Nick Nelson

Oliveros is a righty. But I think Darnell could do the job. Held left-handed hitters to a 600 OPS in Triple-A this year.

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It's been a slow offseason thus far, with little Twins-related news outside of coaching hires and procedural roster moves, but an important date falls on Tuesday, which marks the deadline for MLB clubs to offer 2015 contracts to unsigned players. That means that the Twins will need to make decisions on all of their arbitration-eligible players. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski It's been a slow offseason thus far, with little Twins-related news outside of coaching hires and procedural roster moves, but an important date falls on Tuesday, which marks the deadline for MLB clubs to offer 2015 contracts to unsigned players. That means that the Twins will need to make decisions on all of their arbitration-eligible players. They already made their call on one of those players, when they announced last week that they had outrighted right-hander Anthony Swarzak from the 40-man roster, effectively making him a free agent. I always felt that Swarzak was somewhat undervalued, because although he was unspectacular, he was pretty solid as a long reliever thanks to his durable arm and his consistent ability to come in and throw strikes for multiple innings. There was nothing glamorous about his role -- he was usually called on to simply soak up innings in an eventual loss following a short start -- but since 2012 Swarzak has ranked second among all MLB relievers in innings pitched, and he has a career 3.66 ERA out of the bullpen. Having said all that, Swarzak's job is not one you want to pay much more than the minimum to cover, and the Twins have plenty of other players that they could utilize or evaluate in that role. Ultimately, the team decided to go in a new direction. Might they make the same choice with some of their other arbitration-eligible players? Let's go through them on a case-by-case basis (contract estimates from the Offseason Handbook): Trevor Plouffe, 3B Estimated Salary: $5M That estimate might be a little on the high side (MLB Trade Rumors predicted $4.3 million) but Plouffe will be in line for a hefty raise in his second go at arbitration. This year he made $2.35 million and set career highs in several categories, including plate appearances, doubles, RBI and OPS+. Retaining him is a no-brainer, though I think it's best to stay year-to-year with him for now rather than looking at a long-term extension. Stay or Go: Stay Brian Duensing, LHP Estimated Salary: $3.5M This is Duensing's third turn at arbitration. Last year he got a $700K raise up to $2 million and this time he'll probably be in line for a larger increase, since he posted an improved ERA and WHIP with a similar workload. The lefty-stifling Duensing is what he is at this point: very adequate in a role that is not hard to fill for less $3 million. Since the money isn't that big of a deal, what it really comes down to is whether the Twins have another lefty reliever they trust outside of Caleb Thielbar. I'd guess they can find one. Stay or Go: Go Tommy Milone, LHP Estimated Salary: $2.5M This might be the trickiest arbitration decision the Twins face. On the one hand, here's an established big-league starter who's only 27 with a 3.98 career ERA. On the other hand, he's never been anything special, and he was terrible after coming to Minnesota, and you could argue that the Twins have at least six guys who should be in line for starts ahead of him. I think he's tendered, but hopefully his elevated pay doesn't influence whether or not he makes the roster next spring. Stay or Go: Stay Casey Fien, RHP Estimated Salary: $2M Though he wasn't quite as good in 2014 as he was in his breakout 2013 season, Fien was plenty valuable as a late-inning reliever. With Jared Burton and Swarzak gone, he's suddenly the most experienced righty in the bullpen. He'll be back. Stay or Go: Stay Jordan Schafer, OF Estimated Salary: $1.6M When he was acquired off waivers in August after being cut by the Braves with a .468 OPS, I figured Schafer's chances of sticking with the Twins for any significant length of time were low. But, in an admittedly short 40-game stretch, the 27-year-old played some of the best ball of his big-league career here in Minnesota, looking every bit the part of at least a quality fourth outfielder. Even if you don't expect him to keep up at that rate (and you shouldn't), he's young and he's got all the requisite skills to be worth keeping around, especially with the Twins' outlook in the outfield clouded by delayed prospect arrivals. Stay or Go: Stay Eduardo Nunez, IF/OF Estimated Salary: $1M This should be an easy decision. Although he offered some positional flexibility after coming over in a trade from the Yankees, appearing all over the field, Nunez was quite bad both offensively and defensively. His job should go to an internal candidate with some upside, or a new pickup who brings more to the table. Stay or Go: Go View full article

Thanks for starting this thread. I've been curious about intriguing names that are available in the Rule 5, especially with Swarzak being outrighted to open up a spot. DeShields is very interesting.

