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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I don't think, publicly subsidized stadiums or not, that we have a right or deserve to have baseball games over broadcast television. What I do think is that there has to be some sort of way to get content than through either cable or direct tv. I am willing to pay a decent amount of money for the ability to watch baseball, but I really don't have much interest in paying for cable, especially in the months when there is no baseball. I know that is all part of the price, but also why I think there might be some sort of bubble developing, I'm not sure the cable model remains viable as increasing numbers of people opt out.
  2. drjim
    It implies no such thing. Sustainable success doesn't mean to be .500, it means to go into the majority of seasons with a realistic shot to compete for a playoff berth. Once in the playoffs good things can happen.
  3. drjim
    I think the bolded part is the heart of this debate. You make it seem like a team doesn't need a few years to rebuild. Are you sure? Can you think of teams that drop as much as the Twins in 2011 and come right back to sustained competitiveness? That is an assertion that seems to fly in the face of history of the past 20 years. Teams with significantly higher payrolls than the Twins might be able to shorten the cycle or cover up mistakes, but middle market teams will generally go in cycles. Some pain now for hopefully sustained success in the future. Throwing money at the issue might result in an emotionally satisfying more wins in the short term, but no more guarantee of success in the short term and certainly the long term.
  4. drjim
    You're tired of this? I would argue the Twins haven't done nearly enough of this. Too much signing of mediocrity with the intention of keeping them.
  5. drjim
    It is an interesting bubble we are seeing right now. I don't fault baseball for taking the most money, but the cost of rights is being passed onto premium TV providers which is in turn driving people away from premium TV. Something will have to give, but sports is also one of the few extremely valuable entertainment properties because it is one of the few things that has to be consumed live. I wish I could watch the playoffs, but it certainly doesn't impact how much I care about the sport. I doubt it has much impact of fandom across the country either.
  6. drjim
    Disagree with this thinking. If he is good and they have other breaks they might be able compete. Or if he is good and (more likely) they aren't competing he can be flipped or extended. If he is bad it buys some development time. All strike me as positive outcomes. Nothing wrong with trying to sign talented players for next year while maintaining roster and payroll flexibility going forward.
  7. drjim
    I didn't bother because it would be wins and losses.
  8. drjim
    What do you see as your top accomplishments in your second stint as GM?
  9. drjim
    If you don't like Ryan of course it can be true. Good moves/picks when Ryan was GM don't count because they are under the direct supervision of someone else. Bad moves/results are a bad reflection on Ryan and count against him. Good moves by Bill Smith don't count. But bad moves under Smith do count against Ryan because Ryan was still in the organization and OKed every move that was made, especially the bad ones. Actual development doesn't count, only who was in charge when the player was acquired, unless it was Ryan, then it was the Scouting Director or draft position or something else that deserves the credit.
  10. drjim
    Does anyone have any proof of this assertion or is it just assumed? There is a massive difference between staying in the organization and providing some recommendations versus OKing player acquisitions.
  11. drjim
    This would a reasonable goal in my mind. And I don't even think it would necessarily take a hyper aggressive offseason, just a reasonable starter and of. I think going in with potential .500 talent leaves open the possibility of surprise contention if a few things break right - notably a Mauer rebound and better than expected performance from young guys (less regression).
  12. drjim
    I think this article shows just how frickin' hard it is to rebuild pitching that had collapsed up and down the organization. It took until now to finally build up pitching depth going into a season. The idea that a couple of free agent signings (especially considering the options after 2012) and trading a few solid (but not elite) CFs would do the trick overnight seems a little ambitious. Doesn't quite work that way. I personally look at it is this way, after 3 years of rebuild the Twins have rebuilt the farm system, have some actual pitching depth, have seen some young players emerge on to the mlb roster with others that will follow this year, are not saddled with many crippling contracts, have some payroll space. To people who think he should be gone, which is fine as far as that is concerned, make two big mistakes. They vastly understate the problems of the franchise at the conclusion of 2011 and vastly overstate the ease in which a franchise can be rebuilt. I guess if Ryan was fired I wouldn't really care that much (though I think he should stay), but I'm not exactly convinced that a different GM would have brought them to a better place by this point.
