drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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I actually think Ryan has been acceptable since he took back the reins. The abyss of the franchise after 2011 can't easily be ignored. I think he deserves another year (subject to how he handles the next couple of weeks). I would fall into the camp that Gardy and Anderson should have been replaced two years ago. I don't think they are bad, but a decade plus is a good run.
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4 more years at $21 mil per. That is quite the risk. I would want that down to 14-15 before I would think about it, and I would give up something of substance, none of the top 6, but perhaps something in the next tier if the Dodgers take back enough money. This is much more likely in the offseason.
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Pohlad seriously lacks charisma, but I have always felt that he is pretty straightforward and honest in his interviews. I read this as paving the way for roster churn (trades and free agents) as much as anything, though perhaps Gardy should be nervous.
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I think they go big on a starter and also add a corner bat. Unless they trade Fien I would be surprised if they spent anything on a reliever, plenty of in house options. Payroll ends more or less the same as it is this season.
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Stewart won't get out of Cedar Rapids, though I'm not exactly sure what his innings cap would be at this point, low 100s probably. The thing to consider for last year is that he had a high school schedule and did pitch in instructs, so that innings count is a little deceiving. Buxton will go to AA as soon as he is ready, which might not be long. He should then play in the Fall League too. I'm still optimistic on his timetable, barring injury I think he makes it to Minnesota late April/early May next year (once he passes the threshold for an extra year of control).
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Is Ramsey better than Grichuk? Seems more a matter of preference. And I would think the Cardinals would be more agreeable if given a choice to trade a prospect recently acquired over a player they drafted. Plus Grichuk could go right into the lineup, Ramsey is probably more a next year guy, at which point they shouldn't need a CF.
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Let's hope so. I appreciate that calling up May without a couple of starts would be a mistake, but rolling out Johnson and Pino for more than a start (or two) would be uninspiring to say the least.
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This was my exact thought too as far as StL is concerned. They probably won't move a pitcher and they have some depth at OF. Would dovetail nicely with a Willingham trade as well, he could fill in at LF for the rest of the year.
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Sorry, 5 from the Central, I forgot Frazier from Cleveland. EDIT: Check that again, Frazier didn't make the list, so it is 4.
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Rodon at 10. Zimmer and Mondesi from KC in the 20s. But yes, 6 Twins vs. 4 from rest of AL Central.
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Law did note that if someone wants to put Buxton at #1 he wouldn't really argue and that his ceiling remains the same. I think this shows just how good Bryant has been this year.
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Many mid-season lists don't include recent draftees. Also of note is that Rondon (#10) is the only other 2014 draftee ahead of Gordon on Law's list.
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Perfectly fine stopgap while cheap and waiting for Sano. I suspect Plouffe won't be in his way once Sano is ready. I was on the move Plouffe to LF idea, but the reality is that he just doesn't hit enough to concern with that. Once his time at 3B is done probably will be time to move on.
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Not to turn this into a just a Reusse discussion, but his main complaint against newer stats is WAR. I don't think that makes him that unique or that some skepticism is a bad thing. He is generally behind all counting and rate states. Wouldn't want him as a front office figure, but he understands ball just fine.
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Two things I have wondered is if different stadiums lead to different pitch f/x readings, and how much do the pitchers impact umpires calls. The studies claim otherwise, but I have to think bad staffs make catchers look worse.
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Not sure if this has been covered, but perhaps the most relevant detail is the agreement with Nix, the 5th rounder for $1.5 mil. That was the money that was going to be saved from for the initial underslot agreement with Aiken. If Aiken doesn't sign the Astros would lose the #1 pick slot and if the agreement with Nix is honored then Houston would potentially lose both #1 picks next year (their own and the comp pick for not signing Aiken). The juicy detail is that Nix and Aiken have the same agent, so perhaps Aiken has a little bit more leverage than we think.
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Boras, Morales interested in long term deal.
drjim replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't think 30+ year old DHs get 3 year deals. If he was worth that, draft pick compensation would not have prevented him for getting that last offseason. Twins can certainly afford any yearly price, they would just balk at the years (as they should). I would agree with your last part. Make a realistic offer and see if he will take it before the deadline. If not, you can trade him. That said, Morales isn't going to bring much back in return and is probably the type of guy that can get through waivers in August. -
As mentioned this situation happens all the time in the draft that a hs draftee doesn't sign. Even undrafted hs players aren't true free agents, they are still subject to the draft caps. Harrington was a college guy so not a truly comparable situation tough I admittedly am not sure. The key is that he isn't a true free agent. He can only enter mlb through the draft.
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Boras, Morales interested in long term deal.
drjim replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I really disagree with this thinking and actually would argue you have it backwards. There is very rarely a bad one year contract, but locking a player into multiple years leaves a franchise stuck with a contact. It is not necessarily the money but the roster spot a declining player takes up. I would think a team should always be trying to sign players to field the best team. The reason you would be hesitant to sign free agents would be they either a) block a younger player that is ready to play, or you have to sign the player for more years than he will bring value, either through decline or if you will have a player ready before the contract is up (for example, the Twins shouldn't sign a CF to more than a one year deal). -
If a kid enrolls in a 4 year college, he needs to spend three years there before he is eligible to be drafted (there are some draft eligible sophs who are older when they start school). JC players are eligible to be drafted every year. Correct, signing out of high school or going to college is the only option as a path to pro ball for an American/Canada/Puerto Rican born player.
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The key difference in my mind is that professional teams are solely interested in using development time to get a pitcher ready for the majors at the expense of wins and losses of the minor league team, so they can be much more cautious. College programs of course are focused primarily on wins. But I think the conclusion that they heavily abuse their pitchers is overstated - I recommend reading some Baseball America content for a good counter to Keith Law's hysterics on this. Three years difference is probably not true. College pitchers make the majors quicker than prep arms, so it is more like a year, maybe two.
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Aren't they trying to save money to spend on other pitchers? There is the fifth rounder mentioned, but also people that were taken after the 10th round that will sign for above slot. I actually think this is the reason for this, they want to squeeze Aiken so they can spread his money to other players. The second part wouldn't happen. There is an agreement between US and Japan professional leagues to not poach players like this outside of the formal system (posting process).
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I should also add that Aiken is signed with UCLA, generally considered the best college staff out there. I do agree (to a point) with the development point. It can set a good pitcher back a year or two from his debut and free agency.
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This is overstated. Vast majority of coaches treat their players just fine. A junior who has been working on six days rest can go a few more pitches than the typical minor leaguer working on four days.
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FWIW, this is the stat the Reusse always mentions as his favorite. I struggle with it a little, the hardcore stat types will downplay runs and RBI as being more a product of lineup and opportunity which I wouldn't argue. However, there has to be something to run production, it is after all the point of the game (along with not getting out).
