Parker Hageman

Download attachment: USATSI_7922433.jpg I do not believe it is too hyperbolic to say that Phil Hughes is the greatest pitcher alive. That may be a bit extreme but it has been so long since the Minnesota Twins have been able to pencil a strong candidate into the rotation that you forget what a good pitcher smells like. (Answer: Good pitchers smell like Cy Young Awards -- a combination of polished chrome, rich mahogany and saddlewood). OK, so a Cy Young this year is a stretch considering he has to rely on a stagnant Twins offense to score runs in order to continue to accumulate wins that the voters love so dearly, and the Yankees have a pitcher named Masahiro Tanaka who is doing unforgivable things to other teams, but at least for the first-half of the 2014 season Hughes has been pitching and putting his name in the conversation. So far, he is in the top 25 of pitchers in notable categories including WHIP (13th), K/BB ratio (2nd) and walks per nine innings (1st). And, if for some reason MLB decided to throw out the stats from the first month of the season, Hughes’ ERA of 2.17 would be the fifth-best in baseball. When the Twins signed Hughes this offseason, there was the belief he would improve his numbers simply by not having to pitch at Yankee Stadium. In reality, his numbers have been improved not just because of the bigger ballpark but because of an overhaul in his approach. Reports from Florida was that with the help of Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson Hughes was going to rekindle his relationship with his curveball that he roundly ignored in 2013. During spring training, he paid extra attention to improving the pitch, attempting to keep it from being spotted coming out of his hand. In short, this season he was going to ride back into Strikeout Town on a horse named Uncle Charlie with guns a-blazing (bang, bang). That, however, has not played out that way. Hughes is having a marvelous season but it has little to do with his curveball being a knee-breaking offering. He has incorporated the curveball slightly more than last year but it is not used in the same capacity. Last season, as Hughes told me this past March, he mainly used his curve in first-pitch situation as a get-me-over pitch. This season not only does he rarely spin it to start a count but because of the significant difference in velocity, he is using it more as a substitute for his changeup (which, along with his slider, has been shelved). What makes Hughes’ curveball valuable is that it has sped up his already impressive fastball. With a near 17-mph velocity difference between it and his fastball, turning on the heater has proven difficult for hitters this year. According to ESPN/trumedia, after pulling the ball 32% of the time from 2009 to 2013 opponents have turned on it just 23% of the time (the lowest among qualified starters). So if it is not his curveball creating all the strikeouts, what is? That would be his cutter. The cutter, the slider’s cousin, has been used more frequently as of late across baseball. According to a recent Providence Journal, Boston Red Sox pitchers have turned to cutters as a way of confusing hitters. Their theory is that the shorter, quick break generates more swings at pitches out of the zone that the looping curve or the tilting slider. It looks like a fastball and has late break. It is because of this pitch that Hughes has been successful against left-handed hitters. From 2009 to 2013, lefties had posted a 861 OPS while mainly facing his curve and change as secondary pitches. With a transition to the cutter as his secondary pitch, this season he has kept left-handed at bay with a 527 OPS, the fifth best rate among qualified starters. What makes the cutter effective against left-handed batters is the ability to spot it on the outer-half, using it as a backdoor pitch on two-strike counts. Hughes has registered 42 strikeouts of left-handers this season, 21 of which have been looking. Of those 21, 18 were on his cutter. Below is an ESPN/trumedia heat map of the cutter’s location on those 18 caught-looking strikeouts which demonstrates Hughes’ ability to expand the strike zone on the outside. Download attachment: strike-zone (24).png In last night’s start, Hughes froze Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava on this pitch: http://i.imgur.com/hUtvBWn.gif The cutter comes out of Hughes’ hand at a velocity much like his fastball (89 mph compared to 92 on the fastball), but rather than residing up in the zone like his fastball, he keeps the cutter down in the zone -- helping change a hitter’s eye level as well. With the last second tail and Hughes’ precision placement, lefties appear hopeless against the pitch. Beyond his arsenal, it is his overwhelming ability to attack the strike zone that has positioned him well. As noted above, Hughes’ walk rate is the best in baseball and he also leads starters with getting ahead in the count. On the first pitch, Hughes leads baseball with a 66% zone rate (average is just slightly higher than 50%) and he continues to push to two-strikes quickly. This puts hitters on the defensive and gives him a sizable advantage. Phil Hughes is having an outstanding rebound season but not because of the reasons people initially thought. The inclusion of his cutter combined with his world-conquering strike zone dominance has elevated Hughes’ into a top-of-the-rotation starter that was once predicted for him in New York. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: logo.jpg On this week's episode of The No Juice Podcast, Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson ventured to KSTP studios to talk to one of the Twin Cities' hardest-working media members, Darren Wolfson. On the night that Labron James announced his intentions of returning to Ohio, Wolfson provided his plugged-in insights on what that means to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Kevin Love. Wolfson also shares information on the impending trade deadline and what that means for the Minnesota Twins. Other topics with Parker and Dan include the All-Star Weekend, Home Run Derby Happy Hours, and TV awards. Listen below, on iTunes or Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #13 - DARREN WOLFSON Click here to view the article

Download attachment: logo.jpg Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson got together to talk about the Twins' latest heart-wrenching road trip, the fiasco in the outfield, and who Jorge Polanco's career has started off like. They discussed soccer and World Cup trolling. Then they had the Idea to End All Ideas when they came up with a Kickstarter campaign. Listen -- below, on iTunes or Stitcher -- and enjoy. NO JUICE PODCAST - EPISODE #11 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aerial 2.jpg Player development facilities have come a long way from the days of Branch Rickey and his infamous sliding pits. With numerous organizations moving into new or renovated complexes, the Minnesota Twins are trying to avoid being left behind. On Thursday, the Twins began construction on updating their spring campus. David Dorsey of the News Press highlights the progress of the Lee County Sports Complex: The addition of the minor league player academy is a solid investment for the team’s future. As other organizations either add on to their existing spring training facilities or built new ones altogether, Hammond Stadium and the Lee County Sports Complex were falling behind the times. For example, while Boston’s recently completed Jet Blue Stadium complex had seven complete fields the Lee County Sports Complex had just five. When Jet Blue opened the fields along with their state-of-the-art training facilities, it was deemed as a significant “competitive advantage” for the team’s player development system by Boston’s COO Sam Kennedy. Furthermore, with the game’s continued international growth, the new on-site dormitories should give foreign-born players an easier transition into the new culture and game rather than having to live away from the training area. The Pirates, who train up the gulf coast in Bradenton, completed a similar project at their famed training site, Pirate City. Renovated in 2008, Pittsburgh’s on-site dormitories have 75 player rooms and make it mandatory for all players in Minor League camp to live in one of the dorm rooms. Meanwhile Hammond Stadium, the home of both the Twins and Fort Myers Miracle, is also getting a much needed face lift. The Twins have also requested that the field’s dimensions be changed to match the geometry of Target Field – which means large power alleys and a few more feet added to the left-center field area. This should help the evaluation process and prepare the players better for the conditions experienced at the major league level rather than watching towering flies that would normally be caught drift over the outfield wall. Overall, the expansion focuses on the on-field product however there is plenty that will elevate the game day experience for the legions of fans who make the trip to southwest Florida. Beyond the outfield walls, the Twins plan to add a right field party deck (rendering below) as well as a boardwalk that circles the field, similar to the one that the Pirates constructed at their Bradenton, Florida facilities. Likewise, the metal bleachers will be converted to conventional seat-backs. In all, the stadium will increase capacity to 9,300, which is still several thousand less the Red Sox and the new Cubs’ spring training home. Download attachment: outfield group deck 1.jpg The current configuration of Hammond has a significant stair climb to the main concourse level. During much of spring training, this area has been highly congested because of the small walkways made even smaller with concession stands and a popular retail shop. The expansion plans, Dorsey writes, will eliminate the gift shop and open up a view of the field for those arriving up the flight of stairs. Additional restrooms will be installed and concession areas will be expanded to accommodate for the increasing spring crowds. While a substantial portion of the bill is being paid by Lee County, for the new improvements the Twins will have the Red Sox to thank. Based on a clause in their 2004 lease agreement, the talks of expanding the Lee County Sports Complex and Hammond Stadium began when the Boston Red Sox relocated from City of Palms Park to Jet Blue Stadium. As accordance to the agreement between Lee County and the Minnesota Twins, the club had the right to request and construct improvements that have been “approved or constructed by the County in any other spring training facility to which the County is an owner or lessor” as is the case with Jet Blue Stadium. The entire project should be completed by 2015. