Parker Hageman

I've talked about this ad nauseam but that's pretty much the difference in swings like Kepler's versus someone who is a barrel-turner. Check out Rosario's ability to cover fastballs up versus Kepler's. Rosario's process is to turn the barrel whereas Kepler's is more of a standard hands-to-ball-barrel-comes-with approach this allows him to get to fastballs up. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1009646380384743425 The other thing that stands out about Kepler that I haven't heard anyone talk about is how much Kepler's head moves from the delivery to the point of contact. Kepler starts tall and then crumples his head down, changing planes. Rosario, for all his movement, keeps his head on the same level. To Kepler's credit, he's still stinging the ball and making a very high amount of contact per swing. I just wonder if the movement might also have some impact on his contact point. According to StatCast, Kepler has one of the highest amounts of balls put in play on fastballs that were hit "poorly/under" the ball. These are balls that are hit at a launch angle that result in very few hits (sky balls, long flies and infield flies). I don't know how much this actually means to a player's skills as just above Kepler in the second highest spot is Cleveland's Jose Ramirez, who is having a very fine year. Last year's king of poorly/under hit balls was Francisco Lindor. This year Kepler has 66 of those types of batted balls and he currently has that amount this year. There might be hitters who barrel up balls more often and then just miss to result in the poorly/under ball while other hitters might barrel fewer pitches and actually skew towards the poorly/under hit ball for better results. For instance, while Lindor led baseball in poorly/under hit fastballs in 2017, he still managed to barrel 24 fastballs total (20th best in MLB). Kepler, on the other hand, barreled just 8 fastballs in 2017 (222nd). This year he's barred 10 fastballs (147th) whereas the guy ahead of him in the poorly/under hit chart this year -- Jose Ramirez -- has barreled 27 fastballs (7th best). There's so much left to learn/understand about the StatCast data and how it applies to real life baseball but there's a hugely untapped market there.

Yes, Kepler has put balls in play within the right confines of exit velocity and launch angle that would normally gather hits by the bushel. Kepler's issues is the distribution of those batted balls. This season, hitters that put the ball in play at 90 MPH or high with a launch angle of 12 degrees or higher had a batting average of .462. Benintendi had a very good .571 average on 105 balls in play. Kepler, on the other hand, is hitting .357 on 98 balls in play. That was 282nd out of 300 qualified hitters. Some might say that is bad luck. After all, you square a ball more often than not it should be a hit. Kepler's problem is where he is hitting those "optimal" batted balls. Take a look at Kepler and Benintendi's spray chart on balls hit over 90 MPH and over 12 degrees: There are a few things working for Benintendi that isn't for Kepler: 1. Benintendi has a nice inside-out swing and times and can drive the ball the other way. Some with that side-spinning hooking doubles away from the left fielder. Combine that approach with the green monster and you get plenty of doubles. Because of this, Benintendi is hitting a robust 484/474/720 compared to Kepler's 264/257/403 opposite field line. And it's not as if playing at Fenway would enhance Kepler's current numbers -- he just hasn't hit the ball well that direction (or much at all). 2. Kepler hits a lot those balls to the big part of the field. Those don't play well at Target Field for left-handed batters. Whereas Benintendi is hitting 491 on those 90+/12+ balls, Kepler is hitting 152 on those, the lowest among qualified hitters. 3. Benintendi gets a lot of top spin singles -- those that fall in front of the outfielders. I do want to talk a little about what Kepler has been doing well that has led to his current hot streak. On June 28th, Kepler finished the day hitting 216/304/394 on the season. Around that date two critical things started to happen that has influenced his hitting. The first is Kepler increased his selectivity – toning down his swing rate: The second part might not be his own doing but, for whatever reason, Kepler is getting a ton of fastballs thrown at him. In the season’s previous stretch, Kepler hit just .200 against fastballs. After June 28th, however, with a more discerning eye and more fastballs delivered his way, he hit .294 on fastballs. When I was breaking down Kepler’s swing a few weekends ago on KFAN (sick radio brag) I talked about how, while Kepler’s swing goes against the new convention of thinking (get behind, get on plane early a la Eddie Rosario), Kepler has a good swing on pitches that fall within his whomping zone (middle-in and down). My theory was that if he just honed in on those pitches, he’d start putting up big numbers. This might be the result of that – he’s spitting on pitches he doesn’t like and driving the ones he does.

