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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Prince of Pennsylvania is pretty good. Tells the story of American olympic wrestling teams of the 90s and their main sponsor, John DuPont, who was completely nuts.
  2. Willihammer
    Why would any company, whose competitors have fired their native employees in favor of cheaper illegal labor, hire natives at $15/hr? There is an upward pressure on illegal immigration in that sense, no?
  3. Willihammer
    3/75 is only half of MLBTR's pre-offseason predictions, which are usually pretty close. Is it just me or are a lot of Boras clients signing underwhelming contracts under the current CBA?
  4. Willihammer
    I do too. Especially the first one, bringing in a batting title leader to face his closest rival. That would be fun to see.
  5. Willihammer
    I have a hard time envisioning a scenario that doesn't exacerbate both trends. Some jobs can't be outsourced.
  6. Willihammer
    Less immigration? How so
  7. Willihammer
    Let's say Bernie is elected and jacks up the minimum wage to $15/hr nationally. How might that impact outsourcing? Illegal immigration?
  8. Willihammer
    That's a well written article and maybe it explains why Trump is popular in the Rust Belt, but how would the author explain Trump's popularity everywhere else? Most people, Minnesotans I know who are Trump supporters are employed, come from stable families, etc. in other words, are winners of globalization (as are most people). When you eliminate globalization and immigration as a reason, the easiest explanation is there's just a basic racism and xenophobia at the heart of it for those people, dressed in patriotic flair.
  9. Willihammer
    IMO the Tigers are among the top 3 worst run franchises in baseball. They can't construct a bullpen to save their souls. K-rod? He's 34, can't crack 90 mph barely. He is gonna get smoked in any playoff situation just like Nathan and Valverde and Dotel and Coke and all the other "proven" geezers before him. Relief pitching is a young man's game and the Tigers are going the wrong way, fast. There might be a year or two where Verlander, Upton, Zimmerman and Cabrera and JD Martinez can keep them around 2nd place but that is a best case scenario IMO. Too many injury and decline possibilities on the roster with no youth ready to step up. They have really screwed themselves there. I'd put the over under at 74 wins again. Same as last year.
  10. Willihammer
    If you missed it (this program started at the beginning of the year I think), might be work checking out: http://www.selfrefi.state.mn.us/ 4.5% refi rates.
  11. Willihammer
    I read A Random Walk Down Wall St. about a year ago and that has guided my retirement investing since. All passive, mostly foreign, no individual stocks. My returns are down as bad or worse than anyone's but its a good read nonetheless if anyone out without a finance degree is thinking about socking away some money for a while.
  12. Willihammer
    You could say that about every batter really. "Game of failure," etc. Not just replying to you but some in this thread are overstating the difference between a pitcher and DH. 2015 DH OBP: .334 2015 Pitchers OBP: .158 The difference is about one hit/walk per game. Is that really damaging your experience? I think the greater expectation of failure just makes the successes that much sweeter. And then of course there are the double switches, sac bunting, etc that add their own dynamics to the game. Also, re: intentionally walking the #8 hitter, that is overblown too: NL IBBs in 2015: 552 AL IBBs in 2015: 399
  13. Willihammer
    Kinda seems like Perk blames Molitor for his ineffectiveness in the 2nd half. Not, oh I dunno, the declining velo or his bum neck or back. I wonder what May or Jepsen's comments would be on Molitor's decision to open up the 9th inning to other players. Disappointed that Molitor has bent over. I really hoped he would be the guy to break the mold but alas, he seems to be taking the Gardy path of least resistance and veteran coddling.
  14. Willihammer
    No, you get to watch him bunt. Which is fun, because small ball is fun and it makes sense in that spot. Unlike the AL where it almost never does. Keep small ball in the game, keep pitchers in the lineup I say.
  15. Willihammer
    Davis' deal has a lot of deferred money. Fangraphs wrote a piece on it. Kinda wonder if the O's initial offer of 7/151, the one Boras scoffed at, also included deferred money.