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: TommyJohn.jpg This week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode featured a newly married Parker Hageman from Twins Daily filling in as co-host and topics included Miguel Sano needing Tommy John elbow surgery and what it means for his future, Johan Santana's sad comeback, Josmil Pinto's weight issues, technical difficulties, Bud Lights vs. Old Fashioneds, cop listeners, the history of Tommy John surgery, over/under 70.5 wins in 2014, Florida weddings, and being way too explicit. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Ball.jpg Who IS This Guy? At six-foot-six and just 175 pounds, 18-year-old Trey Ball from New Castle High School in Indiana has an extremely projectable frame, one that experts agree will fill out nicely as he matures. Opinion, however, appears split between where he should play: pitcher or outfielder. Who Could He Be? The majors have few left-handed power arms whose fastballs average in the mid-90's. Tampa’s David Price, Texas’ Derek Holland and Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw are members of a rare breed who can dial up that kind of velocity from the port-side. Because of that, Ball’s immediate future may be as a pitcher. In 2012, during the Area Code games, Ball was averaging 92 with his fastball but peppered in a slow curve at 74. This year, at times, he was reaching upwards of 96. If he is able to maintain the arm speed and release spot with both pitches, the discrepancy could be downright criminal. Kershaw has struck out 67 batters in 64 innings this year thanks to the same variation between his fastball and huge hook. Landing a Kershaw-like arm would be a phenomenal get for the Twins. On the other hand, if things should go awry with his pitching development, Ball’s positional skills are highly thought of as well. Because of his big arm, his future in the field would most likely be as a right fielder. At the plate, Ball’s abilities and style have reminded MiLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo of Shawn Green. Green displayed 30+ home run power at the peak of his career, something that Ball may be capable of once he adds some muscle. It should be noted that Ball has been playing his senior year using a wood bat instead of a metal bat with which he could put up ridiculous video game-type numbers. His decision to challenge himself speaks well for his overall makeup. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? It’s never easy with pitchers. The Twins have had several of their high profile selections (Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, etc.) require major surgery which sidetracked their path to the majors. The adage “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect” applies. Still, Ball’s mechanics are relatively clean, his arm action is good and -- judging from the available game footage of him online -- his delivery looks fairly repeatable for a tall, lanky pitcher. One area that may take some polishing is his breaking ball. To avoid any injury to his arm in his formative years, Ball’s father would not allow him to throw a curve, rather focusing on a changeup – which is a plus pitch for him and one of the more difficult pitches to develop later on (just ask Vance Worley). This edict meant Ball only last year began throwing curves and reports are that while the movement is good, the consistency is not quite there. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… On the whole, drafting hard-throwing high school southpaws has not been a great return-on-investment for major league clubs. Back in 2007, the Hardball Times published a study that showed as a group, high school power-armed lefties had an extremely poor track record of making it past Double-A within six years of the draft. Between 1996 and 2000, just 25% of those drafted made it past Double-A. The theory is that talent evaluators focus too much on the hard-throwing arm and overlook some of the other faults of the player. Could selecting Ball result in the same disappointment as with a large percentage of high school lefties before him? If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… OK, so hard-throwing high school lefties are a big risk. So what? They are also a big reward if you hit on one. Mid-90's chucking lefties are hard to come by. Ball’s skill set, too, presents a unique, built-in safety net in the event that he does flame out as a pitcher. Previous Twins Daily Draft Profiles: Monday, May 20 - Sean Manaea, SP Tuesday, May 21 - Austin Meadows, OF For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter! Click here to view the article

With a bullpen that is holier than the Pope, the Twins have been hosting an audition with many of their arms this spring hoping to fill some of the openings. Many of the early front-runners have likely exited the race early. Some, like Joel Zumaya, had the misfortunate of being bounced out due to injury. Others, like Terry Doyle and Jason Bulger, have just failed to perform. As a lot of the field continues to falter for one reason or another, Kyle Waldrop has emerged as a potential candidate to head north with the club. After coming up through the system working as a starter, Waldrop has made a quick ascension to the upper level since being converted to a reliever. Recently dispatched into short-term work, he has thrived by throwing an impressive sinker that has damaged infield turf all over the minor leagues. In 2010, his first season at the Triple-A level, 64 percent of opponents’ batted balls were of the ground-ball variety. This past year, he upped his ground ball rate to 66 percent at Rochester and, in his brief September call-up, he was inducing grounders at a 75 percent clip with the Twins. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]So far this spring, Waldrop and ground-ball-riffic ways has made quite the impression on the coaching staff and teammates. According to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, following a cage session against the righty, Danny Valencia finished and told reporters that he has “late, heavy sink” which makes it tough to elevate the ball. Many ground ball pitchers seem to share this description from opponents, coaches and scouts alike. It seems more baseball speak than actually explaining why hitters are having troubles putting the ball in the air against him. Let’s take a look at Waldrop and see what factors into him becoming a ground ball monster. Following yet another clean outing in Fort Myers, manager Ron Gardenhire said of Waldrop “I think he just gets outs. He works quick and gets outs with a good angle.” Despite not dripping with much insight, Gardenhire’s assessment may have more to do with understanding how he is accomplishing this scorched-earth policy. The six-foot-five Waldrop has an excellent release point. In his major league debut last year, the Sportsvision’s pitch f/x camera system says that, on average, he released his pitches at six feet, seven inches high. Download attachment: Waldrop_Release Point.jpg That is a very high release point. To put that in perspective, Jon Rauch, baseball’s tallest indivudual at six-foot-ten, releases his pitches at six feet, seven-and-a-half inches high. In Ted Williams’ The Science of Hitting, published well before the avent of pitch f/x in 1970, the legendary hitter wrote that the majority of pitches are released somewhere between five feet, eight inches and six feet, six inches. Using that as a guideline, both Waldrop and Rauch are clearly above average in that department. Although they both share similar release points, the trajectory of their pitches favors Waldrop. Whereas Rauch’s came in at two feet, five inches on average, close to thigh high and in the middle third of the zone, Waldrop’s average pitch came in at two feet, two inches high – about slightly above the knee and in the lower third of the strike zone. Now this is the type of “downward plane” action that gets Bert all hot and bothered in the booth. More importantly, it is what makes hitters all hot and bothered. With that kind of fall and that kind of location, hitters have little choice but to hit the top half of the baseball, driving it into the ground. Yes, a strike out results in an out 100% of the time while a ground ball turns into an out roughly 76% of the time, however, neither can clear the fence on the fly and grounders do have a difficult time turning into extra base hits. Lacking the velocity (hitting 88.9 miles per hour on average) or the whiff-inducing breaking stuff, Waldrop has not gathered a ton of strike outs like most conventional prospective relief pitchers. Instead, he’s just keeping them from hitting it in the air – the next best thing. And that is his blueprint for success. