Nick Nelson

Download attachment: Deduno1.jpg I've been bullish on Samuel Deduno, and it's been a point of disagreement between myself and some other generally like-minded Twins writers. Aaron Gleeman has repeatedly warned against buying into the right-hander's small-sample success and the Geek recently lamented the idea of a long-term contract. It's easy to see why any stat-savvy observer would hold reservations. Deduno has performed poorly in a number of key peripheral categories, namely strikeout-to-walk ratio, which many -- myself included -- view as one of the most important indicators of pitcher success. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But, as I've often said, Deduno is a unique and unconventional case, so in assessing his value going forward, I think it is wise to set aside the statistics we tend to lean on, and look at him through a different lens. The metric that largely causes skepticism with regards to Deduno, as mentioned above, is his K/BB ratio. Last year, in 79 innings with the Twins, the righty totaled nearly as many walks (53) as strikeouts (57), which is almost always a sign that disaster is on the horizon. This year he's cut down the walks, lowering his BB/9 rate from 6.0 to 3.3*, but he's lost a bunch of strikeouts in the process, with his K/9 dropping from 6.5 to 5.0. While improved, his 42/28 K/BB is not close to the 2-to-1 ratio you like to see as a minimum. (*By the way, this probably deserves a post of its own, but I'm thinking Rick Anderson might deserve a TON of credit for Deduno's unprecedented improvements with control. I remember hearing that the pitching coach was working very closely with the hurler, running two bullpen sessions between each start. The extra attention appears to be paying off because Deduno has never maintained a BB/9 rate below four... anywhere, even in the minors. For all the criticism aimed at his failures with Francisco Liriano -- another maddeningly erratic Latin pitcher who is now succeeding elsewhere -- Anderson is really redeeming himself with Deduno.) But, is K/BB ratio the vitally important indicator for Deduno that it is for most other pitchers? His game is based more on inducing weak contact than missing bats, and I've always felt that he can get away with handing out more walks because he's so tough to square up. After all, a free pass only costs one base at a time. Even with a heightened number of base runners, it's tricky for an opposing offense to push guys across the plate without big hits doing the damage. Deduno is holding opposing hitters to a .245 average and a .351 slugging percentage. This dynamic isn't captured well by popular sabermetric measures. The prevailing wisdom behind fielding independent metrics assumes that any pitcher should be expected to allow a BABIP around .300, but Deduno registered a .267 mark last year and is at .272 this year. He appears to have a sustainable skill for limiting damage on balls in play, thanks in large part to his extreme ground ball tendencies (he is the only pitcher in the majors with 60-plus innings and a GB rate above 60 percent, and I'd wager that nobody induces more weakly hit nubbers). Many reasonable observers are still waiting for the other shoe to drop for Deduno, but he has by and large been a very effective starter in the majors over the last two years. Last season his ERA sat at 3.55 before a rough patch in his final three outings shot that mark up above four. This year he owns a 3.18 ERA through 12 turns, and he's pitched into the seventh in all but three starts. There's no guarantee that this will keep up, but I'm through looking for reasons to expect a drop-off. Between his outstanding numbers at Triple-A, his dominance in the World Baseball Classic and his continuing improvement at the major-league level, I'm a believer in Deduno, even if that means moving out my comfort zone analytically. Once you've come around to the idea of Deduno being an ongoing fixture, you'll feel a lot better about the short-term future of this rotation. Despite being 30 years old, Deduno won't even be arbitration eligible until 2015 at the earliest, and he'll remain under team control for several years beyond. Late bloomers can have their advantages. And unlike with R.A. Dickey, it looks like the Twins might have opened the door for this one at the right time. Click here to view the article

In my attempts to determine a plausible best-case scenario for this year's Twins team, I've struggled to come up with real-life examples to use for comparison. On the forum earlier this week, Twins Daily member sam.ekstrom pointed to the 2008 Twins as a potential "doppelganger" for the 2012 squad. I've got to say, I find this to be an encouraging model for a positive outcome if things break reasonably well. Download attachment: blueprint.jpg Now, to be clear, that 2008 team was by no means great. They won 88 games, were a middle-of-the-road club by most statistical measures and came within a game of the playoffs only by virtue of playing in a pretty bad division. But then, coming off a 99-loss season, these current Twins can't very well aspire for true greatness. Instead, they can try to follow the course that turned them from outsiders to contenders four years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Expectations were low for the '08 Twins. They had finished 79-83 in 2007 – their worst mark in eight years – and had watched multiple franchise mainstays depart over the offseason. Yet, they went on to surprise the baseball world by pushing Chicago to a division tiebreaker game, and they didn't do it with outstanding pitching (they finished seventh out of 14 AL teams in ERA) or power hitting (last in the league with 111 homers). Instead, those Twins hit for average, ranking third in the AL at .279, and they were extremely opportunistic (.305/.380/.446 with runners in scoring position). Their pitching wasn't great, but it was good enough. Many point to this year's rotation as a crippling weakness, but take a look at the numbers from that club's starters and tell me that this year's bunch can't at least match them: Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP Scott Baker: 28 GS, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Kevin Slowey: 27 GS, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP Glen Perkins: 26 GS, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP Livan Hernandez: 23 GS, 10-8, 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Francisco Liriano: 14 GS, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP Boof Bonser also made 12 starts and finished the year with an ERA near 6. This group was a beacon of neither durability (only Blackburn threw more than 173 innings) nor dominance (Liriano led all starters with a 7.9 K/9 rate and the Twins' staff as a whole averaged 6.1 whiffs per nine -- nearly identical to last year's 6.0). The 2008 starters were sufficiently effective because they threw strikes and benefited from solid defense. That's a formula that this year's rotation will seek to follow. Holding leads in the late innings is also important, and while the 2012 bullpen won't likely feature a performer as stellar as Joe Nathan, the overall unit should be able to match the effectiveness of an '08 group that ranked sixth in the AL in ERA, seventh in WHIP and 10th in K/9. From an offensive standpoint, this year's team will similarly have to find ways to push runs across without big power numbers. That 2008 group managed to finish third the AL in runs scored despite ranking last in homers, thanks largely to their ability to hit for average. That ought to be a strength this year for a lineup that will feature Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll, among others. Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Danny Valencia will need to chip in some pop and drive in runs, but they've shown the ability to do so in the past. The point of all this is to say that the Twins don't necessarily need Mauer to return to '09 form, or Morneau to go back to hitting 30 home runs, or Liriano to rack up 200 strikeouts. Rather, they can rely on a recipe that's worked for them in the past, which is hitting for a high average, converting on scoring opportunities, throwing strikes, playing strong defense, and hoping that a high-80s win total will be enough to give them a shot in the AL Central. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lirianosulk.jpg Francisco Liriano was tagged with a loss Sunday as he allowed five runs over five innings, handing out four walks while throwing just 47 of 86 pitches for strikes. It qualified as his best start of the season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Through four turns, Liriano sits with an 11.02 ERA, 2.28 WHIP and 12-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 16 2/3 innings. Only 57 percent of his pitches are finding the zone, which is the same rate he finished with in 2011. He was being counted on this year to rebound and lead the rotation, but instead he's been its biggest problem. Given that he's shown no meaningful signs of improvement over these first four starts, the Twins are undoubtedly taking a look at their options. I've been one of Liriano's staunchest defenders, but even I wouldn't fault the team for bumping him to the bullpen until he figures out how to throw strikes. The left-hander seems oddly ambivalent about the situation, considering how much it impacts his livelihood. Pitching his way out of the rotation in the season preceding his first foray into free agency? He stands to cost himself many millions. It's a tough thing for the Twins to have to do, but his abysmal performance is giving them little choice but to consider making a move. This is hardly an ideal situation for the club. Their starting pitching depth is already stretched thin with Scott Baker gone for the year, and while Anthony Swarzak has been relatively effect as a swing man, that's the role he's best suited for and his outing last week against the Yankees was an example of why he shouldn't be starting regularly. Brian Duensing and Matt Maloney, like Swarzak, are pitchers with a history of starting who are better suited for relief roles. You could make a case that Scott Diamond is banging on the door in Triple-A, as he's 4-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 18-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25 1/3 innings over his first four starts in Rochester. Of course, the 25-year-old Diamond was also one of the Twins' early cuts in spring training after pitching quite poorly in big-league stints last year. People shouldn't get overly worked up over four good Triple-A starts from the lefty. He's putting up essentially the same peripherals now as he did last year, when he went 4-14 with a 5.56 ERA for Rochester. He has stranded over 90 percent of base runners up to this point, which is beyond unsustainable. If called up, Diamond won't fool many hitters, but he'll at least throw strikes and might be able to hold his own thanks to a solid grounder rate. A complete turnaround from Liriano might be the only way for the Twins to climb into contention, because they're destined to wallow in mediocrity with a rotation full of soft-tossing contact pitchers, but it's hard to hold out hope for such a reversal from Frankie when he's looking every bit as bad as he did for basically the entire 2011 season. At this point, replacing him with a guy who has "No. 5 starter" written all over him is beginning to look like a palatable option. That's bad news for the Twins, and it's worse news for Liriano's bank account. Click here to view the article

