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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Other franchises go a decade without developing an ace (minimum 3.5 WAR for at least 3 seasons) all the time. Since Santana's time I came up with Arizona, Colorado, San Diego, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Kansas City, Baltimore, Yankees, Toronto, as franchises that didn't develop aces (FA signings exempted). This was the top of my head, I accept I could be missing some guys. It is not a Twins only problem, but also not surprisingly it includes other small and mid market teams that have struggled to have consistent success.
  2. drjim
    If you take those 4 (and add Stewart and Mejia) and get 2 starters for more than 3-4 years, that would be a good outcome.
  3. drjim
    They have finally pushed some decent depth to the upper minors, but outside of Berrios they still strike me as 4ish types. Nothing wrong with that, but probably aren't going to get the elite starters they have been missing recently. And I still think Kohl Stewart as close to as much chance of mlb success as everyone else mentioned here.
  4. drjim
    They have Latino pitching coaches in the minors. I don't think that's the problem. There were potential red flags with Berrios in the minors that were exposed in the majors. Probably the reason he wasn't promoted quite as quickly as some wanted him to be. Key will be whether he can make the adjustments.
  5. drjim
    I'm just not convinced it was unwittingly playing moneyball. I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt that they knew what they were doing. I do think they were slow to change to the new realities of baseball, and they did fall behind in talent acquisition and development, and they were flat out unlucky with some their moves and prospects. They combination of these three things led to the current dire situation. I really appreciate your second point. I've been kicking this idea around a little bit myself. The Twins certainly needed an upgrade in statistical analysis, seen mostly in just enhanced capabilities in both staff and systems. But as every team is basically on the same level, it will be interesting to see where the new advantages will emerge. I suspect the slight advantages will be captured outside the metrics, from specific types of scouting, development protocols and relationships. There is certainly some work being done in more advanced physics (spin rate, etc) and injury prevention, remains to be seen if it makes any difference. But mostly I think it will be from good fortune (where talent develops and/or plays beyond expectations) and competitive cycles that will more or less track market sizes. All that to say, based on the original topic, that I'm not convinced the Twins have done much better or worse than what would be expected, considering their draft positions.
  6. drjim
    I thought the new conventional wisdom was that the x of xfip was pretty meaningless. I don't have much opinion on siera, haven't engaged it as much.
  7. drjim
    True, but fip fluctuates quite a bit year by year for pitchers too. It might be slightly more predictive and stable than era, but doesn't really tell us a ton either of what to expect the next season.
  8. drjim
    I find it quite disingenuous to say they took advantage of a market inefficiency based solely on luck. I'm willing to give them a little bit more credit. The weaknesses of the front office were in other areas, not in misunderstanding what makes good baseball teams.
  9. drjim
    No stat truly or perfectly judges how a pitcher did. Even fip is just a number gleaned from three inputs. Important inputs to be sure, but not the be all end all either. I always think of era as being the quickest measure of what happened in the most basic currency (outs and runs), and fip being the quick and dirty measure of what could have happened and may happen in the future based on underlying talent of the pitcher.
  10. drjim
    Of course it wouldn't be talked about it if it weren't players on the football team. There are probably situations like this often on campuses that we never hear about.
  11. drjim
    Personally, considering the makeup of the EOAA office, I would want to make sure a man is on the panel.
  12. drjim
    Another thing I heard today that I didn't realize is that all the players freely and fully cooperates from day one with the police and the university. I don't think that happens very often. I think it is wrong to look at the players behavior merely as supporting teammates who assaulted someone or even condoning the behavior. Seems it goes much deeper and there is a real sense of betrayal from the football team. All of which is of course unimportant if there was an assault, but from what I've gleaned I'm a little skeptical. Also fascinating to me that Claeys and the staff are so public in their support of the players. I think there's little chance they survive this. Perhaps they read the writing on the wall.
  13. drjim
    Reusse weighs in, adds a few more layers. http://m.startribune.com/clash-of-powerful-social-forces-or-maybe-a-feud-roil-u-waters/407164706/ I didn't really think too much about the optics of 10 black players and one white girl, but I imagine that's a thing too.
