Parker Hageman

That's far too simplistic for a complicated game. 1. Hughes was hurt in 2015. After 2014, he did not revert back to his normal the next year -- he got substantially worse. 2. Suzuki's 2015 got away from him. He struggled with his mechanics all season, constantly moving his head during his swing. Once again, he addressed some of those issues this offseason and bounced back to have a better year this season than 2014. As far as Dozier's future, you're right, it's likely to regress next year simply because this was a career year and opponents will spend all winter figuring out a strategy to keep him from beating them -- just like they did at the end of last season when they went away-away-away and this season when they stayed away and shifted the infield until he proved he could beat it. In regards to this statement... ...I don't believe this is a fact at all. Baseball is organic in the sense that once a player has success, the opposing team is going to do everything it can to eliminate that strength and exploit another weakness. You ask any veteran player in the game and they will tell you they have to adjust every season. Unless you are Miguel Cabrera and a human cheat code.

Such as the juiced ball theory or...

In the top of the third inning on Monday night in Detroit, Brian Dozier tagged a 94 mile per hour Daniel Norris offering just over Comerica's left field wall and mere inches beyond a leaping Justin Upton's outstretched glove for home run number forty on the season. It marked the first time a member of the Minnesota Twins would reach that milestone since Harmon Killebrew did so on September 1, 1970. Dozier's current total is mind-boggling when you consider that on June 5 of this season, he had just six home runs to his name. (By comparison, Killebrew had 14.) Since then, Dozier has gone on a tear, launching 34 home runs. How did this drastic turnaround happen?A few weeks ago I stumbled across a post at Fangraphs.com that tried to explain why Brian Dozier was suddenly hitting every pitch 600 feet. It is something that Fangraphs does all the time. If there is a change in a player’s performance guys like Eno Sarris, Jeff Sullivan and August Fagerstrom do an excellent and thorough job of breaking down the ins-and-outs through stats and video. Occasionally when they are writing about a Twins player, they miss or overlook something that the local followers are aware of. It comes with the territory of trying to cover all 30 teams. This particular Dozier write-up was more geared for the roto reader -- those into fantasy baseball -- but the post dove head-long into a mechanical breakdown of Dozier swing. Based on this assessment, Sport Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe picked it up and used it as a part of his analysis in explaining why Dozier has been Baseball Jesus over the last few months. "[T]he 29 year old Dozier has done impressive damage thanks to an in-season mechanical adjustment," Jaffe wrote. Since many readers here also read a lot of Fangraph articles and writers like Jaffe, I figured I would take the time to make it clear what is and is not happening. As a preface, the author of the post is not wrong, per se. Fangraphs.com’s Scott Strandberg recognized that Brian Dozier has made some changes at the plate. There are some tweaks that are easily seen between his April stance and his August stance. It’s just that the conclusion is a bit off. The first change that Strandberg observed is that Dozier has indeed altered his pre-swing movements, adding a much more exaggerated bat tip prior to getting his hands back. You can easily see the differences in motion as he is now tipping his barrel all the way toward the catcher with a big sweeping movement: http://i.imgur.com/7afuWw3.gif http://i.imgur.com/rsYxTE5.gif That’s creating a rhythm to help time his movements with the pitcher. He's loose and oozing with confidence. In the screengrab from the Fangraphs article posted in the block quote above, the author notes that these are the two positions right before Dozier starts his swing in April and August. The conclusion is Dozier has brought his hands closer to his body and his bat upright right before he starts his swing. Depending on what you consider the start of his swing, it might not be wholly accurate. Backing out of the shot to where Dozier actually readies himself for the pitch, his hands and barrel are in a very similar position between the two dates. The newer model is slightly more upright than the previous version but in no way is it at the point that makes a significant difference to the overall swing. Certainly not to the extent that the screengrab would lead someone to believe. Download attachment: Dozier1.png When he gathers himself into the pre-launch position, with the front foot making contact with the ground, his barrel and hands are back to the exact same spot. Download attachment: Dozier2.png Dozier is doing something different prior to starting his swing that could be helping his timing which, in turn, may help him get to the pitch at the right moment. However, at all the critical portions of the swing, his hands and barrel are in the same spot. It is the second statement -- “This allows Dozier to get the barrel through the zone quicker, which goes a long way toward explaining the spike in hard contact, and his increased power on inside pitches” -- is a little off the mark. In regard to hitting the inside pitch, instead of focusing on the hand position in the screengrab, notice that Dozier is further off of the plate. In early May, Dozier explained to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger the reason he moved away from the plate. "The way my swing works is that I have to create space," Dozier said. "I like to be able to get extended, but I felt trapped and that I had to cheat, which caused me to drop [my hands]. So it's night and day now. I feel good." Moreover, getting the barrel through the zone quicker has never been Dozier’s problem nor is it a reason why he's jacking so many bombs right now. As Tom Brunansky told me this spring, Dozier’s biggest problem was that his barrel was not in the zone long enough. He was too quick with his barrel in the zone, the exact opposite of what the author believes is happening. The major difference between the two style of swings is a bit more complicated and harder to see in video than what was present. Dozier has been getting behind the ball more -- meaning his barrel has stayed in the zone longer than it did at the beginning of the year. This is the mechanical adjustment where the rubber meets the road for Brian Dozier. The pre-swing hand placement is mostly eyewash, a great timing mechanism that does add a small trigger difference but not an influential component of his power binge. The real question is, with 18 games remaining in 2016, does Dozier have it in him to break Harmon Killebrew's single-season record of 49? Click here to view the article

