Willihammer

I'm not convinced Deduno should be singled out (his pitches are repeatable and his command of them isn't that terrible - Pinto is also no better catching Mike Pelfrey who throws nothing but straight fastballs), but for the sake of argument let's assume Deduno is the problem. Of the 1175 non-Deduno chances Pinto is -37.1 strikes. A rate of -3.2% strikes vs. the -5.4% catching Deduno. On a per game basis he is -4.12 strikes/game catching Deduno and -2.45 strikes/game catching everyone else. So, he would still need to make up for .32 runs/game with the bat. He would need to carry an .377 wOBA just to break even.

Statcorner says Pinto costs the Twins -2.87 strikes per game. They use Mike Fast's weights of about .13 runs/strike. Therefore, Pinto's bat would need to make up for over a third of a run per game. For reference, the median catcher with >100 PAs at this point is Wilin Rosario, whose wOBA is .306. In 241 PAs, Pinto's wOBA is .357 (about 1/3 are as DH) He's also got a 19% HR/FB ratio (to go with a roughly average BABIP). It all depends on where you think he'll settle as a batter I guess. Or how much you think he'll improve with the glove, but a .357 catcher is good for .204 additional runs compared to a .306 catcher, for every 4 PAs. Netting out somewhere around -.17 runs/game

Something I've noticed Pinto does with runners on base - wait till the last possible second to setup for a pitch for fear of tipping to the baserunner where the location of the pitch will be. This delays the umpire crouching and I suspect contributes to Pinto losing strikes. I hope you're right that he figures it out. Nice write-up

Is Fryer the better catcher? Some of the (SSS) stats suggest he's no good either. Lousy bat <> good defense.

@ tarheel, all I did was input the Twins prospects' PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR values into the tool on the beyondtheboxscore site (linked above), to produce zK, zBB, and zISO values which I then plugged into St John's other tool (sounds dirtier than it was). The tool based on the 41,000 minor league player seasons. That produced the probabilities described above.

I actually think there's an outside shot Mauer is dealt this offseason. To the Dodgers. Here's why: Mauer is a 1B. Mauer has a down season. Mauer has no post-concussion symptoms at all. Mauer misses catching. Joe talks to the Twins brass. They still don't want Mauer to catch. Too much money, too risky. Dodgers miss the playoffs. Dodgers crucify, among others, AJ Ellis. Dodgers call Twins, they want a catcher. They have money. "Just ask Joe, will ya?" They say. Twins tell Mauer "you can catch... in LA." Mauer is Lebron. He must chose - will he stay or will he go? Too farfetched?

I had to update the tables because I had Polanco's 2013 level wrong (A+ instead of A). He still comes out looking ok.

I needed to update the table because I had Polanco's 2013 level wrong (A+ instead of A). He still comes out good though.

