Parker Hageman

Part of Paul Molitor's appeal as a managerial candidate for the Minnesota Twins has been his willingness to embrace data and information in ways that his predecessor did not. Not only would Molitor be able to draw from his years of experience in the game but he would also add to it an analytical side that would provide an advantage for his players. As it turns out, not everyone on the team shares the same opinion on sabermetrics.“I think whoever believes in that sabermetrics stuff never played the game and won’t understand it. There’s no way you can measure playing outfield. Only eyes can do that,” the 39-year-old Torii Hunter told a room full of media onlookers, whirling recorders and broadcasting cameras last Wednesday. That would be only the fourth-most troublesome thing he said during the introductory press conference. Here’s the thing about Hunter’s opinion on sabermetrics: It doesn’t matter what he thinks. The stats community releases plenty of deep sighs whenever a player makes a reference to sabermetrics being nothing but a bunch of nerdery for Harry Potter enthusiasts to post on the internet between live-action role playing sessions. It doesn’t matter if Hunter thinks UZR stands for Untamed Zebra Riders and measures space lint; Hunter and other players do not need to know or understand the data, they just need to execute. Take Glen Perkins. Perkins might be the closest thing to a stathead in the major leagues. And though he will tell you he looks at fielding independent pitching numbers to help balance himself between outings, once he hits the field the numbers disappear. ‘‘The only thing I analyze when I’m out there is what stuff I have and what the hitter is doing,’’ he told the Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan in 2013. ‘‘All the numbers, all the stuff that I love, doesn’t play when you’re on the field. None of that stuff is a scouting tool for a player facing another player.’’ Like Hunter, Twins second baseman Brian Dozier wants little to do with the sabermetric fielding data and shares the same sentiment in regard to those who do use it. "Obviously that's part of the game now more than ever. I really don't (pay attention to it) because as far as defensively, sabermetrically, anything like that, I think it's people behind a desk trying to dictate how you play the game," Dozier told FoxSportsNorth.com’s Tyler Mason this past April. "That's not the way the game's been played. Nobody can see what's inside of you.” Haters gonna hate. Players gonna play. In spite of the fact that Hunter may think sabermetrics is on par with unicorn droppings, his new manager Paul Molitor “believes” in the sabermetrics stuff and had played the game a little bit himself. “My reaction to Torii’s sabermetrics declining considerably in the past few years, that doesn’t concern me,” Molitor told reporters in sunsoaked San Diego on Tuesday during the Winter Meetings. “Now you can measure range and all those things, but I’ll take his experience and knowledge and throw him out there with a couple of young outfielders and take my chances with no hesitancy whatsoever. Yeah, he’s 39. He’s not 29. We all get that, but I’m confident about what he’s going to bring to our team from many different areas including not being concerned about his defense.” In not so many words Molitor acknowledged that Hunter’s range has diminished, which is what the sabermetric stats were saying about him all along. The response was a diplomatic managerial answer. Ultimately, Molitor views Hunter’s defense -- at least the portions that are not measured by ultimate zone rating or Inside Edge’s video scouts -- as a significant upgrade over Oswaldo Arcia. “I watched how Scottie [ulger] worked with [Arcia] last year in the outfield, and they’ll go out there in right field and Scottie will hit balls in corner and say this ball is a double. Your objective is not to play it into a triple,” Molitor explained. “During the game someone will hit it down the line and he’ll try to slide and stop the ball before it gets into the corner and it turns a double into a triple.” Choosing to downplay Hunter’s defensive data does not mean Molitor is avoiding the statistical side of the game as a manager. Molitor credits his time around some of the game’s forward-thinkers at the helm, particularly former Brewers manager Tom Trebelhorn. “I was fortunate being around guys like George [bamberger], and Harvey [Kuenn], and a young Buck Rogers in his first time managing, and then a young guy like Tom Trebelhorn comes in and kind of innovative and a new thinker and you learn from that.” Trebelhorn was one of the early adaptors of statistical analysis in the dugout. According to his book “Behind-the-Scenes Baseball”, Doug Decatur recalls his time as a statistical consultant for Trebelhorn and the Brewers, writing over 200 stat reports that he would fax the then-Brewers manager. In 1991, Decatur would provide Trebelhorn with information for best bullpen deployment or batting order optimization, ideas that are almost standard now and available online but were groundbreaking at the time. “I’m learning more about sabermetrics all the time. Obviously, as a coach last year, I was exposed to them at a deeper level than I had been as a minor league player development person,” Molitor said. At the major league level, the available data can be enough to “choke a cow” as hitting coach Tom Brunansky tells it. Or it is like “drinking out of a firehose” as former pitcher Cole Devries described it. For Molitor, as a coach he was able to take it in at a slower pace. The exposure to data last year was something he sought out on his own, according to Twins’ manager of baseball research Jack Goin. When he was hired as a coach, Goin and his team briefed Molitor on what they could provide him and how he could obtain it. From there, Molitor was highly proficient at procuring information and implementing it into action, such as in the form of an increase in infield shifts. Now the team’s manager, Molitor is seemingly headed towards expanding the use of the information but with caution. “I’m going to try to learn what I think is valuable in assessing who plays, lineups, all those type of things. But I’m going to hopefully have enough confidence in myself to have a feel for players, and flow, and season, and momentum where I can trust some of that too. But I think with all the things that are out there, you can overwhelm yourself. But obviously some of it makes sense, and it’s proven to be successful in how managers integrate it into their system both defensively and offensively.” Click here to view the article