Right. You directly injured yourself on the field as a result of a play. That has some level of coverage. Pitchers who blow out their arms are not covered.

To clarify: MBA requires all teams to have accident insurance to cover for things like "ambulatory services" for on-field injuries. From my understanding, if you tear something on the field, cannot move and require immediate medical attention, that is covered. If you throw out your shoulder or tear your UCL in your elbow and need Tommy John surgery, that is not covered.

On Sunday's radio pregame show, Jack Morris was talking about Pat Light and his use of the splitter-forkball and the disappearance of the pitch in general because of injury concerns. In 2011, the New York Times documented some of that, citing teams like the Twins discouraging pitchers from throwing it. While the pitch MAY be potentially harmful, I still haven't seen any scientific evidence that it is somehow more or less dangerous than all the other pitches.

I can't see if Dahl does the "Tommy John Twist" in that picture. LOL.

Just to clarify my stance on this issue: 1. It's town ball. I'm not advocating there should be any regulations to deal with pitch counts/limits. Everyone is an adult and is aware of the potential dangers. In regards to Dahl specifically, good for him. That's a hell of a performance that he will retell over and over again, regardless how the rest of his career goes. 2. I think there definitely should be pitch limits for youth/HS although I'm not certain I agree with the proposed 105 limit at HS level. Every pitcher is different. Some work and condition extremely hard and can easily hit those numbers. Others are bean poles and put a lot of undue pressure on the arm. Feels like there should be more case-by-case basis on how far a kid can go but I suppose the league would rather take that responsibility out of the coach's hands. 3. I think colleges need to be more diligent about their pitch counts but not as much as HS obviously. Especially around tournament time when there is a need to lean on arms. With the condensed schedule at that time and the finite amount of arms, I don't know what the recommendation should be. Guys like Roach who have college years ahead of him plus a possibility of playing pro ball shouldn't be leaned on for 170 pitches.