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: dick bremer bert blyleven.jpg With the exception of one seasons in the early 1980s, Dick Bremer’s rich, jovial voice has been the definitive sound of summer for Minnesota Twins fans in the Upper Midwest since 1983. His professionalism, knowledge and ability to entertain a wide audience for many years are the reasons the Minnesota Broadcasters Hall of Fame recently selected him for induction. This honor, without question, was well deserved. It is interesting to think about how the ways people watch and understand the game of baseball have changed from his first days on the job. Back then the bulk of statistical analysis was being done covertly using computers the size and weight of a Kenmore dishwasher (and presumably in mom’s basement). In the same year Bremer began his Twins broadcasts, Bill James released the 1983 Baseball Abstract. In it he summarized the common understanding of the game by writing that the walk was greatly undervalued as an offensive weapon and that it was viewed as a “random result of being at bat when a pitcher is stricken with control trouble” rather than a skill. In that same book, James wondered why baseball fans at that time focused so much on end results, like wins and losses for pitchers, the RBI instead of the men who got on base to create the opportunity, and so on. “If the food is good,” wrote James, “you tip the waitress. Sabermetricians are an odd lot. We always want to know what the recipe was.” That’s the best definition I have ever heard for statistical analysis. Statistical analysis of baseball is wanting to know the recipe. Since then, the publication of Moneyball and the rise of websites like Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have given a broader appeal and deeper understanding of statistical analysis to baseball fans. The knowledge of and access to what is in the recipe has grown tenfold. On the mainstream side, thirty years have passed and baseball’s broadcasters are still wrestling with how – of even if – they should communicate these findings to their audience. While there are some markets which have included some of the principles in their broadcasts, Minnesota has not been one of them. Twins’ radio broadcaster Cory Provus suggested that his medium is not designed to be able to properly inform without the visuals to drive it home. How about television? Dick Bremer shares his thoughts: How do you see advanced stats as it relates to broadcast today? “Stats have mushroomed into a completely different stratosphere. They call it “broadcasting” because you have to include as many people as you can. I think the new math in baseball tends to exclude a lot of people because a lot of people don’t comprehend it…yet. As we move forward, it will become more and more a part of the lexicon of baseball and it will be incorporated more into the broadcast.” Should broadcasters discuss some of the statistical analysis and advanced metrics most teams use in some capacity for roster-building? “I think it is getting to that point, I don’t know if it is quite there yet because I don’t know if our average viewer knows what WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is. When it gets to that point, then I think that our broadcast and other broadcasts will find it more mainstream subject matter to talk about. I just don’t think it is there yet. If we came on with Batting Average On Balls In Play, for instance, I think our audience – a significant portion of it – still would be, well, what’s that mean as opposed to batting average? Batting average is easy to explain though it is not the ideal stat to determine a hitter’s value in a lineup, but that’s something that everyone can comprehend. We still are in the business of trying to include people and not exclude them." How have the numbers, stats and analysis changed in over your career in the broadcast booth? “When I started this each team produced one sheet, front and back, for their press box. Now it’s five and you get the stat pack which is twenty-some pages and that doesn’t even begin to tell you the numbers you are speaking of, you know, what a player’s Wins Above Replacement is. That doesn’t even touch that and that is still so much more numerical information then we can give in a broadcast.” Television is a medium that gives the opportunity to put visuals of stats on the screen. “When we started giving more and more on the screen, the internal debate among play-by-play guys was now do we still need to give the count? Or do we mention that there are two outs? Or can people see the two dots on the screen? I think the consensus among most play-by-play guys is that we still need to do it because people are doing other things and they’re not locked in on the screen studying everything like some people are but most people are not so you still have to do the basics. Now, if information is given on the screen, the question is maybe the announcer should give other information then what we have to watch for is it becoming a mass of numbers. Even before sabermetricians became more common in baseball that was our great concern: What are we doing on television? We can do some things on TV that they cannot do radio. But are we giving people too many numbers? If you put up a screen full of numbers then you need to leave it on the screen so people can go ‘Ok, alright, ok I get it, this is what they are trying to say’ well then you are not watching the game.” Len Kasper and the Chicago Cubs WGN broadcasts do a regular Stats Sunday feature to discuss the concepts to the fans. Could you see FSN doing something similar? “Absolutely, to educate people, which is what we try to do and is one of our functions - to educate people about how the game is played and how decisions are made by people in the front office – absolutely I can see that happening. It hasn’t happened yet and maybe it is something that, to Len’s point, we should be adapting to or including in our broadcast. Anything that adds to or enhances the enjoyment of the game, that’s our job.” You’ve been broadcasting with the Twins since before the Moneyball area. Have you noticed many changes in the game? “Since then, you’ve seen it everywhere; you’ve seen it in the Twins organization. People are far more aggressive in analyzing the game mathematically. I think most baseball executives still need the new math to pass the eye test – what they see on the field. Are there numbers that support this? One thing that I saw years ago was that Wins Above Replacement was suggesting that Alexi Casilla was a really good middle infielder. I don’t know if anyone who saw him play the game believed that but yet you can find numbers out there that supported that. There’s been a change in that direction, there’s no question, and where it will lead I don’t know, but you still need scouts’ eyes and general managers’ eyes to see what the numbers might support." How about having an analyst dedicated to talking about the statistical side of the game in the broadcast? “If baseball’s new math becomes more mainstream, yeah, and it might very well be heading in that direction. What we have to do as broadcasters though is not talk over the heads of too many people and to the extent that most of our audience does not want to or can’t comprehend baseball’s new math, how much time would we spend trying to educate them over the course of an evening’s broadcast? What is Wins Above Replacement? I hate to keep using that one but that’s actually one of the more elementary ones in terms of explaining what it means. We’re still wondering once or twice a year if we should explain the Infield Fly Rule.” Click here to view the article

The Twins have signed 28-year-old Chris Colabello to a minor league deal. Colabello, a corner infielder for Worcester of the Can-Am League, hit .348/.410/.600 with 20 home runs in 412 plate appearances. That performance earned Colabello Baseball America's title of Indy League MVP. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Perkins.jpg Before the opener on Monday morning, Glen Perkins sat at his locker, lacing up a new pair of cleats. His locker’s location – one of four corner spots in the spacious clubhouse reserved for the pillars of the team like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, a spot that once was home to Joe Nathan’s garb – is standing as a reminder of his status with the team. It is hard to envision now but not long ago it appear that his time in the Twins organization was nearing an end. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ineffectiveness, followed by a shoulder injury and topped with a semi-contentious battle regarding his arbitration status left him seeming like a pariah with the team. To observers, the left-hander who had grown up on the eastern edges of the Twin Cities and developed in the heart of Minneapolis for the Gophers looked to be on borrowed time. However, a switch to the bullpen combined with good health and a shift in his mental approach resuscitated his career with the Twins. And now? Now, he is one of the best relievers in the game. He won the organization’s Good Guy Award this past winter. He has a multi-year contract. He has been asked to play with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He has a 5K which he and his wife organize, Fifteen’s 5K, which raises money to benefit Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. He’s got nearly 16,000 followers on Twitter where his interactions range from telling someone the best way to prepare meat for the smoker to joshing that he switching from his current agent to Dwight Yoakam, in response to Robinson Cano’s switch to CAA that is partnered with Jay-Z. Plus - oh man - that coveted corner locker. There’s no question he is embraced in Minnesota. Over the past few years, the pitcher had become more analytical and thinking more about his craft, using sabermetric theories and tools as he wields the ball. Perkins says he has digested the information and ideas to add another level his game. Approaching a player and raising some timely statistical analysis is not a new shtick. In 2010, ESPN broadcaster Jon Sciambi wrote about his rather humorous encounter with Chipper Jones. The gist of it is Sciambi had presented Jones with some new data that the surefire Hall of Fame third baseman was not aware of: Jones had seen the fewest first-pitch strikes in the league. Sciambi wanted to know why the great hitter still swung at a high amount of first pitches seen. The data surprised Jones to the point where he circulated the findings around the clubhouse. The