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman are joined by the Star Tribune's Amelia Rayno. They discuss the Torii Hunter signing, the subsequent press conference, interviewing Chuck Knoblauch and more. Click to listen below. NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #33: BASEBALL TALK WITH AMELIA RAYNO Rayno, the Gophers Men's Basketball beat writer for the Star Tribune, shares her impressions on the press conference from the perspective of a reporter. In 2011, she wrote a fantastic profile on former Minnesota Twin Chuck Knoblauch, one of the first interactions he had with the media since his retirement. Knoblauch had retreated to his home and family in Houston, eschewing the baseball world since leaving the field. "He's very in his own head," Rayno said about Knoblauch, "I think that's his personality. He kind of relives a lot of things, even now. I think the reason he decided to do it, and now he's even talking about writing a book because he really just wants to get it out, get it off his chest. He feels like he's been misunderstood." "I think he was angry and legitimately confused about how he was treated in Minnesota. He was really young obviously when he asked to be traded," Rayno said regarding the fan reaction. "He's an extremely competitive person and he explained it years later 'I just wanted to win.'" For more on Hunter, Knoblauch and the Minnesota Gophers basketball team, listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #33: BASEBALL TALK WITH AMELIA RAYNO Click here to view the article

Prior to the interview I had to refresh myself on his career and went to check out his game logs at B-R.com. In terms of 2012, I was surprised how well he pitched. His overall numbers were not great because in two of his 17 outings he allowed 7 runs (one in which he only went 1.1 innings vs Tampa). In 8 of his outings he allowed 1 earned run or fewer. He had decent splits that year as well. If he never tweaked his forearm in spring training 2013, who knows where his career would have gone.

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman are joined by former Minnesota Twins pitcher Cole DeVries. They discuss clubhouse chemistry, pitching coaches, advanced stats and rookie hazing. Click to listen below."The big thing that pitching coaches are told when you get to pro ball is not to hurt anyone," DeVries told the No Juice Podcast on his sentiments towards pitching coaches and their influence over the staff in light of the recent hiring of Neil Allen as the Twins pitching coach. "If it was someone who I knew how to help correct the problem I had is that you use [the pitching coach] when you are in a slump. Because when you are going good, you don’t need anyone’s help. You know what you are doing, everything’s working for those two, three, four or five starts but when you go on the other half of that and you are just getting killed every time you are going out, that’s when I always tried to lean on that pitching coach.” He also spoke about his interactions with Rick Anderson, providing insight into how some pitchers approach their game. “I was never much of a big video guy because I would go more off feel," DeVries said. "If something felt off. Because I knew exactly how my body had to feel in order to execute a pitch in certain location. So where I started to have trouble was when I couldn’t feel what I was doing, if things kind of felt numb or my body was all over the place. And so that’s why I never really watched very much video: because there is no feel in video. That’s why I always had to iron my things out in bullpen.” Devries, who retired after the 2013 season, talked about his injuries and decision to retire. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #32: COLE DEVRIES Click here to view the article

Completely understand your plight against UZR but your comments seem to overlook the fact that Inside Edge's numbers based on video scouts confirm what his UZR is saying. Likewise, raw batted ball data is also suggesting he is not able to cover as much ground as the top defenders. I believe those three lenses provides a clear picture about his level of defense in 2014.