Whoops, thanks. Fixed.

When Doug Mientkiewicz emerged as an early contender for the Twins' managerial job, his lack of experience served both as a point against him and a point in his favor. On the one hand, Mientkiewicz hadn't managed above Single-A, and had only been there for two years. That's not a lot of track record for a big-league skipper. On the other hand, he had the advantage of being fresh, and not set in his ways. It is difficult for any long-timer to match the fire and ambition that burn within a guy who's just getting started. Image courtesy of Bryce Kluckhohn When Doug Mientkiewicz emerged as an early contender for the Twins' managerial job, his lack of experience served both as a point against him and a point in his favor. On the one hand, Mientkiewicz hadn't managed above Single-A, and had only been there for two years. That's not a lot of track record for a big-league skipper. On the other hand, he had the advantage of being fresh, and not set in his ways. It is difficult for any long-timer to match the fire and ambition that burn within a guy who's just getting started. The Twins are looking to return to contention with a young roster, and there's an appeal to the dynamic where both players and manager are exploring new frontiers together. Growing together. Ultimately the team decided to opt for more experience in choosing Paul Molitor who has been coaching for almost two decades, albeit never in the role he will now be filling. Because Molitor is new to this particular gig, some expected that the front office would surround him with coaches who have been around for a while, but that's hardly been the case. Quite to the contrary, in fact. The Twins wasted little time in announcing that they would retain Tom Brunansky as hitting coach. His experience is modest; he's been Minnesota's hitting coach for the last two years, after serving in the same role for a couple of seasons in the minors. Prior to that, he was coaching a high school baseball team. Rudy Hernandez, tabbed as Bruno's assistant hitting coach, has only coached in the minors, and was promoted directly from rookie ball. Neil Allen, who has reportedly been hired as pitching coach, was brought in from Tampa Bay's system. He has worked almost exclusively in the minors, with the exception of a year spent as the Yankees bullpen coach. Eddie Guardado, who appears to be the choice for Twins bullpen coach, was playing up until 2009 and hasn't served in any official coaching capacity, though he has been an instructor in spring training. Newly appointed third base coach Gene Glynn is the antithesis of this trend, as he has a considerable amount of experience coaching in the majors. He's logged more than a decade on big-league staffs, including stints as third base coach for the Rockies, Cubs and Giants. Yet, Glynn hasn't been on an MLB coaching staff for nearly a decade. Following his departure from San Francisco, he spent six years as a scout for the Rays and has spent the last three managing in Rochester. I like this mix that the Twins have found with their new coaching alignment. You've got several rising guys who are are getting their first real chance and will certainly be driven to excel. You've got a manager who is in some respects very experienced but is essentially a novice. And then there's Glynn, who has put in almost 30 years as a coach, coordinator and scout, with a resume that lists six different organizations. He was a candidate for the Twins manager job and could become a hot name around the league if he takes part in a turnaround for the club. Everyone tries to do well at their job, but there's inherently an extra level of motivation at play when trying to further one's own career and livelihood. I think it's harsh to suggest that Ron Gardenhire and his coaches were "mailing it in" in recent years, but did they grow too comfortable? Was the same drive there as in Gardy's early years, when he led youthful rosters to several postseason appearances as a fresh big-league manager? That is apparently what the Twins are trying to recapture with this restructured group -- a hunger that starts at the top and is infectious toward young incoming players -- and all the appointees thus far seem to fit in that regard. View full article

Good input, and good points. I'll admit I don't know much about the injury and there isn't a long list of pitchers who've been through it to go on for precedent. But on a one-year deal (with a club option, ideally), I still think the risk is worth it.

Berardino (who's been killing it with offseason coverage) also serves up this tidbit: Just got off the phone with @FrankViola16. Said Terry Ryan called him last night to tell him he was out of the running for #MNTwins PC.

According to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, the Twins have interviewed Carl Willis for their vacant pitching coach position. Willis has previously served in that role with the Indians and Mariners. Berardino's article has plenty of quotes from Willis: http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/11/19/twinsights-carl-willis-interviewed-twins-pitching-coach-opening/ On the surface, this seems like a strong choice that would appease a lot of fans. He's got a good rep and plenty of experience outside the organization, having coached numerous All-Stars. Your thoughts? Would Willis be a good pick for this all-important position?