When the Twins signed Jason Marquis to a one-year, $3 million contract back in December, Terry Ryan offered this description: "He's a groundball machine and he throws the ball over the plate." That characterization was only partially accurate. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]While the sinker-balling right-hander has induced grounders at an extreme rate, painting him as a consistent strike-thrower never passed the sniff test. As Aaron Gleeman astutely noted when the Twins signed him, Marquis' career walk rate is identical to that of Francisco Liriano, who is no one's idea of a control artist. Sure enough, the 33-year-old's control problems have been on full display this spring. After an erratic outing today in which he walked two and hit a batter in four-plus innings, Marquis leads the Twins with nine walks (against only five strikeouts) and three wild pitches in 12 2/3 frames, contributing to an ugly 8.53 ERA. When he stumbled in his Twins debut, the hope was that Marquis would rebound rapidly and start to settle in as March progressed. Unfortunately, we haven't seen that. He's routinely falling behind hitters, resulting in multiple walks in every start and tons of hits allowed. Through four turns, Marquis owns a 2.21 WHIP and still hasn't been able to record an out in the fifth inning. He's well behind where he needs to be at this point and the coaching staff has to be growing concerned. With three weeks left to go until Opening Day, he's going to need to work closely with Rick Anderson to get the command issues sorted out. Download attachment: marquis2.jpg Click here to view the article

Eight months after suffering a concussion in a home plate collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, Denard Span still says he has "bad days" in which his head doesn't feel quite right, but he has no way of knowing whether or not those symptoms stem from the incident in Kansas City. Download attachment: span.jpg Span's situation is unique, in that he had dealt with migraines and vertigo back in 2009, long before taking that blow to the head on June 3rd last season. At the time, those issues were linked to an inner-ear condition. His current maladies might be attributable more to that problem than the concussion, but whatever the case, it's concerning that a 27-year-old continues to have – as he puts it – "days where I don't feel my best and have to find a way to fight through." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fighting through has been a buzz word for Span this spring. Clearly, he's a competitor and doesn't want to let this bring him down. But playing through symptoms is not always the best idea, for player or team. We saw that last year when Span went 2-for-35 in a two-week stretch after pushing himself to return, and when Justin Morneau struggled all season before re-triggering concussion symptoms on a diving attempt in the field in August. The Twins are hopeful that Span, who was getting on base at a .367 clip last year prior to the concussion, can combine with Jamey Carroll, who has posted a .368 OBP over the past two seasons in Los Angeles, to become a dynamic force at the top of the lineup, creating plenty of opportunities for Morneau, Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. But if the bad days don't go away, the Twins will need to have a contingency plan in place – preferably someone with the ability to reach base at a solid clip, as they're looking to distance themselves from a 2011 season in which they got a .319 OBP from the leadoff spot and a .289 OBP from the No. 2 spot. This may have factored into the decision to bring Darin Mastroianni into the organization earlier this month. Mastroianni owns a .370 OBP in the minors, though there's plenty of room to doubt whether his on-base skills will translate to the big leagues. Joe Benson is another candidate to fill a spot in the outfield and at the top of the lineup should Span be sidelined. Benson got on base at a .388 clip in New Britain last year, drawing 56 walks in 472 plate appearances, but he looked totally overmatched in a late stint in Minnesota, drawing just three walks against 21 strikeouts in 74 plate appearances. When healthy and doing his thing, Span is an integral cog at the top of the Twins lineup, and his production is awfully tough to replace. When Mauer won the MVP with 96 RBI in 2009, there was no player he drove in more often than Span, who finished that season with career highs in OBP (.392) and runs (97). The success of Mauer and the rest of the lineup's run producers will be largely dependent on the success of the table-setters. If bad days continue to haunt Span this season, someone's going to need to step up and get on base in his stead, otherwise it's going to mean plenty of bad days for the Twins' lineup. Click here to view the article

I can still vividly recall writing this Prospect Rundown late in the 2011 season. The article recapped the campaigns of each of my Top 10 Twins prospects, and the results were... depressing. While the big-league club was wrapping up one of its worst seasons ever, the farm system was in a state of disarray, with the top name fresh off Tommy John surgery and many of the other prominent prospects saddled with poor performance or injury. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] With few exceptions (most notably Miguel Sano's explosive season in Elizabethton), finding glimmers of positivity anywhere within the system around this time was a challenge. It was about the lowest I had ever been on the franchise in my years as a writer. What a difference a couple years can make. Today, Minnesota's system stands out as the finest in the game. Not only does it shine at the top end, where Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were recently ranked by Baseball America as two of the three best prospects in baseball, but the depth of this organization's minor-league talent is pretty incredible. I've been even more struck by this after researching the systems of other teams for our Trade Talk series; when you look through the top 10-20 prospects of other organizations, invariably you find numerous cases where stocks have dropped. That is, of course, the volatile nature of prospects. But that hasn't been true for the Twins this year. Checking in on Twins Daily's preseason Top 10 Prospects, we find that -- from top to bottom -- almost everything is pointing in the right direction. With the club in Minnesota on its way to a third straight 90-plus loss season, the unrivaled success of this group could not be more important. 10. Max Kepler, OF 2013 Stats (A): 81 PA, .288/.358/.521, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB Kepler missed most of the first half with an elbow injury, but since joining the Cedar Rapids Kernels in mid-June he has made up for lost time with a red-hot start. After flashing minimal power in his first two seasons at rookie ball, the athletic German exploded with 31 extra-base hits in 59 games at Elizabethton last year and he has carried that forward with 10 XBH through his first 18 contests at Low-A. 9. Trevor May, RHP 2013 Stats (AA): 95 IP, 3.98 ERA, 93/41 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP May led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year, and has unsurprisingly racked up the whiffs at a similar rate this year. The biggest hurdle for the right-hander is always going to be improving his spotty command and he's made progress in that department. His 3.9 BB/9 rate -- while far from great -- is the lowest of his career, and he's been getting better of late with only nine walks in 37 innings (2.2 BB/9) since the start of June. 8. J.O. Berrios, RHP 2013 Stats (A): 63.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 72/20 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP There are only a handful of teenagers pitching in the Midwest League, and the 19-year-old Berrios stands out from that group with a 10.2 K/9 rate that ranks in the top five overall. He's given up a few more hits than you'd like to see thanks to a .374 BABIP, but the shiny K/BB ratio demonstrates that the kid's filthy stuff is playing well against more advanced hitters. 7. Eddie Rosario, 2B 2013 Stats (A+/AA): 333 PA, .312/.369/.493, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 59 R, 4/13 SB With all the buzz surrounding Miguel Sano, Rosario's midseason promotion to New Britain slipped under the radar to some degree, but he certainly deserves plenty of recognition. He's the third-youngest second baseman to play in the Eastern League this year and is holding his own (.275/.353/.418); he dominated in the Florida State League, where his .903 OPS led his position by nearly 100 points. In an organization that has really struggled to produce middle infielders, Rosario's continued success is hugely encouraging. 6. Kyle Gibson, RHP 2013 Stats (AAA/MLB): 104.1 IP, 3.54 ERA, 86/29 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP Gibson pitched extremely well in Triple-A over the first half before finally getting the call to Minnesota in late June. Since joining the Twins, he has had his ups and downs. So it goes for a rookie getting his first exposure to big-league sluggers. Overall, it's been an extremely positive campaign for the 25-year-old, who has allowed just four home runs in 104 innings while consistently flashing mid-90s velocity. 5. Alex Meyer, RHP 2013 Stats (AA): 61 IP, 3.69 ERA, 73/27 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP Acquired in exchange for Denard Span during the offseason, Meyer has lived up to his "power pitcher" billing by racking up 73 strikeouts in 61 innings at Double-A. His 10.8 K/9 rate ranks second among pitchers in the Eastern League with 60 or more innings. Meyer has also been extremely stingy with the hits, holding the opposition to a .225 average with only three home runs. Unfortunately, Meyer has been sidelined for more than a month due to a shoulder injury, so he's the biggest question mark on this list at the moment. 4. Oswaldo Arcia, OF 2013 Stats (AAA/MLB): 312 PA, .283/.362/.475, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 37 R, 3/4 SB During his brief time in Triple-A Arcia raked, posting a .930 OPS as a 22-year-old with no prior experience at the level. His time there was short because he's been busy building a Rookie of the Year case in the majors, where his powerful swing has provided an unexpected jolt for the Twins lineup. 3. Aaron Hicks, OF 2013 Stats (MLB): 238 PA, .205/.271/.372, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 32 R, 6/8 SB After a breakout season in Double-A last year, Hicks made the jump straight to the majors out of spring training. His first few weeks on the job were as brutal as could be, but the 23-year-old has shown steady progress over the course of the season, which is exactly what you hope to see. Since the beginning of May, he has a .787 OPS with seven homers and 18 total extra-base hits in 41 games. Solid production for a rookie center fielder with strong defensive skills. Download attachment: byron-buxton.jpg 2. Byron Buxton, OF 2013 Stats (A/A+): 370 PA, .341/.422/.543, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 75 R, 33/45 SB What more is there to say at this point? Buxton has firmly established himself as the best prospect in baseball, displaying elite skills across the board while posting monster numbers as a teenager facing more experienced competition. Average, power, discipline, speed, defense... it's all there. Buxton is the total package. 1. Miguel Sano, 3B 2013 Stats (A+/AA): 340 PA, .292/.385/.611, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 64 R, 9/12 SB Not to be outdone, Sano has put up some pretty incredible numbers of his own. He made a mockery of the Florida State League before earning a promotion to Double-A, where he has had some contact issues but is continuing to crush the ball. Sano is the best power-hitting prospect in the minors, and he's backing that up with a full-season home run pace approaching 40. Click here to view the article

