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Parker Hageman

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Everything posted by Parker Hageman

  1. And people wonder why strikeouts are going up.
  2. Here's a great piece of advice from a professional player for pitchers trying to learn or coaches trying to teach players to throw a better two-seam fastball. Houston Astros' pitcher Lance McCullers Jr, who recently diced the Twins lineup in spring training action, has incorporated a new grip on his two-seam fastball that is giving him (so far anyways) superior movement over his two-seamer a year ago. I mean, just watch this unfair action he dumped on the poor, unsuspecting Ehire Adrianza. That's some filth flarn filth. Fortunately for us, McCullers created a video breakdown of what he is doing differently when he grips the ball. The essential takeaway is that (1) McCullers is now tucking his thumb under the ball and (2) placing his index finger on the seam move and using that to generate the push, helping create the spin necessary to dive back across the zone. In short, McCullers is trying to achieve laminar flow to create the nasty movement we see above. For further background on this concept, be sure to watch Cleveland's Trevor Bauer . McCullers was asked on Twitter if pitchers are constantly tinkering with their grips throughout the season. "As easy as that would seem, we only get so many throws in season to work on our stuff," McCullers responded. "That time is usually trying to improve on what you already know. Trying a new grip and pitch takes time and reps only the offseason can really provide." For more pitching insight, be sure to follow Pitching Ninja on Twitter.
  3. Trevor May also took up Pilates. That...well, that didn't lead to a breakout year.
  4. The reality is, everyone is on social media platforms. My understanding is that they liked that Lewis stayed away from it.
  5. One of the things the Cubs did when Epstein took over was to instruct their scouting staff to find not only high caliber players but HIGH CHARACTER players as well when they were drafting. From the NY Times: I can't help but think about this when considering Royce Lewis. The Twins' decision to select Lewis over the higher profile Hunter Greene may come down to just that. Insiders say the Twins staff preferred Lewis' makeup to Greene's, citing Lewis' lack of social media presence, staying a safe distance out of the limelight, and a solid family life. There is probably more details behind that selection (after all, the Twins went heavier into the analytics side of the draft than they ever did before). This isn't to say Greene lacks character (he is highly involved in charity work already), but there was something about Lewis that separated him from Greene.
  6. While I agree with a lot of what is being said here, statistically speaking, there is little upgrade to be had between the Twins OF defense and the Rays, after all, the Rays had the second best defensive unit in baseball last year. According to Runs Saved, the Rays were the 2nd best outfield unit (45 RS) and the Twins were 4th (23 RS). Rays' center fielder Kevin Keirmaier had 22 RS while Buxton had 24. While I do think Buxton is a superior defender the difference is not that significant, I don't see this moving the needle in anyway for Odorizzi.
  7. Yeah, again, it's a common mistake because of the movement, but there's no grip evidence that he throws a splitter (unlike Odorizzi). And part of the reason I brought it up in the comments section was because I noticed Rhett and Aaron's articles citing that as such. As a background: MLB's pitchfx data uploads into a raw format without any cleaning and labels a lot of his pitches as a splitter based on algorithms on those movement metrics (which is why BaseballSavant.com's data has him throwing a splitter instead of a changeup). I would guess Rhett Bollinger simply looked there for information (or maybe some other MLB database) which carries the raw pitch data. When the Twins first signed him I initially went there and assumed he threw a split-change. Places like BrooksBaseball.com (and Baseball Prospectus) employ methods to clean it up to ensure pitches are categorized accurately. Those guys actually go through images and get confirmation on what type of pitch each pitcher has before categorizing them. It's the nerdiest of baseball data nerd stuff. So when you look at Fangraphs' "Pitch Info Pitch Type" section under a player's page, that's the data that has been scrubbed. Pitch Info is the group that runs Brooks Baseball. Under the generic Pitch Type section for Sanchez and Odorizzi, it has both pitchers throwing Changeups and no Splitters. However, snce Pitch Info knows Odorizzi throws his with a split grip, they have moved those pitches to the Split Fastball category. It's splitting hairs at this point (pun intending) because if you get the same movement regardless of the grip, should the pitch be categorized by the movement or the grip?
