Nick Nelson

"There isn't any shortcut to get where we want to go." Although the above quote from Terry Ryan was published back in February, the sentiment has been a common refrain for the Twins' general manager throughout his ongoing efforts to rebuild a broken product in Minnesota. No shortcuts. And why not? It's a nice-sounding way to quell the growing calls from a disgruntled fan base for aggressive measures to restore the franchise to contention. Shortcuts sound bad. They sound lazy, and sloppy, and potentially harmful in the grand scheme. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But when you more closely examine that mentality, and the present state of the organization, it's awfully tough not to be disenchanted by the front office's apparent commitment to building internally and avoiding impactful additions that may prove costly. In terms of position players, the Twins are set up to fill their needs from within the system. Whether in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks), the infield (Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Danny Santana) or catcher (Josmil Pinto) there are a number of candidates to lend support at the major-league level within the next few years. On the pitching side, the situation is considerably more dire. Alex Meyer is presently lighting up radar guns in Arizona, touching 100 MPH with his fastball, and he is the shining beacon in the high levels of the organization. However, he also may be the lone hope for top-of-rotation support within the next several years. Kyle Gibson stumbled in his big-league debut and appears to lack dominant upside, though I remain confident in his ability to become a quality MLB player. Trevor May could be destined for the bullpen. Beyond those three, there aren't really any legit pitching prospects to be found on the farm above Single-A. Names like J.O. Berrios, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe deservedly draw attention, but they're all teenagers and shouldn't realistically be expected to become rotation staples for four or five years, at least. So if indeed the Twins are unwilling to take "shortcuts" in the process of rebuilding their starting corps, we could be looking at a depressingly lengthy timeline. Considering just how far behind the pack the Twins are lagging in the starting pitching department, it's hard to imagine Meyer and the existing mish-mash of iffy talent aligning to create a rotation that is any kind of true asset within the next handful of seasons. Outside help is needed. That might require taking steps that could be viewed as shortcuts. It might require an approach that Ryan has consistently eschewed: building through free agency. Of course, there are other ways to acquire ready or near-ready pitching talent. We saw that last year, when Ryan dealt away Denard Span and Ben Revere to bring aboard two high-level prospects and an established guy in Vance Worley. But the Twins are now almost completely bereft of desirable trade chips at the big-league level, and giving up prospects sort of contradicts the whole rebuilding concept. Signing free agent talent costs nothing but money (and maybe a second-round draft pick, if you're ambitious). Now, obviously, any move that endangers the club's long-term outlook would be ill-advised at this point. So Ryan should clearly avoid making sizable commitments to aging veterans that would restrict his ability to spend in future years. But there are plenty of 30-and-under pitchers entering the market, and the Twins aren't remotely close to hitting any sort of payroll ceiling, now or in the near future. Ryan and his staff have frequently scoffed at the notion of taking shortcuts to address their problems, but the current layout of the organization calls for an influx of more immediate pitching help, if the Twins truly hope to field a high-caliber rotation within the next several years. As loyal as ownership has been to Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and the rest of the gang, I can't imagine they'll continue to stick with the current leadership if the team remains stuck in a holding pattern while waiting for teenagers to develop into major-league pitchers. All of which reinforces my belief that the Twins will, indeed, spend this offseason.