Signed in the same year and from the same Dominican academy as Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco has largely been overshadowed ever since starting his pro career. Sano received a franchise-record $3.5 million signing bonus and has had a documentary crew exhaustively following his rise to the majors. Polanco signed for "only" $750,000 and didn't experience the type of immediate success that his uber-talented fellow countryman did. But, with back-to-back stand-out seasons under his belt, Polanco is quickly beginning to command attention in a system where competition for it is fierce. Download attachment: top-prospects-08-jorge-polanco.jpg An Inauspicious Start When Polanco came to the United States, he carried with him a sterling defensive reputation. Baseball America's prospect guru John Manuel ranked him as the best defensive infielder in Minnesota's system in January of 2010, before he had played a single game stateside. Polanco's aptitude with the glove was never in question, but his bat was a point of uncertainty. The Twins acquired him as an undersized 16-year-old without much punch; in his first year, while splitting time between the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League, he managed only eight extra-base hits (one homer) in 52 games, slugging .294. Spending his second year in the GCL, Polanco once again managed only one home run and finished with a .668 OPS. But at season's end he had only been 18 for about a month. The word "kid" is thrown around too often when referring to young baseball players and prospects, but that's what he was. And unlike Sano, who has been an imposing figure since he was about 12, Polanco looked it. The Power Arrives Here's the thing about kids: they grow. Polanco isn't going to be confused with Sano any time soon, but he has added bulk since first joining the organization, and it shows in his numbers. In his first two seasons, Polanco slugged .322. In 2012, he went to Elizabethton and slugged .514, racking up 22 extra-base hits in 51 games. In 2013, he made the move to full-season ball and enjoyed another stellar campaign at Cedar Rapids. Among qualifying second basemen in the Midwest League, Polanco was the youngest, but he ranked second in batting average (.308) and second in OPS (.813). Polanco's offensive transformation has been truly remarkable. Four years ago he could barely hit the ball out of the infield; last year he tallied 32 doubles and 10 triples as a 19-year-old in Single-A, ranking among the top 10 in the MWL in both runs scored and RBI. A switch-hitter who's always been known for good plate discipline and very low strikeout rates, Polanco is becoming a truly potent threat at the plate now that he's driving the ball more frequently. Where Does He Fit? That's a good question. Polanco has split time between shortstop and second base at every level, but the majority of his recent time has come on the right side and -- considering his lack of size and arm strength -- there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors. At second, his skills are highly lauded. But of course the Twins currently have an uncharacteristic stock of talent at that position. With Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario both in front of him, Polanco would appear to have plenty of time to work his way through the system. When Will He Arrive? Despite starting their careers at the same time, and being just months apart in age, Sano and Polanco have followed very different paths. The former defies convention as an elite prospect and perhaps one of the greatest talents the Dominican Republic has produced. The latter is on a far more traditional progression, meaning that while Sano may be threatening for a big-league spot early this season, Polanco's ETA is much farther down the line. Ascending one level per year would place him in the majors around 2017. Unless he flat-out dominates in Ft. Myers and/or New Britain, I think it's unlikely we'd see that timetable accelerated much. But if he does come out raking at High-A this spring, he may join Rosario as a fast-tracked second base prospect who can drive the ball. That would put the Twins in an interesting position in a couple years, especially if Dozier doesn't falter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: glen-perkins.jpg The past two seasons have been filled with disappointment and negative outcomes, but one of the few resoundingly encouraging developments has been the emergence of Glen Perkins at the back end of the bullpen. After fizzling as a starter, Perkins made a supremely successful transition to relief duty and, after signing a contract extension last year, he's in position to provide the Twins with stability at the closer spot for years to come, as long as he can stay healthy. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins value continuity in the closer role as much as any team in baseball, as evidenced by the hefty four-year extension they handed Joe Nathan back in 2008 and the considerable resources they invested into acquiring and retaining Matt Capps.Perkins has given us every reason to believe he can be relied upon to close out games for the foreseeable future, allowing the Twins to concentrate on building a bullpen around him and his reasonable contract. Early in the offseason, Terry Ryan cited the bullpen as his second-highest priority behind the rotation. In a way that makes sense, since being able to take a lead means nothing if you can't hold it, but there is clearly a lot less work to be done when it comes to the relief corps. Perkins is entrenched at closer and Jared Burton, who also inked an extension following a sensational Minnesota debut, is locked in as his top setup man. Beyond those two, you've got Brian Duensing, who has established himself as one of the league's better situational left-handed specialists. There's also Anthony Swarzak, a solid fit as the team's long reliever who is out of options and nearly assured a place on the roster. That's four slots in the bullpen that are as good as spoken for, barring injuries in spring training. So even if the Twins characteristically go with a 12-man pitching staff out of the gates, they'll have only three spots left to fill. With a number of candidates vying for jobs, competition figures to be brisk. The picture is already a bit crowded, so it seems rather unlikely that Ryan will be seeking out anymore external help, even though contracts like the one Jason Frasor signed last week with the Rangers suggest that reasonable deals can be had. Here are some of the internal candidates with defensible cases for claiming one of the remaining gigs: Casey Fien, RHP: Fien was something of a journeyman when the Twins acquired him on a minor-league deal last year, but he quietly posted excellent numbers in the second half after an early July call-up. The 29-year-old allowed runs in only two of his first 21 appearances as a Twin and finished with a 2.06 ERA and 32-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35 innings. He'll have a hard time repeating that performance but it'd be tough to deprive him of a spot based on merit. Alex Burnett, RHP: Like Fien, Burnett finished with a good ERA last year (3.52) but his overall production was far less impressive, as it included an ugly 36-to-26 K/BB ratio and 1.35 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings. Oddly, despite a mid-90s fastball and a sharp slider, Burnett's ability to strike out major-league hitters has waned over time, and last year his K-rate ranked as the second-worst among qualifying MLB relievers (ahead of only Jeff Gray). If he maintains those peripherals he's a poor bet for continued success, but considering his heavy usage and adequate results last year, it's hard to see him being left out. Rich Harden, RHP: The Twins haven't stated their intentions with Harden, who has mostly been a starter over the course of his career, but it stands to reason that they could give him a shot in the bullpen, where his outstanding raw stuff could make an impact and his workload could be better managed. If it works out, Harden could be a great asset in the late innings. Ryan Pressly, RHP: Selected from Boston in the Rule 5 draft, Pressly had success after converting from starter to reliever last year and his high-velocity stuff clearly caught the Twins' attention. He's nowhere near ready for the majors based on his track record, but if the Twins roster him they'll either have to send him back to the Red Sox or work out a trade. Tyler Robertson, LHP: He struggled with walks and homers in his first taste of the majors last year, but Robertson also showed some positive signs, averaging over a strikeout per inning and shutting down lefties. If the Twins desire a secondary lefty specialist in the bullpen behind Duensing (since Perkins doesn't really count) Robertson is a logical choice. Anthony Slama, RHP: The Twins seemingly have very little interest in giving him a chance, but Slama's ridiculous numbers in Triple-A last year make him a necessary inclusion on this list. It sure would be nice to see what he could do against major-league hitters with an extended chance. Tim Wood, RHP: Wood was acquired on a minor-league deal earlier this winter after he proved very effective as the closer for Pittsburgh's Triple-A affiliate last year. He's 29 and his overall career numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he'll be in the mix by virtue of having a 40-man roster spot. The same goes for Josh Roenicke, a rubber-armed right-hander brought over from the Colorado organization. Who would you like to see rounding out the last two bullpen spots? Who else would you like to see in the mix? Click here to view the article