Over at Beyond The Boxscore, Chris St John revealed a system for predicting major league success of minor leaguers based on prospect age and level. The system is called JAVIER (named after Cubs SS prospect Javier Baez), and you can read about it here. The system predicts whether a prospect will bust, have an average career, or be a productive player (defined as having at least 1000 MLB PAs and producing at least 0.0275 VORP per PA - read about VORP here), based on a dataset of 41,238 player-seasons between the years 1978 and 2013. In part 2 of St John's reveal, he gives us is a tool where you can input a prospect's age, level, zBB, zK, and zISO values to see how they compare, historically, against all prospects with similar plate discipline and power at a given age/level. So I inputed the values of the top Twins position prospects in the 2013 minor league season (prospects taken from Seth Stoh's top 50 list ). Where prospects split time between two leagues, I used the values from the league where he logged the most PAs. I inputed the player's age as listed on baseball-reference's Minor's page as the minimum of the age range, and their age + 1 as the maximum. I inputed zBB, zK, and zISO values that were +/- one standard deviation. The results are below. [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 396] Player Productive Average Bust Total Avg MLB PA Avg MLB VORP Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]17 [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]1137[/TD] [TD=align: right]44[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]39[/TD] [TD=align: right]46[/TD] [TD=align: right]624[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]148[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]571[/TD] [TD=align: right]52[/TD] Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]44[/TD] [TD=align: right]65[/TD] [TD=align: right]1428[/TD] [TD=align: right]80[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]210[/TD] [TD=align: right]221[/TD] [TD=align: right]166[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [TD=align: right]447[/TD] [TD=align: right]535[/TD] [TD=align: right]558[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]328[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]636[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: right]85[/TD] [TD=align: right]278[/TD] [TD=align: right]404[/TD] [TD=align: right]1222[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]178[/TD] [TD=align: right]433[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]152[/TD] [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]1620[/TD] [TD=align: right]77[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]203[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]442[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]248[/TD] [TD=align: right]280[/TD] [TD=align: right]414[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]268[/TD] [TD=align: right]299[/TD] [TD=align: right]297[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]118[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]1065[/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] Miguel Sano*[TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]4213[/TD] [TD=align: right]243[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]230[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]67[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]207[/TD] [TD=align: right]227[/TD] [TD=align: right]309[/TD] [TD=align: right]22[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]306[/TD] [TD=align: right]318[/TD] [TD=align: right]154[/TD] [TD=align: right]33[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]69[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]876[/TD] [TD=align: right]54[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]175[/TD] [TD=align: right]198[/TD] [TD=align: right]459[/TD] [TD=align: right]49[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [/TABLE] Sano stands out right away - he kinda breaks the projection. Only two batters in St John's dataset fall within a standard deviation of Sano's plate discpipline and power profile as a 20 year old in AA. They are Jose Canseco and Randy Johnson (not that Randy Johnson). So his JAVIER projection is pretty useless due to SSS. We can re-rank the Twins top position prospects in a number of ways. Here they are in order of Productive%: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 340] Player Productive Total Productive % [TD=align: right]1 Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]43 [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]65[/TD] [TD=align: right]15.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]13.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]13.13%[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.64%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: right]404[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.15%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]46[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.70%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]198[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]178[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.18%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]280[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.71%[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]535[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.49%[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]227[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.41%[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]299[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.35%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]221[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.71%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]318[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.26%[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.86%[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [/TABLE] Ranked in order of highest average VORP at the MLB level, the top 19 are: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 293] Player Avg MLB PA Avg MLB VORP [TD=align: right]1 Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]1428 [TD=align: right]80[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]1620[/TD] [TD=align: right]77[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]1065[/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]875.7[/TD] [TD=align: right]53.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]570.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]51.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]458.8[/TD] [TD=align: right]49.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]1137[/TD] [TD=align: right]44[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]433.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]38.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]1222[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]153.8[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]624.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]414.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]297.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]308.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]22[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]442.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]558.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]635.6[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]166[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]66.55[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.92[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [/TABLE] Ranked in order of lease likely to bust, the top 19 are: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 345] Player Bust Total Bust% [TD=align: right]1 Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]152 [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]60.32%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]67.12%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]44[/TD] [TD=align: right]65[/TD] [TD=align: right]67.69%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]278[/TD] [TD=align: right]404[/TD] [TD=align: right]68.81%[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]118[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]73.75%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]69[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]79.31%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]328[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]81.59%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]447[/TD] [TD=align: right]535[/TD] [TD=align: right]83.55%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]148[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]84.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]39[/TD] [TD=align: right]46[/TD] [TD=align: right]84.78%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]203[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]87.12%[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]175[/TD] [TD=align: right]198[/TD] [TD=align: right]88.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]248[/TD] [TD=align: right]280[/TD] [TD=align: right]88.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]268[/TD] [TD=align: right]299[/TD] [TD=align: right]89.63%[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]178[/TD] [TD=align: right]89.89%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]207[/TD] [TD=align: right]227[/TD] [TD=align: right]91.19%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]210[/TD] [TD=align: right]221[/TD] [TD=align: right]95.02%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]306[/TD] [TD=align: right]318[/TD] [TD=align: right]96.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]230[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]98.71%[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] You get the idea. In part 3 you can compare players by minor league careers (rather than single seasons). A blog for another day maybe.

Who would you rather catch? http://i.imgur.com/u3qH82M.png?1

Why wouldn't the stats show the result of his prep? Along with his pitch framing, blocking, etc. See Jorgensweet's blog. Suzuki gets fewer K's and more BB's than his teammates.

Hammer or Morales

Congratulations to Zuke on "framing" the strikiest called ball of the 1st half http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/1guerrierpence.gif

Be interesting to see what kind of PA Zuke puts together. My guess is they will pitch him inside.

Way to take one for the team, Trevor

Bat around!

Tulowitzki

Correia is capable of throwing strikes, but I don't believe he's capable of dictating the results when those pitches are inevitably put in play. Take today for example. Correia had one strikeout to 8 flyouts. I can think of at least three that had to have been driven 380+ feet. But no home runs. Meanwhile a fifth of his groundouts were turned for a double play. His xFIP for the day? 6.42. So, Correia had a quality start today because Correia got lucky today. He wasn't any more skilful than his April and May starts when he got lit up. That is the crux of my revulsion with the PTC love affair that the Correia signing embodies - every start is a gamble. The Twins were just hoping to get lucky.

I wouldn't trade him for Bundy. Aside from further delaying The Next Winning Twins Team, I don't think its fair value, and ... its not 2012 anymore. The Twins have restocked the cupboard with front of the rotation pitching talents (granted some of them are still in the low minors). I wouldn't trade a cornerstone guy for one more at this point.

If the Twins are entertaining the idea of trading Dozier for more prospects then I'm done. He's a good player and at 27 should be plenty young enough to be part of The Next Winning Twins Team. To trade him for prospects (and I doubt the Twins will, but if they did), that says to me they are not even trying for a 5-6 year rebuild, which is long enough, but a 10 year rebuild which just makes you a losing franchise.

Kendrys! (sic)

Its frustrating because he did nothing but hit as a minor leaguer (career .314 BA over 1800 PAs). So far in 2014 he has been doing more swinging and missing than just about anyone in baseball. Similar deal with Hicks too really (career .270 BA). Actually the penalty to their BAs after being promoted is almost identical - .076 points for Hicks and .075 for Arcia.

I would too. He's younger than Plouffe, Florimon, and Dozier. More importantly, he can hit a little bit. I'd put him at SS, at least til this supposed lousy defender shows himself.

Arcia has been the biggest disappointment of the year to this point, IMO. Really hoped for more, both on offense and defense. edit: he does have a good arm though

If by "comfortable" you mean "crawling on all fours across a bed of broken glass, Die Hard style" then I concur 100%