drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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I'm more or less OK with most of the names that have been mentioned - Allard, Tate, Tucker, Cameron, Bregman. All have strengths and weaknesses, but should be a decent addition to the system.
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Bleep it, how about another. And we have some agreement here! http://m.mlb.com/news/article/127315572/vandys-swanson-headlines-latest-mock-draft MLB.com, BA, Law, Kiley are the four sources I would turn to.
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Another day, another mock, another guy the Twins are on. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-4-0/
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My observation on Law is that he gets locked in strongly in a pretty set and narrow view of things (relating to baseball) and takes a long time to move off this opinions. This can be good and bad. I like a lot of his stuff, but I get a little annoyed with smug interactions, excessive snark and cherry picking data to fit narratives I don't find all that compelling. But you take the good with the bad, like anyone.
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It makes no sense to keep Stauffer over anyone in the bullpen once Fien gets back.
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Why do people want to send down Pressly or Tonkin? Outside of Perkins, they are the only relievers that actually strike people out. I have to think Stauffer is going to be DFAed based on usage. Whatever the move, it will show how much pull Molitor has on personnel moves, because no chance he would keep Stauffer over any other reliever.
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I could get behind this if Lucroy proves to be healthy. Might be another offseason move.
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I don't think we disagree all that much on the first point, and the second point is probably more an issue of timing. This type of move would make much more sense in the offseason, or if the Giants have an injury or two in the OF. They aren't going to move a contributing piece to the team for a prospect that might not crack the lineup. Their OF is old but it is still functional for the season. They are trying to win a championship, not reload their farm system or plan for next year.
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What Can We Expect From the #6 Pick
drjim replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It depends. If it's a poor pick and you want to criticize the GM, it was probably the GM who made the selection. If it was a good pick and you want to criticize the GM, it was probably the scouting director. It if was a good pick and you want to praise the GM, it was the GM. And if it was a bad pick but you still want to praise the GM, it was the scouting director.- 17 replies
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- 3
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- barry bonds
- derek jeter
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I have one crazy hope for the Twins and international signing. It is widely thought that there are two more years under the current system before an international draft is instituted (for better or worse). I doubt the Twins will go past their cap this year once the dust settles, but there could be an opportunity. A handful of the big spending orgs are going to blow their cap and combined with the teams that did so last year there will be an opportunity for the 16-17 signing period. Most of the big spenders will be ineligible to sign players creating the opportunity to go big one last time. Of course the odds of this lean towards highly unlikely, but that crop is considered much stronger than this year including a generational talent from Venezuela. Maybe they'll stun us all by going big for one player this year and saving it for the big splash next year.
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I think international scouting is by far the strongest competency of the organization relative to the rest of the industry.
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8th inning tie game on the road against the White Sox is the other. But 3 outings out of 23 appearances seems pretty significant.
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I think the other thing the Twins have going for them is that they have the potential to improve the true talent level of the team just through in house additions - Santana, Meyer (as a reliever), improved Vargas and/or Arcia, Pinto if they let him, possibly Buxton/Sano/Berrios/AA reliever(s) in a couple of months, the return of Doug Bernier. So while certainly some regression will take place, perhaps an infusion of talent will raise the floor and soften the bounce enough to really hang around.
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And the good news is that he has plenty of time to work on it and make sure that he doesn't. Because of his background he has always been my personal favorite prospect, great to see him start to put it together. Still has a huge ceiling too.
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To clarify my own criticism of the article, I am not disputing the numbers he cites or (to an extent) the conclusions that he comes to. I was more put off by the overall presentation of the article. I have seen similar analysis done much better here and on Fangraphs as well.
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Sure, I would certainly take Susac, hope that is clear. But at what cost? Giants aren't trading him unless they get a major league contributor, with 3B as the obvious hole. I don't have any interest in trading Plouffe for a marginal, at best, upgrade.
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Suzuki would likely have a higher OPS than he does now if he played as infrequently as Susac. That's the rub with catchers, probably not wise to take their OPS over a small sample and assume they can keep it up over the rigors of catching a full season. So yes, you are making assumptions about Susac and his ability to continue hitting, while catching a much larger workload, that I would not be close to accepting. He has caught only 11 full games so far this year (for comparison, Suzuki has already caught 37). Probably the most underrated aspect of Suzuki by people who look solely at his numbers is his ability to catch almost every day. Not many catchers can do that and few, if any, that would be available in trade.
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I'm not sure people think catcher isn't an issue, more a realization that there aren't real alternatives to be had this year (or most seasons). But yes, there are certainly areas that can provide an offensive upgrade, with DH the most obvious.
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No one would dispute that Susac would be better than Herrmann, but at what cost? It is resource management above all.
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Hmmm, cut and past fail... Deron Johnson I would presume. Might as well at this point.
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And that trend seemed to continue for the rest of the piece.
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I think Arcia is the most likely trade piece to bring back anything of value that they would be open to moving.
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I think for the rest of the season, there are about 20-25 catchers that would be clearly better than Suzuki, with perhaps 10-15 of those representing significantly more than a marginal upgrade. Of that number, 1 is potentially available for a price that would make sense, and even that is unlikely. And I'm also not entirely convinced that Susac would represent an upgrade over Suzuki this year or next if he had to play everyday. I just did a quick and dirty look at catchers, by all means I would be interested in other alternatives, for the sake of discussion. I think people really underestimate how few quality catchers there are in the majors and how difficult it is to upgrade the position.
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It's mock madness today! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-mlb-mock-draft-v2-0/ Has Twins going Tate:
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I'm all for upgrading, just don't see how you do it based on who is out there and available. As was said, Susac is probably the best (only?) opportunity, but the upgrade this year and next is probably minimal and it would cost you Plouffe. I'm personally not interested in that.
