Willihammer
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Everything posted by Willihammer
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The Oregon Pay-It-Forward idea is predicated on a flat income tax of 3-4% income tax for 5 years, times the number of years attended university. So graduating in 4 years from a university would require a ~3.5% income tax over 20 years. According to the Oregon State U estimates, this plan would lose money for the first 20 years. I believe that is even after the assumption that your $10m / year grads would stay and pay back ~$7m over 20 years (7m is 3.5% of $200m). If you are going to put an arbitrary cap on it to keep people in state, where would you make up the funding?
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I'm pretty casual as Star Wars fans go but IMHO it did a good job balancing the old while progressing into new territory. Couple things that maybe could have been done differently - everyone's aged except Chewy. Surprising us with a snow white Bumble the Abominable Chewy would have been good for a laugh. I also found the CGI distracting. The 1000 y/o barkeep, the sketchy dude in the flea market, Snope, etc. all reminded me of the crappy 90s trilogy. Whereas the muppets seemed more natural somehow. Another thing if people aren't aware is that Abrams will not be doing the next two episodes. Those will be done by Rian Johnson (Breaking Bad (3 episodes), Looper, Brothers Bloom), and Colin Trevorrow (Jurassic World, Safety Not Guaranteed).
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If the costs outweigh the benefits, yeah, I think so.
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How would you finance higher ed?
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A lot to criticise about that idea. It would drive students who don't want to pay the income tax of state where Oregon can't collect. Federally implemented it would drive graduates out of the country. It has been described as "social security but in reverse." That should be a massive red flag since we can't even guarantee SS benefits to people who have paid in for 50+ years. Another thing is that a lot of times tuition is just half the cost of a public education. Housing and living expenses would need to be taken out as loans and repaid just the same. It is very simple IMO. We need close the gap between the degrees universities are producing and the degrees employers are willing to pay for. I would look at ways to get the private sector more involved in pre-hiring undergraduates and financing their education as a way to train them for actual jobs that will be there for them when they graduate. People wouldn't like this since it smells like indentured servitude but the reality is that all the English degrees we graduate today are burdened with just as much debt and none of the job security. The government's role would be to regulate and oversee the process.
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I think its clear that TR uses trades primarily to rebalance the system. Even his deadline deals are geared towards addressing organizational weakness as much as making a playoff push. Stewart is a good example of a guy who was a FA that the Twins brough back the following offseason on a 3 year deal. But this approach puts a cap on the type of player the Twins will make a deadline trade for. That cap is: what they'd be willing to pay for that player on the open market the following offseason. TR would never have traded for Johnny Cueto, for example. IMO this isn't all bad because we know most blockbuster deadline deals wind up just making the buying team's system weaker by 1-2 top talents. We also know that a lot of deadline needs can be predicted months in advance - like the Twins bullpen last spring. Everyone knew that bullpen was weak. So instead of waiting until the deadline to target players of medium-low quality, maybe they can address those needs before hand and target higher quality players who, because they aren't rentals, will not decimate the system as badly because higher quality players are more likely to garner QOs the following offseason. That might also help smooth out the boom and bust cycle the Twins seem so prone to under Ryan.
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Even taking out Santana the average SP seasons have been about equal.
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Follow up on my last post. I tallied pitcher seasons during the TR era (min 10 GS). Very quick and dirty look at averages of those season totals below. LHSPs have done better overall.
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It was especially easy to forecast Thompson, Graham and Boyer regressing. Boyer managed to keep his lucky streak through the end of the year but the other two finished with 5.00 ERAs. It's a good thing nobody has necro'd some of those May/June bullpen debates, I recall a few fans suggesting it would be absurd to replace relievers who were so effective despite not striking anyone out.
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The Hardball Times has been tracking the zone changes in the past few years. Basically, umpires prior to the pitchf/x era were terrible. Since pitch tracking and umpire reviews have evolved, umpires are calling what is closer to the rulebook zone, which has caused the zone to expand, esp. downward. http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-expansion-is-out-of-control/
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Party switches happen all the time, it is allowed. Reagan, Strom Thurmond, Jesse Helms, Trent Lott, Norm Coleman all were democrats before they were Republicans. And Clinton used to be a Republican (campaigned for Nixon). Not to mention she voted for the Patriot Act, Iraq invasion, etc. she is hardly the most liberal Democrat to be associated with. Trump is less conservative than Cruz but the sad truth is that flip flopping on abortion and gay marriage made him a de facto Republican. Today those two issues as much as anything are what define "conservatism," not spending cuts, free trade, personal liberty, tax cuts, etc.
