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B Richard

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Everything posted by B Richard

  1. Clean, simple stroke from Santana
  2. May's changeup looks like a + pitch at the minimum
  3. SSS my friend. Let's give it another IP or 100
  4. That's a fair point-- BB% is just as important to look at as well, however. Arcia has raised his rate by about 2% up from last year. To me, this is a positive sign to weigh against his contact struggles. We'll see how Vargas adjusts going forward, right now in SSS he has a 4.5% BB rate. I'm going to be watching that rate just as closely as his K%. Overall these guys are still early in their careers- there's plenty of room for adjustments going forward. This is a very exciting time to be a Twins fan
  5. K% alone is no reason for concern. I don't care how many times a guy strikes out as long as he A.) gets on base at a decent clip and B.) hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Adam Dunn made a career out of it. Thankfully, Vargas has shown both of those skills in his climb through the minors. Sano as well, to an even greater extent actually. I'm very bullish on both guys- adjustments will be made along the way, but I think we have a few very promising power pieces to compliment a variety of other skills on the roster.
  6. There are some well-reasoned, cogent explanations of WAR's value and shortcomings in this thread. In particular, I believe jay, kab21 and drjim have all provided some insight for those who might be interested in learning more about WAR and advanced statistics. Some important kernels that bear repeating: -No metric is perfect- each statistic carries its own blind spots. Some statistics have more blind spots than others. -All statistics are susceptible to misuse when small sample size or confirmation bias exist. Look at this thread for an example: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/10150-fun-with-numbers-2014/ -Some statistics are better for describing what happened in the past, while others have more predictive value. -------- The present clamoring against WAR's defensive component is not at all unfounded. For those of you who are frustrated with the difficulty of comparing player defense and WAR, consider another statistic I believe is much simpler-- wRC+ wRC+ is a metric used to measure offensive production. wRC+ considers individual events (how much value a single has compared to a double or home run) and weights them accordingly. Finally, wRC+ measures a player's offensive output against LEAGUE average, not replacement level, and presents it as x% better or worse than league average. A player with a wRC+ of 140 is currently producing runs at a rate 40% better than league average. It is a rate stat rather than a counting stat, so be wary of SSS. wRC+ accounts for park factors and is a reliable way to compare players' offense from different eras. wRC+ is absolutely my go-to when I need to figure out how good a player's offense really is. Of course, a SS with a wRC+ of 120 is probably more valuable than a first baseman with a wRC+ of 120. In conjunction with other stats, wRC+ is a great way to measure player value. I think it's a good starting point for anyone interested in sabermetrics. See link for a thorough yet accessible explanation of wRC+: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
  7. I want to start this thread so we can talk about a prospect that I believe is pretty intriguing. Meet Amaurys Minier. Currently playing for the GCL Twins in rookie ball is 18 yr old Amaurys Minier. Minier was a pretty big international FA signing for the Twins two years ago, signing for $1.6M as a 16 yr old Dominican shortstop. Known more for his bat, Minier soon moved out of the middle infield and into the outfield. Last year Minier played in the GCL with mixed results, slashing .214/.252/.455. He struck out in 24.4% of his plate appearances, walking in only 5% of them. Well, this time around in the GCL Minier's calling card is starting to shine. The switch hitting left fielder has slashed .289/.382/.507 this year. Minier is currently producing runs at a rate 53% better than league average. Perhaps even more encouraging is his walk rate, which currently sits at 12.1%-- that's up from a paltry 5% last year ladies and gents. The ability to get on base is often a make-or-break factor for prospects; although Minier's raw hitting numbers are encouraging, the uptick in his plate discipline is monumental. Of course, one can only place so much stock in GCL numbers. Minier is still very much a wild card. Nonetheless, he is making discernible improvements in several areas of his game and merits attention as he moves up the ladder. I know I'm excited for him to get his first taste of full season ball in the not-so-distant future.
  8. I wish they had kept him at 2B. Makes his bat much more valuable than it would be in a corner OF spot. Of course, if he can provide + outfield defense and save some runs, that certainly helps his value there. Any reports on the quality of his OF defense?
  9. Amaurys Minier really looks like he is developing better plate discipline and putting together a fine year
  10. Don't look now, but Minier has doubled his walk rate. (up to 11.3% from 5% last year) Currently he's put up a wRC+ of 145-- that's producing runs at a rate 45% better than league average. 2013 wasn't great for him, but it looks like he is growing as a ballplayer. Very excited to see him advance
  11. Now that the idea has been introduced... why not toss a couple Latin coaches into the mix. Seems like our pitching staff might actually understand them better than whatever language Rick Anderson is speaking. It'd also be hilarious to observe Arcia mumble "ad absurdum" as he walks back to the dugout after striking out.
  12. Hicks definitely needs to see AAA before MLB. The pitching in AAA is much more polished than AA-- they can hit their spots and exploit holes in swings. It's important for Hicks to build his confidence up, and it seems that a AAA stint is the best way to accomplish that
  13. Lets hope Darnell can find his nuts in this one For cooking purposes, of course....
  14. Excited to get in here tonight, first game I've been here for in awhile
  15. In some ways they are worse. At their extreme, they are career ending-- shoulder surgeries are far less successful than what TJ is today. A lesser percentage of shoulder injuries require surgery, however. It seems like rest is a much more effective remedy for shoulder soreness than elbow soreness. Thus, I was inclined to be slightly relieved to hear it was a shoulder rather than an elbow. Great to hear the news this morning, obviously.
  16. Better than the elbow, at least for now. This is a guy that tired down the stretch last year after putting up a hell of a fight for the first half of 2013. In the immediate future there is nothing to do but rest
  17. Several disclaimers and qualifiers came along with the article. The author himself admitted his own lack of expertise. This was rather refreshing, just a blunt opinion. Like all scouting reports, it should be taken with a grain of salt. I have no problem with Gordon's performance, especially considering the fatigue factor and age difference.
  18. I've actually wondered this too
  19. A large portion of sports fandom is speculation. With the product the twins have on the field nowadays... it's probably the only way I derive enjoyment from the organization.
  20. A good contract is a huge plus for his trade value. I love Perk (and suspect there may be a no-trade clause in his contract?) but closers can be fickle, and you never know what a team may offer. If a team bites, there's no reason not to ship him off for an attractive return. What does that return look like? I'm not sure. I would think we might get a BA ~ 30-50 prospect if there situation were right. I may be in the minority, but I don't see Perk as a part of this rebuild's foundation
  21. That should get us some fresh balls for BP. I like the move
  22. Imhof, no. 47 overall pick signed with phillies for exactly slot value. Not a commentary on the twins, just reporting the facts
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