I cannot isolate home/road splits for defense. It's possible someone at Inside Edge or another company can do this but I do not have access to that. One observation in watching film of him this past year is that he plays deep. This make him very good at going back on balls (as we've all seen make plays at the wall) but bad at those that fall short.

Pre-UZR calculations used Total Zone Rating as the defensive measurement for WAR. http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/total_zone.shtml

Gunnathor, I certainly echo your hesitation in the belief of putting too much emphasis on a defensive stat like UZR. There is plenty of shade that can be thrown on a one-year sampling and the methodology in general. The problem though is that there are multiple different measuring sticks that rate Hunter's performance as the worst, including Inside Edge's video scouts which has nothing to do with the zone ratings found in the UZR. More than that, when you just look at the sheer number of plays made, Hunter's performance was by far the worst at turning balls into outs. Are there factors like outfield partners, alignment and stadium playing an effect on this? Possibly. But reviewing the available video it is easy to see that his jumps and speed are just not there. I do believe there are other things a player can do to contribute defensively that are not measured in the advanced fielding stats and go beyond catching the ball that help a team but the most important thing in my mind is generating outs. Not turning a fly ball/liner into an out creates more opportunity for the other team to score runs.

First, I am sooooper glad you decided to stop reading right after the second GIF and make your comment here. After all, you missed the part where I wrote "Admittedly, without the ability to have MLB StatCast data on both these plays, this is an exercise in imperfection. There are other factors that might have led to the outcome like daytime versus nighttime, the score of the game or whether or not the glove oil fumes were causing dizziness." The other notable difference not pointed out in the article is that the two plays are slightly different. While Heyward closes in and makes a diving catch on a hard-hit ball, Hunter pulls up on a medium-hit ball. Had Hunter had a good first step or the speed of Heyward, chances are he might not even have had to dive for that ball. Second, since it was pointed out, yes, he suddenly did decide to play it safe because just one inning prior to that, he did this: http://i.imgur.com/zH5YLR4.gif This, is Hunter playing an Eric Fryer lazy fly ball into a triple when he could have gotten in front of it. Last, this was a representation, not trying to make a straight-line comparison because, in the end, there is nothing that is more accurate than the data. When you compare the data, Heyward is able to get to far more balls than Hunter. The real cherrypicking would have been had I shown three or four highlights of Hunter diving or making plays at the wall.