Over the past two weeks, I've profiled five different high-end starting pitchers that the Twins may be inclined to pursue on the free agent market. Of course, those who have followed this organization could be excused for expressing skepticism over the likelihood of one of these big names actually landing in Minnesota, even with signals that the club plans to be "uber-aggressive" in its search for arms. Simply put, Terry Ryan has never acquired an expensive big-name pitcher through free agency. Ever. When it comes to signing highly sought pitchers in a competitive market, the Twins don't have much of an advantage.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] They're unlikely to offer an overwhelming sum of money and they certainly can't tout an immediately competitive environment. But one area where they may have an edge on opponents is the realm of risk/reward arms, with major question marks but significant upside. Think Rich Harden. Now, obviously last year's Harden signing was an extreme long shot that paid no dividends, but the underlying reasoning was sound. It was a no-risk move that added a talented arm to the mix at virtually no cost, and for his part, Harden was likely compelled to come here because of the wide-open opportunity in the rotation. The Twins will face a similar scenario this offseason. Ryan has stated that only Kevin Correia and (if healthy) Sam Deduno are assured spots in the 2014 starting corps, with the remaining group of contenders looking even weaker than it did at this time a year ago. Any pitchers with depressed value looking to reestablish themselves with an incentive-laden one-year MLB contract or a minor-league deal could see Minnesota as an attractive destination. So, which pitchers in this year's free agent crop fall into that category? Let's take a look at some: Edinson Volquez, RHP, Age 30 In 2008, the year after the Reds acquired him in exchange for Josh Hamilton, Volquez looked like quite the get. At age 24, the right-hander went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, earning an All-Star appearance and finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Unfortunately, it's pretty much been all downhill for the Dominican hurler ever since. While he's flashed glimpses of potential, Volquez's career has largely been marred by injuries and erratic performance. He hasn't posted an above-average ERA since that rookie campaign. In 2012 he led the league in walks issued. In 2013 he led the league in earned runs allowed, despite totaling only 170 innings. Volquez was released by the Padres in mid-August with a 6.01 ERA. He latched on with the Dodgers and pitched reasonably well in the final month (4.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 28 innings) but nonetheless it seems unlikely that any contending team will want to guarantee him anything. The Twins, meanwhile, could afford to gamble on his mid-90s fastball and hope that their pitching staff can coax more strikes. Roy Halladay, RHP, Age 36 Halladay's drop-off has been rather precipitous. Just two years ago he was continuing his reign as the most effective workhorse in the game, winning 19 games with a 2.35 ERA over 233 innings to finish second in the Cy Young voting. In nine seasons from 2003 to 2011, Halladay led his league in complete games seven times. Doc's right arm is a modern marvel, but it's looking like the extremely taxing workload has finally caught up with him in his mid-30s. In 2012 he posted an uncharacteristically mediocre 4.49 ERA while being limited to 156 innings, his lowest total since 2005. His 2013 season was almost completely wiped out by shoulder problems, as he managed to get through just 62 innings with a brutal 6.82 ERA while his average fastball velocity dropped to 88 MPH. Halladay was shut down in September due to dead arm and it sure does look like he's completely drained at this point, but this is a likely Hall of Famer who is young enough yet that a rebound can't be ruled out. Johan Santana, LHP, Age 34 Download attachment: santanamets.jpg This is the guy that everyone wants to talk about. The idea of a Twins/Santana reunion is highly appealing to those who wish to relive the glory days, when Minnesota ruled over the AL Central in large part thanks to their premier ace and his unhittable changeup. Those glory days are a distant memory at this point, however, for both Santana and the Twins. While the club has futilely searched for a successor at the top of the rotation, the lefty has seen his career unravel along with his left shoulder. Santana has pitched only 117 innings over the past three years, with all of those coming in 2012 when he went 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA. In September of 2010 he underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder, and he was forced to undergo the same surgery again in April of this year after re-tearing the shoulder capsule. His prognosis at this point is not good, but the two-time Cy Young winner is still only 34 and at least looked decent after returning from his first surgery, putting up a 4.02 xFIP and averaging 8.5K/9 (his highest number since leaving the Twins) in 2012. He even threw a no-hitter. It would be a pretty cool story if he was able to revive his career back in MN. Shaun Marcum, RHP, Age 31 Despite his outstanding recent performance, including three straight seasons with a below average ERA, Marcum drew little interest on the free agent market last year due to health concerns, and wound up settling for a one-year deal worth $4 million. It turned out that the league-wide caution regarding Marcum was well warranted, as the righty ended up making just 14 appearances (12 starts) and posting a 5.29 ERA before his season ended in July due to thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery and will likely be seeking a minor-league deal this offseason. His health is an even greater point of an uncertainty than it was last year, but hopefully his procedure can clear up the arm problems that have bothered him in back-to-back seasons. He still has his relative youth and a steady track record to fall back on. Colby Lewis, RHP, Age 34 Lewis missed the entire 2013 season due to surgeries on his elbow and hip, but had established himself as a quality pitcher prior to the health woes. In his three seasons with the Rangers following a return from Japan in 2010, he registered a 3.93 ERA along with a 458/135 K/BB ratio in 506 innings. As a guy who has demonstrated the ability to throw strikes, miss bats and limit hits -- with his issues largely stemming from a high home run rate in Arlington -- Lewis looks like a very strong fit for Target Field and the Twins. Gavin Floyd, RHP, Age 30 Another example of a homer-prone hurler who may benefit from Target Field's spacious confines, Floyd has been a steadily solid yet unspectacular pitcher in Chicago for many years. From 2008 through 2012, he never posted an ERA lower than 3.84 nor one higher than 4.37. He'd be an appealing target for the Twins if not for his enormous health concerns, which overshadow anyone else on this list. Floyd underwent two surgeries on his right elbow in May of this year, repairing both his UCL and flexor muscle. The recovery timeline for such a procedure is 14-19 months, meaning it will be tough to count on the righty to provide anything in 2014. Click here to view the article