Willians Astudillo is one savvy motherforker. He’s not even 27 years old yet but he’s got the savvy moves of a much older, wiser veteran. We already know that Astudillo is sneaky. Behind the plate during spring training, Astudillo caught the Yankees’ Shane Robinson . It was a move Astudillo has pulled out several times in his winter league career in Venezuela. On Wednesday night, however, he was at third base and the crafty Astudillo pulled the hidden ball trick out in broad daylight.First, take a look at the play Let’s break this sucker down for a moment. The throw comes in from right field, relayed to third where Tigers’ prospect Dawel Lugo had just advanced. Astudillo, who catches the ball on a hop, looks around to find former Twins player Doug Mientkiewicz, the manager and third base coach of the Toledo Mudhens, approaching Lugo for a quick chat and confidence builder at the bag. Astudillo told MiLB.com’s Josh Horton afterward that this was when he knew they had a chance to pull it off. "As soon as I got the ball, I looked at the third-base coach [Toledo skipper Doug Mientkiewicz] and the runner, and they were looking different ways. Petit was the only one who knew that I had the ball in the glove, and then the pitcher, and it worked. It worked the whole time," Astudillo told Horton. On the mound at the time was recent acquisition Chase De Jong. From De Jong’s perspective, he thought Astudillo was messing around. "I'm starting to walk back to the mound and I'm upset. I'm asking [Astudillo] for the ball, and he sort of just gives me a quick head shake, like a quick 'no,'" the right-hander told reporters. "And he's kind of a jokester, so I'm thinking, 'All right, now's not the best time to be joking with me.' So I ask for the ball again and he shakes his head again and I'm like, 'OK, something's up.'” It was great salesmanship all around as Lugo, of course, started to wander off the base and Astudillo quickly applied the tag. It’s a rarity for sure, but things like the hidden ball trick are one of the reasons why baseball might just be the greatest game on Earth. Click here to view the article

The venerable Sid Hartman spoke with Derek Falvey following the flurry of moves at the trade deadline. Obviously no baseball executive is going to say "we screwed up, we screwed up real bad, Sid" while banging their head on the desk, sobbing lightly into the sleeve of their favorite blazer in front of a live microphone. So it should go without saying that Falvey is currently happy with what the team acquired. As far as we know.That being said, the Twins did land two arms that Falvey and company are excited about. Pitching prospects are notoriously volatile and the attrition rate is high but it doesn't hurt to stockpile as many as you can. I mean, even Alcala was immediately placed on the DL with a tricep strain. Still, given their ages and radar readings, both Duran and Alcala are sexy AF right now. Until they are not. Remember when the Twins traded for Alex Meyer? So -- for now -- these arms are sexy. In addition to the trades, Falvey was also pressed about the team's future, especially in light of the numerous expiring contracts, leaving the Twins with an estimated $30 million-to-$55 million coming off the payroll heading into 2019. It's a non-answer answer but an obvious one. Will the Twins be active in the free agent market this offseason? Sure, why not? Will they target someone they want to sign to a long-term deal or will they try to piecemeal creative one-year deals with various options? Who knows? The 2018 season was disappointing, yes. There were high expectations. Hell, I would have lost my house hammering the over on the Vegas-set 83-win mark had I followed through with my own proclamation. Now, based on Baseball Prospectus' current projections, the Twins are currently on a 76-win pace and even that feels like a best-case scenario going forward. This does not mean 2019 will be a continuation of this dreck. The team still has a young, talented core albeit one that stumbled this season. Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton (when not hurt) and Miguel Sano (when properly conditioned and not hurt) are still a solid foundation. Find the right combination of bodies to add to that mix and you can have yourself a contender quickly. For their part the front office is trying to build a sustainable model. The long-term goal means loading the system with potential impact players, putting the right development process in place, and begin cranking out guys who can contribute when the window closes on the current core. In the interim, depending on the expiring contract decision, the Twins have a base and flexibility to potentially reload as a contender for next season. As you follow along with the development of the prospects as well as the team, remember, progress is never a straight line. Click here to view the article