rest of the team, meanwhile, appeared well aware of this phenomenon. In a similar fashion Perkins, who was lacing up his fresh field kicks and readying himself for a new season of baseball, was asked if he was familiar with a recent study on Fangraphs.com. The piece studied Pitchf/x data for pitchers who had the highest percentage of pitches taken in the strike zone but was called balls. As the game’s foremost victim of squeezing, Cleveland’s Justin Masterson received the primary attention but Perkins was informed that he could find his name within the top ten as well. “So that obviously means I’m getting screwed,” Perkins replied a bit quizzically after being presented with the study’s synopsis. Well, yeah, by some measurements. The bulk of the data for the research was collected while Perkins was a starting pitcher, over 44 starts between 2007 and 2010. Still, that carried over into his first year as a full-time reliever. According to StatCorner.com’s data, in 2011, when opponents did not swing at in-zone pitches – those that are inside the strike zone as measured by Pitchf/x cameras – were called for a ball a whopping 25.7% of the time. By comparison, the rest of the league averaged 16.7%. A quarter of all pitches that should have been called strikes not being called strikes two years ago? Did the Perkins notice any of this? “To be honest with you, I feel like I get a pretty good zone. I mean, I throw in and I feel like there are some times when I get the pitches off the plate. I don’t feel like they are tight on me,” said Perkins. “I feel like my slider gets squeezed. Like I throw some on the inner half to righties that a catcher and it will be an inch or two in off the plate and that those catch the corner, the front corner of the plate, and sometimes I just don’t get those. That’s mainly it.” The speculation regarding his slider probably has some traction. After all, that cuts across the zone rather quickly, often making a catcher move and a hitter flinch. If you look at his strike zone map from TexasLeaguers.com which dates back to before the 2011 season, you can see quite a few of his sliders on the inside portion of the plate to righties were called for a strike. Conversely, there’s a significant grouping of sliders at the lower portion of the zone – right where Perkins senses he may be getting squeezed – that are literally borderline pitches that were not called for a strike. Download attachment: PerkinsSlider2.PNG Pitchf/x, a system of cameras designed to capture and catalogue the release point and where the pitch crosses the plate – while measuring velocity, spin and other data in-between – is not without its flaws. For starters, across baseball each stadium’s cameras are slightly different and therefore pump out slightly different results – some minuscule, some noticeable. Additionally, strike zones are not all the same for all hitters. That needs to be taken into account. So while Pitchf/x data suggests Perkins was hosed significantly in 2011, Inside Edge’s data refutes that. Their data – which is used by many major league teams including the Minnesota Twins and is compiled by video scouts – says that between 2011 and 2012, 90.9% (290 of 319 in-zone pitches taken) were called strikes compared to the 90.6% league average. Then there is the categorization of pitches. “I don’t ever throw changeups and it classifies them as changeups,” said Perkins. “If I go look at Brooks Baseball [brooksBaseball.net] after a game and I see it shows I threw two changeups, obviously I don’t throw that pitch so I know none of them are changeups.” While that aspect of the game has improved substantially, there are misses – such as Perkins’ slider being called a changeup. In 2011, Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x database says that 17.7% of his offerings were changeups. But even the human element gets fooled too. Fangraphs.com’s other pitch database, one provided by Baseball Info Solutions and their team of video scouts, says that he threw 1.4% changeups in 2011. Rather than being satisfied with the numbers stating he was getting screwed, Perkins continues to ask questions about the study. He wants to understand why instead of taking it at face value. Did the study break it down by pitch type? Is that available? He offers up several hypotheses as to why he may be getting squeezed, why Pitchf/x is not categorizing his pitch correctly and deliberates on the meaning of it all. This brought him full circle to his career’s rebirth which coincided with his exploration of a more analytical approach to the game. “I didn’t get into any advanced stats until 2010 when I was in Triple-A and struggling,” said Perkins. “It was a combination of [Ryan] Vogelsong and when Brandon McCarthy came back and I started to hear about those guys who were injured or unsuccessful and then they adjusted their pitch selections and focused doing different things. That got me thinking, maybe it’s something I should do.” It doesn’t hurt, too, that Perkins returned equipped with a mid-90s fastball whereas the other two starters barely get out of the 80’s -- quite the advantage before even considering the added layer of sabermetric insight. “Part of it is that I throw harder,” Perkins acknowledges, completely ignoring the fact that his slider bends through space and time. “But I know what I don’t want to do. I know what results I don’t want. You can’t obviously get ideal results across the board all the time, but I know that I don’t want to get fly balls and I don’t want to walk guys.” Of course, Perkins knows that there is more to his success than just knowing the sabermetric basics – like getting ground balls and not walking people. There needs to be an ability to execute pitches. Consider Brian Bannister. Prior to the emergence of McCarthy and Vogelsong, Bannister’s foray into the stat community drew attention but, ultimately, because of his natural ability limits Bannister could not practice what he preached as well as the other three pitchers. “It was: This is what I need to do. I knew early last year I had a higher ERA but I knew that I had given up base hits, I had given up a two-run homer to Hamilton, I knew that over time that if I continued to execute my pitches, my ERA would end up matching up with my FIP and that I do not need to change what I’m doing because I have an eight [ERA] 4 innings into the season. Over the course of the season – and it did -- it will even out.” Now, with his shoes fastened and prepared to join the rest of his team for warm-ups, Perkins concluded the advanced stats discussion with a refreshing simplification of the art that has inspired numerous websites to generate charts, graphs, theorems, percentages and raw numbers to better understand a position that teams pay millions upon millions for: “It is obvious stuff in hindsight, but keep the ball down, try to get ground balls, don’t give up fly balls and don’t walk guys.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer.jpg The Minnesota Twins' Dustin Morse announced via Twitter that the Twins will officially move Joe Mauer from catcher to first base for the 2014 season. In October, general manager Terry Ryan told Twins Daily in his offseason interview that the team was not planning for Mauer to move away from behind the plate and the transition from catching to first was ultimately Mauer's decision. "I'm not preparing for anything different than we prepared for last year," Ryan said. "That decision's still coming down to whether or not he wants to catch for sure. The good thing is he's, I would say, he's 95 percent right now, which is good. That's a decision that's going to come down on whether or not he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there. But right now I'm preparing for him to be back there." The move obviously opens up questions as to the team's plans for catcher in 2014. Veteran Ryan Doumit also suffered a concussion that removed him from the position at the end of the year and Josmil Pinto, while promising in September, is still learning. Although Pinto's character and coachability have been lauded, there still is work defensively, said Ryan. "There were days that I was a little concerned. With any kid that comes up, you're not going to have a polished product," Ryan noted. In addition to Doumit and Pinto, Ryan mentioned minor leaguer Eric Fryer as a player who contributed positively in 2013 (albeit at the minor league level) and there are several free agent catching options available on the market. The team's official press release cites that while Mauer is symptom free from the concussion suffered late 2013, the increasingly inherent dangers of the position necessitated the move. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Duensing.jpg Left-handed relievers are valuable if under-appreciated members of society. You know, like oxygen. While they may seem ubiquitous and always available, a team could get killed if it doesn't have any. They have a certain vampiric quality to them as they are seemingly able to last forever while continually finding work. Darren Oliver, 42-years-old, has been employed steadily. Despite mixed results, J.C. Romero, until this year, had also hung around baseball for a long time. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Even with numerous options out there, when the trade deadline comes around, contending teams rush to acquire just one or two for safe measure. Because of this it is possible Minnesota Twins’ reliever Brian Duensing threw his last pitch with the team on Tuesday night. Admittedly, Duensing does not quite fall into the category of specialist. In the recent past, he had been able to dominate same-sided opponents with a big slider. Judging by that alone, it appeared he would make a strong left-handed reliever. After bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen through his five years with Minnesota, 2013 has been the first year he has been a full-time reliever. And this season he has been asked to retire lefties more than in previous years. “The only thing I feel like is really different, is the fact that I am more focused strictly on the lefties,” says Duensing regarding his approach. “I’m not coming in worrying about the righties as much, but I’m facing righties a little more than I did earlier in the season. The main thing is that it is kind of hard, at this very moment I don’t have the feeling that I know exactly where it’s going to go all the time. Which is fine: If I don’t know where it’s going, they don’t know where it’s going.” This admission, when synchronized with Mike Moustakas’ eighth inning solo home run on Wednesday night, highlights Duesning’s shortcoming this season. Catcher Joe Mauer called for the standard slider down and away to the left-handed hitting Moustakas but the pitch was up and middle-in and wound up just inside the right field foul pole. To be sure, the home run was a rare event off Duensing – just his second allowed in 2013 – yet command issues are noticeable. The transition to the bullpen has allowed Duensing to air it out constantly knowing that he will have a short outing, more so this year than past years. After averaging 4.0 outs per appearance from 2009 to 2012 while in relief, he’s down to 2.4 outs per appearances this season. As such he’s hitting closer to 93 on the gun. Of course, the trade-off may be the decline in precision. For instance, the lack of command has been seen in Duensing’s overall peripheral numbers. After walking just seven percent of all batters faced, the lefty has issued free passes to ten percent of hitters this year. So does he believe the fastball -- when trying to rear back and aim at triple-digits on the radar -- is the culprit? “It’s basically all of them. It’s kind of scary but, as of lately, the results have been a little better.” For the most part, sure. After all, Duensing had been stringing together a good series of appearances. In seven appearances from July 9 to July 26, he had not allowed a run to score. However he was playing with fire in several of those outings, allowing four walks and a hit batter in 6.2 innings. Last night, he struggled to retire four Royals lefties in a row. Duensing seems content with his role in the bullpen but acknowledges the challenges of transitioning from a starter to a reliever take preparation. “It’s not easy to come to the ballpark everyday and be prepared to throw. As a starter you have four days off in between, so mentally it is kind of taxing on you to try to figure out when you are going to pitch. Every day you might pitch. You might throw three, four days in a row or you might not throw for five.” The move is not always as simple as it might seem. In 2011, while with the Twins, current Miami Marlin Kevin Slowey was reassigned to the bullpen but struggled with his new role. Some research has indicated many pitchers have moved from starter to reliever and not only have done well but thrived, with added velocity or a specialized role. Look no further than Duensing’s current bullpen mate Glen Perkins who has rebounded from fallen starter to All-Star reliever with a mid-90s fastball and devastating slider. On the other hand, others cannot clear the preparation hurdle. That was Slowey’s biggest downfall. Manager Ron Gardenhire noted in May of that season that they would call down to the pen to get Slowey ready, he would throw “five or six pitches” then say he was ready. The results were that Slowey needed a few days of rest afterward. There is a reason why marathon runners do not always make good sprinters. More often than not, Gardenhire has been consistent with Duensing’s use in 2013 and Duensing has given him no indication that he is not equipped to handle that sort of treatment. According to Baseball-Reference.com, 31 of Duensing’s appearances have come with no days or one day off between outings. In his 10 appearances with no days of rest between, he has limited opponents to a .257 average and just two runs. Although not quite the rubber-band man that Matt Guerrier was during his late 2000s heyday, Duensing has demonstrated he can be ready when needed, a fact which he attributes to preparing for the marathon of starting and adjusting for the sprint of the bullpen. “In the offseason, I prepare like I’m going to start,” he says. “ Obviously, it is a lot easier if you are prepared to go long, it’s a long easier to go short. During the season, like when they said I was going to be in the bullpen, I changed my mentality and the throwing I do – you are not playing long-toss every day, you are kind of shortening up here and there and you are really paying attention to how your arm and body feels and how it is working, ‘cause you have to be ready to go every day, so you have to make sure you know what it takes to make sure you are ready to go.” Duensing, is now in his fifth season in the majors and will have his second year of arbitration this offseason, says the experience has helped breed familiarity with his opponents – something that can be both good and bad. “There are some guys I feel comfortable knowing how I want to go about pitching them. There are some guys who I still may not have a good idea about. I am also noticing that I may have fallen into patterns the last few years – like I noticed a lot of lefties try to take the same kind of approach on me.” The book for left-handed pitchers says to stay away from lefties – bust them on the outer-half of the plate with fastball and breaking pitches. Duensing started to feel that same-sided opponents were cheating a bit and going with that pitch. Instead, he has been trying to go inside more often to left-handed opponents. “I’ve had a lot of success going in on lefties. So I don’t know if that means the ball is running a bit more or if they are looking middle-away, I feel like that is a typical way a lefty would pitch a lefty, away with sliders and fastballs. I try to get out of my normal patterns and keep them guessing.” Like on Wednesday night, Duensing sawed off former college teammate and groomsman Alex Gordon’s bat into a toothpick on a fastball inside. However, Gordon won the battle with his friend with a liner the other way when Duensing went back outside with a fastball that stayed away but up in the zone. When asked if he has ever reviewed Pitchf/x data, Duensing said he had brief encounters with the numbers but had not explored anything to any extend; he has felt more comfortable trying to gain an edge by examining video and watching hitters in the box. He admits it may be time to take another look to see if the information on Pitch f/x can help him break away from tendencies that opponents have picked up over the years. “That might help me with tendencies and why certain guys are taking certain swings on certain counts. I feel like it is human nature to get into a tendency, to get into a pattern. Especially if something is working, you are going to stick with it. It would be interesting to find out if there was something I could change.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: morneau.jpg Since his return to the lineup this month, Justin Morneau has seemingly been driving the ball to the opposite field not only better but also more frequently. In Detroit, the big left-hander crushed a home run over the left-center field fence and then went the other way with pitches in Milwaukee over the weekend – one for a bloop single and the other for a sacrifice fly. In all, nine of his 17 balls in play prior to last night’s game went to the left of dead center. While it is a small sample size, Morneau has hit 52% of his balls to the left of center in May which dwarf’s April’s 28%. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Positive as that may be, Morneau’s season has been a bit perplexing, particularly in the plate discipline department. Although he has always had the tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, the level at which he is straying after pitches has reached a career-high of 40%. In 2011, while he was having issues keeping his weight back and his hip closed, the strategy that opposing teams implemented was to keep the ball out of the strike zone and allow the Twins first baseman to get himself out – particularly when being pitched away. Often, Morneau would be out ahead of the pitch and harmless turnover on the pitch to the right-side of the infield. This year teams are pretty much attacking him in the same many only now they have added a wrinkle: more curves. One significant change is that opponents have been pumping him curve balls this season. It would seem that the league-wide scouting report on Morneau is that his eagerness to catch up with the fastball away has ripened him for a stream of curve balls to disrupt his timing on the hard stuff. And, so far, the league has been successful in shutting him down with this pitch. Download attachment: Morneau and the curve.jpg In 2010, the last year Morneau was truly “dialed in”, the first baseman hit curve balls at 5.0 runs above average clip according the Fangraphs.com Pitch Value system. That year, Morneau drove those hanging curve balls fairly well. While seeing fewer than 10% of the overall pitch distribution as curves, Pitch F/X data found at JoeLefkowicz.com says that he went 10-for-30 on curve balls put into play (a very good .333 BABIP) while hitting another four for home runs. Meanwhile, this year, Morneau has seen a steady increase in the amount of breaking pitches thrown his direction, receiving curves 18% of the time in 2012. Unlike his 2010 campaign, Morneau has not had nearly as much success against the hook. By Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value metric, he has posted a career-low 2.2 runs below average which is based on the fact that he is just 1-for-11 on curves in play (.090 BABIP) – including a fly out to center off of one of Gavin Floyd’s benders in the third inning last night - while putting a high margin of those in play as grounders. Given the fact that he is starting to rekindle his love affair with driving the outside pitch to left field, there are reasons to remain optimistic for his production. By driving the ball to left, Morneau is demonstrating he can keep his weight and hands back - two main elements that help in adjusting to the curve ball. For Morneau, the season is still fairly young and he certainly has the capabilities of rebounding, that is, if he can remain healthy. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: AG.jpg At 7 PM tonight, join NBCSports.com's writer, proprietor of AaronGleeman.com and the co-host of Gleeman & The Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman, for a live chat to discuss all things Twins, baseball and any other general topic you want to ask. So finish your dinner, put away the dishes, and hunker down in front of the warm glow of the computer! [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Live Chat with NBCSport's Aaron Gleeman Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7882414.jpg The narrative for Joe Mauer this offseason was that the transition to first base was going to heal his legs, provide him with superhuman power, and maybe help him find the missing Malaysian plane in his spare time. So far, none of that has happened. To Twins fans, the most relevant is the power. Through 19 games this year, he has just three extra base hits in his back pocket - two doubles and a home run. Beyond that, Mauer has accumulated 24 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances, an extremely high rate by his standards. While the conversation revolving around his lack of dingers and ribbies is mindbogglingly shortsighted, there are some elements to his early season numbers that may help confirm some of what the “eye-testers” are seeing. Here are a few things to consider. Mauer is having issues against non-fastballs Curves, sliders, changeups and everything in between, if it ain’t straight heat, Mauer has not been Mauer this season. From 2009 to the end of last season Mauer compiled a .262 batting average on pitches that were not fastballs. That rate is not otherworldly -- Miguel Cabrera leads baseball with a .301 average in that time -- but Mauer’s figure was still well above the league’s average. His ability to allow the ball to travel deep into the zone before executing his patent inside-out swing, combined with a doctorate in zone comprehension, made it a difficult proposition for pitchers to break off a bender. This year has been a different story. Pitchers have mixed in more of these types of pitches to improved results. Following Tuesday’s game against the Rays, the curve that he laced off the cup of pitcher David Price notwithstanding, Mauer is hitting just .182 against non-fastballs. The most significant difference appears to be his ability to put the ball in play. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, Mauer has put the ball in play on just 33% of his swings compared to the 49% he has in the previous years. What’s more, the balls Mauer is putting in play have not been exactly scorched, says his well-hit average. From 2009 to 2013, Mauer held a .213 well-hit average on secondary pitches. So far in 2014, that number is at .093. (While it is almost certain that the video scouts would include the fourth-inning liner off of Price’s manhood as “well-hit”, that hit failed to even knock the big lefty out of the game in spite of catching the pitcher square between the legs.) Two-strike situations have been un-Mauer-like Over the previous five seasons, Mauer has been one of the best two-strike hitters in the game. With the best batting average (.257) and seventh-highest on-base percentage (.312) in that time, the Twins’ best compensated player was the hardest for pitchers to retire despite the two-strike advantage. This year, with a direct correlation to the aforementioned secondary struggles, Mauer has been decisively different. Putting the ball in play with success has been difficult, and as his current .167 average would suggest, pitchers are finding it much easier to put him away with a strikeout. In two-strike situations, Mauer’s vaunted contact abilities have taken a leave of absence so far this year. Whereas from 2009 to 2013 he had a 14.8% swing-and-miss rate, that has skyrocketed to 27.7% this year. For the visual learners, Mauer’s contact rate heat map shows a Swiss cheese-like pattern on his two-strike swings (below) in comparison to last year (above): Download attachment: Joe Mauer_2-strike.jpg Mauer’s swing zone has changed One of the explanations behind his increased strikeout rate and his lack of power may have to do with his swing location selection. Download attachment: Joe Mauer_swing rate.jpg Mauer has had a very concise swing zone over the past five years, focusing mainly on offerings that come in on the upper inner-half of the plate. These pitches he has been able to drive to left field with some authority as he lets the ball travel deeper into the zone. So far this year he has expanded this area, bleeding over to the other hemisphere of the plate. In the past, Mauer has done well with pitches on the outer half -- particularly when going the other way. For instance, last year he hit .536 (37-for-69) with 14 doubles and four home runs when he drove the ball to left on the outside portion of the zone. This year he’s just 3-for-13 with no extra base hits when going the other way on pitches away. Repeat of last year? So, for those who feel that this Joe Mauer is different than previous versions of Joe Mauer, you are not wrong. One big reason not to panic is because of the overall sample size. After missing substantial amount of time at the end of 2012, Mauer came into 2013 cold as well. A little over 100 plate appearances (109 to be exact), he was hitting .283/.349/.394. This prompted a similar write-up to this one in response to the mass hysteria regarding his lack of production. Per usual, Mauer responded and rebounded by hitting an absurd .335/.415/.500 from then until his untimely concussion in August. This season’s slow start, like that of last year, may just be residue of rust hanging on from his extended time away from the game or simply a slow start. Settle down, everyone. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaron-nola-nola.jpg The six-foot-two Aaron Nola might not fire the fastest bullets among this year’s draft class but the right-handed junior out of LSU might be the most major league ready arm. But is a pitcher the organization's highest priority? Who is this guy? Nola, a graduate of Catholic High School in Baton Rouge, LA (that’s French for “Red Stick”), was an intriguing enough a prospect after his senior year of high school that the Toronto Blue Jays selected him with their 22nd round pick in 2011. At that time, the six-foot-two fungo bat was wheeling 92 mile an hour fastballs in Perfect Game events. Several rounds later, the Blue Jays took Aaron’s older brother Austin, a shortstop from LSU, in hopes of getting the family discount. Both Nolas delayed their professional careers at that time to play together in the storied baseball program in Louisiana. The younger Nola had a terrific freshman year among the elite competition with the likes of Mike Zunino, terrorizing pitchers with aluminum bats. For his part, Aaron Nola finished the year 7-4 in 19 games and 89 strikeouts in 89.2 innings pitched. Leading the Tigers staff that season was Kevin Gausman, who would be drafted fourth overall by the Baltimore Orioles (one slot behind the ball-killing Zunino). In his sophomore season, Nola combined with a future Twins prospect Ryan Eades to be the one-two punch for the Tigers that made it to the College World Series and finished with a 12-1 record, 1.57 ERA, and a 122-to-18 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 17 starts. After the CWS run, LSU’s coach, Paul Mainieri, noted that 22 professional scouts were on-hand to watch one of Nola’s intrasquad fall practice starts heading into 2014. So far this season he has not wasted anyone’s scouting budget -- maybe except if your organization is drafting outside the Top 10 however. Nola has racked up a 9-1 record with a 1.42 ERA and the best strikeout rate of his career (10.62 K/9). Why the Twins will pick him Nola possesses the kind of command that makes the Twins front office swoon. Yes, I know. Twins fans read that a pitcher has above-average command and immediately assume he pitches to contact. That’s not the case with Nola. Unlike the more recent pitching draft picks, Nola doesn’t have the power arm that Eades or Jose Berrios have but there is little question that his fastball is a significant weapon. With a slinging three-quarter arm slot, Nola is able to put on a lot of sink and generate plenty of missed bats while hovering at 90-92 miles an hour. The radar gun readings do not do his fastball justice however, as the sound is what makes hitters take notice. “It sounds like a loud whistle,” Sean McMullen, LSU’s designated hitter and outfielder, told the local media. “It’s as loud as anybody I’ve ever faced.” Beyond the fastball, Nola has an above-average changeup that is considered his best secondary pitch but he also has a developing breaking ball. His stuff isn’t overpowering but his deceptive delivery (there’s some good extension at release) and pitch movement show a polished pitcher who could be MLB ready real soon, as one anonymous cross-checker told MLB.com. Why the Twins won’t pick him There does not seem to be a real reason to not draft Nola at five if they want to target a pitcher unless one of the higher-upside arms like Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon or Tyler Kolak somehow falls to them. And the Twins went pitcher/catcher in 2013 so there may be some gravitation towards position players like Nick Gordon or Alex Jackson (a catcher who may not remain a catcher). Nola has the stuff to rise quickly through the system but that might not be the Twins biggest need in 2014. ------------------------------------------------------------- With another Twins win over San Diego on Wednesday night, you can get half-price large or extra-large pizza at PapaJohn’s.com with the promo code “TWINSWIN.