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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    ...and 2016 wraps up with a global average temp .99 degrees above the "long term" average (1950-1981). The warmest year on record. Again. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt Climate change is a hoax.
  2. Willihammer
    No the Dodgers say, 'throw in a lowly PTBNL and we'll *upgrade* you to JDL.'
  3. Willihammer
    The Rays wouldn't make that trade.
  4. Willihammer
    Freaking steal.
  5. Willihammer
    Stephen Drew would make a nice lefty half of a SS platoon.
  6. Willihammer
    The more I think about this, the more I like the idea. Looking at Trumbo's pitch values on fangraphs, his output against the fastball spiked in 2016. He crushed fastballs. In a league that increasingly values velocity, the ability to square up fastballs is a good talent to have. Re: the Camden Yards effect, here are his 2016 homers with Target Field overlaid: http://i.imgur.com/Z6g6Aum.jpg
  7. Willihammer
    Jose Bautista just signed for 1 year 18m. Seems like a great time to be a buyer for RH power. Trumbo gets on base... kinda, and he doesn't field, but, what if he's had a Nelson Cruz-like spike in power, and he just hits 40 homers a year now?
  8. Willihammer
    Yes. That was all too common a sight last year. A difficult or even routine play keeping an inning alive, jacking up pitch counts, etc. It snowballs. Castro should be an improvement. Rosario, for all his recklessness, has the potential to be better. Kepler looks solid. But damn, the left side of the infield has me worried.
  9. Willihammer
  10. Willihammer
    Maybe so, but I think Brock is looking for yield. Cash yield. I did some basic research on REITs a few weeks ago, before my last buy. BXMT and ARI were the winners of what I looked at. Strong revenue, net income, and ROE trends.
  11. Willihammer
    Will he be on an innings limit?
  12. Willihammer
    As discussed a few pages back, the p/e is not that high in relation to interest rates. (Wish I knew that 4 months ago). By one calculation (now a couple months old) the S&P was at the time a bit undervalued.
  13. Willihammer
    Last fall I was convinced the oil market was in a bubble. I was looking at the S&P's high P/E and figured if there was one catalyst at the time to cause a correction, if not an outright bear market, oil would be it. So I shorted it, figuring it would be at worst a hedge and at best a chance to make a little profit. I still think the oil market is screwed up, but now I have several hundred dollars of margin interest and negative capital gains to close (I have been paying it down gradually). I believe the addage "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" to be more true than ever now. Shorting is just one way to hedge, but if you think the market will correct, or turn bearish, you need to be 10x more certain of it than you would to go open a regular long position. Because you're betting against 100 years of rising tide. The "safe" play for me, is long. But we all have different risk tolerances.
  14. Willihammer
    Not a bad rotation but I don't see more upside than that group minus JDL. JMO.
  15. Willihammer
    I assumed Hughes was out. Who else? Gibson?
  16. Willihammer
    Its something to keep an eye on, as always. But right now the market is pricing in 1.95% inflation for the next 10 years, which is almost exactly the Fed's target.
  17. Willihammer
    1. We don't know for a fact a Quintana trade is impossible. Some combo of Kepler, Berrios, Sano, might be enough to get the convo started, or it might not. 2. I think you're underrating the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, and Romero, and overrating the upside of JDL. Seriously, have you seen that guy pitch? I can only assume that everyone who thinks he moves the needle hasn't watched him very closely. Go back and watch his Sept 4 start against the Padres, his best start of the season. You'll see a lot of 89s by the third inning and a lot of BIPs on the lauded changeup. Berrios is a way better prospect. Out of curiosity, if the Twins did add JDL, who would you bump from the rotation?
  18. Willihammer
    1. replace Nolasco with Santiago for a full year 2. Give Mejia a rotation spot 3. Give Berrios a full year 4. If Hughes is back, give him a spot 5. Give May another shot Next year, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, some other riser. Maybe Duffey figures it out. The rotation did suck in 2016 but the situation isn't nearly as static as people make it out to be. There is a huge range of outcomes that are possible on the pitching side regardless of whether they add De Leon to the mix (who is a wildly overrated prospect IMO). Trade prospects for Quintana. They have yet another top 10 pick coming after all. Plus #'s 35 and 37 and a huge draft pool. Sign Bautista or Holland with a mind to flipping at the deadline.
  19. Willihammer
    Like what?
  20. Willihammer
    they can also keep Dozier, then offer him a QO and take the comp pick(s) after he's done.
  21. Willihammer
    Is it bad if I just want a regular chalupa shell? Something about those things...
  22. Willihammer
    They beat the Rockets?
  23. Willihammer
    If Bautista produces but the Twins remain a cellar dweller, then they will remain a revenue sharing beneficiary and get 1 draft pick comp in the 31-74 overall range for Bautista's next QO. If Bautista produces and the Twins somehow produce a winning product, then maybe they become a revenue sharing-payor and would receive a pick after the fourth round when Bautista declines his QO. If Bautista produces and the Twins wind up neither a beneficiary or a payor, then they get a pick after the Comp Balance round B. Have I got that right? And obviously if Bautista lays an egg, then there would be no draft pick compensation. But if he stinks, then the Twins probably remain lousy, a revenue sharing beneficiary, and get more picks in the comp balance rounds for their futility.
  24. Willihammer
    He's still a very patient hitter. Hi BB, low -k guy. The big red flag from last year is he got beat on a lot of fastballs, which he usually crushes. Not a great sign for someone his age, otoh Torii Hunter experienced the same thing, at the same age, but was able to recover in his late 30s for a few seasons. Perhaps he is a small adjustment away from getting back to his old self against fastballs.
  25. Willihammer
    I'm starting to wonder if Friedman is leveraging a delta between JDL's perceived value and his actual value. I would be more excited if Stewart were the starting point, where the opposite is the case IMO. Perhaps they could get a better 2nd piece that way.
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