer. Not long ago, the notion of “infield shifting” in the Twins dugout may have been a reference to adjusting one’s protective cup. Now, according to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, the Twins and new bench coach Paul Molitor are to join the rest of baseball when it comes to defensive positioning. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “The game has changed so much; we’re seeing more overshifts and people not afraid to give up space based on tendencies, so it’s something I’m excited about learning about and applying to the way we play defense,” Molitor told Bollinger this week. The Twins, who finished in the middle of the pack when it came to using shifts in 2013, may increase the usage this season. With the help of Jack Goin, the manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, and Sean Harlin, the team’s video director, Molitor is looking for an edge. And that edge may include the use of infield shifts. New use of an old trick To be sure, this is certainly not groundbreaking stuff by any means. The idea is to play to a hitter’s tendency by overloading defenders into a zone that a hitter frequents. This methodology, initially known as the Williams Shift, was implemented shortly after World War II by Indians manager Lou Boudreau, who stacked his infielders on the right side when facing Boston’s left-handed hitting Ted Williams. With the advent and dissemination of batted ball data broken down to minutia, forward-thinking teams have been implementing this strategy lately. Last July, Baseball Info Solution’s John Dewan reported that, much like Facebook, everybody and their mothers are doing it. In 2010 the shift was used just 2,465 times. In 2012 it was up to 4,577. Midway through last season, the baseball world was on pace to shift over 7,000 times. At the top of the list for teams who used the shift were teams like Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, generally considered as being the most likely to use statistical analysis. Joining them was the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose defensive efforts were lauded in 2013 and their generous use of the infield shift was at the forefront of items receiving praise. In 2011, Dan Fox -- the team’s Director of Baseball Systems Development and a former Baseball Prospectus contributor -- convinced the organization to sway from baseball convention and embrace playing the odds. The result was a significant swing in defensive efficiency – transforming from Swiss cheese infield to, I don’t know, let’s say a cheese with the ability to make plays up the middle. Issues with the shift? Not all teams see shifting as a net positive. The St. Louis Cardinals, a very well-respected organization, had been a proponent of the shift in 2012. That year manager Mike Matheny said he and front office members reviewed data that showed the advantage of having fielders set up against certain players who have a tendency to hit ground balls or shallow liners in distinct zones 80% of the time or more. However, Matheny’s pitching staff found it was difficult to pitch to that type of alignment in order to make it work. “Last year there were times when we were shifting and I knew [the pitchers] weren’t real comfortable with it,” Matheny told the media last August. “No matter what I believe, we can talk to guys about the importance and show them the statistics, but if they don’t feel comfortable with how the defense is aligned behind them, we’re wasting our time.” Meanwhile, the Oakland A’s newest closer and ground ball aficionado, Jim Johnson, who was a member of the shift-happy Orioles last year, found that the overuse made little sense. “It’s fine on certain guys, but I think sometimes it gets a little carried away,” Johnson remarked last season. “Trying to do things just to do things, you know. If you’re shifting on a number 8 hitter, just because [the numbers] say he grounds out to the right side, and you’ve got a guy throwing 99mph that he’s probably not going to turn around, then why are you shifting?” Pitchers are not the only ones who believe that the shift has shortcomings that may outweigh the positives. In 2012 Bill James penned a piece that suggested there are too many unstudied, undocumented occurrences that happen because of the shift that make it problematic and possibly detrimental. Those include: Lost opportunities during foul pops on the right side of the infield because a third baseman is moved,Missed double play opportunities because fielders are out of position,And missed relays because fielders are out of position, among others.Teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh, who have taken measures to implement the shift strategy system-wide so that fielders are used to playing in a shift, may be equipped to handle those scenarios but a team like the Twins (who may or may not begin to incorporate more shifts in 2014) could find those moments causing more headaches than relieving them. This year, James also prophesized that the days of the shift are numbered and that once ego-driven sluggers begin to recognize that they could bat .700 by simply laying down a bunt (or a bunt double like Robinson Cano did), teams will no longer find giving up hits carte blache to be a worthwhile strategy. Is there a tangible advantage? Then there is the question