This past Friday, in the thick of the Minnesota State Amateur Baseball Tournament, the Moorhead Brewers’ pitcher Tanner Dahl threw not one but two complete games. When all was said and done Dahl, a recent University of Jamestown (North Dakota) graduate, walked away with two Moorhead victories, allowing just one run while running up his pitch count to a whopping 222 pitches. While the monumental performance was celebrated by Minnesota baseball enthusiasts as gritty and gutty, outside of the bubble, people were head scratching the decision to let a pitcher toss that many pitches. “It was simultaneously impressive as it was embarrassing,” Driveline Baseball’s Kyle Boddy told me about his reaction to reading Dahl’s stat line. Boddy, who works with pitchers from all levels of the game and uses a data-driven, science-based approach at studying the arm, understands the mindset of pitchers who often throw all rational thought out the window when the adrenaline is pumping.Baseball observers work themselves in to a lather over two triple-digit figures when it comes to pitching -- velocity and pitch counts. Whenever a pitcher encroaches upon either, it becomes a topic of conversation. Dahl’s totals are unfathomable at any level in this day and age. The news of Dahl’s feat spread among Baseball Twitter and soon the influencers were levying their thoughts on the crazy total of pitches. “I’m curious,” ESPN.com’s Keith Law tweeted. “Will the Brewers pay for his rehab or surgery if he hurt himself today?” The answer, obviously, is no, the Brewers will not. Not in a direct, insurance-policy-gots-you-covered-Chief sort of way. However, knowing the camaraderie and community that goes into a Minnesota town ball team, they would assuredly organize a Kickstarter or (more likely) a beer bust to help offset medical expenses incurred because of his dedication to his team. Clearly, that was Law’s point. When someone signs the mandated player contract to participate in the Minnesota Baseball Association, the language says nothing about bankrolling any major surgeries and rehab that may come from participating in the game. The 23-year-old pitcher -- who was recently a part of the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks independent league team -- was risking his future baseball livelihood and would be left paying for the repairs if his arm blew out. “Pitcher abuse” is a hot button topic. If it wasn’t, Jeff Passan’s amazing book, The Arm, would not be a New York Times bestseller. Each year during the NCAA tournament we see reports of a school having a pitcher throw 150 or more pitches only to throw again in another day or two. This season alone, a Minnesota State-Mankato pitcher caught everyone’s attention by tossing 171 pitches in an 11-inning game. On May 19, the Mavericks’ Dalton Roach threw 171 pitches in a victory over St Cloud State in NCAA D-II Regional play. Meanwhile SCSU’s starter, Reese Gregory, threw an efficient 121 pitches, just for comparison. Roach told the media after the game that he felt fine and it was OK because he threw mostly fastballs (“The single most dangerous pitch out there right now is a hard fastball. That’s typically the pitch a player gets hurt on,” Dr Pearce McCarty III, one of the Minnesota Twins’ orthopedic surgeons, told the Star Tribune recently). People called for his coach’s head. To prove how fine his arm was after the outing that incited all the pearl-clutching, a little over a week later Roach was pitching in the Northwoods League where, in his first start on May 31, he threw 101 pitches and struck out an Eau Claire Express-record 18 (he started the game by striking out the first 12 batters he faced). Roach, who is heading into his third year of college ball, would make one more start for the Express before being shut down because of an imposed innings limit. Maybe Roach is one of the genetically lucky ones -- the proverbial rubber arm. The guy whose mechanics and muscle structure refuse to break. (Or maybe the wear-and-tear just hasn’t caught up to him yet.) Still, the idea of risking his arm for a Division II championship feels short-sighted. As Boddy put it, almost all pitchers have the mentality of *wanting* to keep throwing but someone (I don’t know, a paid coach perhaps) has to be the adult in that situation. That burden of deciding when to lift the pitcher will likely be removed from the coach’s responsibility this coming season, at least at the high school level. In the Minnesota high school ranks, the state organization is currently weighing the idea of setting a pitch restriction for the young, developing arms. As it stands now, the rules are written in a way that says a pitcher cannot throw more than 14 innings in three days. That is a large enough loophole for a bullpen car to drive through. As written, it means a high school pitcher could essentially pull a Tanner Dahl, throwing back-to-back complete 7-inning games while amassing 200+ pitches. There’s nothing to stop a coach from doing that beside some attentive and vocal parents or their own conscience. It should be noted that the state’s coaches association already has suggested guidelines designed by the Mayo Clinic for pitch counts for their high school players posted on their website, such as a max of 90 pitches for a 17-to-18-year-old on four days of rest, but that’s like a beer company suggesting a fraternity “drink responsibly” during a toga party. That is why the Minnesota State High School League is taking measures to correct that. In October, the state coaches association will discuss the proposed pitch limits which caps the amount at 105 for the upperclassmen (Alabama has a 120 pitch limit) and 85 for the younger grades with required rest days in between outings. How would that process work? The high school association in Illinois recently outlined a similar proposal, limiting their pitchers to a 115-pitch count. It would require teams to keep track of both theirs and the opposing team’s pitch count, and compare pitch count totals during even-numbered innings. The oversight is needed. These are all good steps for the developing pitcher with a future ahead of him. While it makes sense to monitor a college pitcher whose financial aid or potential professional career may be tied to being able to pitch (and not recovering from arm surgery) or keeping the teenage hurler injury-free so that he may have better looks from colleges and the professional ranks, amateur players like Dahl and others operate in a Lord of the Flies-like town ball baseball society. From personal experience, I played on a team with a pitcher who had a decent college career and played for several years in independent ball prior to joining the team. Despite the fact that he was retired from his professional ranks, he was no less tenacious in his approach. He was six-foot-plus, the size of a fullback and had legs like sequoias. On his day to pitch, he had such intense, laser focus that I was positive that somewhere in the universe another planet exploded from its force. It was going to take a tranq gun to pry the ball out of his hand. He could, and routinely did, throw over 120 pitches a game. There’s no question in my mind that someone was constantly asking Dahl if he felt all right each time he came back in the dugout beyond the seventh inning of the first game and each inning into the second game. One of the team’s administrators tweeted back at Law and said that their number two starter was ready to go the moment Dahl said he was done. Hell, even former major league catcher Chris Coste plays on Dahl’s team (he smacked a dinger in the tournament). There were plenty of grown adults well aware of the situation. At 23 years old, you probably still want to play some baseball in the summer for a few more years, or eventually play catch with your kid, or not pay for major surgery. For outsiders, risking all that for a Class “B” town ball title feels like a silly gamble. That being said, if he does blow out his arm because of the 222-pitch day, Dahl will always be able to retell the story about the day he threw back-to-back complete games and helped lift his team into the 2016 championship game. Click here to view the article