The Minnesota Twins signing of outfielder Torii Hunter has sparked some debate among fans. The most recited complaint is that while Hunter is able to perform at the plate, his defensive skill set has eroded significantly and has made him a detriment to the team. Just how bad is his fielding?At 39-years-old, there is little question that the tools that had at one time made him an elite defender -- a blindingly quick first step and the closing speed -- has been left behind in some old Angels uniform pants. Every stat that measures range has painted him a liability in right field. Ultimate Zone Rating dismisses him wholly as the worst among qualified right fielder. Revised Zone Rating dinged him for not making plays in the accepted right fielder zone that are typically made. Inside Edge’s video scouts agree, saying he has caught 98% of all plays deemed “Almost Certain” (99% conversion rate average) and made 88% of all plays, third worst among right fielders. As the metric world has come to a consensus regarding the outfielder, some industry sources have mentioned his defensive abilities are not represented within that particular data. Hunter has entered the savvy veteran world of being able to take a proper route in order stave off would-be advancing baserunners. He has done things like thrown behind runners on the bases to get them out. In some ways, touting skills like this feels like sort of like congratulating an elder person who is doing 10 under the speed limit for at least staying in his lane. While there may be some value, it is still not as important as getting to the ball on time. Consider this play off the bat of the Twins’ Danny Santana in Comerica last June. With the bases loaded and two outs, this harmless fly balls lands safely at Hunter’s feet: http://i.imgur.com/h7EbT9p.gif Meanwhile, compare that play to the one made by the former Brave, now current Cardinal Jason Heyward: http://i.imgur.com/xEavT1x.gif Admittedly, without the ability to have MLB StatCast data on both these plays, this is an exercise in imperfection. There are other factors that might have led to the outcome like daytime versus nighttime, the score of the game or whether or not the glove oil fumes were causing dizziness. These two plays were selected based on the hit type, estimated hang time, direction and perceived distance from the right fielder to the play. What the two examples show is the visual difference in the person with the highest UZR (Heyward) and the person with the lowest (Hunter) on a very similar play. For those who do not enjoy the fruits of the advanced defensive metrics tree, the raw totals found within ESPN/trumedia’s database reveals more damning evidence against Hunter. By filtering the batted ball data to reduce all hits to right field, carrying in the air (line drive and fly balls) more than 210 feet past the no-man’s land between the infield and outfield, while examining the individual hit types (soft, medium and hard) we find that the batting average on balls in play across MLB in 2014 breakdown as such: Download attachment: Hunter_Chart_MLB Avg.png While the Tigers right fielders performed better than the average against the softly hit flies and liners (.124, third-lowest in MLB) they struggled mightily to provide the same coverage on more well-struck balls. The Tigers right fielders led by Hunter allowed a .356 batting average on balls in play on swings that produced medium-well hits (second-worst, just ahead of the Yankees) but the real damage was done on the hard-hit variety. Opponents were able to post a .778 average on balls in play, 21% worse than the MLB average and by far the worst rate in the league. To put that in perspective, the Atlanta Braves, who used to employ right fielder Jason Heyward, led baseball with a .529 batting average on hard-hit balls in play. By the UZR standards, Hayward’s coverage was amazing. Not only was he able to convert on a vast majority of balls in his zone, he was able to make plays on 122 balls out of a right fielder’s zone. For his part, in approximately 200 fewer innings, Hunter made 50 out of zone plays. Download attachment: Hard Hit Balls_Chart.png What creates this effect? Why are the Braves and Heyward so much better at fielding well-hit balls than the Tigers and Hunter? The obvious first difference is age and skill. Hayward’s young legs allows for greater coverage. Fangraphs.com’s Fan Scouting Report has Hayward rated as an 87 when it comes to a first step. Hunter, on the other hand, was rated a 38 for his first step. Overall speed is rated a tortoise-like 44 for Hunter and a hare-like 82 for Hayward. Having the quick first step allows for the ability to track those hard-hit balls. The speed allows closing on flies that are out of the range of most human right fielders. The less obvious factor might be the defensive alignment a team implements. It is not clear whether the Tigers are big proponents of moving people around in the field to maximize coverage despite having a defensive coordinator (Mike Martin) on staff. The focus has been on the infield shifts, much to manager Brad Ausmus’ chagrin. Likewise, the Braves seem to play straight up with some shading but the ability to generate twice as many outs in right field as the Tigers leaves the impression that they are positioning players very well. **** In the end, it appears the Twins front office either is not concerned on the effect of the outfield defense on the pitching staff or are completely misunderstanding what constitutes good defense. During the Twins Daily Handbook interview with Terry Ryan, Ryan dismissed the notion that the outfield from 2014, which was rated one of the worst by the advanced metrics, was as bad as it appeared. “We’ll be looking for outfield but I’m not as concerned about the outfield defense as maybe it sounds like you are,” Ryan told me, adding that he doesn’t necessarily trust the advanced stats. One could argue that Hunter is not worse than Oswaldo Arcia in right field, as some of the advanced metrics would suggest. After all, Hunter is more experienced which leads to the proper execution of other elements of the game that are not captured by zones alone. The advanced fielding stats can be misleading, there is no question. The data, however, doesn’t lie. It just is. And what the data says is that Hunter is not able to catch everything an average right fielder is able to. This notion could leave the pitching staff frustrated in 2015. Click here to view the article

According to the Kia Tigers, everyone is a loser: https://twitter.com/Jeeho_1/status/537479611219591168

