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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    My theory on the Twins is that they are more savvy on statistical matters (like shifts) than people give them credit for, mostly because they don't talk about it. I would also not hesitate to say that although Gardy does shift he is not fully bought in and there has not been as great a top down synergy between talent brought in and how it is utilized by the major league staff when compared to a franchise like Pirates There is also an obvious talent gap, which is still the biggest issue, and we have also witnessed the Twins get burned by bringing pitchers from the NL to the AL, while the Pirates have benefitted from bringing pitchers from the AL to the NL. Lots of moving parts here
  2. drjim
    One of these is not like the other.
  3. drjim
    St. Peter has been president since 2002. Some would say as soon as he took over the position the team started a decent run.
  4. drjim
    Are you sure he's not competitive? Or that he doesn't have an ego? The role of an owner is to hire good people, set a solid budget and get out of the way. He does the last, the second isn't an issue at the moment, and his actions this offseason will shed some light on the first.
  5. drjim
    Or perhaps with a different pitching coach? Or a more strategic shift. I wonder if perhaps the biggest difference between the Pirates and Twins org is a disconnect between what the FO knows in regards to acquiring talent and how it is executed on the field. Gardy does shift but as stated he doesn't seem fully committed. I don't buy the Twins haven't changed narrative, but I would certainly agree that Gardy hasn't 100% embraced it or that it is as systematically implemented as an organization like the Pirates.
  6. drjim
    Saying Gardy hasn't changed isn't really backed by examples of defensive shifting and lineup construction, which is 2 of the 3 examples cited. And bullpen management struck me as pretty much exactly the same as what the Angels did. So, Gardy pretty much did the same as Scoscia, just didn't have the article to publicly state it.
  7. drjim
    I know this is a hypothetical but an interesting fact is that these types of incentives are not allowed, presumedly for the exact reason you bring up. Only incentives allowed are playing time - IP, PA, games finished, games started, etc.
  8. drjim
    They are probably the best combination of solid floor and still something to dream on from that list. The rest are either really raw with upside tools or are low ceiling guys that are there for depth. Of course that is still valuable in this range, other teams (and past Twins farms) would have those guys in the teens. Overall this depth has to be really encouraging. I was thinking there were a handful of guys from the 31-40 list I thought were low (Melotakis and Cederoth) but a perfectly good argument can be made for all the people on this list ahead of them.
  9. drjim
    You really can't develop more quick twitch (or at least in a significant way) but you can certainly make up for it in other ways such as great hands/arm, intelligent positioning, etc. Way too early to worry about moving off SS but wouldn't be surprised if he starts getting some reps at 2B in Cedar Rapids.
  10. drjim
    I would never compare a rookie to a hall of famer but I think you are on to something. He has a strong hit tool and that will generally play up, especially someone with his athleticisim. His K rate is certainly high but not absurd. He obviously needs to bump the BB rate a little as well, but he does has a base of skills to work from. What is most encouraging to me is that he hasn't dropped off as he has gotten around the league, in fact he has had very strong months in August and September.
  11. drjim
    I see record as an extremely quick and dirty look at how a pitcher pitched that season on a game in game out basis. Says something about individual games that can be lost when looking at the cumulative stats and can be a quick comparative across players and seasons, but not nearly as good as FIP, xFIP, ERA + and -, and others like those. Gibson is a great example, has mediocre cumulative season stats but W-L shows that he was good a little over half the time, which is close to accurate, and that he had some value this season that might be lost in cumulative stats. And I still think innings is the most important stat for a starting pitcher.
  12. drjim
    He's right about Goodell, but a good rule of thumb is not to threaten your bosses.
  13. drjim
    I would add another perspective. My uncle and cousin are renewing their season tickets (1/2 season) for about the 20th consecutive year. That is a lot of ugly baseball they have sat through and they are still going strong. I don't think they will ever give up their tickets and I suspect that there is some baseline number that the Twins will draw no matter how bad they get. This is probably around 10,000 full season equivalents, perhaps a little more and I think they will get pretty close to that. I do think they have a shot to regain a little bit of their ticket mojo next year. It will matter not what they do in the offseason (though a manager change could help initiate a narrative), but would begin with a decent start out of the gates, young players (especially Sano and Buxton) emerging in the middle, and being relatively competitive through the middle of September. Gorgeous summer days with a representative team that is flirting with competing and exciting young players will bring out fans. And if they are doing this, it won't matter how they market it.
