drjim

It is only year one for May. Also, September callups are a little overstated. They will call up a catcher and maybe another guy right away but they usually wait until the AAA season is over until the call up any others.

I truly think it comes down to how ruthless Jim Pohlad is as an owner. After three bad seasons in a row it will be hard to sell Gardy/Andy coming back for another one. This is a bottom line issue.

This is not a consideration unless the Twins plan on keeping him down for a month next season.

There are no top of the rotation arms in free agency. There are several mid-rotation arms. Potential Free Agents for 2014 | Cot's Baseball Contracts

I would agree.

I don't want to speak for anyone else - but I don't think anyone said there is anything wrong with being a cynic.

The cynical view may very well turn out to be correct. I don't think so for the following reasons: 1. While it is true that Ryan has no track record, there really are only two seasons of a record to draw upon (I consider pre-Target Field to be relatively meaningless in drawing conclusions), and I think a reasonable argument can be made that either offseason wasn't the right time to make such a signing. 2011 because 4 rotation spots were locked in and 2012 because of the many reasons that have been debated to death. Terry Ryan has guaranteed almost $50 million in free agent contracts to players from outside the organization in the past two offseasons, so it's not like he doesn't spend. 2. The supply of free agent pitchers this offseason is more advantageous than last season. It doesn't have any pitcher as good as Greinke or Sanchez, but there is some depth in the next tier (where the Twins should be shopping). 3. The statements by both Terry Ryan and Jim Pohlad have hinted at more action. I also sense they will feel much more pressure this offseason to make a significant move than they have the previous two years. The doubletalk will not be nearly as effective and Pohlad will start to be hit in the pocketbook a lot harder if nothing is done. I also want to be clear on "quality pitcher". By that I'm thinking someone like Hughes or Vargas (or others of their ilk). Not an ace by any means but a step up from what has been signed the past two seasons. I think they sign one "quality pitcher" and also at least one other guy one a one year flier type contract (or someone in the Pelfrey mold). It is also possible they do a trade instead of a signing, but those are harder to predict for obvious reasons.

I would think keeping his k rate low is his only chance at being able to hit enough. With his lack of power I don't see him being able to walk all that much so it will be critical to make enough contact to maintain a solid average/OBP. Maybe a .265/.310/.330 type of line? If he can do that with good defense and get some bags, that is a borderline acceptable everyday SS. Great writeup.

It's going to make the turnaround all that much sweeter right?

I don't think I called anyone anything, but perhaps you read differently. I do think people should own their positions and not be so offended.

I think they do sign a free agenthe that is better than what they signed last year.

I would agree the assessment of the options for the opening day rotation that are currently on the roster was pretty accurate. However, to then take the position that the rotation will not be further improved is indeed the most cynical position one can take. It could also be correct (though I highly doubt it). I am indeed an optimist but I really honestly believe Ryan will do something to improve the state of the rotation going into next year. Mostly because it won't be that hard to do so. As you said, whatever he does do won't significantly improve the rotation on its own, it will also require significant internal improvement or emergence from guys currently in the organization to make said significant improvement.

We clearly have different definitions of cynical. I agree the internal options to start the season in the rotation are not good. It is cynical to assume Terry Ryan will do nothing to improve the situation. One legit free agent won't significantly improve the rotation but it will improve it and there is reason to hope for some internal improvement or the emergence of someone like Meyer.

I agree this is the most cynical analysis possible and at the very least they will add some slop. But I genuinely expect at least one legitimate free agent based on options available and recent comments by Jim Pohlad.

No chance Meyer starts the year with the Twins. They will protect him out of the gate but the hope is he will force his way on thw team within a month or two. May has a much better chance to start the season in the majors.

You mean one out of four signed flipped for two role players. That's your hope?

I think for most teams this should be less and less of an issue. There is more than enough money in the game to lock up studs. What hurts payrolls is overpaying for mediocre free agents.

The big mistake with Mauer was only signing him for 4 years in his initial extension. Ryan has actually never signed a contract longer than that but this will have to change. I'm just not that concerned about a couple extra million per year. As stated the system is set up gor Sano to be a Twin as long as they'll have him. Plus I'm selfish, I want to see the guy play. I can guarantee I'll buy more tickets in September if he is on the roster.

Hmmm. I hears the same interview and remember it pretty much like was quoted a couple posts back. They won't close the door and if he keeps hitting like he has he will force a callup.

When did TR say that? I have heard him say something quite different recently that it hasn't been determined. Also, while roster space is a concern there is potentially huge marketing gains for the Twins if they call him up. A couple of bombs could move the needle on season tickets.

Might cost a couple more million but in the context of a 6+ year contract it's not that significant.

I disagree. He is the type of player that should be locked up early and render service time moot.

I would maybe go the other way (though not blame Bill James). I think no hit good glove middle infielders were common until the last decade or two as advancements in hitting analysis emerged and the true nature of their hitting ability was realized.

Being under contract next year probably hurts Doumit's value a little. If healthy he should have some value at the deadline next year.

I think you are quite conservative in Sano's timeline.