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman talks about the latest happenings in the Twins' world including the hiring of pitching coach Neil Allen, bringing back Torii Hunter, the reports bidding on Korean LHP Hyeon-Jong Yang and the rumors of interest in Wily Mo Pena. Listen below.Other topics include the Vikings loss to the Packers, the Gophers upsetting Nebraska in Lincoln and finding a place to watch the Big Ten title game (send your suggestions to @NoJuicePodcast). Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #31: BASEBALL THINGS! Click here to view the article

Yup. Here is a great read from Brian Macpherson on the struggles of prospects (and why it might be a good thing): http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141118-as-prospects-struggle-across-baseball-players-mentality-matters-more-than-ever.ece Reports are that he has the speed to be a good coverage corner outfield but his arm strength is lacking (not a problem as much in LF). As Radcliff said, he's got to get better on route, angles and anticipation.

Read the link and I think it's a good description of his mechanics. Almost anyone with any scouting acumen can see that with his swing. There is an odd echo effect regarding his prospect write-ups this season. Everyone seems to share the same things and raise the same questions. Some of it feels based on his poor performance during the regular season. Some are valid, some seem just to echo what every other report has said. I don't know if I feel like he is an everyday player at this point either. I am interested to see if he can do some hitting at AAA. While people feel his performance in the regular season was down because of the time off, I also wonder if it had to do with teams seeing him again, pitching him differently and exposing his flaws. In the fall league, pitchers are out there working on things sort of like spring training. I'm intrigued by his stick but his lack of patience is a detriment to his overall numbers.

