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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I think this gets down to the actual value of prospects and what they can get in return. Generic things like "prospects are overvalued" doesn't really say much. In a sense they are, but in a sense they really aren't. The top prospects (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Berrios) are valued (rightly) very high, but guys like Stewart, Gordon, Thorpe, Polanco, even though they will be highly ranked in the offseason, really aren't going to bring back much in return because they are far from the majors, and a team that is rebuilding, like the Twins, are wise to keep them in their system instead of flipping them for a year or two of a corner OF. Guys ranked lower than that are guys that get half a season of a bit piece at the deadline or maybe a full year of a guy with a little too big a contract (or are third pieces of a bigger trade). Trade a prospect for a player? OK fine, sounds good in a vacuum, but what does this actually look like to you? To get a legitimate player that has more than a year of control, it starts with one of the big 4 and then needs another couple of guys as well.
  2. drjim
    I like the casualness of stating "I would consider dealing for a C, SS, CF, 3B, SP". The Twins and every other team in baseball... And the "I would settle for Shields". That is good stuff. Good to know you would settle for a top 20-30 starter in the game.
  3. drjim
    I think Scherzer and Lester are wishful thinking for a team in the Twins revenue class, don't want Cabrera or Cruz (for the contracts they'll get), don't think Markakis gets to free agency. Beyond that I would certainly be on board with this plan. I do think Ramirez gets a mildly shocking contract. I endorse Martinez. I would go after Tomas. I do think Latos could be had, but not sure what it would take. I highly endorse the Dodgers idea. I still would be hesitant to move a top ten prospect this offseason other than Rosario, and I don't think he has much value. The exception would be for a starter to control for at least three years.
  4. drjim
    I would say beyond wishful thinking. He almost certainly won't remain on the 40 man.
  5. drjim
    I certainly agree with this. And I would take it further and say that if they don't go for a really good pitcher, they shouldn't bother. They have plenty of 3, 4, 5 guys ready to pitch.
  6. drjim
    Not resigned. I think Gardy is out after the year.
  7. drjim
    You misremember. No one would have written at this point last year the Twins had a set option at C (2nd catcher to split time with Pinto), SS, LF, CF, DH, or 3-4 rotation spots. They might have suggested short contracts at a couple of those spots to not block top prospects, but not that they were set. This is progress. I also think you are mistaken in your next two paragraphs, but that is a matter of taste. Most teams in baseball improve via internal improvements, not through significant offseason additions.
  8. drjim
    I don't think Nick said there were no holes (he never uses the word "hole"), but I think the point is that they have a guy in place at 8 positions and most of the rotation/bullpen to start the season. No real reason to put words in his mouth.
  9. drjim
    I agree with being patient with the LF market, but strongly disagree with the pitching analysis. They have plenty of room to add to the rotation. Don't think they'll go for Lester or Scherzer, but everyone else in a pretty good crop should be fair game. Though I will add they should go big or not bother, they have plenty of backend guys. They should also turn over about half the bullpen. Many of the replacements can come internally, but nothing wrong with going after another reclamation project or two. Perkins and Fien should be the only givens - no reason to bring back Duensing and Swarzak and they can upgrade on Thielbar pretty easily. Burton and Deduno gone, with Pressly and/or Pelfrey acting as the long man. So in summary: 1. Go big on SP (ahem Shields) 2. Sign a LF, but wait out the market and be comfortable with internal guys if absolutely necessary 3. Turn over half the bullpen
  10. drjim
    Haven't they already auditioned Parmelee and moved on?
  11. drjim
    I would say with pretty high confidence that they are quite aware of all Cuban players and have scouted as extensively as any other team. I base this assumption on the work they do overall in the international arena. Doesn't mean they are right in their evaluations and certainly doesn't mean they shouldn't splurge on occasion, but the issue isn't a failure to give it a "fair shot".
  12. drjim
    Perhaps they have seen enough of Burdi to know he is good and are thinking of pursuing this strategy. It would be disappointing if it was someone other than these two.
  13. drjim
    The eternal optimist in me hopes the Gophers can get to this sooner rather than later.
  14. drjim
    I think the primary problem with the NBA is that I live in Minnesota near this fiasco of a franchise.
  15. drjim
    I'm certainly in favor of innovation, especially the ones that work out. I think it is really overstated that the Twins are the "last" to embrace these advances, they are definitely more middle of the pack, but I certainly agree they aren't cutting edge - at least on the items that have gone mainstream, but it is not like they are unwilling to embrace and implement information. One thing I think about the Twins regarding this, is that they should know who they are and do it the best. If they merely copy more innovative franchises, they will be the same but worse and late. They should leverage their own strengths and I think they do - they are a stable franchise that promotes from within, they are very strong in scouting (especially internationally), they have rebuilt their development apparatus, they do some unique things in the draft that may turn up value (college relievers into starters), etc.
  16. drjim
    Berrios is on pace for mid to late 2015 he keeps pitching as he has (and avoids injury).
  17. drjim
    The Twins are certainly more conservative and risk adverse than the White Sox.
  18. drjim
    So you see no difference between letting a prospect that emerged (somewhat surprisingly) and making the minimum versus committing 8 figures a year? If the Twins had Abreu, they wouldn't really have room for Vargas at this point. Which would be a good problem to have, but also part of the calculus of why you don't want to lock up 1B and DH for the next 5 years. This isn't to say I wouldn't want Abreu or I'm happy they didn't sign him, just probably an easy explanation of why they weren't especially interested in a 1B at that price at that time.
  19. drjim
    I thought that was assumed, not questioned, agreed to, and had nothing to do with the arbitrary end point comment. But yes, look closer at how the Cardinals do it. Amazing organization.
  20. drjim
    A trade scenario that seems more likely for the Twins and Nolasco would be for one of the Dodgers OFs - Kemp or Ethier, with money or prospects changing hands to balance. It would be a bad contract for bad contract, but could fill the LF position. Then reinvest in another FA pitcher (or two). That would be my ideal offseason for the Twins.
  21. drjim
    While true they haven't tanked, they also had dry spells in the mid to low 70s wins in the last 15 years. Natural cycles of baseball. They are a very good organization, I don't think anyone would argue with that, nor have they. But we have also seen that their lieutenants that were hired haven't exactly done great elsewhere. Beane is a great GM (maybe the best ever), but I suspect if he turned down the Red Sox he probably won't come here. And I'm not sure why you brought up the Cards.
  22. drjim
    I can't really remember this happening with other teams. And, of course, it hasn't happened here either (yet). Unique trade, smart for a bigger market rebuilding team with some extra money to burn.
  23. drjim
    I suspect the Twins knew they were moving a $23 mil a year player to that position. I'm curious what other teams were doing if it was so obvious. The knock on Abreu was concerns about his ability to handle premium velocity. He started out as a great power source, high k, lower bb. Last month he has been high average, lower power, decreasing ks, increasing bbs. Will be interesting to see what type of player he ultimately becomes next year and going forward.
  24. drjim
    Fun with arbitrary end points? If you took the Twins from 2001-2010 they would compare favorably to almost every team in baseball playing under the same salary constraints that you laud for these two teams. That was my point, take a team at the crest of their wave and they look good, especially compared to teams that are at a low point. We'll see if the shine is just as good in two years for the A's and Rays, I have my doubts. Doesn't mean the front office got dumb, just meant that they will suffer from the same cycles that strike any other team. The Cards, as you mentioned, are the exception. That is where I would look.
  25. drjim
    Interesting concept, picking up money to get an upgrade in the rotation. Upton is not good.
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