Over the past two weeks, I've profiled five different high-end starting pitchers that the Twins may be inclined to pursue on the free agent market. Of course, those who have followed this organization could be excused for expressing skepticism over the likelihood of one of these big names actually landing in Minnesota, even with signals that the club plans to be "uber-aggressive" in its search for arms. Simply put, Terry Ryan has never acquired an expensive big-name pitcher through free agency. Ever. When it comes to signing highly sought pitchers in a competitive market, the Twins don't have much of an advantage.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] They're unlikely to offer an overwhelming sum of money and they certainly can't tout an immediately competitive environment. But one area where they may have an edge on opponents is the realm of risk/reward arms, with major question marks but significant upside. Think Rich Harden. Now, obviously last year's Harden signing was an extreme long shot that paid no dividends, but the underlying reasoning was sound. It was a no-risk move that added a talented arm to the mix at virtually no cost, and for his part, Harden was likely compelled to come here because of the wide-open opportunity in the rotation. The Twins will face a similar scenario this offseason. Ryan has stated that only Kevin Correia and (if healthy) Sam Deduno are assured spots in the 2014 starting corps, with the remaining group of contenders looking even weaker than it did at this time a year ago. Any pitchers with depressed value looking to reestablish themselves with an incentive-laden one-year MLB contract or a minor-league deal could see Minnesota as an attractive destination. So, which pitchers in this year's free agent crop fall into that category? Let's take a look at some: Edinson Volquez, RHP, Age 30 In 2008, the year after the Reds acquired him in exchange for Josh Hamilton, Volquez looked like quite the get. At age 24, the right-hander went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, earning an All-Star appearance and finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Unfortunately, it's pretty much been all downhill for the Dominican hurler ever since. While he's flashed glimpses of potential, Volquez's career has largely been marred by injuries and erratic performance. He hasn't posted an above-average ERA since that rookie campaign. In 2012 he led the league in walks issued. In 2013 he led the league in earned runs allowed, despite totaling only 170 innings. Volquez was released by the Padres in mid-August with a 6.01 ERA. He latched on with the Dodgers and pitched reasonably well in the final month (4.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 28 innings) but nonetheless it seems unlikely that any contending team will want to guarantee him anything. The Twins, meanwhile, could afford to gamble on his mid-90s fastball and hope that their pitching staff can coax more strikes. Roy Halladay, RHP, Age 36 Halladay's drop-off has been rather precipitous. Just two years ago he was continuing his reign as the most effective workhorse in the game, winning 19 games with a 2.35 ERA over 233 innings to finish second in the Cy Young voting. In nine seasons from 2003 to 2011, Halladay led his league in complete games seven times. Doc's right arm is a modern marvel, but it's looking like the extremely taxing workload has finally caught up with him in his mid-30s. In 2012 he posted an uncharacteristically mediocre 4.49 ERA while being limited to 156 innings, his lowest total since 2005. His 2013 season was almost completely wiped out by shoulder problems, as he managed to get through just 62 innings with a brutal 6.82 ERA while his average fastball velocity dropped to 88 MPH. Halladay was shut down in September due to dead arm and it sure does look like he's completely drained at this point, but this is a likely Hall of Famer who is young enough yet that a rebound can't be ruled out. Johan Santana, LHP, Age 34 This is the guy that everyone wants to talk about. The idea of a Twins/Santana reunion is highly appealing to those who wish to relive the glory days, when Minnesota ruled over the AL Central in large part thanks to their premier ace and his unhittable changeup. Those glory days are a distant memory at this point, however, for both Santana and the Twins. While the club has futilely searched for a successor at the top of the rotation, the lefty has seen his career unravel along with his left shoulder. Santana has pitched only 117 innings over the past three years, with all of those coming in 2012 when he went 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA. In September of 2010 he underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder, and he was forced to undergo the same surgery again in April of this year after re-tearing the shoulder capsule. His prognosis at this point is not good, but the two-time Cy Young winner is still only 34 and at least looked decent after returning from his first surgery, putting up a 4.02 xFIP and averaging 8.5K/9 (his highest number since leaving the Twins) in 2012. He even threw a no-hitter. It would be a pretty cool story if he was able to revive his career back in MN. Shaun Marcum, RHP, Age 31 Despite his outstanding recent performance, including three straight seasons with a below average ERA, Marcum drew little interest on the free agent market last year due to health concerns, and wound up settling for a one-year deal worth $4 million. It turned out that the league-wide caution regarding Marcum was well warranted, as