  13. drjim
    And I'm pretty much the same way. So perhaps I'm the fool here, not willing to admit what the owners are doing right in front of my face. I just don't buy it. My take is that it is important for them to be profitable, but that do put the goal of winning a championship at the very least second. They just might engage in that pursuit in a way that people don't agree with.
  14. drjim
    Actual facts are probably important here - payroll in 2012 started the season over $100 mm, so it was more or less a representative payroll for the first three years of Target Field. It really has only been the last two seasons that it dipped into the $80s, which coincided with an expected (in my mind) decrease as they more fully committed to the rebuild and started playing younger players who were making the minimum. Also the reason that next year will likely be in the $80s as well, the amount of guys making the minimum.
  15. drjim
    Off what books? No one in public sees them anyways. Probably a good proxy is revenue sharing and competitive balance picks, as mlb has a formula for how this is determined. The Twins have shifted from paying into revenue sharing to now receiving revenue sharing and being eligible for competitive balance picks. To see what the realistic payroll is, I would line up all payrolls and put the Twins at the 15-20 range. Obviously below that this year, as the Twins themselves admitted, but it certainly isn't some massive amount, probably around $95-105 mm.
  16. drjim
    How do you know 52 is a cap? How do you know they won't stretch it when the time comes? Are you certain 2011 didn't represent a year that stretched the 52 a little?
  17. drjim
    I'll ask an honest question here - if you believe this, how in the world can you invest any time or energy to following this team? It certainly won't change as long as the Pohlads are owners.
  18. drjim
    It does seem that if Mientkiewicz is passed over that moving to AA makes a lot of sense. Give him a little bit more experience as a manager and then move him up to the mlb staff. This plan especially makes sense if Molitor gets the job.
  19. drjim
    I agree with this. I thought it was a very good trade (for both teams) at the time and it made sense for Oakland to go all in this season as they realistically had a two year window before needing to seriously retool. I was much more skeptical of the Cespedes-Lester trade. I would have played for two years instead of a potentially marginal upgrade for this year at the loss of value next year.
  20. drjim
    Yes. Escobar has some value but like you said he can't be the centerpiece to get a mid-rotation starter.
  21. drjim
    How soon you forget that Justin Jones was used to acquire Craig Monroe for the right to overpay him because the Twins screwed up the arbitration paycut rules. It was such an unnecessary trade. If I remember right, a big driving force was Gardy not wanting to deal with sitting someone out of the Stewart/Jones/Morneau/Mientkiewicz group each night.
  22. drjim
    Plouffe is a legit 3B this year and probably has a couple relatively similar years in him. But I absolutely would trade him for value in the OF or SP. And I agree on your SP thoughts. They are in a position, now that they have some depth in the minors, to try a buy low high upside guy like Masterson and perhaps someone like Brett Anderson if the price is right.
  23. drjim
    Then I assure you you will be OK with the offseason in regards to Plouffe. They absolutely are not dumping him for a minor leaguer. Why wouldn't they be able to get a legit LF (or SP) for a legit 3B? There are actually a lot of teams that could potentially use Plouffe - NYY, Bos, Bal (if Hardy leaves and Machado goes to SS), Atl?, Phil?, Mil?, StL (depending on how it shakes out), Pit (if Alvarez moves to 1B), Cin, LAD, SF, perhaps more.
  24. drjim
    To build on this point some more, 3B might be where Dozier ultimately ends up once Polanco comes up and Sano moves to the OF. They could start the season with Santana/Escobar/Nunez/possibly part time 3B stopgap manning the position, with Sano getting first shot and then shuffling a little once Polanco is ready. Take a little hit on offense but would be potentially a very solid defensive infield.
  25. drjim
    But what if they trade Plouffe for a CF or SP? They wouldn't trade Plouffe for prospects.
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