Lewin Diaz was definitely one of my five favorite swingers coming into the season -- http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/five-hitters-deserving-of-your-attention-r4332 (four out of five ain't bad) -- good to see that he continued to mash.

As much as I like Bautista and having his presence around the lineup and clubhouse, I'm not sure there is room for him in the outfield -- as the Twins current envision things. He's another corner outfielder/first base/DH type that the system is lousy with. Now, if the Twins move Rosario/Kepler or someone else this offseason for pitching, Bautista would make some sense. I don't know what he is looking for but I'm sure it is a hefty price tag after the years he has had and, at age-35, he's prime for regression. How's that for talking in a full circle?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ But I will say, the Blue Jays routinely use Jose Bautista in the leadoff spot. The difference, I think, is that the Blue Jays have two or three other 30 home run bats behind him. What a terrible problem to have.

As the Minnesota Twins slipped across Lake Erie and back into the United States on Sunday night following a three-game series in Toronto, the pitching staff would not be blamed if they sat the entire flight curled in the fetal position. The stats were horrific. Over the weekend series the Blue Jays mashed nine home runs, ten doubles and scampered for one triple. They compiled 38 hits overall and plated 32 runs. They walked more than they struck out. This was nothing new. Since the beginning of 2015 Toronto has out-slugged, out-homered and out-scored everybody. They also have the second-highest on-base percentage, falling just being the Red Sox. The series against the Twins was just business as usual for the pride of Canada. When it comes to hitting, the Toronto Blue Jays just get it.Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky doesn’t think Toronto’s style of offense -- from the big movements and swings from likes of Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and others -- is anything new to the club. “It started a long time ago,” said Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky. “I think that philosophy started when Cito Gaston was there, when he was their hitting guy. Then it kinda took off when Cito was the manager and then they had Dwayne Murphy there, you know Murph had a leg kick. I think you can go back to the days when George Bell, Lloyd Moseby and Jesse Barfield and the era that I played, those were the same type of guys, a bunch of free swingers.” It is true that Gaston and Murphy are credited with helping Bautista unlock his swing that has resulted in 243 home runs in 6 years -- the most in baseball in that time -- but there are also guys like Donaldson who refined his mechanics while in Oakland and other players such as Danny Valencia, Chris Colabello and Kevin Pillar who have patterned some elements of their swing after Donaldson (in conjunction with the Blue Jays coaching staff). After all, the Blue Jays third baseman blew the lid off the hitting community with his recent breakdown of his process on the MLB Network. That ideology goes beyond just grip-and-rip, what Donaldson talks about is closer to a cheat code. Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe agrees that it is invaluable to have players around who like to bounce swing talk off one another. Brian Dozier said he learned how to decimate fastballs by watching and picking the brains of Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham. If it is Bautista and Donaldson encouraging organizational newcomers like Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki to add more rhythm to their swing or transfer more weight on their back legs before driving at the the ball, that type of communication can influence the makeup of an entire lineup. Plouffe, who the Twins drafted out of Crespi Carmelite High School in 2004, highlighted some of the differences in philosophy between the two organizations. Early in his development, Plouffe said there was an emphasis placed on just making contact and that came with a request to alter his swing. “I remember coming into my rookie ball season and I went and just played,” Plouffe said. “I thought I did a pretty good job. Then the following spring training our hitting coordinator, [Jim Dwyer], wanted to change some things and I was up for the change. I wanted to produce and do well by the team and the organization. He started to have me do a toe-tap thing. It started to evolve from there. I didn’t really have success with [the toe tap] and as I got a little older and further up the line, I realized that you have to do what’s comfortable for you.” Plouffe’s story does not differ much from that of Byron Buxton. Buxton says that the Twins staff changed him in rookie ball, slowing down his movement and installing a toe-tap stride. Four years later, Buxton is struggling to rediscover his original swing which made him the most sought after draft pick in 2012. Plouffe eventually landed on a leg lift as a timing mechanism, which coincides when he started hitting for power. According to Plouffe, Brunansky calls his swing “awkward” and “unorthodox”. The Twins do have plenty of hitters who come into the system, either by draft, trade or signing, who have incorporated the big movements in their swing similar to what is seen from the Blue Jays lineup. Some hitters who have passed through the organization have complained that the Twins have tried to get them to eliminate that portion of their swing, sending them into disastrous stretches because they are trying to overhaul a key component of their swing in season. Brunansky said that is not his philosophy and that the organization does not tell their hitters to tone down the swing. “One thing is you never want to take away somebody’s ability,” said Brunansky. “If they want to use a leg kick and that’s something they feel good about and that’s who they are, we will certainly work with it. [The leg kick] is gonna continue until they prove that they can’t [use it]. That’s the one thing once you get to this level up here, the game dictates whether you can or can’t.” In regards to copying the Blue Jays’ approach, Brunansky bristles a bit. “I think that they come in free to not worry about certain things,” Brunansky said of Toronto’s organizational hitting philosophy. “They’re not worried about striking out. They are not worried about putting the ball in play in certain situations. They are going to go attack. They figure they are going to do enough damage.” Brunansky said that differs from his philosophy, which places priority on not striking out in key situations. The Blue Jays approach, he believes, will lead to more strikeouts. “I’m not a big fan of strikeouts and I know the game has progressed to the point where strikeouts have become commonplace,” he emphasized. “I certainly don’t want it to be such a negative where hitters fear getting in the box with two strikes. I don’t like strikeouts with runners on base -- and certainly not with a runner on third. And I get it, you are not always going to put the ball in play with a runner on third but that has been a backbreaker for us.” It is a misconception that the Blue Jays’ approach equates to strikeouts. After all, since the start of the 2015 season, they have struck out in 20% of their plate appearances, 20th of the 30 teams. And their contributors in Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion all have strikeout rates well below the league’s average. Meanwhile, the Twins’ just-put-it-play mindset has led to a 21.5% strikeout rate, 9th highest out of 30. The Twins have had a history of players who have had minimal, foot-down-early approaches over the last decade plus. Joe Mauer excels at the craft of hitting by reducing his movement. Miguel Sano’s approach involves minimal movements. Brian Dozier’s power numbers are a testament to the notion that you don’t have to have any leg kick if you do everything else right in the swing. In the modern game, however, that kind of thinking has gone by the wayside, along with pitch-to-contact pitchers. “There is a lot more video available now, I think people understand now that you need to get to a certain spot but you can get to that spot in a lot of different ways,” Plouffe said. “In my opinion you don’t want to conform everybody to the same type of swing because everybody has grown up swinging differently. We’ve swung for 27 years now and it’s who we are. If you can get to that certain spot, people are realizing there are a million different ways to get there.” Click here to view the article