the righty ended up making just 14 appearances (12 starts) and posting a 5.29 ERA before his season ended in July due to thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery and will likely be seeking a minor-league deal this offseason. His health is an even greater point of an uncertainty than it was last year, but hopefully his procedure can clear up the arm problems that have bothered him in back-to-back seasons. He still has his relative youth and a steady track record to fall back on. Colby Lewis, RHP, Age 34 Lewis missed the entire 2013 season due to surgeries on his elbow and hip, but had established himself as a quality pitcher prior to the health woes. In his three seasons with the Rangers following a return from Japan in 2010, he registered a 3.93 ERA along with a 458/135 K/BB ratio in 506 innings. As a guy who has demonstrated the ability to throw strikes, miss bats and limit hits -- with his issues largely stemming from a high home run rate in Arlington -- Lewis looks like a very strong fit for Target Field and the Twins. Gavin Floyd, RHP, Age 30 Another example of a homer-prone hurler who may benefit from Target Field's spacious confines, Floyd has been a steadily solid yet unspectacular pitcher in Chicago for many years. From 2008 through 2012, he never posted an ERA lower than 3.84 nor one higher than 4.37. He'd be an appealing target for the Twins if not for his enormous health concerns, which overshadow anyone else on this list. Floyd underwent two surgeries on his right elbow in May of this year, repairing both his UCL and flexor muscle. The recovery timeline for such a procedure is 14-19 months, meaning it will be tough to count on the righty to provide anything in 2014.

So far in this Free Agent Pitcher Profile series, I have taken a look at four different high-profile names on the market, all of whom strike me as logical fits for the Twins for specific reasons. Tim Lincecum has his strikeout proficiency. Phil Hughes has his youth. Ubaldo Jimenez has his ace upside. Ervin Santana has his stinginess with hits and base runners. Josh Johnson has the potential to offer all the above. But he's also coming off a worse season than any of the aforementioned hurlers, and he recently underwent "minor" surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (We saw how that type of thing went with Vance Worley and Scott Diamond this year.) Because of those factors, he figures to be far more affordable than the rest of the high-end free agent crop, and probably won't require a long-term commitment, meaning he might be right be in the Twins' wheelhouse. Why Does He Fit? For a seven-year stretch with the Marlins from 2006 through 2012, Johnson was one of the premier performers in the National League, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while allowing just 59 home runs in 904 innings. The righty routinely posted strong strikeout rates, induced a fair share of grounders, and was on multiple occasions a legitimate Cy Young candidate (especially in 2010 when he finished with a 2.30 ERA). When he's healthy and at his best, Johnson has been a true ace. He doesn't turn 30 until January so age isn't a major concern, and while arm issues bogged him down this season the hope is that an offseason elbow clean-up will restore him to his previous level of effectiveness. Given his situation, Johnson seems almost certain to take a one-year make-good deal. That involves little risk, and while such a short contract wouldn't seem to fit with the Twins' long-term rebuilding plan, a strong bounceback season would give the club a lot of options. They could flip him before the deadline for prospects, or seek to lock him up with a long-term deal that would entrench him at the top of their rotation for several years. It's worth noting that Johnson was born in Minneapolis, so he might be slightly more inclined to view the Twins as a landing spot, though that shouldn't be assumed. Why Doesn't He Fit? Johnson's health is a major question mark, and that's nothing new. Durability concerns have plagued his entire career. He's reached 200 innings only once. Since first becoming a full-time big-leaguer in 2006, he has averaged fewer than 20 starts per year. And now he's coming off a season in which he battled forearm pain, posted a hideous 6.20 ERA and finished with just 81 innings. As he leaves the Blue Jays, Johnson has about as many red flags attached to him as a Canadian parade. That could repel a Twins club seeking to add reliability to a rotation that had only one member throw more than 152 innings in 2013. What Will He Cost? There seems to be widespread agreement that Johnson will seek a one-year deal, because it simply doesn't make much sense for him to do anything else. Nobody's going to make a huge commitment to a guy with an ominous medical situation, but Johnson has enough talent and track record that he could probably strike it big in a year if he returns to form in 2014. So what it will likely come down to is who can offer the most attractive situation for him this year. Money is part of that equation. In the Offseason Handbook, we guessed that he'd end up getting $7 million. More than likely he'll prefer to link up with a contender, but perhaps the Twins can sway him by significantly outbidding other interested parties. Jim Pohlad himself has said that he's willing to spend "any amount of money" on a current year contract, which would seemingly indicate that if Terry Ryan likes Johnson, the general manager will have approval to do whatever it takes to bring aboard the sometimes injured, sometimes elite starter.