While center field is still in flux, it is fairly clear at this point how the Twins envision their starting lineup coming together at the start of the season. Chris Parmelee will be taking over for Ben Revere in right, and Ron Gardenhire has made no secret of the fact that he'd like to see Brian Dozier and Pedro Florimon take the reigns in the middle infield. All other positions will be occupied by players reprising their roles from 2012. There is less certainty when it comes to the composition of the bench. When I projected the Opening Day roster in my spring training preview, I guessed that the Twins would follow the typical Gardy formula: short bench (resulting from a seven-man bullpen) populated by a third catcher and a bunch of defensive specialists who can pinch-run. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The names I listed were Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll, Eduardo Escobar and Darin Mastroianni. It's still plenty plausible that the Twins could enter the season with that very group comprising their bench but a few recent comments and developments have added some interesting twists to this storyline. First, there's Jim Thome. His name has been buzzing around Twins Territory recently, and while there initially appeared to be little steam behind the rumors, it sounds more and more like Gardenhire would really like for it to happen. Download attachment: thomeswing.jpg And why wouldn't he? The problem with the Twins' current bench candidates is that none of them are threats with the bat, which leaves the manager in a tough position in late-game situations when guys like Florimon, Dozier or Butera are due up. Thome is extremely limited at this point in his career but he'll always be a weapon as a pinch-hitter and his presence would be a treat for teammates and fans. The challenge is creating space on the bench, but that could potentially be accomplished by removing Butera from the equation. Would the Twins do such a thing? It has seemed unlikely, given that they re-upped him for $700,000 and Gardy has always enjoyed the comfort of having a third backstop on the roster, but recent reports that Escobar -- who was an emergency third catcher with the White Sox last year -- is getting in some work behind the plate suggest that the Twins may be trying to mitigate that need. If the Twins want to pass on Thome and look elsewhere for a bit of pop on the bench, there are several other intriguing candidates in camp, including Chris Collabello -- one of the feel good stories of this spring. Joe Benson could be a sleeper as well. With few starting jobs up in the air on offense, these open bench spots will provide some of the most compelling drama for fans craving position battles here in March. Personally, I hope the Twins make an effort to get creative and stray away from their norm. Why not? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gardenhire.jpg These are trying times if you're the coach of a local professional sports team. Vikings head coach Leslie Frasier got the axe this week following a season that saw his team lose 10 games. Mike Yeo is on the hot seat with the Wild under-performing. And Rick Adelman might just give up with the number of tribulations that seem to endlessly plague the Timberwolves. Ron Gardenhire has endured more losing than any local coach over the past three years, [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]and as his most recent disappointing season came to a close there was some thought he might also be on his way out. Instead, the Twins signed their longtime manager to a two-year extension at the end of September. In re-upping with Gardenhire, the Twins acknowledged that the ugly results over the past few seasons can't be strongly tied to the manager's performance. With a transitional roster that has been riddled with injuries and hasn't been supplemented by much impact talent, Gardy has faced difficult circumstances that would have made it nearly impossible for any skipper to find success. Known as one of the most loyal organizations in baseball (and perhaps in sports as a whole), the Twins elected not to make Gardenhire the scapegoat for a three-year stretch of misery that has been driven by plenty of contributors. It's clear the front office still likes Gardenhire and puts more stock in his first decade at the helm -- which featured six division championships -- than his most recent run. But the club's patience can't, and won't, last forever. The 2014 season figures to be a hugely important one for the game's second-longest tenured manager. With major money being pumped into free agency during the offseason, and with a handful of key prospects expected to join the fold, another year with no progress in the win column would likely spell the end for Gardenhire. I've always been a believer that the role of a manager in a baseball team's success is generally exaggerated, but I think Gardenhire is good at what he does for the most part. He is liked by his players, he's an entertaining quote and he's shown some willingness to adapt his generally old-school tactical approach (Joe Mauer logging more than 400 plate appearances as the No. 2 hitter this year is a fine example). If Gardy can continue to do those things and the Twins finally begin to pull themselves out of this lingering pit of despair, he figures to stick around for a while yet. But by no means does his new contract take him off the hot seat. #13 – Twins in the WBC #12 – Drew Butera Traded to Dodgers #11 – Twins Sign Kubel, Trade Doumit #10 - Brian Dozier Breaks Through #9 - Kyle Gibson Promoted #8 - Aaron Hicks' Lost Year #7 – Twins Draft Kohl Stewart #6 – Justin Morneau Traded to Pirates #5 – Twins Dismal Starting Pitching #4 – Buxton and Sano Dominate Minors #3 – Twins Spend on Free Agents #2 – Joe Mauer Moves to First Base Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gibson.jpg Given the vast number of tribulations that have surrounded seemingly every injury affecting a player on the Twins' roster over the past couple years, folks have understandably placed low expectations on Kyle Gibson's rehab process. The young hurler is a member of the organization's sizable faction of Tommy John victims over the past several years, and with all the setbacks that we've grown accustomed to seeing, fans across Twins Territory have conditioned themselves to scale back excitement over his potential impact next season. Gibson is making it increasingly difficult to do so. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The former first-round draft pick, ranked by Baseball America as the game's 34th-best prospect before a 2011 season that saw him tear his UCL, turned in another sterling performance in the Arizona Fall League on Tuesday, allowing just one run on six hits over five innings while striking out eight and walking none. In two starts for the Peoria Javelinas, the right-hander is now 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 16-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 10 innings. Those are fantastic numbers in a traditionally hitter-friendly league. Combining his AFL performance with his three-level minor-league rehab stint that stretched from July to September this season, Gibson has tallied 49 strikeouts and six walks in 38 1/3 innings since returning to pitching competitively about nine months after surgery. Perhaps even more encouraging than the numbers are the reports on Gibson's fastball velocity, which was purportedly registering up to 93 MPH in his latest start. If true, that's a notch above what he was typically reaching before surgery, and a sign that his gaudy strikeout totals may not be a total mirage. Now, to be clear, we're talking about a small sample against minor-league hitters, many of whom aren't even Triple-A caliber. Still, it's tough not to get excited about this major ray of positivity in what's largely been a dark and gloomy starting pitching saga. Even if we're telling ourselves not to. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaronhicks.jpg After the Twins parted with franchise mainstay Torii Hunter back in 2007, they needed to make a decision about who would take his place in the middle of the outfield. Finding a veteran placeholder was an option, but instead they ultimately decided to go straight to Hunter's heir apparent: a raw but tremendously athletic kid acquired in the Johan Santana trade. Carlos Gomez was clearly rough around the edges when he assumed the important roles of center fielder and leadoff hitter in 2008. At the time, he had played only 94 games above Double-A, including a brief stint in Triple-A and an overmatched MLB debut. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Yet, the Twins were seemingly eager to get an early look at their future, and to give fans a glimpse as well. Gomez was the kind of special talent that could captivate folks at the ballpark and soften the blow of losing a player as popular as Hunter. He was exciting. Gomez never realized his potential in Minnesota, but midway through that '08 campaign, it was another young player who came up and made a big rookie splash. Denard Span would supplant Gomez as leadoff hitter by the end of the year, and as full-time center fielder a year later. Span held those designations up until a couple weeks ago when the Twins traded him for prospect Alex Meyer. Span's apparent predecessor, Ben Revere, was surprisingly moved the next week, putting the Twins in a similar position to 2008. Center field is now wide open, and the club has a choice of either filling it with a stopgap (Darin Mastroianni? Free agent?) or transitioning directly to the future with Aaron Hicks. Hicks hasn't played above the Double-A level, where had a breakout campaign in 2012, but this organization has shown a willingness to push its preferred prospects right into the majors with little or no seasoning in Triple-A if there's an opening. We've seen it recently with the likes of Ben Revere, Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier. Hicks is a year older than Gomez was when he took the reigns in center, and has a more well rounded skill set. Whereas Gomez had shown poor plate discipline throughout the minors, Hicks has consistently excelled in that department with a career .379 on-base percentage, including .384 last year in his first turn at Double-A. Renowned for his above-average range and outstanding throwing arm, Hicks is ready to handle center field defensively in the majors. Whether the Twins will be willing to give him a chance depends on where they feel his offensive game is at, but if they're looking for someone that they can plug into the top of the lineup with Span and Revere gone, Hicks' on-base skills alone seem worthy of a gamble. Certainly his overall offensive game has to be viewed as more polished than Gomez's when he was given the nod. This organization is obviously very high on Hicks. Ryan wouldn't have been willing to deal both Span and Revere if that weren't the case. Do they believe Hicks is ready now? The more I read, and the more I hear, the more I believe they do. Barring a meltdown in spring training, I think the former first-round pick is the front-runner for the center field job. And fans should be very excited about that indeed. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: photo 2.jpg The Twins made the short trip up to Port Charlotte Thursday night to take on the Rays. Scott Diamond, making his case for the fifth spot in the rotation, faced the same team that effectively knocked Vance Worley out of the running two nights earlier. The Twins fell 5-4, their third loss in three tries since I arrived in Florida on Monday. There were a few interesting tidbits to be gleaned from the contest so let's dive in. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * Diamond looked quite good through the first four innings. He was attacking the lower part of the zone and inducing tons of ground balls -- exactly what the Twins are looking for from him. Then, in the fifth, he lost his command, walking three batters to load the bases before Ron Gardenhire removed him with one out. Brian Duensing entered in relief and allowed all three runs to score, inflating Diamond's spring ERA to 5.79. Was stamina the issue? That would be troubling. Between Diamond, Worley, Samuel Deduno and Kyle Gibson, only Gibson has completed five innings in a spring start. We're 10 days away from the season opener. Download attachment: pondview.jpg * Tropicana Field, the Rays' regular-season home, is widely viewed as one of the worst stadiums in the majors, but I found no reason to complain about their spring training venue. Charlotte Sports Park is a small but charming facility, offering intimate views from all around the field. Following the walkway beyond the outfield walls, you can look over the railing on one side for a close view of the bullpens, and on the other side to find a nice scenic pond. The park also hosts the organization's High-A affiliate and is less than an hour and a half away from Tampa. Pretty cool setup for Rays fans. * The Twins offense looked stagnant again on Thursday, failing to score for the first seven innings before finally breaking out with a few RBI singles against Jake Odorizzi in the eighth and ninth. It was the third straight day we've seen the Minnesota lineup struggle to put anything together. Gardenhire seems exasperated. Although the ride to Port Charlotte isn't a long one (certainly compared to Jupiter) it's rare to see a manager take so many projected regulars on a bus trip. He's playing around with his lineup and in this game he tried out Kurt Suzuki in the No. 2 spot. That's an uninspired choice (Suzuki has a .282 OBP over the last two years) but it's not like Gardy has a lot of options at this point. * One bright spot in the game offensively was Aaron Hicks, who went 4-for-4. In his first at-bat he cranked a liner over Desmond Jennings' head in center and would have had a double if he hadn't slipped rounding first. In his next at-bat he got his double, sending a one-hopper over the wall down the left field line. Both knocks came from the right side, where his swing has always looked quite a bit better. He did add two more singles from the left side. Hicks is now hitting .375 this spring, so based on performance he's blowing away Alex Presley (.161). Of course, Hicks also hit .370 last spring. One approach that Gardenhire might consider in center, early on, is a timeshare of sorts. Give Hicks all the starts against lefties while getting Presley into the lineup frequently versus righties, against whom he's much stronger. As the season progresses, and Hicks (hopefully) hits and gains confidence, transition him more and more into a full-time role. Click here to view the article

* The Marlins announced this week that they've demoted Kevin Slowey to the bullpen to make room in their rotation for Nathan Eovaldi. Twins fans will recall how splendidly the last attempt to convert Slowey to a reliever turned out. On some level, unless you're one of the many local scribes who openly despises him, you've got to feel for Slowey. He has actually been pitching reasonably well this year; at least, as well as could be expected of him. He's had a few clunkers, especially lately, but his 4.10 ERA is respectable and his 64-to-14 K/BB ratio in 79 innings is rather impressive. Even with a 5.40 ERA over his last four starts, he has still managed 27 strikeouts with only two walks during that span. That his peripherals have remained so strong seems to suggest this stretch is more a bump in the road than an unraveling for the right-hander. Yet he can't even stick in the starting five for the worst team in baseball. He must really be an obnoxious dude, or something. Interestingly, the manager who demoted him this time is Mike Redmond, who caught Slowey for three years in Minnesota. If not for the bad blood, Slowey would be exactly the kind of guy the Twins should be targeting in trades as next month's deadline approaches. He's young enough to have upside, he's (arguably) undervalued and he wouldn't cost a whole lot to bring in. But of course, given the history there, the entire notion in this instance is laughable. * The case of Kyle Gibson is growing more and more peculiar. He continues to fire great innings in the International League, where he has posted a strong 3.26 ERA . For all the talk about a lack of "consistency," Gibson has earned a quality start in five of his last six outings, and seven of his last 10. He has completed six-plus innings in five straight outings. He is holding opponents to a .233 average and .297 slugging percentage. Download attachment: gibson.jpg That's dominant. Gibson is more than deserving of the big-league promotion he has been yearning for since he came so close two years ago, before all of this Tommy John business unfolded. He is proving, again and again, that he is fully recovered, and that he is beyond a shadow of doubt one of the five best pitchers in this organization. And yet, he's been surpassed for rotation spots by Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, P.J. Walters and Samuel Deduno. And now we're hearing rhetoric about how there's no room, because who could you possibly remove from this unstoppable group? Look, I understand that the starters have been performing better of late, but give me a break. Astonishingly, we're even receiving hints that 27-year-old journeyman Andrew Albers, who prior to this year was not a prospect, might be at the front of the line in Rochester. Possibly Gibson still has some things to learn and work on, but he has earned the chance to do so at the major-league level. It's hard to see an argument that his preparedness for next year wouldn't profit from some experience against MLB hitters and the opportunity to work with Rick Anderson. Instead, for whatever reason, the Twins appear content to let Gibson use up his limited innings facing inferior minor-leaguers. * While it's patently absurd to proclaim at this point that the Twins are "getting fleeced" certainly the returns on their big offseason trades haven't been especially favorable thus far. Vance Worley pitched horribly for two months before being bumped to Triple-A, where he's getting knocked around and averaging a pitiful 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Alex Meyer battled command issues before landing on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. But Trevor May, the third pitcher yielded in the center fielder swaps, has been healthy and took another big step forward Tuesday night in New Britain. Facing the Erie SeaWolves, May pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings, allowing just four hits while striking out nine. The most encouraging sign: he threw 70 of 100 pitches for strikes and issued only one walk. That marks only the second time in 14 starts this year that May has not handed out multiple walks. Control has been the enduring hurdle for this talented 23-year-old, whose swing-and-miss stuff has helped him rack up 714 strikeouts in 595 minor-league innings. He entered last night's start with a 4.7 BB/9 rate that was identical to last year's disappointing figure, but if he can make even moderate ongoing improvements with his consistency and command, he could end up being the prize of this past winter's haul. As things stand, May holds a 3.56 ERA and with his recent run of success (1.74 ERA and 25/6 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings over his past three starts) he might be establishing himself as a candidate for a midseason promotion. Click here to view the article