By now you’ve undoubtedly heard that Brian Dozier has been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The former Twins second baseman hustled out to the West Coast and arrived at Dodger Stadium to surprise his new coaching staff in the dugout (one that apparently includes former Twins farmhand Danny Lehmann as Dave Roberts’ game-planning and communications coach, which is sort of what Jeff Pickler does for the Twins). Dozier, the quintessential gamer, informed Roberts that he is ready whenever he is needed -- for better or worse.There is a lot to like about Brian Dozier. An undersized middle infielder (listed at 5”11” and 185 his senior year by his Southern Miss bio) drafted in the eighth round, Dozier could have succumbed to what had been standard practice in the Twins’ organization – converting their middle men into slap-hitting bat controllers. Instead, Dozier set his sights on the outfield wall and beyond. He transformed himself into a legitimate slugger, punctuated by his 42 home run season in 2016. While many voices begged him to go the other way more, Dozier doubled down and continued to yank pitches into the left field corner at a high rate. That’s the shortest distance out, he’d say. You could say he’s stubborn and his career has benefited from that trait. That strength, however, might also be one of his weaknesses, coming at the expense of his performance in 2018. After being informed that he would be traded to Dodgers, Dozier told his new GM that he would be ready to go right away. “I don’t like days off,” Dozier told reporters. “No days off.” With the Twins, Dozier was extremely reluctant to sit on the bench. Between 2013 and 2017, he would average 153 games a year, missing 43 total in 5 years. It’s commendable to want to play and contribute to your team’s effort but it can be a burden if a player is not one hundred percent. Last season in August Dozier hinted that he was not operating at full capacity but declined to elaborate on what that ailment might be. Whatever the issue was, he posted a .308/.402/.606 line with 8 home runs in September, helping lift the team to the first postseason in seven years. Dozier’s talk about not being one hundred percent continued into 2018, when in June he once again told reporters something was not quite right. And, once again, he declined to discuss the details. Unlike a year ago, Dozier’s numbers have been more consistent with someone playing through an injury. According to his StatCast Sprint Speed, the 31-year-old Dozier has posted his lowest speed since the metric’s inception four years ago, dropping from 27.8 ft/sec in 2016 (190th among MLBers) to 26.6 ft/sec (317th). His hard-hit percentage, which was 36% and 35% in 2016 and 2017, has dropped to 27% in 2018. Like almost every hitter, he faced more shifts in 2018 than ever before but while he performed well against the adjusted defenses (.365 wOBA) he struggled when faced with the conventional alignment (.271 wOBA). He also pulled the ball at the same rate, the balls he did pull were not hugging the left field foul pole as closely as they had done in previous season, having more fly balls die out short of the fence. He swung less often in 2018 and swung at fewer pitches in the zone, seemingly losing that attack mentality that had made him such a desired commodity the previous two seasons. It is hard to ignore all that. Heading into the trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox opted for veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler over Dozier. Kinsler, like Dozier, harnessed the use of pull power to drive pitches out of the park. This season, after being nearly a foot-per-second quicker than Kinsler in 2016-2017, Dozier had the same sprint speed as Kinsler (26.6 ft/sec) and very comparable lines: Download attachment: kinsler.PNG It is like Dozier rapidly aged five years. Whatever is not quite right with Dozier it is hard to ignore how that might have hindered his production in 2018. Would more days off have helped? Was playing through injuries and ailments part of Dozier’s heart and hustle mentality? Was it a team-first mindset? Or was it to try to ensure a healthy payday heading into a contract year? Both? Neither? People ask why a player would play through injuries even as it obviously affecting their bottom line. Ego is part of it. There is also an element of believing you are one game away from a breakout, one day away from feeling better. Not playing is the greatest enemy of a baseball player. Regardless of the motivation, Brian Dozier has meant so much for the Minnesota Twins and the Twins community. From a baseball perspective, it was completely necessary to move Dozier at the deadline. From a fan’s perspective, it will be weird as hell to see in him a Dodgers uniform for the duration of the season. With that in mind, here’s a montage of Brian Dozier moments in a Twins uniform for comfort. Click here to view the article