Per reporters: Twins are sending him and Tyler Duffey down to Rochester.

Still not fixed, btw.

Gotcha.

What? I'm not being technical. The point is the Twins are being too technical, and in this case, feeding him false information.

Another interesting tidbit is Berrios' release point has dropped some in August. Obviously there is not a ton of data from earlier in his development (mostly AZ Fall and MiLB All Star Game appearances) and the drop is roughly .3 inches but the Twins have driven home finding his release point.

Most Pitches Pulled, Last 30 Days: 1. Carlos Santana: 64% 2. BRIAN DOZIER 62% 3. Danny Espinosa 60% (Career Avg 51%) 4. Edwin Encarnacion 58% 5. Gregory Polanco 57% League Avg.............40% Don't believe the hype. As he has said, they've worked on keeping his barrel in the zone longer which has resulted in better struck balls going the other way versus rolling over on them, but his bread and butter is being able to yank pitches into the seats.

That was the best thing he said.

Let's just summarize all the (known) advice Jose Berrios has been given: 1. Ervin Santana told him he was "opening up his front hip too fast, spinning away from the target". http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/15/twins-using-village-to-help-struggling-jose-berrios/ 2. Neil Allen told him he needs to pick up the tempo. http://www.startribune.com/twins-ask-jose-berrios-to-pick-up-the-pace-on-the-mound/390656141/ 3. In the same article, Allen also told Berrios that wrapping the ball behind his back was hurting his command. 4. Bert Blyleven had told him to work on his release point. 5. And, finally, Blyleven said that they were working on pushing off that pitching rubber. That's a lot of things for a pitcher to take with him into a start.

Overall point: "pushing off the rubber" -- as he was describing it during the broadcast -- does little for power or command. I know (hope?) Bert means something different that what he explained on TV when he and/or Neil Allen were working with Berrios in the bullpen.