After watching my hometown get blanketed with several inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday, I finally said, "Screw it, I need to get out of here." So I hopped on a plane and flew to Florida. OK, it wasn't quite that spontaneous, but I am down here in Ft. Myers, and making several trips to the ballpark this week, so I figured I would share some of my observations. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]On Wednesday, I had the chance to take in the tilt between the Twins and Puerto Rico's World Baseball Classic squad at Hammond Stadium, which ended in an 8-7 loss. Here are a few notes I thought I'd pass along: Download attachment: twinsgame3-6.jpg * If you've been following this site or my writing, you may be aware that I'm a huge fan of Twins prospect Aaron Hicks. So naturally, he was one of the players I was most excited to see down here. Hicks was in the starting lineup on Wednesday, batting leadoff, and he did not disappoint. In his first at-bat, he took a couple pitches from Puerto Rico starter Giancarlo Alvarado beforDownload attachment: hicksspring.jpg e drilling one over the right field fence for his second home run of the spring. He walked and singled in his next two plate appearances, finishing 2-for-2 on the day, and is now batting .375 in Grapefruit League action. Hicks is doing everything he needs to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster, but as Star Tribune beat writer Phil Miller pointed out when I was chatting with him outside the batting cages, rookies who are competing for a big-league job have a tendency to tighten up as Opening Day approaches. We'll have to see whether the Twins Daily No. 3 prospect can keep it up over the next few weeks. * Unfortunately, Hicks was the only player in the Twins lineup on this particular day who has a chance to actually make the starting lineup. You think Ron Gardenhire's getaway day lineups are bad? For this exhibition match-up, his No. 3 hitter was Mark Sobolewski and his cleanup man was Jeff Clement. Consequentially, there isn't too much to report about the performance of the offense, although they did manage to scrape together seven runs thanks in large part to bouts of wildness from the Puerto Rico pitching staff. * Beyond Hicks, two other players who appeared on our Top 10 prospects list were in action for the opposing team Wednesday. Eddie Rosario didn't start, but he replaced Irving Falu at second base early in the game. Right-hander J.O. Berrios came on in relief and pitched the third inning. Rosario didn't have a great game offensively. He flied out to the outfield twice, then singled against Alex Burnett in his third at-bat but was quickly picked off at first base. The 20-year-old did convert on his defensive chances, and turned a nice double play. Berrios looked great. His fastball clocked in the low 90s but showed plenty of life. He threw strikes and worked around a Hicks single to complete a shutout frame. He may be the most impressive pitcher on Puerto Rico's staff, and he's 18. * Download attachment: worleyset.jpg Vance Worley was the Twins starter. He didn't look especially sharp in the first inning, and it probably didn't help that he had to face a lineup featuring Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rios and Yadier Molina among its first five hitters. Fortunately, Worley settled in and eventually lasted into the fourth before reaching his pitch limit. He relied on a low-90s fastball and mixed in an effective slider, rarely missing bats but jamming several hitters. The right-hander is one of the few projected members of the Twins rotation with whom I have a good idea of what to expect. He's not going to blow people away but he has solid stuff and will throw strikes. As long as he can stay healthy, he'll be a quality mid-rotation arm. * Reporters in Ft. Myers had been talking about the struggles of the Twins bullpen early on, and that trend continued Wednesday. Jared Burton hit the first batter he faced with a pitch and then gave up a long home run to something called Pedro Valdes. Burnett looked terrible, yielding five hits and two walks while recording just four outs. In fact, the only Twins reliever who had a remotely effective outing was Anthony Slama. Go figure. * The Twins have a pair of split-squad games scheduled for Thursday, and I'll be in attendance for the match-up at Hammond against the Red Sox. Kevin Correia is slated to start, and several legitimate major-leaguers figure to be in the lineup this time, so I'm sure I'll have plenty more notes to share afterwards. Stay tuned. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sano.jpg We’ve reached that time of year, just before camps in Florida and Arizona officially get underway, where many publications release their annual top prospect lists. Since he was recently in town for TwinsFest and his name has appeared near the top of many of these lists, Miguel Sano has been buzzing in local baseball circles. La Velle E. Neal III recently remarked with some astonishment about Sano’s size when he saw him, noting that the 19-year-old (!) will be listed at 6’4” and 235-240 lbs this year. Naturally, this leads back to questions about the top prospect’s chances of sticking at third base, where men of that stature are somewhat uncommon. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the height and weight measurements for third basemen across the majors last season (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com): [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] NYY: Alex Rodriguez 6'3" 225 lbs BAL: Wilson Betemit 6'2" 220 lbs TB: Evan Longoria 6'2" 210 lbs TOR: Brett Lawrie 6'0" 215 lbs BOS: Will Middlebrooks 6'4" 225 lbs DET: Miguel Cabrera 6'4" 240 lbs CWS: Kevin Youkilis 6'1" 220 lbs KC: Mike Moustakas 6'0" 215 lbs CLE: Jack Hannahan 6'2" 210 lbs MIN: Trevor Plouffe 6'2" 205 lbs OAK: Brandon Inge 5'11" 190 lbs TEX: Adrian Beltre 5'11" 220 lbs LAA: Alberto Callaspo 5'9" 200 lbs SEA: Kyle Seager 6'0" 195 lbs WAS: Ryan Zimmerman 6'3" 230 lbs ATL: Chipper Jones 6'4" 210 lbs PHI: Placido Polanco 5'10" 190 lbs NYM: David Wright 6'0" 210 lbs MIA: Hanley Ramirez 6'2" 230 lbs CIN: Scott Rolen 6'4" 245 lbs STL: David Freese 6'2" 220 lbs MIL: Aramis Ramirez 6'1" 205 lbs PIT: Pedro Alvarez 6'3" 235 lbs CHC: Luis Valbuena; 5'10" 195 lbs HOU: Chris Johnson 6'3" 220 lbs SF: Pablo Sandoval 5'11" 240 lbs LAD: Luis Cruz 6'2" 220 lbs ARI: Ryan Roberts 5'11" 185 lbs SD: Chase Headley 6'2" 200 lbs COL: Chris Nelson 5'11" 205 lbs As you can see, only two regulars at the hot corner – Miguel Cabrera and Scott Rolen – were in the same physical class as Sano, who as a teenager might not even be done growing yet. Cabrera was one of the worst defenders in the league at the position, although it bears noting that the aging Rolen was considered a stellar fielder in his prime, so his size wasn’t necessarily an inhibitor. Given that Sano is already bigger than almost any third baseman in the majors, at age 19, and has demonstrated shoddy glovework thus far in his pro career, the odds seem heavily stacked against him remaining at his current position, especially with an organization that values steady defense more than most. A switch to first base or an outfield corner wouldn’t preclude him from becoming a star caliber player, but it will ding his value to some degree. One way or another, this much is clear: Unlike Brian Dozier, Sano really is the next big thing. Literally. Click here to view the article