Ready or not Miguel Sano will be back in a Twins uniform in Boston. After being sent to the furthest reaches of the farm system to recondition and rebuild, Sano has returned and brings with him, according to sources, fewer el bees on his midsection. The larger question is while he may be lighter, has he resolved his issues at the plate? Has Sano figured things out or will the second-half of his season be just another sequel that nobody wants to watch?Rochester sources say that after he arrived following time at the team’s facilities in Fort Myers where his diet and exercised were carefully monitored, Sano was reportedly down fifteen pounds from his spring camp weight, which was rumored to be near 293. That is not an insignificant amount of weight to shuck over a month. Compare Sano’s most recent in Rochester (left) with his rehab stint at the beginning of the year (right). Download attachment: IMG_1304.jpg While losing weight was one goal of his demotion, improving his swing was another important aspect. Observers and coaches say he’s moving much better than he did in his first rehab stint with the Red Wings, both in the field and at the plate, however, over his stretch with the Miracle and Rochester, Sano posted a 283/406/434 line with 2 home runs in 64 plate appearances. A fine but not otherworldly run through high-A and AAA pitching. As pointed out prior to his demotion, Sano had a large hole in his swing, namely on the inner-third of the plate. It is difficult to ascertain whether this was addressed. In one highlight from Rochester, Sano loops a ball thrown on the inner-half into right field for an RBI single. What we should take away is that Sano’s hands stay closer to his body, allowing him to go the other way. It’s not a well struck ball by any means and you could argue that a big man like Sano should be pulverizing that ball to the pull side but this is progress considering how he was performing previously. Download attachment: IMG_1308.jpg Sano also posted an 11-to-19 walk-to-strikeout ratio, perhaps indicating a willingness to take more pitches instead of chasing the 2-strike slider over the outside edge. It’s difficult to say whether or not Sano is ready for primetime. He didn’t necessarily tear the cover off the ball and force the team’s hand. The decision to move Eduardo Escobar prompted his return, rest or not. He may not be beloved on the clubhouse as Escobar was but, when healthy, his presence in the lineup every day gives the Twins a legitimate threat to change the game at a moments notice. As manager Paul Molitor once observed “he’s in scoring position standing in the batter’s box.” The Twins could use some of that thump in the heart of the order again. Click here to view the article

With John Bonnes in San Diego, Parker Hageman joins Aaron Gleeman to discuss the final week of a rough first half, Kyle Gibson's slider-based turnaround, Brian Dozier getting back on track, the enigma of Max Kepler, trade deadline candidates, Logan Morrison and Addison Reed going on the disabled list, and how much longer the Twins can stick with Matt Belisle. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. GLEEMAN AND THE GEEK: EPISODE 378 Sponsored by Bye, Goff, and Rohde, SotaStick, and SeatGeek. Click here to view the article

This is a false narrative I've seen pushed by people who claim baseball has lost action because of shifts, home runs, etc. In 2010, there was an average of 18 minutes of "action" (pitches being thrown, balls in play, runners running, etc). In the 1957 World Series, there was 13 total minutes of the same type of action. This notion that there is less action is not entirely accurate. There has been more time stretched between pitches and between innings (commercials) but the time of moving parts on the field has not. I agree with Miles' conclusion that there are probably more families staying home than previously and that has some affect on the attendance. As a family of five, we now go to one game each year as a group. Likewise, with the shift in action happening between the pitcher and the batter, I find watching the game more enjoyable at home where I can see all of that activity. I would assume more people choose to watch at their homes as well (local ratings have been doing just fine).

None. https://www.mlb.com/news/home-run-derby-curse-is-merely-a-myth/c-240929868 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-home-run-derby-myth/

It sounds good but it isn't really a thing. In terms of sequencing, opponents have stacked fastballs with breaking/offspeed pitches outside (not even low) just 25 times this season. He's 0-for-4 with 3 walks on those. If we include the outer-third of the zone, pitchers have hit that spot another 21 times, which he's 3-for-10 on (.300). The first part is absolutely true: He's seeing more fastballs up than ever before and because he has an uppercut swing, it's his kryptonite. Teams have recognized this and adjusted. Just 27% of the fastballs seen this season have been in the lower third where he typically runs his barrel into the ball. The fastballs in the upper-half of the zone, Morrison is batting .132 with a 90% out rate when facing them. (He's hitting .083 on fastball in the upper third alone.) To his credit, he's not chasing them or swinging through them, he's just making extremely poor contact (27% of the balls he does put into play are pop-ups). I wrote about this in April when it became clear that Morrison was approaching things differently this year than last. He was a bit more squat -- telling FSN he was doing so in order to "get into his legs more" -- as well as overstriding. Both moves would make catching up to higher fastballs more difficult on top of the already hindering uppercut. Also toss in the notion that he's playing through some injuries (the back) which would also keep him from swinging at 100%. He had some time off but while Mauer was on the DL, Morrison mostly had to play through it. As far as solutions go, Morrison either has to return to his previous approach (more upright, less stride) or spit on as many fastballs up as possible.

The ending of the Red Wings' second game was amazing. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1011430349887418368

Should have put this on the thread initially... https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1010194512784871425

Absolutely. Escobar is notoriously diligent about his workouts. He was also significantly thicker in 2016 and 2017 but that did not translate to the same numbers he is having this year. It wasn't until he was able to connect his swing that he has been able to handle all pitches. There aren't any leg kicks to jump out. The hip coil difference is probably more noticeable to someone who spends hours each week pouring over videos of swings. At the end of the day, there are plenty of strong players. Plenty of players who added mass over five years. Plenty of those players haven't hit like Escobar is doing this year. He might have had some of the power but it would likely not be as consistent, particularly with the bat path he had previously. The tension he creates bringing everything back then snapping forward well connected in his lower-half, core and arms added to his aggressive intent and that is how we get this type of power production. The only thing better would be is if he were losing more balls.