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From my couch, it looks like Mauer has been in denial about the changing strikezone. He seems more often to be complaining about strike calls at the knees and borderline strikes where he used to get the benefit of the doubt. IMO needs to do a better job with learning and commanding the modern strike zone in order to return to being the high OBP / average guy that is clearly his strength as a hitter.
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Five Hitters Deserving Of Your Attention
Willihammer replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I guess I had forgotten how vicious Bonds' swing was. That follow through! -
I think there is someothing to that. Just going from memory its hard to think of a team that hasn't had a lefty jammed into it. Albers, Pedro Hernandez, Duensing, Perkins, Diamond, 41 y/o Terry Mulholland, etc. Obviously a couple of (big) hits too. And I know I have read Ryan say something to the effect of "being a lefthander gives ____ an advantage to make the rotation in my book." If I get time I'll maybe look up the stats or LH vs RH starters over the years and blog the results.
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Regression Candidates in 2016
Willihammer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That is incredible. But the Gameday graph tells the other side of the story, with an 0-1 swing at a sinker below the knees. The 46% OOZ swing rate is ridiculous. So much room to improve there. He could be a really good player if he does.- 41 replies
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- miguel sano
- eddie rosario
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All I know is if May is going to relieve then TR has to surround him with more talent or Molly is going to burn him out. May should never be pitching back-to-back-to-back days, and not back-to-back either if it can be helped.
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Evidently in Trump's book, Art of the Deal, he discusses the negotiating tactic known as "anchoring." This is, I suspect, behind 90% of the false and outrageous things he says. It is part of the reason he inspires so much confidence as a leader, and its also why his supporters get such a kick out of the "outrage" crowd overreacting to everything he says. So, is trolling but also a negotiating tactic which has doubled as a political one.
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Its an opt out not a buyout but year, looks good for the Giants IMO. Strong chance it goes as well for them as the Greinke deal did for LA.
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Its asymptotically unlikely that pitching hasn't gotten better. The growth in the talent pool has way outpaced MLB expansion. To break onto a 25 man roster today requires such a freakish level of talent, higher and higher along the bell curve, more and more standard deviations from the mean than ever. Consider, in 1930, 100% of MLB talent was farmed domestically (or very close to 100%). The pop. was 123 mil. Cut out blacks ( 12 mil) Jews (4.5) and the remaining white women (54m) and you're down to a 53 million-size population. I don't know how many of those played baseball, probably well under half, but assume its 100% of white Christian males for sake of argument. There were 16 MLB teams in 1930. Today the US is still the primary base of talent, and its added 100m males to the population. Add males from the Dominican (5), Venezuela (15), Cuba (5.5), Japan (63), and many other places. This is just back of the napkin math but the trend is clear: the population of talent has grown exponentially since 1930 while MLB has not even doubled in size. Therefore unless you can state a case against the population then or now being normally distributed, then MLB competition has gotten better also. In fact, there is a decent chance that the best player next year, the MVPs, will be the best of all time. And new ones the following year, etc.
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Agree, he just needs to be lucky injury wise. Luckily for fans he seems to be focused and stays in shape and out of trouble. In today's game you cannot drink and smoke your way to a 1.000 OPS as you could in Ruth's. Not to mention the 100 mph Cubans and euphus throwing Japanese he has to face. But he is as talented as any player I've seen, for sure.
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No offense but that sounds unlikely. Lower body fat > more injuries? Source?
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Thanks, that is great info. What do you recommend for dyskinesis? Back and lat strengthening perhaps? Can you elaborate on Stewart's mechanical changes?
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Shoulder soreness in 2013, again in 2014, elbow in 2015, declining K-rate, changing mechanics... is he hurt or in the process or pitching himself into an injury?
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Lol judge much? Sorry you feel that way about me Chitown. Have an upvote anyway.
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Ha, because I referred to her as Hillary? I think its about a coin flip personally. I would vote Trump if there was some assurance he would not actually follow through on his nuttier ideas like deporting of millions of Mexicans. But he is too risky to get my vote although I cannot bring myself to vote for Clinton either.