... Until he's not. If it was a recurring injury or chronic arm problem, I'd see it as a greater concern. I just think he's had an unfortunate series of ailments. He's far from a sure thing but I'd still probably be willing to give him an MLB deal if that's what it took. It'd be a better move than giving guaranteed money to Pelfrey 8 months off Tommy John. At the very least, a minor-league deal with hefty reachable incentives. They can afford it.

I feel like I've written this article before. Maybe that's because I have. A year ago, Brett Anderson looked like a good target for the Twins to pursue. This time around, because of his circumstances -- and the team's -- he seems like an even more logical fit. Will Terry Ryan feel the same way? And if so, what will it cost to bring in the left-hander? Image courtesy of Cary Edmondson I feel like I've written this article before. Maybe that's because I have. A year ago, Brett Anderson looked like a good target for the Twins to pursue. This time around, because of his circumstances -- and the team's -- he seems like an even more logical fit. Will Terry Ryan feel the same way? And if so, what will it cost to bring in the left-hander? Last offseason, Anderson was a known trade candidate, with just one guaranteed season remaining on his contract and Oakland's rotation flush with young talent. Given his age, his previous success and his depressed value coming off a bad season, he had the makings of a great buy-low candidate with big upside. Ultimately, it was another pitching-needy team that chose to take the gamble on Anderson, as the Rockies shipped out a couple of prospects in December to bring him aboard. That move didn't really pan out for Colorado. Once again, the oft-injured hurler could not stay healthy. He made only eight starts, finishing with 43 1/3 total innings. A fractured finger cost him most of the first half, and a bulging disc in his back that required surgery cost him most of the second. It was the fifth straight year in which health issues prevented Anderson from being able to get in anywhere close to a full season's work. He hasn't completed even 45 innings in any of the past three years. The overwhelming durability concerns caused the Rockies to opt out of his 2015 option, making him a free agent, and he might have trouble finding a guaranteed contract. Now is the perfect time for a savvy GM to strike, and the Twins are in a better position than perhaps any other club to do so. Obviously, Minnesota needs pitching help about as badly as anyone. But they also have considerable depth in the rotation, with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey and others all potentially in the mix. It might not be great quality of depth, but you can argue that all those guys deserve a chance. The Twins can afford to gamble on an injury risk like Anderson because if he gets hurt once again, they have viable options to fall back on. It's also an attractive situation for the player. Whereas a contending team would want to have strong contingency plans in place -- and thus, a higher barrier of entry -- the lefty should have no trouble locking up a spot in this rotation as long as he's healthy and effective in spring training. From a pure talent perspective, he would be arguably the best starter on the roster. Beyond the mutually beneficial circumstances in place, there are three key reasons I believe Anderson makes a ton of sense for Ryan and the Twins. He's still really young. Hughes was 27 when the Twins signed him last year -- uncommonly young for a free agent. Anderson doesn't turn 27 until February, so he's still right in the midst of his physical prime. And the silver lining in all the injuries and setbacks is that his arm is still pretty fresh. It's rare to find a starting pitcher who's been in the majors for six years and has thrown fewer than 500 innings. He doesn't have chronic arm injuries. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery and hasn't had any elbow issues since. The first injury that cost him several months this year was a broken finger suffered when he got hit by a pitch while batting -- total freak incident and not a long-term concern. The bulging disc that ended his season is more worrisome, as he battled low back soreness late in 2013 as well, but his August surgery hopefully resolved the problem. He should be 100 percent in March. As far as rehab projects go, Anderson's a much safer bet than someone like Josh Johnson or Chad Billingsley, both of whom are coming back from arm operations. He's still got it. Although his 2014 campaign did nothing to reverse his rep for being fragile, Anderson did show something while on the mound. In an admittedly small sample size, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA and 2.99 FIP, and did so while making half his starts at Coors Field. He looked very much like the guy who had emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the game years earlier. Anderson is the rare example of a young pitcher who could be signed to a low-money, low-years deal while offering the real potential to be a No. 2 or No. 3 type in the rotation. Those opportunities don't come along very often and the Twins should be looking to pounce on this one if they can. His history of health problems is daunting, but one of these years Anderson is going to stay on the field and when he does I suspect that the team that employs him will benefit greatly. No club could use that boost more than the Twins. View full article