On Thursday, the Twins and Royals kicked off a four-game series at Target Field. The two teams are nearly even in the standings, although the ways they've reached their present records have been drastically different. Kansas City owns the American League's lowest team ERA by a sizable margin, thanks in large part to the additions of James Shields and Ervin Santana, who have both been fantastic. Meanwhile, Minnesota's staff has been among the league's worst. So, with all their success on the mound, what is preventing the Royals from more fervently challenging the Tigers in the Central?Download attachment: hosmer.jpg The culprit, to a large extent, is an offense that has proven shockingly incapable of hitting for power. With the season's halfway point approaching, KC has tallied only 43 home runs, pacing them to become the first AL team to fall short of triple-digits in a season since the strike-shortened 1994 campaign. This dearth of dingers can be traced to two young players in the line-up from whom the Royals expected heavy contributions. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas simply aren't getting the job done, and the duo represents a cautionary tale that Twins fans ought not ignore. Prior to the 2011 season, Hosmer and Moustakas were ranked by Baseball America as the No. 8 and 9 prospects in baseball. Having combined for 56 home runs in the minors in 2010, the pair profiled as two of baseball's best up-and-coming power bats. Yet, while there have certainly been glimpses of greatness -- Hosmer launched 19 homers and finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2011, while Moustakas went deep 20 times at age 23 last year -- the overall results have been mixed at best, and this year both have been key figures in the struggles of the Royals offense. Although each player has been healthy enough to appear in the majority of Kansas City's games, both have hit only four homers. Moustakas sits with a brutal hitting line of .210/.269/.308; Hosmer's .267/.321/.375 line looks far better in contrast, but is obviously well short of expectations. Neither player is yet 25 years old so it's far too soon to brandish the "bust" label, but their tribulations serve as a reminder that no prospect -- no matter how highly regarded -- is fail-safe, and sometimes the transition to a successful big-league career can take time, if it happens at all. Which brings us to the dynamic duo currently tearing up Minnesota's farm system. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton were ranked by BA before this season as the ninth and 10th best prospects in the nation. Each has fed the hype by performing well enough to earn a midseason promotion, so Twins fans are understandably licking their chops imagining the impact these young hitters can have at Target Field in the not-so-distant future. Sano could appear in the big leagues before this season is over, and Buxton's not terribly far behind. But reaching the majors and succeeding there are two vastly different things. Even for the most talented of prospects, acclimating to the highest level can be a daunting challenge requiring plenty of patience. At this point, both the Twins' top two prospects appear capable of hitting the ground running and quickly adapting once they take that ultimate step, but to hold that expectation is simply unfair. As a reminder, fans at Target Field this weekend need only look across to the other dugout. Click here to view the article

The fact that the Twins sit at 6-6 after two weeks could be viewed as a surprise in and of itself, given their low expectations and some of the rough patches we've already seen. Of course, anything can happen over the course of 12 games, and that applies to individual players as well as the team as a whole. Still, the first half of April has been marked by some surprising developments -- from my perspective, at least. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Jason Kubel's Defense Coming in, my expectation was that Kubel would prove to be a superior option in the field to Josh Willingham and perhaps Oswaldo Arcia. That spoke more to the height of the bar being set than to Kubel's actual defensive prowess. Not only has Kubel shown in these first few weeks that he's clearly better than both Willingham and Arcia in the corner spots, he's actually looked quite good. He's not fast by any means, but he moves around well out there and generally takes good routes. Plus, his arm is a cannon. I've been impressed by a few of the rockets he's unleashed toward the infield. During Kubel's previous time in Minnesota, I always felt he was underrated as a defender. Even at 31 and after battling a leg injury, that remains true. Brian Dozier's Power Last year Dozier went deep 18 times to lead the team. That was two more home runs than his total in 365 minor-league games. The power outburst was so sudden and stark that it seemed there was no way he'd repeat it this year, even if you assumed he'd continue to be a strong offensive contributor. Yet, rather than regressing, Dozier has been launching dingers at an even higher rate in this young season. Through 12 games, he has already tallied four long balls. That would extrapolate to 54 homers in a full season, and while he's obviously not going to sustain that rate, it's a promising sign that his increased pop in 2013 was legit. Trevor Plouffe's Plate Discipline Download attachment: plouffe.jpg Over the past two seasons, the same primary issue has been apparent in Plouffe's offensive game: lack of pitch recognition. Outside of a few stretches where he was really locked in, the third baseman consistently chased and played into the pitcher's hand. He entered this season with a career 289-to-96 K/BB ratio in 351 MLB games. When I talked to him in spring training, Plouffe called out pitch recognition as one of his main focuses entering this year, and so far the efforts appear to be paying off. In the first two weeks, he actually has more walks (9) than strikeouts (8), which is a radical and refreshing change. In just 12 games, he has already drawn more than a quarter of last year's walk total (34). The improved approach hasn't yet resulted in a home run for Plouffe, but he is batting .326 with a .446 on-base percentage, justifying his recent presence in the lineup's No. 3 spot. Joe Mauer's Strikeouts Whereas Plouffe has cut down on the whiffs, Mauer continues to veer away from his previous standing as one of the game's foremost contact hitters. Last year he struck out in 17.5 percent of his plate appearances -- a noticeable leap from his career 10.4 percent rate. Early this year, he's striking out in a whopping 24.6 percent of his trips. For a standard major-league player, that's not an extraordinarily high rate (the league as a whole is at 21 percent) but for a guy like Mauer it is striking, even in a small sample. I'm sure there are plenty of fans out there who would trade more strikeouts for more power from the franchise's premier player, and perhaps Saturday's impressive three-run blast pulled high over the wall in right-center is an indication we're headed that way. Mike Pelfrey's Control Problems Say what you will about Pelfrey's performance last year; at least he was decent at throwing strikes. He didn't issue more than two walks in a game for the first time until May 26th (his 10th start). This year he has done so in each of his first two turns, notching seven walks against six strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings of work. Pelfrey is always going to give up a lot of hits, so he simply cannot afford to be handing out a bunch of free passes to further jam up the bases. Obviously it's been hurting him plenty so far. Click here to view the article

"What in the hell is a Pedro Florimon?" -- professional baseball writer, doing research on projected starting lineups — Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron) January 25, 2013 The above tweet from the wise-cracking and hilarious SB Nation scribe Grant Brisbee was undoubtedly written after he glanced over projected starting lineups across the majors and did a triple-take when he came to Minnesota's shortstop position. He's hardly the first. I've had multiple national baseball writers contact me this offseason asking some variation of, "The Twins aren't really going to give this guy a starting job, are they?" [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] All I can do is shrug. Florimon's career numbers suggest he is not a major-league caliber player, and he certainly didn't look the part last year, but Terry Ryan has treated shortstop as a non-concern this winter. Possibly the GM is open to trying Brian Dozier there again, or considers Jamey Carroll an acceptable fallback, but Ryan hasn't even openly pondered bringing in someone to compete at the position. He's repeatedly talked about doing so with Trevor Plouffe at third. It's not clear what Florimon has done to earn this billing. He was waived by a 93-loss Orioles team after the 2011 season, and then passed on by 29 organizations when the Twins claimed him and outrighted him from their 40-man roster. He went on to up sub par numbers between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out at a Gomez-esque 25 percent rate, and then came up and played poorly with the Twins for a couple months. Download attachment: florimon.jpg At TwinsFest over the weekend, Ryan told a media luncheon that Florimon is "the athlete you look for" at shortstop. That may very well be true, and ostensibly the hope is that he'll develop as he ages into his prime and become a useful long-term cog on this rebuilding roster. But with Florimon, that really is a stretch. He's 26 and he's totaled over 3,000 professional plate appearances. He has established himself very firmly at the plate as a strikeout machine with minimal power and in the field as a flashy, skillful defender who makes a ton of mistakes. In order to provide meaningful value, he'll need to offer enough on defense to make up for all the outs he's likely to give away on offense. That's a tall order. He might be the biggest long shot the Twins have taken at the position since Cristian Guzman's departure, and that's saying something. Click here to view the article

About a month from today, Jamey Carroll will turn 38 years old. That will make the veteran infielder, signed by the Twins earlier this offseason to man shortstop over the next couple seasons, the same age as former Minnesota third baseman Corey Koskie. Of course, while Carroll is enjoying the best years of his pro baseball career, Koskie has been out of the game since 2006, when a concussion sustained in Milwaukee ended his days as a major-leaguer. An athletic baseball player with a tremendous passion for the game, cut down in his prime by an injury that seemed totally harmless at the time, even to him. I brought up the unfortunate parallel between Koskie and Justin Morneau after the latter had been sidelined for a month by a concussion suffered in 2010, and unfortunately, little has happened since then to dispel such allusions. In the weeks and months following Morneau's initial incident, Twins trainers repeatedly talked about the "progress" he was making toward getting back on the field. He never returned in 2010, but embarked on an offseason program designed to get him back into playing shape while protecting his head. Again, "progress" was the go-to buzzword in all Morneau updates. The first baseman returned to the field for for 69 games last year, but was hardly the same player, and after re-triggering concussion symptoms on a fielding attempt in August, he was again shut down for the year. Now, Twins fans are left in the same state of limbo that they were a year ago, with the word "progress" once again being tossed around in the absence of any more substantive news. At this point, the word has basically lost all meaning, but Twins officials can hardly be blamed for falling back on it. As was the case last winter, they don't know what Morneau's status truly is, or what to expect from him when he shows up in Ft. Myers next month. That's very unfortunate. As Judd Zulgad wrote yesterday for ESPN 1500, the first baseman's situation is distinctly more worrisome than that of Joe Mauer, who by all accounts is feeling much stronger after a surgery-free offseason. It seems likely that Mauer will be able to play at a high level this year, and even if his balky knee prevents him from catching full-time, the club has added a couple intriguing backup options at catcher in Ryan Doumit and J.R. Towles (a former outstanding prospect who's worth keeping an eye on). But there's no one who can replace the value that a healthy Morneau provides, both on and off the field. Team insiders suggest that, with Michael Cuddyer gone, Morneau is the one player who can step in as a vocal clubhouse anchor, with the kind of fiery personality to rally the troops and avoid a catastrophe similar to last year. If Morneau can't go, not only will the Twins lack a slugging first baseman capable of pounding 30 home runs with 100-plus RBI -- they'll also lack an obvious candidate to provide true leadership on this club, whatever you believe that's worth. Certainly the league's award voters have recognized Morneau's value as stretching beyond his numbers. He won the AL MVP in 2006 with a questionable statistical case and placed second in 2008 with even lesser numbers, despite the Twins missing the playoffs. Mauer might be the Twins' best player, but Morneau is a vital cog. His uncertain (at best) status going forward is probably the No. 1 overarching concern that surrounds this 2012 team. For the sake of Twins fans – and him and his family more than anything – I hope his "progress" this offseason is a lot more meaningful than in past instances. Click here to view the article

