Willihammer
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Everything posted by Willihammer
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The Twins' Next Hall Of Famer
Willihammer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One school of thought is that a HoF should have an MVP type 7 year peak, combined with overall career totals that meet certain milestones. He probably has a peak in the bank already, so he just needs to pad his career totals, esp. WAR. And the trend towards the public (and I assume the BBWAA will follow) emphasizing WAR over hits, HR, etc is another reason that delaying his eligibility would probably help his case IMO, since there's no way he reaches those. But, he's 33 with 45 rWAR. Finishing somewhere around 55-65 WAR seems possible if he rebounds. -
I think most fans and pundits would rank Berrios a better prospect than May pre 2015, and less than Liriano cca 2006. If you use those two as a rough range of outcomes it seems reasonable Berrios falls in the middle somewhere, which would be right about 180-190 IP in the regular season.
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Shut down a productive pitcher and hurt your playoff chances, or, keep him going and risk damaging him long term? Seems like a crummy problem to have IMO.
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What if the Twins make the playoffs?
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Question, if the plan is to limit both Berrios' service time and IP, then why start him at Rochester at all? If its a foregone conclusion that he will pitch for the club after the extra year of control is gained, and there is a ~190 IP limit, then why waste any innings in Rochester? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Extended ST to stay loose for 3-4 weeks instead? Or push his entire ST timeline back 3-4 weeks?
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The Final Boss, aka Stone Fastball, aka Seung-hwan Oh
Willihammer replied to Willihammer's topic in Other Baseball
Four pitches though. Plus, $5m for a year with incentives for a 2nd at 6m? Seems like a good price in this market. -
The Final Boss, aka Stone Fastball, aka Seung-hwan Oh
Willihammer replied to Willihammer's topic in Other Baseball
Damn. Missed out http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/cardinals-sign-seung-hwan-oh-korea.html -
Is this true? Source?
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He's not on trial for his life. An award for a game is at stake, that's all. The burden of proof shouldn't be the same. But there is evidence, possibly unreliable evidence but it exists, of failed tests and eyewitnesses, etc. That would be enough for me to exclude him. YMMV.
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Are you saying the same things as monkeypaws then? I can't tell where the disagreement is. I assumed you were hinting at the often repeated argument that Bonds accomplishments pre-PEDs are good enough to warrant induction.
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Be that as it is, when Bonds and Clemens took banned substances, they traded their legacies for the benefit of free agent dollars and years when they should have been in decline. To the tune of 150m+ each. That was their decision. They got their rewards already. They can't have it both ways.
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I bet the carry over is coincidental to some pre-existing hubris or other failing in the psyche of these crooked cops. If they didn't manifest in law enforcement, they would in other ways. Most people have no trouble telling the difference. Hell, look at the popularity and outrage over this documentary. A lot of them are the people who gobble up the bad cop stories. I know I am. If anything, the danger is taking it too far, and mistaking this documentary for truth which it is not.
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The Bad Cop movies make no pretensions about that. That is pure entertainment, people know the difference. The media we need to think about are ones that pretend to relay the truth in an objective, fact-telling way. Like the news or this documentary itself.
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Players have cheated in the past and gotten awarded with HoF inductions. That's regrettable. The goal should be to stop doing that. What we shouldn't do, IMO, is use those mistakes as justification to keep on putting cheaters in the Hall.
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As a kid who grew up in the 90s, Griffey has a special place in my childhood. I remember playing pickup games with buddies at the local park (back when parks still had baseball fields) and everyone of us idolized Griffey. We all copied the swing (or tried to). He was THE guy. I'm very happy for him.
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Regression Candidates in 2016
Willihammer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One guy I would put money on to regress is Kevin Jepsen. In the half-season he iptched for us he posted career bests in FIP, LOB%, WHIP, ERA, K/BB, etc.- 41 replies
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- miguel sano
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Here is a clip from Kiss the Girls, possibly the scene Dassey had in mind when he drew the picture for the defense/prosecution investigator. Evidently the killer doesn't cut the girls' hair in the books but he does in the movie adaptation at some point.
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A couple thing the series really drives home for me- 1. the unreliability of memory. Many examples throughout but the best is probably the first victim who identified Avery as her attacker, mistakenly, and testified that he was the culprit. Eyewitnesses, investigators and police mis-remembering their own words or saying something to the effect of "I wouldn't have said it like that," even when those conversations were recorded. 2. how easily suggestible people are, especially kids. Brendan Dassey's confession. The lab tester. The 7 jurors who initially voted "not guilty" and then changed their vote after deliberations (possibly there was compelling evidence not presented in the documentary?) 3. how heavily justice relies on fair and competent judges. As Strang points out at the end, it seems ridiculous that the same judge who would grant Dassey a new public defender would not later give him a re-trial that throws out the evidence his first lawyer obtained (on behalf of the prosecution no less). The whole Dassey situation, from the investigators tricking him into confession, the absent public defender, the judge who doesn't recognize his own inconsistency, is probably the most outrageous and disappointing thing to me.
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Yeah I remember thinking during the jury selection process, why couldn't thay have shipped in 12 people from St Croix county who would have been watching MSP news? Maybe that is too far away to be considered a jury of his "peers?" One thing I noticed when Avery told the judge he wouldn't testify, was that he had some dry mouth going. Not sure if that was a tell of some kind. Maybe he was just thirsty.
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I wonder how the 2nd Avery trial would have gone if Steven had testified. IIRC we weren't given any insight into the decision not to. Any theories about that? The most confusing thing to me is how any of the evidence obtained by Manitowac staff was even allowed into the trial. Blood, key, bullet, etc.
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Why haven't the Twins extended Sano yet?
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Agree. IMO people make way too much of Dozier's pull tendencies. Pulled balls tend to be harder hit, tend to go for more xbhs (a category Dozier finished highly in). I'd say Dozier's biggest flaw is popping up too many balls. Otherwise his approach is damn near flawless IMHO.
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Yankees and Red Sox have really taken the complaints about their games being too long to heart.
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Agree on healthcare and defense but not sold on higher ed. There is inelastic demand and to an extent its a public good but higher ed doesn't suffer from information disadvantages of health or defense and the free market, with some oversight, could lead to the most desirable outcomes, at least in avoiding the insolvency that the current system of state and federal aid has created.
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The Pay it Forward idea has been talked about in this thread. I do not believe its actually been implemented in Oregon or anywhere else because of the challenges it presents (correct me if I'm wrong). The most obvious challenge being how to collect a 3-4% income tax on people who could simply move out of state to avoid them. Your other ideas, controlling how student loans are spent, forgiving student debt, making trade schools free - all sound like a lot of fun. How would you pay for them?