  8. Excellent write-up. I also want to stress how good Gibson's slider was last year. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/952241529745231872
  9. Just a point of clarification: Sanchez does not throw a splitter or a split change. He has a circle grip that moves more similarly to a splitter movement -- which is probably why Fangraphs has it quantified as such.
  10. What is smart, does not necessarily make for more interesting baseball, though.Diversity of swings and styles of play are dying. To each their own on what constitutes interesting baseball, I guess. Everyone has the same swing, and fewer and fewer seem capable of adapting it if the game situation simply calls for putting the ball in play. I don't think this is the case at all. No one would mistake Justin Turner's swing for JD Martinez's. There are different components. Their ultimate goal is the same but the methods to reach that goal are different. And the strike-out rates, which this evolution contributes to, are already at absurd levels. I find it interesting that people frequently blame hitters' approaches for the strikeout rate, as if the pitchers had no influence over this. Velocity has increased one mile per hour (from 91.2 to 92.8) since 2010. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs altogether and more sliders/curveballs than ever before. What's more, we're seeing more and more specialized relievers brought in more frequently. There's more data and video now to game plan a lineup's weakness. Hitters definitely are trading strikeouts for power but more there are savvy teams like the Cubs and Astros have focused on cutting down strikeouts. Cubs players take B-hacks designed to get the ball in play. Astros have a similar approach that helped them win the World Series a year after posting the highest strikeout rate. Here's more on the Cubs' 'B' hack approach...
  11. I don't know what this is driving at. Can you explain?
  12. Data has shown that a combination of launch angle (typically over 10 degrees and under 30) and exit velocity (typically 90 MPH+) results in hits more often. The idea isn't new -- hit the ball hard on a line and they usually drop -- but now it can be quantified and getting the ball in the air has that much more value. So then the question became how do we get hitters to live in that range more often? Some have gone through extensive swing retooling (i.e. Justin Turner, JD Martinez, etc) to meet that criteria later in their careers. Baseball is realizing that these methods should be incorporated earlier in a player's development. The "Wall of Groundball Prevention" is just one means to force hitters into making the necessary adjustments. There are plenty of other simple tricks. For instance, Bobby Tewksbary, the hitting instructor who worked with Josh Donaldson and Chris Colabello, would string up lines around his batting cages to denote where the optimal launch angles is. I hope that clarified some of this for you.
  13. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in regards to Eric Hosmer. Over the last two years, only Dee Gordon has hit a higher percentage of grounders.
  14. What follows is not a Twins article -- more on that topic at a later date -- but rather a story about how the game is changing below the surface. This is a story about a bunch of screens set up around a baseball diamond. It is a story about how, just as the number crunchers influenced the front office changes over the last decade, a new wave of coaches are making significant changes in the player development systems. Unless you are a real Baseball America stan, you may have missed this trend happening across baseball right now. More and more, teams have increased in the number of college coaches hired to help with player development. The Minnesota Twins added several coaches this offseason from that rank including, but not limited to, Tanner Swanson, Pete Maki and Dan Ramsey among others. In some cases, the Twins hired for a newly created position (catching instructor) and others they replaced long-time coaches with someone with newer ideas.In some ways, major league baseball grew stale in the sense that development people continued to trot out the same methods in spite of a game that was changing around them. Those who failed to adapt were not retained, and younger coaches from the amateur ranks replaced the lifers.Offensively, new data was telling people that hitting the ball in the air was a much more successful means of achieving positive impact yet old school training methods were still implemented. As Derek Falvey told me this winter, he had contact with numerous college coaches from attending various conferences that were rife with new ideas and new methods to training players. These sharp individuals were seen as an untapped competitive advantage. In 2016, while working as an assistant coach for the University of Iowa, Pete Lauritson unveiled what he called "The Wall of Ground Ball Prevention" -- a system of setting up screens around the infield to encourage hitters to increase lift during batting practice. This was well received among the coaching and hitting ranks. It is amazing how ideas from outside pro ball make their way inside. This won’t be the end of having new and interesting training methods spill over into professional baseball. With the increase in data and the greater understanding of what makes a player better (higher exit velocity, launch angle, spin rate, etc), will come new methods to improve those areas. Right now there are thousands of college coaches, hitting and pitching instructors trying to solve those issues. Finding the right ones for the organization could help produce talent at a rate superior than others. In many ways this is a new Moneyball era. Click here to view the article