  14. drjim
    This strikes me as a dangerous precedent, but perhaps this will be a one off event. Again, I'm only going on the full report that I read, which may be missing a few details, but seemed pretty thorough (graphically thorough).
  15. drjim
    I 100% agree with this, but I find it important not to mix this opinion with what should be the consequence against the football players should be. I also wouldn't want my son expelled if he didn't engage in a criminal act. It also seems possible/likely some of the players suspended didn't even engage in the act but were only in the same room. I really wouldn't want my son suspended/expelled for that.
  16. drjim
    Man, just read parts of that report. That is hard reading and truly terrible behavior. That said, I can see why no charges were filed. Even with the a favorable reading towards the young woman, it's not exactly clear that she ever was clear that she didn't want to engage in the acts, at least as the law would be concerned. I do appreciate that the university might have a different standard though.
  17. drjim
    Thanks for that perspective. There is an awful lot to wrap our heads around with this story. I wonder if this is a case of the EOAA overstepping, turning a sad situation into a complete clustermess.
  18. drjim
    I think there's a good chance that many of the ways people complained about the previous regime about roster construction and management are pretty much the way that all teams operate even under all different kinds of leadership groups and styles. There will be organizational changes and improvements at the margins, probably most especially in talent acquisition and development, but much about roster management will be more or less the same. Decisions around keeping players that are out of options, or giving first opportunities to players with contracts, or sending younger players to the minors longer than we might like are not going to suddenly change, if for no other reason than teams like to build depth and don't like to cut loose contracts until they absolutely have to.
  19. drjim
    Putting Berrios in the pen would be a massive mistake for a team in the Twins position. No chance. I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes ends up in the pen, perhaps even in spring training. One reason it makes sense to bring in another veteran starter.
  20. drjim
    He was really good in AAA, I wouldn't argue otherwise. But I think it is clear that his command needed to be tightened up. What worked in AAA was exploited in the majors. This is not uncommon. I'm not opposed to him starting in the rotation and working it out in the majors, but I think there is wisdom in keeping him down in AAA, give the other depth guys a shot, and clean it up before unleashing him. When I say "dominate in spring training" I am talking not necessarily about numbers, those don't mean much, but about showing that he has improved this weakness in his pitching. If he does that, he'll probably earn a spot in the opening day rotation. But he shouldn't be Plan A.
  21. drjim
    On paper it will be even worse once they trade Dozier.
  22. drjim
    Spring training dominance would not just be numbers. And I don't necessarily agree he dominated AAA last year so much he has nothing left to do. His walks ticked up and that was his clear problem once he reached the majors. I don't especially care about Frank Viola's career arc.
  23. drjim
    There are certainly different standards for vets than guys trying to break in. Gibson and Santiago are easy in my mind, healthy and have made it through multiple seasons. Gibson at least has some upside and Santiago is a place holder who can stabalize the rotation a little, protect the bullpen, and possibly flip at the deadline (a perfect guy for a rebuilding team). I would like to give May another shot, and then leave the last spot open. Hughes would get the first crack if healthy based on track record. I think people generally underestimate how difficult it is for a young starter to crack a rotation day one and make it through the season. This is more to protect Berrios than anything. It's not like a rotation of Santana/Gibson/Santiago/May/Hughes (or other vet) is going to make all their starts. He'll get his chance really quick if he deserves it.
  24. drjim
    Come in and dominate in the spring, or dominate in AAA. It doesn't matter that much if he's there April 1 or May 1. He was bad last year, nothing wrong with easing him in, controlling his innings a little, giving him some confidence, put him in a position to succeed. If he blows everyone away in the spring, great, put him in and let's roll. But no way he should be Plan A right now. He showed nothing in the majors last year to earn that.
  25. drjim
    Agree on the rotation. Even if Dozier is traded for De Leon, not sure what Berrios/De Leon/Duffey/Mejia have done to make people think they can take the ball on day one and make 30 starts. For a rebuilding team it makes even more sense to be patient with pitchers. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign or trade for another veteran starting pitcher depending on what they think about Hughes.
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