The Royals took a gamble last offseason when they traded for Ervin Santana, who was coming off an ugly season in Anaheim where he went 9-13 with a 5.16 ERA while coughing up a league-leading 39 home runs. Kansas City didn't have to give up much in the deal, but they did take on a $12 million commitment to a pitcher in the wake of a poor season. For a club that's hardly been known for aggressive, win-now type moves, the splash certainly drew some attention (especially in combination with the blockbuster James Shields trade). The Royals ended up with their highest win total (86) since 1989 this season, and Santana played a big part, bouncing back in a major way to post a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 211 innings.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Considering that the right-hander had preceded his 2012 clunker with strong seasons in both 2011 and 2010, his down year looks like the outlier. As a 30-year-old with a recent record of success and the ability to miss some bats, Santana is arguably the top starting pitcher openly available this winter outside of Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka. Are the Twins prepared to become involved in what is sure to be a competitive market with the hopes of once again adding a Santana to the top of their rotation? Let's take a look at the pros and cons. Why Does He Fit? On a basic level, the problem with Twins pitching these days is quite obvious: they allow way too many hits. As a staff in 2013, they allowed the most knocks of any MLB team (1,591) and among the 11 pitchers that made at least one start for Minnesota, nine allowed an average of more than 10.0 hits per nine innings. To put that in some context, the American League average for H/9IP was 8.8 and only four qualifying pitchers finished the season with a mark of 10.0 or above. Santana would be a refreshing change of pace. His career H/9IP rate is 8.7 and he hasn't allowed more than a hit per inning since 2009. Even in 2012, when he struggled, Santana held opponents to a .238 batting average and registered a solid 1.27 WHIP; his disappointing results were largely tied to an absurdly high home run rate that was mostly out of line with the rest of his career, and almost surely wouldn't be repeated at Target Field. While he had a few elbow issues crop up in 2012 (another part of the reason Kansas City took a risk in acquiring him) he's mostly been injury-free since 2009, averaging 32 starts and 210 innings per season. Why Doesn't He Fit? Well, cost is going to be the main factor. I'm willing to believe that Terry Ryan and the Twins are prepared loosen the purse strings for a guy they really like, but even as a strong fit Santana may have priced himself out of their range with an outstanding season in KC. Since he carries fewer question marks than fellow top free agent talents such as Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Phil Hughes, Santana could be the most coveted option for clubs seeking reliable help at the top of the rotation (and looking to avoid the Tanaka sweepstakes). That means he may be looking at a contract approaching (or even exceeding) $100 million. Other than his price tag, it's tough to name a reason the Twins shouldn't at least pursue Santana. He's largely been a very good pitcher in recent years, he's reasonably young, he throws hard with good command and he's been quite durable. He's probably not going to be an "ace" in the traditional sense, but he might be the closest thing you'll find on this year's market. He's a safer bet than most of the alternatives. What Will He Cost? Offseason Handbook estimate: five years, $80 million. As always, the contract could easily prove larger since we can't really anticipate how much the new revenues will inflate the market, but I have a hard time believing he'll get less than that. Santana is coming off a career year and has a more consistently strong recent MLB track record than any of his free agent peers.