  14. drjim
    Or you could realize there are only 30 of these jobs in the world, and if he was to voluntarily leave it there is no guarantee that he would ever get one again. I suspect he would, but that is far from a sure thing.
  15. drjim
    And considering the abomination of a Vikings stadium currently being built, we didn't learn the lesson.
  16. drjim
    I agree on everything. The question I originally responded to was where did the additional expenses come relative to the the additional income. I appreciate Part C for providing part of that answer.
  17. drjim
    I didn't say it was a bad deal for them, just money out of their pockets, part of the difference in money spent as revenue goes up. And it has been more than $15-20 mil. And while the value went up that is not tangible money in their pockets right now, while the overage expense is tangible money out of their money that cuts into current year operating income (or it is amortized over some time). I don't really like defending the Pohlads, but spinning things worse than they are is not any better than the spin the Pohlads do themselves.
  18. drjim
    On the bigger points of does owenership realize this and what can they do about it, I think the answers are of course they are and not much. The Pohlads aren't stupid, they have been around business long enough and have enough smart people working for them to realize how bad the situation is. They can read a balance sheet and forecast. The bigger problem is there really is nothing they can do. As stated above the biggest driver of season ticket sales is the previous year. I would guess almost every fan has made up their mind one way or the other. The could sign big time free agents or they could ritually sacrifice Gardy next to the Kirby Puckett statue and it won't move the needle more than a handful of tickets. Two things matter - winning and exciting young players. Without the first they have tried to push the second, but fans are rightly skeptical. They can sign free agents but the fact is that if this new wave doesn't break through with some stars it will be some ugly (or at least mediocre) baseball for a while. It will make fans long for the days when they were getting bounced in the first round.
  19. drjim
    Operations costs did go up significantly. The short answer is that the Twins are solely responsible for running operations at Target Field while Metropolitan Sports Commission (I think that's the name) ran operations at the Metrodome. A couple other things to consider with spending. The Twins actually pumped quite a bit into Target Field in terms of covering overage costs and doing pretty substantial upgrades each of the past two seasons. These have been in the $10-20 million range from what I saw, with overages being much higher. They also have pumped money into the minor league complex in Fort Myers. There was public money but the Twins also spent a lot of their own. They have also spent additional money on complexes in other countries and other upgrades on scouting, etc. It takes some digging but you can find articles on this. This is not to say they aren't making plenty of money, they are, but I also think they are making some good investments that will pay off down the line and will be valuable to be in place when (hopefully) the team is good again and they have their payroll closer to the limit. This extra money is also going to dry up next year with the lost season tickets and the lost sponsors (which is the true catastrophe) and the lost leverage they will have in the next TV deal.
  20. drjim
    I have more confidence in the front office than the coaching staff, but if they wanted to clean house completely I wouldn't be opposed. I also think replacing a manager is much safer than cleaning out a front office. Ryan has a track record and despite the losing I would still argue he has brought a stability to the franchise that was in massive trouble after the 2011 season. This would certainly be an attractive job - a strong farm system, a payroll with few bad contracts and some flexibility, and some emerging young talent.
  21. drjim
    This is my position stated very succinctly.
  22. drjim
    I would push back in two ways. First, production for a senior sign in Low A doesn't mean a whole lot to me. College players, even lower round picks, should beat this league up. It's not his fault he was assigned here and it is his first year, but I wouldn't move him up anywhere considering the pedigree of his tools based on his draft position. This brings me to the second point, when I think of rookie leagues and low a, I am much more interested in scouting reports of tools/stuff than I am about raw numbers, which serves to both put the brakes on an older guy ripping up those leagues and getting down on a younger guy who struggles. High A is where I start focusing more on numbers but it isn't until AA until that is the primary indicator in my mind.
  23. drjim
    Bad talent.
  24. drjim
    Despite the results I wouldn't necessarily call it is a losing culture, this leadership team has had good success in the past and I don't think they became more incompetent. But I would absolutely call it a stale culture. There needs to be some sort of infusion of energy and new ideas/approach. There is a reason that leadership turns over in all aspects of the world. Even good, competent leaders run out their string in a place. And 13 years is a great run.
  25. drjim
    Exactly. The Pirates are good because they drafted McCutheon, were patient with the rest of the system, gave it time to come together, and made some savvy moves to supplement. They'll have a nice run of 3-5 years then cycle back down and hope they can do it again.
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