  15. In some ways, major league baseball grew stale in the sense that development people continued to trot out the same methods in spite of a game that was changing around them. Those who failed to adapt were not retained, and younger coaches from the amateur ranks replaced the lifers.Offensively, new data was telling people that hitting the ball in the air was a much more successful means of achieving positive impact yet old school training methods were still implemented. As Derek Falvey told me this winter, he had contact with numerous college coaches from attending various conferences that were rife with new ideas and new methods to training players. These sharp individuals were seen as an untapped competitive advantage. In 2016, while working as an assistant coach for the University of Iowa, Pete Lauritson unveiled what he called "The Wall of Ground Ball Prevention" -- a system of setting up screens around the infield to encourage hitters to increase lift during batting practice. This was well received among the coaching and hitting ranks. The beauty is in its simplicity. If the goal is to increase launch angle, a coach needs to establish practices that would make players adjust their swing patterns to achieve that goal. It is one thing to say “hit the ball in the air” but it is much better when a player adapts on their own through repetition and instant feedback. It may be uncomfortable at first but after several days, weeks, months, it should become second nature to find the right swing pattern and optimal contact point. After all, the body organizes itself to achieve a desired goal. Lauritson did not spend his time inside pro ball. He spent his time trying to understand what made college players better. “My evolution into this is a little uncommon,” Lauritson said in 2017. “I didn’t play professionally and wasn’t even a good player – I was just OK. I made some sacrifices to try to figure out what really happens within a swing and what doesn’t. I wanted guys to learn this information. It wasn’t just studying baseball, it was studying golf, anatomy, psychology. How are going guys going to memorize this over and over?” Committing the act to muscle memory is wildly important for an athlete. How will you get a hitter to “memorize” the act of hitting a ball above a 10 degree launch angle? Build a wall. Lauritson was eventually hired by the Cleveland Indians -- a forward-thinking organization when it came to player development having already pulled multiple coaches out from amatuer baseball -- and brought his ideas to the Mohaning Valley Scrappers of the New York-Penn League as a hitting coach. Yet there were still those who scoffed at the practice. Dragging screens all over the infield? Pfft. All you will accomplish is increasing the number of pop-ups, critics said. Or, worse, there’s nothing wrong with hitting ground balls. Baseball, it is said, pivots with the efficiency of an oil tanker. It typically takes years before new ideas move past the old guard of players and coaches who are frequently resistant to change. The rise of the elevation nation, in comparison, caught on quickly. Less than two seasons ago, launch angle was not a part of the common fan’s lexicon. Now you cannot make it through a broadcast without it mentioned. “You can’t slug by hitting balls on the ground. You have to get the ball in the air if you want to slug, and guys who slug stick around, and guys who don’t, don’t,” Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner explained. Even lifer and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle was praising loft. “Your OPS is in the air,” he told reporters. Fast forward to spring training 2018: Tampa Bay Times beat writer Marc Tompkins tweeted out a picture of the Rays using the “Wall of Ground Ball Prevention” in their camp. It is amazing how ideas from outside pro ball make their way inside. This won’t be the end of having new and interesting training methods spill over into professional baseball. With the increase in data and the greater understanding of what makes a player better (higher exit velocity, launch angle, spin rate, etc), will come new methods to improve those areas. Right now there are thousands of college coaches, hitting and pitching instructors trying to solve those issues. Finding the right ones for the organization could help produce talent at a rate superior than others. In many ways this is a new Moneyball era.
  16. Prefacing this by saying super loud that THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A PITCHING PROSPECT. Especially at 18 years old. Enlow has two plus pitches but ultimately needs a third and some seasoning before you can say he's got it. It might seem easy to take a right-handed curveball specialist and say he's a Tyler Duffey type but that's doing a disservice to where Enlow's curveball is at right now. In his senior year, his curveball's spin rate was the highest in the draft class, measuring over 2700 RPMs on average. That puts him in some elite territory immediately. MLB's average curveball spin is 2490 in 2017. By comparison, Tyler Duffey's curveball spins at a 2475 rate. It's not as sharp, it's not a late-breaking. It's a good pitch, to be sure, but we're talking two different types of curveballs. Again -- TNSTAAPP -- but we're talking an 18-year-old with two plus tools.