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg Let’s just start by saying that in his second tour of duty in the major league, Brian Dozier fared better than in his first stint. After a dismal 2012 season, he managed to improve his walk rate and power numbers to finish the year as one of the team’s top contributions. Faint praise, however, considering the lineup’s surprising lack of offense overall. That said, Dozier’s in-season development was impressive.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After a working with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, the infielder was able to make a timing adjustment that paid dividends in the season’s second-half. The adjustment allowed Dozier to combine the changes he made with his hips in spring training with proper timing to drive the ball on the inner-half of the plate. The results were 18 home runs -- the highest total by a Twins’ second baseman in team history. Will this equate to potential big home run numbers in 2014, too? Eh, not so fast. One thing that needs to be taken into consideration is where his home run pitches were located. According to ESPNtrumedia’s database, 11 of his 18 home runs were located in the upper-third of the hitting zone: Download attachment: Dozier HR_Upper.png Brian Dozier's 2013 home runs, by location This represents a very high percentage of his home runs and something that hitters do not typically match, year-in and year-out. In 2013, only Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt (17) hit more home runs on pitches in the upper-third of the strike zone than Dozier. For the past several years this leader board has had plenty of turnover. In 2012 another Diamondback, Aaron Hill, led baseball with 13 home runs on pitches in the upper-third. The year before that it was Josh Willingham (16) in Oakland and, before that, Albert Pujols (20). Why this appears to be an unrepeatable skill may be influenced by the opposition’s change in approach. If you know that Albert Pujols is going to launch one on a pitch up in the zone, you would avoid that space like the plague. On the other hand, it may simply be luck. Despite major league pitchers’ best efforts, they still miss their spots from time to time and the ability to capitalize on those mistakes by depositing them into the seats may take a stroke of good fortune for the hitter. Beyond that, Dozier faced a very high percentage of fastballs. This may be because he was a non-threatening factor in 2012 but has since made it clear he can handle the heat. Last year, he saw fastballs 57% of the time whereas the league average was 53%. On fastballs Dozier hit a healthy .273/.353/.517 but hit just .196/.239/.249 on non-fastballs. If you were concocting a game plan to combat the Twins’ lineup, the directive would likely be to throw Dozier fewer fastballs in 2014 – at the very least, fewer fastballs up in the zone. This is not to cause despair for Dozier’s 2014 season. After all, his plate discipline was a significant step forward as he reduced his chase rate considerably, from 32% in ’12 to 26%; he also stopped swinging at everything as his swing rate dropped from 49% in ‘12 to 40% in 2013. Those indicators bode well for his comprehension of the zone and his development as a hitter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg The Dodgers and the Red Sox have just completed a blockbuster of a trade in late August but it may not have even happened if Los Angeles was able to coerce their first choice – Justin Morneau – from the Minnesota Twins. According to the Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez, the Dodgers, who were interested in Morneau at the non-waiver deadline in July, contact the Twins last week to see if a deal could be struck for the first baseman. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Morneau, who is owed roughly $2.5 million for the remainder of the year and another $14 million in 2013, had a slow start to the season, bogged down by his surgically repaired wrist. However, in the season’s second-half, he has hit .310/.361/.493 in 155 plate appearances suggesting that he has healed well. Leave your comments on this topic here. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Revere.jpg After a session with the team’s brass, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire emerged from their war room (war not WAR) at the Nashville hotel and, following the trade of Denard Span, told the MLB Network that they were “trading my whole damn team.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While it could be just a tongue-in-cheek response from the manager who is known to add some snark, because of the team’s current status of a bottom-dwelling squad without a rotation the Twins should really consider it. The front office has been extremely vocal about not trading Josh Willingham unless they were blown away with an offer and there has not been much discussion about moving Justin Morneau this winter. There is one unlikely Twins player who may have value at the winter meetings who the front office could consider moving and that is Ben Revere. If Revere is able to be packaged in a deal that could fetch a decent rotation arm the Twins should consider taking it. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves are in need of a starting center fielder and Revere’s youth and cost control may be appealing enough to pry one of their surplus arms. Revere, 24, will enter his third season at the major league level. Last year, the speedy outfielder developed into a high-average hitter with well above-average defensive chops when it came to covering ground and making acrobatic catches. Meanwhile, on the bases, Revere swiped 40 bases -- succeeding in his kleptomania 82% of the time -- and, by Fangraphs.com’s accounting system, was the seventh-highest valued base-runner in the game. Baseball-Reference.com’s warehouse said that his legs added five runs to the Twins’ ledger in 2012 (tied for fourth highest in MLB) which equates to roughly a half a win. Given that he’s just beginning to adapt to the world’s best competition, the expectation is that he will continue to improve. After all, with his speed, he’s guaranteed to accumulate hits like Flo Rida. However, there are several areas in which he has been deficient and that is his ability to compile walks and hit for power. In addition outstanding speed and bat control - which Revere has displayed - premium leadoff hitters are adept at increasing pitch counts and coaxing walks. While he produced terrific numbers through his minor league career, Revere’s walk rate was below 7%, relying on batted balls to find seams in the defense to buoy his on-base percentage. Similarly, Revere’s power drought has been one nearing historic proportions and given how he puts the ball in play (mostly grounders), the odds are strong that he usurps Greg Gross for most plate appearances without a home run. These are two aspects of his game which are unlikely to change. Sure, his high average, high range and high speed talents may help cover up those shortcomings sufficiently but there is also indications that he is not in the Twins’ plan beyond 2013. If the Twins trade Revere, the duty of center field would like fall to Aaron Hicks - a five-tool prospect who has yet to see time above Double-A. While a level jump without touching Triple-A is less than ideal, Revere made the leap from New Britain in September 2010 and worked his way into the Twins lineup without sampling much time in Rochester. Hicks, 23, was drafted one year after Revere and will have the same amount of development time as Revere when he was forced into semi-regular duty in 2011. Like Revere, Hicks has buckets of speed on the bases and in the field. Unlike Revere, Hicks has a howitzer for an arm. Last year, he recorded 10 outfield assists with New Britain. Revere had 18 throughout his entire six-year minor league experience. With the massive real estate in right-center field, the field staff knows they need someone with a legit arm. Hicks also possess other tools at the plate that makes him a superior leadoff choice than Revere. A switch-hitter, Hicks has monk-like patience at the plate, registering a walk in almost 15% of his plate appearances. What’s more is that he has the occasional pop, able to gain multiple bases on a single swing of the bat. From a development process perspective, allowing Hicks an additional year to hone his craft at Rochester while keeping his arbitration clock from starting would be the most desired scenario. By all accounts, Revere is a hard-worker with three strong skills. Still, the Twins need starting pitching beyond just this season and Hicks can certainly learn on the job. If trading Revere would bring back a cost-controlled starter, the organization needs to seriously consider pulling the trigger. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gibson.jpg Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins' pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: BrooksBaseball.net says Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity. Click here to view the article