When Mike Radcliff returned from Arizona he was hopeful with what he had seen from Eddie Rosario. Among the organization’s prospects playing for the Salt River Rafters in the Arizona Fall League was the recently rehabilitated Rosario. The 23-year-old had served a fifty game suspension due to a failed marijuana test -- his second such offense. In the grand scheme, with a nation heading towards increasing tolerance and two major league cities allowing use of the recreational drug, it appeared less of a concern than the use of performance enhancing drugs to inflate his numbers. Nevertheless, rules were rules and Rosario had broken them. Twice.The suspension could not have come at a worse point along his development timeline. Rosario was starting to gain attention as a hitter and, after a line drive that caught him in the face and required plates to be inserted in 2012, he already needed to play catch up. Beyond the lost time due to the injury, the Twins were trying to see if his path to the majors could be accelerated by moving to second base -- another hurdle. “Losing 50 games, that’s a huge setback,” general manager Terry Ryan told the Minneapolis Star Tribune at the time of his suspension. “That’s a lot of development time, a lot of learning that he’ll miss. It sets back his progression going up to the big leagues.” When he returned in 2014, based on his numbers and reports from scouts, his time away from the game appeared to stunt his development. Shifted back to the outfield because of the emergence of Brian Dozier at second, Rosario struggled to square the ball as frequently as he did in the past. He finished the season with the worst line of his career, turning in a .243/.286/.387 mark between High-A and Double-A. With the New Britain Rock Cats in June, Baseball Prospectus’ scouts reported he was a “at first player” and believed that he was “not likely to stick as long-term regular” after watching him for two games. They also questioned his hustle. In July another member of the Baseball Prospectus’ team, Jason Parks, concluded that “[w]ith his bat control and bat speed, he could really develop into a good hitter if he works the gaps and takes advantage of his strengths instead playing into his weaknesses. He’s a tweener for me right now, more a hit tool/speed type than a complete player.” Recognizing the need to get one of their more advanced prospects additional at-bats, Rosario was sent to the Arizona Fall League. In the desert -- while wearing the obsolete Twins pinstripe uniform and facing the game’s top prospect talent -- he started to hit again. The same type that earned him the reputation as one of the best hitters for average. Perhaps it was clicking at the right time or just a burst of small-sample size magic but the Twins’ Vice President of Player Personnel says that it may be due to re-engaging with the game. “I think the biggest thing is that he’s gone through a year of turmoil,” Radcliff said reflecting on Rosario’s offensive success in Arizona. “A year ago today it wasn’t good for him. He had a lot of things going on that weren’t good. Most of that is in the rearview mirror now and he has a different frame of mind. He concentrates and focuses on baseball and that’s allowed him to get back on track.” Where the regular season showed Rosario trying to do too much at the plate and unnecessarily swinging for the fences, the fall league was a profile of a more collected hitter. Many of the same points that have been raised about his swing still exist -- tons of pre-swing hand movement, stepping open with his front foot on his stride, drops his back shoulder at times, chases stuff down in the zone and so on -- but the positive aspects were on display as well. Rosario possesses extremely quick hands and, once he gets to his load point, he strikes like a cobra. The open stride which seemingly leaves him susceptible to the outer-half has not affected him as he covers the zone surprisingly well, keeping his front hip closed. A lot of the aforementioned traits can be seen in this clip from the AFL Championship Game: http://i.imgur.com/bopEWKq.gif The excessive hand movement. The front foot stride. Staying closed. Quick hands. Zone coverage. Yes, he pulls the ball too often instead of going with the pitch while his selection and patience will wreak havoc on his on-base percentage. As an aggressive hitter, he is unlikely to put up robust walk totals. He elevates too many fly balls with too little power, a factor that will likely impact his major league average, yet if you watched the final AFL game Rosario went 4-for-5 and hit everything on the screws. No lofted fly balls, these were hard, smashed line drives. Even the out he made was a shot to right field. “He’s refocused, he’s reenergized, he understands who he is now and where he is at and what his future is,” Radcliff said. “He got suspended, it took him a while to clean all that stuff up and play during the summer months. I think there is probably hope involved because there was a lot that has gone on in the last year and a half. I think that we hope that what we saw in the last 100 at-bats was more indicative of what is ahead for him that what we saw in those at-bats during the summer.” Performance at the plate is one thing, in the field is another. When creating his top 25 prospect from the Arizona Fall League list, MLB.com columnist Jim Callis noted that Rosario’s positional unknown looms as a big question mark. Radcliff and the Twins see that differently. Rosario has shown the ability to play anywhere at least at an adequate level, providing flexibility. “Versatility is a good thing when you are trying to break into a 25-man roster,” Radcliff said. But the clear vacancy right now is in left field for the Twins and Rosario has seen plenty of time in that area of the outfield. Is it possible he could be an option for 2015? “He can do a lot of things, he’s an advanced hitter for his experience level and where he is from,” said Radcliff. “He’s right on the cusp of being a good hitter, his power is probably down the road. All the little things: base-running, stolen bases, arm accuracy, technique, angles, routes in the outfield, those things progress, improve and get better along the way. Is he about ready to impact the major leagues? Yeah, I’d think most of us would agree with that. What role and how quick, that will all be determined in the coming months. He’s close, he’s right there on the edge.” Added to the team's 40-man roster on Thursday, when summarizing Rosario’s chances of reaching the highest level in the near future, Radcliff seemed to invoke personal responsibility for the talented 23-year-old. Possibly hinting at both his on and off the field performance: “It’s all up to him now.” Click here to view the article

From 2010 to 2013, he averaged 199 innings with a 3.67 FIP. Seems pretty consistent to me. I really don't think the Twins will make a huge commitment beyond the year for Masterson (or any free agent pitcher). They have plenty of talent behind him in the system.

Glaring flaws? There are plenty of people in the comment section who are trying to do that for me... I will say that the only "glaring flaw" is his struggle against left-handed batters (which was mentioned several times in the article) but I also highlighted a bit on Twitter yesterday: To me, that's still a big flaw. I know you mentioned his command but again, that circles back to his ability to retire left-handed hitters. Over his career RHB K%/BB% is 25%/8% while his LHB split is 15%/10%. He still walks a lot of both but he's able to generate more strikeouts against same-sided batters.

What's your point? In his four seasons prior to coming to Minnesota, Phil Hughes had a 4.64 ERA. Injuries did not play a role in his 2009 when he was a reliever. 2010 he had a 3.87 xFIP, 21% K% and a 0.70 HR/9. In 2012 he had a 4.15 xFIP, 17% K% & 0.79 HR/9. All good things. He's definitely susceptible to left-handed opponents, there's no denying that but, for the most part, his peripherals have been better than his ERA indicates.

On the contrary, he's had minimal injury issues: Could he be in line for some? Sure. I do believe that if there are any red flags, the Twins should be able to catch them on his medical records.