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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Either way, I'm confident he has a plan.
  2. drjim
    Probably because the literal frame you are describing exists primarily in your imagination useful for bludgeoning imaginary foes in this debate. The question always struck me as what were the Dodgers offering beyond De Leon and what should be acceptable to the Twins. The first question is hard to know even with the few clues available. The second question is quite interesting and an enjoyable debate.
  3. drjim
    I'd take him, or Romo or Blanton. They need a vet RH reliever, and all three of them have enough upside that they could be spun at the deadline, especially if they have a small contract.
  4. drjim
    For those wondering, Buehler is #40 and Verdugo #31 on Law's Dodgers list.
  5. drjim
    The implied assumption is that this is as fast as the US could have moved. I'm suggesting it isn't, and that it was a strategic decision to move slower and let the Russians take the vast majority of the casualties while the US could fully mobilize. I'm not saying it's wrong, but the tradeoff was Eastern Europe.
  6. drjim
    I think it was a strategic decision by the US and UK to let Russia take the brunt of the casualties in the West. 90% of Germans who died were killed fighting the Soviets. Not saying it was the wrong decision, but the tradeoff of the delay was saving American and British blood but condemning Eastern Europe to a generation under the Soviet thumb. Of course, the Germans could have killed Hitler and staged a coup, surrendered to the West and flip sides to the West and hold a hard line against the oncoming Soviet horde. In hindsight that would have been the only possible better outcome. As it was, the A-bombs probably was the best of many non-ideal options.
  7. drjim
    To be even more fair, it's Mike's other account.
  8. drjim
    Sure, if he's healthy and producing.
  9. drjim
    Holland signs with the Rockies. 1 year, $7mil guaranteed, up to $14mil in incentives. I would have liked a shot at Holland, but I can see why they passed on him at this price.
  10. drjim
    I wonder if he has evidence for this. Seems like something that could be analyzed deeper. A Shields reference makes me think he remembers outliers. The comp that comes to my mind from reading up on De Leon is Kevin Slowey. Able to have some success, especially initially, but doesn't last especially long.
  11. drjim
    Maybe, but I would much rather go for upside guys than another projected backend guy, even if mlb ready. Perhaps an optimistic way for me to look at it, but the Twins don't have "holes" per se in the rotation, in the sense they have bodies that will fill it out to start the season, and they have some AAA/AA depth, but they really lack impact talent. I'm not sure Stewart does much to remedy their rotation situation in the long run. De Leon certainly would help, but I do wonder if much of his value comes from proximity rather than upside.
  12. drjim
    De Leon strikes me as a classic stats vs scouting/history split. Plus changeup guys with decent command that are a little light on velocity and don't have a great breaking pitch will generally outperform their stuff moving up the minors. They can absolutely make it in the bigs, but they have less margin for error. And I personally am a little concerned with durability. Further narrows the odds.
  13. drjim
    Deficits always matter if you don't control the Presidency.
  14. drjim
    While wrestling with who said what is fun, I never accused you (or anyone else on the planet) of saying that. Those were my words. My point is that there is no reason to be forced into a trade that you don't think is fair value. Perhaps it makes sense to do that for one last, key piece, but it is going to be a long process to reload the farm system. Feeling you have to do something is a recipe for bad moves. If De Leon and Stewart were on the table, which is an if (and frankly, doesn't do it for me anyways), it is not that big of a stretch to find a scenario where they can match that in the future. Dozier's value is probably at its highest right now, but the market demand is probably at the lowest.
  15. drjim
    I think a point that can't be stated enough is that nothing now is not nothing ever. It's not like there are one trade now away from competition in 2 years. Being in a hurry too often lead to bad outcomes.
  16. drjim
    I don't think the last line should have any bearing in how the Twins develop him, but I absolutely agree he should be in AA to start the season and that they shouldn't slow play him.
  17. drjim
    The Twins will RUE the day they turned down such great rotation depth. Maybe they should have done it (I don't think that's enough), but that is way, way overstating the consequence.
  18. drjim
    A good article on why, despite all the bluster, executive orders and votes thus far, Obamacare is not going to be repealed. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/25/maybe-on-obamacare-republicans-should-just-punt.html There will be tweaks, some good and some bad, and a massive tax cut, but the bones will definitely remain.
  19. drjim
    Maybe, but the overall list is from last year and hasn't been updated yet and Groome was a draft pick. Could be #7 though.
  20. drjim
    The overall 100 for mlb.com hasn't been released/updated yet. He could be even higher than 33. And it's a small quibble, but it's #7 RHP, not necessarily pitcher. (Probably only Groome is ahead of him).
  21. drjim
    Have you listened to his podcasts? I consume that more than his writings. He pretty clearly (and self-admittedly) rates RHPs with good changeups and lower velocities higher than most everyone else. Or has a thing for them, if you want to phrase it that way. I don't know about the track record of his analysis though.
  22. drjim
    50/50 chance to win the lottery. You either win or you don't.
  23. drjim
    Sickels is one of the really high ones on De Leon: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/24/14369872/dodgers-trade-pitching-prospect-jose-de-leon-to-rays-for-logan-forsythe
  24. drjim
    Makes sense from his perspective. He is probably the top national guy on De Leon.
  25. drjim
    I think the ranking would suggest Law might agree with you. He'll be by far the highest on Stewart.
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