of exactly how much does the shift improve a team’s ability to convert grounders in outs. As it stands, Baseball Info Solutions believes that teams like the 2013 Pirates were given a 2-win advantage because of their use of the shift. Of course, what James argues is that BIS’s system does not account for those mishaps and missed opportunities. At the end of the day, the top shift addicts were marginally better than teams like the Twins and Cardinals who it used more recreationally when it came to turning ground balls into outs. Download attachment: Chart.png The 2013 data from ESPN/trumedia shows that the average major league team recorded outs on 77.3% of ground balls. While teams like the Pirates and Orioles scored very high by the Out-of-Zone metric (plays made by fielders out of the typical zone of that position which - surprise - is what happens when you shift a lot) and made their Ultimate Zone Ratings look good, the benefits were negligible compared to the Twins and Cardinals who did not use the shift. The Twins were very strong on the second base/first base side (represented by the Right/Far Right from the batter’s perspective) and based on Mauer’s athletic abilities, there stands a chance that first base should be improved defensively in 2014. Where the Twins lagged greatly last year was the defense up-the-middle: For example, while the shifty Pirates recorded outs on an MLB-best 64.9% of grounders hit in the middle of the diamond, the Twins struggled to defend that turf (which has been a long-standing problem). Could infield shifting improve the out conversion rate for the Twins? Playing the tendency and shifting does not always translate into a complete overload of the right or left side of the diamond either. The Twins recently hired Sam Perlozzo to handle the minor league infielders, the role vacated by Paul Molitor when he was promoted, and Perlozzo’s former job in Philadelphia was positioning the infielders. Although the Phillies did not use the overload shift, Perlozzo told reporters in 2012 that he will use the data to position his fielders, but it may not mean the shortstop is swinging all the way around the horn. While Molitor begins to play the odds at the major league level, Perlozzo will likely try to establish similar techniques at the lower levels. Will it work? If Baseball Info Solutions’ assessment of the effects of the infield shifts proves accurate, the Twins may be able to claim wins at the margins. With three 90-loss seasons, trying anything different is a good thing. Click here to view the article

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical. Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010. Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million. Download attachment: Zumaya_Velocity.jpg As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment. After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape. Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012. If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season. This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Doumit.jpg In their efforts to repair the damage of three straight 90-loss seasons, the Twins front office acted decisively this offseason. And, sure, maybe part of this decisive plan was to steal an idea from the Blues Brothers and get the band back together, adding a name that (at the very least) will remind fans of happier times. Following a two year hiatus of not [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]having a player named Jason Kubel on the roster, Terry Ryan rectified that by signing one to a minor league deal. In his time away from the organization, Kubel had a solid 2012 with Arizona but a fall-off-the-face-of-the-earth 2013 season saw him get cut from the Diamondbacks and finish the year in Cleveland. The offensive slide stems from a lack of contact, specifically when facing fastballs, and injuries likely played a factor in that decline. The Twins are making the bet that Kubel can rebound from the atrocity he committed last season. While Kubel’s deal comes with no guarantee he will see time in Minnesota, the free agent told sources that he felt he had a better opportunity to play with the Twins than with another team which offered a major league deal. Because Kubel will conceivably fill the role of left-handed outfielder/designated hitter in the lineup, Ryan Doumit’s role was marginalized. Doumit, who also had a solid 2012 but a far worse 2013 season, said that because of concussions and age, he was less interested in catching and wanted to spend more time in another position. The Twins now had a cheaper version of Doumit in Kubel. This redundancy on the roster allowed the Twins to pursue a trade of Doumit. The Braves, in need of a catcher/outfielder, traded their system’s fourth-best prospect, left-handed starter Sean Gilmartin. Furthermore, if projection systems are in any way reliable (they are not) Fangraphs.com’s Oliver projection suggests that Kubel (.724 OPS) will slightly outperform Doumit (.710) offensively. In theory the swap gives Minnesota added depth at the high-end of the minor leagues, saves $500,000 in Doumit’s salary and gives the potential for greater production on the major league team. More Top '13 Stories: #13 - Twins in the WBC#12 - Drew Butera Traded Click here to view the article