In their first turn through the rotation this past season, the Twins sent out Vance Worley, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez. Opening the year with multiple backup plans already plugged into the starting five set the stage for a tumultuous campaign that exposed the organization's miserable starting pitching depth at the high levels. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Overly lengthy auditions for guys like Worley, Hernandez and Scott Diamond, along with painful redux performances from non-MLB talents like P.J. Walters and Cole De Vries, were all contributors in a season that saw Twins starters finish at the bottom of the majors in ERA, xFIP, WHIP and basically any other important category you could imagine. With two signings in the books already, and with at least one more expected to come, the Twins are now actually building something resembling depth in their starting corps, so that if someone gets hurt or struggles they might actually have multiple palatable options waiting on deck to step in, rather than uninspiring emergency plugs. It's been quite a while since that has been the case. With Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes already added to the mix to join Kevin Correia, and with many seeming to believe that one more veteran pitcher -- possibly Mike Pelfrey -- will still be enlisted, there may be only one opening available in the 2014 season-opening rotation. Terry Ryan has hinted that Samuel Deduno earned himself another chance, if healthy, with his strong performance in 2013. That would round out the rotation, meaning that a group including Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers, Hendriks and Alex Meyer could be left on the outside looking in. That's undeniably an intriguing group. Not all are certain to remain within the organization if they don't latch onto the 25-man roster (some, like Worley and Diamond, will be out of options), but having a handful of pitchers with some history of MLB success -- or with legit prospect luster -- available in Triple-A would put the Twins in a very different position than they have been over the past three years. Download attachment: worley.jpg Worley was the Opening Day starter in 2013. Diamond was the team's best starter in 2012. Albers impressed during his debut, Meyer is the organization's top pitching prospect and Gibson offers sizable potential despite a rocky start. Any one of those guys has the potential to bounce back or emerge as a legitimate quality option, giving the Twins a much comfier margin for error with the guys currently slotted to comprise the rotation. Everyone wants to talk about the importance of adding an ace at the top, and that would certainly be nice, but having decent arms available to plug in at the back end if someone gets hurt or isn't performing can be almost just as important over the course of a 162-game season. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: crystal-ball.jpg Alright, the season is already underway and the Twins get started Friday, so let's get these obligatory MLB-wide predictions out of the way. I've listed my guesses for all the division winners and award recipients; please add your picks in the same categories so that we can all look back at the end of the year and laugh about how wrong we were. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] AL West: Angels AL Central: Tigers AL East: Red Sox AL Wild Card 1: Rangers AL Wild Card 2: Rays AL MVP: Evan Longoria AL Cy Young: Jon Lester AL Rookie: Yu Darvish NL West: Diamondbacks NL Central: Cardinals NL East: Phillies NL Wild Card 1: Marlins NL Wild Card 2: Braves NL MVP: Justin Upton NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg NL Rookie: Bryce Harper World Series: Phillies over Tigers Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]After splitting a brief two-game set at Miller Park, the Twins now return to Target Field for the second half of a home-and-home series this week against the Brewers. The interstate rivalry annually produces a great deal of interest, with numerous Milwaukeeans trekking into town, so the ballpark figures to be a bustling place. The weather forecast is looking beautiful (75 and sunny) for both Wednesday and Thursday, and Ticket King has some great seats available for both games, but if you have to pick one, which is the best option? We'll dig into the specific match-ups shortly. But first, let's size up the opponent. Strong Brew Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, finishing fourth in the NL Central. This year, they're off to a much better start, with a comfortable early lead in one of baseball's toughest divisions. Milwaukee has jumped out to an impressive 35-24 record thanks, in part, to contributions from some familiar faces. Download attachment: gomez.jpg Carlos Gomez blossomed last year as an MVP-caliber player in center field, and he has only continued to grow this season. Through 53 games, Gomez is batting .310/.384/.562 with 11 homers, 11 steals and elite defense at a key position. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement, Gomez has been the fourth-most valuable player in the NL, trailing only Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton and Yasiel Puig. The guy is an absolute stud, and also damn fun to watch. In addition to center field, the Brewers have a couple former Twins anchoring their rotation. Kyle Lohse was a late free agent signing last year, and he has turned into the team's ace, with a 7-1 record and 2.60 ERA through 12 starts. Matt Garza was this year's marquee free agent splash, and although he hasn't had the same success as Lohse (Garza's 4.42 ERA is actually the highest among starters) he remains a quality pitcher with the ability to shut down opposing lineups, as he showed in Milwaukee on Monday. The Twins won't face Lohse or Garza at Target Field, but they will have to deal with two formidable arms. The Match-Ups Wednesday: Marco Estrada vs. Ricky Nolasco @ 7:10 PM Estrada might be one of the more underrated starters in the National League, and he's enjoying another strong season with a 5-2 record, 4.03 ERA and 62-to-20 K/BB ratio through 11 starts. The right-hander's biggest weakness is that he has always been somewhat homer-prone, and that has been magnified this year as he's already coughed up a league-leading 17 bombs. The Twins have seen a few of their power bats start to heat up lately (most notably Josh Willingham), so if you're looking to see some balls fly out of the park, or if you're just generally looking for a decent chance at a win, this game is for you. Thursday: Wily Peralta vs. Kevin Correia @ 7:10 PM In a rare Thursday evening game, the Twins are staring at a lopsided pitching tilt. Correia has struggled mightily at home, where he's 1-4 with an unsightly 7.09 ERA. Meanwhile, the hard-throwing right-hander Peralta has been exquisite on the road, with a 1.88 ERA in four turns. This will be a very tough one to win. But oftentimes, those are the most rewarding. [/hr] If you want to see the Twins try and add to Estrada's homer total, there are Wednesday night tickets available for under $25. Or, if you want to get the weekend started early, you could snag some tickets for Thursday's night game. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: spanruns.jpg 1) The Twins will be one of the first teams to sign a pitcher, and it will be a relatively big name. This certainly wouldn't be business as usual, and I don't actually think it'll be Zack Greinke. But the front office has been frank in its dissatisfaction with the current starting pitching situation, and has expressed an urgency to address that unit during the offseason.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In his recent interview with John Bonnes for the Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan hinted that he'd be taking a hard look at some of the better pitchers in free agency, and when John asked whether the plan was to sit back and wait as opposed to aggressively pursuing targets, Ryan responded, "If I do that, we'll probably be holding the bag. You know pitching is going to go off the board." My guess it that the Twins have a list of high-end to mid-tier free agents that they especially like, and they'll get one of those guys signed pretty quickly, which will set the course for the rest of their offseason. 2) Denard Span will be traded. And fans, including myself, will probably be disappointed in the return. Span's a very good player that just doesn't seem to be valued as highly around the league as he should be. It's no secret that the Twins have been open to dealing him multiple times in the past and have never gotten an offer that quite enticed them. This winter, they have more motivation to move him than ever before, with Ben Revere's emergence, Chris Parmelee's presence, rising outfield prospects and major pitching needs. Hopefully Span's best year since 2009 will help the Twins get the return they deserve. 3) Payroll will increase. I'm going out on a limb here to some degree, because most people seem to think the team's spending will sink after another revenue-dropping ugly season. It's hard to blame them. Still, I think Ryan is going to want to do a lot of things this offseason in order to give Ron Gardenhire a fair shot at keeping his job next year, and I think the ownership will give the GM financial flexibility to make a lot of those things happen. It's in everyone's best interest. I'm not saying payroll will rise back to $100 million, as I've suggested it should, but I'd be awfully disappointed to see it drop. Again. 4) Alexi Casilla will be non-tendered. As a guy who can't hit well enough to start and really only excels at one position defensively, Casilla is the definition of a futility infielder. He's entering his third year of arbitration, which means he'll be due for a raise (albeit slight) on his $1.38 million salary from this past year. There's always been a distinct trace of promise somewhere deep within the athletic Casilla, but he's coming off one of his worst seasons and is now 28. It's time to let go. With cheaper options like Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Florimon available, the Twins are likely to agree. 5) The Twins will draft a Rule 5 player who will stick. When asked about how he intends to overhaul the pitching staff during the offseason, Ryan always responds by stating that he intends to pursue "all avenues," and he invariably mentions the Rule 5 draft as one of them. He doesn't mention how rarely impact players are acquired there. Nevertheless, by virtue of another horrible finish the Twins will once again be one of the first teams to pick, and hopefully they've learned a few things from last year's ill-fated Terry Doyle selection. I think they'll grab someone and find room to give him a shot, and I'm not even sure it will be a pitcher. There are other weaknesses on this club. Click here to view the article