So the Twins Daily official Spring Training coverage begins next week when John Bonnes touches down in Fort Myers. However, last week I had the privilege -- nay -- honor of getting a tour of Hammond Stadium’s updates with my family. While in Florida for my -- ahem -- nuptials (sorry ladies), we made a pit stop at the Twins’ spring training facilities and were treated to a walk-through of the activities, which included the catchers’ drills on the backfield. Thanks to our photographer (and my cousin) Will Sandstad, we came away with some wonderful action shots of the practice session. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: Catchers1.jpg Download attachment: Catchers2.jpg Download attachment: Catchers3.jpg Download attachment: Catchers4.jpg Download attachment: Catchers5.jpg Download attachment: Catchers6.jpg Download attachment: Catchers7.jpg Download attachment: Catchers9.jpg Download attachment: Catchers10.jpg For more thoughts and reactions on the drills and the new additions to the stadium, please listen to the podcast below (warning: some adult language). Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7824413.jpg Greetings from surprisingly chilly Hammond Stadium. I know it is below freezing back in Minnesota but for the locals here, this means breaking out the heavy gear. The good news is it is sunny and the team has had an opportunity to have a full day of workouts. More notes: The Twins traded Vance Worley to the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash after last night’s game (and there will be more on that later). Interest in the right-hander who cleared waivers the previous week was lukewarm but there were several teams that called on him. The Twins ability to score runs has been a looming concern but the front office did not go into the winter with the idea that the offense was complete. “We did not go into the offseason saying we just need to get two or three starting pitchers and we will be right where we want to be,” said Antony. “That was not the case.” He acknowledged the team made efforts to obtain other position players but those targets ultimately signed elsewhere. Antony also reiterated there will be no cuts today; Ron Gardenhire said after yesterday’s game that the roster will be finalized on Friday -- likely after that day’s game. On the minor league side, Byron Buxton’s wrist sprain is going to likely keep him from starting the year on time at New Britain. There is no indication of when he will be ready but the likelihood is he will remain at camp for the extended spring training until his wrist is healed. That decision needs to be made by Twins’ minor league farm director, Brad Steil. The opening series rotation has been set for Chicago. Ricky Nolasco will take the opener opposite Chris Sale while Kevin Correia and Phil Hughes will follow in the next two games. Nolasco is starting this afternoon’s game and looking to finish spring strong after he was knocked around for seven runs in three innings in his last start. The wind is really whipping up down here. Yesterday, the wind was blowing strong from left to right field and today it is just the opposite. Prior to the game, the major league catchers were taking pop fly practice by means of a pitching machine set up at home plate. The ball’s trajectory would shoot towards the pitching mound but the wind would push it all the back towards the backstop and first base dugout. Approximately one out of every ten balls were fielded cleanly. More after the game. Be sure to follow the TwinsDaily twitter account for in-game and in-camp updates. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: DarrenWolfson300.jpg You missed tonight's chat with KSTP's hard-working sports reporter and 1500ESPN's Twins post-game host Darren Wolfson. But you can still get his insights by reading the transcripts of his chat with Twins Daily members. Topics included how realistic the return of Francisco Liriano is, and if we'll see a new manager in 2014. Just click below. Also, be sure to check out Darren's "Scoops" at 1500ESPN.com and follow him on Twitter for the latest Minnesota sports information. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Live Chat with KSTP's Darren Wolfson Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Liriano_HR.jpg The Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported yesterday that the Twins officials have been in contact with Francisco Liriano’s representatives and will meet next week in Nashville during the winter meetings. To many Twins fans, the news probably inspired a palm to the face followed by a head to the desk. After all, Liriano has been as bad of a starter in the past two seasons not named Nick Blackburn -- another reason to repeat the face-palm and head-desk combination. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Since his mini-rebound in 2010, Liriano has turned in a bloated 5.23 ERA (sixth highest in that time) and has walked 12.6% of batters faced (second most in MLB). His inability to control the strike zone has resulted in the overabundance of baserunners and subsequent runs scored (hence the ERA and walk rate). Pitchers need to work ahead and throw a high percentage of strikes in order to maintain success at the major league level. High walk rates mean quick-rising pitch counts and early showers which means more strain on the bullpen and stress on the manager’s heart. Liriano, however, has been baseball’s biggest culprit of digging himself into a hole the past two years. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch data, his 51.7% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. It should be elementary but this was a very significant factor for Liriano has when he fell behind, opponents were able to reach base in a myriad of ways, in almost 50% of those instances (.498 on-base percentage when batters ahead versus .467 MLB-average). In comparison, when he was able to get ahead of opponents, he was able to retire them at a rate higher than the baseball norm (.186 on-base percentage versus .211 MLB-average). In terms of raw stuff, Liriano has been one of the best in the game. His slider has been able to make the smartest of hitters look completely stupid once it begins to descend the other direction. Thanks to good velocity and tilt, he is able to achieve plenty of swing-and-misses (23% in 2012) on the slider but it is a pitch best used when he is ahead in the count. Falling behind more frequently in 2012 translated into more two-seam fastballs (titled “Sinker” in this chart) says BrooksBaseball.net: Download attachment: Liriano_2012.jpg Liriano’s two-seam was one of the reasons he was his own worst enemy the past two years. In 2010, Liriano, not showing exemplary command of the pitch, managed to throw it in the zone over 52% of the time. The past two years, that rate has dropped to below 50% -- 46% in 2012 -- meaning that every other fastball was not in the strike zone. Hitters may be fooled by sharp breaking pitches darting out of the zone but a fastball isn’t going to get them to bite as regularly. As such, after a season of recognizing this tendency to miss the zone, hitters kept the bat on their shoulders more frequently (36% swing rate in ‘12 versus 44% in ‘10) and strayed after fewer out of zone fastballs (20% in ‘12 versus 25% in ‘10). The end result was a grand total of 52 walks on the pitch in 2012 compared to just 27 in 2010. A reunion with former pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar, who was recently promoted to bullpen coach by the Twins, may be the right combination to get Liriano’s game back on track. After all, it was Cuellar who had worked with Liriano on refining his mechanics which allowed him to throw more strikes -- currently his most notable flaw. Of course, a pessimist would argue that Cuellar has not exactly pumped out any other pitchers like Liriano or Johan Santana since his return to the organization since 2007. This past year, Nick Blackburn was sent to Rochester and Cuellar was instructed to fix whatever was wrong. After several successful outings in AAA, Blackburn was recalled and proceeded to crank out a turd of start after another over his final 12 starts. Whatever knowledge was bestowed upon Liriano and Santana did not sink in with Blackburn. What’s more is that Liriano was already suppose to be fix by White Sox pitching guru Don Cooper, who the careers of Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton have been improved because of his instructions. While it was just two months of mentorship, Cooper, who said that he knew what was wrong with the lefty, did little to set Liriano straight (he actually fell behind in the count more while in Chicago). In fact, when he started to careen off kilter, Cooper told reporters that it was more mental than physical, something the Twins had been saying all along: If the legendary Cooper cannot fix what ails Liriano, how is Cuellar going to resuscitate his career? Video does show that Liriano has some changes to his delivery from the 2010 season and a big part of that is keeping it consistent. In 2011, he was not extending the same as he did in 2010 which changed his release point. Early on in 2012, it was falling away to the third base side with every pitch and causing some arm slot issues. Can Cuellar perform the same magic as he did almost a decade ago in New Britain? Ultimately, if the Twins believe working with Cuellar can positively influence Liriano, somehow coaxing the 2010 success out of him, then a one-year gamble with the expectation that he is a back-of-the-rotation arm would be as good of a move as signing potential injury risks of the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Baker or Scott Feldman. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7416816.jpg After passing his physical, the Twins and Kendrys Morales agreed on a one-year contract in hopes of increasing the offense which had disappeared in May. After scoring 131 runs in 24 games in April, the fourth-highest in baseball, the Twins managed just 92 runs in 29 games in May, the second-lowest totals. Morales, Ryan said, figures to turn that around. When the deadline that would have required the Twins to lose draft pool money passed, talks began with the free agent designated hitter/first baseman. During Sunday's broadcast, Terry Ryan said the Twins toyed with the idea two weeks ago and then talks grew serious during the MLB draft when they were discussing contracts with Morales' agent, Scott Boras. Because Morales is out of options, he will have to acclimate himself at the major league level. During his extended time-off, Ryan said that Morales did face live college pitching while working out at Boras' training facility in Miami, Florida. On Sunday morning, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan introduced the latest addition to the lineup: Terry Ryan introduces Kendrys Morales, Part 1 Terry Ryan introduces Kendrys Morales, Part 2 Click here to view the article