  16. Willihammer
    Those are good points. It seems weird to think of catchers as sort of the positional equivalent of relief pitchers, because we tend to think there is so much more to the job, but it makes some sense. The best bats are often moved out of the position.
  17. Willihammer
    Mauer is considered a catcher because that's the position he's played the most games at. Its the position he was drafted for and developed to play and its the position he'd still be playing if not for the concussions. I don't know what to tell you about Ernie Banks. Its clear you aren't familiar with WAR. There is a positional adjustment. For fWAR there is a +12.5 run adjustment for catchers over 162 games, and -12.5 run adjustment for first basemen. So your concern about WAR overvaluing a part-time catcher is not really warranted. WAR will be benefit/penalize Mauer accordingly in seasons (games?) where he caught or played first. So even after these decline phase years at first base, Mauer still ranks among the best players whose primary position was catcher, on a WAR/162 basis. Admittedly this was written in Jul 2014 so he probably isn't ranked at #1 anymore. But then you get into a separate question of, why should short-but-great players like Koufax and Puckett make the hall but someone who plays longer at a declining level, not make it? The most interesting question to me, even besides Mauer's HoF case, is why isn't there a single catcher among the 45 greatest players by WAR/162?
  18. Willihammer
    If you're referring to the BillJamesonline.com article, the author used WAR/162 for that reason. Catchers still come up short.
  19. Willihammer
    What if in a parallel universe there two opposite handed, athletic ace pitchers on the same team playing game 7 of a World Series. A team with Bumgarner and Greinke, for example. And they just switch off batter by batter to face same-handed baters the entire game, with the non-pitching guy covering the weak side of an overshift. Each pitcher making 10 appearances during the game... and then winning the game after 8 2/3 innings because the home team is forced to forfeit after its fans... storm the field and riot?
  20. Willihammer
    Pitchers with two appearances in one game. (PDF)
  21. Willihammer
    1. Obviously no Twins fan has a personal hatred for Mauer or anyone else on the team (possible exception of Halsey and Plouffe). 2. Nobody said WAR should be the only stat. But, WAR is commonly used as a starting point for evaluating the HoF credentials of a player and it is the object of the article. WAR is the most elegant stat out there for capturing career output. But, curiously, it doesn't value a single catcher in the history of the game amongst the top ~ 45 elite players of all time. 3. As somewhat of a sidenote, on a WAR/162 basis, Mauer is the greatest catcher of all time. 4. Given #2, how should Mauer's (or any other catcher's) HoF case be considered? One option might be to abandon WAR completely in favor of another stat or more likely, combination of stats. Another option would be to re-adjust the positional component of WAR so that the elite catchers of history are valued similarly to the elite players at other positions.
  22. Willihammer
    Would anyone be surprised if Perkins hit the 60 day DL again in 2016 or 2017? He had a neck thing and an arm thing in 2015 IIRC. He is getting old, the velo isn't there as much. Shlubby. I'd definitely plan on him tailing off over the next 3 years. Re: Bastardo - Full picture - he had 8 WPs last year in 57 IP. 20 in the 216 IP before that. That's a lot. By comparison, Kyle Gibson had 7 in almost 200 IP and we all know how he can lose command at times. I love strikeouts and I'd take Bastardo on a 2 year deal but you would have to concede that he will move runners along the bases in crucial moments a couple times each year.
  23. Willihammer
    Reason not to sign Bastardo? He can't get lefties out
  24. Willihammer
    Great read. I'd be very curious to hear from the Mauer-haters out there any theories as to why the best catchers in history, by WAR, don't stack up at all against the best players of other positions (by WAR). And if WAR is broken, what alternative metric(s) should be used when considering HoF credentials for catchers.
  25. Willihammer
    Dodged a bullet. If he had gone to Boras we'd be SOL on an extension. Lock. Him. Up. Do. It. Best. Hitter. Of. A. Generation. Make. It. Happen. Now. Do it. Now. 3. 2. 1. Lock. Him. Up.
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