drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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No real reason for the Twins to trade a MLB player for anything other than a MLB player in return this offseason. I would say one interesting name to consider is Plouffe, but he would only get moved for a MLB pitcher, no reason to trade him for a prospect(s).
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LF is easier than RF. Limited playing time. Overall sketchiness of defensive metrics (which are in the ballpark of Melky Cabrera, someone people have been hankering for).
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Yes, last guy in the bullpen. But making the minimum and still has options.
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Is Aaron Hicks burning bridges, or just on borrowed time as a Twin?
drjim replied to jokin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You are free to think this, but it doesn't work this way (in any aspect of life). Peers will always have more influence on this than authority figures. -
Play him 4-5 times a week in LF and his defense will be fine.
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I'm on the minimal free agent plan. Don't guarantee multiple years to any of them, mostly because so few are worth that, and they can get similar production from one year flyers. Returning most of a mediocre bullpen would uninspiring to say the least. There are finally some live arms in the system, give them some run.
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I would turn over at least 4 guys from the current pen. Perkins, Fien, Pressly can stay. Let the other young guys battle it out. Move on from Burton, Duensing, Swarzak. Don't understand the love for Thielbar.
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It would probably take 4 years to overpay Miller. Is that something you want to do?
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Is Aaron Hicks burning bridges, or just on borrowed time as a Twin?
drjim replied to jokin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is one reason I want the Twins to be strategic with the FA LF that they sign. I want to make sure they sign a veteran professional as much as they need to sign the absolutely best statistical guy. I think the idea of "chemistry" is overrated, but I think there is something to having veterans that younger players can learn from in all parts of the team. -
So AAA doesn't count?
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A conversation on here veered way beyond reality? Perish the thought.
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Pinto has caught plenty this year. I certainly would be in favor of him catching more, but the Twins aren't going to bench regular players either. I thought it would be more 40/60, but it will probably end up more 30/65/5, with a DH start or two. My primary complaint would be if Fryer caught an excessive amount, but if he ends up at one start and 4 PAs, that seems to be a minor quibble.
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It does seem that Pinto's actual talent level at catching doesn't enter into this conversation as often as it should.
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Right or wrong, it seems Gardy doesn't want to catch Pinto against a team competing for a playoff berth. I think he'll get two games against Arizona and a game against Detroit after they clinch.
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A good analysis will capture this. Much more value in the 5 wins that move a team from 85 to 90, than from 65 to 70 or 95 to 100.
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I would say quite confidently that NFL owners do much better than MLB owners.
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I think that is probably the wrong way to think of it. Isn't the money value of players based upon changing production into monetary value and then dispersing that to each player as some function of their total WAR. Wouldn't it be more accurate to say some players are "screwed" and others get paid way more than they are worth? I think the only way players are "screwed" is if the owners pocket an obscene amount relative to their salaries. While I'm sure they could get paid more, I'm not sure this is the case.
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Interesting work, thanks for doing it. Two thoughts jump out at me: 1. I'm not sure I would add previous value to a contract that is signed. I would be most interested in the value of each contract in a vacuum. It is interesting to see the value of each player over their career, but as the Twins consider signing a free agent value provided before the free agent contract doesn't really matter (with the caveat that I realize you are doing an analysis far beyond what it means for the Twins). 2. I would still argue that with very few exceptions, there is a reason that pitchers that sign extensions will generally provide more value than straight free agents. In short, there is a reason that teams lock up certain pitchers and let other pitchers walk. I think that you analysis shows that.
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There is a common denominator there as well - Boras guys signing with the Yankees. Rumors aside that is my prediction for Scherzer too and I would assume some sort of opt out as well. A virtually impossible contract for 25-27 teams in MLB to sign.
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Silva was a mid six figure International Free Agent. Does seem a little aggressive.
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For the record I appreciated what you meant, it just didn't strike me as a viable alternative. I second the expanded explanation that was given in reply.
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Thanks for breaking that down. Greinke is obviously still too early, and while Lee had a good run but he is breaking down before it is over. Either way, not a good track record and really tough for a mid market team to risk, especially when there is still some distance to being a legitimate contender.
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You strike me as someone who would be aware of the history of 6-8 year contracts for pitchers. People have been making the same arguments you just did to convince themselves to keep signing these disasters. It is 100% about the years, and is exactly the reason mid-market teams like the Twins don't lock themselves into contracts like that
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Why would Scherzer take $90 mil when he wants $150-160?
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This is much more acceptable if the Twins were surefire contenders the next three years. Otherwise you really risk extended mediocrity by pumping up the team in the next year or two when they probably won't be ready to make the playoffs, and then you roster a declining player while the rest of the roster is (ideally) improving. You can't expect the Twins to just swallow 15-20% of their payroll space. The main issue is that Shields (or whoever) is mediocre (but not terrible and not injured) in the later years and the Twins keep running him out when they have a better option in the minors or they would possibly be able to sign a better free agent for the next season.
