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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    We do know, and his hands were absolutely tied his entire first tenure. The economics of baseball changed after the 1994 strike. Why do you think MacPhail left?
  2. drjim
    He did bungle it but it wasn't a catastrophe. Hunter resulted in 2 first rounders and Santana still had value to move. My biggest complaint is the half baked sell off at the deadline. He should have kept everyone or moved everyone (as was mentioned, Twins were only 6 games out and had a history of coming back in previous years). Muddling in the middle was a terrible idea and left Smith in a bad spot - that is absolutely on Ryan.
  3. drjim
    Bill Smith signed Mike Lamb (and Adam Everett).
  4. drjim
    I'm not opposed to throwing a minor league vet a bone, but the priority absolutely has to be giving the vast majority of reps to players that could potentially help next year. Pinto, Herrmann, Hicks and whatever relievers need to get a look. Probably about time to move away from Fryer, Parmelee, Duensing, Burton, Swarzak, Deduno.
  5. drjim
    You aren't using the Sid Hartman story for the first quote are you?
  6. drjim
    Nick hit it big time, a preliminary PST VII nomination on Twitter!
  7. drjim
    In my opinion the biggest contribution of Ryan to the current mess was not the farm system atrophying, that is over stated as there was still some talent on the farm and young pieces on the mlb roster, but the fact he didn't provide better resolution to the Hunter and Santana situations at the 2007 deadline. He had an opportunity to move guys that weren't going to stay and punted, did a half baked sell job instead, and limped to mediocre a finish leaving Smith in a tough spot to begin his tenure.
  8. drjim
    If the Pohlads decide to let Ryan go, it would be an absolute stunner to replace him internally. I'm pretty confident they won't let him go, but maybe the drop in season tickets forces the issue.
  9. drjim
    A September callup will mean nothing in regards to starting the season in the rotation.
  10. drjim
    You're much too kind to Duensing, and how did you not mention Fryer? But I suspect your list (other than Pelfrey) will be accurate when it is time to make the decision, and I would add Duensing, Fryer, Ibarra and Milone, possibly Pino and also Schafer if they can't come to an agreement (they won't go to arb with him).
  11. drjim
    Davis is under contract for next year.
  12. drjim
    I suspect concern about the total payroll is immaterial as long as it approved by ownership. What probably makes Ryan uncomfortable is having over 40% of the payroll locked up in two players and going over 4 (or possibly 5) years for a pitcher.
  13. drjim
    I would say be careful with recency bias. Shifts are based on the data from many, many at bats. They make more extra outs than they lose. The key is to stick with it and not let a couple of fluke plays sway the usage.
  14. drjim
    I certainly agree with this take. I think the key is that Ryan can go big this offseason, he just can't go Scherzer or Lester big. It would be pretty uninspiring if he patched with a couple of low level guys. I'm not impressed with the LF options, but there are a couple of pitchers worth considering. Scherzer turned down a 6/144 offer, I bet he gets at least 7/175, maybe 8/200. That is a lot of cheese for a mid-market revenue team to invest in one pitcher.
  15. drjim
    They aren't low, but they are a below the median revenue team. They can play with big time free agents, but not the biggest, especially if NY, Boston, LA are involved. And yes they can fit it for the next handful of years, but we are taking at least 6, probably 7, and possibly 8 for the two guys you mentioned. They don't have the financial ability to easily eat that mistake if it turns out poorly on the back end.
  16. drjim
    I also think Scherzer and Lester are going to get at least 7 years, which makes the window of when the can really spend a little trickier to navigate on the back end. SS upgrades can be a little tricky.
  17. drjim
    Based on comp balance pick they earned this year, Twins are in the bottom half of revenues/market combination, somewhere in the 16-18 range. The franchises mentioned make more on their TV deals than the Twins do in all avenues combined. Technically the Twins can spend whatever they want, but if the biggest markets want a guy I don't think the Twins can responsibly hang. You can certainly think differently and ignore the basic revenue realities, but you are setting yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment.
  18. drjim
    For some reason I remember Gardy making comments like this in 2010 when a similar slow roller was in front of Orlando Hudson and Gardy made a comment about Hudson playing too deep, even though it was a LH pull hitter so the positioning made sense. Just another "bleep happens" type of play that happens on occasion, especially with a shift, that was, as Dozier said, the smarter percentage play. My uninformed speculation is that Gardy is a skeptic of the shift in general, and this was a passive aggressive way to complain about it, probably stemming from a second consecutive game being blown late.
  19. drjim
    I certainly agree with this and want the Twins to go big on a pitcher. It just won't be Scherzer or Lester, because the Twins revenue situation doesn't really allow them to outbid NY, Bos, LA for the premium free agent that those franchises covet.
  20. drjim
    You should stop this. Scherzer is going to Boston, New York or LA. The Twins have money, but not nearly as much as those franchises. Plenty to criticize Ryan about, but getting outbid by them really shouldn't be one of them.
  21. drjim
    Thanks for clarifying, this states it better. The Twins can certainly get a pretty good (non salary dump) player if they give up one of the guys you mentioned. The guys that have been mentioned (ie Rosario/Benson) aren't going to bring much back, certainly not a "good" player, unless you have a pretty liberal definition of what that means.
  22. drjim
    Actually you can. That is how farm systems work. It shows why people can't trade (EDIT: I should clarify, can't trade solely prospects to get multiple great players) for multiple great players or why established guys with more than two years of control rarely get traded (EDIT: for just prospects). I was also responding to the very specific guys that were mentioned. The Twins have four guys with a lot of value, a second tier that will be ranked high but not have a ton of value now because they are too far away, and then depth guys. Each of those tiers have value in some sense, but depth guys (who everyone wants to trade) just don't bring back as much as we think they will. They get guys for a year, maybe two.
  23. drjim
    I'll take these in order. Rosario was barely a top 100 guy on some lists, not top 100 on others and had barely reached AA and not done a ton there while still not really having a position. Nice prospect but really not going to get you a whole lot. Maybe a year or two or a corner that is priced too high. Depending on what veteran or other piece, I would argue not nearly as much as you think. Benson also would have gotten you very little. Guys like him (and Rosario) are the second or third piece of a big trade, or can get moved for a year of a non elite player. Are you really lamenting that the Twins did not do that? For a Twins comparison, you couldn't trade Rosario or Benson at that point and even get a player like Plouffe - slightly above average about to hit arb 2. You would barely get a half year of Suzuki. I would like to go back in time and deal Rosario for a player you mentioned, but it would not have been possible. He isn't worth that (of course depending on your definition of "good"). You can't on the one hand claim that prospects are overrated and then on the other hand demand that they are traded and expect them to bring back more than is possible, and then call out Terry Ryan for not doing what is actually, in fact, impossible. If anyone is overrating prospects here, it is you.
  24. drjim
    Fair enough, flip C and 1B, but the point still stands. I don't think Florimon was ever thought of as a set answer, perhaps a body that was acceptable until a replacement was found, but not someone who couldn't be replaced. Just an overall lack of options. Who was the other corner other than Arcia? And yes, people (like me) were arguing against signing a long term CF but certainly weren't opposed to a stopgap, just acknowledged the fact that player didn't actually exist. So yes, I think there is a misremembering of what people were saying at this time last year.
  25. drjim
    I'll buy Rosario to a limited extent, but those other guys really aren't bringing anything back of substance. Depth guys that are third pieces to a trade or might get you a year of an overpriced corner bat.
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