Baseball America released its annual list of the Top 10 prospects in the Twins organization, as compiled by Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. You can read the writeup here but here's how BA's list shakes out: 1. Byron Buxton, of 2. Miguel Sano, 3b 3. Jose Berrios, rhp 4. Kohl Stewart, rhp 5. Alex Meyer, rhp 6. Nick Gordon, ss 7. Nick Burdi, rhp 8. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b 9. Trevor May, rhp 10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b Some interesting things to note: * Buxton & Sano still in the 1 & 2 spots despite tumultuous/lost seasons. * Order of top pitchers has gone from Meyer-Stewart-Berrios last year to Berrios-Stewart-Meyer this year. * Top draft pick Nick Gordon already in as the third-highest position player on the list. * Nick Burdi at No. 7 as a pure relief prospect. Guess triple-digit heat and a dazzling pro debut will do that. * I was a little surprised to see Trevor May sneak in. Rosario still hanging on after a rough year, though he did drop three spots. Any thoughts? Any rankings you'd take issue with? Anyone who's not listed that you think should have been?

Well, his value when the Twins acquired him was Sam Fuld. And that was before he put up a 7.06 ERA after coming here. I'm guessing he won't bring back much.

I don't think that's quite fair. Bourjos might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball, and there's value in that for a team like the Twins. I'm just not sure he hits enough to be a quality regular.

The offseason is underway, and although we've already seen a couple notable signings, most analysts are expecting the free agent market to develop slowly this year. Still, with the door now open, conversations are beginning to take place as we build toward the MLB Winter Meetings, which are three weeks away. Let's take a look at the early Twins-related rumblings. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken The offseason is underway, and although we've already seen a couple notable signings, most analysts are expecting the free agent market to develop slowly this year. Still, with the door now open, conversations are beginning to take place as we build toward the MLB Winter Meetings, which are three weeks away. Let's take a look at the early Twins-related rumblings. * Unsurprisingly, the Twins were listed by Ken Rosenthal as one team that has shown preliminary interest in Torii Hunter. The past history, and Minnesota's need for a corner outfielder who can help mentor the youngsters, make it easy to see why they would pursue him. Hunter has stated publicly that he plans to play in 2015, even though he'll be turning 40 in July. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowsky declared that he "probably won't re-sign Torii," so the veteran will almost certainly be playing elsewhere next year. But considering that he's near the end of his career, Hunter is likely to latch on with a team that has a better shot at contending than the Twins. That's probably just as well, since this club needs defensive help in the outfield and at this point Hunter doesn't really provide that. * Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported over the weekend that the Twins have inquired about Justin Masterson. Although he's coming off a rough season, Masterson is only 29 and was excellent in 2011 and 2013. He was the starter we suggested signing in our blueprint for the Offseason Handbook, and was the top name on a list of buy-low starter candidates published here last week. Needless to say, I'm glad to hear that Ryan and the Twins are at least moving quickly to get on his radar. Whether or not they sign him, Masterson fits the profile that Minnesota should be targeting: a youngish guy who won't require a long commitment and offers a realistic chance of being more than a fourth or fifth starter. * Wolfson also put out Alex Rios as a name worth watching with the Twins seeking a right-handed bat for the outfield. Rios is preferable to Hunter, as he's much younger and offers more in the speed and defense departments. As a righty with pull power, Rios seems like a nice fit for Target Field and for the Twins. But his production has been inconsistent and he's almost 34, so it'd be tough to justify a multi-year deal, especially for a risk-averse GM like Ryan. Who's to say Rios will be a better option a year from now than someone like Eddie Rosario, or Aaron Hicks, or even Trevor Plouffe? Ultimately, the length of Rios' desired deal could be a stumbling block. View full article

I think someone might give Rasmus three years. He's only 28, and while he hasn't quite lived up to his elite prospect hype he's been a productive center fielder. I'd be a little nervous about giving him that long a deal with his increasing whiffs, not to mention the presence of Rosario and others in the system.

Rasmus is really the only FA center fielder worth mentioning but yes, that is a point in his favor. You could go with him in CF next year then shift him to left once Buxton arrives.