Eduardo Escobar's day at the park ended shortly after a Rick Porcello fastball bounced off the vulnerable part of the arm just above the elbow and sent shooting pain down to his digits. It is the type of injury that would have made a lesser person's fingers tingle for hours, leaving them incapable of eating steak. Not Ed Escobar, however. Banged up, bandaged up, and listed as day-to-day, the Minnesota Twins' hottest bat made his way several blocks from Target Field to his favorite restaurant to restock on massive quantities of protein. The narrative surrounding Escobar's historic doubles pace has been credited to his penchant for eating at the Brazilian meathouse or a chance run-in with actor Nick Cage. These are both cute stories but the real catalyst behind the power surge has more to do with his development as a hitter than what he has been during outside the lines. Take a look. Click here to view the article

Buster Olney had a good blog recently about how managers have a shrinking role in the outcome of the modern game. He cited one unnamed veteran manager as saying "There’s almost nothing for me to do [during a game]. You change the pitchers, and you wait for somebody to hit a home run. You’re not doing nearly as much stuff as you used to. You don’t even think about doing some of that stuff." When you boil it down, for better or worse, Molitor hasn't done a lot of tinkering. He's called just 8 sac bunts this year, which is on the lower end of the AL (Gardenhire's Tigers have bunted just TWICE this season). They've tried to steal just 32 times, fourth lowest amount in baseball. They also have been picked off 10 times, behind just the Nationals in that amazing category. They've had runners cut down at home an MLB-leading 13 times (they had 17 outs at home all of last year) but they have been fairly aggressive in this area, sending runners from 2nd home on a single or a runner on 1st home on a double at a higher clip than most teams. This is a similar trend that made them successful last year, albeit with different components thanks to injuries. In 2016 and 2015, the Twins were not nearly as aggressive on the bases. They tried to swipe bases but they were not trying to push runners across like they have the last two years. I don't know if this is the manager imparting his will on the strategy to take more chances or not. (In 1992 Molitor was 2nd in the AL in outs at the plate with 6. He definitely tried to make things happen.) As far as bullpen management, outside of the love affair of Ryan Pressly, he's made reasonable decisions. He's called on Pressly 11 times on back-to-back days (which is one of the highest amounts in MLB). Part of it I actually understand too. Pressly's been called upon in late/close situations, often when there have been runners on base (19 inherited runners). At that point, Molitor is looking to miss bats and no one does that more frequently than Pressly. With one more bat-misser in the bullpen for the mid-to-late innings and he'd probably ease up on him. (Also, it's amazing how much Gardenhire is redlining his bullpen in Detroit. Several guys at the top of the list of arms who are asked to go on consecutive days.)

Someone asked on Twitter what sort of drills would work to improve this. One that came to mind was Robinson Cano's screen drill. You place a screen over the middle of the plate and feed pitches on the inner-half. Hitters cannot extend their arms so they have to keep their hands in and rotate.

The data points above are all pitches from both hands. The majority of those pitches are fastballs. In the video example provided, both pitches are 92-94 mph fastballs that ran to the 4-spot on the GameDay zone profile (middle-in). We could obviously analysis this further and breakdown what pitch he had just seen and what he might have been expecting however the characteristic that should stand out is what he is doing with his hands in his swing. This isn't unique to just pitches inside, either. Here's another look at two swings on pitches down/away from 2015 (L) and 2018 ®. Notice how the hands stay closer to the body while the more recent swing he has his hands reaching. Someone pointed out he is further away from the plate this season than in 2015, which may be driving some of the reaching, but I tend to circle back to the notion that he's not entire healthy in the lower-half. If you aren't healthy, you aren't using your whole body and you start doing things like getting more armsy or trying to muscle the ball out instead of leveraging it out.

MIguel Sano has been a hot mess at the plate pretty much all season. Statistically, he has had career highs and lows in all the wrong categories warranting the need to push pause on his 2018 season. The demotion to Fort Myers should give him the opportunity to clean up his swing as well as recuperate from whatever lingering leg injuries have been stifling him. When it comes to his swing, you may be asking yourself what exactly does the big man have to clean up? Let's take a look. Click here to view the article