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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Why can't you criticize the trade?
  2. drjim
    For clarity, does anyone actually say this trade has been anything but a huge win for the Nationals so far? It would be impossible to say otherwise, because Meyer hasn't pitched in the majors yet. Acquired contractual control of Span ends after this season and Meyer may still contribute in some form, perhaps substantially, perhaps very little, perhaps for up to 6.5 years. But so far, some value always trumps no value, but I would hesitate to close the book on the trade ledger until it is actually complete.
  3. drjim
    It was 8 years later, with no of the players acquired having anything to do with it. But they did have some impact on winning the division in 2000, 3 years after the trade. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Flag_Trade
  4. drjim
    Why does anyone have to be to "blame" here? Prospects sometimes don't take linear paths to their ceilings. (I'm not directing this at you specifically)
  5. drjim
    Good point. SP prospects are a strange breed, can be so up and down with little rhyme or reason. Stepping away from starting for a couple weeks could turn him around. I'm not counting on that, but do think he could contribute as a two pitch reliever pretty quickly.
  6. drjim
    13 pitchers is probably a temporary situation, though Arcia will be back soon too.
  7. drjim
    Absolutely. Solid process with less than optimal results. And it's not like Meyer is done, he still could contribute substantially going forward, just not to the level that was dreamed on at the time of the trade.
  8. drjim
    Exactly. Two things defensive metrics miss out on in my opinion are quality of teammates. Better teammates allow players to shade more to out of zone areas and allow for less balls to be missed that should otherwise be caught (by said teammates). The second is impact of shifts. They are working to capture this better, but shifts will allow more balls caught out of zone, improving rankings. Probably not a coincidence that Hunter has been trending up as he got better defensive players in the OF and that the Twins shift a decent amount (and effectively) under Molitor.
  9. drjim
    Much less of an interest because he is already getting paid. I would agree with you on tie game extra innings, but would push back a little if you think he would pitch the same in 6th, 8th or 9th inning, and that this would last throughout the season. There is a reason teams settle into roles.
  10. drjim
    And for the record, if the reliever usage had played out differently leading up to extras and Molitor had some of his better relievers still available in addition to Perkins, I suspect he would have used Perkins for an inning before the Twins got the lead, probably the 10th.
  11. drjim
    I recommend this podcast: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=12910939 Interview by Jonah Keri with Glen Perkins himself where he talks about relievers having roles. Speaks a little bit to the idea that "pitching is pitching" and any reliever should be able to pitch in any situation. Spoiler alert - probably not that easy. Perkins is as statistically savvy and aware of optimal theories of reliever usage as anyone, and he says it probably isn't realistic. Setting roles allows optimal performance and uncertainly day in day out will eventually become too emotionally draining to perform optimally. Humans vs. anonymous data points and all that.
  12. drjim
    I want to add another thought to this article. Is it possible that mlb teams scout/draft this type of player (short RH starter) optimally? The two analogies that I would think of for baseball is someone who hits very well on first pitches but rarely swings, or someone who steals at a very high rate but rarely attempts a steal. If they would swing more or attempt more steals their success rates would drop, but probably stay within what would be considered a success (ie higher OPS than usual or a SB % still higher than 70). However, the marginal success of an additional steal attempt or first pitch swing would be much lower than the elevated rate. Perhaps it is the same for short RH starters? The ones that are actually drafted generally do well, but the lesson isn't necessarily to draft more. Drafting additional players of this subset would still result in a better than average "hit" rate compared to other player demographics, but the "hit" rate on those marginal players drafted would be lower. I would interested to know the success of short RH starters ranked just outside the top 25. This would tell us if perhaps this is a market inefficiency. I doubt it is. Two other potential "black swans" could be prep Cs and college corner bats. Teams generally avoid those types of players early in the draft.
  13. drjim
    I'm not sure LaRussa would be the solution to Ryan's shortcomings.
  14. drjim
    I also thought the "prospects are overrated" speculation came primarily from GMs who couldn't execute any trades. Prospects seem rated pretty properly to me. It depends on what you are trying to acquire. In the context of this post I was thinking more of how we need to trade some of our second and third tier guys because they don't always work out, which is true, but also limits their value. This offseason they can be moved for a year or two of control of a overpaid corner OF, or perhaps an overpaid SP with some question marks (probably would take 2-3 of those prospects). Where the Twins are, I would rather just overpay for those commodities on the free agent market (for someone like Masterson) rather then expend into the prospect depth. If you are talking about acquiring one of the elite guys available it will take elite prospects. I would certainly trade Meyer and/or Sano in the right deal, but I'm not sure there is a player available that would be worth those prospects. Perhaps I am overrating them... Guys like Gordon, Stewart, Thorpe are great prospects to have in the system but they really don't have much trade value because they are so far from the majors, and they certainly won't move the needle much if the Twins are trying to get a really good major league player in return.
  15. drjim
    Trades are fine but you also have to move prospects with actual value rather than repeat a theoretical position that is close to meaningless in reality. 29 other GMs are aware of the tough road for prospects too. It limits the opportunities beyond the handful of elite prospects.
  16. drjim
    Smart move by Friedman to jump ship when it was clear the Rays are going to continue to fade. He keeps his reputation intact and his successor is the one who looks bad during the down years trying to rebuild the franchise. Sort of like what MacPhail did to Ryan.
  17. drjim
    I guess I don't understand why people are so offended when Terry Ryan publicly says he wants to compete, even when he realizes it probably isn't going to happen.
  18. drjim
    In my mind, the replay system should be almost exclusively the domain of umpires - if they want to take another look let them. Give each manager one challenge (that is conserved if they are correct) that has to be used within seconds of the play ending.
  19. drjim
    Give it the specific letter grade you want but BA has 7 drafts graded better, 2 the same, and 20 graded worse. Obviously could always pick better players in hindsight but that strikes me as acceptable considering they picked in the 20s.
  20. drjim
    And it was still probably a top 10 best draft in all of baseball. Says something about the draft and the expectations people should have.
  21. drjim
    2 and 3 might not be compatible. That is pretty much the crux of the debate. And unless they dump Arcia or Vargas, not sure what else you would proactively want done for 1. For LF they already have adequate defensive options on the roster, if they go the FA route there isn't a clear two way player that would represent much of an offensive upgrade.
  22. drjim
    Big difference is that there is no player (or contract) really blocking Rosario at the moment. He'll have to really show in spring training though, off the field concerns and not touching AAA yet won't get him the benefit of the doubt. Plus there is still a good chance the Twins sign a FA OF of some sort.
  23. drjim
    GIbson, Milone and May all have at least one option left. They'll give Pelfrey all the chances they can to make the team, but it will likely be in the bullpen, if at all. There is plenty of room to add a starter or two. I doubt a new pitching coach will do as much as people think.
  24. drjim
    He absolutely has a shot to break camp with the Twins. Certainly wouldn't bet on it though.
  25. drjim
    That's a lot to give up for a reliever. Betances can't "easily move into a starting role" because he has failed at it multiple times over many years.
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