Willihammer

I find it unlikely that Suzuki agreed to a contract with a PA-based incentive in order to be a backup, or split much time at all, with Pinto (or anyone else)

Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21). Download attachment: Sano_Miguel_Landscape.jpg Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22). Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In BOTH leagues. (ISO, or Isolated Power, is Slugging Percentage minus batting average. So it measures pure power - how good a player is at accumulating "extra" bases in the form of doubles, triples and home runs.) Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO: http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1 Five players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20-year-old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league). As stated above, the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR. http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1 Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. And look at the ages at the top of that list. One of these things is not like the other. So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton. Click here to view the article

If you expect Suzuki to regress to career norms with the bat and continue being a lousy framer than there is no upside to extending him. I would rather see the Twins make a strong push for Martin, and failing that, fall back to guys like Soto and Ross and failing that, Suzuki (and failing that - Pinto, waiver claim, etc). The catching situation is bad but becomes more hopeless if they lock themselves into a commitment with Suzuki before they have to, IMO.

Trading Nolasco now would be a blunder I think. Today's Lackey trade is evidence that FA disasters can turn it around and become quite valuable.

Evidently the Royals are looking for pitching but have set their sights a little higher than Correia. I wonder if TR were inclined to flip Milone, what the Royals would give?

They got Moss, Reddick and Crisp for outfielders now. They could probably swap in a RH bat for Reddick when facing lefties. They ought to see little or no decline in OF production from this trade, IMO. All 3 are under control through 2016 too

D'oh, there it is, thanks.

What about attaching pics? I don't have the option, I can only link to image URL

Was the daily cap on likes by design? People ran out of them in a game thread

In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers. PITCHERS 1. Amateur Draft Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad Radke owns a full third (45.5 WAR) of that total. Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/MG4siqR.png 2. Amateur Free Agency The Twins have given 24 player-seasons to Amateur FA pitchers since 1995. Juan Rincon and Jose Mijares share the top 7 highest WAR seasons. Others in this category include Liam Hendriks, Grant Balfour, Michael Nakamura, Rob Delaney, and Cole DeVries. Together they average a 0.29 WAR season. http://i.imgur.com/73gC0Tm.png 3. Rule 5 Draft The five Rule 5 Twins player-seasons since 1995 are owned by Scott Diamond (3), Ryan Pressly (1) and Travis Baptist (1). Together they have pitched 432.1 innings for a WAR of 1.9. http://i.imgur.com/9ni3gmd.png 4. Trades Trades account for 90 (pitcher) player-seasons since 1995. Of all other AL teams to have existed for the period 1995-2013, only the Angels have been less-reliant on trades to fill their pitching staffs. But, the Twins own the best WAR-average at 1.36, boosted by the acquisitions of Johan Santana (35.4 WAR over 8 seasons), Eric Milton (14.7/6), Joe Nathan (18.3/7), Joe Mays (10.6/6) and Francisco Liriano (9.9/6). http://i.imgur.com/uVp33wI.png 5. Waivers Jeremy Guthrie owns the distinction of most productive pitcher acquired by Waivers since 1995. He was worth 16.5 WARs for the Orioles from 2007-2011. The next closest is Darren O'Day at under 10 WAR. For the Twins, 13 waiver-wire pitchers have been worth 7.6 WAR over 25 player-seasons. Matt Guerrier (7.5 WAR) has been the most productive pickup, with the other 12 players producing just 0.1 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/2CN4lbQ.png 6. Free Agency Bob Tewksbury remains the best free agent pickup for the Twins. He produced 6.5 WAR at a price of 3.75 million over the 1997-1998 seasons. Overall, Twins FA pitchers average .47 WAR per season, good for 8th in the AL http://i.imgur.com/VmwNq1Y.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins most successful means of acquiring pitching talent since 1995 are: 1. Trades (1.36) 2. The Amateur Draft (.88) 3. Free Agency (.47) 4. The Rule 5 Draft (.38) 5. Waivers (.30) 6. Amateur Free Agency (.29) Click here to view the article

Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency: Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1996-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here) POSITION PLAYERS The Amateur DraftSince 1996, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL. http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png 2. Amateur Free Agency This includes signing international prospects. Sixteen player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own one apiece. http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png 3. Rule 5 Draft Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons. http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png 4. Trades The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1996. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.) http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png 5. Waivers The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1996. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png 6. Free Agency Since 1996, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team. http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith): 1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR) 2. Trades (0.54) 3. Waivers (0.42) 4. Free Agency (0.37) 5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26) 6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06) *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys. Click here to view the article

http://i.imgur.com/1aOtRaH.jpg Personal Information: Name: Brandon Poulson Birth date: ? (24 years old) Position: RP Height: 6' 6" Weight: 240 Bats: R Throws: R High School: Piner High School College: Academy of Art University History/Stats: Poulson is a 24 year old who went undrafted in June due to keeping a low profile. Until last fall he spent most of his time working for his father's excavation business, and only pitched on Sunday nights in a local men's league called the Wine Country league. Beginning last fall, Poulson and pitching coach Caleb Balbuena re-tooled Poulson's mechanics and he is now reported to throw as hard as 100 mph. Poulson joined the the Prune Packers of the Golden State Collegiate Baseball League this summer, and proceeded to strike out 31 of the 58 batters he faced, while walking 15, allowing 6 singles and 2 ER in 12.1 innings. He had a 58.6% first pitch strike percentage. While closing for the Packers, Poulson was spotted by Twins scout Elliott Strankman, who believes Poulson has the best arm strength he has ever seen. "He's a physical specimen," Strankman said. "We're cautiously optimistic because we don't want to put a bunch of pressure on the kid. He could be pretty good. This is uncharted territory for us." The A's, Giants, Mariners, and Phillies also expressed interest in Poulson but the Twins were able to offer a $250,000 bonus because of the large balance remaining on their draft pool. "It's a great story," Twins West Coast scouting supervisor Sean Johnson said Tuesday. "This kid came out of nowhere." Scouting Report: Not a lot we know about Poulson yet except he throws hard and is considered extremely athletic. He was clocked running a 6.6 60 yard dash and has a 40 inch vertical leap, in addition to the 96-100 mph fastball. Poulson will travel to Tennessee where he will finalize his agreement and join the E-Town Twins. He could make his first appearance as early as this weekend.

I like Gibson, but there is a small part of me that wonders if he is the next Blackie. He so stingy with the strikeouts.

Per MLBTR: Looks like the Strohs could use a corner OFer (Arcia), possibly a 3B (Plouffe, Sano?), or catcher (PInto) Should the Twins be calling?

The Twins undoubtedly know this too. I believe them when they say they want to extend him. I suspect the Twins are rejecting trade offers (unless someone blows them away) in order to keep Suzuki in the Twins Cities and count on his production tailing off in the last too months, thus bringing his asking price down closer to whatever they're offering and giving them an inside track on re-signing him in the offseason.

And if I'm Billy Bean my counter is Nick Punto

Maybe they got some from the guys in teh other booth http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?id=1608900 (Hudler is now with FSKC)

Testing one two, testing... http://i.imgur.com/arW6XpG.gif edit: Link to the image URL I guess? (rather than uploading from computer)

From Berardino: http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_26223739/twins-reliever-glen-perkins-makes-pitch-kurt-suzuki Lot of Perkins love too.

IMO that uncertainty, or gamble, is the perfect opening for a mid-market team to strike it big. I'm not saying Castillo is the guy to make a move on (I am more intrigued by Tomas personally) but they need to get a slice of this action before the rules change. Heck even the A's got a Cuban

Darren WolfsonVerified account ‏@DarrenWolfson No shock: the #MNTwins are NOT one of the teams trying to line up a private workout w/ Cuban FA OF Rusney Castillo. They like. $$ too high. 5:19 PM - 28 Jul 2014

Molitor kinda is an outside voice. He left before the 2002 season when Gardy was made manager. Does anyone believe the Twins would be shifting as much as they do if he hadn't re-joined the club this year?

Santana has a 5/1 K/BB ratio and .394 BABIP. He is going to regress into something approaching Florimon territory I suspect. Yet another 25th man/utility on a team overflowing with them, IMO.

No upload link, either from my willihammer>my profile>my gallery view, or when replying to a post -the only option is to link to URL.

Anyone watching the ESPN game, Dodgers v Giants? The booth interviewed Kershaw (sub 1.00 ERA his last 10 starts). Turns out Kershaw is also working on his changeup. Has been for some time. (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-pitch-that-clayton-kershaw-hasn-t-yet-mastered-232853071.html). (From memory), some of his quotes on the pitch: "I wish Ryu would return the favor [of Kershaw sharing his slider grip with Ryu] and teach me how to throw a changeup" "I'll never shake to a changeup" "I know I'll have to rely more on a changeup someday" OK, Kershaw has very good fastball command, and he does throw a slow curve as a third pitch. But, here we have a 26 year old player coming up on his 200th start - and he's not a finished product either. edit: didn't mean to derail the thread - back to Darnell. I actually thought Darnell pitched better than his final line indicated on Saturday. It would be nice to have a larger sample to draw from but in that one start he looked like a possible 5th starter candidate for 2015, maybe a long man. Just my first impression. Will definitely be watching his next starts.