It's been clear for some time now: the Twins need to find themselves a left fielder during the offseason. What should they be looking for in a prospective pickup at this position? Well, that also seems fairly clear. Considering that they fielded the worst defensive outfield in baseball this year, the Twins should really be seeking a player who can cover ground and provide some much-needed help for the pitching staff. Today, we'll take a look at some outfielders available on the free agent market who are known for their fielding chops. Image courtesy of Benny Sieu It's been clear for some time now: the Twins need to find themselves a left fielder during the offseason. What should they be looking for in a prospective pickup at this position? Well, that also seems fairly clear. Considering that they fielded the worst defensive outfield in baseball this year, the Twins should really be seeking a player who can cover ground and provide some much-needed help for the pitching staff. Today, we'll take a look at some outfielders available on the free agent market who are known for their fielding chops. Although I'm not a huge fan of any defensive metrics, UZR is generally considered to be the most accurate measure over a large sample, so I've listed each player's career average per 150 games (in essence, this is meant to convey the number of runs saved defensively per season). For reference, Twins left fielders collectively posted a -14.7 UZR/150 mark in 2014. Yuck. Nyjer Morgan Age: 34 B/T: L/L Career UZR/150: 15.7 Morgan has been a defensive wizard. His 15.7 UZR/150 mark is off-the-charts good, and he has proven to be a major asset at all three outfield spots. He has also been a solid hitter for the most part and and an aggressive threat on the basepaths. Unfortunately, he's in his mid-30s and doesn't have much of a recent MLB track record; he was bad in 2012, spent the 2013 season playing in Japan, and missed most of 2014 with a knee injury. It's fair to wonder what "Tony Plush" is capable of at this point, though he'd be awfully intriguing on a minor-league deal. Chris Denorfia Age: 34 B/T: R/R UZR/150: 6.7 Denorfia has spent years reliably patrolling the spacious outfield at Petco Park, and has usually managed to put up solid offensive numbers in the notoriously hitter-hampering yard, though he's coming off his worst season at the plate. He's a .292 career hitter with a .789 OPS against left-handed pitchers, and would be interesting as a potential platoon partner for Jordan Schafer. Colby Rasmus Age: 28 B/T: L/L UZR/150: -0.3 Don't be fooled by that sub par overall UZR number; Rasmus has spent nearly his entire career playing center field. As an average defender there, he figures to be well above average in a corner, if he's willing to make that transition. In some ways, Rasmus is very appealing, as he has averaged about 20 homers in six MLB seasons and is the youngest player on this list. On the other hand, those factors will probably make him fairly expensive and he has posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage in three of the last four years, with K-rates that alarmingly continue to climb. Endy Chavez Age: 36 B/T: L/L Career UZR/150: 7.5 Like Rasmus, Chavez's UZR total understates his ability because he's spent so much time playing center field. In the corners he has been nothing short of spectacular, though his rates have sagged in the past couple years as he's aged into his late 30s. The Mariners still liked his defense enough to get him into 177 games in those two seasons, despite a .650 OPS, but he can't really be viewed as a candidate to start at this point. Emilio Bonifacio Age: 29 B/T: S/R UZR/150: 3.1 The 29-year-old has carved out a nice career as a glove-first utility man, and he does his best work in the outfield corners, but he doesn't bring enough with the bat to profile as a starter. He has posted an OPS above .700 only once in his career. Alex Rios Age: 33 B/T: R/R UZR/150: 5.5 Rios has been so-so in center but excellent in right field. He hasn't played much in left but there's no reason to think he couldn't. He is known for his cannon arm, and brings more with the stick than most players listed here. He is also an excellent base stealer and the Twins would probably welcome more speed to the lineup. The only question is whether they're willing to commit millions over multiple years to an inconsistent player in his mid-30s. Nori Aoki Age: 32 B/T: L/R UZR/150: 3.6 Aoki has mostly played right field, where he rates very well, but he would seemingly be a fit in left. He is a disciplined hitter without much pop, sporting a .287/.353/.387 slash line in three MLB seasons with the Brewers and Royals. He is said to be seeking a three-year deal. SUMMARY Out of the players on this list, we can probably rule out Morgan, Chavez and Bonifacio, at least as starting options. They just don't hit enough to anchor a corner outfield spot. Denorfia would be fairly cheap and his righty bat would complement Schafer well. If the Twins are looking to make a more significant splash, then Rasmus, Rios and Aoki are all worth a long look. Who appeals to you most out of this group? Or would you prefer to look elsewhere, like a trade or international signing? View full article

Sure. They are bounce-back candidates. I'd just rather have more than less. The Twins are in a good position to gamble on these types of players, and also offer an appealing situation to bring said players aboard. There are health risks on the list (some more than others), but every pitcher is a health risk.

Here's a shot of new manager Paul Molitor slipping on the new duds (via Brace Hemmelgarn):