  17. Major league hitters do not hit or lay off of good curves. They hit or lay off mediocre ones.
  18. I think y'all should watch Enlow in action before you make up your mind. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/963089845097844736
  19. I think there is a big unknown in the public realm about what Zack Littell is packing on the mound, mostly because the gen pop doesn't have access to spin rates and the other statcast metrics that teams do, but I tend to think the Twins tapped him because of some of those underlying metrics that they have access to which we do not. The Twins have had their system-wide trackman in the minors before a lot of other teams and probably have a longer background of data of those opponents. MLB Pipeline alluded to it but it sounds like Littell has one of those lower velo/high spin fastballs which gets plenty of swinging strikes and weak contact. I think most prospect evaluators have viewed Littell's curveball very much as a plus pitch. Small sample sure but I think you can get a feel for the movement and the hitter's reaction on these two clips. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/891671501354790913\ So we don't know where LIttell's fastball spin rate sits. Let's assume it is above 2450 RPM making it one of the top rates in the league. It is really kind of hard to find an existing comp for that -- a high-spin, low heat velo fastball and big curve. Most of the ones that sort of fall under that are aging variety (Matt Cains, Jake Peavys) or are left-handed. Zack Grienke has also been that pitcher with his fastball the last five seasons, but he also has three plus pitches to draw from after that. What's more is all of those pitchers once had much better velocity and grew experience before reducing to that velocity level. The younger(ish) upside comp might be Dylan Bundy, with a low-90s fastball and big curveball, or perhaps Tyler Chatwood. The wild card here is if he can hone in on that third pitch. Some evaluators have said the changeup looks good at times and he's just started using the slider more. If not, a two-pitch combination can play well as a reliever. He's a super intriguing prospect to me and I'm looking forward to seeing more from him.
  20. Mejia's fastball is super interesting. It's one of the highest spin rates of all left-handed pitchers in baseball (sixth highest behind Minor, Chapman, Rivero, Hill and Hand). Typically that equates to higher swings and misses. For the majority of the year, that wasn't happening (he had a 4% swinging strike rate on his fastball the first two months of the season). When he changed his mechanics and had the higher arm slot, his swing and misses on the fastball grew. In September his swinging strike rate was 10%. Now, the old scouting adages is that you don't put too much stock in September numbers (what with call-ups and teams trying to audition prospects for the next year and the small sampling of three outings) so it's entirely possible that those are inflated somewhat. That said, Mejia also made enough adjustments to potentially build on this for next year.
  21. Until the day they release the flying cars and automated strike zones*, a catcher who receives the ball the right way is going to be more valuable than those that do not. Like it, lump it, make your mind up to it because it's here to stay. *Baseball Prospectus today just published a detailed look at why this is too complicated to roll out any time soon. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/
  22. Incorrect. Most catchers I've spoken to hate the term "pitch framing". The correct term is "receiving the ball the right way". That doesn't just mean "stealing strikes". It also means keeping pitches in the zone from being called balls. This was as significant problem for the Twins from 2014-2016: They'd lose more pitches in the strike zone than any other teams. The Astros were one of the best at the "framing" statistic in that time. Here's what Castro said about what the Astros' focused on: “Keeping strikes in the strike zone,” he explained. “Not doing anything to the pitch to take away from its quality. If it is on the corner and it is breaking one direction, you are trying to counteract the break so it doesn’t, by the time you catch the ball, pull your arm out of the zone.” It's not about yanking a glove back across the plate -- it's about receiving the ball in a manner that maximizes the pitcher's intent.
  23. Yes and no. In the general sense, yes, outside of two teams, everyone else overlooked him. Didn't even bother to actively scout him. In that way, all the teams said "no". As Thome discussed in a book about the Cleveland Indians, there were only two scouts that were tracking him and having conversations: the Twins' Ellsworth Brown and Cleveland's Tom Couston. Brown actually presented Thome as an option and Twins directly said no. In that way, the Twins are really the only team to have said "no".
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