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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. After the trade the Rockies DFAed Christian Friedrich. I would take a shot on him. His numbers are pretty brutal, but he does significantly better against lefties and significantly better on the road. Maybe a change of scenery could lead to a rebound. He had first round pedigree, and I think he has plenty of stuff from when I watched him.
  2. It is a good class, but is driven by a uniquely good group of in state talent. Will be interesting to see if they can rebound with a better year next year on the field (I think they can) and keep some momentum going with recruiting outside the state. When Kill retired there was always going to be an impact, the key is to make sure it doesn't extend past this season.
  3. Possible, but he would do well to not swing at pitches far out of the zone. not only do you miss much more often, but any contact is usually weak, out-inducing contact. BB rate is always a shorthand for plate discipline, but much more important is swinging at pitches in the zone. Walks usually follow at an acceptable rate.
  4. Longer than that. And I suspect it was more than numbers that kept him down.
  5. Not really, he got the PAs he deserved on merit. I really like Arcia, want him to do well and think he could contribute mightily, but his season was a self-inflicted train wreck.
  6. So, using rate stats over wildly varied sample sizes of plate appearances again. Arcia didn't get demoted to AAA for giggles, he was hurt (per usual) and was ticketed for a brief rehab that, based on his performance, needed to be extended. Unfortunately it was the whole year. Those are incredibly lame excuses being offered on his behalf.
  7. It's the fans. Twins FO is planning on rolling with him, even if they are (wisely) downplaying it in the offseason.
  8. I do think we'll see that on occasion, but won't be plan a out of camp.
  9. Sure, but it was almost 3 months (counting DL time). I think only one catcher is preferable to no CFs.
  10. I don't get the lack of confidence in Buxton starting the season in CF. It would take an injury or a terrible spring slump to keep him from breaking camp with the Twins. Twins wouldn't have traded Hicks if they had doubts. I generally think that barring injury the everyday roster is pretty close to locked in.
  11. Unusually good in state talent this year that pretty much all stayed.
  12. I also suspect that if you took out the teams that are clearly rebuilding (and would thus be in the bottom 67 percent for payroll) that would eliminate all the difference. I personally think the worst scenario a team can be in is to lock good money into players who are just good enough not to get dfa'ed - like 3 years for a decent but not great reliever.
  13. I don't know if it's fair to compare a guys first pro season to second, and rate stats when there is about a 2 to 1 difference in PA is a little dicey. I would still pick Gordon.
  14. Payroll will be at least $200k less than listed. Sweeney is not breaking camp ahead of Buxton.
  15. I think the Twins have a good mix of upside and youth, with some depth, and possibilities for rebounds that could/should cancel out some expected regression. Great lineup seems a stretch, but it should be pretty solid. To me, and it is not especially controversial, but Buxton is such a massive x factor. I think the Twins have a very solid lineup if he puts up his Steamer line 258/309/398, which I find a little optimistic. I would probably bank on more of a 245/290/375, which is not great, but acceptable for an elite d/speed guy batting low in the order. What makes him an x factor, though, is if he can put it together much quicker than expected, puts up something like a 280/335/490 (aka something slightly worse than Correa put up) or even higher. Combine that with a decent Park and a slight rebound from Mauer and you would have a really good order, maybe even great.
  16. I would guess Buxton starts out hitting 9th too. My opening day guess: Rosario Dozier Mauer Sano Park Plouffe Escobar Murphy Buxton
  17. I wasn't asking that and I don't think it is a coincidence either. But I do think revenues were starting to rise as Boras became more well known - there was certainly a market for agents that would advocate strongly for their clients. And yes the Royals and Twins were at one point handing out the biggest contracts, but that was very short lived and was in the brief window when attendance was the primary driver of revenue amd they were simultaneously the highest drawing teams (at least the Twins were). Very soon revenue started to be driven by tv contracts, luxury boxes, corporate sponsorship and other ways those franchises couldn't keep up. And I would still argue that players get those contracts because of publicly funded stadiums and tv contracts, those two items don't exist because of big player contracts. And let's not pretend like this is a totally bad thing either. Target Field is much more enjoyable place to watch a game than the Metrodome, and we are fortunate that we can now watch every Twins game of the season from basically anywhere in the world. These are good things. And I also don't buy minor leaguers and international players and fans are getting screwed. While the relative slice is dropping, they are getting more money than they have ever gotten. This will continue, with the possible exception of Cubans). Perhaps they should be getting more, but I reject the idea they are getting screwed. And fans now have more access to more games and more information and more enjoyable facilities than they ever have. And they get to watch better players from more places around the world. This all strikes me as positive developments. And it's only going to get better and better.
  18. So you think owners wouldn't try to maximize revenues if they didn't have to pay as high of player salaries? I think they always want to maximize revenues and minimize costs. The difference is that baseball has turned more into a business from what it may have been in the past. It probably took more buy in from players to get to that point. I see Boras, etc as a product of that shift, not the cause.
  19. I'm skeptical of the tone of the article. I don't know whywe should root for Arte Moreno instead of Mike Trout going forward. I understand some of the frustration against the players union for not standing up more for minor league players and aome other baseball employees but that really isn't their job. If the players union refused to do even the little that they do minor leaguers would have it even worse. Owners aren't going to suddenly treat other sources of expense better. As far as the specific points you made, I'll say the following. I agree the minimum salary will likely rise, there will some sort of international draft, decent chance for an expanded roster. Free agent compensation will be tweaked. I wish they would do something similar as the nfl, take the net free agents lost amd give comp picks. Not sure the plan. For the draft I think trading picks might be on the table. I'm also not super concerned about the draft causing a talent drain, no evidence of it now and the draft pool keeps increasing. No chance there is a shortening of service time before free agency. Not sure where that comes from. I actually think the bigger fight will be between big and small market, involving revenue sharing and luxury tax, then between players and owners. Overall money will move around but there won't be that significant of a change that drastically changes competitive balance. I understand some of the concern for minor leagues, but the current situation seems too mutually beneficial to significantly change anytime soon.
  20. I personally am as fully on board with this article as I was adamantly against your plan last offseason.
  21. I don't. Pinto was hurt and the others showed little. Considering the 40 man situations, acquiring those 4 would be more negative than positive for a team, certainly not worth a decent reliever.
  22. Slightly off topic but the last response made me think about it. Have the people who complain about Gilmartin actually seen him pitch? I'm not necessarily defending the move but I still really don't care. He's a slopballing lefty who put up a few numbers when properly hidden by the Mets. He didn't get a significant out the entire postseason and likely won't make it through next season. Duensing had a two month run of similar success last year, Gilmartin was just fortunate enough to fool hitters a little longer. Jones has much more upside than Gilmartin ever will.
  23. A BA list with 46 players that might get drafted in the Rule 5. Zack Jones is the only Twin to make it. I suspect the rest of marginal guys in the org are going to be fine. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-rule-5-draft-preview-names-remember/
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